Scan: Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related wikipedia

Planner reasoning

Long-shot candidate market. The Polymarket price is the anchor, and sibling markets (other candidates advancing, the LR primary or nominee) provide cross-checks. The Wikipedia polling page gives structured first-round polling for Lisnard versus Bardella, Philippe and Retailleau. Kalshi may carry a parallel French election market.

2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters

at a glance

RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?** - Current price (probability): 8.35% (live; bid 8% / ask 9%) - 7-day price change: -3.45% - 30-day price change: +5.60% - Total volume: $70,178 (USD notional) - Price range: 2.70% - 14.70% - Data points: 90 days - resolution_source (failed): https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/: HTTP 403 - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 24 matches. keyword 'French presidential election': 8 markets | keyword 'Lisnard': 8 markets | keyword 'Les Républicains nominee': 8 markets - kalshi_related: 2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'French presidential election': ok | keyword 'France president 2027': ok - wikipedia: Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages). Research loops, bottom lines - current state: Lisnard is a confirmed, actively campaigning candidate who claims to have met the 500-parrainage threshold (unconfirmed until the official February 2027 filing) and whose first-round polling (roughly 2–8% depending on source/methodology, with a modest recent uptick to 4-5% and even a cited 8% on Polymarket) remains far below the leading contenders (Le Pen/Bardella on the right, and a centrist figure such as Philippe often polling far ahead); no poll or trend to date shows him near the ~20%+ need - base rate: In the base-rate/outside-view sense, no Fifth-Republic presidential candidate has historically advanced to the runoff while polling in the low-to-mid single digits roughly seven months before the vote (as Lisnard does now, 1–5% depending on institute/hypothesis); such candidates have consistently been eliminated in the first round, and Polymarket's own "outright winner" pricing (6–8% for Lisnard vs. 20-40% for the frontrunners) reflects the same skepticism, implying a low prior probability for a - yes case: The single most plausible YES path is not organic polling growth from his current 2–5% but a structural one: mounting cross-party pressure (Attal's openness, Morin's petition, 70% voter support for a primary, and Retailleau's non-refusal) forces some form of right/centre "primary" or consolidation process before spring 2027, and Lisnard — the earliest and most consistent proponent, backed by a growing local-elected-official base — either wins that process or benefits from a splintering that lets - no case: The strongest NO case rests on three independent, mutually reinforcing facts: (1) mainstream pollsters still frequently omit Lisnard entirely and, when included, cap him at 3-5%, a small fraction of the leaders' 20-38% range; (2) his 500 "parrainage promises" remain self-reported and unvalidated until February–March 2027, with the Conseil constitutionnel's own history showing marginal candidates can see validated totals shrink dangerously close to the threshold; and (3) the one closest historica

tools

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? - Current price (probability): 8.35% (live; bid 8% / ask 9%) - 7-day price change: -3.45% - 30-day price change: +5.60% - Total volume: $70,178 (USD notional) - Price range:
resolution_source	FAILED	0.4s	1	https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/: HTTP 403
polymarket_related	OK	0.8s	24	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 24 matches. keyword 'French presidential election': 8 markets \| keyword 'Lisnard': 8 markets \| keyword 'Les Républicains nominee': 8 markets
kalshi_related	OK	2.5s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'French presidential election': ok \| keyword 'France president 2027': ok
wikipedia	OK	0.4s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).

research loops · 4/4 ok · 15 searches · 7 page reads

dimension	status	time	searches	page reads	report
current state	OK	39s	3	3	5996 chars
base rate	OK	40s	4	2	5231 chars
yes case	OK	44s	3	1	5882 chars
no case	OK	54s	5	1	7956 chars

