Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%? — Dan Sullivan, 0-3%

- [2026-10-01] FiftyPlusOne's polling average (aggregating all public polls) showed Peltola +4, with Peltola at 49.3% and Sullivan at 45.7% on Oct 1, 2026 — the most recent polling-average snapshot. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/alaska - [2026-10-01] Kalshi-sourced prediction-market odds reposted by Prediction Edge (last updated Oct 1, 4:28 PM UTC) show the incumbent Dan Sullivan at roughly 31-32% to win outright, with Peltola favored; this reflects win probability, not margin. https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race/ - [2026-09-25] Decision Desk HQ's weekly forecast memo stated that Peltola has just over a 3 in 5 shot of defeating Sullivan in the 2026 forecast, and in the Alaska polling average Peltola leads only about 50%-48% , calling it the Democrats' second-most-likely flip. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/alaska-senate-polls-peltola-favorite-sullivan-2026-midterms-forecast-update-approval-generic-ballot - [2026-09-22/24] Trafalgar Group poll had Sullivan narrowly ahead, 46.8% to 45.5% (Sullivan +1.3), one of the few recent polls favoring the incumbent. https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race/ - [2026-09-18] A Newsweek report on the AARP survey noted Peltola ahead of the Republican incumbent 46% to 41% in the initial round, growing to 53% to 47% after simulating ranked-choice voting . https://www.newsweek.com/mary-peltola-dan-sullivan-poll-alaska-trump-state-12457082 - [2026-09-18] The AARP poll (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, Sept 8-11, 800 LVs) is corroborated by The Hill: an AARP poll conducted by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research released Thursday showed Peltola ahead of the GOP senator at 46 percent support to his 41 percent, with 7 percent of respondents undecided . https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6095497-peltola-leads-sullivan-alaska-senate-race-poll/ - [2026-09-14] Rasmussen Reports (Sept 13-14 survey) found the first-round contest essentially tied: 39% of Likely Alaska voters would vote for Sullivan, while 39% would vote for Peltola , with 7% for the spoiler "other" Dan Sullivan — a notable outlier more favorable to Sullivan than most other pollsters. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_alaska_senate - [2026-08-18] Official primary results reported by Alaska Public Media showed Peltola leading the Senate race with 48% of the vote while Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan was in second with 43% , with fourth place too close to call between a Democrat and Republican. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-08-18/u-s-senate-race-will-likely-have-two-dan-sullivans-and-a-mary-peltola - [2026-09-02 approx.] NBC News confirmed the Alaska Division of Elections finalized a four-candidate November ballot: two Republicans named Dan Sullivan, another named Gerald Heikes and Democrat Mary Peltola, who finished first during the all-party primary; Democrat David Leslie had finished fourth but withdrew, so fifth-place Gerald Heikes advanced instead . https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/alaska-finalizes-senate-race-3-republicans-2-dan-sullivan-1-democrat-rcna595617 - [2026-09-18] NBC News noted the presence of a second, similarly-named independent candidate could scramble ranked-choice outcomes: the top four candidates advance to a ranked-choice general election, meaning voters could rank both Sullivans, but some voters end up ranking only one candidate, which could matter in a close race . https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/alaska-senate-results - [2026-09-30] Prediction Edge's news feed flagged a major late-campaign development: a report that Trump announced plans for a $54 billion South Korean investment in an Alaska LNG pipeline project, a potential boost to Sullivan given his advocacy for Alaska energy projects, though no post-announcement polling has yet captured its effect. https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race/ - [2026-09-30] The same feed also noted a negative story about Peltola's record on a state "tolerance commission," illustrating active opposition-research attacks against the Democratic candidate in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election. https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/alaska-race/ BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, nearly every public poll except Rasmussen and Trafalgar shows Peltola leading Sullivan by roughly 2-6 points in first-choice voting, with her lead widening further under ranked-choice simulation (AARP: 53%-47%); forecasters (Decision Desk HQ) give Peltola ~60% to win outright. This points toward either a Sullivan loss (negative margin) or, if the race tightens, a possible narrow single-digit Sullivan win, making a 0-3% Sullivan victory margin plausible but not the modal outcome given the polling trend favoring Peltola. NOT FOUND: No poll or market data from after October 1, 2026 (i.e., the final two days before this report) was available; no direct reporting yet on voter reaction to the October 1 Trump/South Korea LNG investment announcement; no official Alaska Division of Elections ranked-choice tabulation data exists yet since the election has not occurred.

