New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

- [2026-05-07] Andy Burnham became Labour Party leader and UK Prime Minister in mid-2026 (winning the leadership contest unopposed after Keir Starmer's resignation); he took office as PM in July 2026, succeeding Starmer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Burnham - [2026-05-07] The SNP won a fifth successive Scottish Parliament election on 7 May 2026 but fell short of the 65 seats required to win an outright majority , governing instead with Green support. - [2026-05-26] On the first sitting day of the new Parliament, MSPs voted 72 to 55 in favor of a motion demanding the UK grant a Section 30 order devolving referendum powers to Holyrood , but this has no binding legal effect on Westminster. - [2026-05-26] The UK government (then under Starmer) immediately rejected the demand, with a Downing Street spokesperson stating the UK does not support independence or another referendum, saying "there is no such consensus now" unlike in the run-up to 2014. - [2026-07-18] First Minister John Swinney published draft legislation setting out the framework for a proposed second independence referendum, including franchise rules and campaign regulations, reiterating that Westminster should agree to a Section 30 order ; he said his government was aiming for a referendum by the end of 2026, subject to securing UK Government consent . - [2026-08-28] The Scottish Government formally published a (still draft, undated) Referendum Bill posing the question "Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes or No," but the bill will only be introduced into Parliament once the necessary powers are secured and will include a date only upon introduction — no date has been set. - [2026-09-01] In his Programme for Government speech, Swinney reaffirmed the constitutional push but, per analysis, publishing a draft Bill does not supply the missing referendum powers, and the September programme adds commitments on governance rather than evidence that referendum powers have been delivered . - [~2026-09-26] New PM Andy Burnham, in an STV interview, ruled out another referendum on Scottish independence, insisting a "clear resolution was reached" in 2014 , and said "there is no clear consensus" for another referendum and "I don't think now is the time for another referendum" . - [~2026-09-11] Separately, at PMQs, Burnham had suggested a referendum could be considered in future if public opinion shifts decisively in favour , drawing a parallel to the Good Friday Agreement's Northern Ireland border-poll mechanism — but stopped short of committing to any process or timetable. - [2026-09-15] Independent polling trackers show support for independence in a near-even 50/50 split when undecideds are excluded , with the UK Supreme Court having already ruled Holyrood cannot hold a unilateral referendum, and Westminster continuing to refuse to transfer the power . - [2026-10-02 (as of today)] No Section 30 order has been granted, no referendum date has been set, and the UK government's position under PM Burnham remains firmly opposed to sanctioning a new referendum. BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, the Scottish Government has a draft (undated) referendum bill and a Holyrood vote demanding a Section 30 order, but the UK Government — first under Starmer and now under new PM Andy Burnham — has explicitly and repeatedly refused to sanction any new referendum, citing lack of "clear consensus." There is no sign of an imminent UK-sanctioned referendum being announced before 1 January 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any UK government announcement, Section 30 order, Edinburgh-Agreement-style negotiation, or set referendum date; no confirmation of any shift in Burnham government's stated opposition in the days immediately preceding 2026-10-02 beyond the STV interview.

Base rate / outside view for "new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government, announced before 1 Jan 2027": - [2012-10-15] The only prior instance of a UK-government-sanctioned Scottish referendum was the 2014 vote, enabled by a Section 30 order agreed between the UK and Scottish governments under the Edinburgh Agreement. That order was time-limited (vote had to occur before 31 Dec 2014), showing such sanctioning requires bilateral negotiation, not just a unilateral request. (instituteforgovernment.org.uk) - [2022-11-23] The UK supreme court has ruled that the Scottish parliament does not have the power to unilaterally call a second referendum on Scottish independence. This confirmed that since 2014, the "base rate" of UK-government consent requests being granted is 0 for 0: every formal ask (2017 May, 2019-2022 Johnson/Sturgeon, 2022-2024 Sunak) has been refused. - [2017-03-31] Sturgeon wrote "I am therefore writing to begin early discussions between our governments to agree an order under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998," and a spokesman for May said the UK government would respond in due course, but ruled out discussions on a second secession vote. - [2022-07-21] Johnson reiterated his government's stance, saying "As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is a time to revisit a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014." - [2026-05-20/29] Following the SNP's fifth consecutive Holyrood win (58/129 seats, pro-independence SNP+Green majority of 73/129), the SNP "brought forward a vote in the Scottish Parliament... to approve the development of a section 30 order," with the motion backed 72–55 — but per the same source, this request carries no legal force without UK government agreement. - [2026-07-18] First Minister John Swinney published draft legislation setting out a framework for a proposed second independence referendum, aiming for a vote by the end of 2026, subject to securing UK Government consent — but faced immediate rejection from Westminster. - [2026-07-07] Andy Burnham (incoming PM) "explicitly rejected the possibility of another Scottish independence referendum," putting him "in the same camp as every prime minister since 2014," each of whom denied the Section 30 order. - [2026-09-10ish] As PM, Burnham ruled out a second independence referendum "unless the majority of Scots support the vote," saying "I am not aware that there is a majority of public support for another [Scottish] referendum. And until that changes Mr Speaker, there won't be one." - [2026-07-20] UK ministers and opposition parties at Holyrood immediately rejected the proposal as constitutionally improper, insisting the union is a reserved matter — echoing the consistent position taken by successive Conservative and Labour governments since 2014. - [2026-09] Polling cited in secondary sources suggests Scotland remains roughly evenly split on independence (with one poll showing an 11-point Yes lead and "most surveys placing support for Yes and No within a few points of 50/50 when undecided voters are excluded" ), but no UK-wide poll shows a decisive majority that would meet Burnham's stated bar. - [2026-09] A political commentary piece notes the realistic process even if granted would involve prolonged negotiation over conditions, not an immediate announcement: "Starmer would not simply grant the request. It would be granted subject to 'negotiations' between the two governments." This logic applies equally to Burnham. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class since 2014 is unbroken: every formal Scottish request for UK consent to a new referendum (2017, 2019-22, 2022-24, and now 2026) has been refused by the sitting PM (May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, now Burnham), and the Supreme Court has foreclosed any unilateral route — so the historical and current base rate of this event resolving "Yes" within a ~1-2 year window is effectively zero, reinforced by Burnham's explicit, recent, and repeated refusal. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any UK government (Conservative or Labour) ever granting a Section 30-style order outside the unique 2012-14 Edinburgh Agreement precedent; no credible betting-market or pollster-based probability estimate specifically for "referendum announced by Jan 2027" was located beyond this contract itself.

YES means: a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government (e.g., via a Section 30 order, negotiated agreement, or equivalent legal mechanism) is announced before 1 January 2027. - [2026-09-09] At PMQs, Burnham told MPs the trigger for a Scottish referendum should be "exactly the same situation" as the Good Friday Agreement's Northern Ireland border-poll mechanism, suggesting another Scottish independence referendum could be held if public opinion shows demand for it, with the trigger "exactly the same situation in Scotland" as in Northern Ireland — the first time any PM has conceded Scotland's situation is analogous to a legally-mandated referendum trigger. - [2026-09-10] Swinney formally wrote to Burnham the same day, stating "Your acceptance of the fact that majority support for independence in Scotland also means that a referendum should take place is welcome," adding he was "encouraged that you have reconsidered your previous comments that the democratic right of the people of Scotland to choose their own future is 'off limits.'" and inviting Burnham to a meeting to convert the principle into a legal mechanism. - [2026-09-11ish] Burnham did reply, but sought to limit the concession, saying in his response Northern Ireland and Scotland have "distinct constitutional arrangements" and claiming he was only highlighting "there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland" — showing Downing Street actively engaging rather than simply ignoring Swinney's overture. - [2026-09-15] One pollster-cited figure shows a markedly more favourable Yes position than the 50/50 consensus: a poll on an independence referendum put YES in a massive 11 point lead, with don't-knows removed, 56% of Scottish voters backing independence against 44% for the Union — if sustained, this is the kind of "majority support" Burnham himself said would remove his objection. - [2026-09 polling] Separately, process-question polling (distinct from the Yes/No referendum question) found 48% of Scottish adults support holding indyref2 in the next five years, versus 37% opposed and 15% undecided , indicating a plurality for simply holding a vote even without majority Yes support. - [2026-06-22/09-04] A Private Members' Bill, the Scotland (Independence Referendum) Bill, sponsored by SNP MP Graham Leadbitter, had its 1st reading in the Commons on 22 June 2026 and 2nd reading on 4 September 2026 , a Bill to amend the Scotland Act 1998 to transfer the power to legislate for a Scottish independence referendum to the Scottish Parliament — giving the pro-referendum side an active, moving legislative vehicle in Westminster (not merely a Holyrood motion), which could in principle be the instrument through which "UK government sanction" is delivered if government whips allow it through. - [2026-07-18/08-28] Swinney's own draft Referendum Bill, published 28 August, is explicit that it is a compliance-ready instrument: the Bill will be introduced into Parliament once the necessary powers are secured, sets out the question and franchise, and once agreed will include the date — meaning the mechanics for a fast announcement exist the moment Westminster consent is forthcoming, reducing the lag between any UK U-turn and an "announced" referendum. - [2026-09] Commentary (John Curtice, cited in coverage of the Burnham exchange) treats the PMQs remark as a genuine political opening rather than a slip, with follow-up reporting headlined on the premise that "Andy Burnham doesn't know what he's unleashed with indyref2 admission" — suggesting commentators see the concession as creating real pressure Burnham cannot easily retract. - [2026-09] The core YES mechanism Swinney is now pursuing is not a bespoke Edinburgh-Agreement-style negotiation but an attempt to import the Good Friday Agreement's "likely majority" test into Scots constitutional practice, which, unlike the Section 30 route, does not require a fixed-date one-off order — if agreed, it could function as a standing framework whose trigger (a decisive Yes poll lead, as in the 11-point poll) could be met and invoked within the remaining window before 1 January 2027. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest live path to YES is not a change of UK government position on a traditional Section 30 request (which Burnham has repeatedly refused) but his own unscripted Good Friday Agreement comparison, which Swinney is now trying to pin down as a binding legal mechanism, combined with a parallel Private Members' Bill already past second reading in the Commons and polling (at least one recent survey) showing an outright Yes majority — if a run of polls confirms a decisive Yes lead before year-end, Burnham's own stated conditional ("until that changes, there won't be one") could be triggered, forcing an announcement. NOT FOUND: No confirmation that the Swinney–Burnham meeting actually occurred or has been scheduled; no evidence the Leadbitter PMB has government backing or is scheduled for Committee/Report stage before January 2027; no corroboration of the single 56%/44% poll by other pollsters (other trackers still show 50/50), so it may be an outlier.

