Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

- [2026-03-10] Burlington economist Amanda Janoo became the first Democrat to announce a campaign for governor , setting up a challenge to five-term Republican incumbent Phil Scott. Source: vermontpublic.org - [2026-08-11] Vermont held its primary; Janoo won the Democratic nomination, defeating Aly Richards, while Janoo now sets to the task of unseating Republican Gov. Phil Scott, a five-term incumbent who won more than 70% of the general election vote in 2024 . Source: vermontpublic.org - [2026-08-11] Phil Scott secured the Republican nomination uncontested, per NBC News' primary results page: Republican Gov. Phil Scott is seeking a sixth two-year term ... This race is uncontested . Source: nbcnews.com - [2026-08-12] ABC News projected the primary outcome: Economist Amanda Janoo will win the Democratic primary for governor, ABC News projects, and will face incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott in November . Source: abcnews.com - [2026-08-11] In the concurrent Democratic Lt. Governor primary, Gray defeated DNC member Ryan McLaren and 2024 gubernatorial nominee Esther Charlestin in the Democratic primary with 60.8% of the vote , indicating strong Democratic enthusiasm down-ballot this cycle. Source: en.wikipedia.org - [2026-09-17] WCAX profiled the race, noting Phil Scott faces a challenge from Democrat Amanda Janoo as he seeks a historic sixth term . Source: wcax.com - [2026-09-24] University of New Hampshire Survey Center's Green Mountain State Poll (fielded Sept. 17–21, n=835, MoE 3.3%) found The Democrat gets support from 49% of those surveyed. The five-time incumbent Republican gets 43% , the first public poll showing Scott trailing. Pollster noted The snapshot in time represents a departure from years past, when Scott has been elected by wide margins thanks to strong support from Vermont Democrats . Source: wcax.com/scholars.unh.edu - [2026-09-24] The same WCAX report noted Scott's approval has eroded: Scott has won re-election by wider margins every election cycle starting in 2016, peaking last year , but his campaign spokesperson disputed the poll's partisan sample composition (per the same article). - [2026-09-28] The Vermont Public 2026 Poll (Braun Research, Sept. 10–?, n=817, MoE 3.4%) showed a tighter but opposite-direction result: If the election was held today, according to the survey of 817 Vermonters, 42% would vote for Scott and 32% would cast their ballot for Janoo. Twenty percent are undecided... Among likely voters, the poll found that 44% would vote for Scott and 34% for Janoo, with 16% undecided . Source: vermontpublic.org - [2026-09-28] Vermont Public noted the shrinking gap is historically unusual: Julia Barnes, a veteran political strategist who formerly served as executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, noted that Scott has won each of his last three reelection bids by at least 40 percentage points . Source: vermontpublic.org - [2026-09-28] The same report cited by WAMC found a similar UNH-Scott result contrast: In the race for governor, 44% of likely voters support incumbent Republican Phil Scott and 34% would vote for Democrat Amanda Janoo. A poll released last week by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Scott trailing Janoo, 43 to 49 percent. Source: wamc.org - [2026-09-30] As of today, no AP/Fox/NBC race call has been made; the general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and no debates, additional polls, or major campaign events beyond the two September polls were found in the last 7 days. BOTTOM LINE: Two competing late-September 2026 polls disagree sharply on the state of the race — UNH's poll shows Janoo (D) narrowly ahead 49-43%, while Vermont Public's poll shows Scott (R) still leading 44-34% among likely voters — but both agree the race is far closer than Scott's historic landslide reelections, with a large undecided bloc and five weeks left before the November 3 election. NOT FOUND: No AP, Fox News, or NBC race call exists yet (election is Nov. 3, 2026, still five weeks away as of this report); no independently corroborated third poll to resolve the discrepancy between the UNH and Vermont Public surveys; no scheduled gubernatorial debates found in search results.

