Will there be more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? — Above 12

- [2026-10-01] The NHC's official East Pacific basin tracker shows season totals (as of 21 UTC Oct 1, 2026): Actual activity for EPAC: 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, ACE 161.1 , meaning the Eastern Pacific basin alone has recorded 7 hurricanes of Cat 1+ so far this season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?season=2026&basin=epac). - [2026-10-01] The NHC EPAC storm table lists 19 systems to date, with the most recent being Tropical Depression "Nineteen-E" (29 Sep–01 Oct) and Hurricane Rachel (27 Sep–01 Oct, reaching major-hurricane status), indicating the basin remains active into October (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?season=2026&basin=epac). - [2026-09-27] An earlier snapshot of the same NHC tracker (27 Sept 2026) showed the EPAC-only count at 16 named storms and 6 hurricanes, 4 of them major — confirming the hurricane count rose from 6 to 7 in the final days of September (https://nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?amp=&amp=&basin=epac&season=2026). - [2026-09-30] NASA's Earth Observatory reported that combining the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, by September 28 the number of named storms in the region had grown to 20, of which nine had reached hurricane strength, versus a 1991-2020 average by that date of 13.5 named storms with 7.4 hurricanes (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/powerful-storms-continue-to-prowl-the-pacific). - [2026-09-29] Hurricane Polo, the season's most intense storm, made landfall in Baja California Sur around 11 p.m. local time on September 28, having undergone extreme rapid intensification to Category 5 status on September 22 (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/powerful-storms-continue-to-prowl-the-pacific). - [2026-09-29] Weather West noted that it has already been a remarkable East Pacific hurricane season, with three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) directly impacting the Hawaiian Islands (https://weatherwest.com/archives/44085). - [2026-09-04] Wire coverage described Hurricane Lowell as a major Category 3 storm with sustained winds of about 125 mph, located south-southwest of Honolulu , part of a three-hurricane simultaneous outbreak in early September (https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2026-09-04/pacific-hurricane-hits-peak-activity-as-major-storms-rapidly-intensify). - [2026-09-22] NOAA's basin summary (21 Sept) put the eastern Pacific at 5 hurricanes before the late-September surge that produced Nolo, Odalys, Polo and Rachel in quick succession, per sequential NHC snapshots (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=epac). - [2026-01-01→2026-09-30 forecast context] CPC's pre-season outlook had called for 15-22 named storms, of which 9-14 are expected to become hurricanes, and 5-9 of those are expected to become major hurricanes , a range whose lower hurricane bound (9) already sits above the market's "more than 12" threshold only if the season continues to add 5-6 more hurricanes (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/). - [2026-10-01] Wikipedia's season tracker (updated through early Oct) corroborates the NHC figures, listing EPAC actual activity as 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, ACE 161.1 , matching the NHC primary table (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2026-09-30] The same NASA/NHC data confirm the season still has two months of peak-to-late season activity remaining (through Nov 30 close of season, Dec 1 market close), historically a period that can still add several more hurricanes in an above-normal year like 2026 (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/powerful-storms-continue-to-prowl-the-pacific). BOTTOM LINE: As of October 1, 2026, the NHC's official Eastern Pacific-only count stands at 7 hurricanes (5 of them major), meaning the market needs 6 more Cat-1+ EPAC hurricanes between now and December 1 to cross the "more than 12" threshold; with ~2 months of season remaining (peak activity already passed its climatological high but the season has been unusually prolific, including three Category 5 storms) this is a stretch but not implausible given the above-normal NOAA/CPC outlook and the season's current pace. NOT FOUND: No separate/sibling Kalshi or other prediction-market strike levels (e.g., "above 15" or specific sub-date strikes) were found in the search results; no explicit NHC forecast update issued after October 1, 2026 was available.

