Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

- [2026-04-01] CMA's seasonal outlook (Main Flood Season Climate Trend Prediction) forecast 24 to 26 typhoons forming in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with 7 to 9 of them making landfall in China, higher than the average . https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/2026%20Pacific%20Typhoon%20Season/1418136 - [2026-09-02] At a CMA/National Meteorological Center press briefing, deputy director Huang Zhuo stated that as of September 1, 2026, 24 typhoons had formed in the Northwest Pacific/South China Sea (vs. a multi-year average of 13.6), and "今年已有7个台风登陆我国，与多年同期平均(4.9个)相比偏多2.1个" — i.e., 7 typhoons had already made landfall in China in 2026, 2.1 more than the historical average. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-02/doc-iniqmmyu4508805.shtml - [2026-09-02] The same briefing forecast that autumn 2026 (Sept–Nov) would see only 8–10 more typhoons form (below the 10.7 average) with just 2–4 more making landfall in or affecting China, roughly near-normal to slightly above the 2.2 average. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/shipin/cns-d/2026/09-02/news1067502.shtml - [2026-07-11] Typhoon No.9 (Bavi/巴威) made landfall in Yuhuan, Taizhou, Zhejiang, then again near Yueqing, Wenzhou. https://baike.baidu.com/item/2026%E5%B9%B4%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%E6%B4%8B%E5%8F%B0%E9%A3%8E%E5%AD%A3/67222545 - [2026-08-09] Typhoon No.13 "Dolphin" (白海豚) made landfall on the coast of Kanmen Subdistrict, Yuhuan City, Zhejiang, then a second landfall near Wengyang Subdistrict, Yueqing City, Wenzhou; the CMA called it an unusual typhoon with a long lifespan, long travel distance, repeated intensity fluctuations, and a track influenced by complex factors . https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/news/NewsEvents/news/202608/t20260811_7981168.html - [2026-08-28] Typhoon No.18 "Saudel" made its first landfall(s) in Zhejiang (around 08:05 and 09:10 local time), per Baidu's season summary; a U.S. Embassy alert had flagged its expected morning landfall between Zhejiang and Fujian. https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/2026%20Pacific%20Typhoon%20Season/1418136 ; https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/weather-alert-typhoon-saudel/ - [2026-09-03] Saudel made a third landfall in Fujian before dissipating; it was officially removed from active typhoon tracking by the CMA, though its residual circulation continued bringing heavy rains across Fujian, Jiangxi, and Hunan . https://www.sekologistics.com/hk-en/resources/asia-supply-chain-weather-center-live-port-freight-updates/ - [2026-09-05] Typhoon No.24 "Krovanh" (Force-9, ~83 km/h winds) prompted a CMA storm-surge orange warning for China's northern coast as it moved through the East China Sea near Okinawa; reports describe coastal impact/storm-surge threat rather than a confirmed direct China landfall, and it dissipated near the Ryukyus by September 7. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202609/05/WS6a9bcdcfe4b06d4aa055c89d.html - [2026-09-16 to 09-22] Typhoon No.25 "Dujuan" formed and tracked northward, striking Japan (Chiba/Kanagawa, record rainfall on Izu Oshima) rather than China; explicitly, forecasters noted it would have no direct wind or rain impact on mainland China . https://taifengshuo.com/en/news/2026-09-17 - [2026-09-27/28] Typhoon No.26 "Surigae" intensified south of Okinawa and is currently forecast to curve toward central Japan (threatening the Asian Games in Aichi-Nagoya) rather than make a China landfall, though earlier forecasts had floated a possible Fujian/Guangdong approach around Sept 26–29 with high track uncertainty. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/weather-threat-looms-over-asian-games-as-typhoon-surigae-moves-toward-honshu/12893004 ; https://taifengshuo.com/en/news/2026-09-24-pm - [2026-09-14] A Chinese science-media recap reiterated the same official count: as of September 1, 24 typhoons had formed in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, notably more than the 13.6 average, with 7 making landfall in China, more than the 4.9 average . https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2026-09/14/content_580780.html - [2026-09-28] The CMA Tropical Cyclone Data Center's "Landfalling TCs" page (the market's primary resolution source) could not be accessed directly today; no independent confirmation of the page's live 2026 tally was obtained beyond the official spoken figure of 7 landfalls as of Sept 1. https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html (fetch failed) BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent official CMA statement (Sept 2, briefing covering data through Sept 1), 7 tropical cyclones had already made landfall in China in 2026 — one short of the ">8" threshold — with CMA's own outlook calling for only 2–4 more landfalls/impacts during the remaining autumn season; the two most recent storms (Dujuan, and currently Surigae) have tracked toward Japan rather than China, so whether the 8th (and a potential 9th) landfall occurs before the CMA's 2026 dataset is finalized remains genuinely uncertain but plausible given the active season and CMA's own seasonal forecast of 7–9 total landfalls. NOT FOUND: Live/current tally from the CMA "Landfalling TCs" webpage itself (page inaccessible at fetch time); an authoritative determination of whether Krovanh counted as an official China "landfall" in CMA's records (news coverage described storm-surge warnings/close approach rather than an explicit confirmed landfall statement); confirmed outcome of Typhoon Surigae's track (still evolving as of Sept 28).