- [2026-09-30 (retrieved)] Historical base rate: Phil Scott (R) has won five consecutive gubernatorial elections since 2016 (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024), each by increasing margins; in November 2024, Governor Phil Scott won re-election in a landslide, and was able to break Democratic supermajorities in the Vermont Senate and Vermont General Assembly, and flip the office of lieutenant governor , despite Vermont otherwise being a deeply blue state. Democrats have not held the Vermont governorship since Peter Shumlin left office in 2017 — a run of 10 straight GOP wins/holds in this office. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2022-11-08] In the last midterm cycle, incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel , winning roughly 71%-24%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2024-11-05] In the most recent race, Scott won 73.43% to 21.83% against Esther Charlestin, his widest margin yet, reinforcing a strong base-rate prior toward Republican retention. - [2026 cycle, expert ratings as of late Sept 2026] Major forecasters/raters are split but lean Republican overall: Cook Political Report "Solid R" (as of 2025-09-11), Inside Elections "Solid R" (2025-08-28), Sabato's Crystal Ball "Safe R" (2026-05-28), Fox News "Solid R" (2026-07-23), Decision Desk HQ "Safe R" (2026-09-23), RealClearPolitics "Lean R" (2026-09-25), while Nate Silver's model has moved it to "Tossup" (2026-08-20) — indicating most outside-view raters still favor the historical GOP-incumbent pattern, with one major quant model recently downgrading confidence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-24/25] A UNH "Green Mountain State Poll" showed a dramatic break from the historical pattern: the Republican governor trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo by 6 percentage points, 49 percent support among likely voters to 43 percent for Scott , a result UNH itself called a statistical tie and vtdigger called potentially "the closest in a decade" . https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/25/latest-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-and-amanda-janoo-in-tightest-race-in-a-decade/ - [2026-09-28] Days later, a Vermont Public poll reversed this, finding Scott leading Janoo by 10 points, 42% to 32% , illustrating high current polling volatility/methodological disagreement rather than a settled trend. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-09-28] Context on incumbency base rate from a veteran strategist: Scott has won each of his last three reelection bids by at least 40 percentage points , underscoring how historically dominant this incumbent has been even as recent polling shows erosion. - [2026-09-25] Pollster caution on track record: UNH's own 2024 pre-election poll predicted a 28% margin of victory for Scott, who went on to win reelection by more than 50% — a reminder that polls in this race have historically understated Scott's actual support, a relevant "polling miss" base-rate consideration. - [2026-05-28] Structural/situational context: Democrats view 2026 nationally as favorable turf; state Treasurer Mike Pieciak said whereas 2024 saw Republicans make gains at the state and federal level, Pieciak said the 2026 midterms offer an opportunity for Democrats to retake lost ground , suggesting a possible mean-reversion/midterm dynamic working against the incumbent party nationally, though Vermont's governorship is the opposite-party seat here. - [2026 cycle] Approval erosion: Scott's approval ratings are down 15 percentage points since Vermont Public's last poll in 2022, when 60% of Vermonters said they approved of the job he was doing as governor. According to the latest poll, fewer than half of residents — 45% — approve of Scott's performance , a meaningful weakening from his historically exceptional approval base rate (previously rated most popular governor nationally by Morning Consult). - [Reference class note] Vermont's 2-year gubernatorial term structure means this race is essentially an even-year "referendum cycle" every two years; over the last 10 years (5 cycles) the outside-view base rate for a Democratic win in this specific office is 0-for-5, an unusually strong incumbency/partisan-mismatch pattern relative to the state's otherwise "Solid Democratic" federal/legislative voting behavior ( Vermont was Solid Democratic, having voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, Joe Biden (D) in 2020, and Kamala Harris (D) in 2024 ) — yet governorship base rate strongly favors Republicans/Scott specifically. BOTTOM LINE: The outside-view/base-rate for this office is unusually one-sided: an incumbent Republican governor has won five straight, often landslide, elections in an otherwise deeply Democratic state, and most professional election raters (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato's, Fox, DDHQ) still rate the race Republican-favored; however, unlike prior cycles, current polling shows a genuinely competitive race with wide poll-to-poll swings and declining incumbent approval, so the base rate points toward "No" (Republican win) but with meaningfully more uncertainty than any of Scott's previous five races. NOT FOUND: No comprehensive dataset of long-run (pre-2016) Vermont gubernatorial party-flip base rates was located, nor any explicit historical statistic on how often 2-year-term Vermont governorships flip party control over multiple decades; no specific track-record/calibration data for Cook/Sabato/Inside Elections/DDHQ ratings in comparable "Solid R" incumbent-blue-state races.

