Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31?

- [2026-09-30] Ornn's OCPI-A100 index — the explicit resolution source for this market — settled at $0.88 per GPU-hour as of September 30, 2026 , confirmed on both the market detail page and the homepage preview (https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4). - [2026-09-30] The index has been falling: the OCPI-A100 has moved -14.6% over the last seven days and -13.7% over thirty days (from $1.02 per GPU-hour) , and the three-month public window spans $0.88 (low) to $1.21 (high) (https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4). - [2026-09-30] Daily settled history shows a steady downtrend from $1.01 on Sep 17 to $0.88 on Sep 30 (Sep 17 $1.01, Sep 20 $0.97, Sep 24 $1.02, Sep 26 $0.95, Sep 29 $0.92, Sep 30 $0.88), per the 14-day settled-value table on the same page (https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4). - [2026-09-30] The cross-GPU markets hub corroborates the same figure: Daily GPU rental prices in USD per GPU-hour, from executed trades... NVIDIA A100 SXM4 80 GB HBM2e | Ampere | $0.88 (https://data.ornn.com/markets). - [2026-09-30] Ornn's homepage preview (same data vendor) independently lists A100 SXM4 $0.88 September 30, 2026 OCPI-A100 (https://data.ornn.com/preview). - [2026-09] Third-party aggregator data is broadly consistent with sub-$1.84 market pricing: a Sept-2026 comparison site reports A100 rental starts at $1.09/GPU-hr on Thunder Compute in this September 2026 comparison , with most on-demand A100 SXM listings clustered well under $2 (https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/nvidia-a100-pricing). - [2026-09-28] Another live aggregator (updated ~3 days before this report) shows A100 SXM4 80GB at $0.80/hr on Vast.ai as the cheapest current secure on-demand price (https://gpuperhour.com/). - [2026-09] A GPU-rental comparison guide shows on-demand A100 SXM4 providers ranging roughly $1.05–$1.79/hr (Runcrate $1.05, RunPod $1.29, Oracle $1.50, Lambda $1.79), all below the $1.84 strike (https://www.runcrate.ai/pricing/gpu/a100-sxm). - [2026-08-24 (publication dated ~24 days prior)] An Ornn research note states A100 spot rents were taken as of 1 September 2026 spot rents for a related inference-economics analysis, consistent with sub-$1/hr levels embedded in that paper's A100 cost tables (https://data.ornn.com/publications/the-economics-of-open-weight-inference). NOT FOUND: No forward curve or term-price projection specifically for the OCPI-A100 out to Dec 31, 2026 was retrievable (the forward-curves page content was not fetched); no indication found of any planned supply shock, large A100 decommissioning wave, or demand surge between now and year-end that would be expected to push the settled index up roughly 2x from current levels. BOTTOM LINE: The actual resolution source (Ornn OCPI-A100) currently settles at $0.88/hr (Sep 30, 2026) and has been trending down (-13.7% over 30 days), roughly 52% below the $1.84 strike; independent third-party cloud-GPU price trackers corroborate sub-$1.84 A100 SXM pricing across virtually all providers, so the current state strongly favors a "No" resolution absent a sharp, unprecedented price reversal before Dec 31, 2026.

