Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026? — Grants license

- [2026-08-27] The NRC's official COL application tracker lists all currently pending Combined License applications; it still includes only legacy large-LWR applications from the 2007-2009 era (e.g., Bellefonte, Callaway, Comanche Peak, Levy, Turkey Point, Lee, Harris, South Texas Project, etc.) plus Oklo's Aurora and the newly filed Fermi America application — "The links in the table below provide information on the COL applications that the NRC has received to date. The activities associated with reviewing these applications are reflected in the individual links for docketed COL applications." No application has moved to license issuance; the page only removes an entry once a license is issued. - [2025-09-08] Fermi America's COL application for four AP1000 units (Project Matador, Texas) was accepted by the NRC only as a **partial** application; "Fermi America is expected to submit site-specific information throughout 2026." - [2026-03-20] The NRC opened a 30-day NEPA scoping period for Fermi America's COL environmental review, meaning the environmental impact statement process for that project was still at its earliest stage "the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) announces its intent to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS) to evaluate the potential environmental impacts associated with Fermi America's Combined License (COL) application... The NRC is initiating a 30-day public scoping period." A full COL review (safety + environmental + mandatory hearing) historically takes 3-4+ years, making a 2026 decision on Fermi America essentially impossible. - [2026-03-30] The NRC finalized a new optional licensing rule, "Part 53," "published a final rule on a new reactor licensing process on March 30, 2026... commonly referred to as 'Part 53'... aims to 'provide optionality and make licensing advanced nuclear reactors faster, simpler, and more cost-effective.'" This rule took effect April 29, 2026, but no applicant has yet used Part 53 to obtain a COL. - [2026-08-20] The most advanced near-term reactor licensing action, Long Mott Generating Station (four X-energy Xe-100 units, Texas), is a **construction permit** application under 10 CFR Part 50, not a combined license: "the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is providing public notice of an uncontested hearing on a construction permit application from Long Mott Energy, LLC... submitted to the NRC a construction permit application... The facility, designated as LMGS, would be an 800 megawatts-thermal nuclear power plant comprising four X-Energy, LLC (X-energy) Xe-100 small modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors." Its mandatory hearing occurred September 22, 2026, but even if granted, a construction permit is not a COL and would not satisfy this market's resolution criteria. - [2026-06 approx] Industry trackers report TVA's Clinch River BWRX-300 decision is also a **construction permit**, not a COL, expected around December 2026: "NRC decision on TVA's Clinch River permit (expected December 2026). The first US construction permit for a BWRX-300." This too would not count as a "combined license" under the question's wording even if issued on schedule. - [2026-03-19] Oklo's Aurora COL review remains in pre-application/design-review stages; Oklo has received DOE safety agreements and an NRC materials license, but "Oklo announced that it has received two nuclear safety design agreement (NSDA) approvals from the DOE and a materials license from the NRC" — not a combined license. Company statements (per Wikipedia, updated 2026) still target Aurora-INL commercial operations only by 2028, implying the COL itself is not expected imminently. - [2026 (May, updated)] An industry SMR tracker states plainly: "TerraPower Natrium (Construction Permit application under review), Kairos Power Hermes (construction permit issued for test reactor), X-energy Xe-100, Holtec SMR-300, Oklo Aurora, and GE Hitachi BWRX-300 are the most advanced designs in active NRC review or pre-application." None are described as approaching COL issuance in 2026. - [2026-02] Kairos Power's Hermes reactor (Oak Ridge, TN) is proceeding under construction-permit/operating-license track, not COL: "As of February 2026, Kairos is preparing to submit an operating license application for the Hermes reactor." - [2026-09-14] NRC's news release stream (checked through Sept 24, 2026) shows recent agency activity focused on rulemaking, licensing process advisories, and unrelated matters (e.g., a state radioactive-materials oversight agreement, a medical isotope facility hearing) — no NRC news release in the last 30 days announces issuance of a new COL for a nuclear power facility. BOTTOM LINE: As of September 25, 2026, no pending application is a genuine Combined License case likely to reach an NRC final decision by December 31, 2026 — Fermi America's COL is still only in early environmental scoping, Oklo's Aurora COL has not yet been formally docketed for full review, and the two projects nearest to a late-2026 NRC decision (Long Mott, TVA Clinch River) are construction-permit rather than combined-license actions, which would not satisfy this market's specific "combined license" resolution criterion. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any COL application currently in the mandatory-hearing or final-decision stage before the NRC; no NRC announcement of a COL issuance date scheduled before end of 2026; no confirmation that Oklo's Aurora COL application has advanced beyond pre-application/design-review status to a docketed, under-review COL with a hearing schedule.

