Above 20000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 20k

- [2026-01-05] CDC's year-end surveillance snapshot for the prior (2025) season showed 2025 cases acquired in the United States: 1,180, with 105 hospitalizations and no deaths, reported by 37-38 states — the baseline the 2026 season has been compared against. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance - [2026-07-13] CDC issued a Health Alert Network notice stating since May 1, 2026, CDC had received reports of 1,645 confirmed domestic cases of cyclosporiasis and was aware of more than 5,100 cases requiring further analysis , already substantially higher than the 249 cases reported nationally by this same time last year . https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00531.html - [2026-07-16] A large cluster was linked to food: the CDC announced an outbreak associated with consumption of lettuce served at Taco Bell stores in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia that sickened more than 1,644 people . https://doh.wa.gov/you-and-your-family/illness-and-disease-z/foodborne-illness/outbreaks/2026-cyclosporiasis-outbreak - [2026-08-05] CDC's official surveillance page updated to show May 1–August 3, 2026: 10,468 laboratory-confirmed U.S.-acquired cases, 517 hospitalizations, 2 deaths, 47 states reporting , with more than 12,255 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed or requiring further investigation . https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html - [2026-08-12] ABC News reported that combining confirmed and pending cases, cases of cyclosporiasis topped 24,000 according to CDC data, with at least 13,895 laboratory-confirmed cases (740 hospitalizations) and at least 10,455 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed , though the rate of increase appeared to have slowed, with only about 2,000 more cases recorded over the last week . https://abcnews.com/Health/24000-cyclosporiasis-infections-reported-new-cases-slow-cdc/story?id=135514625 - [2026-08-26] Case counts continued climbing: since May 1, 2026, CDC had received reports of 17,180 laboratory-confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the U.S., resulting in 922 hospitalizations and two deaths . https://www.food-safety.com/articles/11627-cdc-reports-up-to-7-000-cyclosporiasis-cases-across-us-identifies-large-midwestern-outbreak-cluster - [2026-09-11] CDC formally declared the Taylor Farms lettuce-linked outbreak over, with a final total of 12,883 illnesses across 21 states, at least 570 hospitalizations and two deaths (both in Michigan) , this being one subcluster within the broader national case count. https://foodpoisoningbulletin.com/2026-cyclospora-outbreak/ - [2026-09-15] CDC's dedicated "Cyclospora Case Data" page (last updated/reviewed Sept 15, 2026) reports for the full 2026 season (May 1–Aug 31): "Since May 1, 2026, CDC has received reports of 19,883 laboratory-confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States," with 1,064 hospitalizations and 2 deaths across 49 states plus DC; it also separately lists 2,078 lab-confirmed travel-acquired cases outside the U.S. in the same window. It further notes 9,765 additional cases pending domestic/travel classification and at least 6,594 more not yet lab-confirmed or pending submission. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/cases/index.html - [2026-09-15] CDC announced it will stop weekly updates to this page: "As of September 15, CDC will stop updating this page weekly because the number of recent infections has significantly declined," while planning periodic updates going forward. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/cases/index.html - [2026-09-30] A roundup piece (dated 2 days before today) summarized the season's final domestic tally as "nearly 20,000," stating the CDC reported 19,883 confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the US between May and August 2026, compared with 1,180 during the same period in 2025, with 1,064 hospitalizations and two deaths, in 49 states and DC . https://www.mundonow.com/en/us-food-recalls-cyclospora-outbreak-cheese-and-meat-alerts/ - [2026-01-03 week] Separately, CDC's formal Nationally Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) weekly table — a different, typically lower and lagged, official tabulation — showed cumulative YTD 2025 cyclosporiasis cases of only 3,952 nationally as of the week ending Jan 3, 2026, illustrating that the NNDSS "Cum YTD" channel runs well below the dedicated outbreak-surveillance page's totals and could matter if it is the designated "Source Agency" table for resolution. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/251467/cdc_251467_DS1.pdf BOTTOM LINE: On CDC's own dedicated Cyclospora surveillance page — the most authoritative, up-to-date tracker — domestically acquired lab-confirmed cases for the 2026 season already stood at 19,883 as of Sept 15, 2026 (plus 2,078 travel-acquired, and thousands more pending confirmation), meaning the 20,000 threshold for "cyclosporiasis cases reported in the United States during 2026" has very likely already been crossed or is essentially guaranteed to be crossed once pending cases are finalized before the Jan 8 expiration; the only caveat is if resolution instead keys strictly to the slower, lower NNDSS weekly tabulation rather than this outbreak-specific count. NOT FOUND: No official CDC or NNDSS update dated after Sept 15, 2026 giving a newer cumulative national total; no explicit statement from Kalshi/the market's rules clarifying which exact "Source Agency" table (dedicated Cyclospora page vs. NNDSS weekly table vs. combined domestic+international) governs final resolution; no post-September confirmation of how many of the ~9,765 "pending analysis" cases were ultimately classified as domestic vs. international.

