Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 500k

- [2025-10-11] CDC NNDSS provisional weekly table for week 41 shows Gonorrhea (Week 26) Weekly cases of notifiable diseases, United States, U.S. Territories, and Non-U.S. Residents -style report confirms cumulative-to-date comparisons: cumulative 2025 gonorrhea cases through week 41 (ending Oct 11, 2025) were 322,965, versus 432,339 for the same period in 2024 — a roughly 25% year-on-year decline in reported pace. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/249763/cdc_249763_DS1.pdf) - [2026-01-10] CDC NNDSS Week 1 2026 table: cumulative YTD 2026 gonorrhea cases = 3,425 vs cumulative YTD 2025 = 7,701 for the same week — 2026 tracking well below 2025's already-reduced pace. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251548/cdc_251548_DS1.pdf) - [2026-01-24] CDC NNDSS Week 3 2026 table: cumulative YTD 2026 = 17,081 vs cumulative YTD 2025 = 28,179 — a roughly 39% shortfall versus the same point in 2025. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/252175/cdc_252175_DS1.pdf) - [2026-02-21] CDC NNDSS Week 7 2026 table: cumulative YTD 2026 = 44,977 vs cumulative YTD 2025 = 65,327 — 2026 running about 31% below 2025's pace. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/252898/cdc_252898_DS1.pdf) - [2026-03-28] CDC NNDSS Week 12 2026 table (most recent nationally-aggregated figure located): cumulative YTD 2026 gonorrhea cases = 81,432 (total, all residents/territories) vs cumulative YTD 2025 = 117,410 for the same week — roughly a 31% year-over-year decline persisting through Q1 2026. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254934/cdc_254934_DS2.txt) - [2025-09-24] CDC's provisional 2024 STI Surveillance report (released Sept. 24, 2025) found "Gonorrhea dropped 10%, the third consecutive year of decline." (https://www.healthbeat.org/2025/10/07/sti-chlamydia-gonorrhea-syphilis-cdc-data/) - [2025-09-24 approx.] CDC's official STI statistics page states the agency postponed the reconciliation and publication of 2024 NNDSS case surveillance data to allow state health departments and CDC more time to onboard to the One CDC Data Platform (1CDP) , and expects the 2024 STI data to be finalized in 2026 , indicating ongoing data-pipeline disruption that is also likely affecting 2025/2026 weekly reporting completeness. (https://cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html) - [no exact date, 2024 report] CDC/ASHA summary confirms the multi-year gonorrhea decline trend: "The number of gonorrhea cases was down 10% since 2023. This was the third year in a row that we saw a decline." (https://www.ashasexualhealth.org/latest-data-shows-that-chlamydia-gonorrhea-and-syphilis-rates-are-dropping/) - Extrapolating the Week-12 2026 cumulative (81,432) at a roughly linear weekly rate for the remaining 40 weeks of the year implies a full-year 2026 total in the rough range of 290,000–340,000 cases if the observed ~30% YoY decline versus 2025 persists — far below the 500,000 threshold. - By comparison, 2025 itself was already tracking toward well under 500,000 (extrapolating the week-41 cumulative of ~323,000 across 52 weeks implies a full-year 2025 total near 410,000), and 2026 is running meaningfully below even that reduced 2025 pace. - No report found of any CDC change, outbreak, policy shift, or surveillance disruption in the 2026-09 to 2026-10 window that would materially reverse this multi-year downward trajectory before the market's resolution window closes. NOT FOUND: A CDC NNDSS weekly table dated closer to September/October 2026 (most recent located update is week 12, ending March 28, 2026); a finalized/provisional full-year 2025 gonorrhea total figure; any official CDC commentary specifically on 2026 mid-year STI trends. BOTTOM LINE: All available 2026 CDC NNDSS weekly cumulative data (through week 12, ending March 28, 2026) show gonorrhea cases running roughly 30% below the already-declining 2025 pace, consistent with a third/fourth consecutive year of decline; extrapolated full-year 2026 totals land well under 500,000, making the "Above 500k" outcome look unlikely absent a major reversal or large late-reported backdated-case surge not yet visible in the data.

