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Will Pennsylvania have at least 195 data centers listed in 2026?
52%
Agent
55%
Market Price
-2.6%
Edge
50%
Confidence
21,474
Volume
3.0c
Spread
100
Days to resolution
6
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.50, 0.50, 0.48, 0.57, 0.57). (0) Not resolved. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but research read the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-29 and found 174 listings. That leaves 21 still needed to reach 195.
(a) About three months remain until the end-2026 snapshot, with trading closing 2027-01-07.
(b) Status quo: 174 stays below 195, so the outcome depends entirely on the listing pace. The count went from about 100 in Dec 2025 to 174 by late Sep 2026, roughly 7-8 per month. The required pace is about 7 per month, which is essentially the historical average and gives a knife-edge setup.
(c) NO scenario: additions slow in Q4. Causes could be Shapiro's Aug-18 executive order removing fast-track permitting and requiring local approval, pending moratorium bills, and 76% local opposition. Also, the site adds listings in lumpy batches (clusters like Allentown's 32 and Pottsville's 15), so a quiet quarter could leave the count in the 180s.
(d) YES scenario: Data Center Map keeps adding facilities, including planned ones from the large Cleanview-documented pipeline of 130+ planned projects. One or two batch additions would clear 195 easily.
The Kalshi anchor is 55% (bid 51 / ask 54). It fell from 77% over 30 days before rebounding, which may mean traders watching the live page saw a slowdown in September. With the required pace equal to the trend and real deceleration risk, I stay near the coin flip, slightly below the market.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
20 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
kalshi_direct
resolution_source
kalshi_related
polymarket_related
Planner reasoning
The market resolves on the Data Center Map count for Pennsylvania, so the resolution page's current count is the key input, and kalshi_direct gives the price anchor. The sibling threshold markets in the KXPADATACENTERS series, plus other states' data center markets, show the implied distribution and how fast the count has been growing.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 195** (KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T195) - Current price (probability): 55.00% (live; bid 51% / ask 54%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 53.00% - 7-day price change: +11.00% - 30-day price change: -22.00% - Average daily volume: 1048 contracts - Price range: 43.00% - 77.00% - Data points: 18 days
- resolution_source (failed): https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/: HTTP 429
- kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. series KXPADATACENTERS: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'data centers': ok
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 1 matches. keyword 'data centers': 1 markets
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: The resolution source (Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page) shows explosive, roughly linear growth over the past 18 months — 71 (Feb-2025) → 79 (Apr-2025) → ~100+ (Dec-2025) → 174 (Sep-29-2026) — implying a recent run rate of roughly 7-8 new listings per month; extrapolating that pace over the remaining ~3 months to year-end would put the count in the high-190s, close to but not decisively above the 195 threshold, so the outcome is currently on a knife's edge and highly sensitive to whether the
- base rate: The trend from this specific tracker (Data Center Map) shows accelerating growth — roughly 79→100+ (Apr–Dec 2025) then 100+→174 (Dec 2025–Sep 2026), i.e., an average of roughly 8 new listings per month over the last nine months. Reaching the 195 threshold by end of 2026 requires only ~21 more listings (about 7/month) over the remaining three months, which is below the recent observed pace, so the outside-view growth trajectory favors continued increases toward or past 195, though listing counts
- yes case: The resolution source itself has grown from ~100 to 174 in roughly nine months (an average of ~8/month), and a large, well-documented pipeline (135 additional planned projects per a September 28, 2026 Cleanview/Axios analysis, plus tens of billions in committed capital) gives ample raw material for Data Center Map to keep adding new listings; reaching 195 by year-end requires only ~21 more (about 7/month), in line with or below the recent pace, so the growth-trajectory case for YES is strong pro
- no case: A sweeping regulatory reversal (Shapiro's Aug-18-2026 executive order pulling data centers from fast-track permitting and requiring prior local approval), stacked with pending state-legislative moratorium/zoning-pause bills and 76% public opposition in June polling, gives concrete new mechanisms by which the rapid Data Center Map listing growth seen through September could decelerate sharply in Q4 2026, making the ~21-listing gap to 195 harder to close than a naive trend extrapolation suggests.