report: current state

- [2026-03-31] David Lisnard officially declared his presidential candidacy on France 2's evening news the same day he resigned from Les Républicains, after Bruno Retailleau was endorsed as the LR nominee following an internal party vote; Gérald Darmanin, Laurent Wauquiez, and David Lisnard favour a primary election—the latter two seeking to include Reconquête—while Michel Barnier proposed a coalition project "Building Together" to unite the right and centre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-04-19] The Republicans held an internal vote in which Bruno Retailleau was nominated as The Republicans' candidate on 19 April 2026 following a member vote , with over 73% backing him; Lisnard subsequently left LR to run independently under his own party, New Energy (Nouvelle Énergie). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-01-20] At New Energy's new year address in Paris (over 1,800 attendees), Lisnard declared "Oui, j'irai," confirming an unequivocal presidential run rather than a mere ambition, per a campaign-strategy profile. https://lediplomate.media/tribune-david-lisnard-marches-candidature/ - [2026-09-02] Lisnard announced at the Foire de Châlons-en-Champagne that he had already recueilli the 500 promesses de parrainages needed to stand in April, saying "on est tranquille," while noting these must be confirmed in February after the official election-call decree. https://pasidupes.wordpress.com/2026/09/02/le-maire-de-cannes-david-lisnard-a-recueilli-les-500-promesses-de-parrainages/ - [2026-09-05] A Cluster17 poll (fieldwork Aug 31–Sept 1, 2026, n=1,628) credited David Lisnard with 4.2% in the first round of the 2027 presidential election. https://repere2027.fr/candidats/david-lisnard/ - [2026-09-24] A separate Cluster17-based analysis (no-Zemmour scenario) put Lisnard at 5%, positioning him as "the second force of the republican right, just behind Bruno Retailleau (7.5%)." https://www.21news.be/sondage-presidentielle-2027-lisnard-a-5-face-au-trio-de-tete/ - [2026-09-20] CNews reported Lisnard's popularity has been rising in recent weeks amid grassroots campaigning, noting a growing push for a right/center primary: "Selon un sondage Odoxa-Backbone publié le 9 septembre dans Le Figaro, 70% des électeurs de droite et du centre sont favorables à une primaire pour désigner un candidat unique à la présidentielle." In that same poll, Édouard Philippe (who opposes a primary) led with 67% of the vote among right/centre voters. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-09-20/il-est-different-et-singulier-la-campagne-de-terrain-de-david-lisnard-porte-ses-fruits (snippet via search) - [2026-09-08] Normandy regional president Hervé Morin sent a public letter to Attal, Philippe, Lisnard and Retailleau urging "responsibility" toward organizing a unifying right-wing primary, backed by a petition with over 8,000 signatures from elected officials. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-09-20/il-est-different-et-singulier-la-campagne-de-terrain-de-david-lisnard-porte-ses-fruits - [2026-09-24] A commentary piece noted the discrepancy between Lisnard's absence from many mainstream polling lists and a claim circulating on X that "David Lisnard est à 8% sur Polymarket pour 2027 et pourtant il n'est proposé naturellement dans AUCUN sondage présidentiel... Rappelons quand même que Polymarket est loin d'être un gadget: à un mois d'un événement, le favori finit du bon côté dans environ 90% des cas." https://www.21news.be/presidentielle-2027-pourquoi-les-sondages-oublient-ils-david-lisnard/ - [2026-07-10] Lisnard has been actively campaigning on policy substance, including an education-reform platform ("révolution de l'école de la Démocratie") released as part of his 2027 program under the New Energy label. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-07-10/presidentielle-2027-dans-son-programme-david-lisnard-defend-une-revolution-de - [2026-09-26 (site update)] An independent election-tracking site (ÉlyséeScope) confirms Lisnard remains a formally declared 2027 candidate under Nouvelle Énergie, contesting a field that includes Le Pen, Bardella, Retailleau, Philippe, Attal, Wauquiez, Mélenchon, Glucksmann and others; per the site the field of declared/presumed candidates is at a Fifth-Republic record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026 (election calendar)] Per the French constitution and current schedule, presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France on 18 April 2027, with a second round on 2 May if no candidate secures a majority vote. Candidates must secure 500 signatures (parrainages) from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different departments or overseas collectivities, with no more than a tenth of these signatories from any single department, to appear on the ballot; the official list is fixed by the Constitutional Council around late March 2027 per the same source cluster. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election BOTTOM LINE: Lisnard is a confirmed, actively campaigning candidate who claims to have met the 500-parrainage threshold (unconfirmed until the official February 2027 filing) and whose first-round polling (roughly 2–8% depending on source/methodology, with a modest recent uptick to 4-5% and even a cited 8% on Polymarket) remains far below the leading contenders (Le Pen/Bardella on the right, and a centrist figure such as Philippe often polling far ahead); no poll or trend to date shows him near the ~20%+ needed to reach the runoff, and a right/centre primary — which could consolidate or eliminate him — has not yet been organized. NOT FOUND: No confirmed official Constitutional Council certification of Lisnard's 500 parrainages (only self-reported claims as of September 2026); no evidence of a finalized right/centre primary process or date; no first-round polling showing Lisnard above single digits in any major national poll as of late September 2026.

