Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

- [2026-09-02] The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.20%) — its seventh consecutive hold — with the next scheduled decision set for October 28, 2026, alongside a fresh Monetary Policy Report. The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2026. The Bank's next MPR will be released at the same time. - [2026-09-02] In its statement, the BoC flagged that CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% in recent months, mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices, while excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% and measures of core inflation remained close to 2% in July , and noted that with the Middle East conflict still ongoing and little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz, upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased, with the longer high oil prices persist, the greater the risk of spillover to other prices . - [2026-09-14] Statistics Canada's August CPI report showed headline CPI held at 3.0% for a second consecutive month, while excluding gasoline, inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.2%, so underlying pressure increased even as the headline stood still . Core measures (trim/median) stayed near target at 1.9%/2.0% per Statistics Canada/Trading Economics data. - [2026-09-14] Following the CPI release, markets moved: Bond markets put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike on October 28 at 63%, against 37% for a hold , though some outlets noted this eased slightly as core inflation stayed contained. - [~2026-09-18] Canadian Press reported: traders are increasingly betting that the Bank of Canada could end its string of interest rate holds and deliver a hike as early as next month, while many economists remain unconvinced that the central bank will raise the cost of borrowing this year , noting the Fed's own hike had spurred read-through. - [~2026-09-20] Labour market data softened the case for imminent tightening: Employment fell by 42,000, missing forecasts for a gain of about 15,000; the unemployment rate held at 6.4% only because the labour force shrank with it; and average hourly wages slowed to 2.0% from 2.8% in July . - [~2026-09-20] Despite the weak jobs print, professional forecasters remained split: Market pricing has flipped from asking when the Bank will cut to asking when it will hike, with the consensus now running to no move for the rest of 2026 and the first hike expected in the first half of 2027 — a view held by 63% of economists in a Bloomberg survey, matching swaps pricing . Money markets have since gone further and are pricing in a partial increase for the December 9 decision. - [2026-09-25] Most recent OIS-derived market pricing shows a 59% probability the Bank of Canada hikes at the 28 Oct 2026 rate announcement, with a market-implied move of +15 bp from the current overnight rate of 2.25% — implying markets see a hike as more likely than not but not fully priced (15bp implied move is below a full 25bp hike). - [2026-09-29 snapshot] A separate tracker (rateprobability.com) confirms the current level: Overnight Rate Target: 2.25% Deposit Rate: 2.20% Bank Rate: 2.50% Last CORRA: 2.30% , with the next decision due Oct 28, 2026. - [~2026-09-22] Governor Macklem struck a more hawkish tone in a Halifax speech, warning that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running around 3%, well above the Bank's 2% target — and largely because of fuel costs — and if oil prices hold near $100 a barrel, Macklem expects inflation to edge higher still in the months ahead , while stressing the Bank is "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed" in either direction. - [2026-09-16] Persistent energy-driven inflation pressure remains a live risk: Canada's national gas price average was reported at 177.6¢/L as of mid-September 2026, roughly 30% above year-ago levels, with the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved and driving elevated Brent crude prices near/above $100/barrel. - [Scheduled before Oct 28] Statistics Canada's September CPI release is due October 19, 2026 — nine days before the Bank's decision — plus additional employment data, both of which will be key inputs the Governing Council will weigh before finalizing the October decision. BOTTOM LINE: The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for seven straight meetings (most recently Sept 2, 2026), and while a hawkish tilt from persistent ~3% headline inflation (energy-driven) has pushed market-implied hike odds for October 28 into the 55-65% range in swaps pricing, a weak August jobs report and contained core inflation (~2%) have kept a majority of professional economists expecting another hold, with any hike more consensus-expected for December 2026 or early 2027; the outcome remains genuinely contested and highly sensitive to the September CPI (Oct 19) and employment data still to come before the meeting. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of any scheduled postponement or cancellation of the October 28, 2026 announcement; no official BoC statement yet issued for October (announcement is still pending as of Sept 29, 2026); no consensus Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll figure for the specific October 28 decision (only Bloomberg's broader 2026 poll at 63% expecting no move for the rest of 2026) was found in the sources reviewed.

