Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.97 by Dec 31?

- [2026-09-30] The OCPI-B200 index (Ornn Compute Price Index for NVIDIA B200) settled at **$8.09 per GPU-hour**, per the official Ornn Data market page. The settled index value for B200 is $8.09 per GPU-hour as of September 30, 2026, settled daily at 4:00 PM ET. This is already above the $7.97 strike. https://data.ornn.com/markets/b200 - [2026-09-29] The prior day's settle was $8.14/hr, per the Ornn markets overview page listing NVIDIA B200 180 GB HBM3e, Blackwell, Index value $8.14, as the latest settled Ornn Compute Price Index value . https://data.ornn.com/markets - [2026-09-17 to 2026-09-30] The index has risen steadily and consistently over the past two weeks: settled values went from $7.10 (Sep 17) to $7.26, $7.43, $7.71, $7.71, $7.77, $7.95, $8.01, $8.04, $8.04, $8.08, $8.11, $8.14, and $8.09 (Sep 30), per Ornn's own 14-day settled-value table. Sep 23: $7.95, +2.3%; Sep 24: $8.01, +0.8%; Sep 25: $8.04, +0.4%; Sep 26: $8.04, 0.0%; Sep 27: $8.08, +0.5%; Sep 28: $8.11, +0.4%; Sep 29: $8.14, +0.4%; Sep 30: $8.09, -0.6% . https://data.ornn.com/markets/b200 - [2026-09-30] Ornn's own trend commentary states the OCPI-B200 has moved +1.8% over the last seven days and +33.3% over thirty days (from $6.07 per GPU-hour) , confirming a strong and sustained uptrend rather than a one-day spike. https://data.ornn.com/markets/b200 - [2026-09-30] Ornn also reports the three-month public window spans $5.13 (low) to $8.14 (high) , meaning the all-time (3-month) high of $8.14 was hit on Sep 29, 2026, just one day before measurement. https://data.ornn.com/markets/b200 - [2026-09-29] A separate cached snapshot of the Ornn preview/home dashboard corroborates the level, showing B200 $8.14 September 29, 2026 OCPI-B200 , consistent with the dedicated B200 page. https://data.ornn.com/preview - [2026-10-01 cache] A near-real-time cached fetch of the H200 market page (listing cross-GPU comparisons) shows B200 | $8.09 , matching the Sep 30 settle, indicating no reversal has yet occurred into early October. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-09-18] Independent third-party trackers (not the resolution source but directional confirmation) also show elevated and rising B200 prices: gpus.io reported Per GPU hour: From $7.810 +47.8% 30d for one provider's listing, consistent with the broad uptrend Ornn's index captures. https://gpus.io/en/gpus/b200 - [2026-08-??] Earlier in the question's life (per Tomasz Tunguz's widely cited analysis of Ornn data), B200 prices had already seen a historic 114% six-week surge from ~$2.31 to ~$4.95/hr, showing the index is capable of large rapid moves in either direction. B200 GPU rental prices surged 114% in six weeks according to ORNN marketplace data, spiking from $2.31 to $4.95 per hour since early March. https://tomtunguz.com/b200-gpu-pricing-spot-market-model-releases/ - [2026-09-30] Ornn states settlement occurs once daily at a fixed time, and only the settled value (not intraday ticks) counts for the index: The value settles once per trading day at 4:00 PM ET; regional and term pricing varies around it. This is the authoritative resolution mechanic referenced by the Kalshi contract's rules. https://data.ornn.com/markets/b200 BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent settles (Sep 29–30, 2026), the Ornn OCPI-B200 index — the explicit resolution source — stood at $8.09–$8.14/hr, already above the $7.97 strike, following a strong and fairly steady ~33% rise over the trailing 30 days; absent a reversal of roughly 1-2% or more before Dec 31, the threshold condition is currently being met. NOT FOUND: No official Ornn statement or news item specifically addressing expected trajectory through December 2026; no evidence of scheduled hardware/pricing events (e.g., B300 ramp, major compute deals) between now and Dec 31 that Ornn or other sources explicitly tie to a reversal below $7.97.

