Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

- [2026-08-04] Gov. Greg Abbott announced a moratorium on the approval of data centers until regulatory agencies can audit proposed data centers seeking connection to the state's electric grid , an executive-branch directive, not legislation. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/texas/articles/2026-08-04/data-center-approvals-in-texas-halted-until-audits-completed-gov-greg-abbott-says - [2026-09-21] Abbott ordered the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to stop issuing new permits for data centers, strengthening his moratorium ; this is an agency directive via letter, still not a statute. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/21/texas-data-center-moratorium-water-energy/ - [2026-09-21] The governor's official press release confirms the TCEQ halt is implemented by executive directive ("Governor Abbott today directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality... to halt all permits"), with no accompanying bill or constitutional provision. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-08-10] Primary legislative-status fact: the Texas Legislature is not in regular session. The 89th regular session ended June 2, 2025, and the 90th Legislature does not convene until January 12, 2027 — after this market's Dec 31, 2026 deadline. https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/hyperscale/article/55396202/texas-tightens-oversight-of-data-center-development - [2026-08-10] Abbott has publicly committed only to pursuing data-center legislation (sales-tax repeal, cooling/water rules, grid cost responsibility) in the 2027 regular session , not via emergency statute in 2026. https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/hyperscale/article/55396202/texas-tightens-oversight-of-data-center-development - [2026-08-05] Despite bipartisan pressure (Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller-R, Democratic legislators, advocacy groups), a spokesperson for Abbott's office did not immediately respond to a question... about whether the governor intended to call a special session , and no special session has since been called. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-greg-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/ - [2026-08-05] A political science professor assessed that it's unlikely that Abbott will call a special session to tackle data centers this year... "He generally reserves special sessions for issues he knows he can pass and only calls lawmakers back when leadership is united and there's a realistic path to passing legislation." https://www.eenews.net/articles/texas-data-center-critics-push-for-special-session-2/ - [2026-07-12] A state lawmaker said it would make little sense for Abbott to call a special session so near the start of the next regular session in January , reinforcing expectations of no special session before 2027. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/texas-hold-special-session-data-094555486.html - [2026-08-19] Reporting notes calls have been growing for Abbott to call a special session to tackle data centers. Texas' regular legislative will not convene again until January unless Abbott calls lawmakers to Austin sooner. https://www.eenews.net/articles/texas-data-center-approval-halt-scrambles-grid-plans/ - [2026-08-20] CBS Texas reporting shows Abbott deflecting direct calls for a special session, emphasizing ongoing PUC/ERCOT data-collection efforts instead of committing to convene lawmakers. https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/abbott-says-his-data-center-pause-texas-working-democrats-urge-call-special-session-issue/ - [2026-09-08] Local governments (Hill County, Lewisville, Denton, North Richland Hills, Athens, Fort Worth) have pursued ordinances or moratoriums, but these are local, not statewide, and explicitly excluded by the market's resolution criteria. https://therealdeal.com/texas/2026/09/08/data-center-moratoriums-restrictions-bans-throughout-texas/ - [2026-09-22] CNBC notes the political backdrop: data centers have been a flash point in the 2026 midterm elections, including Abbott's bid for reelection , with the November 2026 election seen as a likely trigger/end point for the current executive pause rather than a catalyst for statutory moratorium. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/texas-governor-abbott-ai-data-center-permits.html NOT FOUND: No evidence of any filed bill, special-session proclamation, or legislative vote establishing a statewide statutory data-center moratorium; no confirmation that Abbott has called or plans to call a special session before year-end 2026. BOTTOM LINE: All Texas "moratorium" actions to date (August–September 2026) are executive/agency directives from Gov. Abbott to PUCT, ERCOT, and TCEQ, which explicitly do not qualify under the resolution criteria requiring statutory or constitutional enactment; the Legislature is out of session until January 12, 2027, and no special session has been called, making statutory enactment of a statewide moratorium by December 31, 2026 highly unlikely absent an unexpected special session and swift bill passage.

