forecasting
agent
← back to scans

Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

polymarketScience and Technology·2026-10-01·view on polymarket ↗
8%
Agent
24%
Market Price
-15.9%
Edge
71%
Confidence
96,539
Volume
1.0c
Spread
456
Days to resolution
3
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.07, 0.07, 0.07, 0.08, 0.09) after one crux research pass. (0) Nothing has resolved. ThirstyGrid's tracker (2026-09-19) and electricchoice (2026-09-30) both report no statewide Louisiana moratorium bill proposed or enacted. The only statewide action is EO 26-058, a tax-incentive condition that the rules explicitly exclude. The New Orleans ban is local and also doesn't count. (a) About 15 months remain. The only regular vehicle is the 2027 session, April 12 to June 10, 2027. It is an odd-year fiscal session where each legislator may file only five non-fiscal bills, and floor passage must come by the 42nd legislative day unless two-thirds agree. (b) The status quo is No. Louisiana has a GOP trifecta, and Gov. Landry publicly said "We don't need a moratorium." The LPSC is fast-tracking data-center approvals, and parish-level pauses in Caddo and St. Charles failed. (c) No scenario: the 2027 fiscal session passes at most incentive or ratepayer conditions, or nothing, and Landry calls no special session. That is the dominant path. (d) Yes scenario: ratepayer backlash over Meta's Hyperion and Entergy cost-shifting, plus 2027 election-year politics (governor and legislature are on the ballot in fall 2027), pushes a lawmaker to spend one of five bill slots on a >100MW moratorium. It would then have to pass both chambers and either get Landry's signature or a two-thirds override. That is very unlikely given his stance. The market sits at 23.5%, down from 36.5% in three days of thin trading. It appears to underweight the fiscal-session constraint and the governor's opposition; the national base rate for statutory moratoria is roughly one or two states. I fade well below the market but keep some tail for a political shock or a qualifying provision folded into broader data-center legislation.
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
17 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Polymarket question, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor. resolution_source should point at the Louisiana Legislature's bill search. polymarket_related and kalshi_related can show sibling state data-center moratorium markets for cross-venue signal. One targeted article search will check whether any Louisiana moratorium bill was filed in 2026, and what the session calendar looks like for 2027, when the regular session is fiscal-only in odd years.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 23.50% (live; bid 23% / ask 24%) - 7-day price change: -13.00% - 30-day price change: -13.00% - Total volume: $96,534 (USD notional) - Price range: 23.50% - 36.50% - Data points: 3 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Louisiana Legislature's generic Bill Search navigation/interface for the 2026 Regular Session, with no actual bill text, bill list, or substantive data about any data center moratorium legislation. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok - article_search: Fetched 15 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Louisiana legislature data center moratorium bill': 8 articles | 'Louisiana data center Meta Hyperion legislation 2027 session': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: As of early October 2026, Louisiana has no statewide data-center moratorium bill pending, no special legislative session called, a Republican governor and legislature actively opposed to a moratorium, and every attempted pause so far (Caddo Parish, St. Charles Parish) has been local and has failed; only New Orleans' city-level ban has succeeded. This strongly suggests no statewide enactment is imminent, though the 2027 Regular Session (convening date not yet announced) remains a window before th - base rate: The national base rate for statewide data-center moratorium bills becoming law is extremely low (effectively one success — New York — out of dozens of bills attempted in 2026, with Maine's veto underscoring even passed bills can fail), and Louisiana specifically has no statewide bill even introduced, a GOP trifecta government actively courting data centers, and a next regular session that only runs April–June 2027, leaving a narrow window before the December 31, 2027 deadline. - yes case: The strongest realistic path to YES is a statewide moratorium bill emerging from grassroots/ratepayer backlash (Caddo Parish repeat attempts, New Orleans East controversy, PSC public outcry, 24 AI-restriction bills already filed in 2026) that gets introduced and fast-tracked in the April–June 2027 Regular Session, mirroring Oregon's and New Mexico's 2027-session moratorium pushes — leaving a real, if narrow, window before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline even against a pro-data-center governor and GOP - no case: Beyond the GOP trifecta's pro-data-center posture already documented, Louisiana's own constitution confines the only regular 2027 legislative vehicle to a 45-legislative-day fiscal session in which a statewide moratorium bill is one of just five permitted non-fiscal filings per legislator, must clear floor votes before a 42-legislative-day/57-calendar-day deadline (or need a two-thirds supermajority after), and would still require a governor who has publicly rejected moratoriums to sign it — com Crux follow-up - The evidence strongly favors "No." There is no statewide moratorium bill currently filed or signaled, Louisiana's only viable near-term legislative vehicle (the 2027 fiscal session, April 12–June 10) is constitutionally restricted to budget/fiscal matters with tight non-fiscal bill limits, the GOP trifecta (including Gov. Landry, who has explicitly rejected a moratorium) is aggressively courting data centers, and even local-level moratorium efforts have failed repeatedly. The crux evidence corro
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
polymarket_direct OK 0.2s 1 ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 23.50% (live; bid 23% / ask 24%) - 7-day price change: -13.00% - 30-day price change: -13.00% - Total volume: $96,534 (USD notional) - Price range: 23.50% - 36.50%
resolution_source OK 2.8s 1 already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Louisiana Legislature's generic Bill Search navigation/interface for the 2026 Regular Session, with no actual bill text, bill list, or substantive data about any data center moratorium legislation.
