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Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

polymarketScience and Technology·2026-09-30·view on polymarket ↗
14%
Agent
28%
Market Price
-14.4%
Edge
66%
Confidence
45,162
Volume
2.0c
Spread
457
Days to resolution
3
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.08, 0.09, 0.10, 0.21, 0.20). (0) No statewide moratorium is enacted; trackers as of 2026-09-28 show only local pauses and HEA 1210 (revenue sharing). (a) About 15 months remain, with the Jan–Apr 2027 session the only realistic window. (b) Status quo is No: no pre-filed bill or leadership backing. (c) No: GOP supermajorities let bills die again as in 2026, and Braun keeps courting hyperscalers and calls moratoria a local matter. (d) Yes: CAC's statewide campaign, 25+ local moratoria and red-state precedents like Texas push a suspend-until-study bill through by April 2027. The 28% price comes from a two-day-old, thin market already falling from 53.5%, with sibling contracts also inflated; only Maine has a statutory statewide moratorium, so I fade the market with some tail for shifting politics.
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
18 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search
Planner reasoning
Polymarket question, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor, and resolution_source points at the Indiana General Assembly. Related markets on other states' data center moratoriums, on both venues, give cross-market base rates. One targeted search checks whether any Indiana moratorium bill has been filed or pre-filed for the 2027 session.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 28.00% (live; bid 27% / ask 29%) - 7-day price change: -25.50% - 30-day price change: -25.50% - Total volume: $45,162 (USD notional) - Price range: 28.00% - 53.50% - Data points: 2 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Indiana General Assembly's 2027 bills index landing page with no substantive text about any data center moratorium legislation or its status. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok - article_search: Fetched 13 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Indiana legislator bill data center moratorium 2027 session filed': 8 articles | 'Indiana General Assembly data center pause bill': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: As of Sept. 30, 2026, Indiana has enacted no statewide data center moratorium; the 2026 session produced only a narrow local-revenue-sharing law (HEA 1210) while multiple moratorium-style bills died, and the current wave of restrictions is exclusively local/county-level with Governor Braun explicitly resisting state-level mandates — leaving the 2027 legislative session (Jan.–~Apr. 2027) as the sole realistic vehicle for a "Yes" resolution before Dec. 31, 2027. - base rate: Nationally, only two states (Maine via statute, New York via executive order rather than statute) have imposed anything resembling a statewide data center moratorium as of late 2026, and Indiana's own 2026 legislative session saw a moratorium-adjacent bill (HB 1333) die in committee while only a narrower revenue-sharing bill (HB 1210) was enacted — with all substantive Indiana moratorium activity occurring at the city/county level (31+ local measures). This base rate implies a statewide Indiana - yes case: The strongest path to YES is CAC and allied groups converting their explicit, ongoing statewide-moratorium campaign and rising local-moratorium base (31 measures) into a bill during the Jan.–April 2027 budget session, riding the bipartisan energy-affordability momentum (HEA 1002/IURC inquiry) and a national wave of red-state statewide restrictions (California, Texas) that undercuts the "Indiana would never do this" assumption — but this requires an as-yet-unfiled bill to survive a GOP supermajor - no case: Every available signal — Governor Braun's economic-development messaging as recently as Sept. 28, 2026, the entrenched Republican supermajority that killed 2026's moratorium-adjacent bills, the explicit state-vs-local framing that treats moratoria as a county/city tool, and the fact that even the most aggressive states nationally have mostly used executive orders rather than statutes — points to continued NO: no statewide statutory moratorium is currently in motion, and the sole remaining legisl
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
polymarket_direct OK 0.3s 1 ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 28.00% (live; bid 27% / ask 29%) - 7-day price change: -25.50% - 30-day price change: -25.50% - Total volume: $45,162 (USD notional) - Price range: 28.00% - 53.50% -
resolution_source OK 2.6s 1 already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Indiana General Assembly's 2027 bills index landing page with no substantive text about any data center moratorium legislation or its status.
