Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

- [2026-02-23] Rob Jetten was sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, succeeding Dick Schoof; multiple sources confirm the cabinet was sworn in on 23 February 2026, led by Rob Jetten, who serves as Prime Minister of the Netherlands since the formation of the cabinet , with Wikipedia's infobox explicitly noting Jetten preceded by: Dick Schoof . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jetten_cabinet - [2026-02-23] Dick Schoof's own Wikipedia page confirms his full departure from office (not merely caretaker): "Status in legislature: Right-wing majority coalition (2024–2025) Right-wing demissionary minority coalition (2025–2026)" and the cabinet's "Date dissolved: 23 February 2026, 1 year, 236 days in office (demissionary from 3 June 2025)" . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoof_cabinet - [2026-02-23] Press coverage independently corroborates the transition: a new Dutch minority government was sworn in with Jetten as PM, replacing Schoof, per Euronews/AP/AFP reporting. "Dutch King Willem-Alexander swore in a new minority Dutch coalition government on Monday, led by Rob Jetten, the Netherlands' youngest-ever prime minister, wishing them good luck 'in uncertain times'." https://euronews.com/2026/02/23/new-dutch-minority-government-sworn-in-under-the-nations-youngest-prime-minister-rob-jette - [undated, live snapshot] A direct fetch of the exact Polymarket event matching this question's title and listed-leader roster ("Will no listed leader be out before 2027?", part of the "Next leader out of power before 2027?" series) shows the market status as "Past / Ended," with "Schoof - Netherlands PM" resolved at 100% and every other listed leader (Starmer, Khamenei, Zelenskyy, Xi, Putin, Trump, Netanyahu, Macron, Kim, Lula, Merz, Erdoğan, Orbán, Lecornu, Takaichi, Díaz-Canel, etc.) resolved "No." The "None before 2027" outcome line is explicitly shown as "No." - [undated, cached snapshot] A separate cached copy of the same event (polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684) corroborates this: "This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution... If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'None before 2027'... Outcome proposed: No" , with Schoof shown at 100% and the final outcome listed as "No" (for "None before 2027"). - [2026, exact date not stated] A third-party market tracker (cryptoslate) reports a closely related sibling contract in the same series, "(No Orban)" variant, separately resolved with "Starmer - UK PM as the winning outcome... with a final probability of 100%" , confirming that within this market family, listed leaders have in fact been resolved as "out" during 2026, not "None." - [2025-06-03 to 2025-10-29] Background: Schoof's path to departure began when his coalition collapsed on 2025-06-03 (Wilders' PVV exit), after which "Wilders' announcement that his PVV party will be leaving the coalition means that any party members holding ministerial positions in the cabinet will leave, while remaining ministers from three other parties will continue as part of a caretaker cabinet" , and formally submitted the cabinet's resignation on 2025-10-29 ahead of the October 29, 2025 election, continuing in caretaker status until Jetten's inauguration on 2026-02-23. https://nltimes.nl/2025/10/29/dutch-pm-dick-schoof-formally-submits-cabinets-resignation - [Market-design note, no date] The question's own rules explicitly state "if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office" — but Schoof did not merely continue as caretaker; he was fully succeeded by Jetten, which is the event the market (per the live and cached snapshots) has treated as a qualifying, permanent departure. BOTTOM LINE: The specific Polymarket contract matching this question's title and leader roster currently shows as resolved/ended, with "Schoof - Netherlands PM" as the 100% winning outcome and the "None before 2027" ("Will no listed leader be out before 2027?") line explicitly marked "No" — i.e., the dimension-level evidence (Schoof's full succession by Jetten on 2026-02-23, corroborated by independent press and Wikipedia) and the market's own live/cached pages both point to this question having already resolved NO rather than remaining open through year-end. NOT FOUND: An explicit, dated Polymarket UMA/resolution announcement or dispute log specifically naming "Schoof" as satisfying the "permanent removal from office" clause (only the resolved price/outcome display and the underlying factual succession were found); could not find a live, un-cached, post-October-2026 timestamped confirmation that reconciles the "Ended: Dec 30" page status with the stated October 1, 2026 "today" in this task (suggesting either the market closed early once Schoof's exit was confirmed, or the fetched page reflects a later/cached state).

