Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

- [2026-08-19] Trump said Wednesday he intends to meet later this year with Kim Jong Un, "Yeah, I will," when asked whether he planned in-person talks. It's not clear how concrete Trump's plans are for a fourth summit with Kim. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-19] Trump was reportedly pushing his aides to explore a possible meeting as early as fall 2026, per WSJ, discussed during a planned Asia trip potentially in November when leaders gather in Shenzhen for APEC; no formal preparations for a summit have begun. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10844783 - [2026-08-18] Trump said Kim Jong Un has responded to his recent outreach, describing the exchange as "very positive" without providing further detail. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/18/trump-says-n-koreas-kim-has-responded-to-his-request-for-a-conversation - [2026-08-21] Trump's overtures drew a frosty response from Pyongyang, suggesting it will set tough conditions to hold such a meeting even if the two men have an "excellent" relationship. Kim Yo Jong dismissed the scale-back of joint exercises and denied that Trump and Kim had had any contact, though she described the personal relationship as "excellent." https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-20/analysis-trump-wants-a-new-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-north-korea-says-not-so-fast - [2026-08-19] A White House official said Trump and Kim would meet "at an appropriate time," while no formal planning for a Trump-Kim meeting is currently underway. https://www.anews.com.tr/diplomacy/2026/08/19/trump-pushes-for-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-this-year - [2026-02-26] Kim Jong Un said North Korea could "completely destroy" South Korea if it feels threatened, labeling South Korea the "most hostile enemy" while ruling out renewed talks; "South Korea's complete collapse cannot be ruled out." https://www.foxnews.com/world/kim-jong-un-calls-south-korea-most-hostile-enemy-says-north-could-completely-destroy.print - [2026-01-08] Lee Jae-myung and Trump have affirmed their desire to revive dialogue with North Korea, yet Kim has made clear he would refuse to negotiate unless the US abandons its "obsession with denuclearization." https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/north-korea-2026-will-us-and-south-korea-push-talks-succeed - [2026-09-23] Lee Jae Myung and Trump agreed to work closely to help restart dialogue with North Korea, with Trump again expressing his willingness to engage with Kim Jong Un; the two leaders said they would be in close communication as they work to open talks with Pyongyang, and Lee and Trump met for about 30 minutes in New York on Tuesday evening. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/south-korea-s-president-urges-trump-kim-talks-to-end-stalemate - [2026-09-16] If Kim Jong Un meets Trump later this year, one of the most consequential decisions may be who accompanies him—especially his daughter Kim Ju Ae, who is seen as a probable successor. https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/16/north-korea-united-states-trump-kim-meeting-heir-succession/ - [~2026-09-04] Trump has once again extended his hand; Kim has not taken it, but he has not rejected it either — no summit has been confirmed, yet the door has not fully closed. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4706768/trump-kim-jong-un-summit-2026-nuclear-talks/ - [2026-11-18/19 scheduled] APEC China 2026 will conclude with the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in November 2026, hosted mainly in Shenzhen , the event floated as the likeliest venue for a possible Trump-Kim encounter, though no formal plans exist as of late September 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026 - [2026-08-19] A potential meeting in Shenzhen would constitute the first contact Trump will have had with the North Korean leader since returning to office. https://kantan.news/news/signal-of-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-and-nuclear-statement-from-us-president-trump BOTTOM LINE: As of Sept. 23, 2026, no meeting has occurred and none is formally scheduled; Trump has repeatedly voiced intent to meet Kim in 2026 (with APEC in Shenzhen, Nov 18-19, cited as a likely opportunity), and Seoul is actively pushing to broker talks, but North Korea has given only mixed/ambivalent signals (denying contact via Kim Yo Jong, escalating rhetoric toward South Korea, and Kim demanding the US drop denuclearization as precondition), leaving the outcome genuinely uncertain with about three months left before the trading close. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, venue, or formal announcement of a Trump-Kim meeting; no direct recent statement from Kim Jong Un himself (rather than his sister or state media) confirming or scheduling a 2026 meeting; no news in the last 7 days beyond the Sept. 23 Lee-Trump New York meeting readout.