polymarket_related OK 0.4s 10 Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets
kalshi_related OK 0.6s 1 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
article_search OK 0.5s 13 Fetched 13 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Indiana legislator bill data center moratorium 2027 session filed': 8 articles | 'Indiana General Assembly data center pause bill': 8 articles
research loops · 4/4 ok · 16 searches · 5 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 35s 4 2 5591 chars
base rate OK 36s 3 2 5679 chars
yes case OK 51s 5 1 6851 chars
no case SNIPPETS 37s 4 0 6684 chars · no page read; snippets only
report: current state
- [2026-02-27] Indiana's 2026 legislative session adjourned without enacting any statewide data center moratorium; nearly a dozen bills addressing data centers (HB 1245, SB 79, SB 234, SB 257, HB 1043, HB 1189, HB 1297, HB 1104, HB 1225) died in committee or failed to advance, and the session's only enacted data-center-specific law was "only the narrow HEA 1210 local-share provision became law; proposals to condition incentives on labor standards or address broader tax, water, and ratepayer costs did not pass" (https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/). - [2026-02-XX] "Indiana HB 1333 passed the House 54-45 (February 2026) but stalled in the Senate Utilities Committee; the controversial 'permitted use' farmland provision was explicitly rejected." Its revenue-sharing piece was folded into HB 1210, which became law, but the bill did not create any moratorium (https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana). - [2026-03-12] HEA 1210 (Public Law 157) was signed and took effect July 1, 2026; it created a local revenue-sharing mechanism for host counties/municipalities but "it did not impose a moratorium or repeal the underlying exemption" (https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/). - [2026-07-17] A dedicated policy tracker confirmed: "No statewide data-center moratorium as of July 17, 2026: The General Assembly did not enact the statewide moratorium, water-permitting, electricity-reporting, or data-center-specific ratepayer-protection proposals introduced in 2026" (https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/). - [2026-08-10/19] Indianapolis/Marion County enacted a binding local (not statewide) moratorium on new data-center approvals through Dec. 31, 2027, via City-County Council vote (23-1) and Metropolitan Development Commission ratification; "The Indianapolis pause became binding on August 10, 2026, when the City-County Council voted 23-1 to bar new data center construction in Marion County through the end of 2027" (https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana). - [2026-09-09] Reporting on the broader Midwest backlash noted Indiana Governor Mike Braun's position: "The governor 'encourages locals to evaluate whether tax abatements are necessary because the companies already want to be in a state like Indiana,' but the state is not there to 'tell local communities what to do,'" per his press secretary — signaling no gubernatorial push for a statewide moratorium (https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk). - [2026-09-21] Zionsville's Town Council approved a one-year local moratorium covering data centers (plus solar, wind, battery storage), and Owen County commissioners approved a similar one-year local moratorium on 2026-09-22 — both local, not statewide (https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana). - [2026-09-23 (delayed to 2026-10-13)] Fort Wayne's city council vote on a proposed one-year local pause on data-center actions was delayed to October 13, 2026 amid amendments — another local (not statewide) measure pending (https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana). - [2026-09-28] A statewide moratorium tracker (last updated 2026-09-28) lists Indiana's status as having "10 active bans" and "15 of 92 counties (16%)" with local restrictions, but lists no enacted statewide moratorium law; the only two state-level bills tracked (HB 1333 and HB 1210) are marked "Failed" and "Enacted" respectively, with HB 1210 containing no moratorium provision (https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana). - [2026-09-XX] A cross-state tracker snapshot (about 2 weeks old) counted "Indiana has 2 state-level data-center restrictions in force. 31 city and county measures are tracked here, 26 of them in force," and separately noted "Most of the movement is local, where a building pause or permit halt does not need a legislative session" — implying state-level statutory action remains limited relative to the flood of local ordinances (https://savrn.com/data-center-moratorium-tracker/indiana). - [2026 general] Indiana's General Assembly runs a short (non-budget) session in even years, which already adjourned Feb. 27, 2026; the next regular session is the 2027 long/budget session, expected to convene in January 2027 and adjourn by late April 2027 — the only realistic legislative window left before the market's Dec. 31, 2027 deadline for a statewide bill to be introduced, pass both chambers, and be signed. - [2026-09-30 present] No pending statewide moratorium bill, executive order proposal, or ballot measure was found in current reporting; all identifiable moratorium activity in Indiana as of the report date is at the county or municipal level (e.g., Indianapolis/Marion County, Elkhart, Zionsville, Owen County, Fort Wayne pending), none of which independently satisfies a "statewide" resolution criterion. BOTTOM LINE: As of Sept. 30, 2026, Indiana has enacted no statewide data center moratorium; the 2026 session produced only a narrow local-revenue-sharing law (HEA 1210) while multiple moratorium-style bills died, and the current wave of restrictions is exclusively local/county-level with Governor Braun explicitly resisting state-level mandates — leaving the 2027 legislative session (Jan.–~Apr. 2027) as the sole realistic vehicle for a "Yes" resolution before Dec. 31, 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any pre-filed or announced statewide moratorium bill for the 2027 Indiana General Assembly session, and no statement from legislative leadership (House Speaker, Senate President Pro Tem) indicating intent to pursue a statewide moratorium in 2027.
