Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC concluded its September meeting with a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023 (does not count toward this market per its rules). The Committee's statement said "Inflation remains elevated" and that "The Committee will deliver price stability." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) showed a hawkish shift: the median participant now expects the fed funds rate to end 2026 at 4.1%, and sixteen of eighteen participants expect one additional rate hike this year, while four participants project two additional hikes. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the inflation fight at his press conference, with one account noting immediately after his remarks the market saw a 49% chance of a hike in October, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, compared with 40% on Wednesday morning, and the chances of at least one more hike this year stood at 87% after Warsh's remarks. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-17] Market context cited for the hike: the September 2026 FOMC hike reflects entrenched inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures revised higher to 3.7%, with a surge in energy prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict further elevating near-term price pressures. https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762 - [2026-09-17] The hike pushed the prime rate to 7.00% effective September 17, and the Fed's official calendar confirms the next two meetings are October 27-28 and December 8-9, 2026 (the latter with an updated SEP/dot plot). https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ - [2026-10-07 scheduled] FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are scheduled for release October 7, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET, which should reveal the degree of internal debate on further tightening; this is confirmed on the Fed's own October 2026 events calendar. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm - [2026-10-01] As of the most recent prediction-market snapshot (observed Oct 1, 6:34 AM ET), traders put the chance of a hike at the October 28 meeting at roughly 37-39% (Kalshi/Polymarket average), down about 30 points in the prior week, with a hold now favored at ~64-65%. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-10-01] The same tracker shows the December 9 meeting priced as more likely to produce a hike than October: Dec. 9 alone: 74%... Oct 28 2026: 36% hike, 67% hold | Dec 9 2026: 76% hike, 22% hold. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-09-30] A separate forecast/odds page (PrimeRates) corroborates the shift, noting Treasury yields "pushed higher as the hawkish turn was confirmed," with the 2-year yield at 4.67% reflecting a higher-for-longer path rather than the cutting cycle priced earlier in 2026. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Analysts flagged a possible moderating factor: MUFG Research noted Warsh remains focused on US fundamentals, but mentioned "spillovers" from other central banks tightening policy could help in the fight to reduce global inflationary pressures, limiting need for further Fed hikes. https://www.mufgresearch.com/rates/september-2026-fomc-recap/ - [2026-10-02] The federalreserve.gov Open Market Operations / monetary policy pages currently show no rate action since the September 16, 2026 decision; the official site is the designated primary resolution source and will post any December decision after the December 8-9 meeting concludes. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm - [2026-09-25] Independent trackers still flag the inflation backdrop as the key justification for further tightening, citing core PCE around 2.8-3.4% as "the main obstacle" to any dovish pivot before year-end. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The Fed delivered a hawkish surprise hike on September 16, 2026 (not counted in this market) and its own September dot plot shows 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike in 2026; current market pricing (as of Oct 1) leans toward a hold at the October 28 meeting but assigns a clearly higher-than-even probability to a hike at the December 8-9 meeting, which is the meeting that would determine this contract's outcome if October is skipped. NOT FOUND: No confirmed FOMC action or emergency rate move between September 17 and October 2, 2026; no October CPI/jobs data yet (September jobs report was due October 2, 2026, same day as this report, and no results were found confirming its content); no post-October-7 minutes content (release is scheduled but has not yet occurred as of today).