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi_direct | OK | 0.2s | 1 | ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 195** (KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T195) - Current price (probability): 55.00% (live; bid 51% / ask 54%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 53.00% - 7-day price change: +11.00% - 30-day price change: -22.00% - Average daily volume: 1048 contracts - Price range: 43. |
| resolution_source | FAILED | 0.2s | 1 | https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/: HTTP 429 |
| kalshi_related | OK | 0.7s | 1 | 1 related markets / summaries. series KXPADATACENTERS: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'data centers': ok |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.4s | 1 | Polymarket search over 1 keyword(s), kept 1 matches. keyword 'data centers': 1 markets |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
15 searches ·
8 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 43s | 5 | 3 | 4689 chars |
| base rate | OK | 35s | 4 | 2 | 4101 chars |
| yes case | OK | 35s | 3 | 1 | 5151 chars |
| no case | OK | 48s | 3 | 2 | 6038 chars |
report: current state
- [2025-02-13] Data Center Map listed **71** data centers in Pennsylvania, per Axios reporting on state job-growth data. https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/02/13/pennsylvania-data-center-job-growth
- [2025-04-16] Data Center Map listed **79** data centers in Pennsylvania (23 in Allegheny County; Pittsburgh ~42% of state total).
Pennsylvania has 79 data centers, about 42% of which are in the Pittsburgh area, including a small cluster at Nova Place on the North Side, per Data Center Map. There are 23 in Allegheny County.
https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/04/16/tracking-data-centers-pittsburgh
- [2025-12-18] Axios reported the count had grown further:
There are over 100 data centers in Pennsylvania, according to Data Center Map, up from 79 in April. The Pittsburgh region has the most (36) of any in the state, followed by Philadelphia (34) and Scranton (9).
https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion
- [2026-09-29] The Data Center Map Pennsylvania page (the market's explicit resolution source) currently shows:
We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania.
https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/
- [2026-09-29] Market breakdown per Data Center Map: Pittsburgh 36, Allentown 32, Philadelphia 29, Harrisburg 20, Pottsville 15, Scranton 9, Wilkes Barre 8, Lewistown 6, Lebanon 5, Reading 3, Lancaster 3, Ebensburg 2, Bethlehem 2, Valley Forge 1, State College 1, Lehigh Valley 1, Towanda 1 (sums to 174). https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/
- [2026-02-20] A competing tracker (dcmap.us, not the resolution source) showed a lower count of 148 tracked facilities/projects for Pennsylvania (83 operational, 7 under construction, 53 planned, plus paused/inactive), illustrating that different trackers count very differently.
Pennsylvania has 148 tracked data center facilities and projects, including 7 under construction and 53 planned... 83 operational, 7 under construction, 53 planned, 3 paused, and 2 inactive or historical.
https://dcmap.us/states/pennsylvania/
- [2025-10-20] Penn State Extension noted the wide disagreement across private trackers:
Although no public agency currently tracks the number of DCs in Pennsylvania, several private firms maintain online listings of commercial facilities that lease server space. Their information indicates Pennsylvania had between 57 and 97 of these DCs as of October 2025.
https://extension.psu.edu/data-centers-and-water-use-in-pennsylvania
- [2025-12-18] Pushback is growing but not yet slowing construction:
A tide is forming against data centers, but Pennsylvania is holding it back — for now. Data centers are attracting more pushback from locals, electric grid monitors and politicians, but it doesn't appear to be slowing them down much in the Keystone State.
https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion
- [2025-12-18] Some local rejections have occurred (Cumberland and Luzerne counties blocked/preempted proposals), a downside risk to continued rapid listing growth.
Several communities across the state have blocked or preempted data center proposals, like in Cumberland and Luzerne counties.
https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion
- [2026-08-21] A third-party aggregator (datacenters.com, not the resolution source) separately listed only 73 data centers in Pennsylvania, underscoring how much the exact number depends on which site is checked.
