Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

- [2026-08-19] Trump told reporters he intended to meet later this year with Kim Jong Un, claiming he gets along well with the North Korean leader, though "Yeah, I will," Trump said when asked whether he planned in-person talks with Kim . Attempts the prior year (2025) to broker a summit with Kim during Trump's visit to Asia had fallen through, in part due to logistical issues of arranging a meeting on short notice. (CNN, cnn.com) - [2026-08-19/20] Kim Yo Jong, Kim's sister, denied that there are any communications between Trump and Kim; her statement came hours after the South Korean and U.S. militaries confirmed they were scaling back their 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, which Trump had ordered the Pentagon to "substantially reduce." (abcnews4.com/Reuters) - [2026-08-21] A U.S. State Department spokesperson said "The United States remains open to dialogue with North Korea without preconditions" and "The president and Kim Jong Un will meet again at the appropriate time." Trump may travel to the APEC summit in Shenzhen later in the year, creating an opportunity for a meeting in the region if North Korea proves receptive to renewed engagement, according to a source. (Reuters/US News) - [2026-08-27] Analysis piece concluded Kim walked away from negotiations after Hanoi because he wanted to lock in nuclear status while keeping the uranium enrichment program off the table; North Korea has repeatedly said it won't discuss that program, so there's no urgency for Kim to talk to Trump right now. (Foreign Policy) - [2026-09-23] At UNGA, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said Trump's resolve for a meeting with Kim was "a hard won opportunity for change," and hoped the "long suspended dialogue" between Pyongyang and Washington would resume , but it was not clear if any meeting was actually planned, and Kim Yo Jong said she was not aware of any communication between the two leaders. (CNBC) - [2026-09-24] Trump confirmed in a social media post that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19 , following his state summit with Xi Jinping at the White House. (CNN) - [2026-09-30] Trump called Kim "a friend," saying "as long as I'm around, he's going to be fine" ... "Because he respects me and he likes me." The article noted Trump had earlier said he planned to hold in-person talks with Kim before the end of the year, but North Korea has not formally committed to such a meeting. (Al Jazeera/Reuters) - [2026-09-30] South Korea's National Intelligence Service briefed lawmakers that a US-North Korea summit being held this year appears to have about a 50 percent chance of occurring, with Pyongyang exercising restraint to keep the possibility alive; the NIS said a summit "has about a '50 percent chance of taking place around the time of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conferences.'" North Korea was "keeping the door open to advancing ties with the US amid friendly gestures from Trump, while at the same time presenting prerequisites for dialogue," seeking US recognition as a nuclear-weapon state and urging the US to ditch its "hostile policy." (Korea Herald) - [2026-09-30] The NIS also noted North Korea "is refraining from direct criticism or harsh rhetoric against Trump," which "signals (Pyongyang's) intention not to derail the process" of resuming talks. Separately, the same report noted North Korea has demanded a "clear shift" in Washington's stance on sanctions and denuclearization via statements from Kim Yo-jong and FM Choe Son-hui. (Korea Herald) - [2026-11-18/19] (Scheduled, not yet occurred) The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting will be held in Shenzhen, China, widely cited by officials and analysts as the most plausible venue/window for a potential Trump-Kim encounter, per South Korean NIS assessment above. - [2025-12 timeframe, background] A Carnegie analysis had earlier flagged Kim has categorically refused to contemplate denuclearization in recent years, meaning if Washington and Seoul continue to prioritize denuclearization, there is virtually no chance Kim will see potential value in talks — a structural obstacle that persisted through 2026. - No reporting found of any confirmed date, venue, or formal acceptance by Pyongyang of an in-person Trump-Kim meeting as of October 2, 2026; all public statements remain aspirational on Trump's side and conditional/non-committal on North Korea's side. BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2, 2026, Trump has repeatedly and publicly expressed intent to meet Kim Jong Un before year-end, and South Korean intelligence assesses roughly 50-50 odds centered on the November 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen as the likely window, but North Korea (via Kim Yo Jong) has not confirmed any meeting or direct contact, and its denuclearization-related preconditions remain a significant barrier. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any formal diplomatic channel, scheduled date, confirmed venue, or North Korean government commitment to an actual Trump-Kim meeting in 2026; no reporting of a meeting having taken place as of the report date.