- [2025-09-24] CDC's provisional 2024 STI surveillance report shows in 2024, the combined total number of cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis declined 9% from 2023, down a third consecutive year , with the official provisional gonorrhea total for 2024 at 543,409 cases (Men 341,667 + Women 198,932, 5-yr change -19.8%, 1-yr change -9.6%), per the detailed CDC trend table. https://www.cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html - [2025-09-24] Historical annual gonorrhea totals from the same CDC table: 2020 = 677,769; 2021 = 710,151; 2022 = 648,056; 2023 = 601,319; 2024 (provisional) = 543,409 — i.e., gonorrhea cases exceeded 500,000 in every year from 2020 through 2024, but the margin above the 500k threshold has been shrinking each year. https://www.cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html - [2024-11-12] An independent summary confirms over 2.4 million cases of gonorrhea (601,319 cases), syphilis (209,253), and chlamydia (1,648,568) were reported in 2023 , and that the decline was driven primarily by a drop in gonorrhea cases, which fell by 7.2% from 2022 to 2023 . https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sexually-transmitted-infections/cdc-reports-small-decline-sexually-transmitted-infections - [2025-09-24] CDC also reports that gonorrhea dropped 10%, the third consecutive year of decline in the 2024 provisional release, underscoring a durable multi-year downtrend rather than a one-off blip. https://www.healthbeat.org/2025/10/07/sti-chlamydia-gonorrhea-syphilis-cdc-data/ - [2026-01-03] CDC's NNDSS weekly provisional table for the week ending Jan 3, 2026 (effectively full calendar-year 2025 data) shows cumulative YTD 2025 gonorrhea cases of 441,851, versus a comparator cumulative YTD 2024 figure of 543,253 in the same table — implying full-year 2025 provisional cases were already running roughly 19% below the 2024 total, and below the 500,000 mark. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251429/cdc_251429_DS1.pdf - [2026-03-28] The most recent available NNDSS weekly table (week ending March 28, 2026, Week 12 of 2026) shows cumulative YTD 2026 gonorrhea cases of 81,349, versus the same period in 2025 at 117,283 — a roughly 31% year-over-year decline in early-2026 cumulative case counts, suggesting the downward trend has not reversed and may even be accelerating. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254934/cdc_254934_DS1.pdf - [2025-12-06] Week 49 (Dec 6, 2025) NNDSS data showed cumulative YTD 2025 gonorrhea cases at 407,405 versus a 2024 comparator of 514,871 in the same report, consistent with continued decline; final-week revisions later brought the 2025 provisional total up to 441,851 (per the Jan 3, 2026 table), showing some but not dramatic upward revision as late reports are reconciled. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/250870/cdc_250870_DS1.pdf - [2025-09-24] CDC explicitly cautions that the 2024 data are provisional because NNDSS migrated systems, and that "CDC expects the 2024 STI data to be finalized in 2026," with case counts likely to "change slightly" upon finalization — meaning official 2024 (and by extension 2025/2026) counts could be revised modestly upward from current provisional figures. https://www.cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html - [2024-11-12] Earlier-decade context: a CDC-sourced Wikipedia summary notes that gonorrhea cases were far lower historically — 301,174 in 2009 — before by 2020, there were more than twice as many cases reported, about 678,000, a 45% rise relative to an intervening low, illustrating that the >500k regime is a relatively recent (post-2017) phenomenon, not a permanent fixture. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_the_United_States NOT FOUND: No official CDC "2025 STI Surveillance" annual report (finalized or provisional) has yet been published (as of the search date), so there is no CDC-certified full-year 2025 total to anchor a direct one-year-ahead projection for 2026; only internal NNDSS weekly provisional tallies are available. Also found no betting-market or expert-forecast commentary specifically estimating 2026 gonorrhea case totals. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class (CDC-reported annual gonorrhea cases) exceeded 500,000 every year from 2020–2024, but provisional NNDSS data show a clear, multi-year accelerating decline — full-year 2025 provisional cases (~442,000) were already below 500,000, and early 2026 weekly data show an even steeper (~31%) year-over-year drop versus 2025 — making a reversal back above 500,000 for 2026 a historically-unusual, trend-breaking outcome rather than the base-rate expectation.

