Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the target federal funds range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% (a 12-0 vote), its first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation: "The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate." Source: federalreserve.gov press release. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's implementation note confirms the operative directive: "Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent." This is the current, prevailing rate level heading into October. Source: federalreserve.gov. - [2026-09-16] The updated Summary of Economic Projections ("dot plot") showed "16 of 18 members projecting at least one more rate hike this year" , with four expecting two more hikes. Source: schwab.com. - [2026-09-16] The September SEP median year-end 2026 rate rose to roughly 4.1% (implying one more 25bp hike), up from 3.8% in the June SEP; "A median year-end projection of 4.1% is the conventional SEP shorthand for a midpoint consistent with a 4.00%–4.25% range—i.e., one additional 25 bp step... not a guaranteed hold." Source: noradarealestate.com. - [2026-09-16] Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high and the hike would "support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability." Source: CNBC. - [2026-09-16/17] The Board separately raised the interest on reserve balances to 3.90% and the primary credit rate to 4.0%, effective September 17, 2026, confirming the new operative range. Source: federalreserve.gov. - [2026-09-18] Fed's Schmid publicly supported a further rate hike as the inflation trend runs above 3%, per news wire summary cited by Phemex/PANews. Source: phemex.com. - [2026-09-20] Fed's Kashkari commented that strong investment demand is pushing interest rates higher, per the same tracker's news digest. Source: phemex.com. - [2026-09-21] Fed's Goolsbee said he would be open to rate cuts only "with solid evidence of inflation returning to 2%," signaling some internal caution against further tightening. Source: phemex.com. - [2026-09-23] The CME FedWatch Tool showed a "54.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, compared to a 45.8% chance of holding rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%" , with year-end (December) odds of no change at only 10.8%. Source: phemex.com (via CME FedWatch/PANews). - [2026-09-24] Fed's Williams said a year-end rate hike is "reasonable" amid strong AI-driven demand, per Phemex news digest, reinforcing hawkish tilt. Source: phemex.com. - [2026-09-24] Countervailing view: Citigroup forecast the Fed to hold rates in both October and December, resuming cuts only in June 2027, while Goldman Sachs Asset Management said the Fed is unlikely to enter a sustained rate-hike cycle — indicating genuine disagreement among forecasters about the October outcome. Source: phemex.com news index. BOTTOM LINE: As of September 25, 2026, the Fed just hiked rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and its own dot plot points to a strong majority favoring at least one more 25bp hike before year-end; market-implied odds (CME FedWatch, Sep 23) put the October meeting close to a coin-flip, tilted slightly toward another hike (~54%) over a hold (~46%), though some sell-side desks (e.g., Citigroup) still expect a hold in October. This makes "no change" at the October meeting a near-toss-up leaning slightly against it, not a settled outcome. NOT FOUND: No post-September-16 FOMC member has yet given a definitive, on-record commitment specifically to the October decision (no confirmed "no change" or "hike" guarantee); no verbatim October pre-meeting blackout-period statement was available since the blackout period had not yet begun as of the last search date.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the target federal funds range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% by a 12–0 vote, its first rate increase since 2023, ending a run of five consecutive "hold" meetings that had kept the range at 3.50%–3.75%. The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. - [2026-07-29] The prior (July) meeting had been a hold: the Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, in line with expectations, despite markets assigning roughly a one-in-three probability to a rate hike, with three FOMC members dissenting for a rate hike. This shows the base rate of "no change" outcomes had been very high (5 of the prior meetings) until the regime shifted to hiking in September. - [2026-09-16] Fed officials' own dot plot signals further tightening is more likely than a pause: at this week's meeting, 2027 was a fairly close call, with eight officials pointing to another hike, six seeing the funds rate holding steady and four envisioning cuts. - [2026-09-16] Market pricing at the September meeting already looked past a further hike this year: markets currently price in one more 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026, followed by continuing rate hikes extending into 2027. - [2026-09-25] Current CME FedWatch-derived probability for the October 27–28, 2026 meeting: according to CME Fedwatch Tool as of 24 Sep 2026, there is a 73.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 bps in the upcoming meeting. A same-day independent aggregator (growbeansprout, sourced from CME FedWatch) put the probability slightly higher, at 75.8% as of 25 Sep 2026, for a 25bp hike, implying roughly a 24-26% probability of "no change." - [2026-09-25] A separate independent model tracking CME data similarly found Fed: 54% odds of a rate hike at the meeting on October 28, 2026 in an earlier snapshot (dated ~3 weeks prior to current pull), though this figure is now stale relative to the ~73-76% cited by CME-sourced trackers as of Sep 24-25; it illustrates how quickly hike odds have risen as data has come in hawkish. - [2026-09-24] Broader market commentary corroborates rising hike expectations, not stability: "Dollar rises to nearly two-month high on firmer Fed rate hike bets, rout in bonds" — the U.S. dollar on Wednesday strengthened to a nearly two-month high, as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations were boosted by hot U.S. data. - [2026-08-31] Just before the September meeting, hike odds had already surged: Fed Chair Warsh's comments increased market expectations for a possible rate hike, with the implied probability rising above 50% from around 36% before the speech, according to the cited federal funds futures snapshot. - [2026-09-16] Post-meeting analysis notes the committee explicitly framed the hike as inflation-fighting and forward-looking, reducing the likelihood analysts assign to an immediate pause: "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability." - [Historical/structural] Since the Fed formalized meeting-based policy changes in 1994, the vast majority of target-rate changes occur at regularly scheduled meetings rather than between them, and typical tightening/easing cycles proceed in a series of consecutive same-direction moves once started, rather than reverting to "no change" immediately after the first move — consistent with the July→September shift from "hold" to "hike" preceding a further move rather than an immediate pause. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class here is not stable — the Fed just ended a long streak of "no change" holds (five straight meetings) with a hike in September 2026, and both the Fed's own dot plot and market-implied (CME FedWatch) odds as of 24-25 Sep 2026 place roughly 73-76% probability on another 25bp hike (not "no change") in October, making a "no change" resolution the minority-probability outcome under current market pricing, though not negligible (~24-26%). NOT FOUND: An official, single authoritative CME FedWatch percentage snapshot fetched directly from cmegroup.com (the primary source page did not return live numeric data in the fetch); reliance was placed on secondary aggregators (growbeansprout, centralbank.watch, macromicro) that cite CME FedWatch as their source. Also could not find a long-run statistical tally (e.g., "% of all FOMC meetings since 2015 resulting in no change") from a single primary dataset within the search budget.

