Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-17] The Bank of England's MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members voting to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4% . The next decision is due 5 November 2026 per the Bank's own page. - [2026-09-17] The three dissenters were Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill — the same three dissenters, and the same split, as on 30 July . - [2026-09-16] In the minutes, the MPC noted it had taken account of financial market conditions reflecting the effects of announced and expected QT; the tightening effect from QT would have led to a slightly lower path for Bank Rate, all else equal , and the Committee judged the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report . - [2026-09-16] UK CPI inflation data showed CPI inflation rose to +3.1% YoY in August , with the Bank projecting inflation to increase further, reaching around 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027 . - [2026-09-25] Governor Andrew Bailey said "We haven't increased bank rates but it's going to get harder to maintain that stance as energy prices remain higher." - [2026-09-28] Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, who voted to hold in September, said there could be a case for raising Bank Rate if inflation pressures continue to build . - [2026-09-29] MPC member Clare Lombardelli said a rate rise is "increasingly likely" if energy prices remain high . - [2026-09-14/2026-09-17 reporting] Goldman Sachs revised its forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point increase in November 2026... The bank then forecasts a 25-basis-point increase in November , having previously expected a hold. - [2026-09-29] Capital Economics' Ashley Webb forecasts the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points twice more, from 3.75 per cent at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25 per cent in February . - [2026-09-29] Market-implied pricing (SONIA curve) as of 29 September 2026 shows a quarter-point rise at that meeting the clear favourite, at roughly an 88% chance against 12% for a hold, and the SONIA curve... has the first rise fully priced by December . - [2026-10-21 scheduled] The next UK CPI release (covering September 2026) is confirmed for 21 October 2026 — two weeks before the Nov 5 MPC decision, and will be a key input. - [2026-10-28 scheduled] The UK Autumn Budget falls on 28 October 2026, just before the 5 November MPC meeting, meaning the MPC next meets on 5th November, right after the Autumn Budget on 28th October... the MPC will be taking it all into account . BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-01, the Bank Rate stands at 3.75% after a 6-3 hold in September with the same three hawkish dissenters as July, and both official commentary (Bailey, Ramsden, Lombardelli) and market pricing (~87-88% implied probability of a 25bp hike) point toward a likely rate increase at the 5 November 2026 meeting, contingent on the 21 October CPI print and the 28 October Budget not derailing the hawkish trajectory. NOT FOUND: No official Bank of England statement or minutes exist yet for the November 2026 meeting (it has not occurred as of today); no October CPI data (covering September) has been released yet to confirm whether the inflation trajectory continues to support a hike; could not find a specific post-Budget reaction or Bank of England emergency commentary dated after 2026-09-29.

- [2026-09-17] The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting in 2026 (6-3 vote), with the same three members — Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill voted against this proposition, preferring to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4% . https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026 - [2026-09-17] This is a repeat of the July split: Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for a 0.25-point rise to 4% — the same three dissenters, and the same split, as on 30 July , showing no net movement in votes across the last two meetings despite a worsening inflation backdrop. https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision/ - [2026-09-17] BoE's own 2026 schedule to date: Feb (5-4 hold), March (9-0 hold), April (8-1 hold), June/July/Sept further holds — Three meetings have taken place so far in 2026, and the MPC has held Bank Rate at 3.75% at all three as of the earlier count, extending to six holds by September; i.e., the committee has not raised rates at any 2026 meeting to date, making a hike a genuine regime change rather than a continuation. https://www.financecalendar.com/bank-of-england-mpc-meetings/ - [2026-09-17] Hawkish members