- [2026-09-16] The Fed hiked the federal-funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% at its September meeting — the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, the first time the benchmark rate has been increased since 2023 . This September hike is explicitly excluded from this market; only a further hike between Sept 17 and the Dec 8-9 meeting counts. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's own median dot plot now points to one more hike this year: the September Summary of Economic Projections' dot plot showed the median FOMC member expecting an additional 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 , and the median participant now expects the fed funds rate to hike an additional 25bps ending 2026 at 4.1%, no change to the policy rate in 2027 . - [2026-09-16] Breadth of hawkish dots is wide: of 18 participants, twelve meeting participants projected the yearend 2026 fed funds target range to be a quarter-point higher than today's 3.75% to 4.00% target range, and four meeting participants projected two additional quarter-point rate hikes for 2026 — i.e. 16 of 18 dots imply at least one more 2026 hike, with only two in "no change" (and with the Dec meeting being the only 2026 meeting left, this one hike is the "another hike" at stake). - [2026-08-31] Banks have forecast consecutive hikes: Barclays anticipates two more rate hikes this year, in September and December, totaling 50 basis points , a view that has already been half-confirmed by the September move. - [2026-09-29/09-30] Futures-implied pricing (independent FedWatch-style model) shows the December 9, 2026 meeting as the most likely venue for the next move, cumulatively pricing 82.9% chance higher, 90.8% same-or-higher... December 9, 2026... 4.20% higher 90.8% rate level versus today, with the market overall pricing Markets price 93 bp of tightening in total — about 3.7 hikes — across the next 9 meetings (the next meeting is Oct 28, then Dec 9). - [2026-10 est.] At the nearer October 28 meeting, the same futures-implied model shows markets split roughly evenly, with The current market-implied probability of no change is 54% , implying a meaningful chance a hike comes at October instead of/in addition to December, which would still count toward this market since it falls within the window. - [Reference class, historical] Fed tightening cycles rarely stop after just one hike once begun: the actual number of hikes in a given year swings dramatically based on economic conditions, during the aggressive 2022–2023 tightening cycle, the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates at 11 consecutive meetings . More moderate hiking cycles (1994-95, 2015-18, 2004-06) also typically featured multiple consecutive hikes once a cycle began, rather than a single one-off increase. - [2026-10-02] Historical framing: there have been ten completed tightening cycles since 1971, each made up of several individual increases, and an eleventh began on 16 September 2026 — in the base rate of "tightening cycles," the first hike has almost never been a standalone, one-and-done event; it has been followed by at least one more hike within a few months in the vast majority of historical cycles. - [2026-08-07] Earlier in the cycle, sentiment had wavered: CME/Kalshi pricing showed CME's FedWatch tool still sees a 55% chance of a hike in October, and an almost 75% chance in December even after a weak jobs report temporarily cooled hike expectations — illustrating that December has been seen as a likely hike venue for weeks, independent of the September outcome. - [2026-09-16] The prior (2025) comparable "series" episode was a cutting cycle with multiple consecutive moves: The Fed went on a similar path in 2025, holding rates steady until September where they then issued three consecutive cuts to bring the FFR to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% before raising rates again in September 2026 — showing the Fed, once it starts moving in one direction, has recently tended to continue moving in that direction across consecutive meetings rather than pausing after one step. NOT FOUND: A long-run statistical tally of "how often has the Fed hiked at the meeting immediately following a first hike after a long pause" (i.e., a clean % base rate for "second hike within ~3 months of resuming hikes"); precise current CME FedWatch December 2026 hike probability (only third-party reconstructions were available, not the primary CME page itself). BOTTOM LINE: Historically, once the Fed begins a tightening cycle it has almost never stopped after a single hike — multi-meeting hiking sequences are the norm, not the exception — and both the Fed's own September 2026 dot plot (median: one more 2026 hike) and market-implied futures pricing for the December 9, 2026 meeting lean toward at least one additional hike before year-end, making the base-rate/outside-view case for "Yes" unusually strong relative to a typical year.