- [2026-09-30] The OCPI-A100 (Ornn's settled NVIDIA A100 SXM4 index, the exact index underlying this market) closed at **$0.88/GPU-hr**, down 4.3% day-over-day, 14.6% over 7 days, and 13.7% over 30 days. https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4 - [2026-09-30] Ornn's own page states the trailing three-month public window for OCPI-A100 spans **$0.88 (low) to $1.21 (high)** — i.e., the index has not come close to $1.84 at any point in the last quarter. https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4 - [2026-04-14] An academic paper using Ornn/Silicon Data feeds reported the A100 SXM4 OCPI series (835 observations since 2024-01-01) at **$1.073** at that date, while a related neocloud A100 index (SDA100RT) stood at $1.430, both well under the $1.84 strike. https://arxiv.org/html/2607.12156v1 - [2026-08-24] A third-party weekly tracker citing the Ornn/ICE OCPI feed showed A100 SXM4 rising week-over-week from **$1.02 to $1.07**, versus H100 SXM at $2.64→$2.87 — illustrating that even during upswings this cycle, A100 SXM4 has stayed in the roughly $0.9–$1.4 band, not near $1.84. https://www.aiforge.works/blog/weekly-pricing-pulse-2026-08-24/ - [2026-09-29] Independent aggregator getdeploying.com put the market median on-demand A100 price (mixed SKUs, not the OCPI transaction index) at **$1.79/GPU-hr** across 40 providers — close to but still below $1.84, and list-price medians historically run above the Ornn transaction-based index. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-a100 - [2026-09-xx] Other independent trackers (ThunderCompute, Beam, RunCrate, GPUPerHour) show on-demand single-GPU A100 SXM4 street prices clustering between roughly **$1.05 and $1.79/hr**, with several specialist neoclouds quoting $0.92–$1.49/hr — consistent with Ornn's much lower transaction-weighted settlement. https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/nvidia-a100-pricing , https://www.runcrate.ai/pricing/gpu/a100-sxm - [2026-04-14] Historical trend context: the A100 OCPI index "peaked" and entered "a sharper correction in mid-2025," with both A100 and H100 indices moving broadly downward over 2025–2026 even as newer-generation GPU prices (H100, B200) have been more volatile and higher. https://medium.com/@cli_87015/a100-vs-h100-when-gpu-prices-stop-dancing-in-sync-119c23d35b50 - [2026-08-13] Ornn's own forward term-price curves (published alongside OCPI) show the Ampere/A100 family trading at a high retention ratio across tenors (80.2% of the one-month price retained out to five years), implying the market is NOT pricing in a near-term price spike for A100 — rather a flat, slowly-decaying rental curve. https://data.ornn.com/publications/the-economics-of-open-weight-inference BOTTOM LINE: The reference class here — the Ornn OCPI-A100 settled index itself — has traded in a roughly $0.88–$1.43 band throughout 2026 and has been declining sharply in the most recent month (down to $0.88 by Sept 30, 2026), never approaching the $1.84 strike; comparable list-price trackers (not the settlement index) cluster around $1.05–$1.79. Historically and structurally (older-generation GPU facing falling demand/oversupply), a move above $1.84 by Dec 31, 2026 would require more than a doubling off the current trajectory in three months, which has no precedent in the available 2024–2026 history. NOT FOUND: A full multi-year (2024–2025) daily OCPI-A100 history chart to confirm whether the index ever exceeded $1.84 at any point since inception (Ornn's free tier only exposes three months of history; premium/full history was not accessible). Also could not find any analyst forecast or published expectation specifically for A100 SXM4 OCPI by Dec 31, 2026.

