Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027? — Before 2027

- [2025-06-30] Meta announced creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL), reorganizing foundation-model teams and installing Alexandr Wang as Chief AI Officer to lead "the next generation of our models." https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/30/mark-zuckerberg-creating-meta-superintelligence-labs-read-the-memo.html - [2025-12-11] Reports (CNBC via Digitimes) said Meta was delaying its Llama successor, then code-named "Avocado," to Q1 2026 and shifting toward closed-source development. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251211PD206/meta-llama-development-2026.html - [2026-01-01] As of January 2026, Wikipedia records the most recent release is the Llama 4 , with no Llama 5 having shipped. - [2026-04-08] Meta's own blog post (reported by CNBC) confirms the Avocado project was released as "Muse Spark," not "Llama 5": Dubbed Muse Spark and originally code-named Avocado, the AI model announced Wednesday is the first from the company's new Muse series developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs . https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/meta-debuts-first-major-ai-model-since-14-billion-deal-to-bring-in-alexandr-wang.html - [2026-04-08] Wikipedia's Llama article corroborates this: In April 2026, Meta Superintelligence Labs released Muse Spark as a replacement for Llama powering chatbots on various Meta services. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Llama_(language_model) - [2026-07-07] Meta expanded the Muse family with Muse Image (released) and Muse Video (announced only), per Wikipedia's Meta AI page: Meta subsequently expanded the family with specialized models including Muse Image and Muse Video. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_AI - [2026-08-05] Meta released "Muse Code," a terminal coding agent built on Muse Spark 1.2, per a model tracker. https://innfactory.ai/en/ai-models/meta-llama/ - [2026-08-10] Meta released "Muse Glimmer 30B," an open-weight model (Apache 2.0) distinct from the Llama naming line, per the same tracker. https://www.gradually.ai/en/meta-ai-statistics/ - [2026-08-23] A dedicated explainer site states directly: Meta has not announced a model called Llama 5, and there is no official release date for one. As of late August 2026, the most recent open-weight generation Meta has published under the Llama name is the Llama 4 family . https://coursiv.io/blog/llama-5-release-date - [2026-09-02] Meta's strongest current model, Muse Spark 1.3, shipped with efficiency gains; still proprietary/closed-weight, per a Meta-model tracker current "As of 20 September 2026." https://innfactory.ai/en/ai-models/meta-llama/ - [2026-09-08] Meta launched "Muse," a personal AI agent (US-only, free/$20/$100 tiers) powered by Muse Spark — again under the Muse brand, not Llama. https://www.gradually.ai/en/meta-ai-statistics/ - [2026-09-28] An independent benchmark tracker's "Best Meta AI Models" leaderboard for September 2026 lists only Muse Spark variants and older Llama 3.x/Muse Glimmer models — no Llama 5 appears anywhere. https://benchlm.ai/best/meta-models BOTTOM LINE: As of October 1, 2026, Meta has not released any model named "Llama 5" (or "Llama V"/"Llama Five"); its 2026 frontier releases were rebranded entirely under the "Muse" name (Muse Spark, Muse Image, Muse Code, Muse Glimmer, Muse agent), with the newest open-weight Llama-named model still Llama 4 from April 2025, making a pre-January-2027 "Llama 5" release increasingly unlikely absent a sudden strategic reversal. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any official Meta announcement, teaser, or roadmap explicitly naming an upcoming "Llama 5"; no confirmed plan to revive the Llama brand name before the January 2027 deadline. Several low-quality/content-farm sites (ragyfied.com, swfte.com, plainai.aguidetocloud.com) falsely claimed a "Llama 5" release in April/June 2026 — these contradict Meta's own primary announcement and are not credible.