- [2013-07-09] CMA's own retrospective study found over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island , a widely-cited long-run baseline. Source: https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/SciandTech/201307/t20130709_218970.html - [2025-07-15] A peer-reviewed study using the CMA best-track dataset (1949–2022) found the annual average number of landfalling tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85, showing a significant decreasing trend . Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11442-025-2376-6 - [2023-12-29] Another peer-reviewed paper states there are approximately nine TC landfalls in China every year , consistent with the 7–9/year range cited elsewhere. Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1329702/epub - [2019-07-12] CGTN reporting on CMA data states On average, China's coastal residents face 10 typhoon landings each year , a higher estimate than CMA's own 25-year study, showing genuine dispersion across the reference class depending on methodology/period. - [2026-04-01] China's National Climate Center (NCC-CMA), in its official mid-year climate outlook, forecast that 预计2026年，西北太平洋和南海海域有24～26个台风生成（常年为25个），其中有7～9个登陆我国（常年为7个），较常年偏多 — i.e., 7–9 typhoons expected to make landfall in China in 2026 versus a "normal" of 7, explicitly framed as above-normal. Source: https://www.ncc-cma.net/channel/news/newsid/100923 - [2026-09-27] A retrospective report on China's 2025 climate (published in 2026) found that Of 27 typhoons that formed over the northwest Pacific and South China Sea [in 2025], 10 made landfall in China, 2.8 more than normal , implying an official "normal" baseline of roughly 7.2 landfalls/year — one of the most recent officially-referenced normals. Source: https://www.earth.com/climate/china-just-had-one-of-its-strangest-weather-years-on-record/ - [2026-07-24] Reporting on the 2025 season separately noted that by late July 2025 this year's typhoon season in China began later than usual and has seen an increased frequency of storms making landfall , with the seventh typhoon (Francisco) already forming, illustrating how mid-season landfall counts can run ahead of/behind the eventual annual total. Source: https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202507/24/WS68818b2ca310ad07b5d91a9d.html - [2026 season outlook, undated 2026] A private-sector (Peak Re) seasonal forecast for 2026 projected the frequency of TS making landfall in China will be near the LTCA (long-term climate average), approximately 6–8, [and] the frequency of TC that affecting China in 2026 is forecasted to be at the LTCA, approximately 12–14 in total , i.e., a landfall estimate straddling but not clearly exceeding 8. - [2026-09-28 as of page timestamp] A tracker (Worlddata/CIMSS) shows that in just the last 5 weeks alone, there have been 3 tropical storms and typhoons that made landfall: Narra, Saudel and Krovanh , on top of earlier-season landfalls (Maysak, Bavi, Noul/Hongxia, Dolphin), indicating the 2026 count is already substantial by late September and the season (peak July–September, tailing into October) is not yet over. - [2026, mid-year forecasts] Independent commercial forecasters flagged 2026 as an above-normal Pacific season overall: the full-season annual total is projected at 27 to 29, placing 2026 in the above-normal category… with an estimated 27 to 29 tropical storms or typhoons forming over the full year , consistent with the elevated (7–9) official Chinese landfall forecast rather than a below-average year. BOTTOM LINE: The historical/base-rate reference class for annual China landfalls spans roughly 6–10 depending on the study and period, with most recent official Chinese (NCC-CMA) and commercial forecasts clustering at 7–9 for 2026 specifically (an above-normal year per El Niño-influenced outlooks), and the 2025 comparison year saw 10. This puts "more than 8" landfalls close to a coin-flip-to-somewhat-likely outcome purely on base rates, tilted slightly toward YES given 2026's officially-flagged above-normal activity and already-heavy landfall activity reported through late September. NOT FOUND: An official, up-to-date running tally from the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page itself for 2026 (the page could not be fetched directly); a precise, agreed count of confirmed distinct China landfalls for 2026 year-to-date (various sources use different storm names/numbering, e.g., Hongxia vs. Noul, making an exact current tally difficult to reconstruct with confidence); and any formal Polymarket-style base rate or track record for this specific contract type in prior years.