report: base rate
- [2026-04-13] As of early 2026, Maine became the first state to pass a statewide data center moratorium into law, banning facilities over 20 megawatts until November 2027 , showing statewide moratoria are rare but not unprecedented nationally. https://www.theaiconsultingnetwork.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-bills-states-cre-investors-2026 - [2026-07-01] New York followed as a second case: the New York State Legislature passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act, imposing a one-year moratorium on state permits for new large data centers, clearing the Senate 44–16 and the Assembly 102-39 on June 4, 2026 , but Governor Hochul did not sign the bill and instead signed a narrower Executive Order No. 62 on July 14, 2026, creating a one-year moratorium — an executive order, not a statute (would not itself qualify under this contract's enactment rules). https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/using-temporary-pauses-to-develop-permanent-regulation - [2026-09-01] Across the country, state-level moratorium bills have been introduced in 11 states in 2026 but face resistance, with dozens of municipalities instead moving ahead with local construction pauses, shifting the center of gravity toward local government action . This indicates that even where introduced, statewide bills have a low pass rate relative to local ordinances. https://www.multistate.us/resources/state-data-center-policy-101 - [2026-07-17] Indiana's own legislative track record: the General Assembly did not enact the statewide moratorium, water-permitting, electricity-reporting, or data-center-specific ratepayer-protection proposals introduced in 2026 . https://servercountry.org/policy/indiana/ - [2026-09-01] Detailed bill tracking confirms Indiana HB 1333 passed the House 54-45 in February 2026 but stalled in the Senate Utilities Committee; the controversial 'permitted use' farmland provision was explicitly rejected, and only the core 1% revenue-sharing provision was folded into HB 1210, which was enacted into law — a revenue-sharing measure, not a moratorium. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/indiana - [2026-09-01] A separate tracker corroborates that Indiana's only enacted state-level measures are revenue/tax related: a moratorium was defined as a legally binding instrument that suspends acceptance, processing, or approval of data center applications... laws involving tax incentive pauses and rollbacks, cost-allocation and rate-class laws, individual project denials were not counted as moratoria , and Indiana's enacted bills (HB 1210/HEA 1210) fall in the excluded category. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-09-01] Base-rate context on the scale of local action versus state action in Indiana: Indiana has 3 state-level measures and 31 local measures tracked, with only 2 state-level measures in force — meaning nearly all Indiana restrictions to date are local ordinances/moratoria (city or county), not statewide law. https://savrn.com/data-center-moratorium-tracker/indiana - [2026-07-06] Reflecting the same local-vs-state pattern, Indiana University's Environmental Resilience Institute identified 11 Indiana counties with data center ordinances, at least 17 with temporary moratoriums, and two — Marshall and Cass — that have banned new data centers altogether , all sub-state actions. https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-07-06/indiana-counties-data-center-moratoriums-bans-2026 - [2026-08-19] Advocacy groups explicitly frame local wins (e.g., Indianapolis's binding moratorium through 2027) as only "half time," implying a statewide moratorium remains a distinct, unachieved goal even after significant local momentum: Citizens Action Coalition, a group calling for a statewide moratorium, said "we also realize this is essentially half time... there's a lot of work to be done around getting good guardrails around these data center projects" . https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team/mdc-approves-data-center-moratorium/ - [2026-09-30] No news, tracker, or legislative filing found indicating any pending Indiana state bill for the 2027 session (which convenes in January 2027, a "long" budget session year) that proposes a binding statewide data center moratorium; state political leadership (Gov. Braun) has to date backed data center development rather than restriction, per multiple sources describing Indiana's economic-development posture toward hyperscale projects. https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-07-06/indiana-counties-data-center-moratoriums-bans-2026 BOTTOM LINE: Nationally, only two states (Maine via statute, New York via executive order rather than statute) have imposed anything resembling a statewide data center moratorium as of late 2026, and Indiana's own 2026 legislative session saw a moratorium-adjacent bill (HB 1333) die in committee while only a narrower revenue-sharing bill (HB 1210) was enacted — with all substantive Indiana moratorium activity occurring at the city/county level (31+ local measures). This base rate implies a statewide Indiana moratorium enacted via the legislature by end of 2027, while not impossible given rising local pressure and national precedent, would be a low-probability, first-of-its-kind event for the state, requiring a currently unannounced bill to pass both chambers and be signed in the 2027 session. NOT FOUND: No specific pre-filed or drafted statewide Indiana moratorium bill for the 2027 legislative session; no statement from Gov. Mike Braun or legislative leadership on intent to pursue a statewide moratorium; no polling or formal odds/forecasts (beyond this market) on Indiana statewide moratorium passage.