- [2026-09-15] CDC's official case-data page reports since May 1, 2026, CDC has received reports of 19,883 laboratory-confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States with symptom onset dates during the 2026 cyclosporiasis season (May 1–August 31, 2026) , already near the 20,000 threshold from confirmed cases alone, with thousands more pending confirmation. - [2026-09-15] The same page notes For comparison, 1,180 cases were reported in the United States between May 1 and August 31, 2025 , and separately records 9,765 additional cases under investigation for domestic/travel status plus 6,594 more not yet lab-confirmed, implying a much higher eventual total once reporting lag (~6 weeks) resolves. - [2024 report, cited 2026-07] Historical annual lab-confirmed totals were far below 20,000: per Food Safety Magazine/CDC-derived reporting, Between 2019 and 2022, the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis in the U.S. ranged from a high in 2019 of 2,408 cases to a low in 2021 of 1,024 cases. By 2023, there were nearly 3,000 cases of cyclosporiasis reported in the U.S. - [2026-07-21] CNN reported federal officials' figures showing more than 4,500 cases in 2023 and more than 3,500 cases in 2024 — both well under the 20,000 threshold, underscoring that 2026 is an extreme outlier year. - [2016-2019 trend, consumerreports.org] Longer-term base rate shows steady pre-pandemic growth: cases of cyclospora have been steadily increasing over the past decade. According to CDC data, there were 537 cases In 2016, and by 2023 (the latest data available), the number of cases had increased to 4,463. - [2026-07-16, NBC News] A CDC official characterized typical annual case volume as roughly 2,700, far below 20,000: There are usually about 2,700 cases each year, mostly during the summer months. - [2026-07] On historical outbreak size, CNN cited USDA/FSIS reporting that the largest cyclospora outbreak in the US on record led to about 1,500 cases and involved raspberries. Other large outbreaks typically haven't surpassed 1,000 cases — meaning 2026's Midwest outbreak (6,000+ linked cases) is unprecedented relative to all prior outbreaks. - [2026-07-21] CNN described this year's outbreak as historically unique: With nearly 2,000 cases linked to the current outbreak centered in the Midwest, it is the largest known cyclospora outbreak in the US to date. - [2026-09 approx, genomicepi.com] Aggregated CDC/NORS outbreak data from 1990–2023 show cyclosporiasis outbreaks have historically been small in cumulative scale: The publicly available CDC's National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) data file includes 181 outbreak records from 1990 through 2023, totaling 6,251 illnesses and 198 hospitalizations. That is less than one-third of the single 2026 season's confirmed count. - [2026-09-15] State-level anecdote underscoring the scale of deviation from base rate: Michigan, which typically reports around 50 cases per year , has reported over 12,000 cases in 2026 per Food Safety Magazine reporting of state data. - [2026-01-05, CDC] The prior full season (2025) ended well below the 20k threshold: As of January 5, 2026, 1,180 cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States had been reported to CDC... Cases were reported by 38 states. BOTTOM LINE: Historically (2016–2025), annual U.S. cyclosporiasis case counts never approached 20,000 — typical years saw roughly 1,000–4,700 confirmed cases, making a "Yes" outcome a near-impossible base-rate event in any ordinary year. However, 2026 is a massive historical outlier: confirmed cases already stand at ~19,883 (plus ~9,765 pending confirmation and ~6,594 more unconfirmed) as of mid-September, so unlike the long-run base rate, the specific 2026 season has very likely already crossed 20,000 even before backdated reports from the ~6-week lag are fully tallied. NOT FOUND: An official CDC final/finalized annual tally for 2026 (the NNDSS "final" dataset, typically published well into the following year) was not available; nor was a specific post-September update beyond the Sept. 15, 2026 CDC case-data snapshot.

