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Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
11%
Agent
30%
Market Price
-18.7%
Edge
71%
Confidence
15,824
Volume
1.0c
Spread
273
Days to resolution
3
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.08, 0.07, 0.12, 0.13, 0.14) after one crux research pass. (0) No source shows a qualifying moratorium enacted; the resolution-source fetch returned only generic Missouri House and Senate homepages. (a) About nine months remain; the realistic window is the 2027 regular session (January to May 30), since Gov. Kehoe declined a special session and no statewide initiative could reach the ballot in time. (b) The status quo is No: the 2026 session passed 100 bills and none dealt with data centers, the only hearing (HB 3362, a rate-class/water bill) never got a committee vote, and a September 16 House hearing was cancelled. (c) No path: the leading 2027 vehicle, the House Future Caucus Wellenkamp/Costlow bill, is a guardrails bill (separate rate class, water rules), which is 'permitted subject to conditions' and excluded; leadership and the pro-industry Kehoe block any ban; nationally no state has had a statutory statewide moratorium signed (Maine vetoed). (d) Yes path: Ameren rate-hike pain, the 200-person Capitol rally and Republicans backing a 'pause' produce a moratorium that clears both GOP chambers by mid-May and is signed before June 30; a late-passed bill could still miss the deadline because the governor can take until mid-July. The 29.5% anchor looks inflated by generic anti-data-center sentiment; the December 31, 2026 sister market at 13.5% despite no session before January suggests systematic overpricing. I fade the market substantially.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
18 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
polymarket_direct
resolution_source
polymarket_related
kalshi_related
article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Polymarket question about state legislation. Missouri's 2027 session runs from January to mid-May, and the governor has until mid-July to act on bills. The anchor is polymarket_direct. Related data center moratorium markets for other states on Polymarket and Kalshi give a cross-state reference class. The resolution source is Missouri legislature bill tracking. One targeted search looks for any prefiled Missouri moratorium bill or ballot initiative.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 29.50% (live; bid 29% / ask 30%) - 7-day price change: -8.00% - 30-day price change: -8.00% - Total volume: $15,824 (USD notional) - Price range: 29.50% - 37.50% - Data points: 2 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are generic homepages for the Missouri House and Senate websites, showing navigation menus, links to bill search, committees, and session info, but no specific information about a data center moratorium bill or its enactment status.
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 20 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'data center': 10 markets
- kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
- article_search: Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=120d). 'Missouri data center moratorium bill prefiled 2027 session': 8 articles | 'Missouri initiative petition data center moratorium': 8 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: As of September 30, 2026, Missouri has enacted no statewide data center moratorium; the 2026 session produced no such bill, Gov. Kehoe rebuffed a special-session push and continues to favor the industry, and the only concrete action remains local/county moratoriums, with statewide action deferred to the 2027 regular session (convening January 2027) whose outcome is currently uncertain.
- base rate: The outside-view base rate for "statewide moratorium bills actually becoming enacted law" is extremely low nationally (effectively zero states with a legislature-passed, governor-signed statewide moratorium in force as of Sept 2026, after Maine's was vetoed and New York's remains unsigned), and Missouri's own 2025-2026 sessions produced no floor votes on any data-center bill, with the governor openly pro-development and the 2027 legislative push framed around cost/regulation rather than moratori
- yes case: The strongest YES case rests on a plausible-but-uncertain path: an organized, bipartisan-adjacent legislative bloc (with pre-existing bill templates) combines with intensifying grassroots pressure, rising Ameren rate pain, and a wave of out-of-state moratorium precedents to push a statewide moratorium bill through the GOP-controlled 2027 session and past Gov. Kehoe — but this requires overcoming Kehoe's consistent pro-industry stance and leadership's (O'Laughlin's) dismissiveness, which no evide
- no case: With no bill even introduced yet, an explicit January 2027 earliest-filing date, a constitutionally mandated adjournment by May 30, 2027 (leaving barely a month's buffer to June 30), a governor and much of the legislature favoring "guardrails" over bans, no special session planned, and zero U.S. states having ever achieved a legislature-enacted statewide moratorium as of late September 2026, the structural and political evidence strongly favors NO.
