Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

- [2026-01-03] U.S. military forces captured Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas during "Operation Absolute Resolve/Southern Spear," ending his de facto rule; the raid "removed Maduro from power within three hours" and American troops captured him and his wife, immediately extraditing them to New York. - [2026-01-03] Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice (STJ) ruled Maduro's absence was "forced" and ordered VP Delcy Rodríguez to assume the presidency as "acting president," stating she "should assume and exercise, as 'acting president,' all the powers, duties, and faculties inherent to the office of president," classifying Maduro's absence as "forced." - [2026-01-05] Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's former vice president, was sworn in as interim/acting president while Maduro awaited arraignment in New York. - [2026-01-05] At arraignment, Maduro himself declared "I am still the president of my country," a claim he and Rodríguez have both maintained since. - [2026-09-02] Maduro's legal team filed a motion in the SDNY case arguing head-of-state immunity; "Maduro filed a motion to dismiss all charges in the indictment on the grounds that he is immune from prosecution because he is head of a foreign state and the charges are based on acts undertaken in his official capacity on behalf of Venezuela." - [2026-09-23/24] Rodríguez addressed the UN General Assembly as Venezuela's acting/interim president, telling the UN that "the Venezuelan people will determine the best time to get elections moving" but giving no election date. - [2026-09-23] Per Bloomberg, "Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez told the United Nations that her country is on the path to free elections," declaring "There will be elections in Venezuela," but set no timeline. - [2026-09-24] Rodríguez met Trump on UNGA sidelines; "Both Rodríguez and Maduro have asserted that the latter remains the legal officeholder," while Venezuela "has effectively been controlled by" U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio since the operation. - [2026-09-26] A federal judge set Maduro's U.S. drug-trafficking trial date for June 1, 2027 — well after the Dec 31, 2026 market close, per ABC News reporting that "Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores will stand trial on June 1, 2027, a federal judge in New York decided." - [2026-10-01 (current status)] Wikipedia's "President of Venezuela" infobox lists the incumbent as "Delcy Rodríguez, Acting since 5 January 2026" — confirming she still only holds the office in an acting/interim capacity, not as constitutionally recognized president. - [2026-10-01] No STJ ruling, National Assembly action, resignation, or formal removal has been found that would upgrade Rodríguez's status from "acting president" to constitutional/official president, nor has Maduro resigned or had his term formally ended by Venezuelan institutions. BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, Delcy Rodríguez continues to function as Venezuela's de facto head of state (acting/interim president since Jan 5, 2026, including UN representation), but Venezuelan state institutions, the STJ ruling, and Maduro himself all still frame him as the nominal constitutional president with Rodríguez only "acting" — meaning, per Kalshi's own clarification logic, the contract would currently resolve No unless a formal change (STJ ruling, resignation, term expiration, or National Assembly action) elevates her status before Dec 31, 2026; no such change had occurred as of the latest findings, and Maduro's US trial (set for June 2027) means he remains in detention but not formally stripped of office. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any new STJ or National Assembly ruling after January 2026 altering Rodríguez's "acting" designation; no confirmed election date or scheduled presidential vote before Dec 31, 2026; no official Venezuelan government directory/organizational chart snapshot from the most recent weeks explicitly confirming current listing (only secondary/Wikipedia-sourced confirmation found).