- [2018-06-12] First-ever sitting US president/North Korean leader summit: the 2018 North Korea–United States Singapore Summit was a summit meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Korea%E2%80%93United_States_Singapore_Summit - [2019-02-27/28] Second summit in Hanoi collapsed early with no deal: President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met in Hanoi to discuss North Korea's nuclear and missile programs...the two sides appeared to be far apart on the issue of sanctions relief. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN11067 - [2019-06-30] Third meeting at the DMZ, the only time achieved on relatively short notice via a spontaneous Twitter invite: Following the conclusions of the 2019 G20 Osaka summit, Trump and South Korean president Moon Jae-in visited the DMZ before the meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Kim invited Trump to cross the border line, and Trump briefly crossed in North Korea before crossing back into South Korea together with Kim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Koreas%E2%80%93United_States_DMZ_Summit — historically, 3 meetings occurred in Trump's first term (2018–2019), i.e., roughly one every 6-13 months during an active diplomatic push, but zero since 2019 despite continued rhetoric. - [2025-10-27] Prior to this cycle, an Asia-trip attempt to arrange a meeting fell through: a senior South Korean official said any encounter between Trump and Kim this week is "very unlikely," saying "There are talks the two could meet, but I believe that possibility is very unlikely." https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-love-meet-kim-101417178.html - [2026-08-19] Trump publicly restated intent for a fourth summit but with no concrete plans: "Yeah, I will," Trump said when asked whether he planned in-person talks with Kim...It's not clear how concrete Trump's plans are for a fourth summit with Kim. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-19] Reported timeframe tied to APEC in Shenzhen, but no formal preparation had begun: Trump has discussed meeting Kim during a planned trip to Asia, potentially in November when leaders are due to gather in Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No formal preparations for a summit have begun, however. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10844783 - [2026-09-23] North Korean side signaling no direct engagement and rejecting denuclearization framing: Trump has said he has plans to meet Kim "later this year." It was not clear if any meeting was actually planned. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of Kim Jong Un, said that she was not aware of any communication between the two leaders. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/lee-jae-myung-trump-kim-summit-north-korea.html - [2026-09-14] Polymarket's monthly "Who will Trump meet with" market for September priced Kim Jong Un at essentially zero: traders showed "Kim Jong Un · $7,372 Vol. 1% Buy Yes1.8¢Buy No99.5¢" for the Sept 30, 2026 window. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-september-20260826 - [2026-09-25 (current)] The full-year "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?" market currently prices Kim Jong Un at 22% Yes (Buy Yes 22¢), well below Putin (70%) but above most other listed figures like Lukashenko, Bolsonaro, Maduro. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026/will-trump-meet-with-lai-ching-te-in-2026 - [2025-11-05] The related market opened at a much higher price of 51% Yes back near its creation, before drifting down over 2026 as no meeting materialized despite repeated rhetoric — reflecting a base-rate pattern where trader-implied odds decayed as deadlines (first 100 days, individual months) passed without a meeting. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026/will-trump-meet-with-lai-ching-te-in-2026 - [2026-02 (referenced)] Reference class for "personal diplomacy" attempts shows repeated public overtures by Trump (2025 and 2026) not converting into an actual summit, unlike 2018 when a summit was announced and held within roughly one month of the initial breakthrough (release of detainees, Pompeo's secret trip). https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d774e776b444f32457a6333566d54/index.html BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for this specific dyad is mixed: three Trump-Kim meetings occurred within a compressed 13-month window in 2018-19 when both sides actively pursued diplomacy, but zero meetings have occurred in the roughly seven years since, despite recurring Trump statements of intent (2025 Asia trip, August 2026 "Yeah, I will") that have not yet been matched by any confirmed logistics, letters, or North Korean reciprocation; prediction-market pricing has drifted down from ~51% at market open to ~22% currently, and monthly sub-markets have priced near-certain "No" for each individual month so far in 2026, suggesting traders see repeated rhetorical openings without follow-through as the dominant pattern this cycle. NOT FOUND: No confirmed summit announcement, date, or venue for 2026; no evidence of direct Trump-Kim correspondence being confirmed by either side; no independent poll or expert survey (beyond Polymarket) with a specific probability estimate for this event.

