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Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

polymarketScience and Technology·2026-10-01·view on polymarket ↗
13%
Agent
28%
Market Price
-14.5%
Edge
66%
Confidence
77,978
Volume
1.0c
Spread
456
Days to resolution
4
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.10, 0.10, 0.12, 0.16, 0.17). (0) Resolution check: no source shows the condition met. Missouri has no statewide statutory moratorium, the 2026 session produced zero moratorium bills (Programs.com tracker: "None"), and every enacted pause is local (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which the rules exclude. (a) About 15 months remain. In practice the window is one regular session (Jan 6–May 14, 2027) plus a September 2027 veto session. A citizen initiative would almost certainly not reach a statewide ballot before November 2028. (b) The status quo is No: no bill is pending, and the September 2026 House hearing was cancelled. (c) NO scenario: 2027 bills center on tariffs and rate classes (the Future Caucus agenda), committee chairs with data-center projects in their districts block votes as Farnan did in 2026, and Gov. Kehoe, who refused a special session and favors local control, would veto anything that slipped through. (d) YES scenario: rising voter backlash (Capitol rally, ousted local officials, midterm salience) and the 16-20 GOP members who sought a special session push a Byrnes-style hyperscale pause through both chambers. Kehoe then either signs it or is overridden, or a 'no approval absent county vote' bill technically qualifies as prohibition-by-default. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory moratorium (NY's was an executive order and Maine's was vetoed), so the base rate is low. The market's 27.5% (down from 44.5%) appears to still price in national momentum (Texas, Michigan rhetoric) more than Missouri's institutional barriers justify. I shade well below it, keeping some weight on fast-moving politics and on a loose bill qualifying technically.
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
17 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Polymarket question, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor, and resolution_source should point to Missouri legislature bill tracking. Related markets on data center moratoriums in other states give cross-venue signals. One targeted search for Missouri moratorium bill filings, since the 2027 session prefiling starts December 2026.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 27.50% (live; bid 27% / ask 28%) - 7-day price change: -17.00% - 30-day price change: -17.00% - Total volume: $77,978 (USD notional) - Price range: 27.50% - 44.50% - Data points: 3 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are a list of Missouri House bills (103rd General Assembly, 2nd Regular Session) and a generic Missouri Senate homepage navigation menu. No bill titles reference a data center moratorium, and no enacted law or constitutional provision establishing such a moratorium is shown. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 12 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'Missouri data center': 2 markets - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok - article_search: Fetched 10 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Missouri bill data center moratorium filed legislature': 8 articles | 'Missouri data center moratorium prefiled 2027 session': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: As of October 2026, Missouri has enacted no statewide data center moratorium and no such bill has even reached a floor vote; the 2026 session ended with multiple data-center bills (none a blanket moratorium) dying without hearings, a planned September House hearing was cancelled, and legislators/advocates are now aiming only at the January 2027 session for a renewed (non-moratorium) regulatory push, with Gov. Kehoe publicly opposed to state-imposed restrictions — all local moratoriums enacted so - base rate: Across the entire US in 2026, dozens of statewide data-center moratorium bills have been introduced but none has been enacted as binding statute (only New York's non-statutory executive order and local/county-level pauses exist, and Maine's statutory moratorium was vetoed); Missouri's own 2026 session saw multiple regulatory and moratorium-adjacent bills die without a floor vote, and its pro-development governor has given no indication of support. This outside-view base rate — essentially 0 of m - yes case: The strongest realistic YES path is a Speaker-sanctioned Special Committee process (convened Sept. 16, 2026) that could produce a prefiled bill by December 2026, pushed by a documented coalition of 16+ House Republicans who already asked for a special session, with at least one sitting GOP legislator on record explicitly backing a statewide moratorium — giving a plausible, if still uncertain, legislative or initiative-petition mechanism to reach enactment before the 2027 regular session ends in - no case: Every concrete, dated signal — Kehoe's refusal of a special session and his public opposition to state-imposed restrictions, a committee chair's self-interested blocking of hearings, a cancelled September hearing, a 2027 legislative agenda explicitly centered on rate reform rather than moratorium, and no statewide ballot-initiative mechanism underway — points to continued status-quo inertia, making enactment of a statewide moratorium by December 31, 2027 unlikely.