report: base rate

- [2026-09-27] Cluster17 poll (fieldwork 5 Sept 2026, cited by Polymarket-linked commentary and Repère2027) puts David Lisnard at 4,2 % au 1er tour de la présidentielle 2027 (Cluster17, 5 septembre 2026) . https://repere2027.fr/candidats/david-lisnard/ - [2026-09-24] A separate Cluster17 wave (no-Zemmour hypothesis) shows Lisnard at 5%, still behind Bruno Retailleau on the right; Crédité de 5 % des voix, David Lisnard s'y affirme comme la seconde force de la droite républicaine, juste derrière Bruno Retailleau (7,5 %) . https://www.21news.be/sondage-presidentielle-2027-lisnard-a-5-face-au-trio-de-tete/ - [2026-08-07] Earlier IFOP polling (spring 2026) had him even lower: selon un sondage IFOP réalisé au printemps 2026, sa candidature ne recueille que 1 à 2 % des intentions de vote au premier tour, loin des scores de Marine Le Pen ou d'Édouard Philippe . https://www.timefrance.fr/politique/les-visages-des-presidentielles-2027-david-lisnard-le-liberal-qui-veut-desarmer-letat/ - [2026-09-16] A cross-institute tracker (Elabe + Cluster17, late Aug/early Sept 2026) confirms the range: David Lisnard est mesuré entre 3 % et 4,2 % des intentions au premier tour: 3 à 3,5 % selon Elabe (terrain 26-28 août 2026) et 4,2 % selon Cluster17 pour Le Point . https://www.lenouveaupresident.com/dossiers/david-lisnard-2027-peut-il-creer-la-surprise - [2026-09-24] Commentators note pollsters routinely omit Lisnard from many hypotheses despite his active campaign and reported parrainages, illustrating that mainstream institutes do not currently treat him as a top-tier contender: En campagne active et fort de 500 promesses de parrainages pour 2027, David Lisnard demeure pourtant le grand absent des sondages d'opinion . https://www.21news.be/presidentielle-2027-pourquoi-les-sondages-oublient-ils-david-lisnard/ - [2026-09-27] On Polymarket's "Next French Presidential Election" (outright winner) market, Lisnard trades around 6-8%, well below Le Pen (38%), Philippe (21-24%) and Mélenchon (12-13%): Polymarket reports Next French Presidential Election odds with Marine Le Pen at 38.4%, Édouard Philippe at 21.5%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5%, and David Lisnard at 8.3% . https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/next-french-presidential-election/ - [2026-09-19] A cross-platform aggregator gave a similar snapshot: As of September 19, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Next French Presidential Election are: Marine Le Pen: 38%, Édouard Philippe: 25%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 13%, David Lisnard: 6%, François Hollande: 5% . https://predictmarketcap.com/events/next-french-presidential-election - [2026-01-11] An earlier snapshot of the same Polymarket event (a different candidate hypothesis set, before Le Pen's appeal outcome) shows Lisnard even lower relative to top names such as Bardella, Philippe, Mélenchon and Le Pen, each well above him. https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-david-lisnard-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election - [2026-09-25] Wikipedia's tracker notes the historical unreliability of polls this far out, citing academic work that poll errors decline over the election timeline , meaning current low single-digit scores for Lisnard, while informative, carry substantial uncertainty over an eight-month horizon. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2027 - [2026-09-25] Wikipedia's election overview confirms the crowded, fragmented right: after Retailleau won the LR endorsement, Since Retailleau secured the party's endorsement, Wauquiez withdrew his bid and Lisnard left the party , leaving Lisnard as an independent right-wing candidate competing with Philippe, Retailleau, Bertrand, Attal and others for the same electorate — a historically difficult position from which to reach a top-two finish. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-09-25] The same overview notes the sheer number of contenders is unprecedented: The number of declared or presumed candidates is unprecedented in the Fifth Republic , which historically dilutes minor/mid-tier candidates' vote share further and reduces the base rate of any single low-polling candidate reaching round two. BOTTOM LINE: In the base-rate/outside-view sense, no Fifth-Republic presidential candidate has historically advanced to the runoff while polling in the low-to-mid single digits roughly seven months before the vote (as Lisnard does now, 1–5% depending on institute/hypothesis); such candidates have consistently been eliminated in the first round, and Polymarket's own "outright winner" pricing (6–8% for Lisnard vs. 20-40% for the frontrunners) reflects the same skepticism, implying a low prior probability for a second-round breakthrough absent a major campaign shock. NOT FOUND: No systematic historical dataset was found quantifying exactly how often candidates polling under ~5% a year (or seven months) before a French presidential election went on to reach the second round; no official Ministry of the Interior or Conseil constitutionnel statement yet exists confirming Lisnard has secured his 500 parrainages (only self-reported "500 promesses" figures from his own movement were found).