YES means: the upper bound of the federal funds target range is raised again at some point between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting (via either the October 27–28 or December 8–9 meeting, or an emergency move), building on the September 16 hike to 3.75%–4.00%. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's own September Summary of Economic Projections shows officials described inflation as elevated and domestic spending as resilient, while noting strong productivity growth and capital investment, with September's economic projections showing 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more quarter-point hike before year-end, with 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional quarter-point increase before the end of 2026, and the median projection placing the year-end target range at 4.00%–4.25% — i.e., the Fed's own median path requires exactly the hike this market is asking about. - [2026-09-30] Even after a softer August PCE print, Goldman Sachs — the bank most skeptical of further tightening — did not abandon a December hike: "We are pushing back the second hike in our forecast to December, and we see a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary," meaning December remains Goldman's base case even as its confidence erodes. - [2026-09-30] Goldman Sachs Asset Management's fixed-income chief independently confirmed this as a house view: Kay Haigh told Reuters after the September decision that December was the firm's base case for another increase, and incoming inflation figures and energy prices would influence the decision . - [2026-09-29/30] Fed Governor Michael Barr articulated the hawkish internal case explicitly, citing Fed Governor Michael Barr took a different view at the Detroit Economic Club, saying inflation risks had risen while risks to jobs had eased, pointing to high energy costs, the Middle East conflict and demand tied to AI investment, and noting only two of the past 20 months showed readings in line with 2% core PCE inflation, concluding "In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion" — a sitting voter actively arguing for more tightening, not fewer. - [2026-09-29] Vice Chair John Williams, despite tempering October odds, explicitly kept a 2026 hike alive: Reuters reported on Sep. 29 that he saw "no urgency" to follow September's move with an immediate second hike, but Williams still considered one additional increase this year his base case, with comments supporting waiting for more data rather than abandoning the possibility of another hike . - [2026-09-30] As of that date, CME FedWatch-derived pricing showed the December hike as effectively locked in even as October faded: the FedWatch tool...has [October] at 34.87% after the report, with a hike by December 9 priced at 100% (per FXStreet's read of CME data that day), underscoring that virtually all market participants expect some hike to land within the window before December 9 concludes. - [2026-09-30] A separate independent tracker corroborates a similarly high December number distinct from the October figure: October hike expectations fell to 38.2% from 70.9% a week earlier, while December hike expectations stood at 86% . - [2026-09-30/10-01] The mechanism for a skip-October-hike-December path is explicit in multiple reports: "Coupled with comments from New York Fed President John Williams yesterday, we now think that an October hike is unlikely," Hatzius wrote. "We are pushing back the second hike in our forecast to December, and we see a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary." — note Goldman still has a hike, just relocated to December, consistent with the resolution window. - [2026-10-01] Inflation nowcasts for September, due before the December meeting, point to acceleration rather than relief: inflation (3.4% now) was a different animal then (2.3%); inflation also likely heated up further in September, rising to 3.6%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation projections , giving hawks fresh ammunition ahead of the October CPI (Oct 14) and December SEP. - [2026-09-30] The underlying growth/spending backdrop still supports a "data justifies tightening" narrative even as the inflation print cooled: strengthening activity data noted alongside the PCE release reinforces that the economy has not required an off-ramp from the hiking cycle. - [2026-09-29] Williams' own framing of timing explicitly keeps a hike "later this year" on the table: On 24 September, he said another hike by the end of the year looked like "a reasonable way of thinking about it." - [2026-09-30] Analyst consensus has coalesced around "skip October, hike December" as the median scenario, not "no more hikes": "UBS (Simon Penn) | Pause in October, with a hike in December | 28 September... Goldman Sachs Asset Management | Skip October, with a December hike as the base case" , meaning the dominant Wall Street forecast itself satisfies this market's YES condition. BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely YES path is a hold at the October 27–28 meeting followed by a hike at the December 8–9 meeting — a sequence that is simultaneously the Fed's own median dot-plot outcome, Goldman's (the most dovish major bank's) explicit base case, and the scenario implied by CME-derived December hike pricing (86–100% in late-September trackers), with hawkish internal voices (Barr) and a hot September inflation nowcast (Cleveland Fed 3.6%) providing the data trigger need to justify it. NOT FOUND: The official October 14 September-CPI print and October 2 September-jobs report results were not yet available/confirmed in search results as of this report; no evidence yet of an emergency inter-meeting hike; no primary CME FedWatch page (only third-party reconstructions of its December 2026 probability).