- [2018-06-12] First-ever Trump–Kim meeting occurred at the Singapore Summit; a second summit followed in Hanoi, Vietnam (Feb 2019), and a third, shorter encounter at the DMZ (June 30, 2019), marking the only three in-person Trump–Kim meetings to date. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_trips_made_by_Kim_Jong_Un - [2019-06-30] After the DMZ meeting, no further Trump–Kim in-person meeting occurred for the rest of Trump's first term or during the 2021-2025 Biden term — a gap of over six years — despite periodic rhetorical overtures from Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2025-xx] CNN reported that "Attempts last year to broker a summit with Kim during Trump's visit to Asia fell through, in part due to the logistical issues of arranging a meeting on short notice," showing a concrete recent precedent of a near-miss that did not convert into a meeting. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-19] Trump told reporters "Yeah, I will be" when asked if he expected to see Kim later in 2026, but gave no details on timing or location, continuing a long pattern of expressed intent without confirmed logistics. https://13wham.com/news/nation-world/trump-says-he-plans-to-meet-with-kim-jong-un-at-some-point-in-2026-later-this-year-north-korea-north-korean-leader-57-very-powerful-nuclear-weapons-war-conflict-iran-president-donald-trump - [2026-08-19] Kim Yo Jong, Kim's sister, publicly denied any communications between the two leaders, undercutting Trump's claims of an active dialogue channel. https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/trump-says-he-plans-to-meet-with-kim-jong-un-at-some-point-in-2026-later-this-year-north-korea-north-korean-leader-57-very-powerful-nuclear-weapons-war-conflict-iran-president-donald-trump - [2026-08-21] Reuters analysis noted Pyongyang's response to Trump's overtures was frosty, "suggesting it will set tough conditions to hold such a meeting even if the two men have an 'excellent' relationship," with a State Dept spokesperson saying only that the leaders "will meet again at the appropriate time" — a noncommittal formulation typical of unconfirmed diplomatic processes. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-20/analysis-trump-wants-a-new-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-north-korea-says-not-so-fast - [2026-09-01] South Korea's spy agency assessed a summit was "possible at any time," but analysts were described as "sceptical of imminent talks," and Trump's October 2025 statement that he was "100 percent" open to meeting Kim again "have gone unanswered" by Pyongyang — indicating repeated U.S. openness has not historically been matched by North Korean reciprocity. https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/01/us-north-korea-summit-appears-to-be-possible-at-any-time-seoul-spy-agency-says - [2026-09-23] At the UN General Assembly, South Korea's President Lee called Trump's resolve for a meeting with Kim "a hard won opportunity for change," but it remained "not clear if any meeting was actually planned," and Kim Yo Jong again denied any communication — reinforcing the gap between expressed intent and confirmed process. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/lee-jae-myung-trump-kim-summit-north-korea.html - [2026-09-30] Most recent reporting shows Trump still calling Kim "a friend" and saying he had "earlier said he planned to hold in-person talks with Kim before the end of the year," but confirms "North Korea has not formally committed to such a meeting," the clearest statement to date that no summit has been scheduled. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/30/trump-calls-kim-jong-un-a-friend-and-plays-down-n-koreas-nuclear-arsenal - [2025-12-xx] A Diplomat preview of North Korea's 2026 strategy flagged April 2026 (Trump's planned Beijing trip) as the "crucial date," with Pyongyang "highly likely to suppress major strategic provocations ... until after this visit" to keep open the door for a possible sidelines summit — an identified but unconfirmed structural opportunity. https://thediplomat.com/2025/12/previewing-north-koreas-grand-strategy-for-2026/ - [2026-08-xx] FT-sourced reporting said the White House was "eyeing" a possible Trump-Kim meeting around a November 2026 China leaders' gathering, but this remained an internal planning idea rather than a scheduled event. https://www.jfeed.com/news-world/trump-kim-jong-un-summit-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for "stated U.S. intent to meet Kim" converting into an actual meeting has been poor in the post-2019 era — Trump has repeatedly voiced willingness (2025, Aug/Sep 2026) without any confirmed meeting materializing, and a 2025 Asia-trip attempt fell through on logistics; North Korea has consistently avoided formal commitment and set new preconditions (no denuclearization talk), suggesting the historical/structural pattern favors continued delay or non-occurrence rather than a quick repeat of the 2018-19 summit cadence. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any formally scheduled or confirmed Trump-Kim meeting date/location as of early October 2026; no betting-market or pollster-specific historical track record on Trump-Kim summit predictions was found.

