Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

- [2026-05-28] Republican Gov. Phil Scott officially filed to seek a sixth two-year term, ending months of speculation about his re-election plans. Vermont's Republican governor ended months of speculation Thursday when he filed paperwork to run for reelection, announcing he'd seek a sixth term. (https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-05-28/gov-phil-scott-to-run-for-a-6th-term) - [2026-08-11] Vermont held its primary; Republican incumbent Phil Scott was seeking a sixth two-year term and is being challenged by Democratic economist Amanda Janoo, with primary elections held on August 11, 2026. Scott's primary was uncontested. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election) - [2026-08-12] Democrat Amanda Janoo won her party's primary, edging out Aly Richards, setting up a general-election matchup against Scott, as confirmed by WCAX's related coverage. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/08/12/janoo-wins-democratic-primary-will-face-gov-scott-november-ballot/) - [2025-01-23 / updated through 2026] The Cook Political Report continues to rate the race "Solid R," noting after a massive 52-point victory in 2024, Republican Gov. Phil Scott should easily win another two-year term in 2026. This rating was last confirmed current as of its Jan 23, 2025 posting and the race page's PVI update dated Apr 27, 2026. (https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479611) - [2026-09-17] WCAX profile of the race notes Republican Gov. Phil Scott faces a challenge from Democrat Amanda Janoo as he seeks a historic sixth term, and that Scott hails from Barre and was a longtime business owner ; the piece states Scott has won each prior election by wider margins but now faces what observers call his fiercest challenge in years, with Scott himself emphasizing down-ballot legislative races over his own re-election. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/17/campaign-countdown-candidates-vermont-governor/) - [2026-09-24] A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center "Green Mountain State Poll" (fielded Sept. 17–21, n=835, MOE 3.3 pts) found "if the election were held on Thursday, Amanda Janoo would be the winner. The Democrat gets support from 49% of those surveyed. The five-time incumbent Republican gets 43%." (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] The same poll shows Scott's overall approval has fallen sharply; per pollster Sean McKinley, cited in the article, Scott's approval "has slipped from 67% at the end of the pandemic to 47% now," and his approval among Democrats is now "the lowest since we've been keeping track." (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] Middlebury College political scientist Matt Dickinson, quoted in the same article, said the race is competitive: "It's a fluid race certainly... But if I'm Phil Scott, I should be worried." Analysts attribute Janoo's strength partly to Democratic voters mobilizing against Trump-administration policies and lingering affordability concerns in Vermont. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] The same poll shows the down-ballot Republican, Lt. Gov. John Rodgers, trailing Democrat Molly Gray 40%-54%, suggesting a broader Democratic swing this cycle beyond just the governor's race. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] Scott's campaign disputed the poll's methodology, arguing Democrats were over-sampled, and cautioned it is a single snapshot in time rather than a trend. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [~2026-09-17] Scott's campaign has been running TV ads focused on down-ballot legislative races rather than his own re-election, saying "It's all about the legislative candidates. Without that, we'll go back to a supermajority, and I'll be ineffective." (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/17/campaign-countdown-candidates-vermont-governor/) - [2026-09-17] Ballots for the November 3 general election were slated to begin going out to Vermont voters "next week" (i.e., week of Sept. 21), per WCAX, meaning early voting is already underway or imminent as of question's current date. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/17/campaign-countdown-candidates-vermont-governor/) BOTTOM LINE: Phil Scott remains the Republican nominee and had been considered a heavy favorite (Cook rates the race "Solid R" based on his 2024 landslide), but a newly released Sept. 24, 2026 UNH poll shows him trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo 43%-49% with eroding approval, injecting real uncertainty into a race previously assumed to be a lock; this is the single most important recent development and suggests the outcome is now genuinely contested rather than a foregone GOP win. NOT FOUND: No additional independent polls beyond the single UNH Survey Center poll were located to corroborate or contradict the Sept. 24 result; no updated Cook Political Report rating post-dating the poll (page shows "Solid R" without a rating-change date after the poll's release) was found; no statement yet from AP/Fox/NBC race calls (election is Nov. 3, 2026, so none expected yet).