- [2026-05-21] NOAA's official Eastern Pacific outlook called for an above-normal season with a 70% probability of 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes , driven by an anticipated strong El Niño (https://headlines.ametsoc.org/2026/05/22/eastern-pacific-hurricane-season-begins/). - [2026-08-06] NOAA's mid-season update kept the Eastern Pacific outlook unchanged at 15-22 named storms, which is above average, with seven named storms so far, of which two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season). - [2026-10-01] The NHC's official season-to-date tally (East Pacific basin only, excluding Central Pacific) shows Named Storms 17 (+5 vs normal), Hurricanes 7 (0 vs normal), Major Hurricanes 5 (+2 vs normal), Total ACE 176.4 (+91%) as of 21 UTC October 1, 2026 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?season=2026&basin=epac). - [2020-2020] The 1991–2020 climatological average for the Eastern Pacific basin alone is 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes per season, meaning a season with 13+ EPAC hurricanes is well above average (https://www.noaa.gov/tropical-cyclone-climatology). - [2023-01-01] Reference-class record: Wikipedia's season tables (sourced from NHC data) list the record-high EPAC hurricane count as 16 in 2015, with most other seasons—including very active ones—falling well under 13; e.g. 2023 (an El Niño year) had 10 hurricanes, and 1983 (a strong El Niño year) had 12, not 13+ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Pacific_hurricane_season; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2026-01-01] Only a small minority of EPAC seasons on record have exceeded 12 hurricanes (notably 1984 with 13, and 2015 with 16); most "hyperactive"/El Niño-driven seasons (1982, 1983, 1985, 2018, 2023) still topped out at 9-12 hurricanes, suggesting the >12 threshold is historically a tail outcome even in favorable years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_hurricane; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2026-10-01] With 7 EPAC hurricanes confirmed through October 1 and the season's most climatologically active window (July–September) now largely behind it, the market needs 6 more hurricanes in the remaining ~2 months (Oct–Nov, before the Nov 30 season end/Dec 1 market close) to clear 12; this would require an unusually hurricane-heavy late season even by the standards of a hyperactive, El Niño-enhanced year (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?season=2026&basin=epac). - [2026-09-xx] The season has already produced multiple major hurricanes (Genevieve, Karina, Lowell [Cat 5], Odalys, Polo, Rachel), indicating strong storm intensity this year, but hurricane count growth has been more modest than named-storm growth, consistent with many 2026 systems peaking at tropical-storm strength (Douglas, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Norbert) rather than hurricane strength (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_hurricane_season). BOTTOM LINE: Historically only a small fraction of Eastern Pacific seasons (even strong El Niño/"hyperactive" years) have exceeded 12 hurricanes—climatological average is 8, and the record high is 16 (2015)—so the >12 threshold represents a true tail outcome; 2026 is running above-average (7 hurricanes by Oct 1 versus an NHC-tracked normal of 7 at this point) but would still need an unusually active Oct–Nov to add 6 more hurricanes and clear the threshold before the season winds down. NOT FOUND: A precise year-by-year complete table of EPAC-only hurricane counts for every season (only select seasons were available via search); any formal third-party or bookmaker base-rate estimate specific to this Kalshi contract.

YES means: more than 12 (i.e., 13 or more) Eastern Pacific hurricanes of Category 1 strength or above are confirmed by the NHC between May 15, 2026 and December 1, 2026. - [2026-10-01] As of the 11 AM PDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, the basin had three active or recent systems at once — Hurricane Rachel (then a Category 2 approaching major-hurricane strength), Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, and Tropical Storm Nolo in the Central Pacific — showing the season has not wound down with peak season over (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=7). - [2026-10-01] A follow-on disturbance south of southern Mexico was given a 70% chance of tropical cyclogenesis by