- [2026-09-23] The Cook Political Report rates the Alaska Senate race a "Toss Up," underscoring that a very narrow margin (in either direction) is a live scenario rather than a tail risk. | SOLID D | LIKELY D | | LEAN D | | TOSS UP | | LEAN R | | LIKELY R | | SOLID R | ... AK-Sullivan - [2026-10-01] Decision Desk HQ's model, blending fundamentals and markets, gives Sullivan only a 39% win probability and projects the race as "Lean Democratic," with a projected margin of D+2, i.e. Peltola favored by a small margin, consistent with Sullivan's margin landing near zero or slightly negative rather than comfortably positive. Last updated Oct 1, 2:21 PM ... Alaska leans in favor of Mary Peltola ... 61%Probability Generic BallotD+7.9 Projected MarginD+2 - [2026-10-01] DDHQ's own polling average has Peltola leading Sullivan by less than 2 points: Mary Peltola 50.10%, Dan Sullivan 48.30%, Peltola +1.8% , a gap squarely in the range that would flip the "margin of victory" question depending on turnout and ranked-choice reallocation. - [2026-09-24] Individual recent polls show the race oscillating around a 0-6 point spread in either direction: Trafalgar (Sullivan +1.3), co/efficient (Sullivan +2.0 and +3.0), Alaska Survey Research (Peltola +3.8 to +5.2), and Fabrizio/Impact Research (Peltola +5-6), showing no consistent polling consensus but several polls falling within or near a 0-3% margin band. Trafalgar Group Sep 22 - 24 Sullivan+1.3 45.5% 46.8% | co/efficient Sep 14 - 17 Sullivan+2.0 46.0% 48.0% | co/efficient Sep 14 - 17 Sullivan+3.0 46.0% 49.0% | Alaska Survey Research Sep 10 - 12 Peltola+4.6 - [2026-08-19] Reference class: the August 18 top-four nonpartisan primary (a single-choice, non-RCV tally) showed Peltola leading Sullivan by roughly 5-8 points (48% Peltola to 43% Sullivan per early count, later 49.5% to 41.4% final), indicating the field entered the general with a mid-single-digit Peltola edge before any RCV reallocation of votes for Heikes or the second "Dan Sullivan." With primary votes left to count, Peltola so far has 48% of the vote, with Sen. Dan S. Sullivan taking 43%. Peltola and Sullivan were the first to advance with 49.5% and 41.4% of the vote respectively. - [2026-10-01] Kalshi-linked tracker shows the market pricing a Peltola win as much more likely than a Sullivan win, with Sullivan near 31% to win outright, a figure consistent with forecasters seeing this as a genuine toss-up rather than a lock for either side. - [2026-09-30] Historical base rate for Sullivan specifically: in his prior two Senate races, his final margins were +12.7% (2020, 53.9%-41.2%) and a much tighter +2.2% in his first 2014 win, per RealClearPolitics historical data — showing Sullivan's elections have ranged from blowout to within-the-0-3%-band. 2020 Final Results Sullivan +12.7 ... 2014 Final Results Sullivan +2.2 - [2026-09-30] Outside-view on Alaska statewide races generally: Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Alaska since 2008, reflecting a historical lean toward Republicans even in close years, which cuts against an easy "wide-margin Sullivan win" but also against an easy "wide-margin Peltola win." Democrats have not won a Senate election in Alaska since 2008. - [2026-07-01] Cook's Partisan Voting Index context: Alaska is rated roughly R+6, meaning a generic Republican would be expected to run several points ahead of even — a baseline that, combined with current Peltola-leaning polling, suggests this particular race is unusually close relative to the state's partisan lean. COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX Last updated : Apr 27, 2026 ... R+6 - [2026-09-30] A complicating structural factor unique to this race (relevant to the "base rate" of such a question being resolvable precisely) is the presence of a second, confusingly similarly-named candidate, "Dan J. Sullivan," which both campaigns and prosecutors have flagged as a possible vote-splitting/spoiler dynamic that could pull a few points of Sullivan-leaning votes away before RCV reallocation. State and federal prosecutors are investigating whether his candidacy is part of a conspiracy to confuse