- [2026-06-04] Only one statutory statewide data center moratorium has cleared a US legislature to date: New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act (one-year permit pause, ≥20 MW), which imposes a one-year moratorium on state permits for new large data centers with peak demand of 20 megawatts or more, clearing the Senate 44–16 and the Assembly 102-39 on June 4, 2026 . This shows a statutory moratorium is achievable but remains a rare, single-state event even amid a nationwide wave of bills. - [2026-04-00] Maine's legislature passed a comparable bill (LD 307) but it was vetoed by the governor: Maine was on the verge of becoming the first U.S. state to enact a statewide moratorium on large data centers, but Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill in April 2026, which would have imposed a temporary halt on any new projects that require at least 20 megawatts of power until late 2027 — illustrating that even where legislatures act, gubernatorial veto frequently blocks enactment. - [2026-03-09] The reference class has expanded rapidly: at least 12 in-session states have filed data center moratorium bills this cycle , yet out of ~12+ filed bills, only NY's has actually become (or nearly become) law — a conversion rate from "bill filed" to "enacted statute" well under 10% so far in 2026. - [2026-02-20] Several other states' moratorium bills have stalled: Oklahoma's SB 1488 and South Dakota's SB 232 were reported as unlikely to pass or stalled in committee, per OK S.B. 1488 which would place a moratorium on data center development with an electrical load greater than 100 MW until November 1, 2029... Presently, OK S.B. 1488 appears unlikely to pass during this legislative session . - [2026-08-05] In Texas specifically, no moratorium bill exists because the Legislature is not in session; a statewide moratorium statute requires either the 2027 regular session or a gubernatorial special-session call, and advocates have been explicitly pushing for the latter: "Absent a special session, the governor's powers are limited," the organization said... "The legislature's next regular session is in five months, putting any legislation signed into law nearly a year away from having any impact." - [2026-08-06] A University of Houston political scientist assessed a special session as very unlikely given electoral timing: Nancy Sims, a political science lecturer at the University of Houston, said it's highly unlikely that Abbott will call a special session... "He's not going to call a special session with an election less than 100 days away." - [2026-09-21] Instead of statutory action, Abbott has relied entirely on executive/agency directives (letters to TCEQ, PUC, ERCOT, TWDB), which the market's rules explicitly exclude from "enactment": Greg Abbott ordered the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality on Monday to stop issuing new permits for data centers... directing the agency to halt all permits to data centers until ERCOT and TWDB complete an audit . - [2026-09-21] Abbott's own statement signals the statutory path is deferred to the 2027 regular session, not before: "Next session, Governor Abbott will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers." - [2026-08-19] Legislative committee activity so far is limited to interim hearings, not bill-passage, and participants note bills are being drafted for the next session rather than any imminent special session: "While the Legislature is not in session, lawmakers are gathering input, and testimony from the hearings will guide them as they craft bills next year." - [2026-07-00] A Sierra Club analysis underscores the structural timing obstacle: "the next regular legislative session is scheduled to begin on January 12 and end on May 31, 2027, and because new laws generally do not take effect until 90 days after they are passed, any new restrictions on hyperscale data centers and AI facilities likely would not take effect until next fall - assuming they pass at all." The regular session's start date (Jan 12, 2027) falls after the Dec 31, 2026 resolution deadline regardless. - [2026-09-30] As of the most recent reporting, Abbott continues to resist calling a special session despite sustained bipartisan pressure (Democrats, GOP Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, grassroots groups), with his spokesman reiterating reliance on the ongoing TCEQ/ERCOT/PUC/TWDB audit process rather than legislative action. BOTTOM LINE: The outside-view reference class (≥12 states with filed 2026 moratorium bills) shows only one enacted statutory moratorium nationwide (New York) and one high-profile veto (Maine), implying enactment is a low-probability, multi-month legislative process even when bills are filed; Texas currently has no bill in an active session, its legislature does not reconvene until January 12, 2027 (after the market deadline), and expert/political observers consider a special session—the only mechanism that could produce a statutory moratorium before year-end 2026—highly unlikely before the November 2026 election and apparently not planned afterward either. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any Texas-specific moratorium bill having been filed, introduced, or scheduled for a special session vote; no confirmed special session call by Abbott as of the latest search results (through late September/early October 2026); no betting-market or professional forecaster odds specifically on Texas statutory enactment (distinct from this contract's own price, which was not sought).

