CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.7%

- [2026-09-11] The BLS released the August 2026 CPI report: headline CPI-U rose 3.4% year-over-year (matching the 3.4% consensus), with core CPI up 2.4% y/y; this was the same annual rate as July 2026. The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending August as it did for the 12 months ending July. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-09-11] Energy was the main driver of the August print: the energy index broadly rose 2.1% amid pressure from escalating tensions in the Middle East and was up 16.3% from a year ago. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html - [2026-09-11] Shelter and food also contributed: the food index accelerated 2.7% annually. Another significant factor was a 0.3% climb in shelter costs, which had moderated over the prior two months. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html - [2026-09-11] Reaction from economists flagged upside risk: "Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today's August report did not deliver that," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, adding that "the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services." Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html - [2026-10-14 scheduled] The September 2026 CPI report — the one that resolves this market — has NOT yet been released. The Consumer Price Index for September 2026 is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. This is before the 2026-10-14 market close, so the print should be known before the market closes. Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - [2026-09-23] Street/market consensus for the September 2026 print (the reference figure most closely tied to this Kalshi contract's strike) is exactly 3.7% y/y, per a forecast tracker's latest data snapshot: The CPI for September 2026 is released October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET — consensus 3.7%, Nowflation forecast 3.47%. Source: https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-09-23] The same tracker notes forecast accuracy has been mixed recently: Of the last 27 headline CPI prints on this page, the Street consensus matched the print exactly 11 times (within 0.05 percentage points). Source: https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [~2026-09-early] A separate, more model-based nowcast diverges from the 3.7% Street consensus, projecting a lower reading: According to the Cleveland Fed's latest update, the CPI is estimated to ease to 3.38% in August and 3.3% in September. (Note: the actual August print came in at 3.4%, slightly above this nowcast.) Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-reserves-initial-september-inflation-082600336.html - [2026-09-22] An independent trend-extrapolation forecaster projects a slightly rising path: The current US CPI (Inflation) rate is equal 3.4%. CPI forecast for September 2026. The forecast for the beginning of September 3.360%... CPI at the end 3.440%, change for September 0.080 points. This model implies the September print lands near 3.4%, not 3.7%. Source: https://longforecast.com/us-cpi - [2026-09-10] The prior month's producer-price data (a leading indicator often watched ahead of CPI) showed continued elevated pipeline pressure: The latest official report, released September 10, 2026 for August 2026, showed final-demand PPI up 0.4% for the month and 5.4% over 12 months. Source: https://fedratecalc.com/ppi-release-date/ - [2026-08-12] For context, the July 2026 CPI print (released before the market's Sept 11 opening data point) matched estimates: The data matched economists' estimate for a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual rise, while the 12-month figure eased from June's 3.5%. Source: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-july-2026-what-to-expect - [2026-09-24] The BLS 2026 schedule confirms no CPI-related release is due between now and the October 14 print; the next major labor-market data (JOLTS, state employment) arrive in the interim but do not directly determine September CPI. Source: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched_list.htm BOTTOM LINE: As of today (2026-09-24) the actual September 2026 CPI figure is unknown — it will not print until 2026-10-14 (before the market's close that day). The most recent official data point is August 2026's 3.4% y/y print (2026-09-11), and while the Street consensus for September specifically sits at exactly 3.7% (the market's target value), competing nowcasts (Cleveland Fed ~3.3%, trend models ~3.4%) suggest meaningful uncertainty and disagreement about whether the actual print will land precisely on 3.7% rather than somewhat lower. NOT FOUND: No official BLS data for September 2026 CPI exists yet (release pending 2026-10-14); could not find a probability distribution or "exact-tenth" hit-rate specifically calibrated to 3.7% beyond the general 11-of-27 consensus-match statistic; could not confirm the precise minute-by-minute market-close mechanics on Kalshi relative to the 8:30am ET release on October 14.