- [2023-02-24] Llama 1 released (research-only); [2023-07-18] Llama 2; [2024-04-18] Llama 3; [2024-07-23] Llama 3.1; [2024-09-25] Llama 3.2; [2024-12-07] Llama 3.3; [2025-04-05] Llama 4 (Scout, Maverick; Behemoth previewed but never shipped) — the historical cadence shows roughly annual major releases with minor point updates in between: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Llama_(language_model) - [2025-06] Meta began developing a larger frontier model (codenamed "Behemoth," later supplanted) after Zuckerberg reportedly expressed displeasure with Llama 4's reception, and formed Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) under new Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang following a $14.3B Scale AI deal: in June 2025, Meta began developing a larger model codenamed Behemoth, reportedly motivated by Zuckerberg's displeasure with Llama 4; Meta spent more than $14 billion to acquire a 49% stake in Scale AI, and Scale AI's CEO Alexandr Wang moved to Chief AI Officer at Meta, leading MSL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Superintelligence_Labs - [2025-12] Multiple reports (CNBC, WSJ) indicated Meta's next flagship model, codenamed "Avocado," was being built as a closed/proprietary system rather than open-weight, marking a philosophical break from the "Llama" open-source brand, with release pushed to Q1/H1 2026: "Meta Platforms is reportedly delaying the release of its next-generation AI model, Avocado, to the first quarter of 2026" (digitimes.com). - [2026-04-08] Meta Superintelligence Labs officially launched "Muse Spark" — explicitly described as the first model in a *new* "Muse" series, not a Llama-branded release: "Today we are announcing Muse Spark, the first in a new series of large language models built by Meta Superintelligence Labs... Over the last nine months, Meta Superintelligence Labs rebuilt our AI stack from the ground up." https://about.fb.com/news/2026/04/introducing-muse-spark-meta-superintelligence-labs/ - [2026-04] A credible AI practitioner's firsthand post confirmed the "Avocado" project shipped under the Muse Spark name, not as "Llama 5": "Meta released Avocado, they call it Muse Spark. It's not open source (a bit sad). Meta TBD lab rebuilt the entire pretraining stack in 9 months and reached similar capability with >10x less compute than Llama 4 Maverick." https://x.com/Yuchenj_UW/status/2041913811519918459 - [2026-04-24+] An independent tracker of Llama releases noted no new open-weight Llama generation has shipped since April 2025: "As of April 2026, Llama 4 is the current generation... The caveat is direction of travel — Meta has not published a new open generation since April 2025, and its 2026 frontier models ship behind a closed API." https://www.aichatdaily.com/llama - [2026-09-01] A dedicated fact-check article explicitly states no Llama 5 has been announced and flags a wave of contradictory, fabricated SEO articles claiming Llama 5 was already released: "Meta has not announced a model called Llama 5, and there is no official release date for one. As of late August 2026, the most recent open-weight generation Meta has published under the Llama name is the Llama 4 family, and the company's 2026 frontier work has appeared under a different brand entirely." https://coursiv.io/blog/llama-5-release-date - [2026-09-01 (same source)] The same analysis explicitly warns the search results are polluted with fake "Llama 5 released" articles with mutually contradictory dates and specs, counseling readers to verify only via ai.meta.com/llama.com/about.fb.com, which contains no Llama 5 announcement. - [market/reference] Forecasting-market reference class: on Manifold, a "When will Meta release Llama 5?" market with thresholds Jan 2026/Jul 2026/Jan 2027/etc. remained unresolved toward "Yes" through the relevant windows shown in search snippets, consistent with no public Llama 5 launch; a sibling Kalshi contract ("Will Meta release Llama 5 before January 2026?") existed for the Jan-2026 deadline, implying the market structure treats this as a recurring, rolling-deadline question rather than a near-certain near-term event. - Base-rate pattern: Meta's last three major-version jumps (1→2, 2→3, 3→4) each took roughly 9–12 months, but the post-Llama-4 period (April 2025–October 2026, 18 months) has NOT produced a Llama 5, instead producing an organizational pivot (MSL/TBD Lab), a name change (Muse/Avocado), and a strategic shift toward closed-weight flagship models — breaking the prior annual-release pattern. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view built on Llama's prior ~annual cadence would suggest a "Llama 5" was "due" by mid-to-late 2026, but the actual post-Llama-4 trajectory shows Meta's next flagship generation was rebranded "Muse"/"Avocado" (not Llama) and shifted toward closed-weight release, with no credible primary source confirming any "Llama 5" launch as of early September 2026 — strongly suggesting the historical release-cadence base rate does not apply here and a straightforward Llama-5 release before January 2027 is unlikely based on reference-class/trend evidence alone. NOT FOUND: No official Meta/ai.meta.com or llama.com announcement of a product named "Llama 5" (or variant) could be found; no confirmation of the Manifold/Kalshi markets' current live prices or resolution status (excluded per instructions); no evidence of an imminent (Q4 2026) Llama 5-named announcement in credible reporting.