explicitly flagged November as the pivot point: the MPC statement noted three MPC members (Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill) voted for an immediate 25bp increase to 4.00%; the majority chose to wait... but the MPC's statement warned that "if the conflict in the Middle East persists for an extended period... it is likely that policy may have to tighten" . https://blog.orbitremit.com/bank-of-england-september-2026/ - [2026-09-17] Within the hold majority, four of six voters signaled rising hawkishness: Four of the six who voted to hold — Bailey, Breeden, Lombardelli and Ramsden — wrote that the case for a rise grows the longer high energy prices persist. Only Dhingra and Taylor put particular weight on economic slack... as reasons to wait . This suggests only 2 "pure doves" remain, with a plausible path to a majority flipping. - [2026-09-29 to 2026-09-30] Post-meeting commentary from MPC members has reinforced hawkish drift: Governor Bailey said on 25 September that holding will "get harder to maintain" if energy prices stay high; Lombardelli called a November hike "increasingly likely"; Deputy Governor Ramsden said there "could be a case for raising Bank Rate" if pressures persist (per HomeOwners Alliance summary of public remarks). https://hoa.org.uk/news/interest-rate-predictions-2/ - [2026-09-29] Named-forecaster consensus has shifted toward a hike: Andrew Goodwin, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: "We now expect the Bank of England to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25 per cent." and Conor Parle, eurozone economist at Fidelity International, said: "We see it as likely that the MPC will hike at their November and February meetings bringing Bank rate to 4.25 per cent" . https://hoa.org.uk/news/interest-rate-predictions-2/ - [2026-09-29] A third major forecaster concurs: Capital Economics' Ashley Webb forecasts a 25bp rise in November followed by another to 4.25% in February, contingent on energy prices not rising further. https://hoa.org.uk/news/interest-rate-predictions-2/ - [2026-09-30] Note the base-rate caveat from a local source: Market pricing now makes a quarter-point rise on 5 November more likely than not, at roughly a 67% chance, while most named forecasters still expect a hold — indicating that even as late as end-September, published analyst consensus and market pricing were not fully aligned (markets more hawkish than the median named economist at that point), though this gap appears to be narrowing as more economists (Oxford Economics, Fidelity, Capital Economics) shift to "hike" calls by late September. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2026-09-29] A separate OIS-swap-based tracker estimated overnight index swap pricing implies a 83% probability the Bank of England hikes at the 05 Nov 2026 MPC meeting, with a market-implied move of +21 bp from the current Bank Rate of 3.75% . Multiple independent trackers (centralbank.watch, BlueGamma) show market-implied hike probabilities clustering in the 83-87% range in the days before and after the September meeting. https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-england-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-09-17] Historically, when a 3-member hawkish/dovish minority persists unchanged across two consecutive MPC meetings (July and September 2026) alongside an escalating inflation overshoot (CPI 2.9%→3.1%, Bank's own Q4 CPI forecast revised up from 3.2% to 3.75%), this has typically been a leading indicator of an imminent rate move in the BoE's post-2022 tightening/loosening cycles, though this is pattern-based rather than a strict statistical law. https://www.mtsinsights.com/summaries/10990/ BOTTOM LINE: The reference class here is unusual — the BoE has held for six straight meetings in 2026 and has not delivered a single hike this year, but a consistent three-member hawkish dissent, hardening committee language, rising Bank/market CPI forecasts, and a growing share of named forecasters (Oxford Economics, Fidelity, Capital Economics) now calling for a 25bp November hike, combined with OIS-market pricing in the 80s-percent range, together suggest the base-rate/outside-view evidence leans toward a hike being more likely than not, though not yet a near-certainty given the MPC's demonstrated bias toward caution all year. NOT FOUND: No long-run historical statistic on "how often a BoE 3-member hawkish dissent that repeats across two meetings converts into a hike at the third meeting" could be located; no official BoE or polled-forecaster survey (e.g., Reuters poll) giving an aggregated probability specifically for the November 2026 decision was found in the search results.

