Scan: Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question about Oklahoma state legislation, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor. The resolution source is the Oklahoma legislature's official site. polymarket_related and kalshi_related can surface sibling state moratorium markets for cross-market base rates. One targeted article_search checks whether any Oklahoma moratorium bill was filed or advanced in the 2026 session, since the session timing (adjourns in May, next session Feb 2027) is key.

2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters

at a glance

RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 34.50% (live; bid 34% / ask 35%) - 7-day price change: -11.00% - 30-day price change: -11.00% - Total volume: $31,004 (USD notional) - Price range: 32.50% - 45.50% - Data points: 3 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are generic Oklahoma Legislature and Senate homepage navigation pages with no mention of any data center moratorium bill, law, or legislative action on the topic. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok - article_search: Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Oklahoma legislature data center moratorium bill filed 2026 session': 8 articles | 'Oklahoma 2027 interim study data center moratorium': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: Oklahoma's only serious statewide moratorium attempt (SB 1488) died without a vote at the May 14, 2026 sine-die adjournment, and the most recent legislative activity (a Sept. 29, 2026 interim study) shows lawmakers leaning toward targeted regulation rather than a blanket moratorium, while all enacted moratoriums remain local (Oklahoma City, Norman, Edmond, etc.) or tribal (Cherokee Nation, Seminole Nation) rather than statewide — current trajectory points toward continued "No" through the questi - base rate: In the entire 2026 cycle — widely considered the high-water mark of the "data center moratorium" movement — no U.S. state has enacted a statutory/constitutional statewide moratorium (Oklahoma's own SB 1488 died in committee by May 2026, and even New York's bill, the furthest advanced in the country, remains unsigned with Hochul substituting a non-statutory executive order instead). This reference class suggests enacting a true statewide legislative moratorium is historically rare and faces stron - yes case: The single most plausible path to YES is Sacchieri (possibly with Chapman's House-side study lending cover) refiling a revised, better-vetted moratorium bill early in the 2027 session (convening ~February 2027), leveraging two completed 2026 interim studies, continuing water/utility rate grievances, and a wave of local moratoria creating political momentum for a uniform statewide rule — with enough runway (Feb–Dec 2027) for the bill to clear committee, both chambers, and receive a gubernatorial - no case: Every structural signal — a dead 2026 bill that never got a vote despite a veto-proof GOP trifecta, explicit anti-"one-size-fits-all" rhetoric from the lead regulator in the Sept. 29, 2026 interim study, a governor and Commerce Department actively courting new data-center investment, a compressed 2027 legislative calendar, and a national pattern in which zero states enacted a statutory moratorium even at the 2026 "high-water mark" — points to continued NO through Dec. 31, 2027. Crux follow-up - The evidence strongly favors "No." SB 1488 died without even a committee vote, the legislature's actual enacted output in 2026 was conditional regulation (ratepayer and groundwater rules) rather than a ban, Governor Stitt has publicly championed a "free market" approach, and the key legislative leaders overseeing fall 2026 interim studies (Chapman) are explicitly steering toward tailored safeguards rather than a statewide moratorium. No replacement bill has yet been filed for the 2027 session, w

tools

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? - Current price (probability): 34.50% (live; bid 34% / ask 35%) - 7-day price change: -11.00% - 30-day price change: -11.00% - Total volume: $31,004 (USD notional) - Price range: 32.50% - 45.50%
resolution_source	OK	3.3s	1	already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are generic Oklahoma Legislature and Senate homepage navigation pages with no mention of any data center moratorium bill, law, or legislative action on the topic.
polymarket_related	OK	0.5s	10	Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets
kalshi_related	OK	0.7s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
article_search	OK	0.9s	11	Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Oklahoma legislature data center moratorium bill filed 2026 session': 8 articles \| 'Oklahoma 2027 interim study data center moratorium': 8 articles

research loops · 4/4 ok · 15 searches · 6 page reads

dimension	status	time	searches	page reads	report
current state	OK	26s	4	2	4658 chars
base rate	OK	34s	4	2	5630 chars
yes case	OK	28s	3	1	4880 chars
no case	OK	33s	4	1	5723 chars

