US strike on Colombia by December 31?

- [2026-01-03] Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured and flown out of the country by US forces, following months of US strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Pacific. This major regional escalation did not extend to a land strike inside Colombia. - [2026-01-05 to 2026-01-08] At the height of tensions, Trump said Petro should "watch his a**" after Maduro's capture, and when asked by reporters if a similar operation against Petro's government was planned, Trump said "it sounds good to me." A 35-minute phone call between Trump and Petro followed, described by Colombia as "a good and positive call," with follow-up arrangements made between Secretary of State Rubio and Colombia's foreign minister , which defused the immediate crisis without any strike occurring. - [2026-05-31/06-21] Abelardo de la Espriella defeated left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia's runoff election on 21 June 2026 with 49.66% to Cepeda's 48.70% , ending Petro's presidency and the primary source of Trump-Petro hostility. - [2026-08-07] De la Espriella has served as the 36th president of Colombia since taking office in August 2026 ; he expressed support for the Trump administration's campaign of military strikes against vessels suspected of carrying drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific , signaling alignment rather than confrontation with Washington. - [2026-09-08] Atlantic Council analysis notes a photo of Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella saluting next to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio... at the Batallon Paraiso military complex in Barranquilla, Colombia, on September 8, 2026 , reflecting close bilateral security cooperation under the new government. - [2026-09-17] Despite close alignment, the Trump administration decided to maintain Colombia's decertification on anti-drug cooperation, though an active $52 million aid package continues to support military pressure on coca eradication and interdiction , placing Colombia at a decertification level alongside Afghanistan, Bolivia and Myanmar even under the friendlier government. - [2026-09-19] As of 19 September 2026, at least 234 people had been killed in at least 78 strikes on over 79 vessels, and the US had made its first strike on a land target within Venezuela — but no land strike inside Colombia has occurred to date. - [2026-09-26] Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella has emerged as a close ally of the Trump administration in South America , evidenced by Colombia's extradition of an alleged armed-group leader, Geovany Andres Rojas, to US custody that day — a cooperative law-enforcement act rather than confrontation. - [2026-09-30] A US federal judge (Paul Engelmayer) rejected two of the three legal privileges the government claimed to keep secret a legal memo behind the boat strikes , with more than 70 strikes and about 230 deaths in the Caribbean and Pacific since September 2025 — ongoing scrutiny remains focused on maritime boat strikes, not land strikes in Colombia. - [2026-09-18] Separately, internal Colombian conflict dynamics show drone attacks by armed groups in Colombia surged 146% in the first five months of 2026 compared with 2025, killing 21 people and wounding 145, according to the Ombudsman's Office — these are rebel-on-government/civilian drone attacks, not US strikes, and would not qualify under this market's resolution criteria. - [2026-09-13] De la Espriella has launched an all-out war against drug-funded militias since taking office in August, ending the previous "Total Peace" strategy and leading to the deadliest month of clashes since 2018 — this is a Colombian-government-led crackdown, not a US military action on Colombian soil. - No source found of any US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike having physically impacted Colombian territory at any point in 2025–2026; all documented US strikes remain maritime (boats) or, since September 2026, limited to land targets in Venezuela. BOTTOM LINE: The acute Trump-Petro confrontation that in late 2025/early 2026 repeatedly floated possible US strikes on Colombian soil has been superseded by the August 2026 inauguration of pro-Trump President de la Espriella, under whom US-Colombia relations have shifted to close security cooperation (extraditions, joint military photo-ops, aid, rhetorical alignment) rather than confrontation; no US strike on Colombian soil has occurred, and current trajectory (cooperation, not coercion) makes a qualifying strike in the remaining Oct–Dec 2026 window far less likely than it appeared under Petro. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any specific US strike having hit Colombian territory as of October 1, 2026; no reports of imminent/planned US strikes on Colombia under the de la Espriella government; no official Polymarket-sourced resolution data (excluded per instructions).