polymarket_related OK 0.4s 10 Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets
kalshi_related OK 0.6s 1 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
article_search OK 1.0s 15 Fetched 15 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Louisiana legislature data center moratorium bill': 8 articles | 'Louisiana data center Meta Hyperion legislation 2027 session': 8 articles
research loops · 4/4 ok · 13 searches · 5 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 28s 3 2 5246 chars
base rate OK 28s 3 2 5211 chars
yes case OK 34s 3 1 4942 chars
no case SNIPPETS 37s 4 0 6088 chars · no page read; snippets only
report: current state
- [2026-09-19] No statewide Louisiana data center moratorium had been proposed or enacted as of this date, per a policy tracker citing Louisiana's economic development site; the state is rated "regulatory risk 3/10" and "Tier 1 hot" for data-center friendliness. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-09-17] The Louisiana Legislature's 2026 Regular Session has adjourned with no data-center special session called, and the convening date for the 2027 session was not yet set; both chambers are Republican-controlled and the 2026 Regular Session has adjourned with no data-center special session called, and no live data-center bill was identified, with the 2027 session convening date unknown. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-09-16] The Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) unanimously let Cleco Power's application tied to Applied Digital's $3.6B Rapides Parish data center proceed via an expedited "Lightning Initiative" pathway, without a final ALJ recommendation — a sign regulators are facilitating rather than restricting data centers. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-09-14] Caddo Parish Commission rejected a procedural move to advance a data-center construction pause (Resolution 53), following a 6–4 vote on 2026-09-01; the parish attorney stated an ordinance, not a resolution, would be legally required to enact any moratorium. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-08-31] A Caddo Parish Commission vote (6-4, 2 absent) rejected a resolution asking the Planning and Zoning Commission to consider a pause on data center construction ; most of unincorporated Caddo Parish has no zoning, so Amazon data center projects can proceed without local restrictions. https://savrn.com/data-center-moratorium-tracker - [2026-08-25] Axios New Orleans reported the city's local data-center construction ban (Interim Zoning District) will not expire until mid-2027, with CPC zoning recommendations going to City Council at its discretion — this is a local, not statewide, measure. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-06-26] Gov. Jeff Landry signed an executive order creating the "Ratepayer and Community Protection Initiative," directing Louisiana Economic Development to set criteria for power-intensive projects while continuing to promote data centers; advocacy groups called it largely symbolic, and it does not constitute a statutory moratorium. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [~2026-08 (published article)] Gov. Landry publicly rejected the idea of a moratorium, stating "We don't need a moratorium when we can have responsible growth," said Gov. Jeff Landry , contrasting Louisiana's stance with states tightening data-center rules. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html - [2026-04-06] St. Charles Parish Council denied (3-5) a proposed data-center moratorium ordinance, after an amendment shortening it from 12 to 8 months passed but the overall measure still failed; the parish instead adopted zoning/infrastructure-funding rules in June 2026. https://www.scpinformer.com/topics/data-centers - [2026-01-28] New Orleans City Council enacted a one-year local moratorium (Interim Zoning District) on new data-center development — this is a city-level, not statewide, action and explicitly would not satisfy the statewide requirement in this market's resolution criteria. https://www.wwno.org/economy/2026-01-29/new-orleans-city-council-bans-data-center-development-for-a-year-heres-why (via https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy) - [2026-11-03 (upcoming)] Louisiana holds a general election filling two of five LPSC seats (Districts 1 and 5), which will shape the PSC majority ruling on large-load tariffs in 2027; no candidate is reported as campaigning for a moratorium, and Republican candidates in both races have voiced support for continued data-center growth with modest ratepayer/environmental caveats. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-09-30 (aggregator snapshot)] A multi-state moratorium tracker lists Louisiana's only "statewide action" as Executive Order 26-058 (tax-incentive conditions), explicitly categorized apart from "true moratoriums" enacted in New York, Texas, and Oregon; "Ohio, Nebraska, Nevada, and Louisiana focused on rolling back or conditioning tax incentives" rather than banning construction. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, Louisiana has no statewide data-center moratorium bill pending, no special legislative session called, a Republican governor and legislature actively opposed to a moratorium, and every attempted pause so far (Caddo Parish, St. Charles Parish) has been local and has failed; only New Orleans' city-level ban has succeeded. This strongly suggests no statewide enactment is imminent, though the 2027 Regular Session (convening date not yet announced) remains a window before the 2027-12-31 deadline. NOT FOUND: The exact 2027 Louisiana legislative session convening date; any pending or pre-filed statewide data-center moratorium bill for the 2027 session; any statement from legislative leadership (House/Senate) on data-center moratorium plans.
