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Will Pennsylvania have at least 185 data centers listed in 2026?

kalshiScience and Technology·2026-09-28·view on kalshi ↗
67%
Agent
64%
Market Price
+3.2%
Edge
54%
Confidence
20,445
Volume
2.0c
Spread
100
Days to resolution
6
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.64, 0.66, 0.65, 0.72, 0.69). (0) Not yet met. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but the research reports quote the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-28 as listing 174 data centers, 11 short of 185. That figure is load-bearing and only research-verified. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot; trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No, so Yes needs about 3.7 net new listings per month. (d) The long-run trajectory on this source favours Yes: 71 in Feb 2025, 79 in Apr 2025, 100+ in Dec 2025 and 174 in Sep 2026, roughly 8 per month recently. Listings are operator-submitted and lumpy, so a single multi-building campus in Allentown or Pottsville could add 10 at once. (c) Against that, the Kalshi market opened in mid-August, has traded 52-79% and now sits at 64% (last close 59%). Traders watching the page daily would likely not hold Yes this low if the 8-per-month pace were continuing, which hints at recent deceleration. Other No factors are local moratoria, project rejections, and the possibility of delistings or duplicate cleanups reducing the count. I anchor on the 64% market price, with a slight tilt from the historical growth rate offset by the implied slowdown and the unverified 174 figure.
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
20 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: kalshi_direct resolution_source kalshi_related polymarket_related
Planner reasoning
This market resolves on Data Center Map's count for Pennsylvania, so the resolution_source page (the current count and its trend) is the key input, and kalshi_direct gives the price anchor. Sibling strike markets in the same series show the crowd's full distribution. Polymarket is unlikely to list this, but a quick check costs little.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 185** (KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T185) - Current price (probability): 64.00% (live; bid 63% / ask 65%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 59.00% - 7-day price change: -3.00% - 30-day price change: -3.00% - Average daily volume: 1496 contracts - Price range: 52.00% - 79.00% - Data points: 13 days - resolution_source (failed): https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/: HTTP 429 - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. series KXPADATACENTERS: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'data centers': ok - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 3 matches. keyword 'data centers': 1 markets | keyword 'Pennsylvania data center': 2 markets Research loops, bottom lines - current state: The resolution source itself (Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page) already lists 174 facilities as of today (2026-09-28), and its own historical reporting shows a rapid, accelerating count trajectory (71→79→100+→174 from Feb 2025 to Sept 2026); reaching the 185 threshold needs only ~11 more listings before year-end, a small increment relative to recent monthly growth rates. - base rate: There is no established base rate specific to "Data Center Map Pennsylvania listing counts reaching a threshold" — this is a narrow, idiosyncratic metric from one commercial directory that updates opportunistically as facilities are added by DCM staff/users, not a standardized statistical series with historical precedent; the only comparable evidence is PA's broadly documented AI/data-center construction boom, which supports continued growth but gives no precise basis for predicting whether DCM' - yes case: The YES case rests on DCM's own demonstrated recent growth cadence (100+ in Dec 2025 to 174 in Sept 2026, an average of roughly 8 listings/month) needing to add just 11 more listings by Dec 31, 2026 — a small increment relative to that trend — backed by a large, broad-based, multi-market pipeline of PA data-center projects (DEP's 65 tracked projects, over 100 proposals in NE PA alone, and 100+ statewide gubernatorial-office-acknowledged proposals) that gives DCM ample raw material to keep adding - no case: While DCM's live PA count (174) is close to the 185 threshold, the underlying growth is driven by operator self-registration of largely small/colocation facilities rather than the large AI/hyperscale proposals dominating headlines — and those large proposals face a mounting wall of township moratoriums, project rejections, grid-capacity warnings, and pending state legislation that could slow or freeze new listings before Dec 31, 2026, giving a plausible path to falling short of 185.