- [2026-08-27] The NRC's official tracking page lists Once a license is issued, the license holder is tracked at Combined License Holders for New Reactors , and its holder page confirms the full historical record: COLs issued only in 2012 (Vogtle x2), 2012 (V.C. Summer x2, later terminated), 2015 (Fermi), 2016 (Lee x2, South Texas Project x2, later terminated), 2017 (North Anna), 2018 (Turkey Point x2) — https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col-holder - [2026-08-27 update] NRC's own summary states Since June 2007, the NRC has received and docketed 18 combined license (COL) applications for 28 new, large light-water reactors , of which the NRC has issued COLs for 14 reactors at Fermi, MI; Levy County, FL; North Anna, VA; South Texas Project, TX; Turkey Point, FL; V.C. Summer, SC; Vogtle, GA; and W.S. Lee, SC — https://nrc.gov/about-nrc/nrcataglance - [historical] Of the 18 dockets, The NRC suspended or canceled 10 COL application reviews at the request of the applicants for Bell Bend, PA; Bellefonte, AL; Callaway, MO; Calvert Cliffs, MD; Comanche Peak, TX; Grand Gulf, MS; Nine Mile Point, NY; River Bend, LA; Shearon Harris, NC; and Victoria County Station, TX , showing most COL dockets never reach approval — https://nrc.gov/about-nrc/nrcataglance - [2026-06-22] Reviews under the Part 52 COL pathway historically took very long: The first two Part 52 Combined License reviews took approximately 46 to 48 months. Vogtle Units 3 and 4 were docketed March 28, 2008 and the COLs (NPF-91 and NPF-92) were issued February 10, 2012, about 46.5 months — https://invariant-ai.com/how-long-does-nrc-license-take - [2026-06-22] The other original Part 52 project ran similarly long: both AP1000 Combined License reviews ran about 46 to 48 months: Vogtle 3 and 4 (docketed March 28, 2008; COLs NPF-91 and NPF-92 issued February 10, 2012) and V.C. Summer 2 and 3 (docketed March 27, 2008; NPF-93 and NPF-94 issued March 30, 2012) — https://invariant-ai.com/how-long-does-nrc-license-take - [2026-08-27] The only large-LWR COL applications currently active (not withdrawn/issued/terminated) per NRC's current table are Aurora-Oklo, Bell Bend (suspended), Bellefonte (suspended), Callaway (suspended), Calvert Cliffs (suspended), Comanche Peak (suspended), Fermi Unit 3, Fermi America Units 1-4, Grand Gulf (suspended), Levy (issued/terminated), Nine Mile Point (suspended), River Bend (suspended), Shearon Harris (suspended), Victoria County (suspended) — meaning the only genuinely live, new COL effort is Fermi America — https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col - [2025-09-10] Fermi America's COL application is only partially docketed; NRC set the NRC's schedule sets February 28, 2026, as the deadline for an environmental impact statement and December 31, 2026, for the final submission of application materials — meaning the full multi-year technical review clock would not even start until early 2027 — https://www.ans.org/news/2025-09-10/article-7357/fermi-america-looks-to-go-public-as-nrc-accepts-cola-for-ap1000s/ - [2026-09-23] As of late September 2026, Fermi America submitted Part 1 of its application for 10 CFR Part 52 combined licenses...for four AP1000 advanced passive pressurized-water reactors...has submitted two of three parts of a COLA and the NRC accepted for docketing. The NRC is currently engaged in review activities on these parts and will perform an acceptance review and establish the schedule and resources for the entire project when the third part is submitted — the formal review schedule/timeline has not yet even begun — https://www.nrc.gov/facilities-safety/new-reactors/large-light-water-reactors/combined-license-applications-for-new-reactors/fermi-america-president-donald-j-trump-advanced-energy-and-intelligence-campus-units-1-4 - [2025-09-10] Fermi America's own projected schedule targets first reactor operational far beyond 2026: Fermi America currently plans to deploy its first AP1000 in 2032, with the next three coming in 2034, 2035, and 2036, respectively. That ambitious timeline will depend on many things going right for the company — implying COL issuance (a precursor to construction) is expected well before 2032, but no official NRC decision date within 2026 has been set — https://www.ans.org/news/2025-09-10/article-7357/fermi-america-looks-to-go-public-as-nrc-accepts-cola-for-ap1000s/ - [2026-08-27] Oklo's only submitted COL application (Aurora) remains unresolved since its 2022 denial; per Wikipedia, Oklo's application for a combined construction and operating license for