voters. BOTTOM LINE: There is no historical precedent for "margin of victory in a specific 0-3% band" questions to resolve against; the relevant outside-view signal here is that polling averages, forecaster models (DDHQ Lean-D, Cook Toss-Up), and the state's unusually tight 2026 contest all cluster the expected margin near zero (roughly Peltola +1.8 to +2.8 in the polling average, DDHQ projecting D+2), meaning a final Sullivan margin landing just outside 0-3% (likely a small Peltola win) is more probable on current evidence than a Sullivan win within 0-3%, though the race is close enough that either side's 0-3% outcome is plausible. NOT FOUND: No long-run historical base rate specifically for "how often U.S. Senate margins fall within a 0-3% band" generally, nor a specific track record of Kalshi/Polymarket forecasts for sub-ranges of margin in past Senate races; could not find a dedicated academic/historical frequency study for this precise reference class.

YES means: Dan Sullivan wins reelection with a final-round (post-ranked-choice-voting reallocation) margin over Mary Peltola of at least 0% and strictly less than 3%, i.e., a narrow Sullivan victory. - [2026-10-01] Not every poll shows a Sullivan deficit outside the band: RealClearPolitics' own polling average on its Alaska page shows the race at Peltola +2.3 with 52% figures elsewhere, a gap small enough that normal poll-to-election movement could push Sullivan into a 0-3% win rather than a loss. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/alaska/peltola-vs-sullivan - [2026-10-01] Newsweek/CNN analyst Harry Enten's cross-state polling-error analysis found Republicans "outperformed the polls by several points" in comparable 2024 Midwest Senate races—9 points in Iowa, 6 in Ohio, 5 in Michigan—providing a documented mechanism (systematic pro-Democratic polling bias) that, if it recurs in Alaska, could convert the current ~2-6 point Peltola lead into a single-digit or even 0-3% Sullivan win. https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-optimism-in-six-senate-races-may-be-a-mirage-what-the-polls-reveal-12512862 - [2026-10-01] The same Newsweek analysis notes Alaska-specific precedent: in 2020, New York Times/Siena measured Sullivan ahead of independent-backed Democrat Al Gross 45% to 37%, an eight-point lead. Sullivan ultimately defeated Gross by nearly 13 percentage points, again running roughly four to five points stronger than the survey projected , and in 2022 the AARP poll showed Murkowski tied with Tshibaka on the final RCV ballot, yet she won by over 7 points — both instances of Alaska pollsters undershooting the eventual Republican margin, a mechanism directly applicable to Sullivan in 2026. - [2026-10-01] Sullivan's own campaign is publicly messaging confidence rooted in this polling-error history: spokesperson Nate Adams told Newsweek "Alaska is a notoriously difficult state to poll" and that the campaign is "confident about where things currently stand and where they are heading," https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-optimism-in-six-senate-races-may-be-a-mirage-what-the-polls-reveal-12512862 - [2026-10-01] A fresh, large-scale tangible benefit landed days before the report cutoff: Trump announced a historic $54 billion investment by South Korea in the Alaska LNG pipeline, with Sullivan standing beside Trump and credited by name — Trump praised Sullivan directly, saying "he's been working on this deal and other deals in Alaska…for almost 20 years," giving Sullivan a closing-argument economic win (jobs, energy costs) that has not yet been tested in any post-announcement poll and could move persuadable/economically-focused voters toward him before Nov. 3. https://congress.net/trump-spotlights-sen-dan-sullivan-in-54-billion-alaska-lng-pipeline-announcement/ - [2026-09-29/30] Trump is personally campaigning for Sullivan in the race's final weeks: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told Senate Republicans Trump's midterm travel itinerary includes a trek to Alaska to help GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan , an in-person rally likely to drive base GOP