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page ends up recording 9 or more distinct tropical cyclones making landfall in China for calendar-year 2026 (i.e., strictly more than 8). - [2026-09-01] Official CMA tally already stood at "截至2026年9月1日，西北太平洋和南海共有24个台风生成...今年已有7个台风登陆我国，与多年同期平均(4.9个)相比偏多2.1个" — 7 confirmed landfalls with a full month of peak-adjacent season (September) still to run, plus October tail risk. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-02/doc-iniqmmyu4508805.shtml - [2026-09-24] A 26th named storm, Typhoon Surigae ("舒力基"), formed in the Northwest Pacific; as of Sept 24 its intensity was tropical-storm-level (998 hPa, 18 m/s) and forecasters explicitly flagged China landfall as an open possibility for the National Day holiday window. https://taifengshuo.com/en/news/2026-09-24-pm - [2026-09-24] Contemporary Chinese meteorological commentary noted ensemble spread still including Hainan, Guangdong, Taiwan, Fujian, and Zhejiang as possible landfall targets for Surigae, with European model members still showing landfall in China even as odds narrowed. https://www.sohu.com/a/1080233508_122014422 - [2026-09-22] A Sohu report captured the "three typhoons dancing" scenario during the Oct holiday, i.e., multiple simultaneous northwest Pacific systems, which structurally raises the chance that at least one of them tracks toward the Chinese coast in the two-week window right after this report's cutoff. https://www.sohu.com/a/1079857467_673065 - [2026-09-02] CMA's own National Meteorological Center forecast "预计2026年秋季，西北太平洋和南海海域有8～10个台风生成...有2～4个登陆或影响我国，接近常年同期(2.2个)或略偏多" — even the conservative official autumn outlook allows for 2-4 more landfalls/impacts, which would take the season total past 8 if even two of the "登陆或影响" events are recorded as landfalls rather than mere "影响" (affecting) events. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-02/doc-iniqmmyu4508805.shtml - [2026-04-01] The seasonal outlook cited by colleagues explicitly framed 2026 as above-normal, forecasting 7-9 China landfalls versus a "normal" of 7 — the top of this range already implies a real chance of exceeding 8, and 2026's storm-formation count (24 by Sept 1) has already outperformed the average by a wide margin, historically correlating with above-average landfall totals. https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/2026%20Pacific%20Typhoon%20Season/1418136 - [2025 comparison] The most recent complete season (2025) saw 10 China landfalls out of 27 formed storms, per the retrospective climate report cited by colleagues — directly comparable in storm-formation volume to 2026's 24-and-counting tally, suggesting the current season's total generation rate is consistent with reaching double-digit landfalls once the year is closed out. - [2026-09-24] Typhoon-tracking data (NMC's typhoon.nmc.cn live list) confirms 26 numbered storms have formed as of Sept 24, one more than the "24 by Sept 1" figure, meaning at least two additional systems (Dujuan/25, Surigae/26) have formed in barely three weeks — indicating the basin remains highly active into late September rather than shutting down, which raises the odds of additional China-bound systems before the traditional season-end (November-December tail is also historically not unheard of for China landfalls). https://typhoon.nmc.cn/web.html - [2026-09-24] Local Fujian-focused reporting flagged that Surigae could enter Fujian's typhoon warning zone by Sept 26-27 under some model runs, illustrating that even after this report's Sept 28 cutoff, the storm's fate (and thus the season's 8th/9th landfall) was still being decided in real time by the "Sept 28-29" model-convergence point cited by forecasters. https://news.fznews.com.cn/fzyw/20260924/S0ykFbj05h.shtml BOTTOM LINE: With 7 confirmed landfalls by Sept 1, an unusually storm-dense basin (26 named systems by Sept 24 versus a 13.6 average), CMA's own autumn outlook allowing 2-4 more landfalls/impacts, and an active, still-undecided Typhoon Surigae plus talk of "three typhoons" around the October holiday, the single most likely path to YES is Surigae (or a subsequent October system) becoming the 8th landfall while at least one more named storm in October-November supplies the 9th — a plausible, evidence-backed but not yet confirmed outcome. NOT FOUND: A live, dated readout from the CMA "Landfalling TCs" webpage itself confirming the current 2026 total (page inaccessible); confirmation of Surigae's actual landfall outcome beyond Sept 24, since its Sept 28-29 track-decision point falls right at this report's cutoff; any confirmed named storm beyond Surigae/No.26 that has already made or is imminently making a China landfall.

