← back to scans
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
15%
Agent
18%
Market Price
-2.3%
Edge
63%
Confidence
98,871
Volume
1.0c
Spread
275
Days to resolution
10
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.16). (0) Resolution check: the condition is not met. The June 8, 2026 list added Baidu, and the Federal Register delisting notice for that cycle named 10 other entities, not Baidu. A compliance mirror updated September 11, 2026 still shows Baidu listed, and Bloomberg on September 22 confirms it remains on the list. (a) About nine months remain until June 30, 2027. Section 1260H requires an update at least annually, so one more list refresh is likely around the deadline, though past releases have slipped. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu stays listed and the market resolves No. (c) NO scenario: DoD's next refresh keeps Baidu, citing its SASAC/MIIT military-civil fusion rationale. Baidu either never sues or its suit, like DJI's, drags on for years, and the trade truce yields no concessions on the list. (d) YES scenario: the new US-China AI dialogue or a broader trade deal produces delistings of AI champions. Internal lobbying already exists (McEntee pressing for Tencent's removal), and a late-spring 2027 refresh could drop Baidu, or a reconsideration petition could succeed quietly. The market sits at 17.5% after falling 10 points in a week, apparently because the Trump-Xi summit delivered no 1260H concession. Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit, litigation precedent shows slow removals, and incentives run toward retention as procurement bans take hold. I shade slightly below the market to 15%, keeping meaningful weight on a diplomatic deal before the next annual refresh.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
20 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
polymarket_direct
resolution_source
court_docket
polymarket_related
wikipedia
Planner reasoning
The Polymarket price is the anchor, and the resolution source is the DoD 1260H list page. Baidu's court challenge to its 1260H designation is key, since precedents like Xiaomi and Luokung were delisted after litigation, so court_docket is useful. Related markets on other companies' removals give cross-signals, and Wikipedia gives background on the list and its delisting history.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 17.50% (live; bid 17% / ask 18%) - 7-day price change: -10.00% - 30-day price change: +2.00% - Total volume: $98,871 (USD notional) - Price range: 15.00% - 59.00% - Data points: 78 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=June 8, 2026. The June 8, 2026 DOW release confirms an updated Section 1260H list of 188 entities was published, but the fetched text does not list individual company names, so it does not show whether Baidu is on or off the list.
- court_docket: Found 8 results for 'Baidu Department of Defense 1260H' (type=r).
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 15 matches. keyword 'Chinese Military Companies list': 5 markets | keyword '1260H': 5 markets | keyword 'Baidu': 5 markets
- wikipedia: Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: As of September 28, 2026, Baidu remains actively listed on the Section 1260H list with no qualifying removal, no confirmed Baidu-specific lawsuit, and no DoD signal of willingness to delist it; the only precedent for removal (Alibaba's suit, and past Xiaomi/AMEC litigation successes) has not yet produced results for Baidu, making the current trajectory strongly toward continued listing through the June 30, 2027 deadline.
- base rate: The historical base rate of "flagship," politically salient additions (like Baidu) being formally delisted within roughly a year is low — the one clear precedent (Xiaomi, 2021) took about 4 months but occurred under different statutory authority, a change of administration, and a swift injunction; no comparable injunction or settlement has been reported for Baidu as of September 2026, and the broader trend (2026 update, tightening procurement bans) points toward continued listing rather than rem
- yes case: The strongest YES path combines (1) a statutorily mandatory annual list refresh before June 2027 that creates a guaranteed decision point, (2) a live and at times DoD-favorable 1260H litigation environment (WuXi AppTec's August 2026 injunction, DJI's D.C. Circuit win on ownership-analysis grounds) that Baidu could exploit even without having filed suit yet, and (3) an active internal Trump-administration lobbying effort plus a newly created US-China "AI dialogue" channel that together give Baidu
- no case: The statute imposes no deadline forcing DoD to act before June 30, 2027, Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit or reconsideration outcome in progress, and the closest precedents (DJI, Alibaba) show that even active, well-resourced litigation takes years and frequently ends with the company still listed even after partial court wins — all pointing toward continued listing and a NO resolution.