- [2026-09-02] The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive announcement; Governing Council agreed to leave the policy rate unchanged as the economy and inflation evolved broadly as forecast, though upside risks to inflation increased and new tariffs made growth prospects more uncertain . https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/ - [2026-09-02] Historical context: the Bank of Canada has held its interest rate at 2.25% since October last year, when it came down from 2.50% — i.e., seven straight "hold" outcomes is the immediate reference class for this question. https://www.moneysense.ca/news/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-september-2026/ - [2026-08-31] Pre-September survey showed unanimous economist consensus for a hold: all 35 economists forecast a hold at 2.25%, but National Bank and Scotiabank predict a 50-basis-point hike by December , illustrating how uniformly "no change" has been the base-rate expectation recently. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/326070/20260831/bank-canada-holds-wednesday-two-banks-forecast-october-hike-lock-wait.htm - [2026-08-31] Bank-level split for October/December: four of Canada's six largest banks — BMO, CIBC, RBC, and TD — forecast the policy rate holding at 2.25% through December 2026, with hikes beginning in 2027 if growth proves sustained, while National Bank and Scotiabank project the Bank will move to 2.50% in October 2026 and 2.75% before year-end . https://www.techtimes.com/articles/326070/20260831/bank-canada-holds-wednesday-two-banks-forecast-october-hike-lock-wait.htm - [2026-09-25] TD Securities' longer-run house view (from August 2026) still expects continuity of holds: TD Securities said in August 2026 that it expects the overnight rate to stay at 2.25% through 2026 before two 25 basis point increases take it to 2.75% in 2027, and National Bank has published a similar path (note: this summary conflates two banks' differing views, but reflects mainstream "hold-through-2026" framing at major banks). https://www.financecalendar.com/bank-of-canada-rate-decisions/ - [2026-08-31] Ahead of September, market pricing itself favored "no change" as by far the modal outcome: bond market pricing summarised by mortgage broker nesto pointed to a high probability of no change, with roughly a 1% implied chance of a 25 basis point increase, and about a 32% implied chance of a cut by the October 28 meeting — but this cut-leaning pricing has since flipped toward hike risk. https://www.financecalendar.com/bank-of-canada-rate-decisions/ - [2026-09-29] Current market-implied odds (CORRA OIS forwards) as of the report date show a near coin-flip rather than a clear base-rate "hold": As of 29 Sept 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 53% probability the Bank of Canada hikes at the 28 Oct 2026 rate announcement, with a market-implied move of +13 bp from the current overnight rate of 2.25% , with the remainder (47%) implying hold and 0% cut. https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-09-22] A few days earlier, swaps had priced the hike odds slightly higher: As of 25 Sept 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 59% probability the Bank of Canada hikes at the 28 Oct 2026 rate announcement, with a market-implied move of +15 bp from the current overnight rate of 2.25% , indicating the market has been oscillating but consistently pricing a hike as more likely than a hold in the days before this report. https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-09-09] Softer post-September data cut against the hike case: nesto's synthesis notes Softer hiring and cooler wages weaken the case for an increase without building a case for a cut, which is the position the Bank carries into October — supporting a base rate that "hold" remains institutionally plausible despite market pricing tilting toward hike. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/ - [2026-09-09] Nesto's own editorial base-rate judgment: Forecasts suggest we are unlikely to see any meaningful changes in interest rates in 2026. The Bank of Canada has now held its policy rate at 2.25% for seven consecutive announcements, and with trade uncertainty persisting, policymakers remain focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target , favoring continued hold as the "more realistic scenario," though acknowledging the swaps/major-bank split noted above. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/ - [2026-09-29] Reference class: the BoC meets 8 times/year and, per multiple sources, has left the rate unchanged in each of its last 7 consecutive meetings (Jan–Sept 2026) after a cut in October 2025, indicating "no change" has been the modal outcome in ~88% of recent 2026 decisions, though this streak now faces its first serious two-sided risk (hike vs. hold) heading into October. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/ BOTTOM LINE: The base rate strongly favors "no change" as the historical default (7 straight holds in 2026, unanimous economist consensus for holds through September), but market-implied OIS pricing has recently shifted to a slim majority (53-59%) favoring a hike rather than a hold for October, making this a genuinely contested call rather than a repeat of the recent hold streak. NOT FOUND: A long-run (multi-year/multi-cycle) statistical base rate of "no change" outcomes across all BoC scheduled announcements (e.g., over the last 10–20 years) was not located; also no independent poll of economists specifically dated after the September 16 deliberations summary or after the October 9 jobs report was found.