- [2026-04-27] Ornn-sourced data showed B200 spot rental prices rising from $2.31/hr in early March 2026 to $4.95/hr by late April 2026, a 114% increase in six weeks, with analysis noting the spike "aligns with frontier model releases" and that the spot market tends to lead contract pricing by roughly 90 days. (https://tomtunguz.com/b200-gpu-pricing-spot-market-model-releases/) - [2026-04-27] Historical pattern since the B200's September 2025 launch: the B200-H200 price spread started wide, collapsed to near parity by November 2025 as supply increased, then re-widened sharply in Q2 2026 — illustrating that the index has swung both up and down over its ~1-year history rather than moving monotonically. (https://tomtunguz.com/b200-gpu-pricing-spot-market-model-releases/) - [2026-09-25] A separate SemiAnalysis-based tracker reported B200 cloud-rental prices climbing 79% over three months to reach $8.01 per GPU-hour as of late September 2026, corroborating a strong sustained uptrend in the months leading into Q4 2026. (https://shattered.io/nvidia-b200-cloud-price-79-percent-surge-2026/) - [2026-09-30] The Ornn Compute Price Index (OCPI-B200) — the explicit data source named in this market's rules — settled at $8.09/GPU-hour on September 30, 2026, already above the $7.97 strike referenced in the question. (https://data.ornn.com/preview) - [2026-09-29] A day earlier, the same Ornn index/markets pages showed B200 settling at $8.11–$8.14/GPU-hour, confirming the index has been trading in the $8.09–$8.14 band for several consecutive days, i.e., consistently above $7.97. (https://data.ornn.com/markets) - [2026-09-29] Independent third-party trackers show a very wide dispersion of B200 "market" prices depending on provider tier: specialist/neocloud providers (Hyperbolic, Hyperstack, Modal) quote $5.99–$6.25/hr while hyperscalers (Oracle, AWS, Google Cloud) quote $14.00–$16.11/hr, underscoring that no single "B200 price" exists outside an index methodology like Ornn's volume-weighted approach. (https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/nvidia-b200-pricing) - [2026-09-27] Spheron's own live B200 on-demand quote was $8.34/hr (spot $4.33/hr) as of September 27, 2026, roughly consistent with Ornn's $8.09–$8.14 settled index and reinforcing that multiple independent trackers now cluster near/above the $7.97 threshold. (https://www.spheron.network/blog/nvidia-b200-cloud-pricing-2026/) - [2026-05] One industry estimate from earlier in 2026 (alatirok.com) had pegged median on-demand B200 pricing at only $5.24/hr in May 2026, showing the roughly 50%+ rise in the index over the following four months. (https://alatirok.com/gpu-cloud-pricing-2026/) - [2026-04] One forward-looking industry estimate (inworld.ai, published ~April 2026) had predicted pricing would "stabilize around $2.50-3.00/hr at major providers by Q4 2026" as supply ramped — a prediction that has been strongly contradicted by the actual trajectory of the Ornn index rising toward $8+/hr instead. (https://inworld.ai/resources/nvidia-b200-gpu-cloud) - [2026-04] The B200-vs-B300 compute trend piece from Ornn itself (dated earlier in 2026) had argued B200 "price is compressing as B300 supply ramps," which did not materialize in the Ornn index by September 2026, where B200 instead rose sharply. (https://ornn.com/insights/nvidia-b200-vs-b300-why-use-one-instead-of-the-other) BOTTOM LINE: The base-rate picture for this index is one of a highly volatile, trend-driven series (swinging from ~$2.31 to ~$8+ over roughly a year, with intermittent compressions), and most "stabilization" or "price decline" forecasts made earlier in 2026 did not pan out — the realized trend has instead been strongly upward and is already sitting above $7.97 on the exact Ornn source cited in the resolution rules as of the most recent settlements (Sept 29–30, 2026), implying a high prior probability of resolution staying YES absent a sharp reversal. NOT FOUND: No official Ornn-published long-run (multi-year) base rate of how often the B200 index has previously crossed/held above specific dollar thresholds like $7.97; no explicit market-maker or analyst "forecast" for the Dec 31, 2026 B200 price; could not access full historical daily B200 OCPI time series (subscription-gated) to quantify volatility/persistence statistically.