report: current state

- [2026-01-22] Sen. Kendal Sacchieri (R-Blanchard) filed SB 1488, which would establish a moratorium on the construction of new data centers in Oklahoma until November 1, 2029 and direct the Oklahoma Corporation Commission to study impacts . https://oksenate.gov/press-releases/senator-sacchieri-files-legislation-address-unknown-impacts-data-centers-oklahoma - [2026-01-15] A related bill, HB 4424, was introduced to narrow (not moratorium) the data-center ad valorem tax exemption; it is a tax-incentive measure, not a construction/operation ban. https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/ - [2026-05-14] The Oklahoma Legislature adjourned sine die; SB 1488 " never received a committee or floor vote and died at sine-die adjournment on May 14 ." https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/ - [2026-05-11] Gov. Kevin Stitt signed HB 2992, the Data Center Customer Ratepayer Protection Act, which addresses electric cost allocation, tariffs, and land-purchase notice but is not a moratorium. https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/ - [2026-05-20] SB 259 was enacted, effective Nov. 1, 2026, which prohibits issuing a groundwater permit for data-center cooling that consumes groundwater through open-air evaporation or non-recirculating discharge — a narrow water-use restriction, not a construction moratorium. https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/ - [2026-04-21/22] Oklahoma City Council (local, not statewide) unanimously approved a temporary moratorium on new data centers, taking effect immediately and remaining in place until either December 31, 2026, or earlier if amendments to the City's Zoning Code regarding data centers are approved ; later amended May 19 to exempt ≤75 MW facilities. https://www.okc.gov/News-articles/Oklahoma-City-Council-approves-moratorium-on-new-data-centers - [2026-06-23] Norman City Council (local) unanimously imposed a moratorium on data-center applications/permits through June 9, 2027. https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/ - [2026-08-10] The Cherokee Nation barred large-scale data centers on its tribal lands in Oklahoma (tribal, not state-government action). https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-09-29] As of the most recent development, House lawmakers (led by Rep. Mark Chapman, R-Broken Arrow) held an interim study at the State Capitol on regulating data centers, with no moratorium bill pending; discussion centered on balancing industry needs with resident concerns on water/utility costs, and referenced prior enacted laws (HB 2992, SB 259, SB 480) — none of which are moratoriums. https://oklahomavoice.com/2026/09/29/not-enough-data-or-expertise-oklahoma-lawmakers-consider-future-of-data-centers/ - [2026-09-29] Rep. Chapman stated he and colleagues favor nuanced, non-"one-size-fits-all" approaches to regulation rather than blanket bans, suggesting a new standalone statewide moratorium bill is not the current legislative direction. https://oklahomavoice.com/2026/09/29/not-enough-data-or-expertise-oklahoma-lawmakers-consider-future-of-data-centers/ - [2026-09-18 (tracker update)] A national moratorium tracker lists Oklahoma's statewide status as "Active... Statewide action: None; Statewide moratorium bills (2025–26): SB 1488: died" with only local/tribal bans in effect. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026 session calendar] The Oklahoma Legislature's next regular session (2027) is expected to convene in February 2027, per standard legislative calendar, meaning any new statewide moratorium bill would need to be filed, pass both chambers, and be signed within that session before the market's Dec 31, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any newly filed 2027-session Oklahoma statewide data-center moratorium bill as of October 2026 (the 2027 regular session has not yet convened); no statement from Gov. Stitt or legislative leadership expressing intent to pursue a statewide moratorium (as opposed to targeted ratepayer/water/tax measures); no indication of a ballot initiative or referendum effort for a statewide moratorium. BOTTOM LINE: Oklahoma's only serious statewide moratorium attempt (SB 1488) died without a vote at the May 14, 2026 sine-die adjournment, and the most recent legislative activity (a Sept. 29, 2026 interim study) shows lawmakers leaning toward targeted regulation rather than a blanket moratorium, while all enacted moratoriums remain local (Oklahoma City, Norman, Edmond, etc.) or tribal (Cherokee Nation, Seminole Nation) rather than statewide — current trajectory points toward continued "No" through the question's window, absent a major shift in the 2027 session.

