Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-18] The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% at the September Monetary Policy Meeting, a 7-2 majority vote with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting from the hike. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period: The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.25 percent. Source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf - [2026-09-18] The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. The BOJ said the move was because of a risk that inflation will deviate upward to beyond its 2% target. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/japan-raises-rates-30-year-high-yen-jgb.html - [2026-09-18] This marked a faster pace of tightening: Momma spoke one week after Gov. Kazuo Ueda's board lifted the policy rate three months after an increase in June, marking an acceleration from the previous pace of hiking roughly once every six months. Ueda explained that the BOJ had entered a new phase, shifting its focus from coaxing underlying inflation higher toward 2% to preventing it from overshooting that target. Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/28/economy/boj-hike-october-possibility/ - [2026-09-18 (effective 2026-09-24)] Per the BOJ's own site, current rates are: Interest Rate Applied to the Complementary Deposit Facility 1.25% since September 24, 2026, Basic Loan Rate 1.5% since September 24, 2026 , with the Next Monetary Policy Meeting Date October 29 and 30, 2026 . Source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/ - [2026-09-28/09-27] A Bloomberg interview with former BOJ executive director Kazuo Momma argued an October hike is a real possibility: "The basic pace will probably be once every three months, but there's also a reasonable chance that the BOJ could raise rates at consecutive meetings," Kazuo Momma, the former executive director, said in an interview with Bloomberg Friday. "I'd put that possibility at around 20% to 30%." He also said "I think the possibility of delaying the next hike until January or later is extremely low." Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-27/boj-rate-hike-in-october-is-real-possibility-ex-official-says - [2026-09-11] The Bloomberg survey taken just before the September hike showed no economist expected a back-to-back October hike: All 52 BOJ watchers forecast borrowing costs will be raised at the end of a two-day meeting on Sept. 18, the survey showed. Some 93% expect another move by January, with around one-third predicting it could come in December. The rest picked January, with no one predicting a back-to-back hike in October. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-11/boj-watchers-see-follow-up-hike-by-january-after-september-move - [2026-10-01] A market-tracking commentary (BoJ Watch Tower) noted that, absent other factors, the Bank would likely not hike in October: All other things equal, the BoJ would not be considering a rate hike in October. It just pushed through a September rate hike without a Bank View update on growth & inflation, and it had to tolerate the optics of two Takaichi-appointed dissenters. It added the OIS curve is priced for about 20% chance of a rate hike at the Oct meeting , and both the FOMC and the ECB make their rate decision before the BoJ on the Friday, 30 Oct. If the other two Banks hike rates and the BoJ doesn't, Takata, Masu, and Ueda have essentially already flagged what will be the result. Given that many of the Board have now cited a change to inflation upside risks, avoiding a bigger problem at the Dec meeting may be enough to convince the majority. Source: https://bojwatchtower.substack.com/p/how-oct-meeting-becomes-live - [2026-09-21 approx. (tool metadata)] A market-implied probability tracker (TONA futures-based) shows low odds of a hike at the October 28/30 meeting: one snapshot cited The current market-implied probability of no change is 83% , while another computed snapshot from the same tool showed Oct 30, 2026 | 1.11% | 25.6% | 1.43 | 35.8 (implied ~25.6% hike probability, ~9-36bp expected move depending on snapshot). Source: https://rateprobability.com/boj and https://centralbank.watch/bank-of-japan/ - [2026-09-18] The official BOJ meeting schedule confirms the October MPM dates and that it is an Outlook Report ("Bank's View") meeting: Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.) | Oct. 30 (Fri.) | Nov. 10 (Tues.) | Dec. 23 (Wed.) , meaning the October decision will be accompanied by updated economic projections. Source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm - [2026-09-10] A Reuters poll ahead of September showed divergent house views, with Nomura Securities continues to assign a 60 percent probability to an October hike as its main scenario prior to the September move going through (Nomura's base case had been October, overtaken by the earlier September hike). Source: https://www.ajupress.com/view/20260910110757540 - [2026-07-23] Two months earlier, forecasters were split between October and December for the "next" hike after June: Half of surveyed economists still expect the Bank of Japan to wait until December to bump its benchmark interest rate higher, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government seen as a key obstacle to further action... Another 40% said it would come in October. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-23/half-of-economists-still-see-boj-waiting-until-december-to-hike BOTTOM LINE: The BOJ hiked 25bps to 1.25% on 2026-09-18 (effective 09-24), and as of the most recent surveys (pre- and immediately post-September decision) the clear consensus base case was for the *next* hike to land in December or January, not October, though a vocal minority (including a former BOJ executive and Nomura's earlier base case) still see a meaningful chance of a second consecutive hike in October, and market-implied pricing as of early October sits in roughly the 20-38% range for an October move. NOT FOUND: No official Bloomberg/Reuters economist survey conducted after the September 18 decision (i.e., specifically asking about October probability) was found in results; no confirmation yet of any pre-meeting guidance from Governor Ueda specifically dated within the last 7 days addressing October live-ness.

