Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?

- [2026-10-01] As of today, the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics has not been awarded; the Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 has not been awarded yet and it will be announced on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, 11:45 CEST at the earliest (nobelprize.org, https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes-in-physics/). - [2026-02-02] The Nobel Foundation confirmed the Physics announcement will take place Tuesday, 6 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest, at The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Session Hall, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm (nobelprize.org, https://www.nobelprize.org/press-release/the-2026-nobel-prize-announcements/). - [2026-09-29] AIP confirms the same: the Nobel Prize in Physics is scheduled to be awarded Tuesday, Oct. 6, at 5:45 a.m. ET (aip.org, https://www.aip.org/aip/aip-coverage-of-2026-nobel-prize-in-physics). - [2026-09-17] Clarivate's "Citation Laureates 2026," a widely-watched Nobel bellwether list, does NOT include John Preskill: the 2026 Physics laureates named are Chihaya Adachi, Stephen R. Forrest, Nicola A. Spaldin, and Qikun Xue, honored for advanced OLED displays, energy-efficient computing materials, and quantum electronics — not quantum information/computing theory of the Preskill type (clarivate.com, https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-reveals-citation-laureates-2026-recognizing-transformative-scientific-breakthroughs/; nasdaq.com, https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/clarivate-reveals-citation-laureates-2026-recognizing-transformative-scientific). - [2026-09-17] Swiss outlet coverage of the Clarivate list names Nicola Spaldin as a leading Physics favorite, with no mention of Preskill among the tipped candidates (swissinfo.ch, https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/eth-researcher-nicola-spaldin-is-considered-a-favourite-for-the-nobel-prize/92073367). - [2026-09-30] The Scientist's crowdsourced reader predictions for 2026 Physics name John Pendry (metamaterials) as the lead pick, with "foundational work behind modern optics or quantum sensing" as an alternative — Preskill is not mentioned (the-scientist.com, https://www.the-scientist.com/who-will-win-the-2026-nobel-prize-scientists-make-their-predictions-75076). - [2026-09-08] On the Physics Forums 2026 predictions thread, an informal community poster ranked three "leading candidates" as Eugene Mele (97%), Alexei Kitaev (30%), and John Preskill for quantum computing research (20%) — this is an amateur crowd-sourced estimate, not an official odds source (physicsforums.com, https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/nobel-prize-in-physics-2026-predictions.1086166/). - [2026-09-03] The same thread lists Preskill only among a long roster of quantum-computing/information theorists (Shor, Deutsch, Loss, DiVincenzo, Ekert, Pan, Zoller, Cirac, Brassard, Bennett, Nakamura, Preskill, Kitaev) who were predicted-but-passed-over in 2025, reflecting that he is a perennial long-shot mentioned among many, not a frontrunner (physicsforums.com, same URL). - [2026 (undated bio)] Preskill's known honors are the 2024 John Stewart Bell Prize and earlier APS Fellowship/National Academy of Sciences membership; in 2024 John Preskill won the Bell Prize "For developments at the interface of efficient learning and processing of quantum information in quantum computation, and following upon long standing intellectual leadership in near-term quantum computing" — no subsequent major prize (e.g., Wolf Prize) has been reported for him in 2025-2026 (en.wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stewart_Bell_Prize). - [2025-10-07] For context, the 2025 Nobel Physics Prize went to John Clarke, Michel Devoret, and John Martinis for superconducting circuit tunnelling work, not to Preskill or quantum-information theorists (x.com/preskill, https://x.com/preskill). BOTTOM LINE: The 2026 Physics Prize has not yet been announced; the official announcement is scheduled for Tuesday 6 October 2026, before the question's close. Current expert/bellwether signals (Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026, The Scientist reader poll) do not list Preskill as a top pick, and he appears only as one of many long-standing quantum-computing names mentioned in informal crowd speculation, suggesting a low — though not zero — chance he is named a 2026 Physics laureate. NOT FOUND: No official Nobel nomination list (nominations are sealed for 50 years), no betting-market odds specific to Preskill's chances (excluded per instructions), and no indication of any 2026 pre-announcement leak naming Preskill.