report: yes case
YES means: The Indiana General Assembly passes, and Governor Braun signs (or allows to become law without signature), a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium that generally halts approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation of new data centers (or of all facilities above 100 MW) somewhere between Sept. 29, 2026 and Dec. 31, 2027 — realistically only during the Jan.–April 2027 "long" budget session. - [2026-09-28] A live national tracker shows Indiana as one of "27 of 50 states restricting or considering restrictions," with the same tracker's "AI Overview" reporting the week of Sept. 21-28, 2026 as "the sharpest escalation yet in statewide action on data centers, coming simultaneously from both parties' flagship states," as California enacted a seven-bill statewide package and Texas's governor ordered a statewide permitting freeze — demonstrating that Republican-led "red" states are now willing to impose binding statewide restrictions, undercutting the assumption that Indiana's GOP trifecta would never do so (https://www.datacenterbans.com/). - [2026-09-08] The same source notes Massachusetts Gov. Healey's Sept. 8 order plus California and Texas mean "three of the country's largest economies now impose statewide restrictions by law or executive action" — showing the statewide-restriction trend is broadening beyond Maine/New York just as Indiana's 2027 session approaches (https://www.datacenterbans.com/). - [2026-09-01 update] Citizens Action Coalition (CAC), Indiana's largest consumer/environmental advocacy group, runs an active campaign whose site states: "Tell your state legislators to pass a statewide moratorium on AI data centers in Indiana." This is an ongoing, organized lobbying vehicle explicitly targeting the 2027 legislature, not just local councils (https://www.citact.org/). - [2024-10-15, still cited by CAC] CAC's formal ask is that the Indiana General Assembly enact "a moratorium on new 'hyperscaler' data centers used to power artificial intelligence and commence a task force to study what policies should be adopted prior to lifting the moratorium" — a template moratorium bill design (suspend-until-condition) that would satisfy this contract's "mandatory suspension" language if introduced and passed (https://www.citact.org/news/cac-calls-data-center-moratorium). - [2026-08-19] Indianapolis's own MDC vote was framed by CAC's Bryce Gustafson as only partial progress: "we also realize this is essentially half time. There's a lot of work to be done around getting good guardrails around these data center projects," signaling explicit intent to escalate to the state level next (https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team/mdc-approves-data-center-moratorium/). - [2026-09-XX] The savrn.com tracker shows Indiana's local moratorium count has grown to "2 state-level data-center restrictions in force. 31 city and county measures are tracked here, 26 of them in force" — a critical mass of local action (now spanning 15+ counties/cities including Marion, Boone, Elkhart, Zionsville, Owen, Franklin, Madison, Jeffersonville) that increases pressure on legislators to standardize rules statewide rather than leave a patchwork, a classic driver of state preemption-style or uniform moratorium bills (https://savrn.com/data-center-moratorium-tracker/indiana). - [2026-02-XX] Even in the hostile 2026 session, HB 1333's data-center-friendly "permitted use" farmland provision was rejected and the bill's sponsor Sen. Eric Koch admitted the provision would "'not move forward'" after backlash — showing that legislative appetite for expanding, not just restricting, data centers is already constrained, and the pro-industry wing lost that fight (https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/data-center-legislation-indiana-general-assembly-2026). - [2026-07-15] The IURC's Investigative Inquiry on Energy Affordability report — a bipartisan, legislature-triggered process stemming from HEA 1002 (2026) — explicitly built in "considerations for the Indiana General Assembly" on future affordability measures, and Utility Dive reported the report "urges utilities to explain to their customers how data centers can help reduce electric rates" — showing data-center cost impacts are already an active, bipartisan 2027 legislative agenda item, giving a moratorium bill a plausible vehicle (rate-affordability) distinct from the failed 2026 environmental-framing bills (https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/07/15/regulators-release-action-items-address-energy-affordability-indiana/; https://www.utilitydive.com/news/indiana-urc-affordability-utility-roe-tracker/825409/). - [2026-05-22] CAC's executive director Kerwin Olson, on the same affordability push that produced HEA 1002 (authored by Republicans), said