YES means: Trump and Kim Jong Un are in-person, interacting, at some point between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-05-14] On Trump's first China trip of his second term (a three-day Beijing visit), a senior South Korean foreign ministry official said preparations for a summit between Trump and Kim appeared almost nonexistent, but the possibility could not be ruled out, adding "We shall have to wait and see." This confirms the April/May Beijing trip flagged by 38 North as a potential "opening" passed without a meeting, making the November APEC Shenzhen trip the sole remaining 2026 window — and Seoul's own officials were still unwilling to rule it out even with zero visible prep, showing how quickly a Trump-Kim encounter can be floated right up to the moment of a trip. (koreatimes.co.kr) - [2026-02] A 38 North analysis argued if no engagement occurs by the end of 2026, the prospects for a summit during Trump's second term drop precipitously due to a looming political cliff, since if Democrats retake the House in the November midterms Trump will likely be consumed by oversight and potential impeachment hearings — implying maximum US urgency to lock in a meeting now, before that window closes, rather than letting it slip to 2027. (38north.org) - [2026-02] The same analysis noted the APEC Shenzhen summit specifically "could be the final chance for Trump to secure the 'peacemaker' legacy deal he clearly desires before the political dynamics in Washington shift," framing November 2026 as a legacy-driven, high-motivation target date rather than an open-ended aspiration. (38north.org) - [2026-08-18] WSJ (via SBS) reported Trump has personally asked his aides to push for a summit with Kim as early as this fall , with Victor Cha of CSIS assessing that "President Trump has made it clear that he wants to meet Chairman Kim again," and that the military-exercise cutback was partly to show Kim concrete seriousness about negotiations — demonstrating Trump is already spending real policy capital (not just rhetoric) to engineer the meeting. (news.sbs.co.kr) - [2026-08-19] The same reporting notes a structural precedent for last-minute success: Trump pushed for a meeting with Kim during his Asia tour in 2025 and North Korea sent positive signals behind the scenes, but it failed only due to tight scheduling — i.e., the obstacle was logistics/timing, not a lack of mutual will, which argues the same near-miss could convert to a meeting given a longer lead time this time (APEC is ~7 weeks out as of Oct 2). (news.sbs.co.kr) - [2026-08/2026-09] A Diplomat piece by Joel Wit, who worked the original 2019 DMZ summit, stresses that "The 2019 snap summit at the DMZ was a mesmerizing reality show, for which there had been no preparation – but it almost worked" — establishing precedent that a Trump-Kim meeting does not require months of formal diplomatic preparation and can be arranged within days if both leaders are in the region and willing, undercutting arguments that "no official preparations yet" (as of Oct 2) rules out a 2026 meeting. (thediplomat.com) - [2026-09-16] Foreign Policy reported Kim may be using renewed engagement to introduce his daughter as his successor on the world stage, noting Trump said in August he expected to meet Kim later this year, while South Korean intelligence assessed a summit could become possible at any time — giving Kim a domestic/dynastic incentive (beyond sanctions relief) to actually sit down with Trump rather than merely issue statements. (foreignpolicy.com) - [2026-09-29/30] Trump's newest public remarks show undiminished personal investment: he called Kim "a friend," said "He happens to be a friend of mine, Kim Jong Un, he's a friend of mine. He likes Trump, doesn't like a lot of other people. I'm about the only person in the entire world that he likes, and I like him" — rhetoric far more personally warm than typical pre-summit posturing, consistent with a leader actively angling for a reunion rather than letting the idea drop. (aljazeera.com) - [2026-09-24] Trump has now concretely locked in his own travel plans, confirming he will attend the Shenzhen APEC summit (Nov 18–19) after a White House state summit with Xi — removing one major variable (whether Trump will even be in the region) that caused the 2025 near-miss, and leaving only North Korean reciprocation as the remaining prerequisite. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a repeat of 2019's rapid, lightly-prepared snap summit, timed to Trump's already-confirmed November 18–19 Shenzhen APEC trip — backed by sustained, escalating personal rhetoric from Trump, concrete US concessions (scaled-back drills), a State Department that says the leaders "will meet again at the appropriate time," and Seoul officials/NIS who have repeatedly refused to rule it out even amid "no formal preparations," closely mirroring the logistics-only failure of the 2025 attempt that this time has a longer lead time to resolve. NOT FOUND: No confirmed North Korean acceptance, no announced itinerary item, and no reporting of concrete bilateral contact (e.g., a revived "New York channel" exchange) specific to the November 2026 APEC window as of October 2, 2026.