- [2026-10-01] The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics will be announced Tuesday, 6 October 2026, before Kalshi's trading close of 1 Jan 2027, so this question will be resolved (or very strongly informed) within days, not months. The Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 has not been awarded yet. It will be announced on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, 11:45 CEST at the earliest. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes-in-physics/ - [2025-10-07] Base-rate headwind: the 2025 Physics Nobel already went to a quantum-information-adjacent topic — the 2025 Physics Nobel Prize was announced on October 7, 2025 and awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis "for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit." Nobel committees rarely repeat the same subfield two years running, which works against a quantum-computing/information theorist like Preskill winning in 2026. https://hg.gatech.edu/node/686173 - [2026-09-30] Physics World's own 2026 predictions, based on its long-running "fields due a prize" infographic and on Clarivate's 2026 Citation Laureates, lean heavily toward condensed-matter physics (OLEDs, multiferroics, quantum anomalous Hall effect) and possibly particle/nuclear physics (antihydrogen, quark-gluon plasma) — quantum information/computing theory is not among its featured 2026 contenders at all. The analytics company Clarivate has released its "Citation laureates 2026 in physics", which predicts Nobel winners based on the citation impact of their published research. Clarivate (and its predecessor Thomson Reuters) has a reasonably good record of picking winners and this year all three of its predictions are in condensed matter physics. https://physicsworld.com/a/is-this-the-year-for-a-nobel-prize-in-condensed-matter-or-maybe-particle-physics/ - [2026 (undated, current page)] Clarivate's own track record: Since 2002, 89 Citation Laureates have gone on to receive a Nobel Prize, highlighting the close relationship between exceptional research influence, as reflected in citations, and subsequent recognition by the Nobel committees — roughly an 18% eventual hit-rate (89 of 487 named), and typically only after a multi-year lag. Preskill is not on Clarivate's 2025 or 2026 physics lists (which named wavelet theorists in 2025 and OLED/multiferroics/QAH researchers in 2026). https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/ - [2026-09-29 to 10-01] Crowd/forum aggregation (Physics Forums "Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 predictions" thread) lists Peter Shor, David Deutch, Daniel Loss, David DiVincenzo, Artur Ekert, Jianwei Pan, Peter Zoller, Ignacio Cirac, Gilles Brassard, Charles Bennet, Yasunobu Nakamura, John Preskill, Alexei Kitaev and more for quantum computing and quantum information as a crowded basket of roughly a dozen plausible laureates for a hypothetical "quantum information" Nobel — since only up to three people can share a prize, any single name (including Preskill) faces heavy dilution within even this favorable scenario. https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/nobel-prize-in-physics-2026-predictions.1086166/ - [2026-09-30] Physics World's historical pattern example: physicists widely and repeatedly tipped as Nobel favorites can take over a decade to actually win, illustrated by the magazine's own experience with Zeilinger — Physics World we have had some luck with predicting who is going to win a Nobel Prize in Physics. One successful strategy is to identify top physicists and just keep predicting that they will win – and eventually they do! Preskill has been informally tipped as a quantum-computing contender for at least two cycles (2025 and 2026 forum threads) without yet winning, consistent with this "long wait" base rate. https://physicsworld.com/a/is-this-the-year-for-a-nobel-prize-in-condensed-matter-or-maybe-particle-physics/ - [2026-09-08] A forum poster's informal odds-aggregation (not a verified betting market, and possibly itself reflecting prediction-market pricing) ranked Preskill third among three "leading candidates," behind Eugene Mele and Alexei Kitaev, for the 2026 prize — indicating he is seen as a plausible but clearly non-favorite pick this cycle. https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/nobel-prize-in-physics-2026-predictions.1086166/ - [2026-09-30] Independent of quantum computing, other named "perennial" Nobel contenders (John Pendry/metamaterials, Hidetoshi Katori & Jun Ye/optical clocks, twistronics researchers, Aharonov/Berry on geometric phases) are cited by multiple outlets as at least equally or more likely picks for 2026, further diluting Preskill's relative share of the "who wins physics 2026" probability space. Hidetoshi Katori of Japan and Jun Ye of the United States developed optical atomic lattice clocks of staggering accuracy... Pioneered by John Pendry and David Smith, their work gave rise to the extraordinary concept of bending light around an object. https://bichitrobiggan.com/en/nobel-prize-physics-contenders/ - [2026-07 to present] Preskill's honors to date (Bell Prize 2024, National Academy of Sciences membership, Feynman Professorship) are prestigious within quantum information but are field-specific accolades rather than broad physics-wide honors (e.g., no Wolf Prize in Physics yet), which historically tends to precede a Nobel by several years for condensed-matter/AMO laureates. National Academy of Sciences member since 2014... Won the 2024 John Stewart Bell Prize for contributions to quantum information science. https://quantumzeitgeist.com/john-preskill/ BOTTOM LINE: The reference class of "frequently-tipped quantum-information theorists" has a historically low and slow conversion rate to an actual Nobel (Clarivate's own citation-based predictions convert at roughly 18% and usually only after many years of being named), Preskill is absent from both the 2025 and 2026 Clarivate physics shortlists, the 2025 Physics Nobel already went to an adjacent quantum-circuit topic (reducing likelihood of a second consecutive quantum-themed prize), and most outside-view prediction aggregators rank him third or lower behind condensed-matter and other quantum-computing figures — altogether a weak base-rate case for a Preskill win in 2026. NOT FOUND: No evidence that Preskill has ever been named a Clarivate Citation Laureate in Physics (could not confirm via Clarivate's lists, which for 2026 include only OLED, multiferroics, and QAH-effect researchers); no official Nobel Committee shortlist exists (nominations sealed 50 years) to corroborate any crowd ranking; could not find a dedicated non-Kalshi betting market (e.g., Polymarket, bookmaker) odds specifically for Preskill as an individual, only aggregated "quantum computing" baskets.

