Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

- [2026-09-30] Silver Bulletin's own page states Trump "has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low of net -23" with "his net approval is sitting at -22.7" as of that update. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-09-28] Silver Bulletin's average approval stood at 37.4% approve / 60.1% disapprove (net -22.4), reported as lower than any point in Trump's first term. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/trump-approval-hits-37-worst-pre-midterm-mark-since-1990-polling-began/ - [2026-09-24] Wikipedia's polling-aggregator table lists Silver Bulletin at 37.4% approve, 60.4% disapprove (net −23.0) for that date. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-09-23] Newsweek/Yahoo reported Trump's overall approval in Silver Bulletin's September 23 average stood at 37.6 percent, with net approval of minus 22.4, called his lowest point in either term. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-all-time-low-nate-silver-12482345 - [2026-09-14→09-24] A Conversation analysis noted Trump's Silver Bulletin net approval moved from -19.7 on September 14 to -23.0 by September 24, showing an accelerating decline. https://theconversation.com/trumps-us-ratings-drop-to-new-record-low-as-democrats-become-clear-favourites-in-both-chambers-of-congress-292769 - [2026-09-06] Wikipedia's aggregator snapshot shows Silver Bulletin at 38.8% approve / 57.5% disapprove (net −18.7) earlier in September, confirming the subsequent ~1.5-point approval slide over three weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-09-30] Yahoo News's poll roundup listed Silver Bulletin's most recent reading (Sept. 30) at 38% favorable / 60% unfavorable. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/donald-trump-approval-ratings-where-132426878.html - [2026-09-29] Quinnipiac University poll showed Trump's net approval at its second-term low of -27 points (34% approve/61% disapprove), part of a cluster of individual-poll lows feeding the aggregate. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-net-approval-rating-hits-lowest-point-of-second-termpoll-12503643 - [2026-09-21] Reuters/Ipsos poll put approval at a record 32% for either Trump term, among several individual polls now below 35%, though Silver Bulletin's blended average remains higher than single outlier polls. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/09/30/trumps-approval-rating-on-the-economy-hits-all-time-low/ - [2026-09-16/20] American Research Group found Trump's approval at a career-low 29%, the first sub-30% reading of either term for that pollster, illustrating the wide poll-to-poll spread feeding into the Silver Bulletin average. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/trump-approval-hits-37-worst-pre-midterm-mark-since-1990-polling-began/ - [2026-09-30] Silver Bulletin's landing page continues daily updates and flags related dashboards (midterm model, generic ballot, Iran War support) as context for the sustained approval erosion heading into the Nov. 3 midterms. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-09-30, Silver Bulletin's approval aggregate sits around 37.4–38% (net roughly -22.7 to -23), an all-time low for Trump's presidencies but still about 2-3 points above the 35% threshold; the trend has been steadily and recently accelerating downward (from net -18.7 on Sep 6 to -23 by Sep 30), so continued erosion at the current pace could plausibly push the line to 35% within 2026, though it has not yet reached that level. NOT FOUND: A specific Silver Bulletin daily data point showing the approval average at or below 35% on any date in 2026; could not confirm the exact daily low-water mark of the green trend line (only weekly/periodic snapshots were available via search and the page's charts require JavaScript/subscription to view full historical data).

