Above 9000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 9k

- [2026-03-23] CDC published provisional 2025 TB data showing there were 10,260 TB cases reported in 2025, down 1% from 2024 , confirming the prior year's full-year total was comfortably above the 9,000 threshold. Source: CDC Provisional 2025 Tuberculosis Data (https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html), referenced via https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20260331/tb-cases-decline-slightly-in-us-after-recent-surge - [2026-02-12] The CDC's provisional 2025 report states it reflects data reported to the National TB Surveillance System as of February 12, 2026 , and was the basis for the 10,260-case 2025 figure; CDC's homepage for TB data still highlights this as the latest major report as of early Oct 2026. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/index.html - [2026-03-28] The CDC's weekly NNDSS table for week 12 of 2026 shows a cumulative year-to-date total of 1,365 U.S.-resident TB cases through that week, versus 2,044 at the same point in 2025 (week 12 cumulative), i.e. provisional weekly counts were running roughly one-third lower than the prior year's provisional pace at that checkpoint. Source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254926/cdc_254926_DS1.pdf - [2025-12-27] The final week-52 NNDSS weekly table for 2025 (week ending Dec 27, 2025) shows a cumulative provisional YTD count of 9,282 U.S.-resident cases versus 10,370 at the same point in 2024 — illustrating that weekly provisional NNDSS cumulative counts consistently run below the finalized annual totals (10,260 for 2025) due to reporting lag, i.e. in-year weekly snapshots understate the eventual full-year count by roughly 1,000 cases. Source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251277/cdc_251277_DS1.pdf - [2024 full year] In 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed 10,388 tuberculosis cases — the highest total since 2011 , and 2023 finalized at 9,622 (per CDC-sourced compilations), both well above 9,000. Source: https://www.medicaldaily.com/tuberculosis-cases-us-decade-high-2024-2025-cdc-public-health-475901 - [2026-09-09] CDC's NNDSS "Table 1JJ" dataset on data.gov (which hosts the live weekly TB case tables used for 2026 tracking) shows a "Dataset Last Updated" timestamp of September 09, 2026, confirming weekly NNDSS TB reporting is active and current through early September 2026. Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nndss-table-1jj-tuberculosis-to-tularemia-f2384 - [2026-03-31] Commentary on the 2025 decline noted Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia reported decreases in cases. Among the states that reported a substantial decline in cases was Kansas, which saw an outbreak of TB in the Kansas City metro area in 2024 that had inflated 2024's count; this outbreak's resolution is a downside factor for 2026 relative to 2024's peak. Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/tuberculosis/cdc-data-suggest-small-decline-us-tb-cases - [2026-03-31] Despite the 2025 dip, the decline follows a steady rise in US TB cases from 2021 through 2024, an increase the CDC has said may be related to disruptions to TB services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic , suggesting the underlying elevated baseline (far above 9,000) persists into 2026 even if growth has leveled off. - [2026 YTD, Week 12 state detail] The week-12 2026 NNDSS table shows 56 current-week cases and a national cumulative YTD of 1,365 cases nationally by late March 2026, with California (4 that week, cumulative contributions reflected in the "Pacific" region total of 352 max/52-week) and New York City (13 that week) among the largest contributors, consistent with historical geographic concentration patterns. Source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254926/cdc_254926_DS1.pdf - [No confirmed mid-2026 weekly snapshot found] No weekly NNDSS TB table for mid-2026 (e.g., June–September 2026) beyond week 12 (March 28, 2026) could be located in search results, meaning the most recent verifiable weekly cumulative TB count is from Q1 2026; more recent weeks almost certainly exist in CDC's live system but were not retrievable via search snippets. BOTTOM LINE: TB cases in the US have exceeded 9,000 in every year since 2022 (9,622 in 2023; 10,388 in 2024; 10,260 provisional for 2025), and the only verified 2026 data point (week 12, cumulative ~1,365 cases through late March) is consistent with a full-year trajectory likely to again land well above 9,000, barring an implausible mid-year collapse in case reporting. NOT FOUND: A weekly or monthly NNDSS TB cumulative count for any 2026 period after week 12 (March 28, 2026) — i.e., no April–September 2026 weekly table was retrievable; also no CDC/Kalshi-specific commentary on this market's current pricing or on any official mid-year 2026 TB projection.