YES means: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un are physically present together and interact in person at any point between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 (e.g., at the Shenzhen APEC summit, DMZ, or elsewhere). - [2026-09-21/30] A newly escalating inter-Korean crisis is unfolding: three South Korean soldiers were injured by landmines in the DMZ on Sept. 21, and by Sept. 29-30 the UN Command and South Korea's defense minister had formally concluded "North Korea violated the 73-year-old Korean War armistice after investigators found a North Korean anti-personnel mine buried on the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone" , with Seoul's defense minister saying "This is a clear violation of the armistice agreement, and since North Korea bears responsibility, we will take corresponding measures." https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2026/09/29/seoul-says-north-korean-dmz-landmine-blast-violation-of-armistice/237004 - [2026-09-30] North Korea flatly denied the charge, with North Korea denying responsibility for the incident and accusing the South of making groundless allegations , and Kim Yo Jong separately threatened "immediate, merciless retaliation" if South Korea fires live rounds — a live military flashpoint that sits directly athwart any Trump-Kim rapprochement track. https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2026-09-30/north-korea-mines-dmz-armistice-23012081.html - [2026-10-01] Even sympathetic U.S. voices are only lobbying for preliminary groundwork, not an imminent summit: Reps. Sherman and Chu's joint statement explicitly called for the U.S. to first revisit the North Korea travel ban, negotiate liaison offices, and pursue a peace treaty — process steps that "would lay the groundwork for a productive and successful summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un" — implying no such summit groundwork yet exists. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/20261001/2-us-lawmakers-welcome-trumps-efforts-to-restart-dialogue-with-n-koreas-kim - [2025-10-18, precedent] Exactly this "APEC sidelines meeting" scenario was floated before the prior (Gyeongju, South Korea) APEC summit, when South Korea's own ambassador to Washington said "while both Trump and Kim have expressed openness to dialogue, no concrete plans for a meeting have emerged" — and that summit came and went with Trump admitting "a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would not take place due to timing issues" , the direct precedent for the 2026 Shenzhen APEC scenario currently being discussed in near-identical terms. https://www.newsonair.gov.in/no-trump-kim-meeting-expected-at-upcoming-apec-summit-says-south-korean-ambassador / https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/29/korea-Donald-Trump-APEC-Kim-Jong-Un-Gyeongju-meeting-summit/8391761728517/ - [2026-08-27] Analysts note the structural rationale for Kim's reticence has not changed: North Korea continues to insist on recognition as a nuclear power and rejects denuclearization as a topic, and "the rogue state has thrown cold water on his overtures so far" despite Trump's repeated push for a meeting by year-end. https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/27/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump-meeting-nuclear/ - [2026-09-01] Seoul-based analysis found "there appears to be little incentive for dialogue" for Pyongyang given it is "one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Russia-Ukraine war" and the deepening bloc confrontation, and noted Trump's October 2025 "100 percent" openness to meeting Kim "have gone unanswered" for nearly a year. https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/01/us-north-korea-summit-appears-to-be-possible-at-any-time-seoul-spy-agency-says - [2026-09-30] As recently as this date, reporting confirms the core fact pattern remains unchanged from a year of false starts: Trump and Kim met three times in 2018 and 2019 and nothing since, while Trump's latest comments still lack any confirmed date or venue. BOTTOM LINE: Status-quo inertia strongly favors NO: every "imminent summit" cycle since October 2025 (Gyeongju APEC, the August 2026 "I will" remarks, the September UNGA exchange) has ended in North Korean non-commitment or outright denial, Pyongyang's core precondition (no denuclearization talk, nuclear-power recognition) remains unresolved, and a fresh, escalating armistice-violation dispute over DMZ landmines (Sept 21-30, 2026) with mutual threats of "corresponding measures" and "merciless retaliation" has opened a new diplomatic rupture just as the Shenzhen APEC window approaches — precisely the kind of friction that derailed the 2025 Gyeongju near-miss. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, venue, or North Korean government acceptance of a Trump-Kim meeting; no evidence the DMZ landmine dispute has been resolved or that it has altered APEC planning as of October 2, 2026.