YES means: Texas enacts a statute or constitutional provision between Sept 29, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 that imposes a mandatory, statewide, default-prohibition moratorium on new data centers (or on all facilities above 100 MW), via a mechanism that fits the resolution criteria's definition of "enactment" (gubernatorial signature, veto override, or becoming law without signature). - [2026-08-04/09-21] Gov. Abbott has already escalated executive action twice in under two months — first freezing PUCT/ERCOT grid-interconnection approvals, then directing TCEQ "to halt all permits sought by data centers until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) completes its audit," with no state agency allowed to move forward "until it is acquired" — showing clear executive-branch appetite and capacity for immediate, sweeping restriction, which is the only demonstrated precedent for turning political pressure into fast action in Texas this cycle. - [2026-09-21] Abbott's own press release explicitly commits to statutory follow-through, stating "Next session, Governor Abbott will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers" — confirming the Governor himself intends to convert the moratorium into law, demonstrating political will exists even if the stated timeline (next session) falls outside the window. - [2026-07-07/08-04/09-?] Republican Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller has repeatedly and publicly demanded Abbott " impose an immediate moratorium, and establish strong statewide guardrails... Governor, call the special session ," showing sustained bipartisan intra-party pressure from an elected statewide GOP official, not just outside advocacy groups, which raises the political cost of continued inaction and keeps the special-session option alive as a live possibility through the fall. - [2026-08-19] Reporting confirms the structural trigger for YES is strictly limited to one mechanism: "Calls have been growing for Abbott to call a special session to tackle data centers. Texas' regular legislative will not convene again until January unless Abbott calls lawmakers to Austin sooner." A special session is legally capable of producing a statute within days, since Commissioner Miller notes "A special session may last only a few days and cannot exceed 30 days," meaning if Abbott called one even in November or December, a moratorium bill could in principle pass and be signed before Dec 31. - [2026-03-27] Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has already made "Managing Data Center Growth" an official interim charge, directing senators to "study the adequacy of current statutory, regulatory, and infrastructure frameworks to meet the rapidly increasing demand from large electric loads, such as data centers," and "recommend ways to balance economic development benefits of this growth against the impacts on landowners, private property rights, water infrastructure, and community integrity" — meaning draft legislative language and committee groundwork exist and could be fast-tracked if a special session were called, shortening the time needed to pass a bill versus starting from scratch. - [2026-09-29] Lt. Gov. Patrick, campaigning for reelection, stated he wants to "put his ideas into law so they are there permanently," acknowledging executive "guardrails" are temporary and signaling top GOP leadership alignment on eventually codifying restrictions — a precondition for any statute to pass once a session (regular or special) occurs. - [2026-09-??] The Texas data-center fight is an active 2026 midterm flashpoint, with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa and lt.-gov nominee Vikki Goodwin both campaigning explicitly on calling a special session and/or writing moratorium-style restrictions into law, and dallasnews reporting notes Hinojosa "has said the timing of the moratorium will allow data center development to move forward as soon as the election is over" and "has urged the governor to call a special session of the Legislature" — meaning a contested, nationally watched November 3, 2026 election keeps the issue maximally salient through Election Day, which is the most plausible point at which Abbott (win or lose) could face enough pressure, or enough political safety post-election, to call a special session before year-end. - [2026-06-04] The national precedent is not zero: New York's legislature passed a statutory one-year data-center permit moratorium (≥20 MW) in June 2026, proving that even in the current environment, a bill of this type can move through a full legislative process and reach enactment within a single season when political will and a majority align — a template Texas GOP leadership (Patrick, House Speaker Burrows) could invoke if a special session were called. BOTTOM LINE: The single viable path to YES is a special session called by Abbott between now and roughly early December, combined with expedited passage of a mandatory, statewide moratorium bill and his signature — a sequence for which there is real (if contested) political momentum (Miller, Hinojosa, Goodwin, interim Senate/House charges already drafted) and a feasible legal timeline (sessions can run a lawmakers can act within days), making YES not impossible, but contingent entirely on an Abbott decision he has so far avoided. NOT FOUND: No evidence Abbott has called, scheduled, or publicly committed to a special session as of Oct 1, 2026; no draft moratorium bill text, bill number, or special-session proclamation language has surfaced in any search; no reporting indicating a post-election (Nov 3) special session is specifically planned.