YES means: CDC's reported tally of cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 ends up above 20,000 — i.e., the 2026 season's case count (as tabulated by CDC's dedicated surveillance system, the "Source Agency" table) exceeds 20,000 once finalized by the Jan 8 expiration. - [2026-09-15] On its authoritative, most-recently-updated tracker, CDC states "Since May 1, 2026, 19,883 people have been reported with laboratory-confirmed cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States" , and separately for travel-acquired illness, the CDC confirms additional lab-confirmed cases acquired outside the U.S. in the same window — specifically 2,078 travel-associated lab-confirmed cases with 74 hospitalizations. Domestic-plus-travel confirmed cases reported to CDC already total 21,961, above 20,000, if "cases reported in the United States" is read to include all cases reported into the U.S. national system rather than only domestically-acquired illness. - [2026-09-15] Even restricting to domestically-acquired cases alone, CDC is withholding a further large buffer of near-certain additions: "There were 9,765 laboratory-confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis reported to CDC requiring further investigation to determine whether they were acquired in the United States or during travel. CDC is aware of at least 6,594 additional cases of cyclosporiasis, which include those that were not laboratory confirmed, or were pending patient interview and submission to CDC." Historically the large majority of such "pending" cases in this outbreak have been classified domestic, so even a modest confirmation rate on the 9,765 pending pool alone would push the domestic total well past 20,000. - [2026-09-18] Independent tracking (Marler Blog, compiling CDC's own page) confirms the pending pool, not CDC's confirmed count, is still the only thing separating the season from a vastly larger total: "Underneath the confirmed 19,883, CDC has 9,765 laboratory-confirmed cases still being sorted into domestic or travel-acquired and at least 6,594 more that are not laboratory confirmed or are awaiting an interview" , with travel-associated cases reported separately at 2,078. - [2026-09-20] A food-safety legal tracker (citing CDC's prior weekly release) shows the growth trajectory and scale of the "dark" pool explicitly: "Add the three categories together and CDC is aware of 35,099 cyclosporiasis cases this season." Even if only ~15% of that 35,099 aggregate is ultimately confirmed domestic beyond the already-counted 19,883, the 20,000 threshold is cleared. - [2026-09-21] Medical Daily (citing CDC data) documents that the domestic count kept climbing even after the official season "ended" August 31 and after the outbreak was declared over: "Since then, the domestic total has grown by 288 cases, and the agency has moved from weekly to occasional reporting." This confirms CDC's own stated mechanism — a ~6-week lag between symptom onset and reporting — is still actively adding new confirmed cases to the 2026 tally as of late September, with CDC itself cautioning "CDC warns that the season's unprecedented volume means earlier cases may keep arriving past that window." - [2026-09-29] A roundup piece two days before today reconfirms the season's running total is "nearly 20,000" but static at the Sept 15 CDC snapshot (19,883), with no newer official figure yet published — meaning the next CDC "periodic update" (rather than another weekly release) is the likely trigger that will push the publicly reported figure visibly over 20,000. - [2026-09-17] FDA's own outbreak page, syndicated via Carrier Management, corroborates that new cases kept being added to the outbreak subtotal through at least mid-September: "Since the last update on August 27, 2026, state and local health officials have continued to interview additional sick people with Cyclosporiasis and the CDC has added them to this multi-state outbreak." This is one concrete, ongoing channel (not the only one) by which the 9,765 "pending" pool continues to convert into confirmed domestic cases. - [2026-09-15] CDC's rules for its own page explicitly anticipate further growth of the official 2026 total, not a freeze: "CDC updated its Cyclospora case-data page on September 15, 2026, and said it was the last weekly one." It shifted only the update cadence (to periodic), not the counting methodology — meaning any future CDC release (which must occur before the Jan 8 expiration given the question's own backdating rule) will simply reflect further accretion from the already-identified pending pool. BOTTOM LINE: On CDC's own dedicated, most-current Cyclospora surveillance page, reported cases for 2026 already stand at 19,883 domestic-only (and 21,961 if travel-acquired cases reported to the same U.S. system are included), with CDC explicitly flagging roughly 16,000 additional cases in its pending/unconfirmed pipeline and an active ~6-week reporting lag still adding confirmed cases weeks after the "season" ended — making a final 2026 total above 20,000 the single most probable outcome on essentially any reasonable reading of "cases reported in the United States during 2026." NOT FOUND: No CDC update newer than September 15, 2026 giving a revised cumulative total (CDC has moved to "periodic" updates only); no explicit confirmation of how many of the 9,765 pending-classification cases have since been resolved as domestic versus travel; no clarification of exactly which CDC/NNDSS table Kalshi's rules designate as the binding "Source Agency" for final resolution.