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
kalshi_direct OK 0.2s 1 ## This Market's Kalshi Data **At least 185** (KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T185) - Current price (probability): 64.00% (live; bid 63% / ask 65%) - Last daily close (2026-09-28): 59.00% - 7-day price change: -3.00% - 30-day price change: -3.00% - Average daily volume: 1496 contracts - Price range: 52.00
resolution_source FAILED 0.3s 1 https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/: HTTP 429
kalshi_related OK 0.6s 1 1 related markets / summaries. series KXPADATACENTERS: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'data centers': ok
polymarket_related OK 0.8s 3 Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 3 matches. keyword 'data centers': 1 markets | keyword 'Pennsylvania data center': 2 markets
research loops · 4/4 ok · 17 searches · 5 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 38s 5 1 4898 chars
base rate OK 31s 5 3 4393 chars
yes case OK 27s 3 1 4249 chars
no case SNIPPETS 42s 4 0 6187 chars · no page read; snippets only
report: current state
- [2025-02-13] Data Center Map listed **71** data centers in Pennsylvania, per Axios Pittsburgh, citing "Pennsylvania has 71 data centers, according to Data Center Map, about 42% of which are in the Pittsburgh area." (https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/02/13/pennsylvania-data-center-job-growth) - [2025-04-16] Data Center Map listed **79** data centers in Pennsylvania: "Pennsylvania has 79 data centers, about 42% of which are in the Pittsburgh area, including a small cluster at Nova Place on the North Side, per Data Center Map." (https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/04/16/tracking-data-centers-pittsburgh) - [2025-12-18] Data Center Map listed **over 100** data centers in Pennsylvania: "There are over 100 data centers in Pennsylvania, according to Data Center Map, up from 79 in April. The Pittsburgh region has the most (36) of any in the state, followed by Philadelphia (34) and Scranton (9)." (https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion) - [2026-02-19] Pew Research Center's data-center analysis used a Data Center Map snapshot "Data on the number and location of U.S. data centers comes from Data Center Map, one of the oldest and most comprehensive industry databases. It is current as of Feb. 19, 2026." (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/13/most-new-data-centers-in-the-us-are-coming-to-rural-areas/) - [2026-09-28] The Data Center Map Pennsylvania page (the market's stated resolution source) currently states: "We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania." (https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/) - [2026-09-28] Market breakdown on the primary source shows Pittsburgh 36, Allentown 32, Philadelphia 29, Harrisburg 20, Pottsville 15, and smaller counts across Reading, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Lancaster, Ebensburg, Valley Forge, Bethlehem, Lebanon, State College, Lewistown, Lehigh Valley and Towanda, totaling 174. (https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/) - [2026-08-25] Pennsylvania's governor's office notes ongoing proposal volume: "Currently, the Commonwealth is aware of at least 100 proposed data centers - the vast majority of which have not formally approached the Commonwealth for any discussion of permitting or taken meaningful steps toward development — no AI data center is currently operational." (https://www.pa.gov/governor/topics/data-centers) — note this figure concerns large AI proposals, not the broader Data Center Map listing count, which already includes many smaller colocation facilities. - [2026-08-05] A separate tracker (USDataMap, not the resolution source) put Pennsylvania at only 33 tracked facilities as of its last scan, illustrating how widely counts vary between different trackers/methodologies. (https://usdatamap.com/) - [2026-02-20] Another independent tracker (dcmap.us) reported "Pennsylvania has 148 tracked data center facilities and projects: 83 operational, 7 under construction, 53 planned, 3 paused, and 2 inactive or historical." (https://dcmap.us/states/pennsylvania/) — again a different (lower) figure than Data Center Map's own listing, underscoring that only the Data Center Map count is decisive for this contract. - [2025-10-20] Penn State Extension notes the fragmented data landscape: "Although no public agency currently tracks the number of DCs in Pennsylvania, several private firms maintain online listings of commercial facilities that lease server space. Their information indicates Pennsylvania had between 57 and 97 of these DCs as of October 2025." (https://extension.psu.edu/data-centers-and-water-use-in-pennsylvania) - [2025-12-18] Continued momentum is reflected in policy/industry coverage: "Fueled by incentives, investment and abundant natural gas, Pennsylvania is accelerating its data center buildout as developers rush to meet rising AI energy demand. State leaders like Gov. Josh Shapiro and U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick expect AI to propel growth, jobs and the state's tech ambitions." (https://www.axios.com/local/pittsburgh/2025/12/18/pennsylvania-data-center-expansion) BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source itself (Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page) already lists 174 facilities as of today (2026-09-28), and its own historical reporting shows a rapid, accelerating count trajectory (71→79→100+→174 from Feb 2025 to Sept 2026); reaching the 185 threshold needs only ~11 more listings before year-end, a small increment relative to recent monthly growth rates. NOT FOUND: No official "end of year 2026" snapshot or archived Data Center Map count between Feb 2026 (148 on a different tracker) and today's live 174 figure was found, so the exact month-by-month trajectory on Data Center Map itself between Dec 2025 (100+) and Sept 2026 (174) could not be pinned down; no explicit statement from Data Center Map about planned additions before Dec 31, 2026 was found.