turnout in a state Trump carried by double digits in three straight elections. https://semafor.com/article/09/29/2026/trump-to-stop-in-alaska-other-senate-battlegrounds-ahead-of-midterms - [2026-09-30/10-01] Trump has also launched a direct, repeated messaging campaign urging Republicans to consolidate behind the real Sullivan and reject the spoiler, telling voters bluntly "So, vote for the guy with the S," — an explicit anti-spoiler instruction that, if heeded, would reduce the ~3-9% of the vote currently splitting off to Dan J. Sullivan/Heikes (per AARP's 2026-09-18 Sept. 8-11 poll and Rasmussen's 2026-09-14 poll) and could meaningfully narrow or erase Peltola's first-round lead before RCV reallocation. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6121739-trump-praises-senator-dan-sullivan - [2026-10-01] Sullivan's own electoral history shows his tightest previous win was a 2.2-point squeaker in 2014 — 2014: Sullivan (R) +2.2 — establishing that a sub-3-point Sullivan victory is not a hypothetical outlier but a result he has actually produced once before in a competitive Alaska environment. - [2026-10-02] Even with the $54B LNG deal, some ownership/financing details remain unresolved — Trump's framing has been contested, as the president told the nation the Alaska liquified natural gas pipeline was set to receive $54 billion from a South Korean investment while local reporting flagged that Korea "haven't decided to invest" yet — meaning the political boost could still grow heading into November as more concrete milestones are announced, favoring Sullivan's momentum in the final month. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/10/02/trump-says-long-promised-lng-pipeline-will-be-paid-by-south-korea-they-havent-decided-invest/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path hinges on a repeat of Alaska's documented history of polls underestimating Republican/Sullivan performance (by 4-13 points in 2020 and 2022), combined with late-breaking tailwinds — the Oct. 1 $54B LNG investment announcement, an in-person Trump rally, and an explicit Trump-led push to consolidate GOP voters against the spoiler Dan J. Sullivan — any of which could pull the race from today's ~2-6 point Peltola polling lead into a narrow single-digit Sullivan win within the 0-3% band. NOT FOUND: No post-LNG-announcement poll (after Oct. 1) measuring any bounce for Sullivan; no data on how many Dan J. Sullivan/Heikes voters' second-choice rankings would flow to Sullivan vs. exhaust under RCV; no final consolidated spoiler-vote-share estimate.

YES means: Dan Sullivan wins re-election with a final-round margin of at least 0% but strictly less than 3 percentage points over the next-closest candidate (i.e., a very narrow Sullivan victory, inclusive of an exact tie resolving to 0%). The NO case argues the final margin lands outside that narrow band — either a Sullivan loss (negative margin) or a Sullivan win wider than 3 points. - [2026-10-01] Kalshi and Polymarket both price Peltola as the clear favorite to win outright (Kalshi ~70%, Polymarket ~73%), meaning traders put roughly seven-in-ten odds on a negative Sullivan margin rather than any positive band, let alone the narrow 0-3% one. https://defirate.com/news/peltola-holds-kalshi-staff-allegations-alaska-senate-tightens/ - [2026-10-01] The same report notes Republican-aligned Last Frontier PAC is only now spending roughly $600,000 testing a new attack ad off a Sept. 23 New York Times story alleging Peltola berated and shoved House staff — an untested, late-breaking variable that could move the race by more than the 3-point band in either direction if it lands or backfires. https://defirate.com/news/peltola-holds-kalshi-staff-allegations-alaska-senate-tightens/ - [2026-10-01] Total ad reservations for the cycle show Republicans outspending Democrats $45 million to $32 million (Aug.