report: base rate
- [2026-03-13] Across the 2026 legislative cycle, state data center moratoriums faced hurdles in 2026 as 14 bills across 11 states stalled, with none of the statewide proposals passing their originating chamber as of that date , showing enactment is historically rare and slow even where introduced. https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/3/13/local-data-center-regulations-gain-ground-as-state-bills-falter - [2026-07-01] New York became the sole exception: the New York State Legislature passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act, imposing a one-year moratorium on state permits for new large data centers with peak demand of 20 megawatts or more , and this was reported as the first-in-the-nation statewide moratorium if signed. https://www.dlapiper.com/en-us/insights/publications/2026/07/new-york-state-legislature-passes-first-in-the-nation-data-center-moratorium - [2026-04] Maine's attempt illustrates the fragility of this reference class: a one-year/20MW moratorium bill (LD 307) was reported as both "passed" by one tracker and separately noted that Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill, stating she supports a temporary moratorium and would have signed it with an exemption for the Androscoggin Mill site — conflicting accounts suggest even "successful" statewide bills can still fail enactment. https://www.rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/ - [2026-09-29] A tracker summarizing nationwide state action lists eleven governors (Virginia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, and Louisiana) signing executive orders or directives rather than statutory moratoriums, and Louisiana's own executive-type measure only requires data centers to fully fund power and infrastructure before receiving state tax incentives — explicitly not a moratorium under the question's criteria. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ - [2026-09-19] A dedicated Louisiana-specific tracker states plainly: "Louisiana (statewide): No statewide moratorium proposed or enacted as of 2026-09-19" , confirming zero statewide bills have even been formally introduced as of late September 2026. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-09-19] The same source notes both chambers are Republican-controlled and the 2026 Regular Session has adjourned with no data-center special session called, and no live data-center bill was identified, with the 2027 session convening date unknown at that time . https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-10-01] Louisiana's next regular legislative session (the only normal legislative vehicle for enactment before the market deadline) is confirmed to convene April 12, 2027 and adjourn by June 10, 2027 — "The 2027 Regular Legislative Session will convene at noon on Monday, April 12, 2027... Final Adjournment no later than 6:00 pm on Thursday, June 10, 2027" — leaving roughly six months after adjournment before the December 31, 2027 deadline for a bill to pass and be signed. https://www.legis.la.gov/legis/Home.aspx - [2026-09-01/14] The only Louisiana sub-state moratorium attempts in 2026 (Caddo Parish, St. Charles Parish) both failed: Caddo Parish Commission rejected a resolution 6-4 to even begin considering a pause, with the parish attorney noting an ordinance, not a resolution, would be required , and St. Charles Parish rejected a proposed eight-month moratorium, instead adopting infrastructure-funding regulations — indicating weak local-level momentum that would need to translate to state level. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-10-01] Louisiana's governor is firmly pro-data-center: Governor Jeff Landry (R) is strongly pro-data-center, with Louisiana Economic Development actively recruiting hyperscalers; his Ratepayer and Community Protection Initiative executive order is the sole hedging move , suggesting any moratorium bill reaching his desk would face a high veto risk even if it cleared the GOP-controlled legislature. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy - [2026-02-20] The broader reference class: in 2026, more than 300 state data center legislation bills were filed across 30+ states in just six weeks, marking a shift from incentive-focused policies to regulatory oversight , yet only one state (New York) has advanced a statewide moratorium to the governor's desk, a success rate well under 5% among introduced moratorium bills nationally. BOTTOM LINE: The national base rate for statewide data-center moratorium bills becoming law is extremely low (effectively one success — New York — out of dozens of bills attempted in 2026, with Maine's veto underscoring even passed bills can fail), and Louisiana specifically has no statewide bill even introduced, a GOP trifecta government actively courting data centers, and a next regular session that only runs April–June 2027, leaving a narrow window before the December 31, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any pre-filed or drafted Louisiana statewide moratorium bill for the 2027 session; no polling or formal odds/forecasts specific to Louisiana enacting a statewide moratorium; could not confirm whether a special session might be called before 2027 regular session.