YES means: a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned (i.e., formally agreed/consented to, e.g. via a Section 30 order or equivalent UK-government authorization) is announced before 1 Jan 2027. - [2026-05-25] The House of Commons Library's own briefing on Section 30 Orders confirms the unbroken historical pattern: "Section 30 Orders can be initiated either by the Scottish or UK Governments but require approval by the House of Commons, House of Lords and the Scottish Parliament before becoming law" — a triple-veto structure, not a unilateral announcement, with every post-2014 request (2017, 2019, and now 2026) rejected before reaching that stage. - [2026-07-08 update] The same Commons Library page notes that the most high-profile Section 30 Order was made in 2013 and "took place on 18 September 2014," underscoring that even a successful bilateral agreement historically needed roughly two years from first request to referendum — a timeline incompatible with any new agreement materializing between now and 1 Jan 2027 even if Westminster reversed course immediately. - [2026 explainer, SPICe] The Scottish Parliament's own procedural explainer states "Although it is for the Scottish and UK Parliaments to agree to or reject Orders made under the Scotland Act, such Orders require a significant amount of intergovernmental working... This is work undertaken by Scottish and UK Ministers before an Order is laid in Parliament or made" — i.e., even a hypothetical political U-turn by PM Burnham today would still face a multi-month drafting/negotiation/parliamentary-approval process (both Houses plus Holyrood) that could not plausibly complete and be "announced" as sanctioned before 2027. - [2026-09-25] In the STV interview, Burnham stated plainly: "There was a clear resolution reached and I don't think now is the time to go back into that," and added "I don't think now is the time for another referendum," "I support the union," explicitly rejecting any shift in policy. - [2026-09-25] Burnham further tied any future reconsideration to an undefined "clear consensus" threshold, saying "Things haven't changed as far as I can see" and framing the issue as a distraction from "the cost of living," giving no indication of movement toward sanctioning a vote. - [2026-09-25] Opposition reaction captured in the same report shows no political pressure pushing Burnham toward concession: the Scottish Conservatives accused him of "furiously trying to backtrack" on earlier ambiguous remarks, while the SNP's own response welcomed only rhetorical acknowledgment of a "right to decide," not an actual grant of power — confirming no substantive movement occurred. - [Historical base rate, FOI/Commons Library record] Every formal Scottish Government request for a Section 30-style order since 2014 — 2017, 2019, and 2026 — has been refused by the sitting UK Government, per the Commons Library briefing: "In March 2017, the Scottish Government requested a section 30 Order... but the UK Government refused... Following the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, a majority of MSPs endorsed another request... This was rejected by the UK Government." - [Structural note] Because any Section 30 Order is "subordinate legislation" requiring affirmative approval by the Commons, Lords, and Holyrood in draft before being "made at a meeting of the Privy Council," per the SPICe explainer, there is no fast-track mechanism by which a sanctioned referendum could be "announced" without first clearing this multi-institution gauntlet — a bar not even approached as of early October 2026. - [No countervailing signal found] No reporting was found of any bilateral UK–Scotland negotiation channel, draft Section 30 text, or Privy Council agenda item relating to a new referendum being scheduled or discussed as of the dates reviewed (through late September 2026), consistent with colleagues' findings. BOTTOM LINE: The structural/legal bar for "sanctioning" a referendum is high (tri-cameral approval plus lengthy intergovernmental drafting, historically ~2 years even when both sides agreed), and the sitting PM has, within the last week of available reporting, explicitly and unambiguously ruled out any policy shift — reinforcing a strong status-quo/NO case with no procedural or political opening visible before 1 Jan 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any draft Section 30 text being exchanged, no Privy Council scheduling, and no indication Burnham's government has softened its position in any statement after the 25 Sept 2026 STV interview through 2 Oct 2026.