- [2026-09-24] Citigroup, a "longstanding Fed dove," explicitly forecasts the Fed will pause in October "to assess the impact of a prior 25 basis point rate hike while awaiting further economic data," with December also expected to be a hold before cuts resume in June 2027. Source: https://phemex.com/news/article/citigroup-forecasts-fed-to-hold-rates-in-october-and-december-resume-cuts-in-june-2027-97713 - [2026-09-24] Goldman Sachs Asset Management separately stated it does not expect the Federal Reserve to enter a sustained rate-hike cycle, citing fading tariff and energy-related price pressures, an economy showing little sign of overheating, and anchored inflation expectations — a structural argument for pausing rather than continuing to hike in October. Source: https://phemex.com/news/article/goldman-sachs-asset-management-fed-unlikely-to-enter-sustained-ratehike-cycle-97710 - [2026-09-21] Fed Governor Goolsbee's public caution (already flagged by colleagues) is reinforced by an earlier, more detailed hawkish-to-neutral evolution: as recently as March 2026 he was still framing any policy shift as conditional on "tangible inflation progress," showing the FOMC's most dovish/centrist voices remain data-dependent rather than committed to a second consecutive hike. Source: https://www.mexc.com/news/979170 - [2026-09-23] Market pricing is genuinely split and moving day-to-day rather than settled toward a hike: one CME FedWatch-based tracker showed 54.2% odds of a hike vs. 45.8% odds of a hold for October, only narrowly favoring a hike, not a landslide. Source: https://phemex.com/news/article/cme-fedwatch-542-probability-of-rate-hike-at-october-meeting-97512 - [2026-08-12] Historical pattern earlier in 2026 shows the Fed has repeatedly opted to hold when data allowed: renewed concerns about the labor market following a net job loss in July combined with gyrations in the energy sector took the immediacy out of a rate increase, and at the July meeting the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold , illustrating the Committee's demonstrated willingness to pause even amid hawkish pressure when labor data softens. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html - [2026-09-16 SEP mechanics] The dot plot's median path implies only one more hike this year at most, and the Goldman Sachs Asset Management note (Sep 24) points out that despite the Fed's dot plot indicating one more hike this year, money market pricing currently reflects expectations for a cumulative 37 basis points of hikes across the central bank's two remaining meetings in 2026 — meaning markets already price a probability-weighted outcome consistent with skipping one of the two remaining meetings (October or December), not hiking at both. - [2026-09-16, contextual] The September hike itself was framed by Chair Warsh as inflation-focused (already cited by colleagues), but the accompanying SEP showed a widening internal split for 2027, with a meaningful bloc of officials (per Schwab's SEP breakdown) not aligned on further tightening beyond the near term, giving hold advocates rhetorical cover to argue "one and done" for now. Source: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-14 scheduled] The September CPI report — the last major inflation data point before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting — is due October 14, 2026, per BLS's official release calendar; a cooler-than-expected print would materially bolster the hold case cited by Citigroup and Goldman. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09 ongoing] Analysts note the Fed's own July pattern (hold despite three hawkish dissents) and August's Goldman "very unlikely to hike" call show that within a single quarter, sentiment swung from hold-expected to hike-executed and could swing back; Goldman's Aug 17 call that a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting has become "very unlikely" due to softer retail sales data, a slowing labor market, and cooling inflation prints proved wrong for September but underscores how quickly incoming data (not yet locked in for October) can flip the outcome toward a hold. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/odds-fed-rate-hike-fall-083935313.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for "No change" in October rests on two concrete, named sell-side calls (Citigroup and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, both dated Sep 24, 2026) explicitly forecasting a pause to let the September hike work through the economy, combined with money-market pricing that — despite a slight hike-lean (~54%) — implies only ~37bps of cumulative tightening across two remaining meetings, consistent with skipping one of them; a cooler-than-expected September CPI report (due Oct 14) is the single most likely trigger that could tip the October decision to a hold. NOT FOUND: No FOMC member has issued an on-record commitment specifically to hold in October; no post-blackout-period (blackout typically begins ~2 weeks before the meeting) statements were available as of Sep 25, 2026.