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
polymarket_direct OK 0.3s 1 ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 27.50% (live; bid 27% / ask 28%) - 7-day price change: -17.00% - 30-day price change: -17.00% - Total volume: $77,978 (USD notional) - Price range: 27.50% - 44.50%
resolution_source OK 4.2s 1 already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are a list of Missouri House bills (103rd General Assembly, 2nd Regular Session) and a generic Missouri Senate homepage navigation menu. No bill titles reference a data center moratorium, and no enacted law or
polymarket_related OK 0.6s 12 Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 12 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'Missouri data center': 2 markets
kalshi_related OK 0.6s 1 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
article_search OK 0.4s 10 Fetched 10 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Missouri bill data center moratorium filed legislature': 8 articles | 'Missouri data center moratorium prefiled 2027 session': 8 articles
research loops · 4/4 ok · 14 searches · 7 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 25s 2 2 5196 chars
base rate OK 30s 3 2 5691 chars
yes case OK 38s 5 1 5412 chars
no case OK 36s 4 2 5654 chars
report: current state
- [2026-06-05] Rep. Mike Costlow said his bill and others regulating data centers failed to get a vote in the Missouri legislative session that ended May 15, 2026. None of the state-level bills addressed a statewide moratorium; they focused on water/electricity tariffs, transparency, and permitting. https://missouriindependent.com/2026/06/05/theyre-already-here-regulating-data-centers-stalls-in-missouri/ - [2026-06-05 reporting] Missouri's 2026 session produced House Bills 3362 and 3364, aimed primarily at utility regulation and customer protection, which never made it to the House floor for debate , and no bill established a statewide construction moratorium. https://missouriindependent.com/2026/06/05/theyre-already-here-regulating-data-centers-stalls-in-missouri/ - [2026-05-15] HB3390 ("Hyperscale Data Center Siting Board" bill, not a moratorium) was introduced 02/24/2026, reached committee, and died 05/15/2026 without passage. https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1978449 - [2026-08-11] Missouri lawmakers pledged a new push for data center and AI guardrails in 2027 , with Future Caucus members saying they will reintroduce regulatory legislation next session; none of the members who appeared openly backed a call for a special legislative session on data centers . https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2026/08/11/missouri-data-center-reform - [2026-09-16] Around 200 people crowded inside the Missouri Capitol rotunda demanding a statewide moratorium on hyperscale data center construction, while the legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill only getting a House hearing last year. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-09-16] A scheduled House hearing on data centers, timed to coincide with the rally and veto session, was supposed to be the same day as a House hearing on data centers, but that hearing was cancelled. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-09-17] It is unclear if lawmakers will address data centers when the 2027 session convenes in January. https://www.kbia.org/missouri-news/2026-09-17/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-09-17] Gov. Mike Kehoe has continued to signal opposition to a statewide approach: "It's got to be right for the community... You don't want the state forcing them to look at something," Gov. Mike Kehoe said. https://krcgtv.com/news/local/surge-in-data-center-projects-statewide-spurs-controversy - [2026-09-17] Protesters/organizers acknowledged timing constraints: lawmakers won't return for their next legislative session until January; however, members of the Missouri Legislature can prefile legislation beginning in December. https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/protesters-seek-moratorium-on-data-centers-during-rally-at-mo-capitol/ - [2026-08-11] Rep. Collin Wellenkamp said his "AI Infrastructure, Grid Integrity and Water Resources Protection Act" came too late in last year's session to get traction and would return again in 2027 — this bill is a regulatory framework, not a blanket moratorium. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2026/08/11/missouri-data-center-reform - [2026, ongoing] All enacted moratoriums to date are local, not statewide: e.g. St. Charles (permanent ban, May 2026), Jackson County (180-day pause, June 2026), Columbia (one-year pause to April 2027), and others — none meet the statewide threshold required by this market. https://www.kctv5.com/2026/06/22/jackson-county-legislature-passes-180-day-moratorium-data-center-applications/ ; https://krcgtv.com/news/local/surge-in-data-center-projects-statewide-spurs-controversy - [August 2026 tracker] A national policy tracker shows a statewide Missouri measure requiring electric suppliers to keep separate tariffs for new data-center loads of 75 MW or more, effective July 1, 2026 — this is a rate/tariff rule, not a moratorium, and would not satisfy the market's resolution criteria. https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2026, Missouri has enacted no statewide data center moratorium and no such bill has even reached a floor vote; the 2026 session ended with multiple data-center bills (none a blanket moratorium) dying without hearings, a planned September House hearing was cancelled, and legislators/advocates are now aiming only at the January 2027 session for a renewed (non-moratorium) regulatory push, with Gov. Kehoe publicly opposed to state-imposed restrictions — all local moratoriums enacted so far (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia) are sub-state and would not qualify. NOT FOUND: No prefiled or pending bill for the 2027 session explicitly proposing a statewide moratorium (as opposed to regulatory/tariff measures) was found; no statement from Gov. Kehoe's office or legislative leadership committing to a 2027 moratorium vote; no ballot-initiative/referendum effort for a statewide moratorium was identified in the search results.