report: base rate
- [2026-09-28] Data Center Map's live Pennsylvania page currently states "We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania." This is the exact metric the market resolves on, and it stands ~11 listings below the 185 threshold with roughly three months left in 2026. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/ - [2026-09-28] Market-level breakdown shows growth is fairly broad-based rather than concentrated in one metro: Pittsburgh (36), Allentown (32), Philadelphia (29), Harrisburg (20) and Pottsville (15) are the largest markets, with several smaller markets (Reading, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Lancaster, etc.) in single/low double digits — sourced from the same official DCM page. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/pennsylvania/ - [2026-04-30] An independent OpenStreetMap-based tracker (Mapscaping) counted only "Pennsylvania has 13 mapped data centers, ranking 23rd in the United States by facility count" as of April 2026, illustrating that different trackers give wildly different counts (13 vs. DCM's 174) — underscoring that DCM's own listing methodology, not the "true" number of facilities, is what matters for this contract's base rate. - [2026-02-20] A separate tracking site (dcmap.us) reported "Pennsylvania has 148 tracked data center facilities and projects, including 7 under construction and 53 planned" in February 2026, versus DCM's 174 in September 2026 — suggesting DCM's count (or similar trackers) rose over the year, consistent with an active listing-growth process, though not a like-for-like comparison since it's a different database. - [2026-08-21] datacenters.com (a different aggregator) listed only "The Pennsylvania, United States Data Centers Market includes a total of 73 data centers and 0 data center providers" as of August 2026, again highlighting that "number of data centers" varies enormously (73–174+) depending on which registry/database is used — DCM's own count is the only one that resolves this contract, and it does not track 1:1 with underlying construction activity or other trackers' growth rates. - [2025-12-01] Reporting from Spotlight PA/Pittsburgh Media Partnership describes a rapid escalation of PA data-center proposals through 2025, noting "Lackawanna and Luzerne counties have now received proposals to construct over 100 data center buildings across more than a dozen campuses" — indicating strong underlying project pipeline growth in the state, which could eventually feed into DCM's listings but with an uncertain and likely lagged conversion rate (DCM listings tend to reflect built/operating or announced facilities added by DCM's own editors, not simply every proposal). - [2026-05-05] Industry research firm DC Byte notes Pennsylvania has become "two of the most dynamic data center markets in the United States, combining strong energy foundations, hyperscale demand, and supportive policies to drive large-scale growth" , reflecting a strong secular growth trend in PA's data-center sector generally, though this is about capacity/investment, not the DCM listing count specifically. - [No fixed historical baseline found for prior years' DCM Pennsylvania counts] I could not locate an archived or previously reported DCM count for Pennsylvania from early-2026 or 2025 to precisely quantify DCM's month-over-month listing growth rate; the closest comparators found (dcmap.us's 148 in Feb 2026, and various third-party counts ranging 13–174) are not from the same database and cannot be used to project a reliable DCM-specific growth trajectory. BOTTOM LINE: There is no established base rate specific to "Data Center Map Pennsylvania listing counts reaching a threshold" — this is a narrow, idiosyncratic metric from one commercial directory that updates opportunistically as facilities are added by DCM staff/users, not a standardized statistical series with historical precedent; the only comparable evidence is PA's broadly documented AI/data-center construction boom, which supports continued growth but gives no precise basis for predicting whether DCM's own count crosses 185 by year-end. NOT FOUND: A verified DCM Pennsylvania count from any date in 2025 or early-to-mid 2026 (to compute an actual growth-rate/trend line for this specific metric); any explicit forecast, poll or prior Kalshi/other market track record for "number of data centers listed" contracts.