- [2026-02-23] The Dutch Jetten cabinet was sworn in, succeeding the Schoof cabinet; Rob Jetten became PM, with Dick Schoof's tenure as PM formally ending that day (non-caretaker, full transfer of power) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jetten_cabinet - [2026-10-01 snapshot] On Polymarket's "Next leader out of power before 2027?" event (same list of ~27 leaders as this question, including Schoof, Macron, Erdoğan, Kim, Xi, Khamenei, Netanyahu, Trump, Zelenskyy, Putin, etc.), the sub-outcome "This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office... If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'None before 2027'." The page now shows the market as resolved, with "Schoof - Netherlands PM" priced at 100% and "None before 2027" priced at No — i.e., consensus reporting treated Schoof's February 2026 exit as a qualifying permanent removal, resolving the parent event YES (a leader did leave) — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 - [2025 reference class] The predecessor market "First leader out of power in 2025?" (opened Mar 11, 2025, ~15-20 similarly-composed world leaders) resolved with "Ishiba - Japan PM 100.0%" , i.e., a listed leader (Japan's PM) did leave office before the market's Dec 31, 2025 deadline, so "None" did NOT occur — https://polymarket.com/event/first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025/will-shigeru-ishiba-be-the-first-leader-out-in-2025 - [2025 second iteration] A follow-on market, "Next leader out of power in 2025?" (asking who would be the *second* listed leader to fall, opened Oct 21, 2025, ~2-month window), by contrast resolved "None in 2025 100.0%" — showing that once one departure already occurred, a second departure within the same short remaining window was far less likely — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 - [reference class pattern] Across the two fielded editions of this "leader out of power" market family (2025 edition and the 2026 "before 2027" edition), both resolved YES (someone left office) rather than "None" — a 0-for-2 track record for the "None" outcome in comparable ~9-15 month windows with similarly large leader panels — https://polymarket.com/event/first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025/will-shigeru-ishiba-be-the-first-leader-out-in-2025, https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 - [outside view on panel size] With ~25-27 heads of state/government on the list, base rates of normal political turnover (elections, resignations, coalition collapses, deaths, successful ousters) across such a large, diverse global panel over a 6-18 month window make at least one qualifying "permanent removal" statistically likely even under strict resolution rules (excluding caretaker/interim status and mere resignation announcements) — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 - [rules nuance] The rules explicitly exclude caretaker/interim continuations (citing Gabriel Attal in France as the template) and temporary suspensions (citing Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment), which narrows what counts, but full successor installations such as Jetten replacing Schoof clearly qualify as the market's own resolution shows — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 BOTTOM LINE: The reference class (Polymarket's own prior "leader out of power" markets) has resolved YES (someone departs) in both of its past instances — including, per the platform's own already-settled parent event, the current "before 2027" edition itself via Dick Schoof's February 2026 replacement by Rob Jetten — giving essentially no historical precedent for "None" and a strong base-rate/outside-view lean toward NO on "no listed leader out before 2027." NOT FOUND: An independent (non-Polymarket) forecast, poll, or expert base-rate study specifically quantifying turnover probability across this exact panel of ~27 heads of state/government; could not verify whether any dispute/appeal was raised over Polymarket's resolution of the Schoof outcome.

YES means: no leader on this market's roster permanently and non-caretaker leaves their listed office between 2026-07-01 and 2026-12-31, so the market settles "None before 2027." - [2026-02-23] Dick Schoof's departure, used by Polymarket's parent event to mark "Schoof - Netherlands PM" as the 100% winning outcome, is arguably excludable under the rules' own carve-out that "a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election ... will not alone qualify" for resolution, since Schoof's exit followed the 29 Oct 2025 election and the subsequent formation of a new coalition rather than a removal independent of that election — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 - [2026-06-22/2026-07-20] A second roster member, UK PM Keir Starmer, also left office: he announced resignation on 22 June 2026 and was formally succeeded by Andy Burnham as Prime Minister on 20 July 2026, per Wikipedia's infobox for the Starmer ministry showing "Date dissolved: 20 July 2026... Successor: Burnham ministry" — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starmer_ministry - [2026-06-22] Contemporary reporting frames Starmer's exit as a genuine, non-caretaker handover driven by an internal Labour leadership crisis rather than an election defeat, which on its face looks like exactly the kind of "permanent removal" the rules intend to count, undercutting any technical argument that neither Schoof's nor Starmer's exit qualifies — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/united-kingdom/keir-starmer-resigns-prime-minister-andy-burnham-labour-party-britain-rcna257534 - [snapshot, fetched 2026-10-01] The live Polymarket page for this exact sub-market shows status "Past," end date "Dec 30," "Schoof - Netherlands PM 100%," and "None before 2027" priced as the losing "No" outcome, meaning the platform's own resolution mechanism has already treated a listed leader's exit as satisfying the market's criteria — https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-434 - [2026, undated] For a YES case to still prevail, both the Schoof and the Starmer resolutions would need to be successfully disputed via UMA's optimistic-oracle challenge process as not meeting the "permanent removal" bar (e.g., on the ground that each was effectively an "election-outcome" or internally-triggered political resignation the rules intend to exclude), and no further listed leader could exit for the remainder of 2026 — a two-step reversal with no evidence of an active dispute found on the page's "Rules"/comments sections. - [reference] Polymarket's dispute history shows such reversals do happen (e.g., the Barron Trump/TrumpCoin and Zelenskyy-suit markets were contested and in one case overturned), establishing that a technical UMA dispute is the only realistic mechanical path left for this contract to flip back toward "None," however no comparable dispute has been reported for the Schoof or Starmer outcomes — https://benzinga.com/z/39521772 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest (and essentially only) YES path requires retroactively invalidating both Schoof's (Feb 2026) and Starmer's (July 2026) already-recorded, non-caretaker departures as not meeting the "permanent removal" bar via a successful UMA dispute, with zero further departures through year-end; no evidence of such a dispute exists, and the contract's own live page already shows it resolved against "None." NOT FOUND: No record of any formal UMA challenge or dispute specifically contesting the Schoof or Starmer resolutions on the "election-outcome" or "internal-resignation" carve-out grounds; no dated announcement of this specific sub-market's resolution timestamp beyond the "Ended: Dec 30" page label.