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket_direct | OK | 0.3s | 1 | ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?** - Current price (probability): 17.50% (live; bid 17% / ask 18%) - 7-day price change: -10.00% - 30-day price change: +2.00% - Total volume: $98,871 (USD notional) - Price range: 15.00% |
| resolution_source | OK | 4.0s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=June 8, 2026. The June 8, 2026 DOW release confirms an updated Section 1260H list of 188 entities was published, but the fetched text does not list individual company names, so it does not show whether Baidu is on or off the list. |
| court_docket | OK | 0.8s | 8 | Found 8 results for 'Baidu Department of Defense 1260H' (type=r). |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.7s | 15 | Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 15 matches. keyword 'Chinese Military Companies list': 5 markets | keyword '1260H': 5 markets | keyword 'Baidu': 5 markets |
| wikipedia | OK | 0.4s | 2 | Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages). |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
19 searches ·
6 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 31s | 5 | 2 | 4341 chars |
| base rate | OK | 33s | 4 | 2 | 5539 chars |
| yes case | OK | 51s | 5 | 1 | 6335 chars |
| no case | OK | 43s | 5 | 1 | 5864 chars |
report: current state
- [2026-06-08] The Department of War (formerly DoD) published its updated Section 1260H "Chinese Military Companies" list, expanding it to 188 entities and adding Baidu, Inc. for the first time, alongside Alibaba, BYD, NIO, and others.
On June 8, 2026, the US Department of Defense/War released an updated version of its list of "Chinese Military Companies" operating in the United States, pursuant to the requirements of Section 1260H of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2021.
- [2026-06-08] DoD's stated basis for Baidu's designation, per the official compliance mirror of the list:
Baidu is indirectly affiliated with SASAC. Baidu is a military-civil fusion contributor to the Chinese defense industrial base because it is affiliated with MIIT.
(Citation from USC compliance page mirroring official DoD text.)
- [2026-06-09] Baidu publicly rejected the designation and signaled intent to fight it:
Baidu also rejected the claim, saying that it would "not hesitate to use all options available to us to have the company removed from the list."
- [2026-06-10] The same update simultaneously removed 10 previously listed entities (none being Baidu) because
the Department also removed 10 previously listed entities upon determining that they do not operate directly or indirectly in the United States.
Baidu was not among the removed companies.
- [2026-06-10] Federal Register notice lists the 10 companies removed in this cycle:
Anhui Sun Create Electronics Co., Ltd., China International Information Services Ltd., China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd., China Traffic Construction USA, Inc., CNOOC International Trading Co., Ltd., COSCO SHIPPING Finance Co., Ltd., Costar Group Co., Ltd., GLARUN Technology Co., Ltd., Taiji Computer Co., Ltd.
— Baidu is absent from this delisting notice.
- [2026-06-24] Alibaba (not Baidu) filed a federal lawsuit against the DoD/Defense Secretary Hegseth in San Jose federal court seeking removal from the list;
Baidu and BYD, both designated at the same time as Alibaba, have also signaled they may pursue legal action
, but no confirmed Baidu lawsuit filing was found.
- [2026-06-24] Litigation has precedent for success:
Legal challenges to the Pentagon blacklist have worked before: both Xiaomi Corp. and chipmaker Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. secured their removal from the list through litigation.
- [2026-09-22] Bloomberg reporting around the Trump-Xi AI talks confirms Baidu remains listed and the issue remains unresolved:
The most recent version of the list added Chinese artificial intelligence champions Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc., as well as BYD Co., the world's biggest producer of electric vehicles.
- [2026-09-22] No sign of US concession:
For now, the Trump administration hasn't signaled any willingness to back down, with the 1260H list providing crucial leverage in the deepening competition between the world's
two powers, per Bloomberg.