Crux follow-up
- The evidence strongly favors "No." The only concrete, named legislative vehicle poised for the 2027 session (Future Caucus/Wellenkamp-Costlow bill) is a utility rate-class and water-permitting "guardrails" bill, not a construction moratorium, and it already failed to reach a floor vote once. No statewide moratorium bill has been pre-filed, no legislative leader or the governor has endorsed one, and the governor remains actively pro-data-center. Grassroots pressure (September rally) is real but h
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket_direct | OK | 0.3s | 1 | ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 29.50% (live; bid 29% / ask 30%) - 7-day price change: -8.00% - 30-day price change: -8.00% - Total volume: $15,824 (USD notional) - Price range: 29.50% - 37.50% - Data |
| resolution_source | OK | 3.5s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages are generic homepages for the Missouri House and Senate websites, showing navigation menus, links to bill search, committees, and session info, but no specific information about a data center moratorium bill or |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.5s | 20 | Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 20 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'data center': 10 markets |
| kalshi_related | OK | 0.7s | 1 | 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok |
| article_search | OK | 0.5s | 11 | Fetched 11 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=120d). 'Missouri data center moratorium bill prefiled 2027 session': 8 articles | 'Missouri initiative petition data center moratorium': 8 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
17 searches ·
5 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 32s | 4 | 2 | 5471 chars |
| base rate | OK | 27s | 4 | 1 | 4484 chars |
| yes case | OK | 40s | 5 | 1 | 5811 chars |
| no case | OK | 38s | 4 | 1 | 5877 chars |
report: current state
- [2026-06-27] Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe declined a legislative request for a special session on data centers;
Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe's office said he looks forward to working with legislators on data center issues during their regular legislative session, which is next year
. https://www.aol.com/news/kehoe-responds-request-special-session-224332255.html
- [2026-06-23]
More than a dozen members of the Missouri House of Representatives urged Governor Mike Kehoe to call a special session of the General Assembly to address data centers
, spearheaded by Rep. Don Mayhew. https://fox4kc.com/news/coalition-of-state-representatives-urge-kehoe-to-call-special-session-over-data-centers/
- [2026-05/06] The 2026 regular session (ending mid-May 2026) produced no statewide data center legislation:
Missouri lawmakers passed 100 bills during the 2026 session, but none of them was about data centers
. https://www.kcur.org/housing-development-section/2026-07-01/missouri-data-center-rules-water-energy-legislature
- [2026-05-20] Multiple bills were introduced but none advanced: environmental advocates noted
legislators across chambers and parties introduced 6 pieces of legislation to regulate data centers in the state, varying in their enforceability, their thresholds for what would be considered a "hyperscale" data center, and the level of protection they offer
. None imposed a full statewide moratorium. https://moenvironment.org/blog/missouri-2026-legislative-session-in-review/
- [2026-06-05] Reporting on the failed 2026 session noted comparisons to other states:
Maine would have been the first to pass a statewide moratorium on data centers, but the governor vetoed the proposal; Georgia tried to implement a moratorium, but the bill stalled
— Missouri's own effort likewise stalled. https://missouriindependent.com/2026/06/05/theyre-already-here-regulating-data-centers-stalls-in-missouri/
- [2026-08-11] House Future Caucus members said they would push new (non-moratorium) "guardrails" legislation in 2027, including a new utility rate class for data centers, while explicitly not backing a statewide moratorium or special session. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2026/08/11/missouri-data-center-reform
- [2026-09-16/17] Approximately 200 protesters rallied at the Missouri Capitol during the annual veto session
demanding a statewide moratorium on the construction of hyper-scale data centers
, then marched to deliver petitions to the Governor's Mansion. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium
- [2026-09-16] A planned House Special Committee hearing on data centers, which had been announced for that same day,
was cancelled
. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium
- [2026-09-17] As of the rally,
it is unclear if lawmakers will address data centers when the 2027 session convenes in January; while some legislators have brought up the topic as something the state needs to discuss, others believe it should be up to local governments to decide
. https://www.kbia.org/missouri-news/2026-09-17/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium
- [2026-09-16/17] Gov. Kehoe's general stance remains supportive of the industry:
the inaction by lawmakers comes as Gov. Mike Kehoe has repeatedly touted the benefits of building data centers in the state
. https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-09-16/data-center-protesters-fill-missouri-capitol-seeking-a-statewide-construction-moratorium
- [2026] Only local/county-level moratoriums exist so far (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia, St. Charles County), none statewide; e.g.,
Jackson County put a 180-day pause on data center and battery energy storage system land-use applications to add new rules and regulations before allowing new projects
. https://www.kctv5.com/2026/06/22/jackson-county-legislature-passes-180-day-moratorium-data-center-applications/
- [2026] No statewide ballot initiative petition for a data center moratorium was found certified or circulating for the 2026 cycle in Missouri Secretary of State records; the 2026 statewide ballot measures relate to abortion/gender procedures, redistricting/initiative-threshold rules, Jackson County assessor, and parks tax — not data centers. https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_2026_ballot_measures
- [2026] Missouri's 2027 regular legislative session convenes in January 2027 and would need to pass a moratorium bill and have it signed before the June 30, 2027 deadline for this market to resolve Yes.