YES means: no leader on the current listed roster permanently leaves office between 2026-07-01 and 2026-12-31 (i.e., "None before 2027" is the winning outcome). The NO case argued here is that at least one listed leader does leave permanently before the deadline. - [2026-09-24] The live, still-open Polymarket edition matching this question's actual dates (opened Jun 30, 2026, closes Jan 1, 2027) is titled "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" — a newer roster that already excludes Starmer and Petro because they had already departed their prior editions; its snapshot shows "None before 2027" at only 37%, with Netanyahu at 32% and Lecornu at 12.2%, implying traders collectively price a leader departure (NO) above 60% likely. https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406 - [2026-07-20] Labour saw record electoral losses during the 2025 and 2026 local elections, which culminated in a leadership crisis and Keir Starmer's resignation; Starmer tendered his resignation on 20 July 2026, and was succeeded by Andy Burnham. This is a second confirmed, non-caretaker, fully-consummated head-of-government exit in this market family during 2026 (after Schoof), reinforcing that full permanent transfers keep occurring across the panel. - [2026, undated on cited page] The Starmer ministry's date dissolved is listed as 20 July 2026 , and its listed successor is the Burnham ministry — a clean succession, not a caretaker continuation, so it would qualify under the market's "permanent removal" standard. - [2026-05-20] In Israel, Ashkenazi Haredi leaders declared an end to their longstanding alliance with Netanyahu, and the coalition chairman submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset and head to early elections , with reporting noting Netanyahu attempting to control the coalition's collapse and the election timeline, prioritizing maximizing the government's lifespan with elections in October . - [date not stated, ~134 days old] A Knesset bill to dissolve parliament would need committee review and three more readings before triggering an election within 90 days if finally approved , and polls were set to be held before the end of the legislative session on October 27 — meaning even if Netanyahu's government formally falls, a successor PM may not be installed and sworn in until after the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, which would NOT satisfy the market's "permanent removal" requirement in time. - [current, per 2026 Israeli election Wikipedia page] Israel's legislative election is scheduled for 27 October 2026, to elect the 26th Knesset and determine the governing coalition that succeeds the 37th government led by Netanyahu — but a scheduled election alone would not qualify per this market's rule excluding "a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election," and government formation/swearing-in after an Oct 27 vote historically takes weeks to months in Israel, pushing any actual replacement close to or past the Dec 31 cutoff. - [2025-10-06, background on France] Sébastien Lecornu resigned on 6 October 2025, becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in France since 1958, having been appointed 9 September as the third prime minister since the snap elections of 2024 ; he was re-appointed on 10 October 2025 and formed the second Lecornu government, the 48th and incumbent government of France . This demonstrates the French PM office's extreme turnover rate (multiple PMs within a two-year span), making Lecornu's current ~12% "out before 2027" pricing a non-trivial, historically grounded risk given France's pattern of rapid PM churn. - [market mechanics] The market's own rules exclude "an announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election" from alone qualifying, and explicitly exclude caretaker/interim continuations — these technicalities raise the bar specifically for Netanyahu (election-driven exit) and any French PM change where Macron might install a caretaker, making it structurally harder for "NO" (a leader-out event) to be officially recognized even if political upheaval occurs. - [reference class] Two prior editions of this market family (the "684" edition and the original 2025 edition per colleague reports) both resolved to a named leader (Schoof, Ishiba) rather than "None," a 0-for-2 track record for "None" winning — but the newest edition's panel has already shed its two most "crisis-prone" names (Starmer, Petro), mechanically narrowing the field of near-term candidates for the remaining ~5.5-month window. BOTTOM LINE: Although the market's own pricing (~63% implied NO/"a leader exits") and the historical base rate from prior resolved editions both lean toward a leader departing, the question's strict "permanent removal" and anti-caretaker/anti-election-announcement clauses make the two most prominent live risks — Netanyahu (election-bound, likely resolved via an Oct 27 vote with government formation possibly slipping past Dec 31) and Lecornu (frequent resignations but equally frequent reappointments/caretaker continuations) — genuinely uncertain to cleanly qualify before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, giving the status-quo "None"/YES case real technical footing despite the unfavorable base rate. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of Netanyahu's coalition having actually collapsed or an election date being finalized as of the task's "today" (Oct 1, 2026); no post-September-2026 update on Lecornu's tenure status; no evidence of any other listed leader (Xi, Putin, Trump, Merz, Erdoğan, Macron, Kim, etc.) facing an imminent, qualifying permanent removal.