- [2026-08-19] Trump made an explicit personal commitment to a 2026 meeting, telling reporters in an impromptu White House gaggle "Yeah, I will be" when asked if he expected to see Kim "later this year," adding "I get along with him very well," touting his relationship with Kim and offering an updated figure that North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." This is a first-term-strength personal commitment, not a vague aspiration. - [2026-08-19/21] The mechanism behind Trump's push has a concrete driver: the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was pushing aides to arrange a face-to-face meeting with Kim as early as November, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, after ordering the Pentagon to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, citing his "very good relationship" with Kim. The Diplomat's analysis frames a political-timing rationale: a summit at Shenzhen would land roughly two weeks after the November 3 midterm elections, letting Trump announce a foreign-policy win before voters could judge the actual results. - [2026-09-22/23] South Korea's government confirmed at the highest level that Trump personally renewed his offer to Kim during a real, held meeting (not just rhetoric): in a 30-minute Lee-Trump summit in New York, National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac stated "President Trump, in particular, reaffirmed his willingness to engage in dialogue with North Korea, and the two leaders agreed to maintain close communication as 'peacemakers and pacemakers' to open the door to dialogue with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula." - [2026-09-23] Lee Jae-myung publicly amplified the opening at the UN podium itself, calling Trump's posture "a hard won opportunity for change," and said he hopes that the "long suspended dialogue" between Pyongyang and Washington would resume — showing Seoul is actively lobbying and providing diplomatic cover/logistics for a summit, a role it played successfully before the 2018 Singapore breakthrough. - [2025-11-05] South Korea's own intelligence service had already assessed North Korean intent months earlier: NIS briefers told lawmakers Kim "has the intent to pursue dialogue with the United States and will seek contact if conditions become favorable," and separately that "North Korea is preparing behind the scenes for dialogue with the United States" and that Kim appeared to be calibrating his rhetorical tone with possible talks in mind. This is an intelligence-community assessment, not just Trump's own hope, that Pyongyang is not fundamentally opposed to eventual contact. - [2026-09-24] Even skeptical coverage confirms the outreach channel remains live rather than dead: five weeks after Trump's claim of a "very positive" response, Trump says Kim responded positively to his outreach, but five weeks later no meeting has been confirmed — i.e., no denial of ongoing contact, only absence of a finalized date, consistent with pre-summit ambiguity seen in 2018 before the Singapore announcement. - [2026-06-20] Trump has already shown a pattern of following through on stated intent to attend the Shenzhen APEC gathering itself: unveiling a new US presidential plane, Trump indicated he would return to China for "a big conference," presumably the APEC summit scheduled for November 18-19 in Shenzhen, and would become the first sitting US president to visit Shenzhen if he attends — meaning the physical prerequisite (Trump being in the region, near Kim's most plausible neutral/adjacent venue) is highly likely to be met independent of the Kim question. - [2026-09-25] The APEC Leaders' Meeting is confirmed for a year-long hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings, which will conclude with the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in November 2026 in Shenzhen Nov 18-19, giving a fixed, high-probability multilateral event that both South Korea's president and Japan's PM are also confirmed to attend, creating a ready-made staging ground and precedent (2019 DMZ meeting was arranged on short notice around a Trump Asia trip). - [2018-19 precedent, re-emphasized via mechanism] The 2019 DMZ meeting demonstrates that a Trump-Kim encounter can be arranged within days once Trump is physically in the region and extends even an informal invitation — a mechanism directly analogous to a possible sideline pull-aside at Shenzhen even without formal "summit" planning being announced in advance. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a Trump-initiated pull-aside or informal encounter timed to the confirmed Nov 18-19 APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, where Trump's attendance is already being telegraphed, South Korea (via Lee and Wi Sung-lac) is actively brokering and providing diplomatic cover, and Trump has made an unusually direct personal commitment ("Yeah, I will be") plus concrete gestures (scaled-back military exercises) toward Kim; North Korea's ambivalence (denials via Kim Yo Jong) mirrors the pre-Singapore 2018 pattern where a breakthrough followed weeks of mixed signals once Trump physically traveled to the region. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, venue, or bilateral channel/intermediary (no reported Pompeo-style secret trip or DMZ-style improvised handshake plan) for a 2026 Trump-Kim meeting; no direct on-record statement from Kim Jong Un himself (only Trump's characterization and Kim Yo Jong's denials); no evidence Trump's Shenzhen attendance has been formally confirmed by the White House as of Sept 25, 2026.