YES means: the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences names John Preskill a recipient of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics when it announces the prize on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 (before the market's 1 Jan 2027 close). - [2025-10-02] Physics World itself predicted a quantum-information Nobel in 2025, naming Shor, Brassard, Bennett and Deutsch as its top picks — showing serious outlet-level belief that "quantum information theory founders" are overdue for recognition, the exact reference class Preskill belongs to (physicsworld.com). - [2026-09-30] Physics World's 2026 follow-up again frames the prize as a toss-up between condensed matter, particle physics, and a possible second shot at quantum information, keeping the "quantum information theorist" pathway alive for 2026 even though its headline picks lean elsewhere (physicsworld.com). - [2025-12] Preskill received the Quantum World Congress "Academic Pioneer in Quantum" award, with QWC crediting him that "John's work gave quantum computing its roadmap" — a fresh, 2025-dated honor beyond the 2024 Bell Prize, showing continued accretion of field-wide recognition (caltech.edu). - [2022-12] Preskill was appointed to the White House's National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee, the federal body advising the President on quantum policy — elevating his public/policy profile beyond pure academic citation counts (quantumzeitgeist.com). - [2026-09-08] On the Physics Forums aggregation thread, an informal poster assigns Preskill a non-trivial ~20% "chance" estimate as the third-ranked of three named leading candidates, behind Eugene Mele (97%) and Alexei Kitaev (30%) — not a majority view, but evidence he is treated as a live contender this specific cycle rather than a pure long-shot (physicsforums.com). - [2026-08-18] An independent "Nobel shortlist" tracker (RicherNews) reports that Kalshi's own Physics prediction market — with roughly $8.2K traded as of 18 Aug 2026 — is a three-way race it frames as a "quantum trio: Kitaev, Kane & Preskill," meaning the market structure itself treats Preskill as one of only three plausible outcomes being actively priced, rather than one name among dozens (richernews.com). - [ongoing] Preskill is widely credited as having coined "quantum supremacy" and "NISQ," and for foundational work establishing quantum error correction as the path to scalable quantum computing — exactly the kind of field-defining, decades-long conceptual contribution (rather than a single discrete discovery) that Nobel committees have rewarded in adjacent 2024 (AI) and 2025 (quantum circuits) prizes (quantumzeitgeist.com, caltech.edu). - [2024] Preskill's Bell Prize citation explicitly credits him with "long standing intellectual leadership in near-term quantum computing" — the Bell Prize is widely regarded within the field as a leading indicator for quantum-foundations/quantum-information Nobels (he shares this honor's lineage with prior Bell Prize winners Devoret and Gisin, both subsequently tied to Nobel-adjacent recognition) (en.wikipedia.org). - [mechanism] The single most plausible path to YES: the Nobel Committee, having just awarded 2025's prize to an experimental quantum-circuit result (Clarke/Devoret/Martinis), pivots in 2026 to honor the theoretical/conceptual side of the same broader "quantum information revolution," picking Preskill alongside one or two other foundational quantum-computing theorists (e.g., Kitaev, Shor, or Bennett/Brassard) in a three-person award recognizing quantum error correction and the theoretical foundations of fault-tolerant quantum computing. BOTTOM LINE: Preskill is not a Clarivate- or bookmaker-crowned frontrunner, but he is one of a small number of names (alongside Kitaev) persistently cited across multiple independent 2025–2026 trackers as a plausible "quantum information theory" laureate, backed by recent (2024–2025) prizes and a policy-level public profile; his realistic path to YES runs through the committee choosing to recognize quantum-computing theory broadly rather than any single discrete discovery, with him as one of up to three co-laureates. NOT FOUND: No official Nobel nomination list naming Preskill (sealed 50 years); no major 2026 citation-based shortlist (Clarivate) including him; no confirmed non-Kalshi bookmaker or Polymarket odds specific to Physics 2026; no evidence of a 2025-2026 Wolf Prize in Physics (field not rotating to physics before the relevant Nobel window) that would have signaled momentum.