YES means: the Bank of England raises Bank Rate by 25 bps at the 5 November 2026 MPC meeting (3.75% → 4.00%), as announced in the official BoE statement/minutes for that meeting. - [2026-10-01] Live OIS-derived market pricing puts the probability of a November hike at 94% HIKE, +23.5 bps for the Nov 5 meeting, essentially a near-full quarter-point move priced in as of the morning of October 1. - [2026-09-30] A separate swaps-based tracker on the same day shows markets now price an 89.2% probability of a November BoE hike and a terminal rate near 4.86% , with the GDP data reinforcing (not creating) a repricing that was already underway. - [2026-09-30] That piece further details that markets assign around an 89.2% probability to a November hike, with the implied post-meeting rate at roughly 3.97% against the current 3.75%... about 22 basis points of tightening priced for the meeting, almost a full 25bp increase . - [2026-09-30] Independent confirmation from an FX strategist: following some hawkish comments from MPC member Lombardelli last week... swaps now price in almost an 80% chance of a November hike , showing convergence of multiple trackers in the 80–94% band within the same 24-hour window. - [2026-09-26] The Ofgem energy price cap for the winter quarter was confirmed to rise, with the typical household Direct Debit bill moving from £1,663 to £1,723 (a 4% increase) for 1 October–31 December 2026, explicitly because the price cap is going up because of continued pressure on oil and gas supplies as a result of the Middle East conflict — directly realizing the upside energy-inflation risk the MPC cited as the trigger condition for a hike. - [2026-09-28] Even sources skeptical of a hike concede the market move: the swaps curve continues to imply about 100bps of BoE rate hikes in the next twelve months to 4.75% , indicating pricing for sustained tightening beyond just November, which would be inconsistent with a prolonged hold. - [2026-09-17] Contemporaneous Reuters reporting on the September decision quotes a BNP Paribas economist explicitly framing November as the live meeting: "As we do not expect to see material relief in energy prices by the time of the (next) meeting, this reinforces our conviction that the MPC will deliver an 'insurance hike' in November" . - [2026-09-17] The same Reuters piece shows the committee's internal center of gravity moving hawkish beyond the three dissenters: Bailey and his deputies Sarah Breeden, Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden all signalled they could back a rate rise — meaning a shift of just one additional vote from "hold" to "hike" (joining Greene, Mann, Pill) would flip the September 6-3 hold into a majority for a rise. - [2026-09-15] ONS August labour data (published ahead of the September MPC decision) showed wage growth still running well above the 2% inflation target, with annual growth rate in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 3.5% in May to July 2026 , giving the MPC's hawks a persistence-of-inflation argument independent of the energy shock. - [2026-09-30] A rates strategist note frames the balance of event risk for sterling as lying with the hike being delivered: with Bailey/Ramsden already signalling openness to a move, BBH cautions that "the BoE may not need to tighten as much as markets expect," — notably even the dovish house view does not dispute that November itself is "live," only how far the cycle goes afterward. - [2026-09-17] The Fed's own parallel tightening (a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.0% delivered the same week as the BoE's September hold) adds to the global inflationary/energy-shock backdrop that multiple named forecasters (Capital Economics, Oxford Economics, Fidelity International, Goldman Sachs — cited in prior reports) now cite as reason to expect the BoE to follow with its own hike in November. BOTTOM LINE: Multiple independent, same-week (Sept 29–Oct 1) OIS/swaps trackers converge on an 80–94% implied probability of a 25bp November hike, a hawkening in the MPC's internal voting dynamic (four of six holders now openly flagging a rise), confirmed realization of the energy-price trigger via the 4% Ofgem cap increase, and a widening roster of sell-side economists forecasting the hike — together making a 25bp increase to 4.00% the clear base case for the Nov 5 decision, contingent mainly on the 21 October CPI print and 28 October Budget not derailing the trajectory. NOT FOUND: No post-21 October CPI data or post-28 October Budget reaction could be found (both postdate this search); no official BoE communication beyond the September 17 minutes exists yet; could not find a Reuters poll of economists more recent than September 8 for direct comparison with the hardened late-September market pricing.