report: yes case
YES means: Louisiana's Legislature passes, and Gov. Landry signs (or the Legislature overrides a veto, or the measure otherwise becomes law under the state constitution), a statewide law or constitutional provision prohibiting/suspending approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation of all new data centers (or all new centers over 100MW) before 2027-12-31. - [2026-10-01] The only viable legislative vehicle is the 2027 Regular Session, confirmed to convene April 12, 2027 and adjourn by June 10, 2027, which still leaves roughly six months before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline for a bill passed in that window to be signed. https://www.legis.la.gov/legis/Home.aspx - [2026-05-07] A "bipartisan wave of resistance" is documented in Baton Rouge: Louisiana legislators filed at least 24 AI-related bills in the 2026 session seeking to restrict AI technology, with nine still moving through committee process midway through the session, showing legislative appetite for tech-restriction bills exists even in this GOP trifecta. https://lailluminator.com/2026/05/07/data-center-2/ - [2026-08-19] Backlash has continued past the New Orleans moratorium's enactment: a new data-center proposal in New Orleans East triggered fresh City Council motions, and Mayor Helena Moreno publicly announced her opposition to the development, indicating sustained, escalating local political pressure rather than a one-off event. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/one-year-data-center-moratorium-introduced-in-new-orleans-louisiana/ - [2026-08 approx.] Following the statewide pushback, local officials in Caddo Parish introduced resolutions "to issue a moratorium on data centers and to require data centers to produce environmental impact studies," showing repeated, renewed local attempts even after earlier failures. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html - [2026-09-29] Nationally, the trend toward statewide moratoria is accelerating via the legislative session route: Oregon's governor's September directive freezing state land for data centers "supports statewide moratorium in 2027 legislature," and Minnesota has a statewide moratorium bill (HF 4888) already in committee — demonstrating that 2027 legislative sessions are an active, proven vector for statewide moratorium bills elsewhere, a template Louisiana legislators could replicate. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ - [2026-09-29] New Mexico lawmakers (a comparable red/purple-tinged legislature analogue) have explicitly announced plans to introduce a statewide moratorium bill in their 2027 session, and cite a Gallup finding that about "63% of Republicans surveyed were against local data center construction," underscoring that opposition to data centers is not confined to Democratic strongholds and could pressure even a Republican-controlled Louisiana legislature to act. https://www.kob.com/news/proposed-moratorium-on-data-centers-to-come-up-in-2027-legislative-session/ - [2026-09-18] Ratepayer anger is documented at the state regulatory level: dozens of residents spoke out against Meta's $50 billion data center at a Public Service Commission meeting, and the backlash followed a consultant's finding that a proposed Entergy transaction would effectively shift costs onto residential ratepayers — a grievance that could be channeled into a statewide legislative moratorium push once the 2027 session convenes. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html - [2026-09-30] Even the tracker cataloguing Louisiana as merely "Active" with only an executive order (26-058) and "None" statewide moratorium bills still flags Louisiana for close monitoring alongside states like Michigan where "Governor opposes moratorium" yet a bill remains "in play," indicating trackers consider a Louisiana reversal plausible enough to watch rather than foreclosed. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest realistic path to YES is a statewide moratorium bill emerging from grassroots/ratepayer backlash (Caddo Parish repeat attempts, New Orleans East controversy, PSC public outcry, 24 AI-restriction bills already filed in 2026) that gets introduced and fast-tracked in the April–June 2027 Regular Session, mirroring Oregon's and New Mexico's 2027-session moratorium pushes — leaving a real, if narrow, window before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline even against a pro-data-center governor and GOP legislature. NOT FOUND: No confirmed pre-filed Louisiana statewide moratorium bill text for the 2027 session; no statement from any sitting Louisiana legislator (as opposed to New Mexico's) committing to introduce such a bill; no polling data specific to Louisiana voters on data-center moratoria.