- [2026-01-05] After the US captured Maduro, Trump said military action against Colombia "sounds good to me" when asked directly by a reporter — the first time a sitting US president publicly floated action against Colombia, but no strike followed within that news cycle. US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened military action against Colombia's government, telling reporters that such an operation "sounds good to me." - [2025-10-19 to 2026-02] Despite months of escalating rhetoric (Trump calling Petro a "drug leader," threatening to "close up" cocaine production, repeated statements that land strikes were coming "very soon"), no US strike on Colombian soil materialized in that window; tensions were defused diplomatically. Trump's comments come amid mounting tensions in the Caribbean, where the U.S. has amassed forces since September. While Washington has so far only attacked alleged drug boats, killing at least 80 people, Trump said on Tuesday he plans to expand the campaign to land strikes "very soon." - [2026-02-04] Rather than a unilateral US strike, the outcome of peak tension was a negotiated joint US–Colombia intelligence/military arrangement targeting named cartel bosses, following a Trump–Petro White House meeting. Petro and his US counterpart agreed at the White House on Tuesday to joint military and intelligence actions against three Colombian capos, who together produce and supply much of the world's cocaine. - [2026-08 (per "45 days ago" article)] The reference class shifted from threats toward consensual arrangements: Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras reportedly agreed to let the US conduct joint operations on their soil (following Ecuador), rather than the US unilaterally striking. Pete Hegseth announced last week during a visit to Panama that Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras had agreed to allow the U.S. to carry out joint military operations against criminal groups on their soil, following Ecuador, which launched similar missions with the U.S. in March. - [2026-09-23] Colombia's new president (Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in the disputed May 2026 vote) has emphasized that US support will remain intelligence/technology-based rather than involve US "boots on the ground," per Colombia's VP — indicating the new government's framing discourages a unilateral US strike narrative. Vice President José Manuel Restrepo said US support means intelligence and technology, not boots on the ground. - [2026-09-19] The broader Operation Southern Spear campaign had by this date killed over 230 people in ~68-78 vessel strikes and made its first-ever land strike within Venezuela, but still zero confirmed land strikes within Colombia — Colombia remains the one regional "threat target" where only sea/boat strikes (and none on home soil) have occurred to date. As of 19 September 2026, at least 234 people had been killed (including 17 who are missing and presumed dead) in at least 78 strikes on over 79 vessels and the US had made its first strike on a land target within Venezuela. - [2026-05 (per Polymarket archive)] A reference-class sibling market, "How many different countries will the US strike in February?" resolved to "≤1" — meaning only Venezuela (not Colombia) saw a qualifying strike through February 2026, despite the intense January war of words. This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. (Final outcome: ≤1.) - [2026-01-08 (approx.)] Early Polymarket pricing for a "strike on Colombia by end of year" style contract, created right after the Maduro raid at a moment of peak tension, implied low-probability odds. By Thursday afternoon, Polymarket users saw just 9% odds that the US would launch a strike on Colombia by the end of the year. - [historical analog] The only confirmed US land strike in the entire Operation Southern Spear/Lance campaign (Sept 2025–present) occurred in Venezuela, not Colombia, despite Colombia being named as a target repeatedly; this is the closest comparable base-rate event, and it took roughly 13 months of boat strikes before the first land strike anywhere in the region occurred. The attack marked an escalation on land following months of deadly strikes against suspected narcotics shipments... U.S. President Donald Trump said the strike he authorized this month destroyed a key drug facility along the Venezuelan coast. - [2026-02-13] Even amid continued "don't worry about it" non-denials from Trump about land strikes on Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, none had occurred in Colombia specifically by this date, a full 10 weeks after the Maduro operation. Virtually every action Trump has taken in the region—from the "drug boat" bombings in the Caribbean Sea to the midnight abduction of Maduro—would suggest that land strikes on Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela are very much something to worry about. BOTTOM LINE: Over roughly 13 months of an aggressive, expanding US counter-narcotics military campaign in the region — including dozens of threats specifically naming Colombia, a captured foreign head of state (Venezuela), and the region's first-ever land strike (also in Venezuela, not Colombia) — the US has never struck Colombian soil, and the trend since early-to-mid 2026 has been toward negotiated "joint operations" and diplomatic de-escalation rather than unilateral strikes; sibling prediction markets and reference-class events (e.g., "≤1 country struck" resolving true for Feb 2026) consistently point to a low historical base rate for this specific outcome materializing in any given ~2-3 month window. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any confirmed or credibly reported US strike on Colombian soil at any point through early October 2026; could not find a dedicated expert/analyst base-rate study quantifying the likelihood (beyond prediction-market pricing itself, which this report is instructed not to cite).