he's "seeing the tide shift" — direct testimony from the state's leading moratorium advocate that historically hostile GOP legislators are increasingly receptive to consumer-protection framing that could be extended to a data-center pause (https://www.ipm.org/news/2026-05-22/statehouse-push-for-affordable-power-collides-with-data-center-growth). - [2026 general] The next Indiana General Assembly session is confirmed to "begin the first full week of January 2027 and run through late April" — a real, near-term legislative window squarely inside the Dec. 31, 2027 deadline, unlike the short 2026 session that already elapsed (https://indybar.org/billwatch). - [2026-03-04] Legislative leaders (Gov. Braun, Senate Pro Tem Bray) are already previewing 2027 priorities in areas like social media and CDL reform, showing an active pre-session agenda-setting process is underway in which moratorium advocates could still insert a data-center item before or during the November interim study sessions (https://www.wane.com/top-stories/indiana-governor-mike-braun-other-lawmakers-preview-2027-legislative-session-priorities/). BOTTOM LINE: The strongest path to YES is CAC and allied groups converting their explicit, ongoing statewide-moratorium campaign and rising local-moratorium base (31 measures) into a bill during the Jan.–April 2027 budget session, riding the bipartisan energy-affordability momentum (HEA 1002/IURC inquiry) and a national wave of red-state statewide restrictions (California, Texas) that undercuts the "Indiana would never do this" assumption — but this requires an as-yet-unfiled bill to survive a GOP supermajority that just weeks ago (Feb. 2026) let comparable measures die. NOT FOUND: No confirmed pre-filed 2027 statewide moratorium bill text, bill number, or sponsor; no statement from House Speaker Todd Huston, Senate Pro Tem Bray, or Gov. Braun specifically addressing a statewide data-center moratorium (as opposed to affordability/rate measures) for 2027; no polling on Hoosier voter support for a statewide (vs. local) moratorium.
report: no case
YES means: Indiana's General Assembly passes, and the Governor signs (or otherwise enacts under Indiana law), a statewide statute or constitutional provision that mandatorily prohibits or suspends approval/permitting/construction/interconnection/operation of all new data centers (or all new data centers above 100 MW) by Dec. 31, 2027. - [2026-09-28] Governor Braun continues to actively court hyperscale investment rather than restrict it, telling reporters Monday that if AI leaders like NVIDIA build in Indiana "Whatever they're [NVIDIA] doing, they're going to be looking at Indiana to be a place to do it, and we're working with all companies that are on the leading edge." This is the most recent gubernatorial signal available, and it is expansionary, not restrictive. https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-09-28/iedc-boasts-businesses-moving-to-indiana-eyes-supercomputer-and-space-academy - [2026-09-28] Braun's stated conditions for data centers remain narrowly about local abatements and self-generated power, not a moratorium: "If you want a data center in this state, quit asking local governments for any abatements," he said. "Show how you're going to improve the community, build the electricity you're going to need, and put more electrons onto the grid." https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-09-28/iedc-boasts-businesses-moving-to-indiana-eyes-supercomputer-and-space-academy - [2026-09-09] The Governor's office explicitly frames data-center oversight as a local, not state, prerogative: press secretary Griffin Reid said the state is not there to "tell local communities what to do" — the opposite of the state action a "Yes" resolution requires. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk - [2026-09-09] The same reporting quantifies the current substitute for state action: "Twenty-five of Indiana's 92 counties have data center moratoriums" — a level of local activity that arguably reduces political pressure for state legislators to duplicate the effort statewide, since affected communities already have a local remedy. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/indiana-counties-response-to-data-centers-reflects-broader-political-risk - [2026 general] The Indiana Senate and House are both held by durable Republican supermajorities (Senate 40-10, House 70-30 per the current chamber composition), the same governing majority that let HB 1333's moratorium-adjacent "permitted use" provision die in the Senate Utilities Committee in 2026 and let none of the ~10 other data-center bills advance; this legislative math does not change materially for the 2027 long session. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_General_Assembly - [2026-09-22] Even where a candidate explicitly calls for a moratorium, it is coming from Democratic challengers in swing districts (e.g., WFYI's Senate District 22 voter guide, where the Democratic challenger states "We need a data center moratorium in place so we can further student the economic and environmental impacts they have in states and communities" ), while the Republican incumbent (who will remain in the majority caucus regardless of outcome) is not reported taking that position — showing the moratorium demand is currently a minority-party talking point, not majority policy. https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-09-22/2026-voter-guide-indiana-senate-district-22 - [2025-12-11 precedent] Indiana's Republican supermajority has recently shown willingness to defy even a sitting President's priority (redistricting), with 21 Republicans voting no "The bill failed on December 11, 2025, after opposition votes came from 21 Republicans and all 10 Democrats" — demonstrating the caucus is not simply pro-business/pro-Trump on demand, but there is no analogous faction organizing for a data-center moratorium; the intra-party resistance seen on redistricting has not been replicated on data centers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Indiana_redistricting_attempt - [2026-07-28] Braun's other recent executive actions on data-center-adjacent energy policy have moved toward enabling more power supply for data centers (extending coal plants), not toward restricting data-center construction: "Braun's executive order directs the state's Secretary of Energy and Natural Resources to look for opportunities to reopen retired coal plants or prevent particular coal plants from retiring" — a supply-side, pro-growth posture inconsistent with an imminent moratorium push. https://www.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2026/07/gov-braun-s-executive-order-moves-throw-lifeline-coal-plants-power-data - [national context] Even where 2026 saw historic momentum, only Maine achieved an actual statutory statewide moratorium, while larger, more Democratic-leaning states like New York and Massachusetts settled for executive orders rather than legislation — underscoring how hard it is even in the most receptive states to pass a moratorium into law by statute, let alone in a Republican-supermajority, pro-development state like Indiana. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/using-temporary-pauses-to-develop-permanent-regulation - [mechanism] The only Indiana legislative session before the Dec. 31, 2027 deadline is the 2027 "long" budget session (Jan.–~Apr. 2027); no pre-filed statewide moratorium bill, leadership statement, or gubernatorial proposal for that session has surfaced as of Sept. 30, 2026, meaning a "Yes" resolution requires an entirely new bill to be drafted, introduced, survive committee (where similar 2026 bills died), pass both chambers, and be signed — all within roughly a four-month window, with no visible momentum yet. BOTTOM LINE: Every available signal — Governor Braun's economic-development messaging as recently as Sept. 28, 2026, the entrenched Republican supermajority that killed 2026's moratorium-adjacent bills, the explicit state-vs-local framing that treats moratoria as a county/city tool, and the fact that even the most aggressive states nationally have mostly used executive orders rather than statutes — points to continued NO: no statewide statutory moratorium is currently in motion, and the sole remaining legislative window (the 2027 session) has no pre-filed vehicle or leadership backing as of this report. NOT FOUND: No pre-filed or drafted 2027 Indiana statewide moratorium bill; no statement from Senate President Micah Beckwith, Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray, or House Speaker Todd Huston on data-center moratorium plans; no post-November-2026-election data on whether Democratic gains (if any) could erode the Republican supermajority enough to change legislative math for 2027.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
Yes 8%
No 92%
(0) No statewide moratorium is enacted; trackers as of 2026-09-28 show only local pauses and HEA 1210 (revenue sharing). (a) About 15 months remain, with the Jan–Apr 2027 session the only realistic window. (b) Status quo is No: no pre-filed bill or leadership backing. (c) No: GOP supermajorities let bills die again as in 2026, and Braun keeps courting hyperscalers and calls moratoria a local matter. (d) Yes: CAC's statewide campaign, 25+ local moratoria and red-state precedents like Texas push a suspend-until-study bill through by April 2027. The 28% price comes from a two-day-old, thin market already falling from 53.5%, with sibling contracts also inflated; only Maine has a statutory statewide moratorium, so I fade the market with some tail for shifting politics.