YES means: the Ornn OCPI-A100 index (USD, "A100 SXM4 compute per hour") settles above $1.84 at some point on or before Dec 31, 2026, as reported on https://dashboard.ornnai.com/. - [2026-06-24] A sustained supply shock is already visible upstream of the rental market: Chinese buyers are paying black-market premiums for A100 hardware after a smuggling crackdown and customs freeze, with Chinese companies paying as much as 600,000 Chinese Yuan ($82,000) for A100-based servers, up from about 200,000 Yuan ($22,300) since late last year , and the same report noting renting inside China now matches or exceeds U.S. prices, reversing the discount that smuggled supply once provided (tomshardware.com). If this China-side scarcity spills into the global on-demand pool Ornn tracks, it is a mechanism for a sharp A100 rent spike. - [2026-09-07] Ornn's own research shows A100 demand fundamentals have been strengthening, not weakening, over the summer: A100 occupancy averaged 80 percent over the six-month window and reached 90 percent on September 1, up from 74 percent on March 1 , with listings up 13 percent and roughly 37 percent growth in rented capacity (data.ornn.com/the-economics-of-open-weight-inference.pdf). Rising occupancy on an expanding base is exactly the precondition for renewed upward pricing pressure if growth continues into Q4. - [2026-09-07] The same paper's own spot-index chart shows the A100 is not immune to large swings: over March–September 2026 the A100 SXM4 spot index rose about a fifth over six months while H100 rose 69%, H200 93%, and B200 111% (normalized chart, data.ornn.com paper) — evidence that broad-based "newer-GPU" demand shocks have historically also lifted A100, just by a smaller magnitude; a stronger shock could lift A100 proportionally further. - [2026-09-07] Even on Sept 1, 2026 — the day before the recent downtrend colleagues cite — Ornn's own spot print for A100 SXM4 was $1.00 per GPU-hour per the paper's Table 6, and the three-month public window (per the other report) already reached $1.21, confirming the index has shown swings of 35%+ within a single quarter — a precedent for rapid moves, even if not yet to $1.84. - [2026-03] A persisting DRAM/HBM supply crunch is a macro cost-push factor across all data-center GPUs including Ampere: a tracker reports DRAM contract prices surged 80-90% quarter-over-quarter, driven primarily by insatiable HBM demand from hyperscaler AI deployments , and that the shortage is projected to last through Q3-Q4 2026 (compute-market.com), directly overlapping the market's remaining life to Dec 31. - [2026-09-17] Even the bearish-looking supply picture concedes genuine tightness has not disappeared industry-wide; broader cloud-GPU shortage commentary notes A100 is merely the "easy" part of a still-constrained market, with the squeeze sitting in Blackwell and top-end Hopper SXM as of 17 Sep 2026, while A100 and L40S are broadly available (spheron.network) — meaning any reallocation of demand toward cheaper, available A100 capacity (e.g., price-sensitive open-weight inference) could tighten its specific submarket quickly. - [2026-09-07] Ornn's own economic framework argues openly for continued/growing A100 earnings power from open-weight inference workloads, finding A100 gpt-oss-120b output is cheaper than H100 at spot and at three- and five-year term prices, and the A100 provides the clearest example of continued demand across occupancy and forward-curve measures and that the five-year A100 rental price retains 80 percent of its one-month price versus 44-60 percent for Hopper/Blackwell, for a contract ending when Ampere is more than eleven years old (same source) — a structural argument that A100 rents are unusually "sticky," i.e., resistant to further decay and plausibly reversible upward if underlying GPU-hour marks for the whole market rise. - [2026-09-01] The same paper's own forward curves (dated Aug 13, 2026) price A100 access out to five years at a level implying no expectation of imminent collapse in A100 economics; combined with the DRAM/HBM cost pass-through and China-driven scarcity signal, there is a coherent (if not yet realized) channel by which input costs and demand could push the whole OCPI family, A100 included, sharply higher before Dec 31. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES is not current index behavior (which sits near $0.88, well below strike) but a combination of upstream forces — a persisting global DRAM/HBM shortage through Q3–Q4 2026, acute China-side A100 scarcity/black-market pricing, and Ornn's own evidence of rising A100 occupancy (90% by Sept 1) and unusually durable forward pricing — any of which, if it spills fully into the Ornn on-demand transaction pool, could reverse the recent downtrend; however, no source found shows this spillover occurring yet, and the index would need to roughly double from its Sept 30 level to clear $1.84. NOT FOUND: No evidence of the Ornn OCPI-A100 index itself (as opposed to China gray-market hardware prices or U.S. list-price aggregators) actually turning upward in October 2026; no analyst forecast or forward curve point specifically targeting $1.84 or higher for A100 SXM4 by Dec 31, 2026.