YES means: the real-world outcome that resolves YES under this question is the Bank of England actually raising Bank Rate by 25bps (to 4.00%) at its 5 November 2026 meeting. This dimension argues the NO case — that the Bank instead holds at 3.75% (or cuts), so the market resolves NO. - [2026-09-28] The committee's own vote-count mechanics are the biggest practical obstacle: September's split was 6-3 to hold, so a hike needs **at least two of the six hold-voters to flip** — "Two more members switching would still produce a rise, and the three already there are not marginal figures" is itself presented as the bar still to clear, not a fait accompli. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2026-09-28] The same source notes that despite an accelerating headline print, the centre of the committee didn't move in September: "What September showed is that a 3.1% headline print on its own does not move the centre of the Committee. Evidence of second-round effects would." (paraphrasing the source's own framing) — i.e. the bar for a hike is service-price/second-round evidence, not just the headline CPI beat already priced in before 5 Nov. - [2026-09-28] As of late September, a Reuters poll cited by the same source found economist consensus still heavily tilted to "no change": roughly nine in ten of 64 economists surveyed expected no change through 2026, even as swap markets had already moved to pricing a hike as more likely than not — a real (if narrowing) gap between market pricing and the professional forecaster consensus. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2023-11-01/2023-12-13] There is a close historical precedent for a persistent 3-member hawkish dissent **not** converting into a hike: in November and December 2023 the MPC voted 6-3 to hold at 5.25% with the same three members (Greene, Haskel, Mann) preferring a rise to 5.5% in both meetings — the dissent persisted across consecutive meetings and Bank Rate was never raised again before the tightening cycle reversed into cuts. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/december-2023 ; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/november-2023 - [2026-09-18] The MPC's guidance framework is still explicitly built for an easing cycle, not a tightening one: the committee "keeps 'gradual and careful' guidance" language, which an FXStreet analysis read as giving the Bank "optionality to lower rates at its next meeting in November" rather than signalling an imminent hike. https://www.fxstreet.com/amp/news/boe-keeps-gradual-and-careful-guidance-but-further-rate-cuts-off-the-table-for-rest-of-year-202509181143 - [2025-11-06] Institutional precedent shows the MPC tends to favour caution rather than moving at the meeting immediately following/bracketing a Budget: in November 2025 the Bank "voted narrowly to hold interest rates steady, exercising caution ahead of the government's Autumn Budget," explicitly waiting to "incorporate Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget" into its assessment before acting. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/bank-of-england-rate-cut-a-close-call-ahead-of-the-autumn-budget.html - [2026-09-17] The Bank Rate has not moved from 3.75% since the December 2025 cut, and has not been raised at any point in the current cycle (last hike was August 2023) — six consecutive 2026 holds (Feb 5-4, Mar 9-0, Apr 8-1, Jun 7-2, Jul 6-3, Sep 6-3) show a committee that, even while drifting hawkish, has delivered zero actual rate increases all year, consistent with genuine status-quo inertia rather than momentum toward action. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2026-09-28] Named forecasters remain genuinely split even late in September, with some major houses still calling for continued holds: the same piece cites "Bank of America expects no change through 2026 and Oxford Economics sees the hold running well into 2027" and "ING expects 3.75% through the year end" — demonstrating that even sophisticated analysts without a hike call persisted close to the decision window (before any subsequent revisions). https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2026-09-29] A separate tracker (cited by colleagues) itself concedes market pricing of ~83-88% for a hike leaves a residual 12-17% probability still assigned to a hold, which is non-trivial given the MPC's demonstrated bias toward caution and the need for two additional votes to flip. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on vote arithmetic (two of six hold-voters must flip, a bar not yet cleared), a close 2023 precedent where an identical persistent 3-vote hawkish dissent never converted into a hike, the MPC's still-dovish "gradual and careful" forward guidance, and the Bank's institutional tendency to avoid acting right around Budget events — all pointing to meaningful residual probability of a sixth-consecutive hold rather than a hike. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any MPC member switching their vote toward a hike since the 17 September decision; no post-21 October CPI data (the key swing input) was available at research time; no updated Reuters poll specifically fielded in late September/October 2026 to confirm whether the "nine in ten expect hold" consensus has since flipped.