- [2026-01-03] US forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation; Maduro and his wife were swiftly flown out of the country to face narco-terrorism and related federal charges in New York. https://www.britannica.com/question/Why-was-Venezuelan-President-Nicolas-Maduro-captured-by-the-U-S-in-2026 - [2026-01-04] Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume the role of acting president "to guarantee administrative continuity and the comprehensive defense of the Nation." The ruling framed Maduro's absence as "forced," not a vacancy. https://www.jpost.com/international/article-882193 - [2026-04-06] Delcy Rodríguez remained acting president even after exceeding the court's 90-day limit; the court order held that Maduro is still officially Venezuela's president and his "forced" absence from a "kidnapping" makes it temporarily impossible for him to fulfill his duties. Under the constitution, temporary absences are filled by the VP for up to 90 days, extendable by the National Assembly for another 90. https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired - [2026-04-06] The U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, while the U.S. State Department recognized her as the "sole Head of State" of Venezuela — a US recognition stance, distinct from the Kalshi contract's Venezuelan-institution-based criterion. - [2026-09-23/24] At UNGA, Rodríguez, described as Venezuela's acting/interim president, told the UN the country would hold elections as part of a transition to "full democracy" but gave no specific date, saying her government had opened "political dialogue with opposition sectors" for a process with "equal conditions for all," leaving timing to be determined. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/24/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-promises-elections-at-un-gives-no-date - [2026-09-30 approx] Wikipedia's "President of Venezuela" infobox still lists "Incumbent Delcy Rodríguez Acting since 5 January 2026" while noting "Both Rodríguez and Maduro have asserted that the latter remains the legal officeholder," and Venezuela has effectively been controlled by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio , described informally as "viceroy." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela - Base-rate/outside-view reference class #1 — Venezuela's own 2019-2023 dual-presidency crisis: Juan Guaidó's disputed interim government as acting president of Venezuela lasted from 23 January 2019 to 5 January 2023 — roughly four years — despite early predictions of a rapid transition (Guaidó's own transition statute envisioned a maximum 12-month acting period). This shows that nominal "acting president" arrangements in Venezuela, once entrenched with institutional/military backing, can persist far longer than their original legal mandate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interim_government_of_Juan_Guaid%C3%B3 - Reference class #2 — Maduro's 2013 accession after Chávez's death: when President Hugo Chávez died in March 2013, Nicolás Maduro took over as acting president and new elections were called within 30 days , i.e., a genuine temporary-vacancy succession resolved quickly via election — a sharp contrast to the current situation where no vacancy has been declared and no election has been scheduled. - The current Venezuelan institutional structure (Supreme Tribunal, military, National Assembly, PSUV party apparatus) is fully aligned behind treating Maduro as nominal "constitutional president" while Rodríguez runs the government as "acting president" — a status quo that has already persisted roughly 9 months (Jan–Sep 2026) without formal resolution, is bolstered by continuing US-Rodríguez diplomatic and economic engagement (Chevron deal, UNGA appearance, Trump meeting), and shows no scheduled mechanism (election date, succession vote) to change the formal headship before year-end. - No outside forecasts, prediction-market aggregator pages, or polling specifically on "will Delcy Rodríguez become officially recognized head of state by Dec 31, 2026" were found; coverage uniformly continues to use "acting"/"interim" language for Rodríguez and treats Maduro as the nominal officeholder. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class of past Venezuelan "acting president" standoffs (Guaidó 2019–2023) shows such arrangements can persist for years without formal resolution, and the current Maduro/Rodríguez arrangement has already lasted ~9 months with Venezuelan institutions (TSJ, Defense Ministry, National Assembly, Presidency website) consistently maintaining Maduro as the nominal constitutional president and Rodríguez only as "acting" — with no election date or formal succession process set, base rates favor the status quo (No) persisting through Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No direct Kalshi/Polymarket-style forecast aggregation or probability estimates specific to this question were located in search results; no announced timeline for a Venezuelan presidential election or for any formal TSJ/National Assembly action to convert Rodríguez's "acting" status into a permanent/constitutional headship before year-end.