report: base rate

- [2026-01-22] Oklahoma SB 1488, sponsored by Sen. Kendal Sacchieri (R-Blanchard), was filed to establish a moratorium on the construction of new data centers in Oklahoma until November 1, 2029 and direct the Oklahoma Corporation Commission to study the long-term effects these large facilities may have on state infrastructure and resources , applying to facilities with a moratorium on building or establishing "data centers" in Oklahoma until November 1, 2029, defined as a facility designed to handle a significant electrical load of 100 megawatts or more. - [2026-03-13] By mid-March 2026, reporting noted state data center moratoriums face hurdles in 2026 as 14 bills across 11 states stall... none have passed their originating chamber as lawmakers balance community concerns with economic development priorities , and specifically that Oklahoma's SB 1488... would impose a three-year moratorium on 100 MW+ data centers... The bill missed key legislative deadlines and is unlikely to advance this session . - [2026-05-14] Oklahoma SB 1488 is officially recorded as "Dead" per the bill-tracking summary, confirming it did not pass the 2026 Regular Session. - [2026-04-21] The only Oklahoma-related moratorium actually enacted in 2026 was local, not statewide: the Oklahoma City Council unanimously approved a moratorium on the construction and expansion of data centers... through the end of 2026, and specifically prohibits rezoning requests intended for data centers — this is explicitly excluded by the market's rules since it is a local, not statewide, measure. - [2026-09-30] A continuously-updated national tracker (SAVRN) found at least 16 Oklahoma data-center-related entries (mostly local), but lists no statewide Oklahoma moratorium in force, and nationally counts "0 States with an active pause or executive moratorium" enacted via statute, versus "10 States with bills pending in the legislature" and "4 States where a measure failed or vetoed." - [2026-06-04] The most advanced comparable state effort, New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act (S10642/A11560), a statutory one-year moratorium on permits for data centers ≥20MW, passed both houses of the New York State Legislature... clearing the Senate 44-16 and the Assembly 102-39 , but as of late September 2026 remains unsigned. - [2026-07-14] Rather than sign the statutory moratorium, NY Governor Hochul instead signed a first-in-the-nation executive order creating a one-year moratorium on the development of new large-scale data centers — an executive order, which under this Oklahoma market's own resolution rules (and by analogy for any OK equivalent) would NOT qualify as "enactment," illustrating that even the most advanced state moratorium effort nationally avoided statutory enactment in favor of a non-qualifying executive mechanism. - [2026-09-30] As of September 2026 Hochul still has not signed or vetoed the NY statutory bill; Hochul has until Dec. 31 to sign or veto the legislation, and if she takes no action the bill will not become law — showing that even where a bill fully passed both chambers, political dynamics pushed toward a pocket veto / executive-order substitute rather than statutory moratorium. - [2026-03-13] Outside Oklahoma, the pattern across the 11 states that introduced state-level moratorium bills in 2026 was uniformly stalled: State lawmakers ultimately passed SD SB 135, which prohibits the state from limiting local governments' authority to regulate or ban data centers. It didn't kill the moratorium concept, but instead granted that authority to localities — i.e., even in the one state (South Dakota) where action passed, it pushed authority to localities rather than creating a true statewide moratorium. - [2026-09-30] Nationally, momentum in 2026 has run toward narrower non-moratorium regulatory and tax-incentive measures (e.g., California's seven data-center bills signed Sept 21, 2026 on disclosure/rate issues, Arizona's 3-year tax-exemption pause, Maryland's task-force executive order) rather than true construction/interconnection moratoria, suggesting legislatures are substituting softer tools for outright bans. - [2026-09-18] MultiState's tracking shows the policy fight increasingly playing out via governors' races and executive actions rather than new statutes: Local data center moratoriums have gained more traction than state-level efforts, with dozens of municipalities across the country temporarily pausing new projects in response to constituent feedback , a pattern that held for Oklahoma specifically (OKC, Edmond, Choctaw, Shawnee, Tulsa all enacted local pauses, but no statewide one). BOTTOM LINE: In the entire 2026 cycle — widely considered the high-water mark of the "data center moratorium" movement — no U.S. state has enacted a statutory/constitutional statewide moratorium (Oklahoma's own SB 1488 died in committee by May 2026, and even New York's bill, the furthest advanced in the country, remains unsigned with Hochul substituting a non-statutory executive order instead). This reference class suggests enacting a true statewide legislative moratorium is historically rare and faces strong headwinds from economic-development interests, even when bills pass committee or one chamber. NOT FOUND: No evidence of a newly filed or revived Oklahoma statewide moratorium bill for the 2027 legislative session (which would convene in February 2027); no explicit statements from Governor Stitt or current OK legislative leadership about moratorium plans for 2027; no betting-market or poll data specifically on Oklahoma's statewide moratorium odds.

