Will NJ TRANSIT's systemwide monthly rail on-time performance, all causes (not the Amtrak-adjusted figure) be above 90 in November 2026? — Above 90%

- [2026-08-17] NJ TRANSIT's official "Performance by the Numbers" dashboard shows systemwide rail On-Time Performance (All Causes) at 91% for August 2026, with the Amtrak-adjusted figure at 92%. This is the most recent officially published monthly figure. (https://www.njtransit.com/performance) - [2026-08-30] A report on NJ Transit board/committee testimony states Overall NJ Transit rail on-time performance also fell from 88.4% in June to 85.7% in July. Even when incidents attributed to Amtrak were excluded, NJ Transit's rail performance declined, with the adjusted on-time figure falling from 91.9% in June to 88.1% in July. This indicates high month-to-month volatility (June 88.4% → July 85.7% → August 91%, per NJ TRANSIT's own dashboard). (https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/nj-transit-is-a-disaster-and-leadership-doesnt-care-about-your-problems/) - [2026-08-30] NJ Transit reported 787 train cancellations in July, nearly double the 433 cancellations recorded in June, representing 4.3% of the 18,433 scheduled rail trips during the month. (https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/nj-transit-is-a-disaster-and-leadership-doesnt-care-about-your-problems/) - [2026-09-17] NJ TRANSIT announced major scheduled disruptions: Temporary Rail Service Changes from October 11, 2026 to November 14, 2026, as service on all rail lines will experience temporary schedule adjustments for approximately five weeks to accommodate Amtrak's critical work to transfer the final track onto the new Portal North Bridge, including some train consolidations, cancellations, and changed departure times/stopping patterns. (https://villagegreennj.com/infrastructure/njtransit-from-oct-11-nov-14-all-midtown-direct-trains-will-operate-to-from-hoboken/) - [2026-09-17] Regular schedules are expected to resume on Sunday, November 15 – subject to the completion of safety testing. This means roughly the first two weeks of November (through Nov 14) fall within the disruption window, directly overlapping the measurement month in question. (https://villagegreennj.com/infrastructure/njtransit-from-oct-11-nov-14-all-midtown-direct-trains-will-operate-to-from-hoboken/) - [2026-10-01] Separately from the bridge cutover, NJ Transit commuters faced possible delays as Amtrak crews performed work on overhead wires between Rahway and Metropark, which could cause intermittent delays of up to 20 minutes on the Northeast Corridor Line and North Jersey Coast Line. This shows ongoing infrastructure-related disruption risk into early October. (https://newjersey.news12.com/2026/10/01/commuters-face-possible-nj-transit-delays-as-amtrak-performs-wire-work/5pdLsoJ2h3yukSfavkUPTu) - [Historical precedent, 2026] A prior, similar first-phase Portal Bridge cutover (earlier in 2026) produced significant disruption: Day two of major rail service changes for NJ Transit riders went better than Sunday morning, when 27 trains were canceled, with officials citing engineer staffing issues under their collective bargaining agreement. This suggests the current (second) cutover phase carries similar risk of depressing on-time performance. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nj-transit-amtrak-commuters-face-122713967.html) - [2026-09-30/10-02] NJ TRANSIT's travel-alerts page currently lists the Portal North Bridge cutover as the lead/pinned advisory, alongside special event service additions (MetLife Stadium games, concerts), indicating the agency is actively managing elevated disruption risk heading into October-November. (https://www.njtransit.com/travel-alerts-to) - [2026-10-02 reference] NJ TRANSIT's own historical November precedent (a different year, cited for context) shows that the agency's systemwide on-time performance can be particularly vulnerable in November when major infrastructure or operational projects coincide with the month; a 2018 November, for instance, saw a plunge to 82% systemwide amid other works. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/just-71-of-nj-transit-rush-hour-trains-were-on-time-last-month) BOTTOM LINE: The most recent confirmed official figure (August 2026) was 91% all-causes rail OTP, just above the 90% threshold, but July 2026 had fallen to 85.7% amid a cancellation surge, showing high month-to-month volatility. Critically, the Portal North Bridge cutover (Oct 11–Nov 14, 2026) will span roughly the first half of November 2026 and is a historically disruption-prone event (the comparable earlier cutover phase saw mass cancellations and schedule overhauls), creating meaningful downside risk to November's systemwide on-time performance figure. NOT FOUND: An official NJ TRANSIT board-reported or dashboard figure for September 2026 rail OTP (not yet published as of this research); any NJ TRANSIT or Amtrak statement specifically forecasting the expected OTP impact magnitude of the November cutover; confirmation of whether November 2026 OTP data will be released before the market's January 2027 close.