YES means: Amanda Janoo (Democratic nominee) wins the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, and this is called by AP, Fox News, and NBC for her (or certified for her if the networks split), unseating five-term Republican incumbent Phil Scott. - [2026-09-24] The UNH Green Mountain State Poll's internal crosstabs reveal the collapse in Scott's core coalition: he wins 89 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents, but among Democrats, only 20 percent back him, while 73 percent support Janoo , a partisan-base defection unprecedented in his five prior campaigns. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-172002989.html - [2026-09-24] The same poll ties this defection to a concrete national trigger, not generic dissatisfaction: the poll was conducted after President Donald Trump's trade negotiations with Canada broke down and both countries imposed tariffs... Seventy-one percent of Vermonters disapprove of how Trump has handled the talks, while 77 percent say they are concerned about the impact on the state , giving Janoo a live, ongoing wedge issue against an otherwise popular incumbent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-172002989.html - [2026-09-24] Scott's net approval has flipped from positive to negative territory in two months per the same tracker: his job approval has slipped to 47%, down from +5 net approval in July, driven largely by eroding support among Democrats and Independents . https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/september/25/unh-poll-janoo-edges-scott-partisan-headwinds-tighten-governors-race - [2026-09-24] Middlebury College's Matt Dickinson frames this as more than a polling artifact, tying it to an unfulfilled 2024 GOP promise: "It's a fluid race, certainly; things can change here, but if I'm Phil Scott, I should be worried... Republicans made inroads in the last election by addressing affordability. It's not clear they've followed through on that. And they may be paying a price for that." https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/ - [2026-09-08] Janoo's financial position, while still smaller in absolute terms, shows real grassroots momentum: Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo has raised more than twice as much money as Republican incumbent Phil Scott so far this campaign, despite her pledge not to accept corporate contributions... Janoo has raised $420,000 for her campaign, thanks in part to small contributions from more than 1,200 supporters . https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap - [2026-09-08] UVM political scientist Alex Garlick reads this as an enthusiasm signal even if not yet decisive: Janoo's numbers indicate "more enthusiasm for her gubernatorial campaign than Democrats have had in several years"... but in "absolute dollars," she's still well short of what she'd need to mount a serious advertising campaign . https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap - [2026-09-25] Nate Silver's own commentary underscores how anomalous the polling is relative to history, and that his model has not resolved it: only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2103526090803204209 - [2026-09-28] Down-ballot data corroborates a genuine partisan swing rather than a Janoo-specific outlier: in the same UNH poll, in the race for Vermont's number two, former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray is leading incumbent Republican John Rodgers by 14 points, 54% to 40% . https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/ - [2026-09-28] Even the more Scott-favorable Vermont Public poll includes voter-level testimony consistent with a wealth-tax-driven realignment: resident Liz Courtney said "there are wealthy people that have homes here and that live here and can afford to pay more taxes, and it would just make such a big difference for the rest of us" , reflecting Janoo's core economic message finding traction. https://www.ctpublic.org/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-09-29] Late-breaking mobilization signals a "closing" push by state Democratic leadership rather than continued neglect: the Vermont Political Observer reports Janoo has three separate Janoo events next week in Brattleboro... a fundraiser on October 6 followed by one of her town hall meetings. And the next night, Treasurer Mike Pieciak will get stuck in, hosting a fundraiser on behalf of Janoo and LG candidate Molly Gray , suggesting the "money gap" and "establishment apathy" weaknesses noted by colleagues may be narrowing in the final five weeks. https://thevpo.org/2026/09/29/two-more-notes-on-the-numbers/ - [2026-09-25] A Democratic strategist quoted anonymously frames even a loss within single digits as transformative for future cycles, implying real momentum toward a win threshold: "I would say that if she [Janoo] comes within 10 points," Silver said, "that is a sign that it is open season." https://robertroper.substack.com/p/which-scott-v-janoo-poll-to-believe BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path runs through continued Trump-tariff-driven Democratic-base defection from Scott (documented at 73% Janoo support among Democrats and a net-approval collapse), converted into turnout via a late-arriving institutional Democratic money/mobilization push (Pieciak/Gray fundraisers, October canvasses) — a scenario for which the UNH poll and down-ballot LG numbers already provide a live proof-of-concept, even though most professional raters and the rival Vermont Public poll still show Scott ahead. NOT FOUND: No poll after September 28 to arbitrate between the two conflicting surveys; no evidence of a Bernie Sanders endorsement of Janoo despite requests (noted absent as of Sept. 23); no data on advertising spend levels once Janoo's $420K war chest is deployed in October.