the NHC as of Thursday morning, with "Simon" cued as the next name on the EPAC list — a near-term, high-probability path to hurricane #8 if it follows the season's pattern of rapid intensification (per Yale Climate Connections' Oct 1 tropical roundup, sourced from NHC advisories). - [2026-10-01] The same day's NHC forecast track had Rachel still intensifying, slated to reach 120 mph sustained winds on Oct 2 before gradually weakening — confirming the basin's warm, low-shear environment remains conducive to strengthening systems into October (NHC Forecast Advisory #18, cited via Yale Climate Connections Oct 1 report). - [2026-10-01] A Forbes analysis (Marshall Shepherd) attributes the stark Atlantic/Pacific contrast directly to a strengthening El Niño, which "is identified as the primary culprit for suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and boosted activity in the Pacific basin this season" — the same climate driver that has produced the current EPAC hyperactivity is forecast to persist into fall (https://forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2026/10/01/its-october-and-not-a-single-atlantic-hurricane-has-formed). - [2026-09-28] Local10/WPLG's season recap states the EPAC season featured "3 simultaneous hurricanes twice in a 3-week period – the first time since the blockbuster 2015 hurricane season," directly comparing 2026's pace to 2015, the all-time EPAC record year with 16 hurricanes (https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane/2026/09/28/eastern-pacific-soars-to-new-seasonal-high-while-atlantic-activity-stagnates-at-record-lows/). - [2026-05-22] NOAA's preseason outlook explicitly framed the chance of extreme activity, noting the numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes could go "far—and perhaps even wildly— above the usual seasonal averages of 8 and 4," driven by a possibly record-breaking "Super" El Niño (https://headlines.ametsoc.org/2026/05/22/eastern-pacific-hurricane-season-begins/). - [2026-05-22] That same outlook's 70%-confidence range topped out at 14 hurricanes for the EPAC alone, meaning NOAA itself assigned real (within-70%-CI) probability mass to a counts-of-13-or-14 outcome before the season even began — a range the market's ">12" threshold falls inside, not outside (https://headlines.ametsoc.org/2026/05/22/eastern-pacific-hurricane-season-begins/). - [2002-11-16] Historical analog 2002 (another El Niño/triple-Cat-5 year, matching 2026's three Category 5 hurricanes per Wikipedia) saw its strongest hurricane (Kenna) form October 22 and the season's last system dissipate November 16 — showing El Niño EPAC seasons can produce significant hurricane-strength activity well into the Oct–Nov window the market still has open (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2018-11-05] Historical analog 2018 (also tied with 2026 for most Category 5 hurricanes in a season) didn't see its last system dissipate until November 5, and finished with 13 hurricanes basin-wide — demonstrating that in a season already tracking this hot, crossing from 7–8 hurricanes in early October to 13+ by late November has direct precedent (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2026-09-30] NASA's Earth Observatory noted the combined East+Central Pacific hurricane count (9 by Sept 28) was already running nearly two full hurricanes above the 1991–2020 same-date average of 7.4 — a pace, if sustained proportionally through the rest of the season, that would land the EPAC-only total comfortably above 12 (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/powerful-storms-continue-to-prowl-the-pacific). BOTTOM LINE: The YES path runs through the pipeline already in motion on October 1 — Rachel upgrading to major-hurricane status, TD Nineteen-E, and a 70%-probability disturbance ("Simon") — plus a basin-wide El Niño pattern that forecasters say is actively suppressing the Atlantic while fueling the Pacific; historical El Niño analogs (2002, 2018, and especially 2015) show EPAC seasons at this pace have continued producing hurricanes well into October and November, and NOAA's own preseason 70%-confidence hurricane range (9–14) already encompassed outcomes above the 12 threshold. NOT FOUND: No NHC or CPC outlook update specifically issued after October 1, 2026 projecting the number of remaining-season hurricanes; no explicit statement from NHC quantifying the probability that the season finishes above 12 EPAC hurricanes.