- [1989] U.S. TB elimination era baseline: in 1989 there were 23,495 TB disease cases reported, with an incidence rate of 9.5 per 100,000 , showing the reference class has fallen dramatically over 35+ years. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/executive-commentary/index.html - [2021] Pandemic-era trough: reported TB cases increased from 7,870 in 2021 to 8,331 in 2022, a 5.9% increase , the low point of the post-pandemic series — well below the 9,000 threshold. https://www.cdc.gov/tb/php/dear-colleague-letters/2023-reported-tuberculosis-2022.html - [2023] First post-pandemic year to cross 9,000: cases increased from 8,320 in 2022 to 9,615 in 2023, an increase of 1,295 cases; the rate also increased from 2.5 per 100,000 persons in 2022 to 2.9 in 2023 . This was a 16% increase from 2022 and the highest number reported since 2013 , establishing the first "Yes"-equivalent year in this market's reference class. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7312a4.htm, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/tuberculosis/us-reports-2023-rise-tb-cases-incidence - [2024-09-ish/2026-release] 2024 confirmed well above 9,000: the national TB case count was 10,388 and the corresponding incidence rate was 3.1 per 100,000 population, representing a 7.9% increase in case count versus 2023, and 39 of 52 jurisdictions reported increases in TB case counts and rates from 2023 to 2024 — second consecutive year above the 9,000 line. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/data/incidence-mortality.html, https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/executive-commentary - [2026-03-23] CDC's provisional 2025 data (most recent finalized-style annual figure) shows the trend plateauing just above 10,000: TB cases in the United States remained elevated over pre-pandemic levels, with a slight decrease (1%) in cases compared to 2024... There were 10,260 cases provisionally reported in 2025, compared to 10,395 cases in 2024 — a third straight year comfortably above 9,000. https://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/director-letters/2025-provisional-tb-data.html - [2026-03-23] By jurisdiction, 2025 shows mixed but generally stable counts: In 2025, 10,260 TB cases were provisionally reported with a corresponding rate of 3.0 cases per 100,000 population... Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia reported decreases in TB case counts and rates from 2024 to 2025 , indicating a modest cooling rather than reversal of the multi-year uptrend. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html - [2026-02-27] Some state-level reporting suggests 2025→2026 growth could resume: some states are reporting preliminary data to the National Tuberculosis Coalition of America that shows that the number of cases grew from 2024 and 2025 by between 10% and 20% , an outside estimate that conflicts somewhat with CDC's -1% national figure, underscoring reporting lag/discrepancy risk. https://stateline.org/2026/02/27/tuberculosis-cases-have-been-rising-as-public-health-agencies-struggle-to-keep-up/ - [2026 YTD] Localized 2026 outbreak data (Kansas) shows continued active transmission: as of late September 2026, Kansas health officials had recorded 55 active TB cases and 156 latent cases this year, concentrated in the Kansas City metro area, consistent with ongoing elevated activity rather than a sharp drop-off. https://yahoo.com/news/us/articles/kansas-records-more-200-tuberculosis-154524383.html - [2026 ongoing] CDC MMWR's September 2026 issue featured a "Large Tuberculosis Outbreaks — United States, 2017–2023" analysis, indicating continued CDC attention to outbreak dynamics but no confirmed 2026 national case count yet published. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index2026.html - Base-rate pattern: the last 4 calendar years with final/provisional data (2022: 8,331; 2023: 9,615; 2024: 10,388–10,395; 2025: 10,260) show 2 of 4 years below 9,000 and the most recent 2 years (2024, 2025) both well above 9,000, i.e., the "Above 9,000" outcome has been true in the most recent back-to-back years and the trend has plateaued near 10,200–10,400, roughly 13–15% above the strike. BOTTOM LINE: Over the last two complete reporting years (2024: ~10,390; 2025 provisional: ~10,260), U.S. TB cases have consistently landed 1,200–1,400 cases (13–15%) above the 9,000 threshold, and even the slight 2025 dip did not come close to dropping below it; absent a sudden, unprecedented single-year decline of >1,200 cases (something not seen even during the sharpest historical swings outside the 2020 COVID anomaly), the base rate strongly favors resolution as Yes for 2026. NOT FOUND: No official CDC report specifically for calendar-year 2026 case counts exists yet (annual/provisional reports lag by several months, with the 2025 provisional report only released March 2026 and the full 2025 surveillance report expected "later in the fall" of 2026); no comprehensive national 2026 year-to-date aggregate figure was found, only scattered state-level data (e.g., Kansas) and MMWR outbreak analyses.