YES means: Democrat Amanda Janoo defeats Republican incumbent Phil Scott in the November 3, 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, and AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race for her (or, absent a joint call, official certification shows she won). This dimension argues for NO (Scott/Republican win). - [2026-09-28] Veteran Vermont political journalist Chris Graff called the UNH poll showing Janoo ahead an "outlier," and said the Vermont Public poll showing Scott up 10 points is "a little more in line with how those of us who follow this closely see the race, which is that Governor Scott maintains a lead." Source: vtdigger.org - [2026-09-28] Graff argued Janoo remains structurally disadvantaged heading into the stretch run: she is "not yet defined in the public" and lacks the "money or organization" to reach the large bloc of undecided voters statewide. Source: vtdigger.org - [2026-09-28] Scott's own campaign spokesperson dismissed the UNH tie result outright, stating "Public polling has always undervalued the Governor's support," consistent with the documented 2024 UNH miss (predicted 28-point Scott margin vs. actual 50%+). Source: vtdigger.org - [2026-09-08] Despite outraising Scott roughly 2-to-1, Janoo's fundraising edge is undercut by the incumbent's structural head start: Scott came into his 2026 reelection bid with more than a $300,000 surplus from his last campaign , and Vermont Public reported Scott entered September still with roughly $200,000 cash on hand versus Janoo's much smaller reserve after heavy spending. Source: vermontpublic.org, wcax.com - [2026-09-03] Post-primary financial data show an unhealed Democratic rift: WCAX reported that since the primary, campaign finance data show that some of Richards' financial backers, the more establishment wing of the Vermont Democratic Party, have not yet opened their wallets — an indication of an ideological split in the Democratic coalition. Source: wcax.com - [2026-07-24] Even Janoo's own primary rival, Aly Richards, publicly doubted a Democrat could beat Scott, saying of Janoo: "But the truth is that I really don't think that she has as much of a shot to beat Phil." Source: vnews.com - [2026-09-23] As of late September, professional forecaster Decision Desk HQ still rated the race "Safe Republican" with roughly a 98% win probability for Scott, per aggregator Octagon AI's summary of DDHQ's model. Source: octagonai.co - [2026-09-28] Scott was independently confirmed as "the most popular governor" in the country as of a July report by the firm Morning Consult , indicating his personal brand strength persists nationally even as state-specific approval erodes. Source: vtdigger.org - [2026-09-14] The single scheduled Vermont Public gubernatorial debate is set for Wednesday, Oct. 21 — the first and only major head-to-head venue where Janoo, still poorly known statewide, must both introduce herself and dislodge a five-term incumbent, leaving only ~13 days before Nov. 3 to convert any debate gains into a shifted electorate. Source: vermontpublic.org - [2026-09-28] A veteran Democratic strategist's framing reinforces the base-rate wall Janoo must break: Scott has won each of his last three reelection bids by at least 40 percentage points, illustrating how historically dominant this incumbent has been even amid current approval erosion (45% approval per Vermont Public, still a plurality). Source: vtdigger.org BOTTOM LINE: The most credible, closely-watched recent data point (Vermont Public's Sept. 28 likely-voter poll plus veteran-journalist consensus that the UNH tie was an outlier) plus Scott's cash/surplus advantage, an unhealed Democratic-establishment funding gap, and DDHQ's "Safe Republican" 98% rating all support the case that Scott's five-cycle incumbency advantage holds and the race resolves NO. NOT FOUND: No independent third poll conducted after Sept. 28 to break the UNH/Vermont Public tie; no post-Sept. 28 fundraising disclosure (next FEC-equivalent VT filing deadline not identified); no evidence of any national Democratic money/ad buy targeting this race that would offset Janoo's organizational disadvantage before Nov. 3.