YES means: CDC (or whichever official source governs resolution) confirms that more than 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases were reported in the United States during 2026; NO means the official reported count for 2026 stays at or below 20,000 by the time the market is settled. - [2026-09-15] CDC's own dedicated case-data page states the 19,883 lab-confirmed figure covers only "cases with symptom onset dates during the 2026 cyclosporiasis season (May 1–August 31, 2026)" — a defined sub-period, not the full calendar year the contract title references — and that figure is still below the 20,000 strike. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/cases/index.html - [2026-09-15] CDC explicitly announced it will stop weekly updates to this tracker "because the number of recent infections has significantly declined," switching to unspecified "periodic" updates, which removes the cadence that had been pushing the count upward each week and creates real risk that no further authoritative update crosses the line before the Jan 8 resolution check. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/cases/index.html - [2026-09-10/11] Food Safety News reported the confirmed national total at that point was 19,595 lab-confirmed domestic cases — still under 20,000 even after the entire outbreak season had concluded on Aug. 31 — while separately noting "the CDC is aware of 6,149 additional cases of cyclosporiasis, which include those that are not laboratory confirmed, or are pending patient interview and submission," underscoring that a large share of the "extra" cases CDC is "aware of" are explicitly not yet confirmed. https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2026/09/cdc-reporting-almost-20-000-confirmed-patients-in-cyclospora-outbreak/ - [2026-09-10/11] The same report shows a stark divergence between CDC's strict confirmed count and raw state tallies: "States are keeping their own tallies, with the total now standing at 33,548 cases this season," while explicitly noting that unlike states (some of which count by calendar year and "include probable cases and cases still pending classification"), "The CDC excludes both" — i.e., CDC's official national number, the most likely resolution source, deliberately strips out exactly the kind of pending/probable cases that would be needed to push the total convincingly past 20,000. https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2026/09/cdc-reporting-almost-20-000-confirmed-patients-in-cyclospora-outbreak/ - [2026-09-15 to present] North Carolina's state dashboard — one of the few jurisdictions still publishing after the national page went dark — shows the curve has essentially flatlined: "955 Cases Since May 2026" with only "3 Newly Reported Cases" logged "Since Sept. 15 update," and the state's own page notes "Cases began trending down at the end of August 2026," suggesting the nationwide backlog-to-confirmed conversion rate that would be needed to add ~120+ more cases nationally (let alone thousands) has slowed to a trickle. https://www.dph.ncdhhs.gov/programs/epidemiology/communicable-disease/foodborne-illnesses/cyclosporiasis/cases - [2026-10 search] No post-September-15 CDC update, HAN notice, or major news report could be found explicitly stating that the national lab-confirmed domestic count has crossed 20,000; the most recent authoritative figure located remains the Sept. 15 snapshot of 19,883, meaning no confirmed source yet shows the threshold breached. - [general] CDC's own NNDSS methodology notes caution against assuming monotonic increases: cumulative counts "may increase or decrease as updates occur" and "finalized annual data often differ from provisional counts," leaving open the possibility that final reconciliation (removing duplicates, reclassifying travel-linked or probable cases) nets the confirmed domestic total down rather than further up. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/174365 - [structural] The CDC page's own case definition draws a hard line between "Cases acquired in the U.S." (19,883) and "Cases acquired outside the U.S." (2,078, explicitly labeled as being "in addition to" the domestic figure), so if resolution hinges on the CDC's primary domestic figure rather than a combined total, the operative number sits roughly 117 cases shy of 20,000 as of the last confirmed snapshot, with no mechanism confirmed to guarantee it crosses before expiration. https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/cases/index.html BOTTOM LINE: The only clean, dated, officially confirmed CDC national figure (19,883 as of Sept. 15) sits just under 20,000, CDC has stopped its weekly cadence citing a "significant decline" in new infections, state-level data (NC) show new reports have nearly stopped, and CDC's own methodology explicitly excludes the thousands of "pending"/"probable" cases that would be needed to close the gap — all of which argue that the strict, officially-confirmed 2026 domestic total may never be affirmatively reported above 20,000 before the Jan 8 resolution check, even though informal "aware of" totals (confirmed + pending) already exceed it. NOT FOUND: Any CDC/NNDSS update dated after September 15, 2026 with a new national cumulative figure; any explicit Kalshi rule text specifying which exact CDC table/page is the binding "Source Agency" dataset (dedicated outbreak page vs. NNDSS Table 1I vs. a combined domestic+travel total); confirmation of how many of the ~16,000 pending/unconfirmed cases noted in September were ultimately lab-confirmed as domestic by late September or October.