BOTTOM LINE: As of September 30, 2026, Missouri has enacted no statewide data center moratorium; the 2026 session produced no such bill, Gov. Kehoe rebuffed a special-session push and continues to favor the industry, and the only concrete action remains local/county moratoriums, with statewide action deferred to the 2027 regular session (convening January 2027) whose outcome is currently uncertain.
NOT FOUND: No evidence of any statewide moratorium bill currently pre-filed for the January 2027 session with public text; no confirmed statewide ballot-initiative petition on data centers circulating for a future Missouri election; no indication Gov. Kehoe has changed his generally pro-data-center stance since June–September 2026.
report: base rate
- [2026-09-16] Missouri legislature adjourned its 2026 regular session (ended May 15, 2026) without passing any data-center bill; multiple regulatory and moratorium-adjacent bills (HB 3362, HB 3364, and others by Reps. Wellenkamp, Costlow, Murray, Byrnes) failed to reach a floor vote.
The Missouri legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill on the topic only getting a House hearing last year.
- [2026-09-16] A planned House Special Committee hearing on data centers was cancelled, and
it is unclear if lawmakers will address data centers when the 2027 session convenes in January, with some legislators believing it should be up to local governments to decide.
- [2026-08-11] Missouri's AI/data-center caucus chair said his energy-focused regulatory bill (not a moratorium)
came too late in last year's session to get traction and would return again in 2027
, indicating the state's 2027 legislative push is centered on rate/cost regulation, not an outright construction ban.
- [2026-09-17] A roughly 200-person rally at the Missouri Capitol demanded a statewide moratorium, but this is grassroots advocacy, not legislative action;
Gov. Mike Kehoe has repeatedly touted the benefits of building data centers in the state
, signaling gubernatorial resistance to a ban.
- [2026-04] Nationally, only Maine's legislature has actually passed a full statewide moratorium bill (LD 307) through both chambers, and
Maine was on the verge of becoming the first U.S. state to enact a statewide moratorium on large data centers, but Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill in April 2026.
- [2026-06-04] New York's legislature passed a one-year statewide permit moratorium (S10642/A11560), but as of late September 2026 it
stalled or failed; New York became the first state with a statewide moratorium in force (via Executive Order 62), while the legislature's own one-year moratorium bill passed both chambers in June 2026 and still awaits the Governor's signature.
An executive order would not qualify under this market's terms, which require statutory/constitutional enactment.
- [2026-09-28] A national tracker counts
the week of September 21-28, 2026 marked the sharpest escalation yet in statewide action on data centers
, but this activity (California's package, Texas's executive freeze, Massachusetts's EO) is concentrated in executive orders and utility-regulation statutes, not outright construction bans, and none of it is in Missouri.
- [2026-09] Cross-state base rate:
As of April 2026, Maine is the only state to pass a statewide data center moratorium into law, banning facilities over 20 megawatts until November 2027.
Since Maine's was vetoed, effectively zero U.S. states have a legislatively enacted (statute-based) statewide moratorium in force as of late September 2026, despite
state-level moratorium bills having been introduced in 11 states in 2026
.
- [2026-06] Missouri activity has concentrated at the local/county level rather than statewide: Jackson County, St. Charles County/City, and Peculiar, MO have all adopted local moratoriums, per
communities like Groton, Connecticut, Peculiar, Missouri, and Bangor, Maine, have successfully enacted their own moratoriums or bans
, while the statewide track record remains one of failure to advance.
- [2026-09] National industry trackers (MultiState, Good Jobs First, Rockefeller Institute, savrn.com) consistently describe a pattern of numerous moratorium bills introduced but nearly all dying in committee, being vetoed, or being replaced by narrower rate/disclosure legislation — a base rate strongly against full statewide enactment within a single legislative cycle.
BOTTOM LINE: The outside-view base rate for "statewide moratorium bills actually becoming enacted law" is extremely low nationally (effectively zero states with a legislature-passed, governor-signed statewide moratorium in force as of Sept 2026, after Maine's was vetoed and New York's remains unsigned), and Missouri's own 2025-2026 sessions produced no floor votes on any data-center bill, with the governor openly pro-development and the 2027 legislative push framed around cost/regulation rather than moratorium; this outside view implies low probability of enactment by June 30, 2027.
NOT FOUND: No specific Missouri statewide moratorium bill number has been pre-filed for the 2027 session as of this research; no polling or betting-market history specific to Missouri's own moratorium prospects was found.
report: yes case
YES means: Missouri's General Assembly passes, and Gov. Kehoe signs (or the legislature overrides a veto of, or voters approve via referendum), a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium meeting the resolution criteria's definition (a mandatory, default-prohibition suspension of approval/permitting/construction/interconnection/operation for all new data centers or all facilities over 100 MW), enacted between market creation and June 30, 2027.