**Strongest evidence-backed case for "No change" (Hold) at the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting** - [2026-09-25] Even at peak hawkish pricing, roughly a third of the market disagrees with the hike consensus: Kalshi-derived odds for the October meeting show Kalshi implies hold 34%, 25bps cut 0%, 25bps hike 63%, 50bps cut 1%, 50bps hike 2% as of Sept 24, meaning "no change" remains a live, non-trivial outcome rather than a fringe case. - [2026-09-24] Cross-venue divergence undercuts the certainty of a hike: on the "hold" outcome specifically, Kalshi implies hold 35.5%, Polymarket implies hold 45.5%, and futures imply hold 32% , a 13.5-point spread — Polymarket's own book (the resolution venue) is pricing hold meaningfully higher than futures-derived CME odds, which is the most relevant discrepancy for this specific market. - [2026-06-17] The Fed has a demonstrated pattern this cycle of disappointing hawkish market pricing: markets had priced meaningful hike odds into the June and July meetings, yet the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, extending a holding pattern in place since December 2025 in June, and the July meeting similarly ended in a hold despite three dissents favoring a hike (per colleagues' base-rate research) — showing the committee has repeatedly chosen inertia even when futures markets leaned toward action. - [2026-08-07] Hike odds have proven highly volatile and data-dependent within a single cycle: after a weak July jobs report, CME's FedWatch tool still sees a 55% chance of a hike in October... odds that the Fed will maintain rates are now at 60% , up sharply from 45% and one-in-three just days earlier — demonstrating that a single soft data print (a disappointing NFP, cooler CPI, or downside GDP surprise before Oct 28) could similarly flip odds back toward "hold." - [2026-09-16] The September hike was explicitly framed by Chair Warsh as a data-driven, not mechanically pre-committed, action, and Warsh has resisted forward guidance; the July press conference (per colleague research) saw Warsh explicitly reject characterizing Fed actions as "pause" or "hike" commitments, reserving optionality — meaning no institutional or verbal commitment locks in an October move. - [2026-09-24] The Fed's own December-dated SEP "dot plot" market (Kalshi's KXDOTPLOT) is currently too thin and wide to resolve a clear median, with the ladder showing "no single number the book actually supports" — a structural sign that even sophisticated traders see high uncertainty about the Fed's near-term path, not a settled hike trajectory. - [2026-09-04] A major sell-side dove, Citigroup, has already been forced to repeatedly delay its rate-path calls this cycle (from September, to October, to now June 2027 per Sept 4 Reuters reporting), illustrating that professional forecasters have been serially wrong in both directions — a caution against over-relying on the current ~62-65% hike consensus holding through the Oct 27-28 meeting. - [2026-09-23] Even the hawkish CNBC/CME print from Sept 23 that put hike odds at 73% was driven by a single event (Fed Governor Barr's comments and a hot inflation reading), i.e., the odds of a rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets again Oct. 27-28 jumped to 73%, according to the CME's FedWatch — a jump-on-a-headline dynamic that is inherently reversible by the next data print (Core PCE due Sept 28, then October CPI/jobs reports before the meeting). - [2026-09-26 forward] Historically, first-hike-after-pause cycles (e.g., 2023's "skip" debates, cited in older Kashkari/Bostic remarks) show FOMC officials frequently favor "skipping" a meeting to gather more information immediately after resuming a tightening or easing move, rather than moving in two consecutive meetings — a structural argument that October could be used as an information-gathering pause after September's first hike in over two years. - [Resolution mechanics] The question's own fallback clause states that if no FOMC statement is issued by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to "No change" — a technical backstop that favors NO in any scenario involving an unexpected delay, though no such delay is currently anticipated since the FY2027 government funding CR signed September 2, 2026 keeps agencies funded through December 11, 2026, removing the shutdown-driven data-blackout risk that clouded the analogous October 2025 meeting. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on real, non-trivial market pricing (Kalshi ~34-35% hold, Polymarket ~45.5% hold), a demonstrated Fed pattern this cycle of disappointing hawkish pricing (June and July holds despite dissents/pricing), high sensitivity of odds to single data prints, and the structural tendency to "skip" a meeting after resuming a hiking cycle — meaning a hold is a well-supported minority scenario, not a remote tail risk, even though current odds (as of Sept 24-25) lean toward a hike. NOT FOUND: No verbatim October-specific commitment from any FOMC voter advocating a hold at the October meeting (post-Sept-16); no confirmed CME FedWatch primary-source snapshot (site fetch blocked) beyond the CNBC-reported 73% figure; no evidence of a new government shutdown or data blackout affecting the October 2026 meeting given the September 2, 2026 CR.