report: base rate
- [2026-09-16] Roughly 200 protesters rallied at the Missouri Capitol during the veto session demanding a statewide data center construction moratorium; the legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill on the topic only getting a House hearing last year , and a planned House hearing that day was cancelled. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-06-05] State Rep. Mike Costlow said "legislation traditionally lags very far behind technology," and his bill and others regulating data centers failed to get a vote in the Missouri legislative session that ended May 15 , 2026. https://missouriindependent.com/2026/06/05/theyre-already-here-regulating-data-centers-stalls-in-missouri/ - [2026-08-11] Missouri House Future Caucus members pledged a renewed push on data center/AI regulation (grid cost allocation, new rate class) for the 2027 session, but none of the members openly backed a call for a special legislative session on data centers like another group of House members urged earlier that summer ; no moratorium bill was centered in this push. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2026/08/11/missouri-data-center-reform - [2026-09-??] A Missouri "Hyperscale Data Center Siting Board" bill (HB3390) that would have created a state siting board (not a moratorium) was introduced Feb. 24, 2026 and died May 15, 2026 without passage. https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1978449 - [2026-08-??, updated] A nationwide tracker (dcmap.us) lists 22 active statewide data-center policy actions across 25 states as of August 2026 (moratoriums, legislation, executive pauses) — Missouri's only listed statewide-level action is an unrelated 1-count entry that on inspection is actually a local ordinance (St. Charles), confirming Missouri has zero statewide legislative or executive moratorium enacted to date. https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-05-19] The only Missouri-specific "moratorium-style" policy action recorded nationally is local: St. Charles City Council passed Bill 14085 permanently banning data centers in the city, replacing a 2025 one-year moratorium — a purely municipal action, not statewide. https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-06-22] Jackson County, Missouri (local government) passed a 180-day moratorium on data center and battery storage land-use applications — again local, not statewide, and explicitly excluded from this market's qualifying definition. https://www.kctv5.com/2026/06/22/jackson-county-legislature-passes-180-day-moratorium-data-center-applications/ - [2026-02-??] National base-rate context: state-level moratorium bills have been introduced in 11 states in 2026 but face resistance; meanwhile, dozens of municipalities have moved ahead with local construction pauses , indicating state legislatures nationally have a low hit-rate on full statewide moratoria relative to bill introductions. https://www.multistate.us/resources/state-data-center-policy-101 - [2026-07-14] The only US state so far to impose anything resembling a statewide moratorium is New York, and even that was via gubernatorial executive order (EO 62, pausing permits ≥50MW), not a statute — which under this market's rules for Missouri would NOT qualify as "enactment" (executive orders are explicitly excluded). https://www.sheppard.com/insights/blogs/new-york-enacts-first-in-the-nation-statewide-data-center-moratorium - [2026-04-24] Maine's legislature passed a genuine statutory one-year moratorium (LD 307), the closest analog to a true statewide legislative moratorium, but it was vetoed by Governor Mills and not enacted — illustrating that even where a state legislature acts, gubernatorial veto has blocked enactment in the leading precedent case. https://www.rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/ - [2027 session] Missouri's 2027 regular session runs January 6 to May 14, 2027 Session Dates: 1/6/27... Intro Deadlines: 5/14/27 , with bill prefiling from December 1, 2026 — giving one full legislative cycle before the market's December 31, 2027 deadline, plus a possible September 2027 veto session. - [general] Missouri's Republican Governor Mike Kehoe has consistently championed data center development as an economic driver and has not signaled support for any moratorium, reducing the odds a moratorium bill would survive a gubernatorial signature even if passed by the GOP-controlled legislature. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium BOTTOM LINE: Across the entire US in 2026, dozens of statewide data-center moratorium bills have been introduced but none has been enacted as binding statute (only New York's non-statutory executive order and local/county-level pauses exist, and Maine's statutory moratorium was vetoed); Missouri's own 2026 session saw multiple regulatory and moratorium-adjacent bills die without a floor vote, and its pro-development governor has given no indication of support. This outside-view base rate — essentially 0 of many state attempts succeeding as enacted statutory moratoria nationally, and Missouri specifically failing even to get a bill out of committee — implies a low likelihood of statutory enactment in Missouri by the end of 2027. NOT FOUND: No Missouri-specific statewide moratorium bill that has passed either chamber; no polling or betting-market history specific to Missouri legislation on this topic; no official Missouri legislative tracker confirmation of a prefiled 2027 moratorium bill as of this search.
report: yes case
YES means: Missouri's General Assembly passes, and the measure becomes law (by gubernatorial signature, veto override, or law-without-signature), a statewide statutory or constitutional provision that by default prohibits approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation of all new data centers (or of a 100MW+ subset) — or voters approve such a measure via initiative/referendum — before December 31, 2027. - [2026-06-18] A sitting Republican state representative, Tricia Byrnes, speaking at a Jefferson City data-center forum, is "calling for a statewide moratorium on future hyperscale projects until concerns can be addressed by local communities," showing that explicit statewide-moratorium advocacy exists inside the GOP caucus, not just among outside protesters. https://www.ky3.com/2026/06/17/protesters-rally-against-data-centers-missouri-officials-meet-discuss-projects/ - [2026-06-24] House Speaker Jon Patterson approved convening a Special Committee on Intergovernmental Affairs for Sept. 16, 2026, explicitly to study data-center legislation before year's end, giving Byrnes's "People Before Powerful Interests Act" a formal, Speaker-sanctioned vehicle rather than a backbench bill. https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/jun/24/missouri-lawmakers-will-look-into-data-center/ - [2026-06-23] A coalition of at least 16 House Republicans, led by Rep. Don Mayhew, formally petitioned Gov. Kehoe to call a special session specifically on data centers, indicating cross-factional GOP urgency that could accelerate action ahead of the normal 2027 calendar rather than waiting for a slow committee process. https://fox4kc.com/news/coalition-of-state-representatives-urge-kehoe-to-call-special-session-over-data-centers/ - [2026-06-05] The Missouri Coalition for the Environment's session recap confirms the 2026 push already produced six distinct data-center bills across both parties and both chambers, showing broad-based legislative infrastructure (sponsors, drafts, committee familiarity) ready to be refiled quickly for 2027 rather than starting from scratch. https://moenvironment.org/blog/missouri-2026-legislative-session-in-review/ - [2026-09-16] At the Capitol rally, organizer Gabe Cotton invoked the precedent that Festus voters had already ousted pro-data-center council members, explicitly framing the statewide moratorium push as backed by demonstrated electoral consequences for officials who resist — a mechanism that increases pressure on legislators facing 2027 primaries. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-09] Missouri's constitution provides a citizen initiative-petition process (per the Secretary of State's guide) by which a statutory or constitutional moratorium could reach the ballot independent of the Governor or legislature, and Missouri voters just approved the Nov. 2026 "Respect Missouri Voters" measure strengthening the durability of voter-passed initiatives — a favorable environment if a moratorium initiative petition were filed for the 2028 cycle (though no such statewide petition has yet been filed, this is a legally available path that bypasses Gov. Kehoe entirely). https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elections/Petitions/MakeYourVoiceHeard_02.07.2025.pdf ; https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-03/respect-missouri-voters-initiative-petitions - [2026, local precedent] At least nine local Missouri jurisdictions (St. Charles city and county, Jackson County, Columbia, among others per a national tracker) have already enacted moratoriums or bans, demonstrating that the "mandatory, by-default-prohibited" legal template the market requires is already drafted, tested, and politically popular at sub-state levels in Missouri — a template legislators could lift directly into a statewide bill for 2027. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-09-16/17] Reporting notes that House Speaker Patterson's committee process and Byrnes's bill specifically target "countywide voter approval requirements" and disclosure mandates for incentive-receiving projects — a structure that, if amended during the 2027 session to default to "no approval absent a vote," could satisfy the market's "prohibited by default... until a specified condition is satisfied" clause without needing an outright ban, lowering the bar for a technical YES. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest realistic YES path is a Speaker-sanctioned Special Committee process (convened Sept. 16, 2026) that could produce a prefiled bill by December 2026, pushed by a documented coalition of 16+ House Republicans who already asked for a special session, with at least one sitting GOP legislator on record explicitly backing a statewide moratorium — giving a plausible, if still uncertain, legislative or initiative-petition mechanism to reach enactment before the 2027 regular session ends in May 2027. NOT FOUND: No bill text for 2027 session yet exists (Byrnes's bill details remain unrevealed as of the cancelled Sept. 16 hearing); no confirmation the Special Committee met or produced findings/report after Sept. 16, 2026; no filed Missouri statewide initiative petition for a data-center moratorium (2026 or 2028 cycle); no statement from Gov. Kehoe suggesting he would sign rather than veto any statewide moratorium bill.
report: no case
YES means: Missouri enacts a statewide law or constitutional provision establishing a binding moratorium on new data centers (meeting the ≥100MW/all-new-facility threshold) between September 29, 2026 and December 31, 2027, via legislative enactment or statewide referendum/initiative vote. - [2026-06-27] Gov. Kehoe's office explicitly declined a special session on data centers, instead telling lawmakers the issue would be "worked with" only in the 2027 regular session, despite a formal letter from roughly 20 House Republicans demanding immediate action — confirming the Governor is actively deferring, not accelerating, any statewide measure. https://www.krmsradio.com/governor-kehoe-will-not-call-for-special-session-on-data-centers/ - [2026-06-27] Rep. Don Mayhew warned that waiting for the regular session "will be too late for any substantial measures to be put in place" because data-center agreements would be finalized before the legislature reconvenes — an admission from a pro-regulation Republican that the 2027 session timeline itself works against enactment. https://www.krmsradio.com/governor-kehoe-will-not-call-for-special-session-on-data-centers/ - [2026-05/07] The 2026 session's only two data-center bills to reach committee (HB 3362, HB 3364) were killed procedurally: Chairman Jeff Farnan, whose own district is courting a $4 billion data-center project, "refused to put them up for a committee vote," a concrete conflict-of-interest mechanism likely to recur in 2027 given the project pipeline. https://moenvironment.org/blog/missouri-2026-legislative-session-in-review/ - [2026, tracker] An independent national tracker (Programs.com) lists Missouri's "Statewide moratorium bills (2025–26)" count as "None," confirming that even among the six data-center bills introduced in 2026, zero were moratorium bills — regulatory/tariff bills, not moratoria, are the only state-level product to date. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-08-11] The House Future Caucus's 2027 agenda, previewed by members including Rep. Wellenkamp, centers on cost-allocation/rate-class reforms for large-load customers, not a construction moratorium, indicating the most organized legislative push for 2027 is explicitly non-moratorium in design. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2026/08/11/missouri-data-center-reform - [2026-09-16/17] Multiple outlets reporting on the September 16 Capitol rally independently stress that "it is unclear if lawmakers will address data centers" in the 2027 session at all, and that a House hearing meant to precede action was itself cancelled the same day — showing institutional momentum is stalling rather than building toward any 2027 floor vote. https://www.kbia.org/missouri-news/2026-09-17/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium - [2026-09-17] Gov. Kehoe reiterated local-control framing at the rally's time, saying decisions on data centers should be made at the community level and that "you don't want the state forcing them to look at something" — a sitting Republican governor's standing position that would require him to sign any moratorium bill the GOP legislature might somehow pass. https://krcgtv.com/news/local/surge-in-data-center-projects-statewide-spurs-controversy - [2026, ongoing] Local-level activity (Columbia's pause to April 2027, Joplin's referendum/initiative petition drive requiring only 6,000 signatures, Ralls County, Oak Grove, Palmyra moratoria) shows that opposition energy is being fully absorbed into municipal and county channels rather than coalescing into a single statewide ballot campaign, reducing the odds of a competing statewide initiative petition reaching the ballot before late 2027. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/joplin-group-plans-fight-data-233100296.html - [general] No statewide ballot initiative or constitutional-amendment petition drive targeting a Missouri data-center moratorium was identified in any search; Missouri's initiative-petition process requires signature gathering, Secretary of State certification, and placement on a 2027 special or 2028 general ballot — a mechanism that, even if launched today, is logistically very unlikely to produce a certified "Yes" statewide vote before December 31, 2027. - [procedural] Under Missouri's biennial calendar, the entire remaining window consists of one regular session (Jan 6–May 14, 2027) plus a September 2027 veto session; given that in the prior (2026) cycle not a single data-center bill escaped committee despite six being filed and extensive hearings, the structural "funnel" (committee referral, hearing, floor calendar, Senate concurrence, gubernatorial signature) has a demonstrated 0-for-6 failure rate on far weaker (non-moratorium) bills within one cycle. BOTTOM LINE: Every concrete, dated signal — Kehoe's refusal of a special session and his public opposition to state-imposed restrictions, a committee chair's self-interested blocking of hearings, a cancelled September hearing, a 2027 legislative agenda explicitly centered on rate reform rather than moratorium, and no statewide ballot-initiative mechanism underway — points to continued status-quo inertia, making enactment of a statewide moratorium by December 31, 2027 unlikely. NOT FOUND: No prefiled 2027 bill text (prefiling opens December 1, 2026) explicitly proposing a statewide moratorium; no statewide ballot-initiative petition for a data-center moratorium that has been certified or is actively collecting signatures; no evidence any Republican supermajority leadership has committed floor time to such a measure.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
Yes 10%
No 90%
(0) Resolution check: no source shows the condition met. Missouri has no statewide statutory moratorium, the 2026 session produced zero moratorium bills (Programs.com tracker: "None"), and every enacted pause is local (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which the rules exclude. (a) About 15 months remain. In practice the window is one regular session (Jan 6–May 14, 2027) plus a September 2027 veto session. A citizen initiative would almost certainly not reach a statewide ballot before November 2028. (b) The status quo is No: no bill is pending, and the September 2026 House hearing was cancelled. (c) NO scenario: 2027 bills center on tariffs and rate classes (the Future Caucus agenda), committee chairs with data-center projects in their districts block votes as Farnan did in 2026, and Gov. Kehoe, who refused a special session and favors local control, would veto anything that slipped through. (d) YES scenario: rising voter backlash (Capitol rally, ousted local officials, midterm salience) and the 16-20 GOP members who sought a special session push a Byrnes-style hyperscale pause through both chambers. Kehoe then either signs it or is overridden, or a 'no approval absent county vote' bill technically qualifies as prohibition-by-default. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory moratorium (NY's was an executive order and Maine's was vetoed), so the base rate is low. The market's 27.5% (down from 44.5%) appears to still price in national momentum (Texas, Michigan rhetoric) more than Missouri's institutional barriers justify. I shade well below it, keeping some weight on fast-moving politics and on a loose bill qualifying technically.