- [2026-09-11] The most recently updated official/compliance mirror of the 1260H list (last updated September 11, 2026) still includes "Baidu, Inc. (Baidu)" as a listed entity with its designation rationale unchanged, per the USC Office of Ethics and Compliance's tracking page, which is sourced directly from the DoD list.
- [2026-09-28 (today)] No Federal Register notice, DoD announcement, or credible news report was found indicating Baidu has been removed from the 1260H list since the June 8, 2026 publication; the list has not been updated again as of this date per available reporting.
NOT FOUND: A direct, confirmed Baidu lawsuit filing (as opposed to Alibaba's, which was located); any DoD announcement of a list update after June 2026; any Federal Register notice removing Baidu; details of any bilateral US-China negotiation outcome specifically naming Baidu from the September 2026 Trump-Xi AI talks.
BOTTOM LINE: As of September 28, 2026, Baidu remains actively listed on the Section 1260H list with no qualifying removal, no confirmed Baidu-specific lawsuit, and no DoD signal of willingness to delist it; the only precedent for removal (Alibaba's suit, and past Xiaomi/AMEC litigation successes) has not yet produced results for Baidu, making the current trajectory strongly toward continued listing through the June 30, 2027 deadline.
report: base rate
- [2026-06-08] The DoW's June 2026 update expanded the Section 1260H List to 188 entities (from 134), adding Baidu, Alibaba, BYD and dozens of others, while also removing 10 previously listed entities for unrelated reasons (they no longer operated in the U.S.) — showing removals do occur but are rare relative to additions in any single update.
On June 8, 2026, the Department released an updated 1260H List adding 65 entities while removing 10 previously listed entities upon determining that they do not operate directly or indirectly in the United States.
- [2026-06-23] Baidu's co-designee Alibaba filed suit against DoD in a California federal court seeking removal, arguing the designation was baseless;
Alibaba Group Holding Limited initiated legal action against the DoD in a California federal court, seeking removal from the Pentagon's "1260H list," in a lawsuit filed on June 23, 2026, asserting the government failed to provide substantial evidence.
No public report found of Baidu itself having filed a comparable suit as of late September 2026.
- [2026-06-09] As of the days after the June 2026 listing, only one named entity (not confirmed as Baidu) had filed a delisting complaint:
As of June 9, 2026, one of the named entities has filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia seeking removal from the List.
- [2026-08-28] A separate newly-listed firm, CXMT, sued DoD on August 28, 2026 over its designation, illustrating that litigation against the 2026 list is ongoing but recent and unresolved.
ChangXin Memory Technologies filed suit in Washington on August 28 seeking removal from the Pentagon's Section 1260H list, asking a federal court to overturn the designation and remove it from the list.
- [2021-05-25] The only unambiguous precedent of a major company winning removal via litigation is Xiaomi: after winning a preliminary injunction on March 12, 2021,
DoD and Xiaomi submitted a final proposed order to end the litigation and formally remove the company from the list, which the judge accepted and signed on May 25, 2021
— a roughly 4-month process from suit filing (Jan 29, 2021) to removal, occurring under a different, older legal framework (Section 1237/EO 13959) and a new (Biden) administration inclined to recalibrate policy.
- [2021-05-05] Luokung Technology also won a preliminary injunction (May 5, 2021) but, unlike Xiaomi, was not confirmed to have achieved a final delisting in the search results, indicating injunctions do not always translate into formal 1260H removal.
- [2025-01-07] Historical annual updates show occasional batch delistings unrelated to litigation:
the Deputy Secretary of Defense determined that entities including Beijing Megvii Technology Co., China Marine Information Electronics Company, China Railway Construction Corporation, China State Construction Group, and others should be removed from the list announced on January 31, 2024
— six companies were removed in that update, none of which were reported as high-profile tech giants like Baidu.
- [2026-06-30] No legal mechanism currently requires DoD to rule on delisting petitions within a fixed timeframe; the process is APA-based litigation or an internal petition without a statutory deadline.