report: yes case
YES means: Data Center Map's Pennsylvania listing count reaches at least 185 facilities by the end of 2026 (as measured on the resolution source's own page). - [2026-09-28] Direct fetch of the resolution source confirms the current live count: "We currently have 174 data centers listed, from 17 markets in Pennsylvania." This means only 11 additional listings are needed to cross the 185 threshold, with roughly three months remaining before year-end. - [2026-09-28] The market breakdown fetched directly from the page shows growth is spread across many metros rather than dependent on one hub: Pittsburgh 36, Allentown 32, Philadelphia 29, Harrisburg 20, and Pottsville 15, among 17 total listed markets — meaning DCM only needs marginal additions across several markets, not a single large jump, to reach 185. - [2026-09-01] Pennsylvania's own Department of Environmental Protection Data Center Permit Tracker independently shows a large and growing project pipeline, with the DEP map showing "65 data center projects across the state" and noting "21 of those projects are “confirmed,” meaning the developers have applied for DEP permits" — indicating a steady flow of newly-confirmed, permit-backed projects that DCM's editors could plausibly add to their listings before year-end. - [2025-12-01] Reporting on the 2025 data-center boom notes that in just Lackawanna and Luzerne counties alone, "Lackawanna and Luzerne counties have now received proposals to construct over 100 data center buildings across more than a dozen campuses" — a pipeline far larger than the 11 additional listings DCM needs to hit 185, showing ample raw material for DCM to draw from as facilities move from proposal to construction/operational status. - [2025-12-18]–[2026-09-28] trajectory shows an accelerating cadence on the resolution source itself: the previously documented rise from 100+ listings (Dec 2025) to 174 listings (Sept 2026) implies DCM added roughly 74 listings over about nine months — an average pace of ~8 new listings per month, which if sustained even briefly would clear the 185 mark well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. - [2026-08-25] Pennsylvania's governor's office confirms continued deal flow is far from exhausted, noting the state is "aware of at least 100 proposed data centers," most of which have not yet formally engaged with the Commonwealth — meaning the underlying project pipeline supporting future DCM listings remains large and largely untapped. - [2026-05-05] Industry analysts describe Pennsylvania as one of the most dynamic U.S. data-center markets, citing "strong energy foundations, hyperscale demand, and supportive policies to drive large-scale growth," a macro tailwind consistent with DCM continuing to add newly operational or newly discovered facilities to its Pennsylvania list through year-end. - [2026-09-28] Sub-market pages for individual PA metros (e.g., Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) contain descriptive text referencing higher counts (e.g., "44 data centers in Philadelphia," "44 data centers in Pittsburgh") than the state summary table lists for those same markets (29 and 36 respectively) — while this discrepancy likely reflects template/boilerplate text rather than a literal higher count, it does suggest DCM's internal database may already contain more entries than currently reflected in the state total table, which could resolve into a higher displayed count if the page is refreshed/corrected before year-end. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on DCM's own demonstrated recent growth cadence (100+ in Dec 2025 to 174 in Sept 2026, an average of roughly 8 listings/month) needing to add just 11 more listings by Dec 31, 2026 — a small increment relative to that trend — backed by a large, broad-based, multi-market pipeline of PA data-center projects (DEP's 65 tracked projects, over 100 proposals in NE PA alone, and 100+ statewide gubernatorial-office-acknowledged proposals) that gives DCM ample raw material to keep adding listings. NOT FOUND: No month-by-month DCM-specific count between Dec 2025 (100+) and Sept 2026 (174) was found to confirm a smooth versus lumpy growth pattern; no explicit DCM statement of planned additions or editorial backlog for Pennsylvania before Dec 31, 2026.