- [2026-09-30] Silver Bulletin's live update states Donald Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low of net -23, with net approval sitting at -22.7 , a daily-updated figure well below 35% in raw approval terms is not directly given here but is corroborated by other sources below. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-09-28] Hoodline reports Silver Bulletin calculated Trump's net approval average at minus 22.4 points, with 37.4% approval against 60.1% disapproval, a figure Nate Silver said was lower than at any point during Trump's first term . https://hoodline.com/2026/10/trump-approval-hits-37-worst-pre-midterm-mark-since-1990-polling-began/ - [2026-09-26] Newsweek reported Trump's overall approval stood at 37.6 percent in Silver Bulletin's September 23 average , with net approval figures lower than at any point in his first term, including after the January 6 Capitol attack . - [2026-09-30] Forbes' daily-updated tracker states Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin , amid record lows this cycle. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/09/30/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-sherrod-brown-up-3-points-in-ohio-senate-race-updated-daily/ - [2026-09-06] Wikipedia's aggregator table lists Silver Bulletin at 38.8% approve/57.5% disapprove on that date, part of a steady decline from 47% at inauguration (Jan 2025) to the 37-39% range by mid-2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-09-24] Wikipedia aggregator table shows Silver Bulletin at 37.4% approve/60.4% disapprove, with other aggregators (FiftyPlusOne 34.7%, Economist/YouGov 35.0%) already at or near 35%, showing cross-aggregator variance around the 35-38% band. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2025-11-30] Gallup — a different but historically correlated tracker — recorded Trump's job approval rating dropping to 36%, the lowest of his second term , showing Silver Bulletin's current ~37% is consistent with, not an outlier versus, other trackers. https://opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251130 - [2026-07] Gallup noted Trump's second-term low of 37% was just slightly higher than his all-time worst rating of 34% at the end of his first term (post-Jan 6, 2021), establishing that sub-35% readings have occurred before only once, briefly, in Trump's political history. https://news.gallup.com/poll/692879/independents-drive-trump-approval-second-term-low.aspx - [2026-09-29] Reuters/Ipsos (a single-poll, not the aggregator) showed Trump's approval at 32 percent, the lowest of his second term and, according to Reuters, a record low for his entire political life , indicating some individual polls already sit below 35%, even though the Silver Bulletin aggregate (weighted average) remains a few points higher at ~37-38%. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6102632-trump-approval-rating-historic-low/ - [2026-09-23] CNN/SSRS single poll put approval at 33% approval rating, a new low point for either of his terms , again below the aggregate but showing downward pressure on the average. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/09/30/trumps-approval-rating-on-the-economy-hits-all-time-low/ - [2026-09] Trend context: aggregate decline has been roughly linear/accelerating over 2026, moving from ~41% (early 2026) to ~37-38% by late September, a drop of several points over roughly 8-9 months, implying a further ~2-3 point decline over a comparable period could bring the aggregate near or below 35% before year-end if the trend continues at a similar pace. BOTTOM LINE: Historically, Trump's approval (via Gallup, and Silver Bulletin's own commentary) has only touched the 34-35% floor once before — briefly after January 6, 2021 — and the current Silver Bulletin aggregate (~37-38% as of late September 2026) sits a few points above that all-time low, even as individual polls (Reuters/Ipsos, CNN/SSRS) have already dipped to 32-33%; given the aggregate's steep, accelerating downward trajectory through the 2026 midterm season and documented historical precedent for brief dips to the 34-35% range during crisis points, a move to 35% or below in the Silver Bulletin average within the remaining 2026 window is plausible but not yet the base case, requiring either a sustained acceleration of the current decline or a discrete shock event (e.g., economic downturn, scandal, war escalation) similar to what drove the one historical sub-35% episode. NOT FOUND: An exact day-by-day Silver Bulletin numerical series for all of 2026 (paywalled beyond the free snippet) preventing precise measurement of the single lowest daily reading reached so far in 2026; no explicit statement from Silver Bulletin on probability of reaching 35% before year-end.