- [2026-08-11] Reference class: incumbent Vermont governors almost never lose. Hoff's 1962 victory marked the first time Republicans had lost the governorship since the 1850s and, as of recent history, is the last time an incumbent governor of Vermont was defeated for re-election. That is a base rate of roughly one incumbent defeat in over 60 years / ~30 election cycles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F._Ray_Keyser_Jr. - [2026-08-12] Phil Scott's own recent track record shows an accelerating trend, not a fading one: his 2024 win was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality , after winning 70.9% in 2022 and 73.4% in 2024. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-05-28] Scott filed for a sixth term in May 2026; observers view the seat as very safe for him: Democrats will have an uphill battle ahead of them... None of the three Democrats to challenge Scott in that time garnered more than 30% of the general election vote. His most recent campaign in 2024 handed him his widest margin of victory ever, with 73% of the tally. https://vtdigger.org/2026/05/28/gov-phil-scott-is-running-for-reelection/ - [2026-05-28] Scott's personal popularity remains an outlier nationally: Scott remains deeply popular across Vermont. As of February, he continued his long-running streak of polling as the most popular governor in the country, with a 74% approval rating, according to the firm Morning Consult. https://vtdigger.org/2026/05/28/gov-phil-scott-is-running-for-reelection/ - [2026-09-11] Expert forecaster consensus is unanimous and lopsided. Ratings compiled on Wikipedia's election page show: Inside Elections "Solid R" (Aug 28, 2025), Race to the WH "Safe R" (June 19, 2026), RealClearPolitics "Solid R" (June 5, 2026), Sabato's Crystal Ball "Safe R" (May 28, 2026), Cook Political Report "Solid R" (Sept 11, 2025). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-08-28] Cook Political Report's own summary states plainly: After a massive 52-point victory in 2024, Republican Gov. Phil Scott should easily win another two-year term in 2026. https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479611 - [2026-07-20] Hypothetical general-election polling (University of New Hampshire) shows Scott dominating potential Democratic matchups, e.g. a poll fielded July 15–20, 2026 had Scott at 52% against a generic/named opponent well behind, and another matchup in the same wave showed him at 44% to 33% against a named Democrat with a large undecided share, consistent with a wide lead in every published survey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-08-11] Scott's primary was uncontested, underscoring lack of intra-party threat: Republican Gov. Phil Scott is seeking a sixth two-year term... This race is uncontested. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/vermont-governor-results - [2026-05-14] Betting-market context: even before the primary, Polymarket's general-election line for the race sat far in Republicans' favor, e.g. a market recorded Phil Scott is priced at a 95% chance to win the Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11...The Republican line sits at 78% to win the November general election , and that Republican share has since risen; a separate Polymarket page shows the "Republican" outcome at 100% (illiquid, thin-volume market) versus "Democrat" at 0%. https://www.compassvermont.com/p/right-or-wrong-polymarket-is-betting ; https://polymarket.com/event/vermont-governor-election-winner - [2026-01-01] Structural/partisan-lean note for outside view: this is a rare case where the office is held by the "wrong" party relative to the state's overall lean. This is one of two governorships Republicans are defending in states Kamala Harris (D) won in 2024: New Hampshire and Vermont. Yet the base rate for an incumbent losing this particular seat is still extremely low given Scott's personal brand. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2026 - [2026-01-01] Long-run historical pattern of divided outcomes: Vermont has repeatedly elected popular moderate Republican governors even while trending Democratic downballot, e.g. Snelling, Douglas, and now Scott — Ballotpedia notes Vermont has a divided government where neither party holds a trifecta. The Republican Party controls the office of governor, while the Democratic Party controls both chambers of the state legislature. This "split-ticket" pattern has been the norm for a decade, reinforcing that gubernatorial races run separately from generic partisan lean. https://ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_Vermont BOTTOM LINE: Every dimension of the outside view — the 60+ year streak of no incumbent Vermont governor losing re-election, Scott's escalating landslide margins (70.9% in 2022, 73.4% in 2024), unanimous "Solid/Safe R" ratings from five major forecasters, an uncontested primary, and lopsided betting-market pricing (78–100% Republican) — points overwhelmingly toward a Republican win in 2026. NOT FOUND: A specific, recent (last 30 days) Polymarket price history/liquidity chart for the general-election "Republican vs Democrat" market with exact current probability and volume was not directly fetched (only secondary reporting from compassvermont.com and a cached Polymarket page); no data found suggesting Scott is not the Republican nominee or that any competitive polling exists showing a close race.