YES means: a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically impacts Colombian soil (or inland waters/ports) between now and 31 Dec 2026, and this is credibly reported/confirmed within 2 days of the close. - [2026-08-12] At the Panama anti-cartel conference, Pete Hegseth announced that newly inaugurated Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella had authorized joint military operations with the US to target drug cartels, making Colombia the 19th member of the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition, with Hegseth quoting Colombia's request that the Department of War "join Colombia in its fight against narco-terrorism, authorizing joint military operations to destroy terrorist and terror networks." This is a standing, publicly announced legal/political mechanism for US strikes inside Colombia that did not exist under Petro. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense/4685357/colombia-president-joint-military-drug-cartels-lethal-hegseth-abelardo-espriella/ - [2026-08-12] Per the Wikipedia Operation Southern Spear timeline, Colombia is now listed as a belligerent on the "Shield of the Americas" side "since August 2026," formally embedding Colombia inside the same US-led coalition structure under which Venezuela and Ecuador land strikes already occurred. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Southern_Spear - [2026-08-12] Hegseth stated explicitly that Bogotá "has already requested that the (Pentagon) join Colombia in its fight against narco-terrorism, authorising joint military operations to destroy terrorist and terror networks," and separately de la Espriella "has said he will intensify air strikes against guerrillas and drug traffickers and has offered to host US troops on Colombian soil." https://www.trtworld.com/article/718655f4cf23 - [2026-05 (campaign pledge, pre-election)] Before taking office, de la Espriella explicitly campaigned on a "shock plan" to resume airstrikes on jungle camps and poison coca crops with US aircraft, saying "We'll start immediately with the bombing of narco-terrorist camps and with fumigation," showing the sitting president's own stated policy preference is for US-assisted aerial bombing on Colombian soil, not merely passive cooperation. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/colombia-election-favorite-vows-us-174508586.html - [2026-03-06] The regional precedent for crossing from "joint ops talk" to an actual US-executed land strike against a group "mainly based in southern Colombia" already exists: American and Ecuadorian forces carried out "lethal kinetic strikes" against a Comandos de la Frontera training camp in Ecuador "at the request of Ecuador," a group made up of former FARC members "mainly based in southern Colombia, with some operations inside Ecuador." The same operational template (US strike against a Colombia-linked narco-terror target, executed with host-nation invitation) needs only to be aimed a few kilometers further north to qualify. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-ecuador-strike-suspected-drug-230721350.html - [2026-08-13] Hegseth additionally stated that in August 2026, while in Panama, he proclaimed a military agreement with Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras, adding that "like the attacks on boats that the U.S. had been conducting in the East Pacific and the Caribbean, the attacks on drug traffickers on land would be the same" — an explicit US statement that boat-strike-style lethal action is intended to extend to land targets in partner countries including Colombia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Southern_Spear - [2026-08-13] Separately, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the newly inaugurated government of Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella had formally requested joint military operations with US forces on Colombian soil, explicitly placing US forces (not merely intelligence/advisory personnel) as operating on Colombian territory under this framework. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/08/15/pqka-a15.html - [2026-09-19 to 09-30] The underlying ELN/Gulf Clan targets that Hegseth has already struck at sea (e.g., a strike on a drug smuggling vessel affiliated with Colombia's ELN ) remain active FTO-designated land-based groups inside Colombia; ongoing litigation (the Sept 30 Engelmayer ruling) shows the legal "kinetic strike" authority the administration is defending is the same framework that could be extended onto Colombian soil without new legislative action. - [2026-09-23] Domestic escalation gives a plausible trigger: a military operation against the drug-related armed group Conquering Self Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada (ACSN) in Santa Marta followed an armed group attacking shops and burning vehicles, prompting de la Espriella to send troops into the city. Any escalation of such clashes (ACSN, Gulf Clan, ELN, FARC dissidents) could prompt de la Espriella — who already favors US air support — to formally request a US strike under the August joint-ops authorization. - [2026-09-19 (ACLED data)] Colombia has become the epicentre of drone warfare in Latin America, with 97 of 182 recorded municipalities with weaponized drone events being Colombian, and incidents rising from ~150 in 2025 to nearly 200 so far in 2026, indicating a target-rich, high-intensity conflict environment in which a US strike (even a single CIA/SOUTHCOM drone hit on a lab or camp, analogous to the Dec 2025 Venezuela land strike) could plausibly be folded into the existing joint-operations authorization at any time. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is not a hostile unilateral US strike (as under Petro) but a consensual one: Colombia's government has formally requested and authorized joint US military operations "to destroy terrorist and terror networks" on its own soil, the sitting president campaigned explicitly on US-backed aerial bombing of narco camps, and the US has already executed an analogous land strike in neighboring Ecuador against a Colombia-based group — meaning the political/legal barrier to a qualifying strike is now much lower than before, and only an actual trigger incident or targeting decision is needed before 31 Dec 2026. NOT FOUND: No confirmed instance of a US strike having yet occurred inside Colombian territory; no specific reported date/target for a planned Colombia land strike; no official DoD/SOUTHCOM statement timing an imminent operation inside Colombia (as opposed to Ecuador/Venezuela).