report: yes case

- [2026-08-29] Lisnard has escalated his call for a primary beyond the earlier Le Monde tribune, proposing on CNews live broadcast "une grande primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre-droit" as the explicit mechanism to unify the fragmented right rather than let it split among rivals. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-08-29/david-lisnard-propose-une-grande-primaire-ouverte-de-la-droite-et-du-centre-droit - [2026-08-28] Unlike Retailleau ("aujourd'hui, je n'y crois pas" but "je ne refuse aucune compétition") and unlike Philippe who flatly opposes it, Gabriel Attal has said on BFMTV-RMC he is not "afraid" of a primary, arguing there is no longer a clear favourite in the centre-right bloc — meaning at least one major rival is open to the exact process Lisnard is pushing. https://pasidupes.wordpress.com/2026/08/28/david-lisnard-reitere-sa-proposition-dune-primaire-de-droite-avec-ceux-qui-veulent/ - [2026-09-08] The pressure for a primary widened further when Édouard Philippe himself proposed a post-Toussaint unity meeting of right/centre forces, prompting Lisnard to needle on BFMTV that "Depuis des mois, j'alerte sur la dispersion qui peut faire perdre... Donc c'est bien, Édouard Philippe s'en rend compte," positioning Lisnard as the original and most consistent advocate of consolidation just as rivals start moving toward his position. https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20260908-pr%C3%A9sidentielle-philippe-tend-la-main-%C3%A0-la-droite-et-au-centre-retailleau-la-refuse - [2026-09-08] Even Retailleau, who rejected Philippe's specific "macroniste" meeting, did not rule out a primary outright, and Horizons allies argued internally that Retailleau's refusal could soften "après les élections sénatoriales du 27 septembre" — i.e., a concrete near-term date after which the primary question could reopen. https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20260908-pr%C3%A9sidentielle-philippe-tend-la-main-%C3%A0-la-droite-et-au-centre-retailleau-la-refuse - [2026-09-25] Independent tracker Le Nouveau Président confirms Lisnard's party Nouvelle Énergie claims close to 30,000 members and 1,800 elected officials as of 16 September 2026, an organizational base the tracker notes "peut faciliter la collecte des 500 parrainages" and could underpin a longer campaign push, distinct from the earlier "500 promesses" claim alone. https://www.lenouveaupresident.com/dossiers/david-lisnard-2027-peut-il-creer-la-surprise - [2026-09-25] The same tracker's conditional-analysis section lays out the explicit YES mechanism: "une recomposition à droite, une notoriété nationale accrue au-delà de son ancrage local, ou un ralliement d'élus" are the named factors that could lift Lisnard, contingent on both a national breakthrough in visibility and a clarification (i.e., primary or rival withdrawals) of the crowded right/centre field. https://www.lenouveaupresident.com/dossiers/david-lisnard-2027-peut-il-creer-la-surprise - [2026-09-20] CNews's field-reporting piece frames the mechanism concretely: Lisnard is described as having "la gagne" after growing ground momentum since January, having become the first political figure to claim the 500 parrainage threshold on 2 September, giving him an organizational/legitimacy head-start relative to rivals still short of that milestone. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-09-20/il-est-different-et-singulier-la-campagne-de-terrain-de-david-lisnard-porte-ses-fruits - [2026-09-25] Lisnard continues visible, sustained campaign travel (Alsace meeting in Benfeld) explicitly built around his call for a primaire "la plus large possible" and framing early primary-style contests as "quarts de finale" meant to "éliminer les macronistes," i.e., a stated strategic path where he positions himself to survive to a final right-wing runoff before the actual first round. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-09-25/presidentielle-2027-david-lisnard-poursuit-sa-campagne-ce-vendredi-en-alsace - [2026-09-09] An Odoxa-Backbone poll found 70% of right/centre voters favour a primary to designate a single candidate, giving Lisnard's core proposal broad grassroots legitimacy even though the same poll shows Philippe (who opposes a primary) currently leading that primary hypothesis with 67%. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2026-09-20/il-est-different-et-singulier-la-campagne-de-terrain-de-david-lisnard-porte-ses-fruits - [2026-07-07] Marine Le Pen's ineligibility sentence was reduced on appeal to 45 months (30 suspended), with the 15 months already served meaning she "retrouve son éligibilité" for the 18 April/2 May 2027 poll — removing one chaos scenario (a forced RN succession fight) that some right-leaning strategists had hoped could scramble the field in minor candidates' favour, though a pending cassation appeal (decision possibly as late as early 2027) still leaves residual uncertainty. https://kohenavocats.com/marine-le-pen-2027-ineligibilite-bracelet-cassation-eligibilite/ BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible YES path is not organic polling growth from his current 2–5% but a structural one: mounting cross-party pressure (Attal's openness, Morin's petition, 70% voter support for a primary, and Retailleau's non-refusal) forces some form of right/centre "primary" or consolidation process before spring 2027, and Lisnard — the earliest and most consistent proponent, backed by a growing local-elected-official base — either wins that process or benefits from a splintering that lets him overtake weakened rivals; absent such a consolidation event, his sub-5% standing offers no direct route to the runoff. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, format, or binding commitment for any right/centre primary as of late September 2026; no poll showing Lisnard winning a hypothetical primary against Philippe, Retailleau or Attal; no evidence Sarkozy or other national kingmakers have formally endorsed Lisnard for 2027.