The Pennsylvania, United States Data Centers Market includes a total of 73 data centers and 0 data center providers.
https://www.datacenters.com/locations/united-states/pennsylvania
BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source (Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page) shows explosive, roughly linear growth over the past 18 months — 71 (Feb-2025) → 79 (Apr-2025) → ~100+ (Dec-2025) → 174 (Sep-29-2026) — implying a recent run rate of roughly 7-8 new listings per month; extrapolating that pace over the remaining ~3 months to year-end would put the count in the high-190s, close to but not decisively above the 195 threshold, so the outcome is currently on a knife's edge and highly sensitive to whether the listing pace holds, accelerates, or slows amid growing local pushback.
NOT FOUND: No official Data Center Map historical snapshot or press release giving an exact count for late September 2026 other than the live page fetched today (174); no confirmed count for mid-2026 (e.g., May-August 2026) to pin down the growth curve more precisely; no statement from Data Center Map itself about methodology changes or a year-end target/roadmap for Pennsylvania listings.
report: base rate
- [2025-04-01] Data Center Map listed 79 data centers in Pennsylvania as of April 2025, per an Axios report citing the site's count at that time.
There are over 100 data centers in Pennsylvania, according to Data Center Map, up from 79 in April.
(https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion)
- [2025-12-18] By mid-December 2025, Data Center Map's Pennsylvania count had crossed 100, with regional breakdown showing
The Pittsburgh region has the most (36) of any in the state, followed by Philadelphia (34) and Scranton (9)
— implying the state total was roughly 100-110 at that point. (https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion)
- [2026-09-29] The current Data Center Map Pennsylvania page (fetched today) shows:
We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania.
(https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/)
- [2026-09-29] Market-level breakdown on Data Center Map shows Pittsburgh (36 today, down slightly in relative share vs Dec's 36 as Philadelphia grew to 29), Allentown (32), Philadelphia (29), Harrisburg (20), Pottsville (15), Scranton (9), confirming continued diversification and growth across multiple metro markets, not just one hub. (https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/)
- [2025-10-20] Penn State Extension's review of "private firms" tracking data centers noted
although no public agency currently tracks the number of DCs in Pennsylvania, several private firms maintain online listings of commercial facilities that lease server space. Their information indicates Pennsylvania had between 57 and 97 of these DCs as of October 2025
, showing that different trackers (Data Center Map vs. others) can diverge by tens of facilities depending on methodology — a caution for reading any single count too precisely.
- [2026-06-22] A grassroots/independent mapping effort (Spotlight PA feature) documents a separate crowd-sourced "Pennsylvania Data Center Proposal Map," reflecting that public interest and tracking of PA data centers (both operating and proposed) has become intense enough to generate multiple competing trackers, consistent with rapid underlying growth in the state's data center footprint. (https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2025/12/data-centers-pennsylvania-map-emilia-doda-environment/)
- [2026-04-01] Local reporting (City & State PA) on the broader boom describes ongoing community conflict over new data center siting proposals across multiple counties (Montour, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Bucks), indicating the pipeline of new facilities feeding into listings like Data Center Map remains active and contested but not halted. (https://www.cityandstatepa.com/policy/2026/04/power-plays-battle-over-data-centers-pa/412554/)
- [Reference class]: No sibling Kalshi/other-venue markets on this exact Data Center Map metric were found; this appears to be a novel, narrowly-defined metric (a specific third-party listing site's count) rather than a recurring event type with an established historical base rate of "Yes" resolutions.
BOTTOM LINE: The trend from this specific tracker (Data Center Map) shows accelerating growth — roughly 79→100+ (Apr–Dec 2025) then 100+→174 (Dec 2025–Sep 2026), i.e., an average of roughly 8 new listings per month over the last nine months. Reaching the 195 threshold by end of 2026 requires only ~21 more listings (about 7/month) over the remaining three months, which is below the recent observed pace, so the outside-view growth trajectory favors continued increases toward or past 195, though listing counts on such trackers can be volatile and are not a regulated, audited metric.
NOT FOUND: No official Data Center Map historical archive/changelog with monthly counts was located (relying on secondary press citations for April 2025 and December 2025 figures); no prior Kalshi/other-venue markets on this same Data Center Map metric to establish a track record of similar contracts resolving Yes/No; no year-end-2025 exact count directly from Data Center Map's own page (only press paraphrase "over 100").
report: yes case
YES means: Data Center Map's Pennsylvania listing count reaches at least 195 by December 31, 2026 (the site currently shows 174 facilities as of September 29, 2026).