- [2026-04-15] NJ TRANSIT's own April 2026 CEO report shows Rail On-time Performance was 87.5% for the month of March 2026, with 16,351 of 18,677 scheduled trains on time , and the 12-month average comparison for Apr 2024–Mar 2026 was 88.9% in 2025 vs 89.2% in 2026 — both below the 90% threshold. https://content.njtransit.com/sites/default/files/board/edreport/edreport-April-2026.pdf - [2026-04-15] The same report's monthly trend line (12 points covering Apr2024-Mar2025) shows values oscillating between the low‑80s and low‑90s (e.g., a June 2024 low near 83%, two autumn 2024 months above 91%), consistent with a base rate where roughly a third to half of months clear 90% all-causes in a typical year. https://content.njtransit.com/sites/default/files/board/edreport/edreport-April-2026.pdf - [undated, ~2026-09] NJ TRANSIT's public performance page currently reports 91% Rail On-Time Performance (ALL CAUSES) for its most recent posted month (August 2026), with the Amtrak-adjusted figure at 92% — i.e., the all-causes number is already sitting just above the 90% line as of the latest confirmed data point. https://www.njtransit.com/performance - [2025-09-19] The September 2025 CEO report bar charts (2024 vs 2025 comparisons) show rail OTP bands spanning roughly 80.0%–95.1% and 88.1%–93.9% depending on time period, underscoring high month-to-month volatility rather than a stable trend near any fixed level. https://content.njtransit.com/sites/default/files/board/edreport/edreport-September-2025.pdf - [2025-xx] Bloomberg's 2025 investigation found NJ Transit reported its trains were on time 91 percent of the time this summer after accounting for Amtrak issues, 3 percentage points higher than its actual on-time rate — implying actual (all-causes) summer 2025 OTP was roughly 88%, below 90%. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-njtransit-major-delays - [2025-04-15] A joint Amtrak–NJ TRANSIT report stated that remedial infrastructure work greatly contributed to a noticeable decline in similar occurrences over the past several months, as NJ TRANSIT's on-time performance has returned to over 90% , suggesting periods in early-to-mid 2025 did clear the 90% bar. https://media.amtrak.com/2025/04/amtrak-nj-transit-joint-update-report-4-15-25/ - [2024-09-17] A New Jersey Monitor analysis of the full Murphy-era record found NJ Transit has met its monthly on-time performance goal — 94.7% of trains arriving within six minutes of their scheduled time — in only nine months since Murphy took office (since 2018), showing the agency rarely reaches its own higher target, though 90% is an easier bar than 94.7%. https://newjerseymonitor.com/2024/09/17/2024-marked-nj-transits-second-worst-summer-under-gov-murphy/ - [2024-09-17] That same analysis shows summer 2024 all-causes OTP falling to 83.2% in June, 87.8% in July, and 87.1% in August — all below 90% — illustrating that summer/early-fall months (adjacent to the target November window) have recently clustered in the high 80s. https://newjerseymonitor.com/2024/09/17/2024-marked-nj-transits-second-worst-summer-under-gov-murphy/ - [2024-xx] Historically, November is not a "safe" month for NJ TRANSIT: Bloomberg reported that in overall timeliness for the trouble-plagued agency plunged to 82 percent, the lowest for a November since at least 2003 and down from 92 percent a year earlier (November 2018), showing November OTP can swing by double digits year to year depending on weather, infrastructure projects, or crew issues. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/just-71-of-nj-transit-rush-hour-trains-were-on-time-last-month - [2024-xx] A North Jersey Media/AOL review of the Murphy era found NJ Transit's trains arrived on time 91% of the time in 2023, the same as in 2017 , indicating that even in a "good" full calendar year the systemwide average sits only marginally above 90%, with individual months frequently dipping below it. https://www.aol.com/murphy-says-nj-transit-largely-083100717.html - [2026-xx] An independent analysis of NJ TRANSIT's published monthly CSVs (2017–mid-2026) found that on-time percentage behaves close to a random walk month to month, so a fancier model doesn't buy you much over simply assuming the next month resembles recent months — supporting a base-rate approach anchored to the last few observed months rather than strong seasonal adjustment. https://github.com/RayanKhan06/njtransit-rail-forecast BOTTOM LINE: Over the last ~2.5 years NJ TRANSIT's all-causes systemwide rail OTP has bounced between the low-80s and low-90s, with roughly a third to half of individual months clearing 90%, including the most recently reported month (August 2026, at 91%); November has historically been one of the more volatile/risk-prone months (e.g., a 2018 collapse to 82%), so the base rate alone suggests a close-to-even but slightly favorable chance of Yes, contingent on no major fall-season disruption. NOT FOUND: An official NJ TRANSIT board report or press release giving the specific November 2024 or November 2025 all-causes rail OTP figure (the exact monthly values could not be directly confirmed from a primary PDF within the search budget, only inferred from chart data and secondary summaries); also could not confirm any third-party forecast, poll, or prior Kalshi/other market pricing history for this specific contract.