YES means: a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically impacts ground territory within Colombia (rivers, lakes, ports included) between now and Dec 31, 2026, and this is confirmed by consensus credible reporting within two days of the deadline — otherwise the market resolves NO even if a strike is later confirmed. - [2026-09-25] Colombia's own Vice President stated explicitly that under the Trump security alliance, Colombian forces — not U.S. troops — will carry out operations inside the country , with US support framed only as intelligence and technology, not boots on the ground — the clearest on-record statement from the current Colombian government ruling out a US-executed strike model, as opposed to joint/host-nation operations. (foxnews.com) - [2026-08-07] As of de la Espriella's inauguration, the vaunted "Plan Patriota 2.0" security pact was still unsigned: Nothing is signed. There is no treaty, memorandum or basing accord. What exists is planning, a Pentagon meeting and an official's social-media post. What was actually under discussion was Intelligence sharing, extradition, helicopters and counter-drone equipment, a regional training centre in Colombia, and a possible return to aerial coca spraying — none of which constitutes a US-launched kinetic strike. (riotimesonline.com) - [2026-08-07] Notably, Marco Rubio was not among the US officials present at the inauguration despite his later September visit, and Gustavo Petro, his family and former interior minister Armando Benedetti remain on the US sanctions list — showing residual friction even within the "alliance," but channeled through sanctions/diplomacy, not strikes. (riotimesonline.com) - [2026-09-17] A CNN en Español/KRDO analysis as recently as two weeks before question's current date concluded that despite the Trump–de la Espriella alignment, De la Espriella's arrival on 7 August marked a turn toward direct alignment with the US government, after four years of diplomatic conflict between former president Petro and Trump , but also found that the current diplomatic picture shows that ideological closeness on security has not guaranteed automatic economic reciprocity; military agreements are strengthening through technical assistance and intelligence help, while the trade front remains essentially frozen — i.e., even the pro-Trump government has not translated alignment into any joint/unilateral strike activity inside Colombia by mid-September. - [2026-09-25] Underlining host-nation primacy, de la Espriella's response to internal armed-group violence (the Santa Marta unrest) was to send troops into Santa Marta after an armed group attacked shops and burnt vehicles — a purely Colombian military deployment, not a request for or use of US strikes, even amid active unrest that could have been a trigger point. - [2026-09-26] Colombia's extradition of Geovany Andres Rojas to the US is a cooperative law-enforcement/judicial mechanism — the US...has sought to expand military operations across Latin America under the pretext of combating crime...Colombia's new president has aligned himself closely with those efforts, scrapping peace talks and launching military operations against armed groups since taking office in August — but these are Colombian-led military operations against armed groups, not US strikes on Colombian soil. - [2026-08-14] Human-rights monitors flagged the alliance's risk but confirmed no strikes have occurred: Justice for Colombia's review found the new government's deal has agreed to carry out joint military operations with US forces, which could involve US strikes against targets on Colombian territory — phrased as a future conditional risk, not a realized event, and noted this decision is in violation of the Colombian constitution under which it is up to the Senate to decide on the presence of foreign troops on Colombian territory , meaning any actual US unilateral strike would also face an unresolved domestic legal/constitutional barrier that has not been cleared as of this writing. - [2026 historical reference] Even during the Petro era of open hostility, when Trump administration officials repeatedly threatened land strikes and the ELN called a nationwide protest strike over fears of "imperialist intervention," no actual US strike on Colombian soil occurred during that acute window — the threats consistently de-escalated into joint/diplomatic arrangements (the Feb 4 Trump–Petro capo-targeting pact, visible in the France24 report) rather than unilateral US kinetic action, reinforcing that even peak-tension rhetoric has a strong historical pattern of not converting into a literal US strike. - [Resolution-criteria technicality] The rules require that any strike be confirmed "by a consensus of credible reporting" within two days of the Dec 31 deadline for a YES; given the current information environment around Colombia is dominated by maritime boat-strike reporting and Colombian-government-led land operations, any ambiguous, disputed, or initially-unconfirmed incident (e.g., a joint-operation strike where it's unclear if US or Colombian forces fired the ordnance) would default to NO under the literal rule, even if later clarified — a structural bias toward NO given the "joint operations, host-nation primacry" model now in place. BOTTOM LINE: The governing facts as of late September 2026 show Colombia's new government has deliberately structured US involvement as intelligence/training support with Colombian forces doing the actual strikes, the flagship "Plan Patriota 2.0" remains unsigned with no operational timeline, and even under the openly hostile Petro era no US strike on Colombian soil ever materialized despite months of explicit threats — all of which argue strongly for continuation of the zero-incidence status quo through Dec 31, 2026, reinforced by a resolution clause that defaults ambiguous or unconfirmed incidents to NO. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any signed US-Colombia operational agreement authorizing unilateral US strikes on Colombian soil as of early October 2026; no reporting of any planned or imminent US strike inside Colombia; no instance of a "joint operation" having actually been executed with US ordnance inside Colombian territory to date.