YES means: CDC's National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) reports/reconciles a total of more than 500,000 gonorrhea cases for calendar year 2026, counted as of 10:00 AM ET on the January 8, 2027 Expiration Date (including any case reports backdated to 2026 that arrive between now and then). - [2026-01-03] The week-53 NNDSS table (effectively covering all of calendar 2025) shows cumulative 2025 gonorrhea cases at 441,851 — but this was a sharp jump from the 407,405 reported just four weeks earlier in the week-49 (Dec 6, 2025) table, a roughly 8.5% increase in under a month purely from late/backdated reporting catching up. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251429/cdc_251429_DS1.pdf - [2026-01-03] The same week-53 table's 2024 comparator column reads 543,253, while the CDC's separately published provisional 2024 STI Surveillance annual report lists 2024 gonorrhea cases as 543,409 — a small but real discrepancy confirming that even "final" NNDSS weekly-table comparator figures keep shifting after the fact as records reconcile. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251429/cdc_251429_DS1.pdf - [2025-09-24] CDC has explicitly stated it postponed reconciliation of 2024 NNDSS case data because of the migration to the One CDC Data Platform (1CDP), and that it expects 2024 STI data to be finalized only in 2026 — meaning the official "Source Agency" annual figures for 2024 (and by extension the pipeline that will eventually certify 2026) are still unsettled and subject to upward revision as states finish onboarding. https://www.cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html - [2026-09-28] A live CDC data.gov catalog entry for an NNDSS gonorrhea-adjacent table carries an active data-quality notice that, "due to data processing issues at CDC, data for the following jurisdictions may be incomplete for week 7," naming 17 states/territories (including California, Florida, New York City, and Pennsylvania) — large population centers whose cases may be undercounted in the running weekly cumulative and could be added back later, inflating the 2026 total above what current tallies suggest. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nndss-table-1m-gonorrhea-to-haemophilus-influenzae-invasive-disease-age-5-years-serotype-b-9fc83 - [2026-03-28] Even with this backdating/undercount risk, the week-12 2026 table shows cumulative YTD gonorrhea at 81,349 against 117,283 for the same point in 2025 — so any upward reconciliation would need to be very large (on the order of 50%+ added back) to push the 2026 total materially toward, let alone above, 500,000. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/254934/cdc_254934_DS1.pdf - [2024-11-12 reference] The reference class is not trivial to dismiss: gonorrhea cases exceeded 500,000 every year from 2020 to 2024, so a YES outcome would not require an unprecedented case count in absolute historical terms — only a reversion to a level seen as recently as 2024 (543,409 cases), which is only about 20% above the current provisional 2025 total of 441,851. https://www.cdc.gov/sti-statistics/annual/index.html - [2026-07-04] A CDC Stacks catalog listing confirms a week-26 2026 (week ending July 4, 2026) gonorrhea weekly table exists and was published, indicating NNDSS reporting infrastructure is continuing to generate mid-2026 cumulative data, which — if a sizeable backlog of unresolved/backdated cases from the 1CDP transition surfaces before the January 8, 2027 lock-in — could still revise the 2026 cumulative upward from what earlier-year weekly snapshots imply. https://stacks.cdc.gov/cbrowse?parentId=cdc%3A49375 BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to YES is not a reversal of the underlying disease trend but a data-reporting mechanism: NNDSS weekly cumulative counts are provisional and have historically been revised upward by several percent as states finish reconciliation (as seen in the 407,405→441,851 jump for 2025 between early December 2025 and January 2026), compounded by an acknowledged, still-unresolved CDC data-migration backlog (1CDP) and documented week-7 2026 jurisdictional reporting gaps in large states; if a substantial volume of backdated 2026 cases is still outstanding and gets filed/reconciled before the January 8, 2027 cutoff, the final count could land meaningfully higher than the roughly 30%-below-2025-pace trajectory visible in weekly tables through Q2 2026. NOT FOUND: No NNDSS weekly table dated later than week 26 (ending July 4, 2026) with a visible gonorrhea cumulative figure was retrievable via search/fetch in this session; no official statement quantifying the size of the still-unreconciled 1CDP backlog for 2025/2026 STI case counts; no CDC communication suggesting an active outbreak or surveillance change that would organically drive new gonorrhea incidence back above the 2024 level.