YES means: the Ornn Compute Price Index value for B200 (OCPI-B200) is reported above $7.97/GPU-hour on or before Dec 31, 2026 (effectively: it stays above that level through the Dec 31 settlement, per the resolution source dashboard.ornnai.com / data.ornn.com). - [2026-09-29] A fresh fetch of the primary resolution-adjacent page (data.ornn.com/markets, "Latest settlement: September 29, 2026") lists the B200 index at $8.11 per GPU-hour, confirming the most-current cross-checked print still sits ~1.75% above the $7.97 strike, consistent with but slightly different from the $8.09–$8.14 figures colleagues cited. https://data.ornn.com/markets - [2026-09-29] ICE Futures U.S. issued an exchange notice confirming it and Ornn will make OCPI H100/B200 reference data available on its trading platform from Oct 5, 2026, ahead of launching cash-settled "OCPI B200 Futures" (symbol BKL) — institutional validation that the Ornn index is becoming the standard reference price, reducing the odds of a methodology change or discontinuation before Dec 31. https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf - [2026-09-13] Spheron reported Spheron B200 instances list at $4.42/hr spot as of 17 Sep 2026 , but this is a spot/single-provider quote, not the volume-weighted Ornn index — illustrating the index's premium over raw spot, but also that even low-end spot pricing has risen well above the ~$2-3/hr levels seen earlier in 2026. - [2026-09-13 reporting] A third-party tracker citing Silicon Data states NVIDIA B200 GPUs now trade at 158% of launch price, a 58% premium, as Silicon Data flags a worsening AI GPU shortage in September 2026 , and attributes this to advanced packaging capacity, HBM3e and HBM4 memory availability, and CoWoS interconnect capacity at TSMC have all acted as bottlenecks on how many Blackwell-class chips NVIDIA can actually ship in a given quarter, regardless of how strong demand is — a structural supply constraint likely to persist into Q4. - [2026-07-15, hikes effective through 2026] AWS, a major hyperscaler reference point, raised GPU reservation rates twice in 2026, leaving its P6-B200 Capacity Block at $12.355 for P6-B200 per accelerator-hour as of July 1, and explicitly flagged AWS says these reservation prices are "updated regularly based on trends in supply and demand," with the next scheduled update slated for October 2026 — a scheduled catalyst this month that historically has only moved rates upward (two hikes, zero cuts, in 2026). - [2026-09-23] Spheron's shortage analysis states the easing catalyst is not expected until later: Milestone | Status | What it changes | What it does not change ... Samsung and Micron memory ramp | Late 2026 | Eases H200 and B200 memory constraint | Much of the new output is HBM4, not HBM3e , implying any supply relief lands too late or is too partial to meaningfully compress the index before Dec 31. - [2026-09-23] The same source notes Blackwell allocation is locked up well past year-end: Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon placed multi-billion-dollar forward orders for Blackwell GPUs (GB200, B200) in 2025, consuming most of NVIDIA's available allocation capacity through the end of 2026 and into 2027 , a mechanism that structurally restricts B200 cloud supply through the entire remaining question window. - [2026-09-30 colleague-cited] Ornn's own 30-day trend commentary already shows a sustained climb from ~$6.07 to ~$8+ (per prior report), and the newest cross-checked data point here ($8.11 on Sep 29) corroborates that this is not a single-day artifact but a multi-week, multi-source-confirmed level holding comfortably above $7.97. - [2026-10 (effective)] The CME/ICE compute-futures launch (Oct 5, 2026) is itself evidence market participants are now treating elevated B200 pricing as a durable, hedgeable risk factor rather than a transient spike, per On October 5, 2026, CME Group plans to list the first two US-regulated compute futures contracts on NYMEX, pending regulatory review: Silicon Data H100 Rental Index Futures and Silicon Data B200 Rental Index Futures . BOTTOM LINE: Every freshly checked primary and secondary source (Ornn's own markets page at $8.11–$8.14, AWS's hiked $12.355 Capacity Block rate, Silicon Data's 158%-of-launch resale premium, and Spheron's supply-forecast table) points to the B200 index sitting well above $7.97 as of late September 2026, with the binding supply constraints (HBM3e/CoWoS bottlenecks, hyperscaler allocation lock-up through 2027) not expected to ease meaningfully before Dec 31 — the straightforward path to YES is simply "no reversal," which the current trend and structural drivers both favor. NOT FOUND: No explicit Ornn or ICE guidance on where the index is projected to settle specifically on Dec 31, 2026; no evidence yet of the October AWS "third adjustment" outcome; could not confirm whether the Oct 5 CME futures listing itself could alter Ornn's index methodology or liquidity in a way that moves the spot/index level.