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
Yes 10%
No 90%
(0) Resolution check: nothing is met yet. The resolution-source read of the Missouri House and Senate pages shows no moratorium bill, and the research confirms only local moratoria so far (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which do not qualify. (a) About 15 months remain. The realistic window is the January 6 to May 14, 2027 regular session plus a September 2027 veto session. An initiative petition would go to the November 2028 ballot, so it is effectively outside the window unless a special election is called. (b) Status quo is No. In 2026 Missouri passed zero data-center bills; committee chair Farnan refused votes, and a September hearing was cancelled. The most organized 2027 agenda, from the Future Caucus, centers on rate and cost-allocation reform, not a moratorium. (c) NO scenario: the 2027 session takes up tariff, transparency or siting bills, or nothing at all. Gov. Kehoe keeps his local-control stance ("you don't want the state forcing them") and his refusal of a special session, and no statute imposing a default prohibition is enacted. (d) YES scenario: data-center backlash intensifies after the midterms. Rep. Byrnes's statewide-moratorium push and the coalition of 16+ House Republicans produce a bill that passes both chambers, and Kehoe signs it or lets it become law, or a voter-approval-by-default structure qualifies. That requires passing a GOP Senate and a hostile governor, and a veto override against him is unlikely. No state has yet enacted a statutory moratorium (Maine's was vetoed; New York's was an executive order). The Polymarket anchor of 27.5% has already fallen 17 points, and I think it still overprices a path with no bill text, no leadership commitment and an opposed governor. I price YES around 10%.
claude-opus-5-5
60% conf
Yes 12%
No 88%
(0) Nothing shows the condition met. The resolution-source read (House bill list, Senate site) shows no moratorium bill, and trackers list Missouri's statewide moratorium bills for 2025–26 as "None." Every enacted Missouri moratorium so far (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia) is local and does not qualify. (a) About 15 months remain. In practice that means the January 6–May 14, 2027 regular session, the September 2027 veto session, or a special session the governor would have to call. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No. In 2026 none of the roughly six data-center bills escaped committee, a committee chair blocked votes, and the planned September 16 House hearing was cancelled. The Future Caucus 2027 agenda centers on rate classes, not a moratorium. Gov. Kehoe refused a special session and publicly favors local control, so even a passed bill likely faces a veto or needs a two-thirds override. A citizen initiative realistically cannot reach a statewide ballot before 2028. (c) NO scenario: in the 2027 session lawmakers pass tariff, transparency or siting rules, or nothing at all, and no default-prohibition moratorium is enacted. (d) YES scenario: post-midterm backlash, with figures like Rep. Byrnes, the 16+ GOP members who sought a special session, and Capitol rallies, pushes through a hyperscale (100MW+) pause. Kehoe signs it or lets it become law, or a county-vote-required-by-default structure qualifies technically. The market sits at 27.5% after falling from 44.5%. Given the concrete obstacles above and no state having yet enacted a statutory moratorium nationally, I fade it to about 12%. I keep some weight on fast-moving national politics and uncertainty over how the rules would treat edge-case bill structures.
gpt-5.6-sol
74% conf
Yes 16%
No 84%
(0) The condition has not already been met: Missouri government pages show no qualifying enactment, while September 2026 reporting says the legislature has not acted and existing Missouri moratoriums are local, so a qualifying statewide statute or constitutional provision must still be enacted by December 31, 2027. (a) About 15 months remain, including the January 6-May 14, 2027 regular session and a possible September veto session, but no qualifying bill or statewide initiative is currently underway. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because tariff rules, incentive changes, regulatory frameworks, executive action, and local moratoriums do not qualify. (c) The central No scenario is that lawmakers pursue rate and disclosure regulation instead, a moratorium stalls as weaker 2026 bills did, and Governor Kehoe maintains his opposition to statewide restrictions. (d) A Yes scenario is that mounting local backlash and the coalition of at least 16 House Republicans produce a prefiled statewide pause covering hyperscale facilities, which passes in 2027 and becomes law despite gubernatorial resistance. I price Yes below Polymarket's 27.5% anchor because the specific evidence shows no bill text, a cancelled hearing, refusal of a special session, organized 2027 efforts focused on non-moratorium regulation, and an exceptionally weak national enactment base rate, while retaining 16% for rapid political movement during the remaining full session.