YES means: Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 AM ET — i.e., she is formally/constitutionally recognized (not merely "acting"), or Maduro is formally removed/resigns/term-expires and she is elevated, or an authoritative government source lists her as (non-acting) president by that date. - [2026-08-13] A Congressional Research Service report confirms "Following Maduro's removal, Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's vice president and oil minister of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), took power as acting president," and that the Trump Administration backed Rodríguez to serve in this capacity rather than Edmundo González or María Corina Machado — meaning the one rival power center (US) with leverage over Venezuela has already chosen Rodríguez as its preferred long-term counterpart, a precondition for any future elevation to full presidency. - [2026-04-06 reaffirmed 2026-08-13] The same CRS report notes the U.S. Treasury lifted 2018 corruption sanctions on Rodríguez and that "some in Congress have praised the Trump Administration for pressuring the acting government to cut ties with U.S. adversaries and follow U.S. guidance in opening its economy," consolidating her as Washington's chosen interlocutor rather than a transitional figure to be discarded. - [2026-08-13] CRS reports the acting president and her brother Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, "have used U.S. backing to consolidate power through a process that some analysts have termed 'normalization without transition,'" including purging some Maduro loyalists and extraditing Alex Saab — evidence of entrenchment rather than a time-limited caretaker role, which strengthens the case that institutional recognition could eventually formalize into non-acting headship. - [2026-04-16] Per the CRS report, the IMF resumed interactions with Venezuela after a majority of its voting members recognized the acting Rodríguez administration as the legitimate government of Venezuela , later joined by the World Bank and IDB — showing growing multilateral/authoritative recognition of her government as Venezuela's governing authority, which could feed into "official government directories/organizational charts" criteria. - [2026-09-23] Rodríguez addressed the UN General Assembly as Venezuela's head of government/state, with UN News captioning her as "Acting President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez of Venezuela" addressing the General Debate — an authoritative international body treating her as Venezuela's representative at the highest level, continuing a pattern that could tip toward "officially holds" under looser readings of the organizational-chart criterion. - [2026-09-02/03] Maduro's own legal team filed for head-of-state immunity, but a legal analysis (Sept. 7, 2026) states "The US judicial system's history of deferring to the White House on foreign policy matters makes the immunity case an uphill battle" — if Hellerstein's Nov. 17 hearing or ruling rejects Maduro's head-of-state claim (citing non-recognition by Washington), this would be a significant, officially documented U.S. legal/judicial finding that Maduro is not head of state, which proponents of Rodríguez's status could cite as external validation, even though it's not determinative for the Kalshi contract's Venezuela-institution-based criterion. - [2026-09-24] Legal commentary (Sept. 4, 2026) on the immunity fight notes that "Washington has refused to treat Maduro as Venezuela's legitimate leader since 2019... and courts typically defer to the executive branch on exactly this kind of recognition question" — underscoring that the most powerful outside actor (US executive branch) does not recognize Maduro, leaving Rodríguez as the only government head the US and increasingly IFIs deal with, a structural condition that could eventually translate into Venezuelan institutions formalizing her status if Maduro's continued detention/trial (set for June 2027) makes his "return" to office increasingly implausible. - [2026-04-06] Separately noted in colleague research, the U.S. State Department has already labeled Rodríguez the "sole Head of State" of Venezuela — a US designation that, while not a Venezuelan-institution action, represents one authoritative government source already using non-acting "head of state" language for her, which is the kind of precedent that could be echoed by Venezuelan state bodies before year-end if the National Assembly or STJ revisits her designation. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is not a dramatic legal reversal but creeping entrenchment: continued US backing, IMF/World Bank recognition, UN-level treatment of Rodríguez as Venezuela's representative, and a US judicial rejection of Maduro's immunity claim (hearing Nov. 17, 2026) could combine to pressure Venezuela's own institutions (STJ, National Assembly) to formally redesignate her as constitutional/non-acting president before Dec 31, 2026, though no such domestic reclassification has yet occurred. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any scheduled or pending STJ ruling, National Assembly vote, or PSUV party action to reclassify Rodríguez from "acting" to constitutional president; no outcome yet from the Nov. 17, 2026 immunity hearing; no confirmed election date that would resolve the headship question before year-end.