YES means: Meta publicly releases a model explicitly named "Llama 5" (or an accepted variant like "Llama 5 Mini," "Llama Five," "Llama V") — even behind a high-cost paywall, but outside closed beta — at any point before January 1, 2027. - [2026-04-06] Axios reported, via sources, that Meta is "preparing to release the first new AI models developed under Alexandr Wang, with plans to eventually offer versions of those models via an open source license" — confirming an open-weight release is still explicitly on Meta's roadmap, not abandoned outright. https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/meta-open-source-ai-models - [2026-04-06] The same Axios scoop states Meta's new models are meant to help it "catch up to rivals after its last Llama 4 family fell significantly behind, with an aim of building future models that can lead the industry" — i.e., Meta's own framing treats Llama 4 as the baseline generation still needing a successor. https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/meta-open-source-ai-models - [2026-04-06] Reporting notes Meta "wants to keep some pieces proprietary and to ensure they don't add new levels of safety risk" before any open release — implying an open-weight tranche is a matter of timing/engineering, not a scrapped plan. https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/meta-open-source-ai-models - [~2026-07, reported 2026-09] At Bloomberg Tech 2026, Alexandr Wang called Muse Spark the "appetizer" and said Meta is "'cooking' much larger models" that are expected to be "very competitive with the world's leading models" — confirming a bigger, more capable successor generation is actively in development. https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3883859610974848 - [2026-06-14] CNBC reported that despite the Muse Spark pivot, Wang "has indicated that some of its largest new models will remain proprietary — a shift toward a more hybrid strategy," which per Axios still leaves room for smaller/open-weight tiers to carry forward an open brand, potentially reviving "Llama" for that open-weight tier even as flagship work stays under "Muse." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/14/meta-hired-alexandr-wang-to-build-ai-its-zuckerbergs-job-to-sell-it.html - [Historical mechanism] Meta has previously kept the Llama name alive for derivative/specialized releases even amid a major rebrand: LlamaCon 2025 featured continued investment in the open-source "Llama ecosystem" (Llama Guard 4, LlamaFirewall) alongside frontier development, showing Meta is willing to run two brand tracks in parallel rather than fully retire "Llama." https://ai.meta.com/blog/llamacon-llama-news/ - [Mechanism/precedent] Historically Meta has shipped incremental Llama versions rapidly once a base generation existed (Llama 3→3.1→3.2→3.3 within eight months per the colleague base-rate report), so if Meta decides the next "Muse"-generation open-weight spinoff should carry the Llama name instead of a new brand, a nominal "Llama 5" badge-relabel of an already-near-complete open-weight model could ship quickly, with three months (October–December 2026) still remaining before the deadline. - [Caveat on evidence pollution] Multiple SEO/content-farm sites (e.g., swfte.com dated 2026-06-30, aiunpacking.com) already claim a "Llama 5" release occurred, with detailed (but mutually inconsistent and unverifiable on any Meta primary source) benchmark figures — while not credible as confirmation, they show there is active public anticipation/rumor-mill pressure consistent with a real near-term Llama-branded announcement being plausible enough to generate fabricated "leaks." BOTTOM LINE: The most credible path to YES is Meta releasing an open-weight tier of its next-generation ("post-Muse-Spark") model family and branding that specific tier "Llama 5" to preserve goodwill with the open-source developer community, as foreshadowed by the Axios open-source-commitment scoop and Wang's "cooking much larger models" comments — a path that requires only a branding decision on an already-in-development model, not a wholly new build, leaving a narrow but non-zero window before January 2027. NOT FOUND: No primary Meta source (ai.meta.com, llama.com, about.fb.com) explicitly names an upcoming release "Llama 5"; no confirmed date for when Meta's "much larger," open-weight-eligible next model will ship; no official statement on whether the Llama brand will be reused versus retired in favor of "Muse."