- [2026-09-29] Data Center Map's own Pennsylvania page confirms the current count:
"We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania."
This is up sharply from ~100+ in mid-December 2025, only three months ago, showing the listing count itself (not just announcements) is still climbing fast. (https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/)
- [2026-09-28] A brand-new Axios Philadelphia analysis (published the day before this report) states
"Pennsylvania now has 135 data centers planned across the state, per a new analysis."
citing market-intelligence firm Cleanview — a very large incremental pipeline feeding future listings beyond the 174 already on Data Center Map. (https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2026/09/28/data-center-proposals-pennsylvania-philadelphia-region-amazon)
- [2026-09-28] The same Cleanview-sourced figures show the scale of capacity growth driving new facility counts:
"The planned data centers would massively increase the state's current capacity of 311 megawatts to 18,155 MW, per Cleanview."
Even a fraction of this pipeline converting to "listed" status this quarter could push Data Center Map's count well past 195. (https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2026/09/28/data-center-proposals-pennsylvania-philadelphia-region-amazon)
- [2026-09-01] Pennsylvania's own Department of Environmental Protection has launched a government "Data Center Permit Tracker" reportedly showing dozens of confirmed, permit-seeking projects, indicating the underlying pipeline of new physical sites is large enough and formal enough to keep feeding third-party listing sites at a fast clip. (https://cumberlink.com/news/state-regional/pennsylvania/article_98549e96-ed85-574c-9472-b0dbc22ebeab.html)
- [2025-07-15] The scale of committed capital behind this pipeline is enormous: Pennsylvania's Energy and Innovation Summit alone saw
"companies announced over $90 billion of investments in data centers, energy and power infrastructure, and workforce and AI training projects"
, including a $25B Blackstone/QTS commitment in Northeast PA and a $15B multi-campus hyperscale project in Central PA — both feeding new facility listings over 2025-2026. (https://www.mccormick.senate.gov/?p=7596)
- [2026-04-27] Pittsburgh Magazine's May 2026 feature documents active, ongoing conversions and new builds in the Pittsburgh region specifically, describing
"the Florida company TECfusions was converting the first of several old buildings at a former Alcoa research site in Upper Burrell into an AI center, with plans to convert the rest of the buildings and, if demand grows, construct new ones"
— a concrete, in-progress project likely to generate new individual listings as buildings come online. (https://www.pittsburghmagazine.com/data-centers-pennsylvania/)
- [2026-06-15] DatacenterDynamics' Pennsylvania news tag shows continuous month-by-month activity through mid-2026 (new permits, workforce doublings, capacity expansions), confirming the state's data center news cycle has remained active and frequent rather than slowing, consistent with continued additions to trackers like Data Center Map. (https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/?tag=pennsylvania)
- [2026-09-29] Regional breakdown on Data Center Map today shows growth spread across many markets simultaneously — Pittsburgh 36, Allentown 32, Philadelphia 29, Harrisburg 20, Pottsville 15 — indicating the 174 count reflects genuinely broad-based statewide additions, not a single cluster nearing saturation, which supports continued multi-market growth toward 195+. (https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/)
- [2026-08-05] A separate large national tracker (usdatamap.com) independently reports rapid nationwide data-center-count growth (970 total facilities tracked, 355.9 GW capacity, updated continuously), reinforcing that the broader sector is in a phase of very frequent new-facility listings across trackers, a favorable backdrop for Data Center Map's PA count to keep climbing. (https://usdatamap.com/)
BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source itself has grown from ~100 to 174 in roughly nine months (an average of ~8/month), and a large, well-documented pipeline (135 additional planned projects per a September 28, 2026 Cleanview/Axios analysis, plus tens of billions in committed capital) gives ample raw material for Data Center Map to keep adding new listings; reaching 195 by year-end requires only ~21 more (about 7/month), in line with or below the recent pace, so the growth-trajectory case for YES is strong provided the pace doesn't sharply decelerate.