YES means: the final 2026 gonorrhea case count reported for the United States, as determined under the market's Source Agency hierarchy at 10:00 AM ET on January 8, 2027, is above 500,000. This dimension argues for NO (the count remains ≤500,000, consistent with the multi-year decline and reporting lags). - [2026-05-14] CDC's own "Notice to Data Users" page confirms the 2026 NNDSS weekly tables carry revised case-definition and publication-criteria changes (e.g., for syphilis, COVID-19-associated pediatric mortality, Oropouche), but lists **no new gonorrhea case-definition or counting-rule change for 2026**, indicating no technical driver that would artificially inflate the 2026 gonorrhea count relative to the already-declining 2025 baseline. (https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/infectious-disease/notice-to-data-users.html) - [2025-09-27] A newly-identified NNDSS Week 39 2025 table shows cumulative YTD 2025 gonorrhea cases of 325,919 versus 409,358 for the same point in 2024 — confirming the ~20% YoY decline persisted through three full quarters of 2025, not just in a short early-year window, strengthening the case that the downtrend is structural rather than a Q1 reporting artifact. (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/249028/cdc_249028_DS1.pdf) - [2025-09-24] CDC's STI statistics page states the 2024 NNDSS gonorrhea data remain provisional and that the agency "has postponed the reconciliation and publication of 2024 NNDSS case surveillance data to allow state health departments and CDC more time to onboard to 1CDP," and "expects the 2024 STI data to be finalized in 2026." This means the pipeline that must produce the "final" 2026 figure by the January 8, 2027 resolution date is itself still mid-migration and historically prone to backlog, favoring under-, not over-, counting at any fixed snapshot date. - [2026-09-28] The current (continuously-updated) NNDSS gonorrhea data-catalog listing for the official weekly table was last substantively updated September 10, 2026, with the live dataset carrying boilerplate language noting that "cases reported by state health departments to CDC for weekly publication are provisional because of the time needed to complete case follow-up," and that jurisdictions can be marked unavailable or incomplete for given weeks — a documented structural mechanism (also seen in 2020 and 2021 errata for the same table) by which real-time counts can run below the eventual truth for months, meaning any snapshot used for a January 2027 resolution is likely to still be missing late reports from some states. (https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nndss-table-1m-gonorrhea-to-haemophilus-influenzae-invasive-disease-age-5-years-serotype-b-9fc83) - [no new date found for week 13–39 of 2026] No CDC NNDSS weekly table beyond Week 12 (ending March 28, 2026) could be located in public search results, despite the live dataset showing a September 2026 "last updated" timestamp — consistent with the general multi-month lag in CDC's public weekly-table publication pipeline, which itself works against any late-breaking case surge being visible or counted before the market's resolution snapshot. - [2026-01-03] Even after the full late-reporting reconciliation window closed for calendar 2025 (captured in the colleague-reported Jan 3, 2026 table), the final 2025 provisional total (441,851) remained roughly 58,000 below the 500,000 threshold and about 101,000 below the 2024 total — demonstrating that even with several weeks of backdated-case catch-up, provisional-to-near-final revision has not been large enough in the recent historical record to push a sub-450k year over the 500k line. - [status-quo mechanism] Because the Kalshi rules specify that only cases "reported" and "backdated to 2026" by the Expiration Date count, and because NNDSS's own documented historical pattern (per the notice-to-data-users errata log) is of incremental, modest upward revisions over weeks-to-months rather than sudden multi-hundred-thousand-case jumps, there is no identified mechanism by which a ~30% year-to-date shortfall (per Week 12 2026 data) closes to flip the full-year total from the ~290–340k extrapolated range up past 500,000. - [2024-11-12 reference] Historical context confirms the >500k regime began only recently (2017 onward) after a much lower base in the 2000s–2010s (Gonorrhea: Week 37 2024 table and related historical CDC data cited elsewhere show the current elevated case-count era is a post-2017 phenomenon) , underscoring that the current multi-year decline is reverting toward a lower historical norm rather than representing a transient dip likely to snap back within a single year. BOTTOM LINE: Every available data point — including a newly-found Week 39 2025 table showing the decline held through three quarters of last year, the CDC's own acknowledgment of an unfinished 1CDP data-migration/reconciliation process, and the historical pattern of only modest provisional-to-final upward revisions — supports continuation of the status quo: a sub-500,000 gonorrhea count for 2026, resolving NO, absent an unprecedented reporting reversal that no source currently evidences. NOT FOUND: Any CDC NNDSS weekly gonorrhea table for 2026 weeks 13 through 39 (i.e., April–September 2026) despite the underlying dataset showing a September 10, 2026 "last updated" timestamp; any finalized 2025 annual STI Surveillance report; any CDC commentary specifically flagging a 2026 gonorrhea resurgence or outbreak.