Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the target federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% (from 3.50%–3.75%), the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12–0 vote; this is the "Sep" leg of the three-decision window and it resolved as a HIKE. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent... Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's "dot plot" of economic projections showed 16 of 18 members projecting at least one more rate hike this year; four of the policymakers expect two more hikes this year, and the chances of at least one more hike this year stood at 87% after Warsh's remarks. - [2026-09-16] Officials see the headline PCE price index at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for this year, both 0.1pp higher than June, and don't expect to reach the 2% inflation target until 2029. - [2026-09-24] CME Group's FedWatch tool put the probability of an October raise at 77.5% on Thursday, up from around 53% on Wednesday, as recent data suggests the U.S. economy remains strong while inflation remains above 3%. - [2026-09-24/25] New York Fed President John Williams said it would be "reasonable" to expect another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, adding "it's likely that another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year." - [2026-09-24] Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned there was "an increased likelihood" that inflation will stay "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. - [2026-09-26] Multiple regional Fed presidents struck a coordinated hawkish tone: Cleveland Fed's Hammack said inflation has remained elevated for more than five years and emphasized the need to maintain restrictive policy; Kansas City Fed's Schmid said the Fed "still has not solved the inflation problem"; New York Fed's Williams said repeated supply shocks could continue to push up medium- and long-term prices. - [~2026-09-23] A market-tracking source reported CME FedWatch showing a 54.2% probability of a 25bp hike at October vs 45.8% for a hold, with December's probability of unchanged rates dropping to just 10.8%, and markets pricing a 47.8% chance of a cumulative 25bp increase and 41.4% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike by year-end (dated slightly before the Sept 24 Williams-driven jump to 77.5%, indicating momentum toward hikes accelerating into late September). - [~2026-09-16] One post-meeting commentary noted odds also remained high for a Dec. hike, as well as up to several more hikes over the next 12 months, while another hike as soon as October is seen as possible, but potentially too aggressive and unnecessary, given proximity to the mid-term elections. - [2026-09-16] Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in his press conference: inflation has been "too high ... for too long," adding "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed" and "Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied." - [2026-10-28 & 2026-12-09 (scheduled)] The remaining two decisions in this three-meeting window are the October 27–28 and December 8–9 FOMC meetings, both still ahead of the market's December 9 close; no rate decision has been made for either yet. BOTTOM LINE: The first leg (September) has already resolved as a confirmed HIKE per the Fed's own press release, and market-implied odds and a wave of hawkish Fed speak (Williams, Collins, Hammack, Schmid) through late September point toward a strong likelihood of at least one more hike (most likely October) with December also seen as hike-leaning, though a "hike-hike-hike" three-for-three outcome still depends on incoming inflation/labor data and remains not yet confirmed for the final two meetings. NOT FOUND: No official Fed communication or FedWatch snapshot postdating September 26, 2026 was available; the precise, most current (as of Sep 29) CME FedWatch percentages for October and December were not independently retrievable beyond the Sep 23–24 data points cited above.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC unanimously voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, its the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate — confirmed first leg of a potential hike-hike-hike sequence. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] This was the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since 2023 and indicated another to come , ending a run of pauses/cuts. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] Dot-plot base rates favor further hikes: sixteen of eighteen FOMC participants expect at least one more rate hike before year-end, and four expect two , with 12 meeting participants projecting the yearend 2026 fed funds target range to be a quarter-point higher than today's 3.75% to 4.00% target range . https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot - [2026-09-12] Wall-Street base case explicitly forecasts the Sep-Oct-Dec hike-hike-hike path: Ian Lyngen's baseline forecast is 25 basis point increases in July, October, and December respectively. If this path is realized, the federal funds rate will return to the 4.25% to 4.5% range—equivalent to the peak before rate cuts at the end of 2024 . https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605828687 - [2026-09-12] Vanguard's economist frames three-in-a-row as a reasonable central scenario but stresses wide uncertainty: Josh Hirt... stated, the reasonable range for rate hikes is one to six times, and three is just the starting point for consideration; the final path will depend on the evolution of inflation data . https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605828687 - [2026-09-12] Historical base rate cited by economists: Economists generally point out that the Federal Reserve rarely settles for just a single rate hike in its history... once rate hikes begin, policy inertia tends to drive multiple consecutive actions , though a documented counter-example exists: in 1997, the Fed raised rates only once and then took no further action for 18 months before shifting to rate cuts . https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605828687 - [~2026-09-25] Post-meeting futures pricing shows the market leaning toward continued hikes: As of market close on September 25, 2026, futures markets are pricing the rate to rise to about 4.2% by December and reach roughly 4.8% by September 2027 , consistent with two more hikes by year-end. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [~2026-09-28] Market-implied odds for the very next (October) decision put another hike as the modal outcome: Markets currently price roughly a 66-67% probability of another quarter-point hike at the October meeting . https://www.lendmire.com/three-consecutive-weekly-rate-rises/ - [2026-09-24] J.P. Morgan's house view supports two but not three hikes: J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts another quarter-point raise in December, but does not expect a longer-term hiking cycle , implying October could be a pause with hikes bracketing it (Sep, Dec) rather than three straight. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts - [2026-09-25] BMO's house call is the most direct match to the exact three-meeting sequence: BMO expects consecutive rate hikes in October and December, with a total of three increases potentially wiping out all rate cut gains for 2025 , i.e., Sep+Oct+Dec hikes back to 4.25–4.50%. https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605828687 - [Historical reference class] The prior three FOMC cycles show three-in-a-row moves are common but always in the same direction as cuts, not hikes: the central bank shifted course in September 2024, implementing three consecutive rate cuts to bring the FFR to the range of 4.25%-4.50%... The Fed went on a similar path in 2025, holding rates steady until September where they then issued three consecutive cuts to bring the FFR to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% before raising rates again in September 2026 . This shows the FOMC's recent pattern is capable of sustaining three consecutive same-direction moves (albeit cuts), a directly relevant precedent for now doing the same with hikes. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 BOTTOM LINE: There is no historical precedent yet for three consecutive Fed hikes in this specific 2024-2026 cycle (only three-in-a-row cuts have occurred), but the FOMC has just demonstrated willingness to move three times in a row in the same direction, and current dot-plots/futures pricing (~66-67% for an October hike, most large banks projecting at least one more hike by December) put the base rate for at least two more hikes meaningfully above 50%, while full hike-hike-hike is a plausible but not universally-shared base case (BMO's explicit forecast vs. J.P. Morgan's "one more, not three" view). NOT FOUND: A precise, current CME FedWatch or Polymarket-style aggregated probability specifically for the joint "hike at all three of Sep, Oct, and Dec" outcome; also no long-run historical frequency count of "three consecutive hikes" episodes across all past Fed tightening cycles (only qualitative statements that hikes rarely come as one-offs, with the 1997 single-hike-then-pause cited as a named exception).

YES means: the Fed hikes at all three meetings — September (already confirmed hike to 3.75%–4.00%), and then hikes again at both the October 27–28 and December 8–9 FOMC meetings, delivering a hike-hike-hike sequence. - [2026-09-28] The most current CME FedWatch reading available shows a **72.3% probability** of a 25bp hike at the October 28 meeting, up from the 66-67% level reported a few days earlier — momentum in the hike direction has continued building into the final days of September, not faded. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [2026-09-16] Immediately following Warsh's post-meeting press conference, CME FedWatch showed the probability of at least one more hike this year at 87%, and — critically for the exact three-for-three path — the chance of **two more hikes this year already stood at 37%**, up sharply from 27% just hours earlier, indicating meaningful market weight on the full hike-hike-hike outcome even on decision day itself. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-08-28] Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech set a credibility trap that argues for follow-through: analysts noted "You are basically setting yourself up so that if you don't hike in September, people may ask what's going on," a dynamic that applies with equal force to October and December once the September hike is delivered and inflation stays elevated. - [2026-09-26] Market commentary tied a synthesis of the dot plot and futures directly to the specific event: Sixteen of eighteen FOMC participants expect at least one more rate hike before year-end, and four expect two; markets currently price roughly a 66-67% probability of another quarter-point hike at the October meeting , reinforcing that the median dot (4.1% year-end) is only consistent with either "one more hike" or the Sep+Oct+Dec path, not a pure pause scenario. - [2026-09-24] Mortgage-market pass-through is already behaving as if more hikes are coming: the 30-year fixed rate rose for four consecutive weeks to 7.03% and the 10-year Treasury yield held near its highest level since 2007, showing bond markets are pricing sustained Fed tightening rather than a one-and-done move. https://www.lendmire.com/three-consecutive-weekly-rate-rises/ - [2026-09-25] BMO's house forecast is the most literal match to the YES outcome in this window: BMO expects consecutive hikes in October and December, which combined with the confirmed September hike would produce the exact three-in-a-row sequence needed to resolve YES (previously cited by colleagues, reinforced by the same date's market pricing showing futures-implied year-end rate near 4.2-4.8%). - [2026-09-16] Persistent, above-target inflation gives the Fed a standing justification to keep hiking through year-end: officials' own projections show headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for 2026, with 2% not reached until 2029 — a multi-year inflation overshoot is the structural precondition that makes repeated, not one-off, tightening the more probable path. - [2026-09-01] The upcoming August PCE print (BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report) was due September 30, 2026, just after the October meeting's data lock-in window — any upside surprise there would harden the case for the October hike already priced at 72.3% and keep December on a hiking track. https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-september-2026/ - [Historical precedent] The Fed's own recent behavior shows willingness to sustain three consecutive same-direction moves: it delivered three straight cuts in September–December 2024 and again in September–December 2025 before pivoting to hikes in September 2026 — establishing an operational precedent (already cited by colleagues) that the same disciplined, momentum-driven cadence could now apply to hikes. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on a confirmed September hike, an October probability that has risen to 72.3% as of September 28 (the most recent data available), a Fed credibility dynamic (Warsh's hawkish signaling) that makes follow-through likely, sustained above-target inflation projected through the FOMC's own multi-year forecasts, and at least one major bank (BMO) explicitly forecasting the exact Sep+Oct+Dec hike sequence. NOT FOUND: A CME FedWatch or Polymarket-equivalent probability specifically for December (post-October) hike odds newer than the September 24-25 range cited by colleagues; no post-September-28 Fed communications or an August PCE print reaction (due September 30, after this research window) that would further update October/December hike odds.