YES means: Silver Bulletin's green trend-line approval average touches 35% or lower (equivalently, approval ≤35%) on at least one finalized date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. - [2026-09-30] Nate Silver's own page states Trump's net approval average has repeatedly set all-time lows, moving from net -11.0 at this point in his first term to net -22.7 now, confirming an unprecedented and still-accelerating decline rather than a plateau. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-10-01] A new AP-NORC national poll found Trump's approval rating at 31%, the lowest the president has seen in either of his two terms , a fresh career-low individual poll landing just one day into the resolution window's final quarter. - [2026-10-01] The same AP-NORC survey shows economic approval collapsing further: only 17% of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the cost of living, and just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low — a leading indicator that typically drags the overall topline down with a lag. - [2026-09-28/30] Reuters/Ipsos, a high-frequency pollster that feeds directly into the Silver Bulletin average, shows Trump's overall approval falling 3 points from the previous week to an all-time low of 32 percent , with Republican approval dropping from 82 percent to 73 percent in a week — a sign the erosion is now reaching his own base, which is historically the hardest-to-move segment of the aggregate. - [2026-09-23] FiftyPlusOne's own aggregator already sits at 34.7% approve (net -27.0) and The Economist/YouGov at 35.0% (net -26.0) for the same date, per Wikipedia's cross-aggregator table — demonstrating that other reputable aggregators built from similar poll universes are already at or below the 35% threshold, only ~2.5-2.7 points below Silver Bulletin's 37.4% for that date. - [2026-10-01] A separate Yahoo aggregation lists Silver Bulletin's Oct. 1 topline at 37.7% approve/59.9% disapprove, confirming the average had not yet dropped materially from late September despite the barrage of sub-33% individual polls — but also showing net approval (-22.2) still near the all-time-low territory, i.e., the gap to 35% is narrowing, not widening. - [2026-10-01] Axios reports the new AP-NORC figures "fit with other national surveys over the last month that similarly showed Trump's approval on the economy somewhere from the high 20s to the high 30s," indicating a broad, multi-pollster convergence toward deteriorating numbers rather than a single-poll outlier. - [2026-09-01] A prior near-shutdown was only narrowly averted when Congress passed a short-term funding bill extending only through December 11, 2026, meaning a fresh funding cliff/shutdown fight is scheduled squarely inside the resolution window; the September funding fight already produced the approval slide from net -18.7 (Sep 6) to -23 (Sep 30) per the colleagues' reports, and a repeat or actual shutdown around December 11 could reproduce or exceed that drop. - [2026-10-01] Political Wire separately confirms the AP/NORC 31% approve / 69% disapprove reading, an unusually wide margin that, if replicated by other large pollsters in October, would pull the weighted Silver Bulletin average down several points from its current ~37-38% reading. - [Historical] The hoodline analysis notes Trump's 37% pre-midterm approval is already "the lowest mark for any president heading into a midterm election" in WSJ polling since 1990, undercutting the idea that approval naturally stabilizes before midterms — instead, the Nov. 3 midterms themselves (and any post-election verdict on his party) are a plausible further catalyst for continued decline through November-December. BOTTOM LINE: The path to YES runs through the current, still-steepening decline (Silver Bulletin net approval already at an all-time low of -22.7 to -23) converging with a cluster of corroborating individual polls already at or below 35% (FiftyPlusOne 34.7%, Economist/YouGov 35.0%, AP-NORC 31%, Reuters/Ipsos 32%), plus a scheduled December 11 funding deadline and the Nov. 3 midterms as discrete catalysts that could replicate or exceed the magnitude of the Sept. decline (~4.3 points in net approval in 3 weeks) and pull the Silver Bulletin topline the remaining ~2.4 points to 35% before year-end. NOT FOUND: A finalized Silver Bulletin daily reading at or below 35% approve for any date in 2026 to date; confirmation of whether/how the December 11 funding deadline will be resolved; any Silver Bulletin commentary explicitly forecasting a sub-35% reading before December 31, 2026.