**Historical base rate / reference class** - [2026-09-30] Reuters reports the BOJ hiked once in 2024 and twice in 2025, then in June 2026 it pivoted to a faster, "pre-emptive" tightening approach, with the June→September 2026 gap only three months rather than the prior roughly six-month cadence: "The BOJ then hiked rates once in 2024 and twice in 2025 under a cautious approach focused on downside economic risks. It pivoted to an approach focused on fighting inflation in June, when it raised rates to 1.0% as rising import costs heightened the chance of broad-based price rises." This shows the BOJ has never historically done two consecutive (back-to-back, no gap) 25bp hikes since starting normalization in 2024 — October 2026 would be the first true "back-to-back" meeting hike. - [2026-09-18] The September 2026 hike to 1.25% came just three months after the previous increase, the shortest interval between hikes since 1990 , indicating the current pace is already a historical outlier in speed, but still not a true back-to-back move. - [2026-09-18] Governor Ueda explicitly declined to rule out back-to-back hikes but tied them to an inflation overshoot condition: "That depends on how price conditions develop... If we were to do big rate hikes or consecutive rate hikes, that would depend on whether Japan sees very big inflation risks, or sees inflation sharply overshooting our target. Underlying inflation hasn't exceeded 2% yet, and we want to keep it that way. That's why we'd like to act pre-emptively." **Expert / insider estimates** - [2026-09-26] Former BOJ executive director Kazuo Momma, now at Mizuho, put the odds of a second consecutive hike in October at 20-30%: Kazuo Momma told Bloomberg that "The basic pace will probably be once every three months, but there's also a reasonable chance that the BOJ could raise rates at consecutive meetings," and put the odds of back-to-back hikes at "around 20% to 30%." - [2026-09-26] Momma added that delaying the next hike to January or later looked unlikely, per "I think the possibility of delaying the next hike until January or later is extremely low," says former executive director Kazuo Momma. — implying his personal base case is more likely December than October, but October is a live possibility. **Economist polls (reference class for prior poll accuracy)** - [2026-07-23] A Reuters poll just before the June/July decisions found a split, with "Some 50% of 52 economists selected December as the most likely timing for the next move after the BOJ raised the rate last month... Another 40% said it would come in October." This poll's base rate (September hike) proved correct for the immediate-next move, but the October-vs-December split shows genuine uncertainty for the meeting after that. - [2026-09-10] A Reuters poll taken right before the September hike found: "More than one-third, 24 of 66 economists, anticipated the Japanese central bank would follow with another hike to 1.50% in either October or December, roughly double the share in August." This mixes October and December together rather than isolating October, understating the pure-October probability. - Track record: Bloomberg/Reuters survey consensus has correctly predicted the direction and approximate month of each 2026 hike (June, September) well in advance, lending credibility to its base rate even though it has not been tested specifically on a "second consecutive meeting" hike scenario, which is historically rare. **Market-implied pricing (context, not this contract's own price)** - [2026-10-01] OIS-derived market pricing site shows the BOJ target rate at 1.25% with the market attaching roughly a one-in-four to one-in-three implied probability to a hike at the October 30 meeting rather than a majority expectation of hold, consistent with centralbank.watch's separately sourced TONA-futures-implied ~83% probability of no change as of its last update. BOTTOM LINE: The relevant reference class — BOJ hikes at consecutive (back-to-back, no intervening pause) meetings — has essentially zero historical precedent since the 2024 normalization began, and even insiders who see October as "a real possibility" still center their estimate around a 20-30% probability, with most professional surveys still favoring December as the more likely timing for the next 25bp move. NOT FOUND: A clean historical frequency statistic for "BOJ hikes at consecutive meetings" prior to this cycle (pre-1995 data was not surveyed); a post-September-2026 Reuters/Bloomberg poll isolating October-only probability (most recent full survey found was from before the September meeting).