- [2026-08-19] Kim Yo Jong, speaking for the regime, denied any direct communication had occurred at all — "Kim Yo Jong, a top adviser and sister of North Korea's Kim Jong Un, denied knowledge of discussions between the country's leader and President Trump," stating "There has been no communication between the leaders of North Korea and the U.S." This is a flat denial of the very outreach Trump cited as "very positive," not just a rejection of a meeting. - [2026-08-20] Analysis from the Korea Economic Institute argues Kim now has structural reasons to snub Trump: "Kim is in a far more advantageous geopolitical position than in 2019... and does not need rapprochement with the United States to achieve its objectives" thanks to Russia-linked economic and military gains, undercutting the incentive structure that produced the 2018-19 summits. - [2026-08-20] The same analysis quantifies Kim's improved economic leverage — North Korea's economy has grown "over 3 percent annually" since 2022 on the back of Ukraine-war arms sales and crypto theft, per KEIA, reducing Pyongyang's dependence on sanctions relief that historically was the summit bait. - [2026-09-16] Pyongyang escalated its rhetorical rejection of the entire diplomatic premise: Kim Yo Jong denounced an IAEA general assembly session on denuclearization as a "familiar silly talk," saying "The DPRK's position as a nuclear weapons state is absolute which can not reverse with anything" — a direct rebuff of the precondition-free framing Washington has floated. - [2026-09-20/22] North Korea tested a new hypersonic-capable weapon with Kim Jong Un personally observing, days after reaffirming its nuclear-state status; analysts read this as Pyongyang "using its missile tests to take denuclearisation off the US-China summit agenda and drive home its demands for recognition as a nuclear power as a prerequisite for talks with Washington" — signaling defiance rather than summit readiness right before the APEC window. - [2026-09-18] Lee Jae-myung himself conceded the diplomatic channel is currently dead on the Korean side: "North Korea 'is clearly refusing to communicate with South Korea'" , undercutting Seoul's stated role as broker for any Trump-Kim contact. - [2026-09-20] North Korea's military followed through on threats tied to joint U.S.-Korea drills, having "launched about 10 short-range ballistic missiles toward the sea, apparently following through with a previous threat to respond to the U.S.-South Korean drill" even after Trump's Ulchi Freedom Shield scale-back, showing the concession Trump already made bought no reciprocal goodwill. - [2026-08-19] Even the White House's own framing keeps the timeline open-ended and non-binding — "A White House official stated that President Trump and Chairman Kim will meet at an appropriate time" — language that commits to nothing concrete and mirrors the vague "not-too-distant future" promises that failed to produce a meeting during the October 2025 Asia trip. - [2026-09-25 as of writing] Official APEC dates for Shenzhen are confirmed as November 18–19, not late November as some reports assumed, and no APEC host invitation to Kim (a non-APEC-member head of state) has been confirmed, per CSIS commentary this remains only speculative ("talk of the possibility") rather than an agreed mechanism for a Trump-Kim encounter. - [2026-08-21] North Korea's response to Trump's military drawdown gesture was explicitly dismissive: Kim Yo Jong said the shortened drills would not change their "provocative, aggressive nature," per CBS reporting, showing Pyongyang treats U.S. goodwill gestures as insufficient rather than confidence-building. - [2026-09-15] KEIA's own follow-on analysis (titled "The Midterms Will Not Change Trump's Approach Toward North Korea," Sep 15, 2026) signals continuity of an unresolved, drifting policy rather than any acceleration toward a summit as the year's political calendar (US midterms) absorbs attention. - [2026-09-16] Structural complication beyond Kim's own reluctance: Foreign Policy reporting flagged that any summit logistics now must also address a succession/optics question (whether daughter Kim Ju Ae accompanies him), an added layer of protocol complexity not present in the 2018-19 summits and one more variable that could slow or derail scheduling even if political will existed. BOTTOM LINE: Every North Korean statement since Trump's August outreach — from flat denial of contact, to dismissal of the military drawdown, to defiant nuclear-state declarations and missile/hypersonic tests timed around the Trump-Xi summit — points to Pyongyang deliberately withholding reciprocity, while Washington and Seoul's talk of a Shenzhen APEC (Nov 18-19) encounter remains speculative with no formal invitation, preparation, or NK acknowledgment; the pattern of rhetorical openings followed by North Korean rebuffs (repeated in Oct 2025, Aug 2026, and again mid-Sept 2026) plus Kim's improved economic/military leverage from Russia ties give strong structural reasons to expect no meeting materializes before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. NOT FOUND: Any direct on-record statement from Kim Jong Un himself (as opposed to Kim Yo Jong or state media commentary) rejecting or confirming a 2026 meeting; confirmation or denial that China has extended or will extend an APEC invitation to Kim Jong Un; any news after Sept 23, 2026 updating the Trump-Xi summit's discussion (if any) of North Korea.