YES means: NJ TRANSIT's official "Performance by the Numbers" dashboard reports systemwide rail On-Time Performance (All Causes) above 90% for November 2026. - [2026-10-02] The most recently confirmed monthly figure, August 2026, already cleared the bar: NJ TRANSIT's dashboard lists Bus OTP and other metrics for August 2026, with the all-causes rail figure at 91% as established by colleagues' research, showing the agency is currently capable of sustaining above-90% performance even amid an active construction year. - [2026-09-18] The second Portal North Bridge cutover is scheduled for a defined, bounded window — "The five-week work window is longer than the first phase of the bridge cutover, which took place over four weeks in February and March" — but it ends well before the month is over, with "NJ Transit expects regular schedules to return on Sunday, November 15, subject to completion of safety testing" , meaning roughly the back half of November (Nov. 15/16 onward, ~15-16 days) should operate on normal, higher-reliability schedules. - [2026-09-18] Officially, trains.com reports "Schedule changes will take effect on Saturday, Oct. 10. NJ Transit will resume its regular schedule on Sunday, Nov. 15, with its first day of full service on Nov. 16." — a hard, pre-committed end date that NJ TRANSIT and Amtrak have publicly held to in planning documents, reducing the chance the disruption bleeds further into the month. - [2026-09-18] Officials explicitly frame the cutover as a capacity reduction rather than a reliability collapse: NJ Transit President and CEO Kris Kolluri said "We're gonna basically go from 48 trains an hour to 18 trains an hour because of the work," implying the strategy is to shrink the schedule (lowering the denominator of scheduled trains) rather than run an unsustainably dense schedule that reliably fails — a dynamic that can keep the percentage of on-time trains (among those still scheduled) comparatively high. - [2026-09-18] Unlike the chaotic first days of Phase 1 (27 cancellations on day one, per colleagues' research), NJ TRANSIT and Amtrak say they have learned from that experience: "Officials say lessons learned from the first phase will help keep the project on track. 'We are able to get all the source material on site, ready, and that's important to make sure this is on schedule,' Kolluri said." This suggests smoother execution this time, with less of the engineer-staffing chaos that marred the opening days of Phase 1. - [2026-09-18] Amtrak's interim president, discussing the fall cutover, emphasized the completed benefit rather than added risk: "a major source of delay on the Northeast Corridor has been largely removed from the operating railroad. In its place is a modern high-level fixed bridge built for the railroad we need today." Once the second track is live on Nov. 16, the century-old swing bridge — a historic chronic cause of delays — is permanently retired, which could structurally improve reliability for the remainder of November compared to prior Novembers. - [2026-02-13] Historical precedent from the comparable Phase 1 cutover shows that even a full month substantially overlapped by the disruption window did not produce a catastrophic OTP collapse: NJ TRANSIT's own April 2026 CEO report shows March 2026 (which included the final two weeks of Phase 1, Feb. 15–Mar. 15) came in at 87.5% all-causes — well above the depths seen in other disrupted months (e.g., the 2018 November low of 82%) and arguably recoverable to above 90% if a comparable fraction of November 2026 is undisrupted. - [2026-09-11] An independent academic analysis of NJ TRANSIT performance data found that "Public discussion often centers on Amtrak, and our research confirms that Amtrak-related disruptions certainly impact on-time performance... But the data also show that NJ Transit faces a separate mechanical reliability challenge that cannot be explained by Amtrak alone." This implies that once the Amtrak-driven Portal work ends mid-November, the remaining non-Amtrak reliability baseline (which produced 91% in August) is the main determinant for the back half of the month, supporting a path back above 90% for the month overall if the first-half dip is not too severe. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path rests on the Portal North Bridge cutover having a hard, publicly committed end date (Nov. 15/16) that leaves roughly half of November under normal operations, combined with NJ TRANSIT's and Amtrak's explicit claims of applying "lessons learned" from the chaotic Phase 1 rollout and recent demonstrated capability (August 2026 at 91%) to keep the monthly all-causes average from collapsing the way it did in disruption-heavy months historically (e.g., November 2018). NOT FOUND: Any NJ TRANSIT or Amtrak statement quantifying the expected OTP percentage impact of the fall cutover specifically (as opposed to capacity/train-count reductions); confirmed day-by-day or weekly OTP data for the ongoing cutover (Oct. 11 onward) that would allow a mid-month trend extrapolation into November.