report: no case
YES means: Louisiana enacts a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium (meeting the resolution's "all new data centers" or ">100MW subset" test) via gubernatorial signature, veto override, no-signature lapse, or referendum, at any point between 2026-09-29 and 2027-12-31. - [2026-10-01] Louisiana's constitution classifies 2027 as an odd-numbered year, and the Legislature's official session calendar confirms the 2027 Regular Session is a limited-scope "fiscal" session, not a general session. https://www.legis.la.gov/legis/Home.aspx - [2025] Louisiana Revised Statutes codify that All regular sessions convening in odd-numbered years shall convene at noon on the second Monday in April. The legislature shall meet in such a session for not more than forty-five legislative days. and critically no matter intended to have the effect of law, except a measure proposing a suspension of law, shall be considered on third reading and final passage in either house after six o'clock in the evening of the forty-second legislative day or fifty-seventh calendar day, whichever occurs first, except by a favorable record vote of two-thirds of the elected members of each house. - [2023] A session wrap confirms the practical effect of this rule structure: in the last comparable odd-year session, odd years are limited "fiscal" sessions; legislators could file unlimited fiscal bills, unlimited local bills, and only 5 general bills. A statewide data-center moratorium is a general regulatory (non-fiscal) matter, so each of the 144 legislators is capped at five such bills total for the entire 2027 session, and must compete with every other non-fiscal priority (privacy, tort reform, etc.) for one of those slots. - [2025] Separately, a 2025 constitutional-amendment effort to simply raise the odd-year general-bill cap from five to seven failed to reach the ballot, per the engrossed Senate Bill 20 text and Ballotpedia's "Not on the ballot" listing of the Louisiana Odd-Year Legislation Amendment — indicating no appetite even for marginal loosening of this exact procedural constraint. https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_2026_ballot_measures - [2026-10-01] A governor's office explainer confirms the only other normal legislative vehicle before the deadline — a special session — may be called by one of two ways, either by the governor or the legislature... can only last for a limited amount of time but no more than 30 days, and bills must stay within the proclamation's subject scope; Gov. Landry (who publicly rejected a moratorium per the Aug 2026 reporting already surfaced) controls the most common trigger for such a call. - [2026-09-18 est.] A newer legislative tracker (post-dating the colleagues' Sept 19 ThirstyGrid snapshot) still lists no statewide Louisiana moratorium bill, showing only regulatory bills: Louisiana House Bill 1206 would establish new permitting and reporting requirements for data centers that consume more than 100 million gallons of water annually... data center operators would need to obtain permits from the state Department of Environmental Quality before construction or operation — a conditions-based permitting scheme, not a default prohibition, and thus would not itself satisfy the resolution criteria even if enacted. - [2026 tracker, updated ~2026-09-18] That same bill (HB 1206) is reported as having stalled and carried over rather than passing in 2026: a national tracker lists Louisiana's "Statewide moratorium bills (2025–26)" column as "None" and separately notes Statewide: HB 1515 (1 MW+) carried over to 2027 for a related but distinct large-load/tax bill, underscoring that Louisiana's legislature has not advanced any bill meeting this market's moratorium definition even after a full regular session plus a partial fiscal session's worth of filings. - [2026-09-30] A national moratorium tracker's current classification places Louisiana only among states that focused on rolling back or conditioning tax incentives , explicitly distinct from the "true moratorium" category (New York, Texas, Oregon), reinforcing that the state's entire 2026 policy output — even its most aggressive measure — falls outside the resolution's qualifying definition. - [2026-08-25 / ongoing] The one enacted Louisiana moratorium of any kind remains New Orleans' local Interim Zoning District, which per Axios reporting already in the record runs only to mid-2027 and is capped at the city level — structurally incapable of satisfying the "throughout the state" requirement, and no parish or city moratorium has even survived a single vote elsewhere (Caddo, St. Charles both failed). - [2026] A local activism guide used by advocates lobbying the Legislature itself flags the mechanical hurdle facing any 2027 moratorium push: In odd-numbered years, we have Fiscal Sessions in which bills dealing with money matters may be introduced. During a Fiscal Session, each member may still file bills that are not about money matters, but they can only file five per legislator. BOTTOM LINE: Beyond the GOP trifecta's pro-data-center posture already documented, Louisiana's own constitution confines the only regular 2027 legislative vehicle to a 45-legislative-day fiscal session in which a statewide moratorium bill is one of just five permitted non-fiscal filings per legislator, must clear floor votes before a 42-legislative-day/57-calendar-day deadline (or need a two-thirds supermajority after), and would still require a governor who has publicly rejected moratoriums to sign it — compounding the procedural case for NO on top of the political and historical-base-rate case. NOT FOUND: Any Louisiana legislator's 2026–2027 public statement announcing intent to prefile a statewide moratorium bill for the 2027 fiscal session; confirmation of HB 1206's final 2026 disposition (died vs. formally carried over) and whether it would count as "local/special" (unlimited) rather than "general" (5-bill-capped) under Joint Rule 20; any indication a special session call covering data centers is being sought by legislative leadership.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean · re-drawn after crux research
crux research
The first round disagreed: the draws' mean 0.08 sits 0.16 from the same-question market "this polymarket market" at 0.23. One more research loop went after the crux and every draw below was redone with its report.