YES means: the CDC/NNDSS-reported total number of TB disease cases in the United States during 2026 exceeds 9,000. - [2026-07-10] A July 2026 journalist tip-sheet citing CDC's provisional data reports that more than 10,000 cases were reported in the United States in 2025, with roughly 1,000 in New York alone , reinforcing that the most recent complete-year baseline sits ~11% above the 9,000 strike even before any 2026 growth. Source: https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2026/07/tuberculosis-on-the-rise-in-us-local-story-angles-to-consider/ - [2026-09-?] A CDC MMWR analysis (reported via Newsweek) found 50 large outbreaks—defined as 10 or more related cases within a three‑year period—across 23 states, up from just 24 outbreaks recorded from 2014 to 2016 , and that nearly 80 percent of people involved in large outbreaks were U.S.-born , indicating structural, ongoing transmission chains (not just importation) that continue to feed case counts into 2026. Source: https://www.newsweek.com/cdc-warns-large-tuberculosis-outbreaks-doubled-in-us-since-mid-2010s-11906565 - [2026-09-29] Kansas's state health department reported an active 2026 outbreak with Active tuberculosis cases - 55, Kansas City Metro - 38 plus Latent tuberculosis cases - 156, Kansas City Metro - 131 , showing a single metro outbreak alone contributing dozens of confirmed 2026 cases and a large latent pool that could convert to additional active cases before year-end. Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/kansas-records-more-200-tuberculosis-154524383.html - [2026-02-27] Outside the CDC's own provisional figure, the National Tuberculosis Coalition of America's executive director said some states are reporting preliminary data to the National Tuberculosis Coalition of America that shows that the number of cases grew from 2024 and 2025 by between 10% and 20% , an independent signal pointing to case growth, not decline, feeding into 2026's starting trajectory. Source: https://stateline.org/2026/02/27/tuberculosis-cases-have-been-rising-as-public-health-agencies-struggle-to-keep-up/ - [2026-09-27] CDC's data.gov catalog entry for NNDSS Table 1JJ (Tuberculosis to Tularemia) was inventoried/updated as of September 27-28, 2026, with CDC's live weekly table noting Tuberculosis data for weeks 32-33 are incorrect for the U.S. Residents, excluding U.S. Territories total and the grand total, due to data processing issues — confirming active, ongoing 2026 case accrual even amid known provisional-data revision noise, which historically revises counts upward as follow-up completes. Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nndss-table-1jj-tuberculosis-to-tularemia-6a98d - [2026-09-07 week] A CDC-sourced weekly aggregator shows the week ending September 7, 2026 logged 56 new U.S. TB cases with a 4-week average of 75/week; cumulatively, this is consistent with the national base rate (the same aggregator's leading jurisdictions were New York City, California and New Jersey) that has delivered 9,600–10,400 cases in each of the last three finalized years. Source: https://viruswatcher.com/blog/whats-going-around - [2026-03-23] CDC's own provisional report explicitly cautions that in-year counts are undercounts: the report notes its 2025 figures reflect data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System as of February 12, 2026 , and CDC states the fuller annual surveillance report is typically released later in the fall — meaning any seemingly "low" 2026 weekly/mid-year running total is near-certain to be revised upward well after the fact, a pattern that has pushed every year since 2022 above 9,000 once finalized. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on persistence: three straight years (2023, 2024, 2025) have landed 9,600–10,400, independent state-level reporting (NTCA) suggests 2025→2026 growth rather than decline in many jurisdictions, active outbreaks (e.g., Kansas City metro) are still generating dozens of new 2026 cases with large latent pools to convert, and CDC's own provisional methodology systematically understates in-year totals before upward revision — all of which point toward a 2026 total comfortably clearing 9,000 even if the headline weekly pace looks softer than 2025's. NOT FOUND: No official CDC mid-year or Q3 2026 cumulative national TB case total (a single hard number) could be retrieved — only scattered weekly snapshots (most recently week ending Sept 7, 2026, via a third-party aggregator) and state-level figures (Kansas); no finalized 2026 annual or semi-annual CDC report exists yet, as the agency's own cadence places full-year analysis in "later...fall" following the year's close.