YES means: the FOMC raises the upper bound of the federal funds target rate at least once between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 8–9, 2026 meeting (October 28 hike or December 9 hike, or an emergency move, all count). The NO case here is that the Fed holds at both remaining 2026 meetings and no emergency hike occurs. - [2026-09-29] New York Fed President John Williams said after the September hike that there was "no urgency" to follow it with another increase, explicitly telling markets there was no urgency to act following the central bank's decision to lift rates earlier this month , and separately that he sees "no need for urgency," and noted, "We have time to gather more information." - [2026-10-01] Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson added a second dovish data point, saying the Fed "may take more time to decide the next rate move," echoing comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Wednesday, who said that the Fed is in no rush to tighten monetary policy — two senior, voting officials now publicly counseling patience within the trading window. - [2026-09-30] The August PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in below expectations: data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, with the personal consumption expenditures price index increasing 3.4% on an annual basis, below the 3.7% estimate of economists polled by Reuters , and core PCE registered 3% YoY per FXStreet, with the three-month annualized core inflation rate now running at precisely 2% once revisions are included — the cleanest disinflation signal since the tightening cycle began. - [2026-10-01] Goldman Sachs, previously forecasting an October hike, reversed course, saying it is "pushing back the second hike in our forecast to December, and we see a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary" — a major bank explicitly entertaining a zero-further-hikes outcome, not just a delayed one. - [2026-09-25] J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli argued the cycle may already be over in substance, noting "Inflation continues to look supply-shock-driven, and as such we don't foresee a protracted hiking cycle extending into next year" , framing any further move as a single adjustment rather than confirmation of a hiking cycle the base-rate argument above assumes. - [2026-09-28] UBS analyst Simon Penn flagged an electoral-calendar precedent working against an October hike specifically: markets underestimate the chance of restraint... since 1990, the Fed has never raised rates at an October meeting ahead of a November election... He expects a pause in October and a hike in December — removing October as a likely YES-triggering event and concentrating all remaining hike risk into a single December meeting. - [2026-10-01] Futures-implied odds, even after the hawkish September surprise, still price meaningful hold risk for the only two meetings left in the window: Oct 28 shows Oct 28 2026 | 36% hike, 67% hold and Dec 9 shows Dec 9 2026 | 76% hike, 22% hold , meaning roughly one-in-four-to-one-in-five implied chance the December meeting alone produces a hold, compounding with October's hold-favored pricing. - [2026-10-01] FXStreet's independent CME FedWatch read shows the December hike probability, while rising, is still below a coin-flip-plus-margin: the chance of another rate hike by December stands at 58.7%, up sharply from around 39% a week earlier... Markets are pricing patience. They are not yet pricing victory over inflation — i.e., roughly 4-in-10 odds of no hike even by the final meeting, under one credible tracker. - [2026-10-01] A Kiplinger-cited economist argued the data mix could justify skipping the next meeting on employment-side grounds alone: the Federal Open Market Committee might have room yet to hold in October based on the totality of the circumstances... "we expect the FOMC to remain mindful of inconsistencies between the payroll and household surveys," amid low labor supply growth , a labor-market caveat that could extend into December if September/October payrolls disappoint. - [2026-10-01] Rising long-term yields are already doing some of the Fed's tightening work for it, reducing the case for a policy hike: FXStreet noted that with 10-year and 30-year yields at multi-decade highs, "If markets are already raising mortgage rates, corporate financing costs and other borrowing costs, policymakers may have less need to deliver another immediate increase themselves." (paraphrased from the same analysis's framing, cited above as 22-7 for the preceding quote) — a market-based substitute for Fed action that strengthens the "hold" case independent of inflation data. - [2026-09-30] Even strength in activity data is being read by some strategists as merely supporting "patience" rather than certain action, with the ADP private-payrolls beat and GDP revisions described as creating "a mixture of dovish revisions to inflation and hawkish revisions to growth" (TD Securities), i.e., a genuinely mixed picture rather than one clearly forcing the Fed's hand before December 9. BOTTOM LINE: In just the two weeks since the September hike, the center of gravity among both Fed communications (Williams, Jefferson) and sell-side forecasts (Goldman, JPMorgan's "no protracted cycle" framing) has shifted toward treating September as possibly sufficient, with October a near-certain hold on electoral and "no urgency" grounds and December itself priced at only roughly 60-76% (not near-certain) to produce a hike — leaving a non-trivial, evidence-backed path to a clean NO if softer inflation and labor data continue through the December 9 decision. NOT FOUND: The September 2026 nonfarm payrolls figure itself (due the same morning as this report, October 2) was not available in results; no confirmed reporting yet on any FOMC member formally dissenting toward a hold stance for December; no primary CME FedWatch snapshot fetched directly (relied on third-party reconstructions, which varied between ~59-77% for December).