first-round draws: 6%, 7%, 7%, 9%, 10% · crux loop: 3 searches, 1 page reads
report: crux
CRUX: Whether any statewide Louisiana moratorium bill has been (or is likely to be) introduced and could pass the GOP-trifecta legislature/governor given the odd-year 2027 fiscal session's restrictive scope, since the dispute is really about political feasibility/vehicle availability rather than current status (all forecasters agree nothing has happened yet). - As of 2026-09-19, the primary tracker reports "No statewide moratorium proposed or enacted as of 2026-09-19" for Louisiana, with the only statewide action being the tax-incentive-conditioning Executive Order 26-058 (https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy). - Both chambers are Republican-controlled and the 2026 Regular Session has adjourned with no data-center special session called; no live data-center bill was identified (ThirstyGrid, updated 19 Sep 2026). - Gov. Jeff Landry has publicly stated "We don't need a moratorium when we can have responsible growth," while actively promoting projects like Meta's Hyperion and Amazon's expansions (Shreveport-Bossier Advocate, ~Aug 2026). - The only state executive action, EO 26-058, directs Louisiana Economic Development Secretary Susan Bourgeois to come up with new requirements within 90 days for any data center facility to claim a state tax incentive... balancing investor interests with resident interests, specifically electricity costs — a tax-incentive condition, explicitly excluded from the market's qualifying definition (Louisiana Illuminator, 26 Jun 2026). - The 2027 session is a constitutionally restricted fiscal session: per the Louisiana Constitution, in odd-numbered years the Legislature convenes on the last Monday in April and meets for no more than 45 legislative days... and can only consider measures regarding the state budget, revenues, and appropriations , with non-fiscal bills limited — official House bulletin confirms it convenes Noon, Monday, April 12, 2027; adjourns not later than 6:00 PM on Thursday, June 10, 2027 , and a member may introduce not more than five additional bills after session begins, with exceptions only for appropriations/budget-type bills (house.louisiana.gov). - Regulatory momentum is pro-development: LPSC on 2026-09-16 unanimously let Cleco's Applied Digital-related application proceed without a final ALJ recommendation , and the commission's Large Load Additions Guidelines remain non-binding with no statewide large-load tariff adopted , signaling no regulatory appetite for a pause. - Local moratorium attempts have repeatedly failed at the sub-state level: Caddo Parish Commission rejected a pause on data-center construction on 2026-09-14 after a 6–4 vote on 2026-09-01 declined to advance Resolution 53 , and St. Charles Parish Council rejected a proposed eight-month moratorium around April 2026 and instead adopted data center regulations — suggesting weak political will even locally, let alone statewide. - No federal or other-state "fast mover" dynamic appears likely to force Louisiana's hand; nationally as of September 2026, no U.S. state has enacted an outright ban on data centers , with most actions limited to incentive rollbacks or siting scrutiny rather than true moratoriums. BOTTOM LINE: The evidence strongly favors "No." There is no statewide moratorium bill currently filed or signaled, Louisiana's only viable near-term legislative vehicle (the 2027 fiscal session, April 12–June 10) is constitutionally restricted to budget/fiscal matters with tight non-fiscal bill limits, the GOP trifecta (including Gov. Landry, who has explicitly rejected a moratorium) is aggressively courting data centers, and even local-level moratorium efforts have failed repeatedly. The crux evidence corroborates the lower-end forecasts (~0.08) rather than the market's 0.23, since nothing in the record suggests a credible path to a qualifying statewide statute or constitutional amendment by end of 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any pending or planned statewide bill text for the 2027 session, no indication of an imminent special session call, and no polling/legislative vote-counting data on how a hypothetical moratorium bill would fare if filed.
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
Yes 7%
No 93%
(0) Nothing has resolved. ThirstyGrid's tracker (2026-09-19) and electricchoice (2026-09-30) both report no statewide Louisiana moratorium bill proposed or enacted. The only statewide action is EO 26-058, a tax-incentive condition that the rules explicitly exclude. The New Orleans ban is local and also doesn't count. (a) About 15 months remain. The only regular vehicle is the 2027 session, April 12 to June 10, 2027. It is an odd-year fiscal session where each legislator may file only five non-fiscal bills, and floor passage must come by the 42nd legislative day unless two-thirds agree. (b) The status quo is No. Louisiana has a GOP trifecta, and Gov. Landry publicly said "We don't need a moratorium." The LPSC is fast-tracking data-center approvals, and parish-level pauses in Caddo and St. Charles failed. (c) No scenario: the 2027 fiscal session passes at most incentive or ratepayer conditions, or nothing, and Landry calls no special session. That is the dominant path. (d) Yes scenario: ratepayer backlash over Meta's Hyperion and Entergy cost-shifting, plus 2027 election-year politics (governor and legislature are on the ballot in fall 2027), pushes a lawmaker to spend one of five bill slots on a >100MW moratorium. It would then have to pass both chambers and either get Landry's signature or a two-thirds override. That is very unlikely given his stance. The market sits at 23.5%, down from 36.5% in three days of thin trading. It appears to underweight the fiscal-session constraint and the governor's opposition; the national base rate for statutory moratoria is roughly one or two states. I fade well below the market but keep some tail for a political shock or a qualifying provision folded into broader data-center legislation.