Listed entities may petition the Department for delisting and may seek judicial review under the Administrative Procedure Act in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.
- [2026-06-30] The current political and regulatory environment is toughening, not loosening, restrictions tied to the list:
designation on the Section 1260H List has greater potential consequences than in past years due to recent legislative changes, with procurement bans taking effect June 30, 2026 (direct) and June 30, 2027 (indirect)
, suggesting less administrative appetite for high-profile removals ahead of the market's deadline.
- [2026-06-10] Analysts note that companies "consistently disputed their designations" in the past, and that at least one company (Tencent) called its 2025 listing "a mistake," yet Tencent remained listed through 2026 despite objections — indicating public objection alone rarely leads to removal without litigation success.
The listed companies have consistently disputed their designations. Tencent called its inclusion "a mistake" when it was added last year, and CATL denied any military involvement.
- [2026-09-14] Baidu is currently also facing an unrelated U.S. securities class-action (filed September 14, 2026, SDNY) over AI-related disclosures, which does not bear directly on 1260H status but indicates elevated U.S. legal/regulatory scrutiny of the company generally in this period.
BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate of "flagship," politically salient additions (like Baidu) being formally delisted within roughly a year is low — the one clear precedent (Xiaomi, 2021) took about 4 months but occurred under different statutory authority, a change of administration, and a swift injunction; no comparable injunction or settlement has been reported for Baidu as of September 2026, and the broader trend (2026 update, tightening procurement bans) points toward continued listing rather than removal.
NOT FOUND: No evidence that Baidu itself (as opposed to Alibaba or CXMT) has filed a lawsuit or delisting petition against its 1260H designation; no scheduled date for the next official 1260H list update (historically ~annual, previously issued in January); no ruling or settlement in the Alibaba or CXMT cases as of the search date.
report: yes case
YES means: Baidu, Inc. is confirmed absent from a subsequent official DoD/Department of War Section 1260H list (or a DoD/Federal Register delisting notice) published on or before June 30, 2027, with that removal not attributable merely to renaming, merger, or transfer of the designation to a successor/affiliate.
- [2026-02-13] Before the June 2026 listing, the Pentagon briefly posted a February 2026 154-firm update naming Baidu, BYD, Alibaba and others, then "reportedly requested its withdrawal without any concrete explanation," showing the administration has, at least once, actively pulled back a list containing Baidu under unexplained (possibly diplomatic) pressure — a precedent for administrative reversal rather than pure litigation-only removal (https://www.mexc.com/news/711465).
- [2026-06-08] The same February draft had also removed CXMT and YMTC before that draft was scrapped, then in the final June list the "surprising move" of delisting chipmakers happened again, then reversed to keep them listed in the June final — indicating internal deliberation at DoD over which tech giants to retain is genuinely fluid and contested, not settled policy (https://www.mexc.com/news/711378).
- [2026-06-10] Section 1260H itself statutorily obligates the Secretary to "make additions or deletions to the list not less frequently than annually," meaning at least one more mandatory list refresh is legally required before the June 30, 2027 deadline, creating a guaranteed additional decision point at which Baidu could be dropped (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/10/2026-11571/notice-of-availability-of-designation-of-chinese-military-companies).
- [2026-06-10] That same Federal Register notice confirms listed entities, including Baidu, "may request reconsideration of this decision" directly from DoD — an administrative petition path that does not require winning in court and has no fixed timeline, but is faster in principle than litigation (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/10/2026-11571/notice-of-availability-of-designation-of-chinese-military-companies).
- [2026-08-07] Under the current (2024-amended) 1260H framework, Chief Judge James E. Boasberg issued a preliminary injunction barring DoD from "enforcing, implementing, or otherwise giving effect" to WuXi AppTec's listing, proving that courts are willing to freeze designations made on similar "military-civil fusion contributor" theories used against Baidu, even post-2024 amendments (https://404kresearch.substack.com/p/wuxi-apptec-wins-round-one-court).