report: yes case

YES means: Oklahoma's state government enacts (governor signs or it becomes law without signature, etc.) a statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium that generally prohibits new data-center construction/permitting/interconnection (or a ≥100MW subset) by Dec 31, 2027. - [2026-01-22] Sen. Kendal Sacchieri's SB 1488 was the most advanced statewide moratorium vehicle nationally in the 2026 cycle, explicitly described as placing a moratorium on data centers with an electrical load greater than 100 MW until November 1, 2029, to allow the state PUC to study data center's impacts on the water supply, utility rates, and property values , demonstrating the policy already has a fully-drafted legislative template ready to be reintroduced with minimal redrafting. - [2026-07-14] Rather than abandoning the moratorium push after SB 1488 died, Sacchieri explicitly stated her interim-study strategy was to bring more attention to the issue to then get a better piece of legislation ready for next session — direct evidence of active intent to refile a strengthened moratorium bill for the 2027 session. - [2026-07-14] The Senate Pro Tem institutionally endorsed continued work on this issue: Senate President Lonnie Paxton approved a list of interim studies and one of them is a request made by Sen. Kendal Sacchieri (R-Blanchard)...entitled "Data Centers and what all they mean for our state." - [2026-07] A parallel House-side interim study was also commissioned, showing bipartisan/bicameral institutional attention: A data center study in the Oklahoma House was proposed by Rep. Mark Chapman, (R-Broken Arrow)... entitled "The Real Impact of Data Centers: Pros and Cons." - [2026-09-29/30] The House interim study (held just days before the question's "current state" snapshot) confirmed Rep. Chapman is still actively weighing next steps: Chapman said he will continue reviewing information gathered during the study to determine whether additional legislative action is warranted — leaving the door open to a moratorium-adjacent bill even from a lawmaker previously characterized as anti-"one-size-fits-all." - [2026-05-20 context] Oklahoma has already shown a willingness to enact binding supply-side restrictions on data centers via statute (the SB 259 groundwater permit ban, per colleagues' report), establishing legislative precedent and comfort with using mandatory prohibitions against data-center operations rather than only "soft" tax/tariff tools. - [2026-02] Senate leadership itself signaled data centers would dominate the agenda: Speaker Kyle Hilbert, R-Bristow, has filed HB 4424...He told Oklahoma Voice that he expects efforts to regulate data center development to be a main theme this legislative session — and this same prioritization is likely to recur in the 2027 session given continued public pressure. - [2026 cycle] Grassroots pressure remains intense and province-wide, evidenced by the spread of local moratoria across OKC, Norman, Edmond, Choctaw, Tulsa, Sand Springs, and Coweta documented by colleagues — a density of local bans that increases pressure on legislators to "go statewide" to create uniform rules rather than a patchwork, which was explicitly Sacchieri's stated rationale (per her bill-filing language) for pursuing a state-level pause. - [2026, bill sponsor's own words] Sacchieri has consistently framed the moratorium as filling a regulatory vacuum rather than permanently halting the industry, e.g. "By pausing further development, the state can gain empirical evidence on how large-scale data centers interact with Oklahoma's infrastructure and environment, and tailor regulations that protect residents and ratepayers without undermining economic prospects." This moderate framing could make a revised bill more palatable to colleagues wary of appearing anti-business, improving its odds of passage in 2027 compared to the more blunt original SB 1488. BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to YES is Sacchieri (possibly with Chapman's House-side study lending cover) refiling a revised, better-vetted moratorium bill early in the 2027 session (convening ~February 2027), leveraging two completed 2026 interim studies, continuing water/utility rate grievances, and a wave of local moratoria creating political momentum for a uniform statewide rule — with enough runway (Feb–Dec 2027) for the bill to clear committee, both chambers, and receive a gubernatorial signature before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No confirmation that Sacchieri or any other legislator has yet pre-filed a specific 2027-session bill number; no statement from Gov. Stitt indicating he would sign a statewide moratorium if passed; no public polling on Oklahoma voter support for a statewide ban; results of the October 30, 2026 interim-study deadline outcomes (recommendations) were not yet available in search results.