report: no case
YES means: Data Center Map's Pennsylvania listing count reaches at least 185 facilities on its live count as of end-of-year 2026 (i.e., the status quo trend continues and accelerates modestly). This dimension argues the NO case — that the count stalls short of 185. - [2026-09-28] Data Center Map's own database documentation states "The data center listings in the database are primarily submitted and maintained directly by the operators" — meaning PA's count growth depends on individual colocation/edge operators self-registering, not on state permitting or construction milestones, a process that can slow unpredictably once existing providers have already listed themselves. (https://www.datacentermap.com/datacenters/) - [2026-09-01] Pennsylvania's own Department of Environmental Protection tracker — the authoritative state record of the current hyperscale/AI buildout — shows "There are no operational data centers in Pennsylvania, according to the state's map" , with "Most of the planned data centers on the map, 44, are 'unconfirmed,' and do not yet have DEP permit applications attached to them" , indicating the large proposal pipeline touted elsewhere is not yet converting into real, listable facilities. (https://keystonenewsroom.com/news/infrastructure/is-a-data-center-planned-near-you-in-pa-find-out-using-this-map/) - [2026-09-10] A community-tracking site notes "Townships across Pennsylvania are adopting 180-day moratoria on data centers so they can draft local ordinances 'in peace' before applications arrive. The wave follows Olyphant's earlier six-month halt and reflects organizing across Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Chester counties." These local curative-amendment pauses (East Whiteland, West Whiteland, Montour County, Madison and Pine Townships) directly delay new facility approvals in exactly the regions (NE Pennsylvania, Chester County) driving recent count growth. (https://www.brockovichdatacenter.com/community-and-legislation.html) - [2026-05-21] Concrete project rejections are already occurring: "On May 21, 2026, East Vincent Township officials unanimously rejected a controversial 1.9-million-square-foot data center proposed for the historic Pennhurst State School and Hospital site. The decision capped months of resident campaigning." Each blocked project is one fewer facility that could ever be added to a listing count. (https://www.brockovichdatacenter.com/community-and-legislation.html) - [2026-07-02] Independent reporting on the coal-town fight notes "Proposals for data centers in Hazle Township and nearby Kline Township are just two of over 60 that have sprung up in the last year in Pennsylvania. Most of them face opposition from those who live nearby." Widespread opposition to the majority of new proposals suggests conversion-to-listing rates for large facilities will likely stay low even as headline proposal counts rise. (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02072026/pennsylvania-coal-town-data-center-moratorium/) - [2026-08-01] A separate state-legislative moratorium push shows political momentum against rapid build-out: organizer testimony states "the shifting attitude about data centers will be a key issue in the November elections... 'I hear from Democrats, Independents, Republicans alike that this issue is deciding how they vote.'" and a House-passed bill would let localities impose up to six-month moratoriums statewide, which if enacted broadly could freeze new approvals through year-end. (https://www.wesanews.org/politics-government/2026-07-01/6-month-data-center-pause-harrisburg) - [2025-12-18 reference] The PJM grid monitor's warning (cited in colleagues' report) that the grid "can't handle more large data centers" adds a structural constraint: interconnection delays for new large facilities mean even approved projects may not reach an operational, listable state before Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-09-28] Cross-tracker divergence remains stark: rival aggregator datacenters.com shows only "The Pennsylvania, United States Data Centers Market includes a total of 73 data centers and 0 data center providers" as of August 2026, and usdatamap.com's scan shows PA with only "#7 · PA · Pennsylvania · 33 facilities" — illustrating that "data center count" is an editorial/self-reported artifact rather than a hard physical inventory, so DCM's 174-to-185 jump is not guaranteed