YES means: Delcy Rodríguez has shed the "acting/interim" label and is instead recognized — by formal appointment/swearing-in, by official Venezuelan government directories, or by actually exercising full, unqualified presidential authority — as the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 AM ET. The strongest NO case rests on the fact that Venezuela's own constitutional/legal architecture has been deliberately structured, and has so far been consistently applied, to keep her status "acting" rather than converting it into the real headship, and nothing currently in motion changes that before year-end. - [2026-01-04] The TSJ classified Maduro's capture as a "temporary absence" under Article 233 of the Constitution rather than an "absolute absence," which is the legally decisive technicality: an "absolute absence" would trigger a mandatory new presidential election within 30 days, while a "temporary absence" merely installs the VP for a capped 90(+90)-day acting term — a path Venezuela's institutions chose specifically to avoid converting Rodríguez into the constitutional titleholder. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election - [2026-04-06] Even after her own 90-day acting mandate legally lapsed, no public National Assembly vote was taken to extend her term, yet state institutions simply continued treating her as acting president anyway, showing the label persists by inertia/informal continuity rather than any fresh formal upgrade of status. https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired - [2026-04-06] A Venezuela analyst noted that past Chavista governments have used "legal interpretations to remain in power" in similarly open-ended ways, suggesting the 90-day-cap breach is likely to be papered over indefinitely rather than resolved into a clean succession. https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired - [2026-09-23] Reuters quoted Crisis Group analyst Phil Gunson noting the Venezuelan constitution "mandates a 2030 vote" for the next ordinary presidential election, and that "the government has not committed to the 2027 timeline sought by the opposition" — meaning even the opposition's own target for a new, elected president is 2027, after this market's Dec 31, 2026 deadline. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/venezuelas-rodriguez-promises-elections - [2026-09-23] The same Reuters dispatch states plainly that "no date — not even a tentative one — has been set" for elections, and that the opposition still sees "selection of an autonomous Supreme Court and National Electoral Council as essential" precursors that have not occurred. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/venezuelas-rodriguez-promises-elections - [2026-09-29] As recently as two days before this research, Rodríguez was formally petitioning the National Assembly — headed by her own brother Jorge Rodríguez — for a law reform while still identified only as "acting president of Venezuela," showing even her own government communications and letterhead continue using the "acting" qualifier in real time, not a title that would satisfy the contract's "officially holds" test. https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-09-29-u1-e129488-s27061-nid341470-delcy-rodriguez-pide-reformar-represiva-ley-contra - [2026-01-27] Nicolás Maduro Guerra (Maduro's son and a sitting legislator) stated elections are "not on the table," reinforcing that the government's own political family treats any near-term vote (and thus any legitimate transfer of the headship to Rodríguez) as off the table. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election - [2026-09-07 to 09-14 range implied] Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, has publicly ruled out elections in the near future, meaning the one legislative body that could formally act on her status shows no sign of doing so before year-end. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election - [2026-09-26] Maduro's U.S. federal trial was set for June 1, 2027, which under Venezuelan institutional logic preserves him as the nominal, un-convicted, un-removed constitutional president through the entire remainder of 2026, since no Venezuelan mechanism (resignation, TSJ removal ruling, recall referendum) has been triggered by his detention alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election - [2026-10-01] Wikipedia's live "President of Venezuela" infobox — the kind of "official government directories/organizational chart" source referenced in the Kalshi criteria — still lists the incumbent descriptor as "Acting since 5 January 2026," the exact qualifier the clarification says disqualifies "officially holds." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela BOTTOM LINE: Every mechanism that could convert Rodríguez's status from "acting" to "official" head of state — an Article 233 "absolute absence" declaration, a National Assembly vote formally re-upping or redefining her mandate, a scheduled/held presidential election, or Maduro's formal removal/resignation — has either been deliberately avoided, left procedurally unresolved, or pushed beyond 2026 (next ordinary election constitutionally due 2030; opposition's own ask is 2027; Maduro's trial is June 2027), so the status quo of "acting president, Maduro still nominal constitutional president" is structurally positioned to persist through Dec 31, 2026, supporting a NO resolution. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any pending National Assembly session, TSJ docket, or CNE announcement scheduled before Dec 31, 2026 that would reclassify Maduro's absence as "absolute" or otherwise formally upgrade Rodríguez's title; no primary-source (presidencia.gob.ve or Gaceta Oficial) confirmation beyond secondary/Wikipedia citation of her current official designation.