report: no case

YES means: Oklahoma enacts a statewide statutory or constitutional data-center moratorium (law prohibiting/suspending approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or of all facilities >100MW, by default) between Sept 29, 2026 and Dec 31, 2027. This dimension argues the strongest case for NO. - [2026-05-14] Oklahoma's only serious statewide moratorium vehicle, SB 1488 (Sacchieri), never got a committee hearing and died unvoted at sine-die adjournment, despite being filed under a Republican trifecta with veto-proof majorities in both chambers (81-20 House, 40-8 Senate) — i.e., the bill failed to even reach the stage where governor opposition would matter. https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/, https://ballotpedia.org/2026_Oklahoma_legislative_session - [2026-02-20] Sacchieri herself confirmed her legislation has not been put on the floor for a vote , with no Republican leadership (Speaker Hilbert, Senate Pro Tem Paxton) ever publicly backing the construction ban itself, only narrower measures. - [2026-09-29] At the most recent interim study, the lead regulator on this topic, Rep. Mark Chapman (R-Broken Arrow), explicitly framed the state's direction around nuance rather than bans, saying lawmakers " need to look at the issue from multiple perspectives and figure out how to be as fair as possible to both data centers and Oklahomans " and warning against "one-size-fits-all" solutions — language structurally opposed to a blanket moratorium. - [2026-09-29] The same study highlighted testimony from utilities (OG&E, PSO) and local officials (Pryor's mayor) stressing data centers as net ratepayer and economic benefits when "responsibly connected," reinforcing industry-aligned momentum against construction bans. https://oklahomavoice.com/2026/09/29/not-enough-data-or-expertise-oklahoma-lawmakers-consider-future-of-data-centers/ - [2026-09-27] Only days before the study, Lambda announced a new data center at MidAmerica Industrial Park with Gov. Stitt and Commerce CEO John Budd publicly celebrating it as a "vote of confidence," underscoring that the executive branch continues to actively court new data-center investment rather than signal support for a pause. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/09/state-and-local-leaders-stand-behind-proposed-chouteau-data-center/ - [2026-08-06] Stitt's own framing at the ceremonial signing of HB 2992/SB 259 emphasized " we welcome the free market to drive prosperity, and we have also set clear guardrails for large load customers to solve for their own power needs ," explicitly a free-market-plus-guardrails approach, not a moratorium philosophy — suggesting any 2027 bill reaching his desk would need to avoid an outright ban to get his signature. - [2026-03-13] National reporting on the broader 2026 wave found Oklahoma's bill " to create a moratorium on data center construction until November 2029...is in committee " alongside 13 other state bills, none of which passed their chamber of origin by any point in 2026, indicating the structural difficulty of passing true moratorium language even when industry backlash is salient nationally. - [2026-xx] Procedurally, the 2027 session's own legislative calendar (bill-request deadline Dec. 4, 2026; introduction deadline Jan. 14, 2027; sine die May 28, 2027) means any new moratorium bill would need to be filed, survive committee, pass both chambers, and be signed well before the Dec. 31, 2027 deadline — the same compressed window SB 1488 failed to clear in 2026. https://www.okhouse.gov/leg_deadlines - [2026-xx] As of the Sept. 29 study, no new 2027-session statewide moratorium bill had been filed or even flagged by any legislator; the only identified industry-watch commentary (Foley law firm) noted stakeholders are merely " carefully monitoring the 2027 Legislative session to see if a similar bill is introduced next year ," indicating speculative rather than confirmed legislative intent. - [2026-xx] Oklahoma's 2026 session instead channeled regulatory energy into narrower, non-moratorium fixes (HB 2992 ratepayer protections, SB 259 groundwater/cooling rules, pre-existing SB 480 behind-the-meter authority) that explicitly let development continue while adding conditions — the opposite structure of a default-prohibition moratorium, and the trend lawmakers have continued discussing as of Sept. 2026 rather than reviving a ban. - [2026-xx] Nationally, even the most advanced 2026 state moratorium effort (New York's bill, passed both chambers 44-16 and 102-39) remained unsigned by Hochul as of late September 2026, with Hochul substituting a non-qualifying executive order instead — showing that even full legislative passage does not reliably convert into qualifying "enactment," a cautionary parallel for Oklahoma where the bill never even passed one chamber. BOTTOM LINE: Every structural signal — a dead 2026 bill that never got a vote despite a veto-proof GOP trifecta, explicit anti-"one-size-fits-all" rhetoric from the lead regulator in the Sept. 29, 2026 interim study, a governor and Commerce Department actively courting new data-center investment, a compressed 2027 legislative calendar, and a national pattern in which zero states enacted a statutory moratorium even at the 2026 "high-water mark" — points to continued NO through Dec. 31, 2027. NOT FOUND: No confirmed bill-request or pre-filing for a 2027-session statewide Oklahoma moratorium bill as of Oct. 1, 2026 (pre-filing opens Nov. 15, 2026); no statement from Sacchieri or any legislator about refiling SB 1488 or similar language for 2027; no gubernatorial or legislative-leadership statement opposing or supporting a future statewide moratorium specifically.