–Election Day, per Axios), a GOP money edge big enough to plausibly swing the race past a mere 0-3% squeaker into a wider Sullivan win rather than landing in the narrow band. https://defirate.com/news/peltola-holds-kalshi-staff-allegations-alaska-senate-tightens/ - [2026-09-18] Newsweek's reporting of the AARP ranked-choice simulation and a separate Data for Progress survey both show Peltola winning the final round 53%-47%, a 6-point margin that — if accurate — would put Sullivan's margin at -6%, well outside the 0-3% band on the losing side. https://www.newsweek.com/mary-peltola-dan-sullivan-poll-alaska-trump-state-12457082 - [2026-09-30/10-01] Polymarket's dedicated "Margin of Victory (First Round)" sibling contract itself shows "Peltola 0-3%" as the single leading outcome at 31%, ahead of "Sullivan 0-3%" at 26%, indicating cross-platform trader consensus favors a narrow Peltola win over a narrow Sullivan win. https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-first-round - [2026-09-23] An independent prediction-market analysis (thetradersspread) separately notes Peltola "beat Senator Dan Sullivan by eight points in the 18 August primary" and argues markets may be overpricing her chances, but even its "fair value" estimate of 62% still favors a Peltola win over a narrow Sullivan win. https://thetradersspread.com/prediction-markets/alaska-senate-peltola-78-5-percent-cook-toss-up - [2026-08-26] CNN's analysis of the ranked-choice "spoiler" dynamic found that historically "an average of 28% of a candidate's voters didn't rank a backup when that candidate was eliminated," meaning Dan J. Sullivan's ~2.5% primary vote could bleed away from the incumbent in the final round rather than fully transferring, pushing Sullivan's final margin further negative rather than into a tight positive band. https://us.cnn.com/2026/08/26/politics/dan-sullivan-alaska-senate-race - [2026-09] A rival forecasting model (PoliAgg) independently produced a point-estimate "predicted final margin" of R+6.0 with an 80% confidence interval spanning R+16.2 to D+4.3 — illustrating that credible models also assign meaningful probability to a wide Sullivan win (outside the 0-3% upper bound) as well as to a Peltola win, squeezing out the narrow 0-3% Sullivan scenario as the single most likely outcome. https://poliagg.com/race/us-senate-2026-ak/ - [2026-09-14] Even Rasmussen's relatively Sullivan-favorable survey only found the race tied 39%-39% in first-round support, not showing any lead sufficient to project a positive Sullivan margin surviving the ranked-choice process once Heikes's and spoiler-Sullivan's voters are reallocated. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_alaska_senate - [2024-11-20] As a base-rate caution for any narrow-margin bet on this ballot system, Alaska's 2024 ranked-choice repeal referendum itself resolved by a razor-thin 664 votes out of 340,110 cast, showing the state's electorate is capable of extremely tight statewide outcomes that land outside tidy expectations in either direction. https://alaskapublic.org/2024/11/20/alaskas-ranked-choice-repeal-measure-fails-by-664-votes/ - [2026-10-01] Alaska is simultaneously voting on a second Ballot Measure 2 to repeal ranked-choice voting itself, with Republicans actively campaigning for repeal; a rushed or contested count, or unusual turnout patterns driven by this concurrent measure, adds mechanical uncertainty that could push the Senate margin outside the narrow 0-3% band in unpredictable ways. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/07/29/alaskans-to-vote-on-ballot-measure-that-would-overhaul-state-election-system/ BOTTOM LINE: Nearly all current polling averages, forecaster models, and cross-platform prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, DDHQ, PoliAgg) put more probability mass on either a Sullivan loss or a wider-than-3-point outcome than on the specific narrow 0-3% Sullivan-win band; untested late-campaign shocks (the NYT staff-allegations story, the $13M GOP ad-spending edge, and RCV spoiler dynamics) all have the potential to push the final margin past 3 points in either direction rather than settling into the thin target range. NOT FOUND: No post-October-1 polling or any actual ranked-choice tabulation data exists yet; no data on how the Oct 1 Trump/LNG announcement or the Peltola staff-allegations ad campaign has moved undecided voters in the final weeks.