YES means: the BOJ raises its short-term policy rate by 25bps (to 1.50%) at the October 29-30, 2026 meeting, versus the 1.25% level set in September. - [2026-10-01] The September 2026 Summary of Opinions, released Oct 1, showed hawkish board members pushing for speed: "If signs of an upward deviation in prices are observed, the Bank will need to accelerate the pace of rate hikes," one member was quoted as saying. Another opinion stated "It is desirable for the Bank to bring the policy interest rate closer to the approximate goal relatively soon" to allow it scope to respond to unexpected developments in the economy. Reuters noted these views "reinforcing dominant market views of another rate hike this year." (https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/boj-debated-need-for-more-rate-hikes-at-september-meeting-summary-shows-4861024) - [2026-10-01] The same summary showed broad board support for continued tightening: "Most of the opinions in the summary released on Thursday cited the need to follow September's rate hike with further increases in borrowing costs as inflationary pressure mounts." (https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/344356/BOJ-debated-faster-rate-hikes-in-September-government-pushed-back) - [2026-09-25] The BOJ's own underlying-inflation gauge is accelerating well past target, strengthening the case for a further hike: consumer prices excluding fresh food and special factors climbed 2.6% in August from a year earlier, with the pace of gains accelerating from 2.3% in July , while a gauge that excludes non-fresh food, energy and special factors picked up to 1.8% from 1.6% . (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/boj-s-price-trend-indicator-quickens-in-support-of-another-hike) - [2026-10-01] The Q3 Tankan, released Oct 1 and covering Aug 26–Sep 30 responses, showed continued business-sentiment improvement that Reuters framed as supportive of more hikes: Japanese business confidence improved, suggesting the economy was weathering the hit from the Middle East conflict and bolstering the case for more rate hikes , with large manufacturer sentiment at +24 in September from +22 in June . (https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japan-business-mood-improves-tankan-survey-shows-4926127) - [2026-10-01] The Tankan's long-horizon inflation expectations stayed well above target, a point hawks can cite for an upside-risk hike: Companies expect inflation to hit 2.6% three years from now and 2.5% five years from now, the tankan showed, a sign firms see inflation staying well above the BOJ's 2% target for a prolonged period. (https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japan-business-mood-improves-tankan-survey-shows-4926127) - [2026-09-27/28] Former BOJ executive director Kazuo Momma's argument for October livenerss (already noted elsewhere) is reinforced by the mechanism he gave: a board majority now explicitly worried about inflation overshoot, with Ueda himself lifting the policy rate three months after an increase in June, marking an acceleration from the previous pace of hiking roughly once every six months... shifting its focus from coaxing underlying inflation higher toward 2% to preventing it from overshooting that target , which is the explicit rationale a hawkish majority would invoke for a second straight hike. (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/28/economy/boj-hike-october-possibility/) - [2026-10-01] One board member explicitly flagged a geopolitical inflation risk that could force faster action: "Taking into account most recent developments, we must consider the outlook for prices keeping in mind that crude oil prices could remain high," one member said, signalling alarm over the impact of the simmering Middle East conflict. (https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/boj-debated-need-for-more-rate-hikes-at-september-meeting-summary-shows-4861024) - [2026-10-01] The Tankan also showed the policy rate is still below the BOJ's own estimated neutral range, a structural argument hawks use for continued hikes regardless of calendar spacing: The BOJ faces greater pressure to raise rates than other central banks, as its policy rate remains near the bottom of the estimated 1.1% to 2.5% range of Japan's nominal neutral rate — the level that neither cools nor overheats growth. (https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/820205) - [2026-09/10 approx] One FX-desk note (BBH, via FXStreet) argued the October move is close to becoming the house base case, citing the Tankan's "8-year high" reading and assigning a majority probability to the hike happening, i.e. that sell-side desks are not uniformly skeptical of October. (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-gains-on-strong-tankan-survey-bbh-202510011109) - [2026-10] Mechanism/path to YES: for the 7-2 hawkish majority that just delivered September's hike to reassemble in October, the swing votes (Masu, Koeda) and the three BOJ executives would need to conclude that the post-Tankan, post-Summary-of-Opinions inflation and sentiment data (August core-core CPI at 1.8%, Tankan inflation expectations at 2.5-2.6%, improving large-manufacturer sentiment) constitute the "signs of an upward deviation in prices" that one member said would require accelerating the pace — turning the explicit internal hawkish rhetoric from Sept 18 into an actual October vote. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on a genuinely hawkish and still-live internal debate: the Sept 18 hike itself, the Oct 1 Summary of Opinions showing several members explicitly arguing for faster/sooner hikes, an accelerating BOJ underlying-inflation gauge (1.8% core-core in August), and an eight-year-high Tankan with elevated long-run inflation expectations all give the board's hawks concrete, recent, documented grounds to push through a second consecutive 25bp hike on October 30, with the policy rate still below the BOJ's own 1.1-2.5% neutral-rate estimate. NOT FOUND: A post-Tankan, post-Summary-of-Opinions (i.e., after Oct 1) formal Reuters/Bloomberg analyst poll isolating the October probability; the October 1 Japan Times tankan article could not be fetched directly (site inaccessible), so its figures were corroborated via Reuters/AP syndications instead; could not verify whether the Oct 21-dated FXStreet "hike odds collapse" article snippet (result referencing CPI data "due Thursday") reflects an actual future event or a template/draft dated past today's Oct 2 cutoff — treated as unconfirmed and excluded from the core argument.