YES means: the Fed hikes the federal funds rate target's upper bound at all three of its next meetings — September (already done), October 27–28, and December 8–9, 2026. - [2026-09-25] J.P. Morgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli gave an explicit case for a September–hike-then-October-pause pattern, not three in a row: "Setting aside the midterms, a credible case for passing [on another hike] in October is that ..." — the article explains this rests on the idea that J.P. Morgan Global Research continues to look for one more hike at the December meeting... forecasts another quarter-point raise in December, but does not expect a longer-term hiking cycle , i.e., their base case is Hike-Pause-Hike, not Hike-Hike-Hike. - [2026-09-25] Feroli's added rationale for skipping October specifically cites the need for the Fed to observe effects of its just-delivered hike before acting again — a standard "wait and see" argument that directly threatens the "three-in-a-row" thesis for this dimension. - [2026-10-02 scheduled] The delayed September Employment Situation report (originally due earlier but rescheduled) is scheduled to be published on Friday, October 2, 2026 , just three weeks before the October FOMC meeting — a single soft print here could tip a data-dependent committee toward a pause, especially with consensus already only expecting modest job growth. - [2026-09-26] Bloomberg's survey of economists for that same September report shows consensus expects only nonfarm payrolls rose about 90,000... The unemployment rate is seen remaining at a one-year low of 4.1% — modest, not accelerating, job growth, giving doves ammunition to argue hikes should pause to avoid overtightening into a cooling labor market. - [2026-09-24] Indeed's Hiring Lab flagged real labor-market softness beneath the surface: Unemployment held at 4.1% in July... continued joblessness gives the Fed confidence they can raise rates without breaking the economy, however shrinking labor supply makes it mathematically harder for unemployment to rise, so a 4.1% rate today says something very different about labor dynamics than it has historically — a mechanism doves could cite to argue the labor market is weaker than the headline rate suggests, favoring a pause. - [2026-09-16] President Trump publicly and repeatedly attacked the September hike, saying rates are far too high and demanding cuts: Trump said he still has confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, but also said he wants the central bank to slash interest rates to 1% "or less" , and "I'm relying on Kevin, but he's got a very tough board... I told Kevin, I said, 'You might as well vote with the board because it's just not going to matter.' The board is very hostile... They're very political. They're doing the wrong thing... They're a bunch of politicians." This sustained, escalating political pressure — unusual in its directness — raises the odds of internal or White House-driven hesitancy before the October/December decisions, particularly with midterms approaching. - [2026-09-25] Feroli's own framing explicitly separates "midterms" as a live consideration apart from the economic argument, an implicit acknowledgment that the November 2026 midterm elections sit between the October and December meetings and could make a second consecutive hike (October) politically awkward for a Fed already under visible White House attack. - [Historical precedent] Colleagues' prior research already notes the 1997 episode where the Fed hiked once and then paused 18 months — a documented precedent that single/isolated hikes, not three-in-a-row, have occurred before, meaning "hike inertia" is not guaranteed. - [Vote-count context] Even the confirmed September hike was unanimous only after under-the-hood divisions were visible during the tightening debate; per morningstar-style reporting on the analogous 2025 cutting cycle, cycles of consecutive same-direction moves in 2025 were "far from unanimous" with growing numbers of dissents at each successive meeting — a pattern that, if repeated on the hiking side, could produce a "shadow dissent" bloc large enough to force a pause at October or December given how thin the coalition for a second consecutive hike may be. - [2026-09-24] J.P. Morgan's own explicit framing — "does not expect a longer-term hiking cycle" — implies their model is Sep-hike, Oct-pause, Dec-hike (Other outcome under this market's rules, since it's not Hike-Hike-Hike), directly contradicting the three-in-a-row path and showing a major Wall Street desk assigns real weight to a NO resolution. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on J.P. Morgan's explicit, named forecast of a hike-pause-hike (not hike-hike-hike) pattern, reinforced by a softening jobs backdrop, an imminent September jobs report landing right before the October meeting that could tip a still-divided committee toward caution, sustained and escalating Trump political pressure on the Fed heading into the midterms, and historical precedent (1997) that hiking cycles need not proceed in an uninterrupted straight line. NOT FOUND: No confirmed FOMC statement, vote tally, or dot-plot exists yet for the October or December 2026 meetings; no precise, current CME FedWatch probability specifically for a "pause" outcome at either remaining meeting was retrievable past September 26, 2026 in these searches; no direct evidence of internal FOMC dissent votes planned for October.