this version of the Aurora powerhouse was initially denied by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on January 6, 2022...Oklo has remained engaged with the NRC since that decision through pre-application activities and readiness work intended to support a future combined license application. In 2025, Oklo reported completing the NRC's pre-application readiness assessment for Phase 1 of its Aurora combined license process — no new COL application has actually been re-filed or approved as of Sept 2026 — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklo_Inc. - [2025-12-12] Note EO 14300 reform context: the administration cites the dramatically low historical approval rate, stating between 1954 and 1978, the United States authorized the construction of 133 reactors, while since 1978 only two have entered commercial operation , and mandates binding licensing deadlines: no more than eighteen months for decisions on new reactor applications going forward — but this reform (18-month target) applies to new applications going forward and does not shorten the multi-year process already underway for any live COL — https://www.catf.us/resource/actions-address-executive-order-14300-reforming-nuclear-regulatory-commission/ BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for a full COL (construction + operations) approval is low-frequency (roughly one every 1–2 years during the 2012–2018 wave, then a seven-year gap with zero since 2018) and each approval has historically taken 40+ months of formal review after docketing; the only live large-LWR COL effort (Fermi America) had not even completed its acceptance/docketing process as of September 2026 and targets a 2032 deployment, while Oklo's Aurora COL has not been resubmitted since its 2022 denial — so the reference class strongly implies no new COL is likely to be issued by Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No NRC-published or industry-reported specific COL Commission-vote date scheduled within 2026 for any applicant; no betting-market or expert-forecast probability estimates specifically on this Kalshi question were located.

- [2025-05-23] President Trump's four nuclear EOs, including EO 14300, explicitly targeted "achieving deployment of demonstration reactors as soon as next year" and directed NRC to establish "an expedited pathway to approve reactor designs that have already been approved by the DOE or DOD, focusing only on new risks not evaluated by those agencies" and "a process for high-volume licensing of microreactors and modular reactors." This creates a plausible mechanism — DOE-validated designs skipping much of NRC's usual technical review — that could compress a COL timeline dramatically if applied to a live applicant. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/president-trump-signs-4-executive-orders - [2025-12-12] EO 14300 imposes binding agency deadlines: "Within nine months (i.e., by February 2026), the NRC must issue notices of proposed rulemaking... Within eighteen months (i.e., by November 2026), the NRC is required to issue final rules and guidance to conclude the process." The administration also set "binding licensing deadlines: no more than eighteen months for decisions on new reactor applications." If NRC leadership wants to demonstrate the reform is working before year-end, a symbolic or accelerated COL decision — even on a smaller/simpler design — would be the highest-visibility proof point, and political pressure to produce one before Dec 31, 2026 is real and documented. https://www.catf.us/resource/actions-address-executive-order-14300-reforming-nuclear-regulatory-commission/ - [2026-03-30] NRC finalized "Part 53," a new voluntary licensing framework explicitly designed to let advanced/DOE- or DOD-tested designs use "relevant information gathered from a utilization facility that has been previously authorized by the Department of Energy or the Department of Defense" to satisfy portions of NRC review — effectively a shortcut mechanism that, if invoked aggressively by an applicant with an already-operating DOE-authorized unit (e.g., Oklo's Aurora at INL), could shrink the remaining NRC-specific review scope. https://www.regulations.gov/document/NRC-2025-1503-0001 - [2026-08 (per company materials)] Oklo reports "First criticality achieved at Groves in August 2026" under DOE authorization, and states it has secured "DOE authorization and NRC materials licence secured" — meaning Oklo now has an operating, DOE-authorized unit that could serve as the real-world demonstration basis for expedited NRC conversion to a commercial COL, which is precisely the pathway EO 14300 was designed to enable. https://oklo.com/regulatory - [2026-01-21] NRC has already begun an audit of Oklo's DOE authorization package "to facilitate...DOE authorization to an NRC power reactor license through a future application," confirming NRC staff are actively engaging now, not waiting for a full new docket, to prepare the DOE-to-NRC conversion pathway that EO 14300 calls for. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2614/ML26147A372.pdf - [2025-09-30] Oklo's Principal Design Criteria topical report was accepted for review in "just 15 days, compared to the typical 30–60 days," with NRC telling Oklo the "PDC draft evaluation is expected to be issued in early 2026, less than half the traditional review timeline." This is concrete, dated evidence that NRC is already processing Oklo-related submittals materially faster than historical norms — the clearest documented case of the EO's speed mandate translating into real schedule compression. https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2025/Oklos-NRC-Principal-Design-Criteria-Topical-Report-Accepted-for-Review-Under-an-Accelerated-Timeline/default.aspx - [2025-07-17] Oklo announced it had passed its NRC "pre-application readiness assessment" with "no significant gaps identified that would hinder acceptance of the application," and stated it planned to submit the first phase of the Aurora-INL COLA in 2025, "enabling future follow-on applications to serve its growing pipeline." A "no significant gaps" readiness finding is the strongest pre-filing signal NRC gives that an application is likely to be accepted and docketed smoothly, removing one common source of delay (RAI cycles over missing information) that sank Oklo's original 2020 application. https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2025/Oklo-Advances-Licensing-with-Completion-of-NRC-Readiness-Assessment/default.aspx - [2026-05-23] DOE's one-year retrospective on the EOs confirms the acceleration agenda is producing real institutional output, not just rhetoric: "the goal of at least three reactor designs reaching criticality by July 4, 2026... DOE selected 11 projects to pilot their designs through this new pathway — three of which secured a Final Documented Safety Analysis as of May 2026." This demonstrates the administration is capable of hitting compressed nuclear milestones it sets for itself, lending some credibility to a claim that a compressed COL decision is achievable if political will is applied. https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/one-year-after-executive-orders-us-nuclear-energy-renaissance-full-swing - [2026-01 (Balch summary)] Industry counsel flagged that with the Westinghouse–government AP1000 term sheet and hyperscaler-driven demand, "could 2026 be the year that a truly new large light water reactor project that leverages the standardization principle embodied in Part 52 — i.e., expedited licensing of subsequent AP1000 reactors — is publicly announced?" — showing legal/industry observers themselves see 2026 as plausibly transformative for licensing speed, even if skeptical on exact timing. https://www.balch.com/insights/publications/2026/01/key-policy-moves-are-powering-nuclear-growth BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case does not rest on any single COL application currently on a disclosed near-term Commission-decision schedule; it rests on the combination of (a) a hard November 2026 EO 14300 deadline for NRC to finalize accelerated rules and licensing deadlines, (b) Oklo's Aurora-INL program having cleared readiness review, achieved DOE-authorized criticality, and already showing NRC review times cut in half or better, and (c) an explicit administration goal of demonstrating fast-tracked nuclear approvals within its first two years — all of which make a surprise, unusually fast COL action (most plausibly for Oklo's Aurora, using DOE-authorization credit under new Part 53/EO pathways) the most coherent, evidence-backed route to a YES resolution, however far it remains from confirmed. NOT FOUND: No confirmation that Oklo's Phase 1 Aurora-INL COLA has actually been formally docketed by NRC as of September 2026 (the January 2026 audit letter shows NRC engagement with DOE materials, not an accepted COL application); no NRC-published Commission vote date or hearing schedule for any COL in 2026; no official statement from NRC or the White House naming a specific COL applicant as the intended showcase for the EO 14300 November 2026 deadline.