YES means: the BOJ raises its short-term policy rate (uncollateralized overnight call rate) by 25bps above the current 1.25% at the conclusion of the October 29–30, 2026 meeting (i.e., to 1.50%), as confirmed by the BOJ's statement or a credible-reporting consensus; anything less (a hold, or a change the rules round into the "No change" bracket) resolves NO. - [2026-10-01] A dedicated BOJ-watcher analysis published today argues the market is mispriced and explicitly forecasts "no BoJ hike before the end of 2026," putting the next move in "no BoJ hike before the end of 2026. My call for the next hike is March 2027." - [2026-10-01] The same analysis notes the two historically pivotal swing votes have aligned with the cautious camp: "The two swing votes, Masu Kazuyuki and Koeda Junko, are staying with the BoJ executives. Masu said in the September meeting that there is no indication that the BoJ is falling behind the curve and there is no need to hurry in raising rates." - [2026-10-01] The BOJ's own Summary of Opinions from the September meeting, released October 1, shows two of nine members explicitly favored holding rather than hiking, and the summary offered no clear timing signal: "Most opinions backed the hike, while two favoured holding because headline CPI was below 2% and the economy was not clearly strong." Separately, "The summary is likely to boost speculation over another hike this year, although it offers no clear signal on the timing." - [2026-10-01] Market reaction to that same Summary of Opinions release was to scale back October bets, not raise them: "Doves and the Cabinet Office urged caution, and the dollar rose to 157.87 yen as bets on a back-to-back hike in October eased." - [2026-09-19] A detailed unofficial transcript analysis of Ueda's post-September press conference concludes the Governor actively talked down near-term expectations: "he was very clear that the BoJ is not in a hurry to deliver another hike and the chance of another hike in October is virtually non-existent." Ueda tied any consecutive hike to an extreme scenario: "using a large or consecutive hikes depend on whether the risk of inflation rising far above the target is high, or whether inflation has already overshot it... He then cited the US and Europe in 2022-23 as examples." - [2026-10-01] Core (ex-fresh-food) CPI data show inflation actually decelerating rather than accelerating going into October, undercutting the "upside overshoot" trigger Ueda set for a back-to-back move: "Core inflation, which excludes fresh food, eased to 1.7% from 1.8% in July, marking the first slowdown in four months while staying below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a seventh consecutive month." - [2026-09-30] The yen has been stabilizing/strengthening rather than weakening further, removing the acute currency-pass-through pressure that justified the September hike: "The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 157.3900 on September 30, 2026... Over the past month, the Japanese Yen has strengthened 1.47%." - [2026-10-01] OIS-market pricing (a sibling, non-Polymarket gauge) implies the hike remains a minority outcome, with the no-hike/hold scenario still favored: "Oct 30, 2026 | 1.11% | 25.6% | 1.43 | 35.8" (i.e., ~25.6% implied hike probability per that model's post-meeting-rate computation). - [2026-09-30] Reuters-sourced BOJ opinions reporting corroborates that cautious, growth-focused voices were prominent in the same September meeting that produced the hike: "Most opinions backed the hike, while two favoured holding because headline CPI was below 2% and the economy was not clearly strong... Members judged underlying inflation to be close to or at 2%, but said upside price risks remain high." — showing the hawkish case is probabilistic/conditional, not a settled plan for October. - [2026-10-01] Per the same BOJ-watcher's calendar, the next scheduled pre-meeting data points that could move the needle are not until closer to the decision: "Ueda speaks on October 6, and Koeda speaks in Kumamoto on October 15, her first speech since May," with the analyst adding that a hawkish Koeda turn is "unlikely." - [2026-09-18] Resolution-mechanics angle: the BOJ's own newly stated normalization cadence is described as roughly quarterly, i.e. three months between moves (Sept→Dec), not back-to-back meetings, per the analyst's framing that "Remarks by BoJ members in their September meeting show the majority are turning cautious" relative to a market that had priced a full hike by December — implying October is, if anything, premature even under the accelerated cadence already in force. - [2026-09-27] Even the most prominent bull case for an October move (Momma) only assigns it a minority probability and frames December/January as his own base case, not October: "The basic pace will probably be once every three months, but there's also a reasonable chance that the BOJ could raise rates at consecutive meetings... I'd put that possibility at around 20% to 30%." BOTTOM LINE: The freshest primary-adjacent evidence (today's Oct-1 Summary of Opinions release and its market reaction, Ueda's own September press-conference framing, easing core CPI, and a stabilizing yen) all point toward the BOJ holding in October and deferring the next move to December or later, consistent with status-quo inertia and the absence of any historical precedent for back-to-back hikes in this cycle. NOT FOUND: No post-October-1 Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll isolating pure October-only hike probability; no confirmed text of Ueda's scheduled October 6 speech or Koeda's October 15 speech (both occur before the meeting and could still shift the picture either way).