- [2026-08-14] The D.C. Circuit's SZ DJI ruling establishes that a renewed 1260H designation does not automatically moot a challenge to an earlier one, and that "sloppy ownership analysis can be overturned" — a legal template Baidu's counsel could exploit given DoD's own compliance-mirror rationale for Baidu rests on indirect SASAC/MIIT affiliation, an ownership-chain theory of the kind D.C. Circuit has found vulnerable (https://modeldiplomat.com/story/1260h-list-pentagons-chinese-military-ban).
- [2026-09-14] Baidu is currently the subject of enhanced US legal/regulatory attention (unrelated securities class action), which increases the odds Baidu's leadership prioritizes an aggressive delisting strategy (litigation or high-level diplomatic lobbying) to protect its US-listed ADS value and Nasdaq standing before the 2027 indirect-procurement ban takes effect (https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260922la53421/baidu-inc-bidu-shareholders-who-lost-money-have-opportunity-to-lead-securities-fraud-lawsuit).
- [2026-09-21] Reporting around the Trump-Xi summit confirms a live, named lobbying effort inside the Trump orbit — former White House personnel director John McEntee is "currently pressing to remove 1260H labels from Tencent Holdings Ltd. and from Zhongji Innolight," explicitly arguing "Trump's appointees should update the lists to reflect their boss's thinking," demonstrating an active internal push for delistings that could plausibly extend to other high-profile names like Baidu given the summit's broader AI-cooperation framing (https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/).
- [2026-09-25] The Trump-Xi summit produced a two-month extension of the trade truce and a new "US-China AI dialogue" mechanism per Treasury Secretary Bessent, establishing an ongoing bilateral channel through which the politically salient AI companies (Alibaba, Baidu) could plausibly be traded away in a future deal before the June 2027 deadline, even though no immediate 1260H concession was announced at the summit itself (https://www.business-standard.com/amp/world-news/trump-xi-summit-goes-big-on-pomp-but-key-us-china-deals-remain-elusive-126092500197_1.html).
- [2026-09-21] Analyst Craig Singleton's summit-week framing — that "there is a big difference between China raising the issue and Washington being prepared to bargain away the list" — implicitly concedes that Beijing is actively pressing for removals as part of the broader relationship, keeping diplomatic delisting pressure alive heading into 2027 (https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/).
BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path combines (1) a statutorily mandatory annual list refresh before June 2027 that creates a guaranteed decision point, (2) a live and at times DoD-favorable 1260H litigation environment (WuXi AppTec's August 2026 injunction, DJI's D.C. Circuit win on ownership-analysis grounds) that Baidu could exploit even without having filed suit yet, and (3) an active internal Trump-administration lobbying effort plus a newly created US-China "AI dialogue" channel that together give Baidu multiple simultaneous avenues — administrative petition, litigation, and diplomacy — through which a delisting could materialize before the deadline.
NOT FOUND: No confirmed Baidu-specific lawsuit or delisting petition filing; no DoD statement singling out Baidu for reconsideration; no evidence the February 2026 draft-list withdrawal was legally a "removal" under this market's rules (it preceded, and was superseded by, the June 2026 list that added Baidu); no outcome yet from Alibaba v. DoD or CXMT v. DoD that would set binding precedent specifically covering Baidu's designation rationale.
report: no case
YES means: Baidu, Inc. is confirmed removed from the DoD/DoW Section 1260H "Chinese Military Companies" list via an official delisting notice (Federal Register, DoD/DoW announcement, or updated list) before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, per the resolution criteria's strict definition (renaming/merger/successor transfers and mere non-enforcement do not count).