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
Yes 9%
No 91%
(0) Resolution check: no source shows a statewide statute enacted. Trackers updated through Sept. 28, 2026 list only HEA 1210, a local revenue-sharing law with no moratorium provision. HB 1333 and roughly ten other data center bills died in the 2026 session. (a) About 15 months remain, but the only realistic legislative window is the 2027 long session, January to late April 2027, barring a special session. (b) Status quo is No: action is entirely local (Indianapolis/Marion County, Zionsville, Owen County, about 25 counties), and local measures explicitly do not qualify. (c) No scenario: the Republican supermajorities let 2026 bills die again, and Gov. Braun keeps courting hyperscalers (Sept. 28 remarks) and framing moratoria as a local matter (Sept. 9). The legislature instead passes affordability or abatement tweaks, or tax-incentive changes, none of which count. (d) Yes scenario: Citizens Action Coalition's statewide campaign, the mass of local bans and energy-affordability politics push a GOP-authored pause-until-study bill on facilities over 100 MW through both chambers by April 2027. Indiana's simple-majority veto override means a Braun veto need not block it. Against this, nationally only Maine has enacted a statutory moratorium; New York and Massachusetts used executive orders. No 2027 Indiana bill, sponsor or leadership statement has surfaced. The Polymarket anchor of 28% has already fallen from 53.5% in two days of thin trading ($45k volume). I think the research justifies going well below it, to about 9%, keeping some weight on unknown pre-session developments and a statewide backlash.
claude-opus-5-5
60% conf
Yes 10%
No 90%
(0) Resolution check: no source shows a statewide moratorium enacted. Trackers updated through 2026-09-28 list only local measures (Indianapolis/Marion County, Zionsville, Owen County, about 25 counties) plus HEA 1210, a revenue-sharing law that is not a moratorium. None of these qualify, so the condition is not yet met. (a) About 15 months remain before Dec. 31, 2027. The only realistic vehicle is the 2027 long budget session (January to late April 2027), unless a special session is called. (b) Status quo is No: no pre-filed bill, no sponsor, and no statement from leadership or the governor supporting a statewide pause. (c) NO scenario: the Republican supermajority again lets data-center restriction bills die in committee, as all ~10 did in 2026. Governor Braun keeps courting hyperscalers (Sept. 28 remarks) and says the state won't "tell local communities what to do." Any action ends up as ratepayer or tax-incentive tweaks, which don't count. (d) YES scenario: Citizens Action Coalition's statewide-moratorium campaign combines with local backlash and the affordability agenda (HEA 1002, the IURC inquiry). That, plus red-state precedent such as the Texas permitting freeze, produces a suspend-until-study-completes moratorium on hyperscale facilities that passes both chambers and is signed. The Polymarket anchor is 28%, but it is two days old, thinly traded, and already fell from 53.5%. The research gives no specific reason for GOP leadership to reverse course. The strict qualifying criteria (mandatory, statewide, statutory) also exclude the more likely partial measures. I therefore price well below the market, while keeping some weight on fast-moving national backlash.
gpt-5.6-sol
73% conf
Yes 21%
No 79%
(0) The condition has not already been met: the official Indiana General Assembly page provides no enactment evidence, while trackers dated through September 28, 2026 report no statewide moratorium and classify HEA 1210 only as a revenue-sharing law. (a) Roughly 15 months remain until December 31, 2027, but the January-to-April 2027 General Assembly session is the only realistic legislative window for introducing, passing, and enacting a qualifying statute. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because existing and pending moratoria are local measures, which do not qualify. (c) The central No scenario is that Indiana's Republican supermajorities continue favoring local control and data-center investment, with Governor Braun's September 28 comments courting AI companies and demanding self-supplied power rather than supporting a statewide pause. (d) A Yes scenario is that organized advocacy and the rapidly growing patchwork of local bans produce a statewide bill during the 2027 budget session, framed around electricity affordability and covering all sufficiently large facilities. I anchor on Polymarket's 28% Yes price but move down because no bill, sponsor, leadership endorsement, or gubernatorial support has surfaced, comparable 2026 proposals failed, and statutory statewide moratoria remain exceptionally rare; local momentum and one full session remaining keep Yes materially above a tail risk.