report: no case

- [2026-09-08] Normandy president Hervé Morin's push for a right/centre primary specifically targeted "avant la fin de l'année 2026," meaning even if a primary happens it would only run in the final weeks of 2026 or early 2027 — leaving Lisnard's independent, low single-digit campaign to face a compressed, chaotic consolidation window rather than a settled one. Hervé Morin, président de la région Normandie, veut profiter de cette fenêtre pour pousser les principaux prétendants à s'entendre, écrivant à Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau et David Lisnard afin de leur proposer une primaire ouverte avant la fin de l'année 2026, dans le but de départager les candidatures de la droite et du centre avant le début de la campagne présidentielle. - [2026-09-27] In the two most recent major national polls captured by Wikipedia's tracker — OpinionWay (9-10 Sept) and Harris Interactive (8-10 Sept) — Lisnard is not even included as a tested option, while minor figures like Dupont-Aignan, Hollande and Zemmour are; this shows leading French pollsters still do not treat him as a top-tier contender worth a line in their standard hypothesis grids, even five months after he became an independent candidate. - [2026-09-thereabouts] A separate tracker (Le Nouveau Président) explicitly confirms this exclusion pattern for its own reference wave. "Fait — Il n'est pas testé dans toutes les vagues : notre vague de référence (Toluna Harris, 8-10 septembre 2026) ne l'inclut pas." This is a mechanism, not just an artifact: pollsters typically only add a candidate once they judge the parrainage/viability threshold credible, and their continued omission signals professional skepticism about Lisnard clearing that bar. - [2026-09-24] Even when tested, Lisnard's best recent score (5%, per Cluster17's no-Zemmour hypothesis) places him only as the "second force" of the republican right, se positionne directement derrière Bruno Retailleau, testé pour sa part à 7,5 % — meaning he trails not the frontrunners but a second-tier LR rival, with the top three (Le Pen, Philippe, Mélenchon) each polling roughly four-to-six times higher. - [2007 precedent, cited by Conseil constitutionnel] The Conseil constitutionnel's own historical review of parrainages notes that fringe/independent candidates who self-report having "500 promesses" often see the number shrink on validation — the 2007 example of José Bové shows a candidate ending up with barely enough after annulations. "José Bové qui, après quatre annulations, arrive à 503, ce qui est encore suffisant." Lisnard's September 2 claim of exactly 500 "promises" (not yet 500 validated signatures, confirmable only in February 2027) sits precisely in this fragile zone, per the primary source itself. une candidature n'est retenue à la fin de la période de recueil des parrainages que si elle respecte plusieurs conditions cumulatives : au moins 500 parrainages conformes et validés, signés par des élus représentant au moins 30 départements ou collectivités d'outre-mer et moins d'un dixième des parrainages provenant d'un même département. - [2026-09 dated analysis] Public Sénat's independent count of the field states plainly that the eventual "starting line" will be far smaller than today's roughly thirty declared/presumed candidates, and frames parrainage validation — not polls — as the near-term sorting mechanism most likely to remove marginal candidates. À huit mois de l'élection présidentielle, la course à l'Élysée donne l'impression d'une compétition sans limite ; une trentaine de personnalités, déclarées, pressenties ou envisagées, ambitionnent déjà de se présenter ; mais entre les primaires, le financement des campagnes et surtout les 500 parrainages d'élus nécessaires, la liste devrait rapidement se réduire. - [2022 precedent, official result] The single closest structural analogue — an LR mayor-turned-national candidate of the "republican right" bloc who entered the race as a