- [2026-09-16/17] Grassroots pressure is intensifying, not fading: roughly 200 protesters rallied inside the Capitol rotunda specifically demanding a statewide moratorium, and
around 200 people crowded inside the Missouri Capitol rotunda for a rally demanding a statewide moratorium on the construction of hyper-scale data centers, then marched to the Governor's Mansion to deliver petitions
, showing the issue has escalated to direct capitol action just months before the 2027 session.
- [2026-07-16] A KSHB voter guide of Kansas City-area federal and local candidates found several Republicans, not just Democrats, publicly endorsing a pause: one GOP U.S. House candidate stated
"I am in favor of a pause/moratorium on the continued expansion of data centers in the state until all aspects of the data centers' impacts can be adequately determined and accepted"
, and a sitting Republican congressman said
"we think it wise to pause the expansion on data centers as we listen and learn together"
— evidence the moratorium idea has bipartisan traction among Missouri Republicans, which is the coalition needed to pass anything in the GOP-trifecta legislature.
- [2025-10-17/2026-09] U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has kept sustained pressure on the issue, clashing publicly with Senate President Pro Tem Cindy O'Laughlin after he demanded Ameren "justify its high residential power prices and the spread of hyperscale data centers," and continued invoking data centers in his critique of Ameren's 2026 rate hike request — a prominent Missouri Republican validating the underlying grievance that fuels moratorium demands, even though Hawley himself has not proposed a state-level moratorium.
- [2026-06/2026-08] The moratorium idea already has an organized legislative bloc: more than a dozen House members explicitly petitioned for a special session on data centers (per colleagues' June report), and while the House Future Caucus declined to back a moratorium, it confirmed the topic will return via multiple bills in 2027, meaning a moratorium bill is highly likely to be introduced and receive committee attention (unlike 2026, when
the legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill on the topic only getting a House hearing last year
).
- [2026] Local momentum is arguably a leading indicator for state action: beyond the previously reported St. Charles/Jackson County moratoriums, Columbia's City Council adopted a one-year moratorium (per a May 2026 report, pausing permits until April 2027), and a Joplin citizen group is pursuing an initiative-petition drive for a local one-year construction moratorium alongside a referendum — showing the moratorium mechanism (including citizen-initiated measures) is an increasingly normalized, actively-used tool in Missouri that a statewide campaign could emulate, potentially via constitutional initiative petition if the legislature stalls again.
- [2026-09] National trend context favorable to advocates: the tracker literature shows an accelerating wave of state action the week of Sept. 21-28, 2026 (California's signed package, Texas's executive freeze, Massachusetts's EO, and New Hampshire's governor announcing she "will propose a statewide multi-year moratorium in her next budget"), giving Missouri advocates fresh out-of-state precedents and political cover to point to when the 2027 session convenes.
- [2026] Multiple 2026-session bills already exist as legislative vehicles that could be revived and strengthened into an outright moratorium in 2027, including HB3390's siting/zoning prohibitions on hyperscale centers on certain land types and Rep. Murray's bill that would have "temporarily banned the construction of data centers in St. Louis" (per colleagues' base-rate report) — providing ready-made statutory templates rather than requiring drafting from scratch.
- [2026-07/09] Rising and salient utility rate pain — Ameren's request for roughly $343 million in additional annual revenue (a ~10%, $13/month hike) explicitly tied by critics like Rep. Christ to
"exactly why we passed Senate Bill 4 last year... Missouri is seeing the demand for electricity on a scale we have never dealt with before"
— keeps data-center cost impacts squarely in the news cycle heading into the 2027 session, which is the single strongest political lever moratorium advocates have to force legislative action beyond mere rate-class regulation.
BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on a plausible-but-uncertain path: an organized, bipartisan-adjacent legislative bloc (with pre-existing bill templates) combines with intensifying grassroots pressure, rising Ameren rate pain, and a wave of out-of-state moratorium precedents to push a statewide moratorium bill through the GOP-controlled 2027 session and past Gov. Kehoe — but this requires overcoming Kehoe's consistent pro-industry stance and leadership's (O'Laughlin's) dismissiveness, which no evidence yet shows has softened.
NOT FOUND: No confirmed statewide moratorium bill number pre-filed for the 2027 session as of Sept. 30, 2026; no evidence any Republican legislative leader (House Speaker, Senate President) has endorsed a moratorium; no statewide ballot-initiative petition for a data center moratorium was found filed with the Missouri Secretary of State (only local initiative/referendum efforts, e.g., Joplin).
report: no case
YES means: Missouri legislatively enacts (via bill signed into law, or constitutional/ballot measure approved) a statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium that prohibits or suspends approval/permitting/construction/interconnection/operation of all new data centers, or of all those above 100 MW, by June 30, 2027.