gpt-5.6-sol
72% conf
Yes 20%
No 80%
(0) The condition has not already been met: the official Indiana General Assembly page contains no substantive enactment evidence, while the September 28 statewide tracker reports no qualifying statewide moratorium and identifies HB 1210 only as a nonqualifying revenue-sharing law. (a) Roughly 15 months remain until December 31, 2027, but the only realistic legislative window is Indiana's January-to-late-April 2027 regular session, during which a currently unannounced bill would need to clear both chambers and become law. (b) If nothing changes, the result is No, because existing and pending moratoria are local measures and therefore do not satisfy the statewide statutory or constitutional requirement. (c) The central No scenario is that Indiana's Republican supermajorities continue leaving regulation to local governments, enact narrower affordability or incentive reforms, and decline a moratorium consistent with Governor Braun's September 2026 pro-investment statements and the failure of broader 2026 proposals. (d) A Yes scenario is that proliferating local pauses and electricity-affordability concerns generate a statewide bill covering all large facilities, which passes during the 2027 budget session amid organized advocacy and a broader national restriction trend. I price Yes at 20%, below Polymarket's 28% anchor, because there is no filed bill, sponsor, leadership support, or gubernatorial backing, and statutory statewide moratoria remain exceptionally rare; the organized campaign and growing local backlash keep the chance material rather than remote.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
14% (66% confidence)
Yes: 14% No: 86%
Mean of 5 draws (0.08, 0.09, 0.10, 0.21, 0.20). (0) No statewide moratorium is enacted; trackers as of 2026-09-28 show only local pauses and HEA 1210 (revenue sharing). (a) About 15 months remain, with the Jan–Apr 2027 session the only realistic window. (b) Status quo is No: no pre-filed bill or leadership backing. (c) No: GOP supermajorities let bills die again as in 2026, and Braun keeps courting hyperscalers and calls moratoria a local matter. (d) Yes: CAC's statewide campaign, 25+ local moratoria and red-state precedents like Texas push a suspend-until-study bill through by April 2027. The 28% price comes from a two-day-old, thin market already falling from 53.5%, with sibling contracts also inflated; only Maine has a statutory statewide moratorium, so I fade the market with some tail for shifting politics.
5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader
Side
no
Position Size
$1,000
Contracts
1370
Trader Confidence
66%
Trade rationale
The forecast puts YES at 13.6% against a market price of 28%, a 14.4pp edge toward NO. NO is also the market favourite (about 72%), so this bets with the favourite, which is the book's profitable type (23/4 closed). The rationale gives specific reasons. No statewide bill has been pre-filed and no leadership backs one. Indiana's Republican supermajorities let similar bills die in 2026. Governor Braun courts hyperscalers and calls moratoria a local matter. Only Maine has a statewide moratorium in law. On price action, this market is two days old and has already fallen from 53.5% to 28%, which fits early overpricing that is still correcting. It does not look like the market reacting to news. All five forecast draws are below the market price, from 8% (claude) to 21% (gpt), so even the most bullish draw points to NO. The 13pp spread between models and the forecaster confidence of 0.66 are why I'm sizing at baseline rather than higher.
Allocation logic
$1,000 is the baseline size. Several things keep it from going higher despite the 14pp edge. The contract runs 457 days, and the Jan–Apr 2027 session is a real YES window. I already hold $1,200 of NO on the Missouri moratorium market, which is correlated with this one. There are heavy resting YES bids, about $163k within 5c of the mid, against only $4.6k of NO-side liquidity. Fill cost is fine: about 0.735 average with 0.5pp slippage.
Entry price: $0.73
Current: $0.88
Status: OPEN
P&L: $187.83
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 104.5s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.