YES means: the Ornn OCPI-B200 index (the Kalshi resolution source) prints a settled value above $7.97/GPU-hour on Dec 31, 2026. The NO case argues the index falls back to ≤$7.97 before/at that settlement. - [2026-09-29] A separate GPU-pricing tracker's distribution shows Spheron B300 on-demand prices rising from ~$9.16/hr (Sep 6) to ~$10.21/hr (Sep 21), illustrating that Blackwell-family rental prices remain capable of rapid multi-day swings in *either* direction, which cuts against assuming the current uptrend simply continues to Dec 31. (https://tech-insider.org/ca/amd-mi400-hbm4-nvidia-rubin-b300-2026/) - [2026-09-07 updated] Spheron's own supply analysis states Samsung and Micron HBM3e capacity should begin to "ease on-demand price premiums for H200 and B200" with pressure starting to reduce specifically in Q4 2026 — directly inside this market's remaining window. (https://www.spheron.network/blog/gpu-shortage-2026/) - [2026-09-04-sourced] The same piece cites Micron concretely adding "around 60,000 HBM wafers per month, reaching roughly 100,000 by the end of 2026" — a specific, dated supply-side mechanism (not just sentiment) that could loosen the B200 memory bottleneck before Dec 31. (https://www.spheron.network/blog/gpu-shortage-2026/) - [2026-09-17] Spheron's B300 guide states Blackwell Ultra pricing compression is expected "likely over the next 6-12 months" as Vera Rubin volume shipments pull frontier demand off Blackwell Ultra — and since B300/B200 are substitute capacity within the same OCPI methodology umbrella, Rubin ramp-driven demand migration away from Blackwell could pull B200 pricing down with it. (https://www.spheron.network/blog/nvidia-b300-blackwell-ultra-guide/) - [2026-09-29] An ICE Futures U.S. exchange notice confirms OCPI B200 futures (symbol BKL) are still pre-launch, with only "hypothetical daily settlement prices" being published for system testing ahead of a planned Oct 5, 2026 reference-data rollout — meaning the index underlying this Kalshi contract is young, thinly battle-tested infrastructure where methodology revisions or data gaps remain a live risk to any specific threshold reading by Dec 31. (https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf) - [2026-10-01 snapshot] On Polymarket's "GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?" sibling market (resolving on reported/transacted B200 rental prices, not necessarily identical methodology to Ornn but directionally relevant), roughly 22% of implied probability sits in buckets below $7.00/hr, with the $6.00-$6.50 bucket alone priced near 10% — non-trivial market-assigned tail risk of a meaningful pullback by year-end. (https://polymarket.com/event/gpu-rental-prices-b200-end-of-2026-20260709165336437) - [2026-04-27 / historical] The index's own history includes a 114% six-week surge followed by subsequent compressions (B200-H200 spread "collapsed to near parity by November 2025" before re-widening), confirming this series does not move monotonically and has previously round-tripped sharp gains. (https://tomtunguz.com/b200-gpu-pricing-spot-market-model-releases/) - [2026-09-17] ThunderCompute's September B300 pricing page shows on-demand neocloud B300 rates starting "near $7.10/GPU-hr," i.e., below the $7.97 B200 strike — showing that even the newer, nominally premium Blackwell Ultra tier is pricing some capacity under the strike level today, leaving room for B200 (an older, increasingly displaced SKU) to compress toward or below that band as B300/Rubin supply broadens. (https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/nvidia-b300-pricing) - [2026-09-30] Colleagues' own data shows the index's most recent move was a -0.6% daily decline (from $8.14 to $8.09) after eight consecutive up-days — the first down-tick in the run, which, combined with the 3-month high having been set just one day earlier, is consistent with a local peak rather than guaranteed continuation, leaving the exact pullback mechanics (any further 1-2%+ give-back) unresolved. BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on concrete, dated supply-side mechanisms (Micron/Samsung HBM3e ramp reaching ~100k wafers/month by year-end, Rubin pulling frontier demand off Blackwell, B300 already pricing some capacity near/under $7/hr) that are explicitly timed to bite in Q4 2026, plus sibling-market pricing (~22%+ implied probability of sub-$7.00 end-2026 B200 rates) and the index's own history of sharp reversals and its still-experimental futures infrastructure — all of which leave a plausible, evidence-backed path to a pullback to ≤$7.97 by Dec 31, even though it would require reversing the current uptrend. NOT FOUND: No Ornn-specific statement forecasting a B200 decline below $7.97 by Dec 31; no confirmed single catalyst (e.g., a specific hyperscaler contract renegotiation or large reserved-capacity release) dated between Oct 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 that would trigger an immediate reversal; could not fetch a full historical Ornn OCPI-B200 time series to quantify how often multi-week uptrends of this magnitude have reversed within a ~3-month window.