YES means: the real-world outcome where the State of Texas enacts, via gubernatorial signature, veto override, or voter referendum, a statute or constitutional provision imposing a mandatory statewide moratorium (prohibiting by default) on new data center approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation — applying to all or a ≥100 MW-qualifying subset of such facilities — between Sept 29, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-01] No Texas special session has been called as of today; every tracked action remains executive-letter directives to PUCT/ERCOT/TCEQ/TWDB, confirmed on the governor's own site, which explicitly frames legislative action as deferred: "Next session, Governor Abbott will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers." https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-09-21] The TCEQ directive itself sets an internal compliance checkpoint of "TCEQ shall provide an update to the Office of the Governor on its compliance with this directive by Monday, October 19, 2026" — an agency reporting deadline, not a statutory deadline, underscoring the process is administrative, not legislative. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-09-21] Reporting frames Abbott's escalating moratorium actions explicitly as pre-election maneuvering rather than a precursor to statute: the TCEQ halt is described as "the latest in a series of escalating efforts by the governor to slow data center development in Texas ahead of November's election" . https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/21/texas-data-center-moratorium-water-energy/ - [2026-09-21] Abbott's Democratic gubernatorial opponent publicly predicts the pause is temporary and tied to Nov. 4 election, not legislation: "He's called for a temporary pause, which most of us believe goes away the day after the election, Nov. 4," Hinojosa told CBS News... "That only is an attempt to protect his reelection chances, not the people of Texas." This signals the expected political endpoint is an election date, not a statutory enactment. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/greg-abbott-halts-data-center-permitting-texas-22440748.php - [2026-09-21] Independent reporting confirms the construction freeze is expected to run only through audit completion, not indefinitely by statute: "those projects still need air and water permits to begin construction. By freezing action at TCEQ, Abbott's order has effectively halted all new data center construction until at least December." https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/greg-abbott-halts-data-center-permitting-texas-22440748.php - [2026-09-28] A specialist tracker estimates the ERCOT audit underlying the freeze is "until ERCOT completes its grid audit, expected in mid-December" , meaning even the executive-branch pause is slated to lift administratively around the market deadline rather than convert into statute. https://www.datacenterbans.com/ - [2026-09-08] As of early September, calls for a special session remained unanswered: a political-science assessment held it "unlikely that Abbott will call a special session to tackle data centers this year," said Brandon Rottinghaus... "I suspect he won't... He generally reserves special sessions for issues he knows he can pass." https://www.eenews.net/articles/texas-data-center-critics-push-for-special-session-2/ - [2026-08-04] Even Abbott's own Republican Agriculture Commissioner, a vocal critic, characterizes the governor's steps as non-statutory: "Without legislative action, this directive is all hat and no cattle — empty political rhetoric wrapped in meaningless fluff," Miller said , confirming no party (including allies pushing hardest) claims a statute is imminent. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-greg-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/ - [2026-10-01] Texas's constitutional mechanics compound the inertia: a special session can only be called by the Governor and "is limited in scope and time, since it can only last 30 days... the governor has the ability to call as many special sessions as he wants" — but none has been initiated, and with the Nov. 4 election and Dec. holidays, there is no realistic 30-day window left to convene, draft, pass both chambers, and sign a moratorium bill before Dec. 31. https://afj.org/article/return-of-the-texas-special-session-what-nonprofits-need-to-know/ - [2026-03-09] The national base rate reinforces NO: across "at least 12 in-session states with filed data center moratorium bills this cycle" , only New York has enacted one, and Texas is not even among the "in-session" states able to file a bill before 2027, since its legislature is out of session entirely. BOTTOM LINE: Every Texas moratorium action through Oct 1, 2026 is an executive/agency directive expressly carved out by the market's rules; the Legislature is out of session until Jan 12, 2027, no special session has been called, experts and even pro-moratorium Republicans expect none, and Abbott's own statements and reporters' analyses point to the current freeze lapsing (via the ERCOT audit, expected mid-December) or being a post-election political maneuver rather than evolving into a statute — all of which argues strongly for NO by Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any filed Texas moratorium bill text, no special-session proclamation or agenda including data centers, and no indication Abbott has altered his stated preference for addressing the issue only in the January 2027 regular session.