- [2026-08-27] The NRC's own Aurora–Oklo application page — the only official record of Oklo's COL status — states the staff "has ended its review of the Oklo Aurora custom combined license application" and "denied the application, without prejudice" in January 2022, and explicitly notes "this web page will no longer be updated," confirming as of the most recent NRC review date that no new Oklo COL has been re-filed or docketed. https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/aurora-oklo - [2026-09-14/09-23] The Fermi America (Project Matador) COL page, updated as recently as September 2026, still shows the application only "docketed" for parts 1–2, with the NRC stating it "will perform an acceptance review and establish the schedule and resources for the entire project when the third part is submitted" — meaning the formal multi-year technical-review clock had not even started as of late September 2026. https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/fermi-energy-intel-campus - [2026-06-08] Even the NRC's own deregulatory push acknowledges the statutory baseline: the ADVANCE Act "requires the NRC (for certain combined license applications) to... complete 'any necessary public licensing hearings and related processes' not later than two years after docketing the application" — a two-year floor that, applied to Fermi America's still-incomplete docketing, cannot produce a final COL decision before 2028–2029, let alone by end of 2026. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/08/2026-11451/policy-statement-on-mandatory-hearings-for-reactor-licensing - [2026-06-10] The NRC's newly restructured "mandatory hearing" process now moves the uncontested hearing to the *start* of review ("about 30 days after an application is docketed") rather than the end, which — contrary to speeding final approval — signals that satisfying this procedural step for Fermi America (whose third docketing part is still pending) is itself a preliminary milestone still ahead, not equivalent to license issuance. https://www.ans.org/news/2026-06-10/article-8110/nrc-making-changes-to-mandatory-hearings-timeline/ - [2025-10-01 to 2025-11-12] A 43-day federal government shutdown occurred from October 1 to November 12, 2025, during which NRC guidance mandated that "licensing, certification, and permit activities—including prelicensing activities and environmental reviews" be delayed or discontinued — directly slowing the Fermi America and Oklo review clocks in the same fiscal year this market covers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_federal_government_shutdown - [2026-08-08] A further FY2027 funding cliff was only narrowly averted: the Senate-passed CR (H.R. 6500) funds the government merely "through December 11, 2026," with government-funding watchers "widely expect[ing] December to bring another round of tense negotiations" — creating a live risk of another shutdown-driven pause in NRC licensing activity in exactly the final weeks before the market's December 31, 2026 deadline. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2026-06-26] Even NRC's own officials tout efficiency gains only for smaller/simpler licensing actions, not COLs: an NRC Chief Data Officer said AI had cut one licensing review type "from four years... down to 18 months," completed "in nine months" — but this claimed acceleration applies to a narrower category of licensing action, not the large multi-part, multi-year COL/EIS process that Fermi America is still in its earliest acceptance phase of. https://www.govexec.com/technology/2026/06/ai-has-helped-slash-nuclear-licensing-review-times-nrc-official-says/414447/ - [2026-08-20/09-22] The two nearest-term NRC decisions in the pipeline — Long Mott (X-energy Xe-100, mandatory hearing held September 22, 2026) and TVA's Clinch River (BWRX-300, decision expected around December 2026) — are both construction-permit actions under 10 CFR Part 50, a licensing pathway distinct from a combined license; neither, even if approved on schedule, would satisfy the market's specific "combined license" resolution wording. - [2026-03-30/04-29] The NRC's new optional "Part 53" licensing rule took effect April 29, 2026, but as of the most recent search no applicant has filed, let alone been approved, under this pathway for a COL, meaning it offers no near-term route to a 2026 approval. BOTTOM LINE: Every actual near-term NRC decision point in 2026 (Long Mott, Clinch River) is a construction permit, not a combined license, while the sole live large-reactor COL effort (Fermi America) remains stuck in the earliest docketing/acceptance phase with a statutory two-year post-docketing floor for hearings alone, and Oklo's only COL application remains formally denied without prejudice per the NRC's own unmodified webpage; compounding this, a 43-day shutdown already delayed FY2026 licensing work and a fresh funding cliff on December 11, 2026 threatens to pause NRC operations again right before the market's deadline — all pointing strongly toward NO. NOT FOUND: No NRC Commission vote or final-decision date scheduled in 2026 for any combined license; no evidence Oklo has resubmitted a new Aurora COL application since the 2022 denial; no confirmation of whether the December 11, 2026 funding deadline will be resolved without a lapse.