by any underlying construction reality and could stall if PA-based operators simply stop submitting new listings for a few months. - [2026-09-28] Another tracker (cleanview.co) counts only "Total Data Centers · 149 · Operating Data Centers · 15 · Planned Data Centers · 130" for Pennsylvania, reinforcing that of the ~150-175 "data centers" tallied across trackers, only a tiny fraction (15) are confirmed operating — the rest are planned/proposed, and DCM's count could plateau if its editors pause adding non-operational or duplicate planned-project listings. - [2026-07-09] Legal analysis confirms Pennsylvania courts have long held "a municipality may not zone a lawful use out of existence" , but notes lawmakers are actively weighing bills for "a modest 180-day local timeout to a mandatory three-year statewide freeze" — if any statewide freeze legislation advances before year-end, it would directly suppress new facility siting activity that feeds DCM listings. BOTTOM LINE: While DCM's live PA count (174) is close to the 185 threshold, the underlying growth is driven by operator self-registration of largely small/colocation facilities rather than the large AI/hyperscale proposals dominating headlines — and those large proposals face a mounting wall of township moratoriums, project rejections, grid-capacity warnings, and pending state legislation that could slow or freeze new listings before Dec 31, 2026, giving a plausible path to falling short of 185. NOT FOUND: No month-by-month DCM Pennsylvania count between the Dec 2025 (~100) and Sept 2026 (174) readings was located, so the actual recent monthly listing-addition rate (and whether it has already begun decelerating) could not be confirmed; no direct statement from Data Center Map about pausing or slowing PA listings was found.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
45% conf
Yes 64%
No 36%
(0) Not yet met. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but the research reports quote the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-28 as listing 174 data centers, 11 short of 185. That figure is load-bearing and only research-verified. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot; trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No, so Yes needs about 3.7 net new listings per month. (d) The long-run trajectory on this source favours Yes: 71 in Feb 2025, 79 in Apr 2025, 100+ in Dec 2025 and 174 in Sep 2026, roughly 8 per month recently. Listings are operator-submitted and lumpy, so a single multi-building campus in Allentown or Pottsville could add 10 at once. (c) Against that, the Kalshi market opened in mid-August, has traded 52-79% and now sits at 64% (last close 59%). Traders watching the page daily would likely not hold Yes this low if the 8-per-month pace were continuing, which hints at recent deceleration. Other No factors are local moratoria, project rejections, and the possibility of delistings or duplicate cleanups reducing the count. I anchor on the 64% market price, with a slight tilt from the historical growth rate offset by the implied slowdown and the unverified 174 figure.
claude-opus-5-5
45% conf
Yes 66%
No 34%
(0) The threshold is not yet met. The research report's read of Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page shows "174 data centers listed" as of 2026-09-28, but our own resolution-source fetch failed (HTTP 429), so that figure is unverified by us. The count needs about 11 more listings. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot; trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No. The question is purely whether listings keep flowing. (c) NO: listings on the site are mostly submitted by operators and added in lumpy batches. Recent growth may already have plateaued, which the flat-to-down 30-day price hints at. Moratoria and rejections could also slow the large projects that feed new entries. (d) YES: the site's own history (71 in Feb 2025, 79 in Apr 2025, 100+ in Dec 2025, 174 in Sep 2026) implies roughly 8 additions a month recently. Even half that pace clears 185 by December, and the pipeline of proposed projects is large. Kalshi trades at 64% (bid 63 / ask 65). Traders watching the live count probably know whether it has moved since August, and the modest price suggests recent additions have slowed. I stay near the anchor with a slight lean up for the historical growth rate, but lack month-by-month data to go further.