YES means: the Bank of Canada leaves the overnight rate target unchanged at 2.25% at the October 28, 2026 announcement (no hike, no cut). - [2026-09-22] Two of the most-cited BoC watchers explicitly expect a hold: RBC's Claire Fan and Desjardins' Randall Bartlett both told BNN that "Both Fan and Bartlett expect the BoC to hold for the rest of 2026 and hike in the first quarter of 2027," with Bartlett noting a re-escalating US-Canada tariff dispute weighs against tightening. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-put-bank-canada-october-111500996.html - [2026-09-22] Capital Economics' chief North America economist Stephen Brown, whose team is closely tracked on this file, stated plainly: "Our base case is that the bank will not hike in October, though it will likely be a close call," a view he repeated in a client note. https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605843755 - [2026-09-22] Brown's reasoning rests on timing, not just data direction: the BoC will only "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts" for oil in its late-October Monetary Policy Report, but the bank will "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts" for elevated oil prices when it publishes its next outlook in late October, having fresh inflation, labour market and GDP data — plus its own consumer and business surveys — before the Oct. 28 decision , implying the hawkish response can be delivered via forecast/guidance revision rather than an immediate hike. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-put-bank-canada-october-111500996.html - [2026-09-22] National Bank of Canada's Ethan Currie (a domestic bank economist, distinct from National Bank's earlier hike call) argued "while oil-driven inflation risks have increased, the Bank of Canada is likely to remain on hold in October as domestic slack and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the economic outlook," and separately judged that OIS pricing of roughly four hikes by mid-2026 "may be somewhat overstated relative to underlying fundamentals" per the same source. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-slack-delays-hikes-despite-crude-shock-nbc-202609221506 - [2026-09-22] RBC Economics' own published research reiterates the hold call at the institutional level: "We continue to expect the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates before hiking gradually in 2027 on a stronger economy," while flagging that risks tilt toward earlier hikes only if oil prices fail to normalize. https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/financial-markets-monthly/boc-and-fed-to-hike-from-different-starting-points/ - [2026-09-22] A synthesis piece framed the prevailing professional consensus as still hold-leaning even amid market repricing: "the prevailing consensus is that the next policy decision will likely not see a hike in October." https://ca.headtopics.com/news/bank-of-canada-inches-toward-possible-rate-hike-amid-rising-87882041 - [2026-09-18] Even as trader positioning shifted, the same reporting distinguishes market pricing from economist views: "Traders are increasingly betting that the Bank of Canada could end its string of interest rate holds and deliver a hike as early as next month. While many economists remain unconvinced that the central bank will raise the cost of borrowing this year," with any tightening cycle more often pencilled in for early 2027. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/09/18/odds-of-an-interest-rate-hike-from-bank-of-canada-this-year-have-jumped/ - [2026-09-18] Quantifying the swing in odds: "In the days leading up to each of the Bank of Canada's six meetings so far in 2026, financial market odds have overwhelmingly been in favour of rate holds. Before the central bank's Sept. 2 decision to leave the policy rate unchanged, odds of a hold were pegged at 94 per cent, according to LSEG Data & Analytics," establishing that "hold" has been the dominant regime outcome all year, with the current contested pricing a sharp but recent departure from a strong baseline. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/09/18/odds-of-an-interest-rate-hike-from-bank-of-canada-this-year-have-jumped/ - [2026-01-23] Historical mechanism for why "hold" wins close calls: in an earlier 2026 Reuters poll, CIBC's chief economist argued that when risks are two-sided and data mixed, the BoC tends toward inertia — "At this point, the BoC is ready to take a fairly long wait-and-see stance. If there's a risk of a move, it's more likely to be a cut than a hike this year," illustrating the institution's demonstrated preference for caution over pre-emptive tightening even when inflation data have surprised to the upside. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-hold-rates-steady-143834484.html - [2026-09-22] A structural argument for why the Bank can stay patient without risking financial-condition slippage: Desjardins' Bartlett noted rising global bond yields are "doing some of the central bank's tightening work for it, which gives the Bank 'a bit of wiggle room' to stay patient" even if headline inflation stays elevated. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-put-bank-canada-october-111500996.html - [2026-08-31] The immediate pre-existing base rate for "hold" going into any BoC meeting this year has been effectively unanimous among professional forecasters, with the September decision seeing all 35 Reuters-polled economists correctly forecasting a hold; no economist survey found for October yet shows a majority explicitly calling for a hike, only market-implied swaps pricing (which is not identical to economist consensus). BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for a YES (hold) resolution rests on the fact that the specific economists most engaged in the meeting-by-meeting call (RBC's Fan, Desjardins' Bartlett, Capital Economics' Brown, National Bank's Currie) are on record as of Sept. 22 still expecting a hold in October, with any tightening deferred to Q1 2027, even though CORRA/OIS swap pricing has moved to a narrow hike-favoring split; this divergence between trader positioning (near coin-flip, hike-tilted) and economist calls (hold-favored) is the central tension, and the Bank's own institutional pattern of extreme inertia (94% hold-pricing before September, seven straight holds) offers a mechanism-level reason a "close call" plausibly resolves as another hold pending the Oct. 19 CPI and additional labour data. NOT FOUND: No post-September-25 economist poll (Reuters/Bloomberg) specifically dated for the October 28 decision; no confirmation of any newer (post-Sept 25) shift in oil prices or CPI data that would materially move the hold/hike calculus before this report's cutoff.