YES means: the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences names John Preskill a co-recipient of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics when it is announced (scheduled Tue 6 Oct 2026) and that result stands through Kalshi's 1 Jan 2027 close. - [2026-10-01] Physics World's own 2026 Nobel preview — a venue with a multi-decade "fields due a prize" track record — argues the two most likely 2026 physics fields are condensed-matter and particle/nuclear physics, floating antihydrogen-trapping (ATHENA/ALPHA) as its particle-physics dark horse; quantum information/computing theory is not even considered as a live field this cycle. "Looking at the latest version of the infographic it appears that both condensed-matter physics, and particle and nuclear physics are due a prize," and the author identifies antihydrogen-trapping work at CERN's ATHENA and ALPHA collaborations as a contender. - [2026-10-01] The same Physics World piece confirms Clarivate's 2026 Citation Laureates are unanimous in condensed matter, not quantum information theory: "The field of condensed matter is much more fruitful when it comes to potential Nobel prizes," with Clarivate's 2026 predictions "all three... in condensed matter physics." - [2026 (current)] The John Stewart Bell Prize — the specific quantum-foundations/quantum-information award Preskill won in 2024 — passed him over again in its most recent 2026 round, going instead to Antoine Browaeys, Mikhail Lukin, and Mark Saffman "for pioneering contributions to quantum simulation and quantum computing with neutral atoms in optical tweezer arrays." This shows that even within Preskill's own narrow prize lineage, the field's "next big name" momentum has shifted to a different trio of experimentalists, not back to him. - [2026-09-30/10-01] Physics Forums' running 2026 aggregation thread — the only source attempting numeric odds — ranks Eugene Mele far ahead of Preskill ( "Eugene Mele known for the theory of topological insulators and quantum spin hall effect (chances 97%)... Alexei Kitaev for many topological related stuff including quantum computing research (30%)... John Preskill for quantum computing research (20%)" ), placing Preskill third of three named "leading candidates," not first. - [2026-09-30] The same thread even notes a possible information leak favoring Mele, not Preskill: "The fact that Mele went so high in the last couple days might mean that there is a leak (which would not be the first time for the Nobel)." If any genuine leak signal exists this cycle, it points away from Preskill. - [2026-09-30] Reader-crowdsourced predictions at The Scientist for 2026 Physics center on metamaterials pioneer John Pendry, explicitly calling him "a condensed matter physicist at Imperial College London, for his work on metamaterials and the science of invisibility cloaks... a perennial candidate," with Preskill absent from the piece entirely. - [2026 (current)] A rival topological-insulator figure, Charles L. Kane, picked up the Lorentz Medal in 2026 (per his Wikipedia awards list), adding a fresh, high-profile physics-wide honor to a competing "topological/quantum" lineage that several forecasters already rank above Preskill — reinforcing that institutional recognition this cycle is flowing toward condensed-matter topologists, not quantum-information theorists. - [2026 (current bio)] Preskill's strongest personal accolades remain field-specific (2024 Bell Prize, 2014 NAS membership, Feynman Professorship) rather than the broad, physics-wide prizes (Wolf Prize, Lorentz Medal, Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics) that have historically preceded a Nobel for comparable theorists by several years, per Quantumzeitgeist's biography. "National Academy of Sciences member since 2014... Won a 1997 wager with Stephen Hawking on the black hole information paradox... Awarded the 2024 John Stewart Bell Prize." - [2026 (current)] Preskill's own recent public framing of quantum computing emphasizes long, multi-decade timelines rather than an imminent landmark discovery of Nobel caliber, consistent with committees preferring to wait for a more unambiguous breakthrough before honoring the subfield again so soon after 2025's circuit-tunnelling prize. - [2026-10-01] Mechanically, even in the single scenario where the Nobel committee does pick "quantum computing/information" as 2026's theme, the Physics Forums roster lists roughly a dozen plausible co-laureates (Shor, Deutsch, Loss, DiVincenzo, Ekert, Pan, Zoller, Cirac, Brassard, Bennett, Nakamura, Preskill, Kitaev) for a prize capped at three winners, so Preskill's conditional share of that already-unlikely scenario is heavily diluted — consistent with his 20% "crowd odds" versus Mele's 97% and Kitaev's 30% in the same informal aggregation. - [2026-09-29] AIP's and Nobel Foundation's confirmed schedule still places the binding announcement on 6 Oct 2026, 11:45 CEST, meaning the question resolves (almost certainly NO on current evidence) well before the 1 Jan 2027 close, leaving no realistic path for a late reversal absent the actual committee decision. BOTTOM LINE: Every fresh 2026-dated forecasting source — Physics World's institutional infographic, Clarivate's unanimous condensed-matter picks, The Scientist's reader poll, and the most detailed crowd-aggregation thread — either omits Preskill entirely or ranks him behind multiple other named favorites, while his own specialty's most relevant recent honor (2026 Bell Prize) went to three different researchers; this is a strong, multi-source case for NO. NOT FOUND: No official Nobel Committee shortlist (sealed 50 years); no dedicated Polymarket or bookmaker market isolating Preskill individually (only crowded "quantum computing" baskets); no indication of a credible pre-announcement leak naming Preskill specifically.