3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean · re-drawn after crux research

crux research

The first round disagreed: the draws' mean 0.18 sits 0.17 from the same-question market "this polymarket market" at 0.34. One more research loop went after the crux and every draw below was redone with its report.

first-round draws: 16%, 14%, 13%, 23%, 22% · crux loop: 3 searches, 1 page reads

report: crux

CRUX: The decisive fact is whether SB 1488 (Oklahoma's only statewide 100MW+ moratorium bill) is dead and whether Sen. Sacchieri's 2026 interim study is likely to produce a revived, passable moratorium bill in the 2027 session, versus the legislature's demonstrated preference for conditional regulation (ratepayer/water rules) over outright bans. - **Jan 22, 2026**: Sen. Kendal Sacchieri (R-Blanchard) filed SB 1488, which would have established a moratorium, meaning a temporary halt, on building or establishing "data centers" in Oklahoma until November 1, 2029, with data center defined as a facility handling 100 megawatts or more . - **By session end (sine die, mid-May 2026)**: SB 1488 failed to get support for any votes in the Senate or House; it did not pass out of committee and died during the legislative session . - **Aug 6, 2026**: Instead of a moratorium, Gov. Stitt ceremonially signed two conditional-regulation bills — House Bill 2992, the Data Center Customer Ratepayer Protection Act, and Senate Bill 259, the Groundwater Modernization Act — with Stitt stating "In Oklahoma, we welcome the free market to drive prosperity, and we have also set clear guardrails for large load customers to solve for their own power needs" , signaling the governor's preference against outright bans. - **Jul 2026**: Rather than refiling a bill immediately, Sacchieri pivoted to an interim study — Senate President Lonnie Paxton approved her interim study request titled "Data Centers and what all they mean for our state," to be conducted in the Agriculture and Wildlife Committee . - **Sept 29, 2026**: The House companion interim study, led by Rep. Mark Chapman, concluded with Chapman cautioning against bans — he said lawmakers should remember "as with most things, the truth may fall somewhere in the middle" and framed the goal as finding safeguards rather than a blanket halt, saying he would review findings to determine if "additional legislative action is warranted" . - **Sept 30, 2026 tracker**: An independent tracker confirms Oklahoma's status as "Active" with "Statewide action: None" and "SB 1488: died" , with only local/tribal bans in effect. - **No 2027 bill filed yet**: As of Oct 1, 2026, no successor moratorium bill has been pre-filed; pre-filing for the 2027 session does not open until mid-November 2026, and Sacchieri has said she hopes the interim study will help "get a better piece of legislation ready for next session" rather than confirming a renewed moratorium bill is ready. - **Local vs. statewide pattern**: Multiple cities (Oklahoma City, effective only until either December 31, 2026, or earlier , Edmond, Norman) and the Cherokee/Seminole Nations have enacted local/tribal pauses, but none qualify under the resolution criteria, and no entity with statewide authority has moved to replicate them. BOTTOM LINE: The evidence strongly favors "No." SB 1488 died without even a committee vote, the legislature's actual enacted output in 2026 was conditional regulation (ratepayer and groundwater rules) rather than a ban, Governor Stitt has publicly championed a "free market" approach, and the key legislative leaders overseeing fall 2026 interim studies (Chapman) are explicitly steering toward tailored safeguards rather than a statewide moratorium. No replacement bill has yet been filed for the 2027 session, which is the only realistic window before the December 31, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No information on 2026 gubernatorial election outcome's effect on data-center policy (Stitt is term-limited, but no confirmation found here of the winner's stance); no confirmation that Sacchieri or any legislator has committed to refiling a moratorium bill for 2027; no evidence of legislative leadership (Senate President Paxton, House Speaker) expressing support for a statewide ban.

claude-opus-5-5

60% conf

Yes	15%
No	85%

(0) Nothing shows the condition met. The resolution-source read and the Sept 30, 2026 tracker both report no statewide action, and SB 1488 is recorded as dead. Only local bans (OKC, Norman, Edmond) and tribal bans (Cherokee Nation) exist, and neither kind qualifies. (a) About 15 months remain, but the only realistic window is the 2027 regular session (roughly Feb to May 28, 2027) plus any special session. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no statewide moratorium is enacted. (c) No scenario: Sacchieri refiles a moratorium, but it again stalls in committee under GOP leadership. That leadership prefers conditional rules like HB 2992 ratepayer protections and SB 259 groundwater limits, Chapman has publicly rejected 'one-size-fits-all' bans, and the executive branch keeps courting projects such as Lambda at MidAmerica. (d) Yes scenario: Sacchieri's interim study yields a revised bill covering 100MW+ facilities. Local-ban sprawl and anger over water and rates push leadership to pass it, and a new governor (Stitt is term-limited) signs it. The market sits at 34.5% but fell 11 points in three days. The research suggests it overprices this: SB 1488 never got a hearing despite a GOP supermajority, no state has enacted a statutory moratorium even at the 2026 peak, and New York's passed bill was replaced by an executive order. I keep some weight on Yes for national momentum, the governor transition, and the long window. I fade to about 15%.