- [2026-09-16/17] The only concrete 2026 legislative product on data centers was a cancelled hearing; multiple reports confirm
"The legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill on the topic only getting a House hearing last year."
No bill has even reached a floor vote, let alone passage, as of late September 2026.
- [2026-08-11] The bipartisan House Future Caucus, the main vehicle for 2027 data-center legislation, explicitly confirmed
"a bipartisan group of Missouri state lawmakers announced plans Tuesday to pursue legislation creating guardrails on artificial intelligence infrastructure and use, though any bills cannot be introduced until January 2027."
This sets the earliest possible bill-introduction date at January 2027, leaving only the standard ~5-month session (constitutionally must adjourn by May 30) to pass and sign any moratorium before the June 30, 2027 deadline — a very tight, historically rare-to-clear window for a contested, high-profile bill.
- [2026-08-11] The caucus's chair stated plainly that
"Wellenkamp said a special session is unlikely given the complexity of the issue,"
and separately
"Gov. Mike Kehoe has also said he has no plans to call a special session,"
removing the main mechanism (an extraordinary session) that could have accelerated action ahead of the 2027 regular session.
- [2026-08-11] The substantive content lawmakers are actually planning is not a moratorium: the caucus's released product was
"the AI Infrastructure Community Evaluation Framework, a guide for local municipalities to use when vetting proposed data center projects,"
with
"Proposed legislation includes protections for residential energy customers, limitations on AI's use as a health professional and definitions of liability in AI-related mistakes"
— none of which is a construction ban.
- [2026-08-11] Even the sole voice for a statewide pause quoted in that same article was a private citizen, not a legislator:
Festus resident Ann Moloney, a Republican politician, said she supports a statewide pause on data center development, calling a six-month moratorium "an incredibly big crowd pleaser,"
underscoring that grassroots demand has not yet translated into any sponsor committing to file a moratorium bill for 2027.
- [2026-09] Missouri's constitutional calendar is a hard constraint against YES: per Article III, Section 20,
"the General Assembly shall convene its regular session on the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January of each year" and "Section 20(a) requires the General Assembly to adjourn its regular session by May 30th."
Any moratorium bill must clear both chambers and reach the governor's desk within roughly 20 weeks (Jan–May 2027), a demanding timeline for a bill opposed by the governor and industry.
- [2026] Missouri's outside-view comparison is unfavorable: a national tracker notes
"State-level moratorium bills have been introduced in 11 states in 2026 but face resistance; meanwhile, dozens of municipalities have moved ahead with local construction pauses, shifting the center of gravity toward local government action,"
and another source states
"So far in 2026, 12 states have taken up data center moratoriums and 11 of them have been unsuccessful."
No state has yet achieved a legislature-passed, governor-signed statewide moratorium; Missouri would have to be the first.
- [2026] Missouri's political dynamic explicitly channels dissent toward the local level, not statewide bans: one legislator quoted in reporting said she does not favor an outright ban, arguing instead that
"Unlike others who are pushing back against data centers, Kueny doesn't think it's realistic to outright ban them in Missouri… 'As a person who works in technology, AI is the next technology and we do need to embrace it'… 'However, they need to be built responsibly, and they need to be built in places where communities actually want it.'"
This reflects a broader legislative preference for regulation/guardrails over prohibition.
- [2026] The moratorium activity that has actually succeeded in Missouri remains confined to cities and counties (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia, Peculiar, Franklin/Webster/Montgomery counties weighing local rules), which the resolution criteria explicitly exclude, since a "moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state" does not qualify.
- [2026-05] Even Missouri's Republican governor has framed large data-center investment as a rare opportunity to be protected, not restricted, with Kehoe stating projects like Google's $15 billion investment reflect deals that "never come again," reinforcing an executive posture opposed to any statewide construction freeze.
BOTTOM LINE: With no bill even introduced yet, an explicit January 2027 earliest-filing date, a constitutionally mandated adjournment by May 30, 2027 (leaving barely a month's buffer to June 30), a governor and much of the legislature favoring "guardrails" over bans, no special session planned, and zero U.S. states having ever achieved a legislature-enacted statewide moratorium as of late September 2026, the structural and political evidence strongly favors NO.
NOT FOUND: No specific 2027 Missouri moratorium bill number, sponsor, or pre-filed text; no statement from Gov. Kehoe reacting to the September 16 rally or petitions; no confirmed Missouri ballot-initiative moratorium petition circulating for a future election; no official 2027 Missouri General Assembly convene/adjourn calendar beyond the constitutional default dates.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean · re-drawn after crux research
crux research
The first round disagreed: the draws' mean 0.11 sits 0.18 from the same-question market "this polymarket market" at 0.29.