- [2026-09-24] The Green Mountain State Poll's crosstabs show Janoo winning a majority of Democrats while Scott wins a majority of independents and almost all Republicans , meaning Janoo's lead is being built by unifying her own base rather than needing to peel off many Scott voters — a lower bar for a Democratic win than a genuine crossover collapse. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/polls-show-scott-statistical-tie-232744578.html) - [2026-09-24] Even pollsters caution the result is close enough to be a coin flip statistically: "Janoo's advantage falls within the poll's margin of error and is therefore considered a statistical tie." This is the first time in Scott's tenure such a caveat has applied. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/polls-show-scott-statistical-tie-232744578.html) - [2026-09-24] The same polling wave shows an even larger Democratic lead down-ballot: "The UNH poll also shows Molly Gray leading incumbent John Rodgers by a much larger margin, 54 to 35 percent, in the lieutenant governor's race." A double-digit-plus Democratic swing in the companion statewide race is evidence of a genuine, not isolated, shift in the Vermont electorate this cycle. (https://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/politics/new-polls-show-scott-in-statistical-tie-with-janoo-pappas-sununu-also-tied/) - [2026-09-16] Forecaster movement corroborates the tightening: Race to the WH downgraded the race from "Safe R" to "Likely R" on Sept. 16, 2026, and Silver Bulletin already had it at "Likely R" as of Aug. 25 — both softer than the "Solid R" calls from Cook, Inside Elections, RCP, and Fox News that predate the poll surge. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election) - [2026-09-08] Janoo has out-fundraised Scott by more than 2-to-1 this cycle — Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo has raised more than twice as much money as Republican incumbent Phil Scott so far this campaign... First-time statewide Democratic candidate Amanda Janoo outraised Republican Gov. Phil Scott by a more than two-to-one margin so far this campaign. A University of Vermont political scientist called it a sign of "more enthusiasm for her gubernatorial campaign than Democrats have had in several years." (https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap) - [2026-09-03] Analysts attribute Scott's comparatively weak fundraising to complacency: The relatively low fundraising numbers for both candidates says a lot, according to political analysts. Scott has not turned on the fundraising spigot and does not have a sense of urgency in the race against Janoo. A campaign that under-invests in its own paid media in the closing weeks is more vulnerable to a late polling shift becoming a real vote shift. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/03/janoo-outraises-scott-race-vermont-governor/) - [2026-09-24] Prediction markets have already begun repricing risk consistent with a competitive contest rather than a lock: on Polymarket's companion "Margin of Victory" market, the single largest outcome bucket is "Republican 0-5%" at 28% — i.e., traders' modal expectation is now a single-digit Scott win, not a landslide, which is the kind of environment where late momentum could flip the winner. (https://polymarket.com/event/vermont-governor-margin-of-victory-2026/will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-vermont-gubernatorial-election) - [2026-09-24] A Middlebury College political scientist tied the shift to a concrete policy failure rather than generic anti-incumbent mood: "Republicans made inroads in the last election by addressing affordability. It's not clear they've followed through on that. And they may be paying a price for that." (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] Pollsters note a persuasion opportunity still open for Janoo: "The poll shows the percentage of people who don't know Janoo is higher than the number of undecided voters." As name recognition catches up to her favorable early message, her ceiling could rise further before Nov. 3. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/) - [2026-09-24] Party mobilization signals point to institutional consolidation behind Janoo despite her insurgent primary win: Janoo is scheduled to appear at multiple town and county Democratic events and has the backing of party leaders, who showed up at a unity rally the day after the primary. "Vermont Democrats are excited about Amanda's candidacy and some of the new and bold ideas she's running on and bringing to this election," said Vermont Democratic Party Chair Lachlan Francis. (https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/03/janoo-outraises-scott-race-vermont-governor/) - [2026-09-24] Analysts flag that turnout dynamics could favor Democrats further: pollsters told WCAX "a more competitive race could help drive voter turnout," which would matter given Democrats' large registration/enrollment edge in a state Harris carried by a double-digit margin. BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to a Republican loss runs through the Sept. 24 UNH poll becoming a real trend rather than an outlier — reinforced by a simultaneous double-digit Democratic lead in the lieutenant governor's race, Janoo's 2-to-1 fundraising edge and grassroots enthusiasm, a complacent/under-funded Scott campaign, and forecaster downgrades from "Safe/Solid R" to "Likely R"; if affordability-driven anti-incumbent sentiment holds and Janoo converts her financial and enthusiasm edge into turnout among Vermont's large Democratic base, the race could flip narrowly (consistent with prediction markets now pricing single-digit margins as most likely). NOT FOUND: No second independent poll (beyond the single UNH/Green Mountain State survey) confirming the Janoo lead; no post-Sept.-24 movement yet visible in Cook/Sabato ratings pages; no data on absentee/early ballot returns by party that would indicate whether the poll shift is already showing up in actual votes cast.