claude-opus-5-5
68% conf
Yes 7%
No 93%
(0) Resolution check: the condition is not met. ThirstyGrid's Louisiana tracker (2026-09-19) reports no statewide moratorium proposed or enacted. The only statewide action is Landry's EO 26-058, which conditions tax incentives; it is non-statutory and excluded by the rules anyway. New Orleans' local ban does not count. (a) About 15 months remain until December 31, 2027. The only regular legislative vehicle is the 2027 session (April 12 to June 10), and it is an odd-year fiscal session: each legislator may file only five non-fiscal bills, and final-passage deadlines are tight. (b) Status quo is No. Louisiana has a GOP trifecta aggressively courting hyperscalers (Meta Hyperion, Amazon). Gov. Landry said publicly "We don't need a moratorium when we can have responsible growth," and the PSC is fast-tracking data-center applications. (c) NO scenario: no bill is filed, or a bill dies in committee in the fiscal session. Ratepayer backlash gets channeled into large-load tariffs or tax-incentive conditions rather than a default prohibition. (d) YES scenario: ratepayer anger over Meta/Entergy cost-shifting and repeated parish fights push a legislator to use one of their five general-bill slots for a moratorium on facilities over 100MW. Election-year politics in 2027 would then get it through both chambers and past Landry, or past a veto by a two-thirds override. That chain is highly improbable. The national base rate is also very low: only a handful of states have enacted statutory moratoria, and Maine's was vetoed. I anchor on the Polymarket price of 23.5%, but this new, thinly traded market has already fallen from 36.5%. The procedural fiscal-session constraint and the governor's explicit opposition appear underpriced, so I move well below it to about 7%.
claude-opus-5-5
68% conf
Yes 7%
No 93%
(0) Nothing has resolved this yet. The ThirstyGrid tracker (Sep 19, 2026) and ElectricChoice (Sep 30) both report that no statewide Louisiana moratorium bill has even been proposed. Louisiana's only statewide action so far is EO 26-058, which conditions tax incentives and is explicitly excluded from qualifying, and only New Orleans has a local moratorium. (a) About 15 months remain until Dec 31, 2027. The only regular legislative vehicle is the April 12 to June 10, 2027 session, and it is an odd-year fiscal session in which each legislator may file only five non-fiscal bills. The other route is a special session, which Gov. Landry would almost certainly have to call. (b) If nothing changes, no bill exists and the outcome is No. (c) NO scenario: no moratorium bill is filed, or one dies in committee in the restricted fiscal session. The GOP trifecta keeps courting Meta's Hyperion and Amazon projects, and Landry, who said 'We don't need a moratorium,' would veto anything that passed. (d) YES scenario: ratepayer anger over the Meta/Entergy cost shift and PSC outcry spreads statewide in an election year (legislative and gubernatorial races in fall 2027). A legislator then spends one of their five general-bill slots on a >100MW pause, it passes, and Landry signs it or a two-thirds override succeeds. That is very unlikely given local pauses failed even in Caddo and St. Charles parishes. The market price of 23.5% (already down from 36.5%) looks far too high relative to the documented procedural and political barriers. I shade well below it but keep some weight on an unforeseen backlash or special session, and on the risk that the trackers missed something.
gpt-5.6-sol
79% conf
Yes 8%
No 92%
(0) The condition has not already been met: the official Louisiana Legislature fetch contains no substantive bill information, while the September 19 policy tracker reports no statewide moratorium proposed or enacted; a qualifying statute or constitutional provision must still be enacted by December 31, 2027. (a) About 15 months remain, but the principal legislative window is the restricted April 12–June 10, 2027 fiscal session, unless an unlikely data-center-related special session is called. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because existing measures consist of local restrictions, incentive conditions, and permitting rules, none of which meet the statewide statutory-moratorium definition. (c) The most likely No scenario is that no qualifying bill is filed or it stalls in the short fiscal session, with the Republican legislature and Governor Jeff Landry continuing their pro-development approach; Landry has explicitly said Louisiana does not need a moratorium, regulators are facilitating projects, and local pause efforts in Caddo and St. Charles failed. (d) A Yes scenario would require ratepayer and local opposition to intensify enough that a legislator uses a limited general-bill slot for a statewide pause covering all new or over-100-MW facilities, followed by rapid passage and gubernatorial assent or a veto override. I mark Yes well below Polymarket's 23.5% anchor because the unusually specific contrary evidence—no filed or announced bill, an odd-year fiscal-session constraint, a hostile governor, failed local efforts, and a very low national enactment base rate—substantially weakens the remaining path, though the 2027 session and possibility of a political shock prevent a near-zero price.