One more research loop went after the crux and every draw below was redone with its report.
first-round draws:
8%, 8%, 11%, 14%, 14%
· crux loop: 3 searches, 1 page reads
report: crux
CRUX: The decisive fact is whether the Missouri legislature's leading 2027 vehicle (the House Future Caucus's Wellenkamp/Costlow bill and any moratorium proposal) is designed as a rate-class/guardrails bill or as an actual default-prohibition moratorium — because that determines whether any bill capable of passing in 2027 would even qualify under the strict resolution criteria, independent of timing/veto issues.
- 2026 session outcome:
Missouri lawmakers passed 100 bills during the 2026 session, but none of them was about data centers.
The only hearing on the topic concerned
HB 3362, also known as the "AI Infrastructure Grid Integrity and Water Resources Protection Act," the only hearing conducted this session about hyperscale data centers.
- That bill was not a moratorium:
Wellenkamp and Costlow's bills would have extended that requirement to municipally owned utilities and electric cooperatives, mandating a separate rate schedule for customers with an expected annual peak demand of 50 megawatts or more, and proposed comparable measures for water use.
It stalled:
Both bills received a committee hearing but were not brought to a vote by committee chairman Jeff Farnan, which ended their progress for the session.
- Aug 11, 2026, the House Future Caucus (chaired by Wellenkamp) previewed its 2027 plan, again framed as guardrails, not a ban:
Wellenkamp said legislation he introduced last year came too late in last year's session to get traction and would return again in 2027; among other things it would require large load electricity consumers like data centers to cover grid expansion costs, new generating capacity and infrastructure improvements, and create a new rate class for power users like data centers.
A caucus colleague emphasized it is not anti- or pro-data center:
"Compiling this list of questions and these considerations for local communities as they grapple with this is not an anti-data center. It's not a pro-data center. It is a pro-community measure," said State Rep. Mike Costlow.
- Sept 16-17, 2026: a ~200-person Capitol rally explicitly demanded what current legislation does not provide —
a statewide moratorium on the construction of hyper-scale data centers
— while
the legislature has yet to act on data centers, with one bill on the topic only getting a House hearing last year.
A planned House hearing on data centers for that same day was cancelled:
It was also supposed to be the same day as a House hearing on data centers. But that hearing was cancelled.
- Governor's stance is unchanged and pro-development:
Mike Kehoe has repeatedly touted the benefits of building data centers in the state.
- No statewide moratorium bill has been reported pre-filed for 2027 by name; the only named upcoming legislative vehicle (Wellenkamp/Costlow's revived AI Infrastructure/Grid Integrity Act) is a rate-class/cost-allocation and water-permitting bill, not a construction ban, and it already failed to advance once in 2026 despite Future Caucus backing (source: missouriindependent.com, Aug 11 Spectrum News, June 2026 STLPR/KBIA articles above).
- National context shows most 2026 state-level moratorium efforts have stalled or failed outright, per one tracker's characterization:
Per NCSL (via Route Fifty, June 2026), lawmakers in ~14 states were considering data-center bans or moratoriums; MultiState counts 300+ data-center bills filed across 30+ states in 2026, and Good Jobs First lists at least 11 states that introduced outright moratorium bills.
Only isolated states (Maine legislature passed one that was vetoed; New York moved via executive order) have gotten close, none via a state as pro-industry as Missouri.
BOTTOM LINE: The evidence strongly favors "No." The only concrete, named legislative vehicle poised for the 2027 session (Future Caucus/Wellenkamp-Costlow bill) is a utility rate-class and water-permitting "guardrails" bill, not a construction moratorium, and it already failed to reach a floor vote once. No statewide moratorium bill has been pre-filed, no legislative leader or the governor has endorsed one, and the governor remains actively pro-data-center. Grassroots pressure (September rally) is real but has not yet translated into legislative traction — a scheduled hearing was even cancelled — making passage and enactment of a qualifying moratorium by June 30, 2027 a high bar that current evidence does not support.
NOT FOUND: No confirmation of any specific statewide moratorium bill text, sponsor, or bill number pre-filed for the 2027 session as of this writing; no statewide ballot-initiative petition drive for a moratorium was identified.