YES means: NJ TRANSIT's official systemwide rail On-Time Performance, All Causes, as published for November 2026, reads above 90.0%. - [2026-09-18] The finalized plan for the second Portal North Bridge cutover confirms NJ Transit operations will be reduced by about 50% between Newark and New York's Penn Station, while Amtrak will essentially run a weekend schedule seven days a week , a deeper capacity cut than headline "five weeks" framing suggests, directly covering Nov 1–14. - [2026-09-18] The trains.com filing gives concrete frequency cuts for the cutover window: a reduction of Northeast Corridor service from 133 trains to 113… a decrease of North Jersey Coast Line trains from 99 to 87… Morristown Line and Gladstone Branch (148 trains to 139), Montclair-Boonton Line (64 to 60), and Raritan Valley Line (51 to 50) — a systemwide capacity hit that historically correlates with lower OTP because fewer, more consolidated trains each carry more cascading-delay risk. - [2026-09-17] CEO Kolluri confirmed the fall cutover will require a 50% reduction in NJ Transit trains between Newark and Secaucus and a 10% service reduction systemwide , a quantified systemwide hit landing squarely in the first two weeks of the measurement month. - [2026-02-15/16] The first (smaller, four-week) cutover phase's opening weekend produced a sharp OTP shock: NJ Transit's own alerts attributed Sunday's mass cancellations to "originally scheduled crew availability at the time of departure, resulting from the Portal Bridge cutover schedule," reduced regularly scheduled weekday service by 178 trains , with the North Jersey Coast Line hit hardest at 10 cancellations and the Northeast Corridor at 9 — showing the engineer-reassignment mechanism (48-hour bid window under the collective bargaining agreement) is a recurring structural risk, not a one-off, and the fall cutover forces an even larger "total change of a schedule" for all engineers, trainmen and conductors per Kolluri's own description of the mechanism. - [2026-03-16] Even the tail end of the first cutover phase caused fresh disruption rather than a clean return to baseline: on the day scheduled to return to normal service, commuters saw some delays in and out of Penn Station-New York after a train was disabled near Newark , and the prior Friday wire trouble caused chaos… just a day after NJ Transit was touting the opening of the new Portal Bridge — a precedent suggesting the Nov 15 "regular schedule" resumption (itself only "subject to completion of safety testing") could bleed disruption into the back half of November too. - [2026-09-18] NJ Transit is deliberately stacking additional concurrent maintenance into the low-traffic cutover window rather than avoiding it: NJ Transit also will use the period of reduced train traffic to advance other maintenance work… work on the movable bridge at Brielle will begin Oct. 11 and continue for two weeks, with buses replacing trains between Bay Head and Manasquan , plus Port Jervis Line midday bus substitutions — compounding, not isolated, risk to the November OTP figure. - [2025-09 report] An independent economic analysis released this fall found NJ Transit's reliability problems are not solely Amtrak-driven: "Public discussion often centers on Amtrak, and our research confirms that Amtrak-related disruptions certainly impact on-time performance... But the data also show that NJ Transit faces a separate mechanical reliability challenge that cannot be explained by Amtrak alone" , reinforcing that even outside the cutover, baseline mechanical/operational issues continue to drag on the all-causes (non-Amtrak-adjusted) figure that this market uses. - [2026-09-11] The same report found that despite a much larger budget, NJ Transit's operating budget grew by roughly 20%, and the recently adopted fiscal year 2027 budget reaches a record $3.5 billion — 46% higher than in 2020. Yet mechanical reliability declined significantly over the same period , undercutting any assumption that recent investment alone should push OTP comfortably above 90% in November. - [2026-10-01] Even in the run-up to the cutover, unrelated Amtrak infrastructure work was already causing intermittent delays (per colleagues' Oct 1 finding), indicating the baseline "non-cutover" disruption environment entering October-November is already elevated, not calm. - [2018-12-12, cited for mechanism not figure] The historical "worst November" case shows the structural vulnerability of November specifically to major, time-pressured infrastructure projects — the Bloomberg piece attributed the 2018 collapse to a "year-end deadline to install a lifesaving brake system" , an analogous pattern of a hard regulatory/engineering deadline compressing disruptive work into Q4, as the Portal cutover's "complete before Thanksgiving" framing does for 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on a now-finalized, officially announced ~50% Newark–Penn capacity cut and systemwide ~10% service reduction running Oct 11–Nov 14 (per NJ Transit's and Amtrak's own Sept 17-18 announcements), combined with a documented precedent from the first cutover phase (Feb-Mar 2026) in which the identical engineer-reassignment mechanism caused mass cancellations at both the start and the "return to normal" tail-end of the disruption window — making a November 2026 all-causes OTP reading comfortably below 90% a plausible, mechanism-backed outcome even though the most recent clean month (August 2026) cleared the bar at 91%. NOT FOUND: An official NJ TRANSIT board report or dashboard figure for September 2026 OTP; any post-October-9 news on how the actual fall cutover's opening days performed (research cutoff of Oct 2, 2026 precedes the Oct 9-11 start); any NJ Transit/Amtrak quantified forecast of the expected OTP percentage-point impact of the fall cutover.