YES means: Meta publicly releases (even if gated behind a high-cost subscription tier, but not a closed beta) a model officially named "Llama 5" (or an unambiguous successor numbering, e.g. "Llama V"/"Llama Five") before January 1, 2027. - [2026-09-28] Meta's newly announced "Meta Enterprise Platform" — unveiled by Zuckerberg and built to bring Meta's AI stack to businesses via new hire CJ Desai (ex-MongoDB CEO) — is built around "Muse API and Muse Code," with no mention of Llama anywhere in the plan; the reporter explicitly notes "Llama is missing from the plan" and "Meta hasn't said whether Llama will be part of the Enterprise Platform." https://thenewstack.io/meta-enterprise-platform-desai/ - [2026-09-28] The same enterprise-platform launch was covered in Spanish-language press, again centered entirely on "Meta Enterprise Platform" with Muse/CJ Desai framing and zero reference to a Llama line continuing. https://semana.com/tecnologia/articulo/zuckerberg-quiere-que-la-ia-de-meta-haga-mucho-mas-que-responder-preguntas-este-es-su-nuevo-plan/202639 - [2026-04-08] Meta's own technical blog language signals the Llama brand's frontier role is over, not paused: Meta said the Muse Spark release follows a stack "rebuilt... from the ground up" and that "the next generation is already in development" — explicitly as a continuation of the Muse lineage, not a Llama revival. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/meta-debuts-first-major-ai-model-since-14-billion-deal-to-bring-in-alexandr-wang.html - [2026-04-08] A second outlet's reporting on the same launch states Meta "broke with the company's previous approach of prioritizing development of free, open-access AI models such as Llama," reinforcing that Muse — not Llama — is now Meta's flagship track. https://techxplore.com/news/2026-04-meta-ai-team.html - [2026-08-18, refreshed] An independent open-source-LLM landscape tracker covering 2026's full field (DeepSeek V4, Qwen 3.5, Gemma 4, Mistral, Llama 4) lists Llama 4 (Apr 2025) as still Meta's newest open-weight release, with no Llama 5 entry in the family matrix. https://codersera.com/blog/open-source-llms-landscape-2026/ - [2026-09-21, "10 days ago"] A separate comparison site's "Best Open LLM 2026" rankings likewise lists only Llama 4 Scout/Maverick (Apr 2025) under Meta, still flagging it as an "aging generation" with no newer Llama entry. https://tech-insider.org/llama-4-vs-qwen-vs-mistral-2026/ - [2026-04-07] Contemporaneous reporting on the delayed "Avocado" project confirms Meta initially planned a March 2026 release that slipped and underperformed internally on coding/reasoning/writing versus Google's and others' offerings before finally shipping (as Muse Spark, not Llama 5) — evidence of a track record of slippage and brand abandonment rather than acceleration toward "Llama 5." https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/414114/meta-hybrid-superintelligence-could-shift-to-mostl.html - [2025-12-09] CNBC's original reporting on the Llama-to-Avocado shift states insiders "were expecting the model to be released before the end of" 2025, which then slipped once (to Q1 2026) and again (to April 2026) — illustrating a pattern of repeated delay for the only candidate "next-gen" model, none of which carried the Llama name when it finally shipped. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/09/meta-avocado-ai-strategy-issues.html - One low-credibility SEO/content-farm site (startuphub.ai, dated ~2026-06-05) claims a "Llama 5" already launched alongside Muse Spark with "context windows up to five million tokens," but this directly contradicts Meta's own primary blog post and multiple major outlets (CNBC, techxplore, mediapost) describing the April 2026 release as solely "Muse Spark" — this is the same pattern of fabricated "Llama 5 released" articles flagged by colleagues' Aug/Sept 2026 fact-checks, and should be disregarded as a NO-case fact rather than evidence for YES. BOTTOM LINE: Every verifiable primary and reputable-secondary source through the Sept 28, 2026 Meta Enterprise Platform launch shows Meta's 2026 model strategy has fully migrated to the "Muse" brand (Spark, Image, Video, Code, Glimmer, and now Muse API for enterprise), with Llama frozen at version 4 (April 2025) and now reportedly absent even from Meta's own forward-looking enterprise roadmap — a strong structural and rhetorical signal of status-quo inertia against any "Llama 5" branding reappearing before January 2027. NOT FOUND: No primary Meta source (about.fb.com, ai.meta.com, llama.com, investor.atmeta.com) mentioning any future "Llama 5" product, codename, or roadmap item; no statement from Zuckerberg, Wang, Bosworth, or Cox in 2026 earnings calls or blog posts indicating intent to revive the Llama numbering line; no explicit Meta denial that Llama is "dead," only its conspicuous absence from recent announcements.