claude-opus-5-5
72% conf
| Yes | 8% |
| No | 92% |
(0) No source shows a qualifying moratorium enacted; the resolution-source fetch returned only generic Missouri House and Senate homepages. (a) About nine months remain; the realistic window is the 2027 regular session (January to May 30), since Gov. Kehoe declined a special session and no statewide initiative could reach the ballot in time. (b) The status quo is No: the 2026 session passed 100 bills and none dealt with data centers, the only hearing (HB 3362, a rate-class/water bill) never got a committee vote, and a September 16 House hearing was cancelled. (c) No path: the leading 2027 vehicle, the House Future Caucus Wellenkamp/Costlow bill, is a guardrails bill (separate rate class, water rules), which is 'permitted subject to conditions' and excluded; leadership and the pro-industry Kehoe block any ban; nationally no state has had a statutory statewide moratorium signed (Maine vetoed). (d) Yes path: Ameren rate-hike pain, the 200-person Capitol rally and Republicans backing a 'pause' produce a moratorium that clears both GOP chambers by mid-May and is signed before June 30; a late-passed bill could still miss the deadline because the governor can take until mid-July. The 29.5% anchor looks inflated by generic anti-data-center sentiment; the December 31, 2026 sister market at 13.5% despite no session before January suggests systematic overpricing. I fade the market substantially.
claude-opus-5-5
70% conf
| Yes | 7% |
| No | 93% |
(0) Nothing shows the condition met. As of 2026-09-30 Missouri has no statewide moratorium; the 2026 session passed zero data-center bills, and only local moratoriums exist (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which the rules exclude. (a) About nine months remain, but the only realistic vehicle is the 2027 regular session. It opens in January and must adjourn by May 30. Governor Kehoe declined a special session. The November 2026 ballot has no data-center measure, and a veto override would only come at the September 2027 veto session, after the deadline. So YES effectively needs a bill passed and signed by Kehoe before June 30. (b) Status quo is NO. The main 2027 vehicle, the Future Caucus's Wellenkamp/Costlow bill, is a rate-class, cost-allocation and water 'guardrails' bill that would not qualify. It already stalled in committee in 2026, and no moratorium bill has been pre-filed. (c) NO scenario: the legislature passes, at most, a large-load rate-class bill, while leadership and the pro-industry governor (who touts Google's $15B investment) block any construction ban. (d) YES scenario: intensifying grassroots pressure (the September Capitol rally), Ameren rate anger, and bipartisan Republican calls for a 'pause' push a qualifying default-prohibition moratorium through both chambers, and Kehoe reverses and signs it by June. The national base rate is also poor: no state has a legislature-enacted statewide moratorium in force; Maine's was vetoed and New York's bill was unsigned as of September. The Polymarket price of 29.5% comes from a thin, two-day-old market that has already fallen 8 points. I see no specific information supporting it and discount it heavily, keeping a small tail for fast-moving politics.
claude-opus-5-5
62% conf
| Yes | 12% |
| No | 88% |
(0) Nothing shows the condition met. The research finds no statewide moratorium enacted, no moratorium bill pre-filed and no statewide initiative petition. Missouri's only moratoriums are local (St. Charles, Jackson County, Columbia), which the rules exclude. (a) About nine months remain, but in practice only the January–May 30, 2027 regular session can deliver a bill. Kehoe has refused a special session, and a new initiative could not reach a statewide ballot before the deadline. (b) Status quo is No: the 2026 session passed 100 bills, none on data centers, and a scheduled September House hearing was cancelled. (c) NO: the Future Caucus's Wellenkamp/Costlow bill advances as a rate-class, cost-allocation and water 'guardrails' measure, which would not qualify. Any moratorium bill dies in committee, as the 2026 bills did under chairman Farnan, or is vetoed by a governor who calls Google-style investments deals that 'never come again'. (d) YES: post-midterm backlash, rising Ameren rates and out-of-state precedents push the GOP supermajority to pass a hyperscale pause. Kehoe would then have to sign it or be overridden before June 30. That requires a reversal by leadership and the governor that no evidence yet shows. Nationally, no legislature-passed statewide moratorium has become law: Maine's was vetoed, and New York's bill sits unsigned alongside an executive order. I anchor on Polymarket's 29.5%, but it is thin (about $15k) and looks like a generic 'data center wave' price, consistent with similar prices across Indiana, Ohio and Louisiana. The specific Missouri facts — no vehicle, a pro-industry governor, a legislature preferring guardrails — justify moving well below it, while keeping some weight on a fast-moving political backlash.
gpt-5.6-sol
73% conf
| Yes | 13% |
| No | 87% |
(0) The condition has not already been met: Missouri government pages provide no enactment record, while multiple September 2026 reports say only local moratoriums exist and the legislature has yet to enact any data-center legislation; a qualifying statewide statute or constitutional provision must still be enacted by June 30, 2027. (a) About nine months remain, but the practical opportunity is the roughly five-month regular session beginning in January and constitutionally ending by May 30, leaving little time before the deadline. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because local pauses, executive or agency action, and utility-rate regulations do not satisfy the rules. (c) The central No scenario is that lawmakers revive the named Wellenkamp-Costlow rate-class, grid-cost, and water-use guardrails proposal rather than a default-prohibition moratorium, or that any stronger bill stalls or meets opposition from pro-development Governor Mike Kehoe. (d) A Yes scenario is that mounting local opposition, utility-rate concerns, bipartisan pressure, and the September Capitol rally produce a qualifying moratorium bill that clears both chambers and is signed or enacted over a veto during the 2027 session. I move materially below Polymarket's 29.5% Yes anchor because no qualifying bill, sponsor, leadership endorsement, or statewide petition has been identified, the leading 2027 vehicle expressly does not qualify, comparable statewide efforts have overwhelmingly failed, and Kehoe remains supportive of data-center investment.