NOT FOUND: No monthly or weekly historical snapshot archive directly from Data Center Map to confirm the exact shape of the growth curve between April 2025 and September 2026 (relying on periodic Axios citations); no explicit statement from Data Center Map about which of the 135 "planned" Cleanview projects have already been added to its 174-count or are queued for near-term addition.
report: no case
YES means: Data Center Map's Pennsylvania listing count reaches at least 195 by end of 2026.
- [2026-08-18] Gov. Shapiro signed Executive Order 2026-05, a major regulatory reversal that
directed the Department of Environmental Protection to only review permit applications if developers have made a legally binding commitment to meet the Governor's Responsible Infrastructure Development (GRID) Requirements and have received local approval
, a structural brake on new project pipelines feeding future listings. https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2026-press-releases/governor-shapiro-signs-executive-order-on-data-center-developmen
- [2026-08-18] The order
removes all data center developments, including those by Amazon, from the fast-track permitting program, and no data centers will be considered for the program moving forward
, directly slowing the conversion of proposals into operating/listed facilities. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/josh-shapiro-data-center-order-20260818.html
- [2026-08-19] Analysis notes the order, "most significantly,"
prohibits officials from issuing state permits for data center projects until after the developer has demonstrated it has complied with local plans and received all required municipal approvals
, adding a new veto point that can stall or kill projects before they'd ever appear as "listed" facilities. https://theconversation.com/data-center-projects-in-pennsylvania-face-stronger-local-scrutiny-after-shapiros-executive-order-290136
- [2026-08-18] Public opinion has turned sharply hostile:
In a June poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, 76% of registered Pennsylvania voters said they would oppose a data center in their communities. Only 24% of voters said they approve how Shapiro is handling data centers in Pennsylvania
, indicating political and local-approval headwinds are likely to intensify, not fade, before year-end. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/josh-shapiro-data-center-order-20260818.html
- [2026-08-18] Even the governor's own framing singles out a large share of the pipeline as speculative:
Shapiro took specific issue with the more than 100 speculative projects across the state, which include some from real estate developers who are seeking building approvals without determining or disclosing the company for which they would be storing the data
— implying many pipeline "projects" that trackers might eventually list are unlikely to convert to real, operating facilities at all. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/josh-shapiro-data-center-order-20260818.html
- [2026-07-13] Separately from the executive order, the legislature has been advancing its own brakes:
legislation that would allow Pennsylvania municipalities to temporarily halt new data center projects while updating local zoning rules advanced in the state Senate, with the Pennsylvania Senate Rules & Executive Nominations Committee voting 13-4 to approve Senate Bill 1345
, which could let individual towns impose up to 18-month moratoriums, compounding the state-level slowdown. https://broadbandbreakfast.com/pennsylvania-senate-advances-bill-allowing-18-month-data-center-moratoriums/
- [2026-06-01] A more sweeping statewide moratorium bill is also pending:
Senator Katie Muth filed Senate Bill 1359, Pennsylvania's first comprehensive moratorium bill to establish a three-year pause on siting and permitting of hyperscale data centers
, showing the legislative environment is actively working to reduce net-new development, not merely tolerate the status quo. https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2026/06/01/pa-senator-katie-muth-introduces-comprehensive-bipartisan-data-center-moratorium/
- [2026-08-19] Even sympathetic activists argue the order under-delivers on halting growth, with Food & Water Watch's state director saying
"While stopping short of issuing a moratorium on new data centers, Shapiro's executive order accuses developers of 'predatory' behavior against local communities"
— confirming that the order's intent, if not its literal text, is to choke off the pipeline that has been driving 2025-2026 listing growth. https://whyy.org/articles/shapiro-data-centers-executive-order-pennsylvania/
- [2026-08-18] The state's own official disclosure suggests the pre-order pipeline was thinner than raw press-count growth implied: Shapiro's office told reporters
there are six data center projects under construction in Pennsylvania, and 10 have received at least one state-level permit approval
— a small number of genuinely advanced projects relative to the ~21 net-new listings needed to hit 195 by year-end.