- [2026-09-25] The Sept. 17–21 UNH "Green Mountain State Poll" (n=835 likely voters, MOE ±3.4) puts Democrat Amanda Janoo ahead of Gov. Scott 49%–43%, and the pollster's own release states "For Scott to be able to survive, he certainly has a bit of a hill to climb," said Sean McKinley, University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center project director. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-25] The same poll shows a collapse in Scott's crossover appeal that had defined his prior landslides: He wins 89 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents, but among Democrats, only 20 percent back him, while 73 percent support Janoo. That is a sharp reversal from the ticket-splitting pattern that delivered his 2022/2024 landslides. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-25] Trend data inside the same tracking series shows the race tightening fast, not slowly: earlier rounds of the same poll showed Scott comfortably ahead. In June, he led Janoo 42 percent to 27 percent, with 26 percent undecided. In July, he led 44 percent to 33 percent. The primary outcome alone appears to have erased Scott's lead within about two months, per the same source's analysis of the shift. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-25] A live, salient national/local issue is cutting against Scott: the poll was fielded right after a US-Canada trade breakdown, and Seventy-one percent of Vermonters disapprove of how Trump has handled the talks, while 77 percent say they are concerned about the impact on the state. Scott's distance from Trump has not insulated him because voters appear to be punishing the national GOP brand rather than Scott personally. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-08-22] The underlying economic shock is concrete and dated: on Aug. 22, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, prompting reciprocal tariffs from the Canadian government and leaving Vermont caught in the crossfire of a trade war with its largest trading partner, hitting dairy, tourism, and construction sectors just as ballots go out. (https://www.middleburycampus.com/article/2026/09/vermont-businesses-face-trade-war-with-canada) - [2026-09-08] Fundraising has flipped in Janoo's favor for the first time this cycle: Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo has raised more than twice as much money as Republican incumbent Phil Scott so far this campaign, despite her pledge not to accept corporate contributions. A University of Vermont political scientist called it a sign of "more enthusiasm for her gubernatorial campaign than Democrats have had in several years." (https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap) - [2026-09-25] The down-ballot environment corroborates a genuine partisan wave rather than an isolated poll blip: in the same survey, the same pattern shows up further down the ballot. Former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray, a Democrat, leads Republican Lieutenant Governor John Rodgers 54 percent to 35 percent. Democratic Representative Becca Balint leads Republican Gerald Malloy 66 percent to 30 percent for the state's at-large House seat. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-25] National headwinds for the GOP reinforce the local numbers: an Emerson College national poll conducted September 21-22 found Democrats leading Republicans 53 percent to 42 percent on the generic congressional ballot, and separately an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats ahead 53 percent to 41 percent, with Trump's approval at 39 percent and his disapproval at 53 percent. A blue-wave midterm environment could swamp Scott's personal brand advantage. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-25] Scott's own approval has cratered specifically among Democrats and independents even as it firms among his base, per Newsweek's read of the same poll: Scott's approval among Republicans has increased to 77 percent, up from 60 percent in July to its highest level. Among Democrats, however, his approval has dropped to 35 percent, the lowest recorded level. That base-consolidation-with-crossover-collapse pattern is exactly what would sink an incumbent who has relied on Democratic and independent votes to win. (https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430) - [2026-09-08] Money disadvantage constrains Scott's ability to respond: even with a cash lead, Scott's war chest is thin relative to ad costs, and Janoo's fundraising edge undercuts the "financial mismatch favors incumbent" argument that normally reinforces status-quo bets. (https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap) - [2026-09-26] The Scott campaign's rebuttal — that the UNH poll oversampled Democrats — is itself weakened by the pollster's track record cited by the campaign's own critique: Seven Days reports the campaign manager noted the UNH survey center missed the mark in Vermont's two previous gubernatorial races. In 2022, for example, it predicted the governor would win by a 17 percent margin, Degree said. But Scott ultimately bested Democrat Brenda Siegel by 47 percent. However, both historical misses ran in the direction of underestimating Scott, meaning this particular methodological critique argues that reality could be even more favorable to Scott than the poll shows — it does not on its own explain away the size and speed of the swing measured this cycle. (https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-janoo-with-narrow-lead-over-incumbent-gov-scott/) BOTTOM LINE: A single, methodologically disputed but detailed and recent (Sept. 17–21) poll shows Janoo leading Scott 49%–43%, driven by a collapse in Scott's crossover support among Democrats/independents amid a Trump-Canada tariff shock and a broader Democratic national wave reflected down-ballot in Vermont — giving the NO case (Republican does not win) real, dated evidence beyond mere hypotheticals, even though it still runs against decades of incumbent-governor precedent and unanimous "Solid/Safe R" institutional ratings. NOT FOUND: No second independent poll corroborating the UNH result was located; no updated Cook/Sabato/Silver Bulletin rating change following the Sept. 24 poll was found (Newsweek's Sept. 25 piece still lists Cook as "Solid Republican" and Sabato/Silver/Race to the WH as "Likely Republican"); no data on early/absentee ballot return rates by party for 2026 was found to confirm whether the Democratic enthusiasm shown in fundraising and polling is translating into actual votes already cast.