claude-opus-5-5
45% conf
Yes 65%
No 35%
(0) Not yet met. The research reports that Data Center Map's Pennsylvania page listed 174 data centers as of 2026-09-28, 11 short of 185. My own resolution-source fetch failed with HTTP 429, so that figure rests on the research read alone. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No. (c) No path: listings on Data Center Map are largely operator-submitted and come in lumps, not a smooth monthly flow. Additions could stall for a quarter, especially as township moratoria and project rejections slow new PA campuses, leaving the count in the 175-184 range. (d) Yes path: the historical trajectory (71 in Feb 2025, 79 in Apr 2025, 100+ in Dec 2025, 174 in Sep 2026) averages roughly 8 listings a month in 2026. Planned campuses appear to be listed in batches (Allentown 32, Pottsville 15), so one or two new campus announcements could add 11+ quickly. Market anchor: Kalshi is at 64% (bid 63 / ask 65), and has traded 52-79% since opening in August. That price suggests traders watching the page see slower recent growth than the 2026 average implies, which tempers the trend argument. I stay close to the market, nudged very slightly up for the strong year-long trend, while keeping risk for lumpiness and the unverified snapshot.
gpt-5.6-sol
68% conf
Yes 72%
No 28%
(0) The condition is not already met: the September 28 research read of Data Center Map reports 174 Pennsylvania listings, 11 short of 185, although the separate resolution-source tool received an HTTP 429 and could not independently reproduce that reading. (a) About 94 days remain until December 31, 2026, after which the end-of-year Data Center Map count determines resolution. (b) If the displayed count does not change, the market resolves No. (c) No results if operator submissions and editorial additions stall, with proposed projects delayed by permitting, local moratoria, opposition, or grid constraints and therefore failing to generate 11 additional listings. (d) Yes results if Data Center Map continues adding or correcting listings at even a fraction of the reported rise from over 100 in December 2025 to 174 today, supported by a substantial statewide project pipeline. I anchor on Kalshi's 64% Yes price but raise it to 72% because only 11 additions are needed versus the strong recent listing trajectory, while retaining substantial No probability because updates are discretionary and apparently lumpy, the precise recent pace is unavailable, and the decisive live-source reading could not be independently fetched by the resolution tool.
gpt-5.6-sol
68% conf
Yes 69%
No 31%
(0) The condition is not yet met: the September 28 research read of Data Center Map reports 174 Pennsylvania listings, 11 short of 185, although the tool's contemporaneous direct request failed with HTTP 429. (a) About 94 days remain until the December 31, 2026 measurement date, with trading closing January 7, 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the count remains 174 and the market resolves No. (c) No results if Data Center Map's operator-driven, opportunistic update process stalls, while permitting delays, local moratoria, and project opposition prevent enough additional projects from becoming listings. (d) Yes results if at least 11 listings are added or database discrepancies are corrected, which appears plausible given the reported increase from over 100 in December 2025 to 174 today and the large statewide project pipeline. I anchor on Kalshi's 64% Yes price and move modestly upward to 69% because only 11 additions are required relative to the documented recent growth, while retaining substantial No probability because the same-source month-by-month trajectory is unavailable and listing growth may be lumpy or decelerating.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
67% (54% confidence)
Yes: 67% No: 33%
Mean of 5 draws (0.64, 0.66, 0.65, 0.72, 0.69). (0) Not yet met. The direct fetch of the resolution source failed with HTTP 429, but the research reports quote the Data Center Map Pennsylvania page on 2026-09-28 as listing 174 data centers, 11 short of 185. That figure is load-bearing and only research-verified. (a) About three months remain until the end-of-2026 snapshot; trading closes 2027-01-07. (b) If nothing changes, the count stays at 174 and the market resolves No, so Yes needs about 3.7 net new listings per month. (d) The long-run trajectory on this source favours Yes: 71 in Feb 2025, 79 in Apr 2025, 100+ in Dec 2025 and 174 in Sep 2026, roughly 8 per month recently. Listings are operator-submitted and lumpy, so a single multi-building campus in Allentown or Pottsville could add 10 at once. (c) Against that, the Kalshi market opened in mid-August, has traded 52-79% and now sits at 64% (last close 59%). Traders watching the page daily would likely not hold Yes this low if the 8-per-month pace were continuing, which hints at recent deceleration. Other No factors are local moratoria, project rejections, and the possibility of delistings or duplicate cleanups reducing the count. I anchor on the 64% market price, with a slight tilt from the historical growth rate offset by the implied slowdown and the unverified 174 figure.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 94.0s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.