- [2026-09-29] A rival tracker (cleanview.co) shows an even starker gap between "operating" and "listed/planned" data centers in Pennsylvania:
There are 15 operating data centers in Pennsylvania with a combined capacity of 311 MW, and 130 planned projects that would add 17,855 MW of additional capacity
, underscoring that most of the pipeline remains unbuilt and now faces new local-approval gates before any tracker (including Data Center Map) would count them as active/listed. https://cleanview.co/data-centers/pennsylvania
BOTTOM LINE: A sweeping regulatory reversal (Shapiro's Aug-18-2026 executive order pulling data centers from fast-track permitting and requiring prior local approval), stacked with pending state-legislative moratorium/zoning-pause bills and 76% public opposition in June polling, gives concrete new mechanisms by which the rapid Data Center Map listing growth seen through September could decelerate sharply in Q4 2026, making the ~21-listing gap to 195 harder to close than a naive trend extrapolation suggests.
NOT FOUND: No direct evidence that Data Center Map itself has slowed its listing additions since the Aug-18 order (no post-order monthly count was located between Sep-29 and year-end); no data on how many of the 174 currently-listed facilities are "under construction/planned" versus operational, which would clarify how exposed the count is to permitting delays.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
42% conf
| Yes | 50% |
| No | 50% |
(0) Not resolved. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but research read the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-29 and found 174 listings. That leaves 21 still needed to reach 195.
(a) About three months remain until the end-2026 snapshot, with trading closing 2027-01-07.
(b) Status quo: 174 stays below 195, so the outcome depends entirely on the listing pace. The count went from about 100 in Dec 2025 to 174 by late Sep 2026, roughly 7-8 per month. The required pace is about 7 per month, which is essentially the historical average and gives a knife-edge setup.
(c) NO scenario: additions slow in Q4. Causes could be Shapiro's Aug-18 executive order removing fast-track permitting and requiring local approval, pending moratorium bills, and 76% local opposition. Also, the site adds listings in lumpy batches (clusters like Allentown's 32 and Pottsville's 15), so a quiet quarter could leave the count in the 180s.
(d) YES scenario: Data Center Map keeps adding facilities, including planned ones from the large Cleanview-documented pipeline of 130+ planned projects. One or two batch additions would clear 195 easily.
The Kalshi anchor is 55% (bid 51 / ask 54). It fell from 77% over 30 days before rebounding, which may mean traders watching the live page saw a slowdown in September. With the required pace equal to the trend and real deceleration risk, I stay near the coin flip, slightly below the market.
claude-opus-5-5
42% conf
| Yes | 50% |
| No | 50% |
(0) The condition is not yet met. The research reports' read of Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page shows 174 listings as of 2026-09-29, 21 short of 195. My own direct fetch of the resolution source failed (HTTP 429), so that figure is secondhand. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 count; trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No. Getting to Yes needs roughly 7 net new listings per month. That is close to the trend: from 'over 100' in Dec 2025 (Axios) to 174 now works out to about 7-8 per month. (c) No: Shapiro's Aug-18 executive order ended fast-track permitting and required local approval first, and 76% of voters oppose local data centers. If those, or simple lumpiness in Data Center Map's manual curation, slow additions to 4-5 a month, the year ends in the 180s. (d) Yes: the site keeps adding facilities at its 2026 pace, drawing on a large announced pipeline (Cleanview counts about 130 planned projects). Data Center Map often lists planned or under-construction sites before permits are granted, so it could clear 195 in December. The Kalshi price of about 55% (bid 51 / ask 54) sits almost exactly on the extrapolated trend line. Its 22-point drop over 30 days followed by an 11-point rebound over 7 days suggests traders are watching the live count and saw a slowdown and then fresh additions. I have no post-order monthly data to beat that, so I sit at a coin flip, shading slightly below the market for the regulatory headwinds.