gpt-5.6-sol
76% conf
| Yes | 14% |
| No | 86% |
(0) The condition has not already been met: official-site retrievals showed no qualifying enactment, while September 2026 reporting found only local moratoriums and no statewide bill, although the generic official pages leave minor source-verification risk. (a) About nine months remain until June 30, 2027, but the practical window is Missouri's roughly five-month regular session from January through May 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the status quo is No because local measures, executive action, incentive changes, and utility guardrails do not satisfy the market's statutory or constitutional statewide-moratorium requirement. (c) No results if lawmakers pursue the named Wellenkamp-Costlow rate-class and water-permitting package instead of a default prohibition, or if a moratorium bill stalls or meets opposition from the pro-development governor. (d) Yes could result if utility-rate pressure and bipartisan grassroots opposition produce a qualifying bill covering all new facilities above 100 MW, which clears both chambers and is signed or enacted over a veto by the deadline. I move materially below Polymarket's 29.5% Yes anchor because the concrete 2027 vehicle is explicitly a guardrails bill rather than a moratorium, no qualifying proposal is pre-filed or backed by legislative leadership, the governor remains supportive of data-center investment, and comparable statewide legislative moratoriums have overwhelmingly failed.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws · second round
11%
(71% confidence)
Yes: 11%
No: 89%
Mean of 5 draws (0.08, 0.07, 0.12, 0.13, 0.14) after one crux research pass. (0) No source shows a qualifying moratorium enacted; the resolution-source fetch returned only generic Missouri House and Senate homepages. (a) About nine months remain; the realistic window is the 2027 regular session (January to May 30), since Gov. Kehoe declined a special session and no statewide initiative could reach the ballot in time. (b) The status quo is No: the 2026 session passed 100 bills and none dealt with data centers, the only hearing (HB 3362, a rate-class/water bill) never got a committee vote, and a September 16 House hearing was cancelled. (c) No path: the leading 2027 vehicle, the House Future Caucus Wellenkamp/Costlow bill, is a guardrails bill (separate rate class, water rules), which is 'permitted subject to conditions' and excluded; leadership and the pro-industry Kehoe block any ban; nationally no state has had a statutory statewide moratorium signed (Maine vetoed). (d) Yes path: Ameren rate-hike pain, the 200-person Capitol rally and Republicans backing a 'pause' produce a moratorium that clears both GOP chambers by mid-May and is signed before June 30; a late-passed bill could still miss the deadline because the governor can take until mid-July. The 29.5% anchor looks inflated by generic anti-data-center sentiment; the December 31, 2026 sister market at 13.5% despite no session before January suggests systematic overpricing. I fade the market substantially.
5. Entry Decision Opus 5.5 trader
Side
no
Position Size
$1,200
Contracts
1690
Trader Confidence
Trade rationale
The market prices NO at about 70.5% and the forecast puts it at 89.2%, so this bet sides with the favourite on an 18.7pp edge. That kind of entry has been the book's profitable type (23/4 closed). The case is specific, and I confirmed it on the open web. No data-center bills passed in the 2026 session, which ended May 15. The September 16 House hearing was cancelled. Gov. Kehoe said on Sept 2 that he prefers 'guardrails' to a moratorium, and his executive orders include nothing on data centers. The 2027 session ends May 30, so a bill would have to pass both chambers and be signed before the June 30 deadline. That leaves little room. All five ensemble draws came in between 7% and 14%, and forecaster confidence is 0.71. The December 2026 sister market at 13.5% also suggests the market is overpricing this. Two things could still turn YES. Texas Gov. Abbott ordered a data-center permit halt in September, which shows a Republican governor can impose a pause without a law. Jackson County also passed a local moratorium in June, if the resolution rules would count local action.
Allocation logic
An 18.7pp edge with the favourite would normally justify more than the $1,000 baseline. I'm holding it at $1,200 because the market doesn't resolve for 9 months, it's thin (about $16k volume), and there are two tail risks: Texas-style executive action and uncertainty over whether local moratoria count. The book has no other data-center positions, so this adds no overlapping risk. It is still the 18th open Science and Technology position.
Entry price:
$0.71
Current:
$0.90
Status:
OPEN
P&L:
$298.76
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 134.4s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.