gpt-5.6-sol
76% conf
Yes 9%
No 91%
(0) The condition is not documented as already met: the official Legislature page returned only a generic search interface, while the September 19 Louisiana tracker found no statewide moratorium proposed or enacted, so a qualifying statute or constitutional provision must still be enacted by December 31, 2027. (a) Roughly 15 months remain, but the principal legislative window is the limited 2027 fiscal session from April 12 through June 10, with any special session both uncertain and constrained by its call. (b) If nothing changes, the outcome is No because Louisiana currently has only local measures and incentive or permitting conditions, none of which meet the statewide statutory-moratorium definition. (c) The central No scenario is that no qualifying bill is filed—or one stalls or is vetoed—amid a GOP-controlled legislature, tight odd-year non-fiscal bill limits, failed local moratorium attempts, pro-development regulatory action, and Gov. Jeff Landry's statement that Louisiana does not need a moratorium. (d) A Yes scenario would require ratepayer and local backlash to intensify enough for a legislator to fast-track a mandatory statewide pause during the 2027 session, followed by Landry reversing course, the bill becoming law without his signature, or a veto override. I move well below Polymarket's 23.5% Yes anchor because the follow-up research found no pending or announced bill, an unusually restrictive legislative vehicle, explicit gubernatorial opposition, and a very low national enactment base rate, although the remaining session and possibility of a political or grid-cost shock keep Yes above a negligible probability.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws · second round
8% (71% confidence)
Yes: 8% No: 92%
Mean of 5 draws (0.07, 0.07, 0.07, 0.08, 0.09) after one crux research pass. (0) Nothing has resolved. ThirstyGrid's tracker (2026-09-19) and electricchoice (2026-09-30) both report no statewide Louisiana moratorium bill proposed or enacted. The only statewide action is EO 26-058, a tax-incentive condition that the rules explicitly exclude. The New Orleans ban is local and also doesn't count. (a) About 15 months remain. The only regular vehicle is the 2027 session, April 12 to June 10, 2027. It is an odd-year fiscal session where each legislator may file only five non-fiscal bills, and floor passage must come by the 42nd legislative day unless two-thirds agree. (b) The status quo is No. Louisiana has a GOP trifecta, and Gov. Landry publicly said "We don't need a moratorium." The LPSC is fast-tracking data-center approvals, and parish-level pauses in Caddo and St. Charles failed. (c) No scenario: the 2027 fiscal session passes at most incentive or ratepayer conditions, or nothing, and Landry calls no special session. That is the dominant path. (d) Yes scenario: ratepayer backlash over Meta's Hyperion and Entergy cost-shifting, plus 2027 election-year politics (governor and legislature are on the ballot in fall 2027), pushes a lawmaker to spend one of five bill slots on a >100MW moratorium. It would then have to pass both chambers and either get Landry's signature or a two-thirds override. That is very unlikely given his stance. The market sits at 23.5%, down from 36.5% in three days of thin trading. It appears to underweight the fiscal-session constraint and the governor's opposition; the national base rate for statutory moratoria is roughly one or two states. I fade well below the market but keep some tail for a political shock or a qualifying provision folded into broader data-center legislation.
5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader
Side
no
Position Size
$900
Contracts
1169
Trader Confidence
71%
Trade rationale
This trade goes with the favourite. NO is priced at 76.5% and the forecast puts YES at 7.6%, an edge of about 16pp toward NO. The five forecasts in the ensemble agree closely, between 7% and 9%. My searches confirmed the main facts. No statewide moratorium bill exists or is pending. Gov. Landry said in July 2026 that "we don't need a moratorium." His executive order EO 26-058 only puts conditions on tax incentives, and analysts don't treat it as a moratorium. The local pauses proposed in Caddo and St. Charles parishes both failed. The 2027 session is a fiscal session that limits each legislator to five non-fiscal bills, and any bill would face a hostile governor. The tape is moving our way: about 99% of the $41k traded over the last 72h was NO buying. The real risk is the national trend. Texas's Republican governor has ordered a moratorium, and New York and Oregon have acted too, so a moratorium coming from the governor himself, or a moratorium clause tucked into a broader bill, can't be ruled out. That is a reason to think 7.6% is a bit low. It doesn't make 23.5% look fair. Forecaster confidence is 0.71, which is moderate, and I'm using it only to nudge size.
Allocation logic
The edge size alone would support more than $1,000. But the book already holds four NO positions on data center moratoria (Missouri, Indiana, Oklahoma and Ohio, about $3.9k), and they could all lose together if a national wave of moratoria picks up. So I'm keeping this one just under the baseline at $900. The spread is 1 cent and trading volume is decent, so filling $900 shouldn't cost much in slippage.
Entry price: $0.77
Current: $0.88
Status: OPEN
P&L: $114.45
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 115.1s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.