- [2026-06-08] The Federal Register notice itself states the government's designation rationale in full:
Baidu is indirectly affiliated with SASAC. Baidu is a military-civil fusion contributor to the Chinese defense industrial base because it is affiliated with MIIT
, a rationale independent of the specific "affiliation" claims that courts have found weakly evidenced for other firms, giving DoD a durable legal foothold to keep Baidu listed. (federalregister.gov)
- [2026-06-10] The statute itself sets a low bar for DoD action, requiring only that the Secretary "make additions or deletions to the list not less frequently than annually," meaning DoD is under no obligation to issue any updated list — let alone a Baidu delisting — before the June 30, 2027 deadline. (federalregister.gov)
- [2026-06-10] The reconsideration process is new and untested: DoD's notice explains a company must submit
"a detailed description with supporting evidence of why the listed entity should be removed from the 1260H List," which may include arguments "that an insufficient basis exists for the listing or that the circumstances resulting in the listing no longer apply"
— an administrative petition process with no statutory deadline for DoD response, and no known instance of it yet succeeding for any 2026-cycle designee. (federalregister.gov)
- [2026-08-14] The strongest available analogue for how long 1260H litigation actually takes shows the opposite of a quick resolution: DJI, despite suing in 2022 and fighting through 2026,
had its first judicial win in the case only in August 2026, after years of annual redesignations, repeated litigation, and a September 2025 defeat
— nearly four years — and even that win only sent one narrow issue back to the district court.
- [2026-08-14] Critically, DJI's partial appellate win still left it listed:
"The August 14 decision keeps DJI on the Defense Department's Section 1260H list of 'Chinese military companies' for now"
, illustrating that even a favorable court ruling does not equate to actual removal from the list — the qualifying event this market requires.
- [2026-08-14] The appeals court record shows DoD can simply re-designate a company with new reasons whenever a specific rationale is undercut:
"In June 2026, several months after we heard oral argument, the Secretary informed us that he had published a new Section 1260H list, which again included DJI"
— a pattern that undermines any assumption that winning one legal argument leads to removal.
- [2026-07-05] Even Alibaba's more advanced litigation (filed June 23, 2026, weeks ahead of any hypothetical Baidu suit) has so far produced only a narrow, provisional carve-out on the lobbying-ban aspect, not a delisting:
a judge "ordered the Pentagon not to treat Alibaba as a Chinese military company with respect to the lobbying restriction until she resolves the company's motion on the matter or 60 days after a court hearing on it, whichever comes first"
— a narrow interim measure, not removal from the list itself, three months into the case.
- [2026-08-25] The D.C. Circuit's own opinion in the DJI case underscores how procedurally slow and deferential this litigation track is, with the court still resolving preliminary jurisdiction and mootness questions
"We begin by addressing our jurisdiction. The June 2026 list, which supplies new reasons for DJI's designation, raises the question whether DJI's challenge to the January 2025 designation is moot... he has not suggested that it moots this case"
— showing courts are still untangling basic procedural threshold issues more than four years into a similar case.
- [2026-09-28] No public reporting found of Baidu having filed its own APA lawsuit as of search date (only Alibaba, WuXi AppTec, and CXMT confirmed as litigants), meaning Baidu likely has not even started the multi-year court process that, per the DJI/Xiaomi precedents, is the only route shown to sometimes work — and Baidu has not begun it with roughly nine months left before the deadline.
- [2026-06-10] The administration's institutional incentives point toward retention, not removal, given that Section 1260H designation now carries escalating hard consequences (direct procurement ban effective June 30, 2026, indirect ban effective June 30, 2027) that policymakers have described as intentional leverage, reducing any incentive to delist a marquee AI firm like Baidu before the market's cutoff.
- [2026-07-13] Compliance/legal trackers monitoring the list broadly expect only routine, narrow removals (entities that stopped operating in the U.S.), not the removal of politically salient flagship additions like Baidu, consistent with the base-rate pattern where the June 2026 update removed only minor/inactive entities rather than any of the newly added AI/tech giants.
BOTTOM LINE: The statute imposes no deadline forcing DoD to act before June 30, 2027, Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit or reconsideration outcome in progress, and the closest precedents (DJI, Alibaba) show that even active, well-resourced litigation takes years and frequently ends with the company still listed even after partial court wins — all pointing toward continued listing and a NO resolution.