claude-opus-5-5

60% conf

Yes	17%
No	83%

(0) Nothing has resolved this yet. The Sept 30, 2026 tracker lists Oklahoma's statewide action as "None" and SB 1488 as died. The only bans in force are local (OKC, Norman, Edmond) or tribal (Cherokee Nation), and the rules exclude both. (a) About 15 months remain. In practice the window is the 2027 regular session (February to late May 2027), plus any special session. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No. Lawmakers' 2026 output was conditional regulation: HB 2992 on ratepayer protection and SB 259 on groundwater cooling. Gov. Stitt framed this as "free market plus guardrails" and is actively courting new data centers such as Lambda at MidAmerica. At the Sept 29 interim study, Rep. Chapman explicitly warned against one-size-fits-all bans. (c) NO scenario: Sacchieri refiles a revised moratorium bill after her interim study. Leadership again declines to give it a hearing, or it gets watered down into conditional siting or interconnection rules that don't count as a default prohibition. (d) YES scenario: growing red-state momentum makes a statewide pause politically attractive, in a session with a new post-Stitt governor. Texas's governor ordering a permit halt in Sept 2026 is one sign of that momentum. A 100MW+ pause bill could then pass a supermajority GOP legislature and be signed. The market at 34.5% (down from 45%) looks too high to me. SB 1488 never got even a committee vote under the same leadership, and no successor bill has been flagged. No state has enacted a statutory moratorium even at the 2026 peak; New York's passed bill was swapped for a non-qualifying executive order. I keep meaningful weight on Yes because of the fast-moving politics, the new governor, and Sacchieri's stated intent to refile.

claude-opus-5-5

55% conf

Yes	20%
No	80%

(0) Not met: trackers (Sept 18/30, 2026) show 'Statewide action: None'; SB 1488 died without a committee vote at sine die May 14, 2026; local bans (OKC, Norman) and tribal bans (Cherokee) don't qualify. (a) ~15 months remain; the realistic window is the 2027 regular session (introduction deadline Jan 14, sine die May 28, 2027), with special session or ballot measure remote. (b) Status quo is No; no successor bill is pre-filed (pre-filing opens mid-November). (c) No: legislature continues its 2026 pattern of conditional regulation (HB 2992 ratepayer rules, SB 259 groundwater limits); Rep. Chapman's Sept 29 interim study rejected 'one-size-fits-all' bans; Stitt/Commerce keep courting projects like Lambda; a revived bill dies in committee. (d) Yes: Sacchieri refiles a refined 100MW+ pause using her Senate interim study; local-ban pressure and red-state momentum (e.g., Texas's executive moratorium) push it through both chambers; the new governor (Stitt term-limited, successor's stance unknown) signs by May 2027. The market at 34.5% (down 11 pts in 3 days) roughly tracks sibling Ohio/Texas/Indiana markets (~30-33%), suggesting it prices generic national momentum. Oklahoma-specific evidence (zero votes for the 2026 bill, no statutory moratorium enacted anywhere nationally, anti-ban lead House legislator) argues lower. I keep meaningful weight on Yes for the unknown new governor, intent to refile, and national momentum.

gpt-5.6-sol

73% conf

Yes	22%
No	78%

(0) The condition has not already been met: Oklahoma’s official legislative pages supplied no qualifying enactment, while the September 30 tracker says statewide action is “None” and SB 1488 died; local, tribal, water-use, and ratepayer measures do not satisfy the rules. (a) Roughly 15 months remain until December 31, 2027, but the realistic opportunity is the 2027 regular session, expected to end May 28, so a bill must be introduced, clear both chambers, and become law within that compressed window. (b) If nothing changes, the outcome is No because there is currently no qualifying bill pending and existing measures permit development subject to targeted safeguards. (c) No results if lawmakers continue their demonstrated preference for ratepayer, groundwater, and permitting rules, especially given SB 1488’s failure to receive even a committee vote and Governor Stitt’s September support for new investment and free-market development. (d) Yes could result if Sen. Sacchieri uses the approved interim study to refile a revised moratorium covering facilities of at least 100 MW, with widespread local opposition supplying enough pressure for passage and enactment in 2027. I price Yes below Polymarket’s 34.5% anchor because the specific evidence is unusually adverse: the prior qualifying bill died without a vote, no successor is confirmed, Rep. Chapman opposed a one-size-fits-all approach, and no state had enacted a comparable statutory moratorium during the 2026 wave. I retain 22% for renewed legislation, escalating utility or water concerns, and uncertainty surrounding Oklahoma’s post-2026 political leadership.