credible, well-funded, media-covered contender — is Valérie Pécresse in 2022, who despite winning an actual party primary (unlike Lisnard, who has none) finished fifth with just 4.78% of the vote, missing the second round by a wide margin. La candidate LR est éliminée au soir du premier tour, en arrivant en cinquième position, avec 4,78% des voix, selon les résultats définitifs du scrutin. Commentary at the time noted this made LR's absence from the runoff a second consecutive occurrence. Pour la deuxième fois consécutive, la droite républicaine ne parvient pas à se qualifier pour le second tour de l'élection présidentielle. Lisnard currently polls below even Pécresse's final tally in every wave found. - [2026-09-09, Odoxa-Backbone poll for Le Figaro] While 70% of right/centre sympathizers want a unifying primary, the poll also shows a strong preference (64%) for an "open" primary rather than a party-members-only vote, which — if realized — would pit Lisnard against the far more popular Philippe/Attal in a head-to-head elimination round rather than letting him coast into the first round as a standalone candidate. Selon une enquête Odoxa-Backbone pour Le Figaro, publiée le 9 septembre 2026, 70 % des sympathisants de la droite et du centre sont favorables à une primaire pour désigner un candidat commun à l'élection présidentielle ; parmi ces sympathisants, 64 % préfèrent une primaire ouverte. - [2026-08/09 Harris/Ifop hypotheticals] In scenarios where Philippe runs as the sole centrist, he alone reaches roughly 18-19.5% and a runoff spot against Le Pen, per Elabe/Cluster17/Orange-cited figures — meaning any successful right/centre consolidation (Morin's stated goal) would functionally eliminate Lisnard's independent path rather than boost it, since consolidation scenarios concentrate votes on Philippe or Retailleau, not on lower-polling figures like Lisnard. dans le scénario où Edouard Philippe serait l'unique candidat du bloc central, il se qualifierait au second tour face à Marine Le Pen, avec 18 % des suffrages. - [2026-09-16] Even in polls that do test him, Lisnard's presence is treated as one "hypothesis" among several fluid scenarios pollsters run — implying his effective, single, stable polling floor across all published waves since spring 2026 has ranged only 1% to 5%, never approaching the 15%+ needed to threaten the current top three. - [2026-09 status] No source found confirms an actual signed agreement, date, or binding rules for any right/centre primary; as of the most recent reporting the idea remains, per Le JDD, a recurring but unresolved proposal. SERPENT DE MER. Emmanuel Macron l'a envisagé sans jamais le mettre en œuvre. Retailleau, Le Pen, Lisnard, Attal, Philippe, tous proposent leurs référendums. Absent such consolidation, Lisnard remains one of several fragmented right-of-LR candidates splitting an already-diluted vote share, which historically dooms minor candidates in first-round elimination. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on three independent, mutually reinforcing facts: (1) mainstream pollsters still frequently omit Lisnard entirely and, when included, cap him at 3-5%, a small fraction of the leaders' 20-38% range; (2) his 500 "parrainage promises" remain self-reported and unvalidated until February–March 2027, with the Conseil constitutionnel's own history showing marginal candidates can see validated totals shrink dangerously close to the threshold; and (3) the one closest historical analogue (Pécresse 2022, an actual primary winner) still missed the second round with under 5% — a bar Lisnard has never yet cleared even in polls, making a second-round breakthrough a marked outlier scenario. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, format, or binding commitment for a right/centre primary as of late September 2026; no official Conseil constitutionnel validation data on Lisnard's parrainages; no poll showing Lisnard above 5% in any wave through September 27, 2026.