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page records more than 8 (i.e., 9 or more) distinct tropical cyclones making landfall in China for calendar year 2026. - [2026-09-02] CMA's own briefing put the confirmed landfall count at 7 as of September 1, meaning the market needs at least two more distinct landfalls in the roughly three remaining months of the season (Oct–Dec) to cross the ">8" (i.e., ≥9) threshold — a threshold, not a range, so hitting exactly 8 resolves NO. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-02/doc-iniqmmyu4508805.shtml - [2026-09-28] The two most recent numbered systems have both failed to add to the tally: Typhoon No. 25 "Dujuan" struck Japan instead of China, and as of today Typhoon No. 26 "Surigae" is tracking northeast past Okinawa toward the Izu Islands south of Tokyo (forecast to approach around October 1), explicitly not toward China. https://newsonjapan.com/article/150843.php - [2026-09-28] China's own state weather service (weather.com.cn) forecasts Surigae ("舒力基") to keep moving northeast toward waters south of Japan while weakening, rather than turning toward the Chinese coast — the second straight system in a row to recurve away from China. https://typhoon.weather.com.cn/ - [2026-09-20] Chinese meteorological commentary on the next possible system (unofficially "No. 27") shows genuine model disagreement: the U.S. GFS model suggests a strong tropical system could form near the Bashi Channel/northern South China Sea threatening South China around National Day, while the European ECMWF model shows an unusually strong, expansive subtropical high suppressing convection there entirely — i.e., no consensus that a China-bound storm will even form. https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260921A03BHK00 - [2026-09-24] Even China's own typhoon-tracking commentary described Surigae's China landfall prospects as genuinely uncertain days before its formation, and once formed its path diverged toward Japan rather than the "could make landfall in Fujian" scenario floated earlier. https://taifengshuo.com/en/news/2026-09-24-pm - [2024-09-03, reference year] The CMA's own 2024 mid-season bulletin shows how quickly a "warm/active basin, but few landfalls" scenario can occur: despite 11 typhoons having formed by September 3, 2024 (already close to normal), only 3 had made China landfall, running 2.07 below the 5.07 average for that date — evidence that overall Pacific activity does not mechanically translate into landfall counts, and shortfalls versus seasonal forecasts are a recurring pattern. https://www.cma.gov.cn/2011xzt/20160518/202409/t20240903_6531065.html - [undated, CMA reference statistic] China's National Climate Center's own long-run climatology states the average number of tropical cyclones (of tropical-storm intensity or higher) making China landfall per year is only 6.9, with the peak year (1971) at 12 and many years clustering well below 9 — underscoring that 9+ landfalls, while not rare, is above the historical median. https://www.ncc-cma.net/channel/news/newsid/1957 - [2024-10-31] CMA's own climatology further shows that autumn (Sept–Nov) contributes only 2.33 landfalls on average (1991–2020 baseline) versus 4.73 for summer, meaning the "last mile" from 7 to 9 landfalls specifically depends on an above-average autumn — a smaller, historically less reliable landfall window even in active years. https://www.cma.gov.cn/2011xzt/20160518/202410/t20241031_6669093.html - [2026-09-02] The CMA briefing's own autumn forecast range of "2–4 more landfalls" has a lower bound of 2, which combined with the already-confirmed 7 would land exactly on 9 only at the high end of that range; the low end (2) also gets to 9, but if realized landfalls underperform the forecast — as occurred in 2024 — the season could plausibly stall at 8 or fewer, which resolves NO under the literal ">8" wording. - [historical pattern, cited above by colleagues] CMA's own case-study language about Typhoon "Kong-rey"/"Yagi"-type autumn systems recurving along the Fujian/Zhejiang coast without making landfall (as with Krovanh's storm-surge warning rather than confirmed landfall, per Sept 5 reporting) illustrates that close-approach, non-landfalling systems are common in autumn and do not count toward the CMA tally even when they cause coastal impacts. BOTTOM LINE: With 7 confirmed landfalls as of September 1 and the two most recent numbered storms (Dujuan, Surigae) both recurving toward Japan rather than China, the path to a 9th landfall is not yet secured; historical autumn landfall rates (~2.33/year on average) and at least one recent analog year (2024) where realized landfalls badly undershot the seasonal forecast support a real possibility the final CMA tally stops at 8 or fewer, resolving NO. NOT FOUND: A live, current numeric tally from the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page itself (site inaccessible at fetch time); confirmation of whether the unofficial "No. 27" system near the Bashi Channel/South China Sea will actually form and make China landfall around National Day (models disagree as of Sept 20-21); and any explicit CMA statement on whether Krovanh (Sept 5) is officially logged as a landfall or only a close approach/storm-surge event.