YES means: the real-world outcome where the CDC's reported/counted U.S. tuberculosis disease case total for calendar year 2026 is above 9,000, as it stands when evaluated on January 8, 2027. The NO case below argues this measurement — not the eventual "true" annual total — is what resolves the market, and that it is genuinely at risk of landing at or below 9,000. - [2026-09-10] The live NNDSS "Table 1JJ" TB dataset on data.gov shows a "modified" timestamp of September 10, 2026, confirming weekly provisional reporting (the system actually used for a January 8 resolution date) is still running on the same lagged, revision-prone cadence described by CDC's own data-quality notices. Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nndss-table-1jj-tuberculosis-to-tularemia-f2384 - [2026-09-07] A secondary tracker summarizing CDC's week-ending-September-7, 2026 NNDSS table reports national TB at only 56 cases that week versus a 4-week average of 75, explicitly labeling the national TB trend "falling" at that point in the year. Source: https://viruswatcher.com/blog/whats-going-around - [2026-03-28] CDC's own week-12 NNDSS table states plainly that "Case counts for reporting years 2025 and 2026 are provisional and subject to change," and that weekly cumulative figures reflect "ongoing revision of information and delayed reporting" — meaning the number available on any fixed date (like the market's January 8 resolution snapshot) is mechanically a lagging undercount, not the eventual finalized total. Source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254926/cdc_254926_DS1.pdf - [2026-03-28] That same week-12 table shows the 2026 cumulative (1,365) running roughly one-third below the already-provisional 2025 cumulative at the identical checkpoint (2,044) — a gap that, if it persists into the week-52 snapshot used for resolution, would translate a ~9,282 week-52 2025 provisional cumulative (per colleagues' Dec 27, 2025 table) into something closer to 6,000–7,500 for 2026's week-52 provisional count, well under 9,000. Source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254926/cdc_254926_DS1.pdf - [2026-03-23] CDC's own 2025 provisional report explicitly states "the annual surveillance report is typically released later in the fall," meaning the finalized, revised-upward 2025 total (10,260-adjacent) was not available until many months after year-end — implying the analogous finalized 2026 figure will not exist by the market's January 8, 2027 deadline, forcing resolution onto the lower, still-provisional NNDSS snapshot. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html - [2025-11-14] Per Wikipedia's sourced timeline, the Kansas City-area TB outbreak that inflated 2024–2025 counts had its last new active case in April 2025, and Kansas officials declared the outbreak over on November 14, 2025, after all patients completed treatment — removing a concentrated case-cluster that had been propping up recent-year totals, consistent with a 46% Kansas case decline already noted for 2025 and likely further attrition in 2026. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%932025_Kansas_tuberculosis_outbreak - [2026-03-23] CDC's provisional-data notice itself warns that "these data are preliminary and may change when final numbers are published later this year," underscoring that any count available at the January 8 cutoff is explicitly disclaimed by CDC as non-final and likely to understate the eventual total — a technicality that favors a NO print if the market's Source Agency hierarchy defaults to the provisional NNDSS feed rather than waiting for finalized figures that won't exist yet. - [2026 ongoing] No national, non-provisional 2026 full-year TB count exists anywhere yet; the only verifiable mid-year trajectory data (week 12 cumulative of 1,365, and the week-ending-September-7 weekly rate of 56 against a falling 4-week average) both point toward a slower reporting pace than 2025, which itself only cleared 9,000 in its provisional week-52 snapshot by about 282 cases — a thin margin that a modestly slower 2026 pace could erase. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case does not require TB transmission to actually fall below 9,000 cases in reality — it only requires that the provisional NNDSS count available at the January 8, 2027 resolution moment (the only data source realistically available, since CDC's finalized annual report lags into the following fall) continue tracking ~30% behind 2025's pace, given 2025's own provisional week-52 cumulative barely cleared 9,000 (9,282) before later upward revision to 10,260. NOT FOUND: No official NNDSS cumulative count for any 2026 week after week 12 (March 28) could be fetched directly from a primary CDC PDF (only a secondary tracker's summary of the week-ending-September-7 data was available); the full Kalshi rulebook detailing exact "Source Agency" prioritization language for this specific contract could not be located.