3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean

claude-opus-5-5

62% conf

Yes	4%
No	96%

(0) Nothing is resolved yet. The first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027, and the Interior Ministry source could not be read (HTTP 403), but nothing suggests an early election. (a) About 6.7 months remain until the first round, and the ballot is only fixed after parrainage validation in February–March 2027. (b) Status quo: Lisnard polls 3–5% (Elabe 3–3.5%, Cluster17 4.2–5%, IFOP spring 1–2%). He trails Retailleau (7.5%) on the right and sits far below Le Pen, Philippe and Mélenchon, and the runoff threshold is roughly 18–22%, so the status quo is No. (c) No: a right/centre consolidation, if it happens, concentrates votes on Philippe (about 18% as sole centrist) or Retailleau. Lisnard stays a fragmented independent, like Pécresse's 4.78% in 2022, or struggles to validate his self-reported 500 parrainage promises. (d) Yes: an open primary is forced after the Senate elections, Lisnard wins it on activist energy, rivals collapse, and a unified right surges past Philippe or the left for second place. That requires several unlikely steps and a Macron-2017-scale rise from a lower base. The market anchor is 8.35%, the same price as Polymarket's outright-win market for him, which is internally inconsistent: advancing should be priced above winning, so the pair looks hype-driven, not poll-driven. Commentary also notes a social-media narrative about his Polymarket price. No Fifth-Republic candidate polling about 4% at this stage has reached the runoff. I shade below the market to about 4%, keeping tail room for primary dynamics and polling error this far out.

claude-opus-5-5

62% conf

Yes	5%
No	95%

(0) Nothing is resolved yet. The first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027, and Lisnard still has to confirm his parrainages in February–March 2027 and then finish top-two. The Interior Ministry resolution source could not be read (HTTP 403). (a) About 6.7 months remain until the first round. (b) If nothing changes, Lisnard is eliminated in round one. He polls 3–4.2% (Elabe, Cluster17) and at best 5% in a no-Zemmour hypothesis, trailing Retailleau at 7.5%. The frontrunners run from about 18–20% (Philippe) up to the 30s (Le Pen), and major pollsters such as Harris and OpinionWay often do not test him at all. (c) NO scenario: the right stays fragmented, or it consolidates around Philippe or Retailleau. Lisnard stays in the low single digits or fails to validate 500 signatures, and Le Pen and Philippe or Mélenchon take the runoff spots. The Pécresse 2022 precedent (4.78% despite winning a primary) shows how weak this lane is. (d) YES scenario: an open right/centre primary happens, Lisnard wins it or rivals collapse, and a consolidated right vote plus a late surge carry him past about 18–20% against a split centre. This requires several unlikely steps, and polling shows consolidation tends to favour Philippe. The Polymarket anchor of 8.35% looks inflated relative to the polls. The market's separate 'win' contract trades at the same 8.35%, which is internally inconsistent and suggests enthusiast buying rather than informed pricing. I therefore shade below the anchor to about 5%, keeping room for the large polling uncertainty this far out.

claude-opus-5-5

62% conf

Yes	4%
No	96%

(0) Not resolved: Lisnard still needs validated sponsorships and a leap from 3-5% polling to ~18-20%+ by 18 April 2027. (a) ~6.7 months remain. (b) Status quo is a first-round exit far behind Le Pen, Philippe and Mélenchon. (c) No: fragmented right leaves him at ~4% like Pécresse 2022, or consolidation concentrates on Philippe (~18% in single-centrist scenarios). (d) Yes: an open right/centre primary occurs and Lisnard upsets Philippe (who leads primary polling at 67%), then the unified bloc edges past Philippe/Mélenchon. The 8.35% market price equals his outright-win price, a logical inconsistency suggesting hype-driven retail pricing; with no historical precedent for a runoff from this polling level, I shade well below the market to ~4.5%.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	6%
No	94%