gpt-5.6-sol
74% conf
Yes 17%
No 83%
(0) The condition has not already been met: Missouri government pages show no qualifying enactment, while September 2026 reporting says the legislature has not enacted a statewide moratorium and all identified Missouri moratoriums are local. (a) About 15 months remain until December 31, 2027, principally covering the January 6–May 14, 2027 regular session and a possible September veto session. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because existing tariff rules, regulatory proposals, and local pauses do not meet the statewide statutory or constitutional requirement. (c) The central No scenario is that lawmakers pursue rate, disclosure, and siting regulation instead, with another bill dying in committee or being vetoed by Gov. Kehoe, who rejected a special session and favors local control. (d) A plausible Yes scenario is that mounting local backlash, explicit support from Rep. Tricia Byrnes, and the coalition of roughly 16–20 House Republicans produce a prefiled 2027 moratorium covering hyperscale facilities, which passes amid bipartisan pressure and becomes law. I price Yes at 17%, below Polymarket's 27.5% anchor, because no qualifying bill or statewide initiative exists, weaker regulatory bills went 0-for-6 in 2026, the planned September hearing was cancelled, and the nationwide statutory-enactment base rate remains extremely low despite growing political salience.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
13% (66% confidence)
Yes: 13% No: 87%
Mean of 5 draws (0.10, 0.10, 0.12, 0.16, 0.17). (0) Resolution check: no source shows the condition met. Missouri has no statewide statutory moratorium, the 2026 session produced zero moratorium bills (Programs.com tracker: "None"), and every enacted pause is local (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which the rules exclude. (a) About 15 months remain. In practice the window is one regular session (Jan 6–May 14, 2027) plus a September 2027 veto session. A citizen initiative would almost certainly not reach a statewide ballot before November 2028. (b) The status quo is No: no bill is pending, and the September 2026 House hearing was cancelled. (c) NO scenario: 2027 bills center on tariffs and rate classes (the Future Caucus agenda), committee chairs with data-center projects in their districts block votes as Farnan did in 2026, and Gov. Kehoe, who refused a special session and favors local control, would veto anything that slipped through. (d) YES scenario: rising voter backlash (Capitol rally, ousted local officials, midterm salience) and the 16-20 GOP members who sought a special session push a Byrnes-style hyperscale pause through both chambers. Kehoe then either signs it or is overridden, or a 'no approval absent county vote' bill technically qualifies as prohibition-by-default. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory moratorium (NY's was an executive order and Maine's was vetoed), so the base rate is low. The market's 27.5% (down from 44.5%) appears to still price in national momentum (Texas, Michigan rhetoric) more than Missouri's institutional barriers justify. I shade well below it, keeping some weight on fast-moving politics and on a loose bill qualifying technically.
5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader
Side
no
Position Size
$700
Contracts
959
Trader Confidence
66%
Trade rationale
The market prices NO as the 72.5% favourite and the forecast puts NO at 87%, so this edge is with the favourite, the type of entry this book has done best on. The gap is a solid 14.5pp. The rationale gives concrete reasons for NO. The 2026 session produced no moratorium bills, the September House hearing was cancelled, and committee chairs blocked votes in 2026. Gov. Kehoe refused a special session and favours local control, and every pause enacted so far is local, which the rules exclude. A news search over the last 30 days found nothing new in Missouri. Activity elsewhere (Texas permit halt, Maryland executive order, local Baltimore and San Francisco pauses) doesn't touch Missouri's institutional barriers, and Kehoe's stance makes a Texas-style executive order unlikely. The ensemble is fairly tight (10-17%, confidence 0.66), and the YES price has already fallen from 44.5% to 27.5%, in our direction.
Allocation logic
I'm sizing below the $1,000 baseline because this overlaps heavily with positions we already hold. We have $1,200 NO on the Missouri June 30, 2027 market, which already covers the whole 2027 regular session. We also hold about $3,600 NO on the Louisiana, Oklahoma, Ohio and Indiana moratorium markets. A shift in national momentum would hit all of these together. The book is deep: $700 fills at 0.73 with no slippage, so liquidity isn't what's holding the size down.
Entry price: $0.73
Current: $0.89
Status: OPEN
P&L: $141.07
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 82.0s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.