gpt-5.6-sol

74% conf

Yes	19%
No	81%

(0) The condition has not already been met: Oklahoma's official-site fetch found no qualifying law, while the September 30 tracker reports statewide action as none and SB 1488 as dead; a new statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium must therefore be enacted by December 31, 2027. (a) Roughly 15 months remain, but the principal opportunity is the compressed 2027 regular session, expected to run from February through May 28. (b) If nothing changes, the outcome is No because existing state laws regulate rates and groundwater use, while municipal and tribal moratoriums do not qualify. (c) No results if lawmakers continue their demonstrated preference for targeted safeguards, legislative leaders withhold support from a renewed moratorium, or the governor rejects a blanket pause; SB 1488's failure to receive even a committee vote and Gov. Stitt's free-market rhetoric support this path. (d) Yes could result if Sen. Sacchieri converts her approved interim study and ready-made 100-MW threshold language into a stronger 2027 bill, with widespread local moratoriums and water or ratepayer concerns generating enough pressure for passage and enactment. I price Yes at 19%, below Polymarket's 34.5% anchor, because the market appears to underweight the dead bill, zero statewide statutory enactments in the national 2026 reference class, and Oklahoma's explicit movement toward conditional regulation, while retaining meaningful probability for a post-study revival and uncertain 2027 political leadership.

4. Final plain mean of 5 draws · second round

19% (64% confidence)

Yes: 19% No: 81%

Mean of 5 draws (0.15, 0.17, 0.20, 0.22, 0.19) after one crux research pass. (0) Nothing shows the condition met. The resolution-source read and the Sept 30, 2026 tracker both report no statewide action, and SB 1488 is recorded as dead. Only local bans (OKC, Norman, Edmond) and tribal bans (Cherokee Nation) exist, and neither kind qualifies. (a) About 15 months remain, but the only realistic window is the 2027 regular session (roughly Feb to May 28, 2027) plus any special session. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no statewide moratorium is enacted. (c) No scenario: Sacchieri refiles a moratorium, but it again stalls in committee under GOP leadership. That leadership prefers conditional rules like HB 2992 ratepayer protections and SB 259 groundwater limits, Chapman has publicly rejected 'one-size-fits-all' bans, and the executive branch keeps courting projects such as Lambda at MidAmerica. (d) Yes scenario: Sacchieri's interim study yields a revised bill covering 100MW+ facilities. Local-ban sprawl and anger over water and rates push leadership to pass it, and a new governor (Stitt is term-limited) signs it. The market sits at 34.5% but fell 11 points in three days. The research suggests it overprices this: SB 1488 never got a hearing despite a GOP supermajority, no state has enacted a statutory moratorium even at the 2026 peak, and New York's passed bill was replaced by an executive order. I keep some weight on Yes for national momentum, the governor transition, and the long window. I fade to about 15%.

5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader

Side

no

Position Size

$1,000

Contracts

1515

Trader Confidence

64%

Trade rationale

The bot puts YES at 18.6% against a market price of 34.5%, a 15.9pp edge. Both see NO as the more likely outcome, so this bets with the 65.5% favourite, the book's profitable type (23/5 closed). The case rests on specific facts I checked. SB 1488 never got a committee or floor vote and died on May 14. A tracker as of late September still shows no statewide action in Oklahoma. The only bans are local or tribal ones (OKC, Edmond, Cherokee and Seminole Nations), which don't count. The rules for the related any-state market cover only enacted statewide legislation and exclude executive orders. The Oklahoma market very likely uses the same rules, so even if a governor copies Texas's Abbott, who halted data center permits by executive order, that wouldn't resolve YES. The only real path is the 2027 session, under a GOP supermajority whose leaders have publicly rejected blanket bans. The five forecasts are close together (15-22%, 7pp spread) and confidence is a moderate 0.64.

Allocation logic

The edge and the with-favourite setup would normally justify going above the $1000 baseline. I'm holding at $1000 because the book already holds NO on data center moratoriums in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri ($2,900 total), and a national wave of moratoriums would move all four together. The 15-month horizon also includes a session with a new governor that could reprice the market. I didn't check order-book depth, but the $0.01 spread suggests $1000 fills without much slippage.

Entry price: $0.66

Current: $0.80

Status: OPEN

P&L: $190.95

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 119.4s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.