(0) The resolving condition has not occurred: the first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, and Lisnard must first become an official candidate and then finish in the top two, with credible reporting or French government results confirming it. (a) About seven months remain until the scheduled first round and market close, while the rules allow results through December 31, 2027. (b) If nothing materially changes, Lisnard remains a fragmented-right independent polling around 3–5%, far below the roughly 18–20% presently associated with a runoff place, so the status quo is No. (c) The straightforward No scenario is that his promised endorsements are validated but he contests the first round against Philippe, Retailleau, and other right/centre candidates and is eliminated in the low single digits; failure to validate 500 signatures or losing a primary would also produce No. (d) The strongest Yes scenario is a right/centre consolidation or primary—supported in principle by 70% of that electorate—in which Lisnard unexpectedly defeats stronger rivals and inherits enough of their support to reach the top two. I anchor on Polymarket's 8.35% Yes price but move modestly lower because no primary is agreed, Lisnard has never exceeded 5% in the cited major polling, his signatures remain unvalidated, and the identical 8.35% price on the separate outright-winner market suggests this contract's price may not cleanly reflect the easier advancement condition.

gpt-5.6-sol

74% conf

Yes	7%
No	93%

(0) The resolving condition has not been met: the first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, and the Ministry of the Interior could not be accessed, while no credible source reports an earlier election; Lisnard must officially qualify and then finish in the top two or win outright, with results known by December 31, 2027. (a) About 203 days remain until the scheduled first round and market close, leaving meaningful time for consolidation or campaign shocks. (b) If nothing changes, Lisnard runs as a fragmented independent-right candidate polling roughly 3–5% and is eliminated, so the status quo is No. (c) The central No scenario is that no binding right/centre primary occurs—or one occurs and Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, or another better-supported rival wins—while Lisnard remains far below the roughly 15–20% likely needed for second place; his still-unvalidated 500 sponsorship promises add ballot-access risk. (d) The plausible Yes scenario is a major right/centre consolidation in which Lisnard unexpectedly wins a primary or receives decisive withdrawals and endorsements, converting his organizational base and recent momentum into a runoff-level coalition. I anchor on Polymarket's 8.35% Yes price but move modestly lower to 7% because recent national polling never places him above 5%, major pollsters often omit him, and even the proposed primary currently favors Philippe heavily, although the seven-month horizon prevents treating No as certain.

4. Final plain mean of 5 draws

5% (66% confidence)

Yes: 5% No: 95%

Mean of 5 draws (0.04, 0.05, 0.04, 0.07, 0.07). (0) Nothing is resolved yet. The first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027, and the Interior Ministry source could not be read (HTTP 403), but nothing suggests an early election. (a) About 6.7 months remain until the first round, and the ballot is only fixed after parrainage validation in February–March 2027. (b) Status quo: Lisnard polls 3–5% (Elabe 3–3.5%, Cluster17 4.2–5%, IFOP spring 1–2%). He trails Retailleau (7.5%) on the right and sits far below Le Pen, Philippe and Mélenchon, and the runoff threshold is roughly 18–22%, so the status quo is No. (c) No: a right/centre consolidation, if it happens, concentrates votes on Philippe (about 18% as sole centrist) or Retailleau. Lisnard stays a fragmented independent, like Pécresse's 4.78% in 2022, or struggles to validate his self-reported 500 parrainage promises. (d) Yes: an open primary is forced after the Senate elections, Lisnard wins it on activist energy, rivals collapse, and a unified right surges past Philippe or the left for second place. That requires several unlikely steps and a Macron-2017-scale rise from a lower base. The market anchor is 8.35%, the same price as Polymarket's outright-win market for him, which is internally inconsistent: advancing should be priced above winning, so the pair looks hype-driven, not poll-driven. Commentary also notes a social-media narrative about his Polymarket price. No Fifth-Republic candidate polling about 4% at this stage has reached the runoff. I shade below the market to about 4%, keeping tail room for primary dynamics and polling error this far out.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 111.4s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.