YES means: Silver Bulletin's green-line approval trend average falls to 35% or below (approve figure) on at least one finalized date between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-09-30] Silver Bulletin's own landing page, fetched directly, shows the latest net figure is -22.7 (all-time low) but does not publish the exact approve/disapprove topline number for free; the only confirmed recent approve numbers from secondary sources sit at 37-38%, roughly 2-3 points above the 35% strike, with no confirmed sub-35% Silver Bulletin reading anywhere in 2026. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-09-11] A Reuters/Ipsos poll — one of the more bearish trackers feeding the Silver Bulletin average — rose to 35 percent approval, up from 33 percent in a late August poll revealing his lowest rating across both of his terms , demonstrating that even Trump's worst individual poll series has bounced rather than monotonically collapsing. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6090234-trump-approval-rating-rises/ - [2026-09-14] Newsweek reported that after the GOP's midterm convention, a Reuters/Ipsos survey fielded September 11 to 14 found the president recovered from an all-time low of 33 percent in late August, with now 35 percent approving — direct evidence of a short-term rebound mechanism (campaign events, convention bumps) that could recur and slow or reverse further Silver Bulletin erosion before the 35% line is breached. https://www.newsweek.com/how-donald-trumps-approval-rating-has-changed-since-rnc-convention-12445986 - [2026-09-09] The single-pollster Marquette Law School series, though hitting a new low of 37%, was down from 40 percent in July and one point below the previous series low recorded in May and June — a roughly 1-point move over three months in that tracker, not the kind of multi-point-per-month collapse needed to carry the blended Silver Bulletin average from ~37-38% down to 35% in the remaining three months of 2026. - [2026-09-14] CNN's own poll-of-polls — a comparable multi-poll average, not the Silver Bulletin aggregate itself — put Trump at 36 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval across national polls conducted from August 20 through September 14 , i.e. even a competing aggregator sat only one point below the Silver Bulletin figure and still above the 35% strike at that time. - [2026-09-28] RealClearPolitics, the resolution source's own designated fallback if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable, showed approval at 38.8% favorable, 56.9% unfavorable (net −18.1) on September 23 — meaningfully higher (less bearish) than Silver Bulletin's own simultaneous reading, illustrating that aggregator choice matters and the fallback source is currently further from the 35% threshold. - [2026-09-28] The Decision Desk HQ aggregator, a similar model-based average, also put Trump at 37.2% favorable, 59.4% unfavorable (net −22.2) on September 23 — within the same comfortable 2-point buffer above 35% as Silver Bulletin, reinforcing that model-based composite averages (which smooth outlier polls like Reuters/Ipsos 32% or ARG 29%) are structurally slower to reach extreme lows than any single poll. - [2026] Historical precedent (noted by colleagues) shows Trump's approval has only ever dipped to the 34-35% zone once, briefly, after January 6, 2021; absent an equivalent acute shock event in the remaining three months of 2026, the smoothed, multi-poll Silver Bulletin average has no demonstrated tendency to sustain a move that far below its current level within a single quarter. - [2026-09-29] Even as some individual firms hit record lows (Quinnipiac 34% approve/-27 net, YouGov -26 net, AP-NORC 31%), colleagues note Trump's overall approval rating did reach -27 points during his first term in January 2021... but it has not returned to that low point during his second term in the aggregate sense — underscoring that outlier individual polls dragging down raw averages have not yet pulled the smoothed Silver Bulletin trend line itself below 35%. - [Mechanical] The question requires a finalized Silver Bulletin datapoint at or below 35% on some date in 2026; because Silver Bulletin's average is a weighted, smoothed trend line (not a raw poll), it reacts more slowly and with more inertia to shock events than any individual poll, meaning even continued bad news may only push the line to 36-37% rather than through 35% before December 31. BOTTOM LINE: Silver Bulletin's smoothed average has fallen to an all-time low of roughly 37-38% approval by late September 2026 but has shown a decelerating, not accelerating, trajectory in comparable aggregators (CNN poll-of-polls, RealClearPolitics, Decision Desk HQ all cluster 36-39%), and individual bellwether polls like Reuters/Ipsos have already demonstrated a rebound pattern (33%→35%) rather than a one-way collapse, so the 2-3 point gap to the 35% strike may persist through year-end absent a fresh acute shock. NOT FOUND: An exact Silver Bulletin numerical low for any single day in 2026 below 37.4%; any explicit Nate Silver commentary addressing resistance/floor levels or forecasting whether the average will cross 35% before December 31, 2026.