NOT FOUND: Confirmation of any Baidu-specific lawsuit or formal reconsideration petition filing; any DoD signal of willingness to delist Baidu; any scheduled date for the next official 1260H list update; outcome of Alibaba's or CXMT's litigation as of late September 2026.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5
55% conf
| Yes | 15% |
| No | 85% |
(0) Resolution check: the condition is not met. The June 8, 2026 list added Baidu, and the Federal Register delisting notice for that cycle named 10 other entities, not Baidu. A compliance mirror updated September 11, 2026 still shows Baidu listed, and Bloomberg on September 22 confirms it remains on the list. (a) About nine months remain until June 30, 2027. Section 1260H requires an update at least annually, so one more list refresh is likely around the deadline, though past releases have slipped. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu stays listed and the market resolves No. (c) NO scenario: DoD's next refresh keeps Baidu, citing its SASAC/MIIT military-civil fusion rationale. Baidu either never sues or its suit, like DJI's, drags on for years, and the trade truce yields no concessions on the list. (d) YES scenario: the new US-China AI dialogue or a broader trade deal produces delistings of AI champions. Internal lobbying already exists (McEntee pressing for Tencent's removal), and a late-spring 2027 refresh could drop Baidu, or a reconsideration petition could succeed quietly. The market sits at 17.5% after falling 10 points in a week, apparently because the Trump-Xi summit delivered no 1260H concession. Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit, litigation precedent shows slow removals, and incentives run toward retention as procurement bans take hold. I shade slightly below the market to 15%, keeping meaningful weight on a diplomatic deal before the next annual refresh.
claude-opus-5-5
55% conf
| Yes | 15% |
| No | 85% |
(0) Resolution check: the condition has not been met. Baidu was added to the Section 1260H list on June 8, 2026. It was not among the 10 entities delisted in the June 10 Federal Register notice. A compliance mirror updated September 11, 2026, and Bloomberg reporting on September 22 both show it still listed. (a) About nine months remain until the June 30, 2027 deadline. The statute requires at least one more annual update before then, so there is one guaranteed decision point. (b) Status quo is NO: Baidu stays listed, and there is no confirmed Baidu lawsuit or reconsideration outcome. (c) NO scenario: DoD keeps Baidu on the list as leverage as procurement bans tighten, or delays the refresh. Alibaba, CXMT and WuXi litigation produces injunctions but no formal delisting in time, as happened with DJI, which remained listed even after partial court wins. (d) YES scenario: a Trump–Xi trade deal or the new AI dialogue channel trades away designations of AI champions. Internal lobbying of the kind already pushing for Tencent's removal could also drive a political delisting in the next list refresh. The unexplained withdrawal of the February 2026 draft shows that list composition can shift politically. The market's 17.5% anchor fell 10 points this week, which fits the summit producing no 1260H concession. With no Baidu-specific litigation and no administration signal, I shade slightly below the market to 15%.
claude-opus-5-5
60% conf
| Yes | 15% |
| No | 85% |
(0) Resolution check: the condition has not been met. The Sept 11, 2026 compliance mirror of the list still shows Baidu, Inc., and no Federal Register or DoD delisting notice has appeared since the June 8, 2026 list that added Baidu. Bloomberg reporting on Sept 22 also confirms Baidu remains listed. (a) About nine months remain until the June 30, 2027 deadline. The statute requires at least annual updates, so a refresh is due around June 2027, near the cutoff. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu stays listed and the market resolves No. (c) No scenario: Baidu never files suit, or its suit moves at DJI/Alibaba speed, producing at most narrow interim relief. The administration keeps the list as leverage while procurement bans phase in, and the next annual list retains Baidu. (d) Yes scenario: the new US-China 'AI dialogue' or a broader trade deal trades away 1260H labels for AI champions. Lobbying inside Trump's circle (e.g., McEntee on Tencent) spreads, and the 2027 refresh or a standalone notice drops Baidu. A reconsideration petition succeeding administratively would also do it. The February 2026 draft-list withdrawal shows DoD decisions here are fluid and politically driven. Anchor: Polymarket's 17.5%, down 10 points this week after the Trump-Xi summit ended with no 1260H concession. Peer markets for Alibaba, Tencent and others sit at 12-19%. Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit and litigation historically takes years. I shade slightly below the market to about 15%, keeping meaningful weight on a diplomatic bulk-delisting tail.