YES means: the Bank of Canada leaves the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at the October 28, 2026 announcement (the literal "No Change" outcome). This dimension argues the strongest case for NO — i.e., that the Bank actually moves the rate (most plausibly a hike) on October 28, breaking the hold streak. - [2026-09-21] Governor Macklem, in Halifax, explicitly framed the risk asymmetry as being biased toward acting rather than waiting: "We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent." He further warned that if oil prices stay near $100 a barrel, we'd expect inflation to edge up in the coming months. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/speech-tiff-macklem-governor-bank-canada-2026-09-21/ (text via forexfactory.com) - [2026-09-09] Scotiabank Economics argued a hawkish inflation-forecast revision without a matching hike would be an inconsistent signal: BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has stepped up warnings on inflation risks ahead of a full round of forecast revisions, signaling a higher inflation outlook. Against that backdrop, it would be a surprising outcome for the BoC to lift its inflation forecast without following through with a rate hike, added Scotiabank. Scotiabank pegged October-hike odds near one-in-three at the time, with a full hike priced by December. https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605813178 - [2026-09-24/25] Even economists whose base case is a hold concede it is a close call: Capital Economics' Stephen Brown said "Our base case is that the bank will not hike in October, though it will likely be a close call," and separately argued the Bank will "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts" for elevated oil prices in the October Monetary Policy Report — a forecast upgrade that historically raises hike pressure. https://money.ca/mortgages/mortgage-rates/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-odds-october-2026 - [2026-09-18] The Fed's own hawkish pivot supplied a direct read-through channel: the shift follows the U.S. Federal Reserve's own move Wednesday, delivering its first rate hike in more than three years to fight inflation south of the border , reinforcing a global-tightening narrative that traders are extending to the BoC. - [2026-09-18] The size of the swing in pricing itself is evidence of genuine two-sided risk rather than status-quo inertia: odds of a hold going into the Sept 2 meeting were Before the central bank's Sept. 2 decision, markets had priced in a 94% chance of another hold , versus In the days leading up to each of the Bank of Canada's six meetings so far in 2026, financial market odds have overwhelmingly been in favour of rate holds. Before the central bank's Sept. 2 decision to leave the policy rate unchanged, odds of a hold were pegged at 94 per cent — a sharp deterioration in "hold" confidence within weeks, unlike prior 2026 meetings. - [2026-09-24] Macklem quantified the mechanical inflation channel that argues for action: "Two things probably have to happen if you're too slow: One is, you're goin [g to have to catch up]... and the Bank estimates a 10% rise in oil prices normally adds about 0.2 percentage points to CPI, but refining disruptions have pushed fuel prices higher than crude alone would imply, per reporting on his Halifax remarks. https://www.tcf-fca.ca/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-october-28-2026/ - [2026-09-28] Oil prices remain elevated and volatile heading into the decision window, keeping the inflation-upside case alive: Brent crude climbed toward $106 per barrel on Tuesday... Brent crude rose toward $108 a barrel on Monday, recovering from a 2.1% decline in the previous session, as fading hopes for an imminent diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Talks remain unresolved: Iranian officials have reportedly cast doubt on the possibility of reaching an agreement to end hostilities in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections in November. Recent US-Iran talks in New York produced limited progress, with President Donald Trump rejecting Tehran's latest proposal to reopen the strategic waterway. Persistently high oil directly sustains the ~3% headline CPI print the Bank has flagged as a risk. - [2026-09-25] Two independent inputs due before October 28 — the Business Outlook Survey/Consumer Expectations survey on October 19 and September CPI also October 19 — give the Bank fresh, hawkish-leaning data points to act on; the prior (Q2 2026) BOS already showed More firms now expect their input and selling prices to rise, reflecting higher global oil prices. Firms' inflation expectations are also higher than in recent quarters. If the October 19 survey confirms broadening price expectations, it strengthens the case for a hike just nine days later. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/business-outlook-survey-second-quarter-of-2026/ - [2026-09-24] A quarter-point move is the "clean" resolution mechanism should the Bank act: A standard quarter-point increase would take it to: 2.50% (paraphrased from source), which the resolution criteria would register as a straightforward, non-rounded "Increase" outcome — i.e., no ambiguity about whether a move counts as "change." BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for the rate actually changing rests on hard, dated mechanics rather than sentiment alone: an explicit Macklem warning against being "too slow" (Sept 21), Scotiabank's argument that an inflation-forecast upgrade without a hike would be internally inconsistent (Sept 9), a Fed-hike read-through (Sept 18), and oil prices still climbing toward $106–108/barrel with Strait of Hormuz talks stalled as of Sept 28 — all landing just before the October 19 CPI and Business Outlook Survey releases that could tip a genuinely coin-flip decision toward a hike. NOT FOUND: No official Bank of Canada pre-commitment or guidance confirming a hike is planned; no post-September-24 economist survey aggregating a formal consensus probability specifically for October 28 (most recent explicit probabilities found were the Sept 25 OIS-implied 59% hike odds already reported by colleagues, and Scotiabank's ~1-in-3 October estimate from Sept 9, which predates the Macklem speech and the latest oil price moves).