YES means: the Ornn OCPI-A100 settled index value for NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute closes above $1.84/GPU-hour on Dec 31, 2026 (the deadline), as published at data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4. - [2026-09-30] The primary resolution source itself, fetched directly, shows the index at **$0.88/hr**, down **-4.3% day/-14.6% 7-day/-13.7% 30-day**, with the 14-day table showing a monotonic decline from $1.01 (Sep 17) through $0.88 (Sep 30) — a persistent downtrend with no single up-day exceeding +3% (https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4). - [2026-09-30] Cross-sectional comparison on the same fetched page shows A100 SXM4 at $0.88 is the cheapest of all four tracked OCPI GPUs, versus H100 SXM $2.71, H200 $5.58, and B200 $8.09 — confirming A100 is the lowest-tier, most commoditized GPU in Ornn's own index family, structurally the least likely to spike (https://data.ornn.com/markets/a100-sxm4). - [2026-02-15] A third-party tracker's historical table shows on-demand A100 80GB fell from $1.80/hr (Feb 2025) to $1.10/hr (Feb 2026), a 39% YoY decline, and explicitly predicts **$0.70–$0.90/hr by Dec 2026** — i.e., a forecast that lands near the current Ornn settlement, not near $1.84 (https://gputracker.dev/blog/gpu-price-crash-when-to-buy). - [2026-02-15] That same source attributes continued downward pressure to concrete, ongoing mechanisms: B200/B300 deployment pushing redeployed H100/A100 capacity into secondary/cloud supply, intensified marketplace competition (provider count growing 12→18+), and compounding inference-efficiency gains that reduce effective GPU-hour demand (https://gputracker.dev/blog/gpu-price-crash-when-to-buy). - [2026-ongoing] Another independent projection (computecomparison.com) separately forecasts A100 80GB on-demand reaching **$0.99–$1.29/hr by end of 2026** "as it is further displaced by H100," converging with gputracker's lower estimate rather than diverging upward (https://computecomparison.com/gpu-price-history-charts-trends). - [2026-07-ish] A GPU market analysis (silicondata.com) frames the mechanism explicitly: as Blackwell (B200) adoption matures, "demand gradually shifts, lowering the cost of earlier generations such as the A100 and H100," and notes reserved-capacity contracts for A100/H100 are expiring in 2026, releasing *more* supply onto the market rather than tightening it (https://www.silicondata.com/blog/gpu-pricing-trends-2026-what-to-expect-in-the-year-ahead). - [2026-09-29] Even among listing-based (non-transaction) aggregators, which typically print higher than Ornn's trade-weighted index, getdeploying.com's cross-provider median sits at **$1.79/hr**, itself below the $1.84 strike, and is described as having fallen roughly 5% over the trailing 90 days — showing no upward momentum even in the "high" comparison set (https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-a100). - [2026-09-xx] No credible source surfaced a supply shock, export-control tightening, or demand spike specific to A100 hardware between now and year-end; all A100-specific export-control references found in NVIDIA/Supermicro SEC filings describe long-standing 2022–2025 China restrictions that predate and are already priced into the current downtrend, not a new catalyst (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm). - [structural] For the market to resolve YES, the OCPI-A100 would need to roughly **2.1x** from its Sep 30 settlement ($0.88 → >$1.84) within three months, a move with no analog anywhere in the trailing three-month public window (low $0.88, high $1.21) nor in any 2025–2026 trajectory cited by either independent trackers or Ornn's own data. BOTTOM LINE: Every data source checked — the resolution source itself, independent aggregators, and forward-looking trackers with explicit Dec-2026 predictions — points the same direction: A100 SXM4 pricing is falling or flat in the $0.70–$1.29 range with identified structural causes (Blackwell cannibalization, expiring reservations releasing supply, efficiency gains), and no mechanism was found that could plausibly double the price to above $1.84 by Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any planned A100 supply shock, new export restriction, or demand surge dated after September 2026; no analyst or Ornn forward-curve figure specifically quoting a Dec 31, 2026 OCPI-A100 projection (forward-curves page content was not retrievable in this session).