YES means: the Eastern Pacific basin (NHC-defined, excluding Central Pacific) records 13 or more hurricanes of Category 1 strength or above between May 15 and December 1, 2026, as confirmed by NHC/NWS data. - [2026-10-01] NOAA's official climatology confirms Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Even with 2026 running above normal, the climatological base case sits far under the 12-threshold (https://www.noaa.gov/tropical-cyclone-climatology). - [2022-05-14] CPC's official season-type table (last modified 2022, still the standing reference) shows that even "above-normal" seasons historically average only 11.6 hurricanes with a range of 9-16, and El Niño years specifically average just 8.5 hurricanes with a range of 6-13 — meaning the modal El Niño/above-normal outcome lands at or below the >12 threshold, not comfortably above it (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Background.html). - [2022-05-14] The same CPC table shows that even the near-normal-season bucket tops out at 10 hurricanes and only the most extreme "above-normal" seasons (upper end of the 9-16 range) clear 12, underscoring that 13+ is a right-tail outcome requiring the season to land in roughly the top third of above-normal years (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Background.html). - [2026-10-01] CPC's basin background notes The official eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from 15 May through 30 November. The peak activity typically occurs during July through September. — meaning the climatological engine for new hurricanes is already past its highest-probability window with ~2 months (Oct-Nov) remaining (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Background.html). - [date~133 days old, still valid climatology] Independent climatology corroborates the seasonal taper: By July, August and September, tropical cyclones usually develop throughout the eastern Pacific basin. Formation is then typically limited to near Central America in October and November. This narrows the geographic/thermodynamic window for new hurricane formation in the remaining 2 months (https://www.weatherbug.com/news/Atlantic-and-Eastern-Pacific-Hurricane-Climatology). - [2011-11-21, illustrative historical analog] Even when November EPAC hurricanes do occur, they are historically scarce: coverage of a rare November 2011 Pacific hurricane (Kenneth) noted it is rare for storms to form this late in the year, as tropical ocean waters are cooler...and therefore less likely to fuel the storms. The average number of tropical storms seen in November...amounted to half a storm; the average number of hurricanes is only 0.3 (figure cited for the wider basin context, illustrating steep late-season drop-off) (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna45390893). - [2026-10-01] The NHC's own real-time outlook, as of the morning of October 1, shows only one new area of interest — a disturbance south of southern Mexico with just a 70% formation chance over 7 days and currently near-0% over 48 hours — i.e., at most one additional named system is imminent, not several simultaneous hurricanes (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php). - [2026-10-01] Separately, Yale Climate Connections' Oct 1 tropics update confirms the NHC's existing Hurricane Rachel is forecast to reach 120 mph maximum sustained winds on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, then gradually come down in strength throughout the weekend , and that the only other active system (TD Nineteen-E) is a new system... over the open waters of the eastern Pacific and well away from land. It is forecast to dissipate by Thursday evening — meaning the immediate pipeline does not clearly add a confirmed 8th hurricane beyond Rachel in the next 24-48 hours (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/tropical-moisture-stalled-front-fueling-flood-threat-across-the-central-plains). - [2026-10-01] The same NHC alert page shows only three named/numbered systems active basin-wide (Rachel, TD Nineteen-E, and TS Nolo in the Central Pacific) and no second Eastern Pacific invest beyond the low-confidence disturbance near southern Mexico, arguing against a rapid, sustained hurricane-production rate continuing into October (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac=). - [2026-09-27] Even Weather West's own characterization of the season as "remarkable" and "historic" is grounded in named-storm/ACE records and Hawaii impacts, not specifically in a pace of hurricane formation that would be needed to add 6 more Cat-1+ systems in 60 days; the piece emphasizes total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)...across the entire basin is now around 230% of average , a metric driven heavily by a few very intense, long-lived storms (Polo, Rachel) rather than by hurricane count alone (https://weatherwest.com/archives/44085). - [1983 analog] Historical analog for a strong El Niño year: the 1983 season (a textbook strong El Niño year) produced only 12 hurricanes for the entire season, confirming that even historic El Niño years have landed at or just under the market's >12 threshold rather than comfortably clearing it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Pacific_hurricane_season). - [2016 analog] The 2016 season, also an El Niño-influenced "above normal" year, finished EPAC-only activity at 11 hurricanes, again short of 12, reinforcing that only the most extreme seasons (2015's 16) have ever cleared the 12-hurricane mark by a wide margin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Pacific_hurricane_season). BOTTOM LINE: Climatology and CPC's own El Niño/above-normal-season statistics show the modal outcome even in a hyperactive, El Niño-driven year is roughly 8.5–11.6 hurricanes — at or below the 12-threshold — and the season's own peak window (July–September) is now behind it, with the NHC's live outlook showing only marginal, uncertain near-term formation chances; absent a historically unprecedented Oct–Nov surge, the base rate and current pipeline favor NO. NOT FOUND: A definitive EPAC-only (excluding Central Pacific) hurricane count broken out separately for October and November in 2026 to date beyond the Oct 1 snapshot; any official NHC/CPC post-October updated seasonal outlook; a complete per-month EPAC-only historical hurricane-formation-rate table for October/November specifically (only basin-wide/Atlantic November rarity statistics were found).