claude-opus-5-5
40% conf
| Yes | 48% |
| No | 52% |
(0) Not yet met. The research's live read of Data Center Map on 2026-09-29 shows 174 Pennsylvania listings, 21 short of 195. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed (HTTP 429), so even that figure is one unconfirmed read. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot, and trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) Status quo: if listings stall, the count stays near 174 and the market resolves No. Yes needs about 7 net additions per month. (c) No scenario: listings slow or come in lumps. Shapiro's Aug-18 executive order, moratorium bills and local opposition shrink the pipeline of newly announced projects. Deletions or reclassifications, like Philadelphia apparently falling from 34 to 29 since December, offset additions and leave the count in the 185-192 range. (d) Yes scenario: the roughly 8-per-month pace since December (from ~100+ to 174) continues, with new campus entries in Allentown, Harrisburg and Pottsville. The 135-project Cleanview pipeline supplies plenty of candidates, pushing the count past 195 in December. The 'over 100' December figure is imprecise; if it was really 110-120, the recent pace is only about 6-7 per month, right at or below what is needed. The Kalshi price is about 55%, down 22 points over 30 days, which suggests traders watching the page saw slower growth recently, then up 11 points this week. Given knife-edge extrapolation, lumpy additions, and a new regulatory brake, I shade slightly below the market.
gpt-5.6-sol
63% conf
| Yes | 57% |
| No | 43% |
(0) The condition is not already met: the September 29 resolution-source read reports 174 Pennsylvania data centers, 21 short of the 195 threshold, although the direct tool request received an HTTP 429 and therefore adds some source-access risk. (a) About 93 days remain until December 31, 2026, requiring roughly seven net new listings per month. (b) If the count does not change, the market resolves No. (c) No results if additions slow materially following Pennsylvania's August permitting restrictions and local-approval requirements, or if Data Center Map adds fewer planned projects than the coarse historical trend suggests. (d) Yes results if the tracker sustains its recent estimated pace of roughly 7–8 additions per month, supported by broad statewide growth and a reported pipeline of 135 planned projects. I anchor on Kalshi's 55% Yes price and move only slightly upward to 57% because the required pace is near or below the recent average, while uncertain historical snapshots, tracker methodology, and the absence of post-order monthly data prevent a stronger adjustment.
gpt-5.6-sol
64% conf
| Yes | 57% |
| No | 43% |
(0) The condition is not yet met: the September 29 Data Center Map read reports 174 Pennsylvania listings, 21 short of the required 195, although the direct resolution-source tool received an HTTP 429 and thus leaves modest verification risk. (a) Roughly 93 days remain until December 31, 2026, requiring about seven net additions per month. (b) If the count does not change, the market resolves No. (c) No results if additions slow materially after Pennsylvania's August 18 permitting restrictions and growing local opposition, or if Data Center Map does not promptly list planned projects. (d) Yes results if the tracker sustains its recent approximate pace of eight additions per month, supported by growth from just over 100 in December 2025 to 174 now and a large statewide project pipeline. Kalshi's 55% Yes price is the primary anchor; I move slightly higher because the required pace is modestly below the recent observed pace and growth is distributed across numerous Pennsylvania markets. The adjustment remains small because historical snapshots are sparse, Data Center Map's methodology is unclear, and many cited pipeline projects may already be represented in the 174 or may not qualify for listing this year.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
52%
(50% confidence)
Yes: 52%
No: 48%
Mean of 5 draws (0.50, 0.50, 0.48, 0.57, 0.57). (0) Not resolved. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but research read the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-29 and found 174 listings. That leaves 21 still needed to reach 195.
(a) About three months remain until the end-2026 snapshot, with trading closing 2027-01-07.
(b) Status quo: 174 stays below 195, so the outcome depends entirely on the listing pace. The count went from about 100 in Dec 2025 to 174 by late Sep 2026, roughly 7-8 per month. The required pace is about 7 per month, which is essentially the historical average and gives a knife-edge setup.
(c) NO scenario: additions slow in Q4. Causes could be Shapiro's Aug-18 executive order removing fast-track permitting and requiring local approval, pending moratorium bills, and 76% local opposition. Also, the site adds listings in lumpy batches (clusters like Allentown's 32 and Pottsville's 15), so a quiet quarter could leave the count in the 180s.
(d) YES scenario: Data Center Map keeps adding facilities, including planned ones from the large Cleanview-documented pipeline of 130+ planned projects. One or two batch additions would clear 195 easily.
The Kalshi anchor is 55% (bid 51 / ask 54). It fell from 77% over 30 days before rebounding, which may mean traders watching the live page saw a slowdown in September. With the required pace equal to the trend and real deceleration risk, I stay near the coin flip, slightly below the market.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 107.3s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.