gpt-5.6-sol
72% conf
| Yes | 15% |
| No | 85% |
(0) The condition has not already been met: the September 11 compliance mirror still included Baidu, Bloomberg reported on September 22 that it remained listed, and no subsequent DoD or Federal Register delisting was found as of September 28. (a) About nine months, or 275 days, remain until the June 30, 2027 deadline, during which an official updated list or delisting announcement must remove Baidu. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu remains on the June 8, 2026 list and the market resolves No. (c) The central No scenario is that Baidu never files a timely lawsuit or petition, while DoD retains the designation through the deadline; DJI and Alibaba show that even favorable interim rulings can leave a company formally listed. (d) A Yes scenario is that Baidu petitions or sues, benefits from the WuXi/DJI legal precedents, or is removed through the next annual review or a US-China diplomatic bargain. I anchor on Polymarket's 17.5% Yes price but shade it to 15% because there is no confirmed Baidu-specific proceeding, no DoD willingness to reconsider, and recent reporting describes the list as strategic leverage, while preserving meaningful upside for litigation, administrative review, and diplomacy.
gpt-5.6-sol
72% conf
| Yes | 16% |
| No | 84% |
(0) The condition has not already been met: the September 11 compliance tracker still included Baidu, Bloomberg reported on September 22 that it remained listed, and no subsequent DoD or Federal Register delisting was found through September 28. (a) About nine months remain until the June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline, during which Baidu must disappear from an official updated list or receive an official delisting notice. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu remains on the June 8, 2026 list and the market resolves No. (c) The central No scenario is that Baidu never files a timely lawsuit or obtains administrative relief, while DoD retains the designation through the deadline; DJI and Alibaba show that preliminary legal relief can take substantial time and need not produce formal removal. (d) A Yes scenario is that Baidu petitions or sues, exploits potentially vulnerable SASAC/MIIT-affiliation reasoning, and secures removal during the next annual update, possibly aided by US-China AI diplomacy. I anchor near Polymarket's 17.5% Yes price and move slightly lower to 16% because Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit or petition, the administration has signaled no willingness to concede, and the strict rules require actual formal delisting rather than suspended enforcement.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
15%
(63% confidence)
Yes: 15%
No: 85%
Mean of 5 draws (0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.16). (0) Resolution check: the condition is not met. The June 8, 2026 list added Baidu, and the Federal Register delisting notice for that cycle named 10 other entities, not Baidu. A compliance mirror updated September 11, 2026 still shows Baidu listed, and Bloomberg on September 22 confirms it remains on the list. (a) About nine months remain until June 30, 2027. Section 1260H requires an update at least annually, so one more list refresh is likely around the deadline, though past releases have slipped. (b) If nothing changes, Baidu stays listed and the market resolves No. (c) NO scenario: DoD's next refresh keeps Baidu, citing its SASAC/MIIT military-civil fusion rationale. Baidu either never sues or its suit, like DJI's, drags on for years, and the trade truce yields no concessions on the list. (d) YES scenario: the new US-China AI dialogue or a broader trade deal produces delistings of AI champions. Internal lobbying already exists (McEntee pressing for Tencent's removal), and a late-spring 2027 refresh could drop Baidu, or a reconsideration petition could succeed quietly. The market sits at 17.5% after falling 10 points in a week, apparently because the Trump-Xi summit delivered no 1260H concession. Baidu has no confirmed lawsuit, litigation precedent shows slow removals, and incentives run toward retention as procurement bans take hold. I shade slightly below the market to 15%, keeping meaningful weight on a diplomatic deal before the next annual refresh.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 98.3s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.