- [2026-09-23] Nowflation's tracking page lists Street consensus for the September 2026 CPI print (due Oct 14, 2026) at 3.7%, while Nowflation's own model forecast is lower, at 3.58%, indicating some disagreement between the consensus (which the Kalshi "exactly 3.7%" bucket likely draws on) and independent nowcasts. The CPI for September 2026 is released October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET — consensus 3.7%, Nowflation forecast 3.58%. https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-09-23] Historical base rate for "consensus = actual print exactly": Of the last 27 headline CPI prints on this page, the Street consensus matched the print exactly 11 times (within 0.05 percentage points). That is roughly a 41% hit rate for consensus-equals-actual over the past ~2.25 years, a useful outside-view anchor for how often a single pre-announced consensus figure like 3.7% ends up being the literal reported value. - [2026-09-11] The two most recent CPI reports (July and August 2026) both landed exactly on consensus: the latest, August 2026 CPI released September 11, 2026, printed 3.4% against a 3.4% consensus , and July's print was also 3.4% vs a 3.4% consensus per the same tracker — suggesting a recent stretch (2 straight months) of consensus accuracy, which could raise near-term confidence in consensus-matching relative to the ~41% all-time base rate. - [2026-09-11] But base-rate volatility is real: earlier in 2026, forecasts missed by wider margins — e.g., June 2026 CPI printed 3.5% against a 3.8% consensus (a 0.3pp miss), and April 2026 printed 3.8% vs 3.7% consensus (a 0.1pp miss), per Nowflation's table — showing exact-match outcomes are far from guaranteed even in a single year. https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-09-24] Current Kalshi market structure for "Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)" uses threshold ("Above X%") contracts rather than a single exact-value contract; as of the fetch, "Above 3.6%" traded near 49% implied probability and "Above 3.7%" near 15%, implying the market-derived probability mass for the outcome "exactly 3.7%" (the range >3.6% to ≤3.7%) is roughly the difference, about 34%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation/kxcpiyoy-26sep - [2026-09-23] Independent forecasting models diverge from the Street consensus: the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast recently projected headline CPI easing toward roughly 3.3% by September 2026, according to a Motley Fool summary of the Fed's model, which would be a full 0.4pp below the 3.7% consensus figure. According to the Cleveland Fed's latest update, the CPI is estimated to ease to 3.38% in August and 3.3% in September. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-reserves-initial-september-inflation-082600336.html - [2026-09-22] A separate algorithmic forecaster (Long Forecast) projects a September 2026 CPI level implying a rate around 3.36%-3.44% at start/end of month, again below the 3.7% consensus figure, per The forecast for the beginning of September 3.360%... CPI at the end 3.440%, change for September 0.080 points. This reinforces that the 3.7% consensus is an outlier relative to at least two independent nowcasting models. https://longforecast.com/us-cpi - [2026-08-22] Prior to the August CPI release, a betting-market/AI-panel comparison noted Every seat and the market agree the number lands around 3.4 , an example of consensus-driven convergence that later proved accurate for August (3.4% actual) — illustrating that when consensus is tight and near-unanimous, it has recently been a reliable predictor; the September question (3.7% consensus) is less unanimous given diverging nowcasts. https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/cpi-report-odds-model-verdict - [2026-09-11] BLS confirms the official next release date, removing scheduling uncertainty for this market's resolution: The Consumer Price Index news release for September 2026 is scheduled to be published on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09-11] Recent actual trend: headline YoY CPI has been flat at 3.4% for two consecutive months (July and August 2026), per BLS: The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending August as it did for the 12 months ending July. A rise to exactly 3.7% in September would require a 0.3pp jump in one month, which historically is a large but not unprecedented move (base effects from energy/tariffs cited by economists) — see wichitaliberty.org's note that Twelve-month view: – August 2025: 3.0% year-over-year – August 2026: 3.4% year-over-year – Change: +0.4 percentage points , showing recent 12-month swings have already been in this magnitude. BOTTOM LINE: The base-rate evidence is mixed: historically the Street consensus has matched the exact headline CPI print only about 41% of the time over the last 27 releases, and while the two most recent prints hit consensus exactly, independent nowcasts (Cleveland Fed ~3.3%, Long Forecast ~3.4%, Nowflation ~3.58%) currently sit well below the 3.7% consensus figure, and Kalshi's own threshold pricing implies only about a one-third chance of landing exactly in the 3.7% bucket — together suggesting "exactly 3.7%" is plausible but far from the modal outcome. NOT FOUND: Could not find a direct, up-to-date price/probability for a dedicated Kalshi "exactly 3.7%" single-value contract (the fetched Kalshi page displayed threshold/"Above X%" contracts, not a single-bucket exact-match contract); could not find peer-reviewed backtests specifically quantifying how often "exactly X.X%" CPI questions of this kind have resolved Yes on Kalshi historically.

- [2026-09-24] Live Kalshi pricing for this exact contract cluster shows meaningful mass on the high side: the "Above 3.7%" strike trades at 24¢ (Yes) / 84¢ (No), implying roughly a 1-in-4 market-assessed chance the print exceeds 3.7% outright, on top of whatever probability sits in the "exactly 3.7%" bucket itself — evidence the market is not dismissing an upside surprise. Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation/kxcpiyoy-26sep - [2026-09-07] The core mechanism for a jump to 3.7% is an energy shock that intensified after the August CPI reference period closed: Brent crude "rose to hover around $97 a barrel — up 9 percent over the last five days and 19 percent over the last month" amid escalating U.S.-Iran strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/7/oil-prices-surge-as-us-iran-strikes-intensify-in-strait-of-hormuz - [2026-09-07] Retail gasoline continued climbing into September, not reversing as some analysts hoped: the "average price for a gallon of petrol has jumped 7 cents over the course of a week, reaching $4.15 nationally on Monday," pushing pump prices toward record territory. Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/7/oil-prices-surge-as-us-iran-strikes-intensify-in-strait-of-hormuz - [~2026-09-early] A CBS live-update report corroborates the acceleration, noting international benchmarks "trading near their highest levels since July" with Brent near $97 and WTI above $92, and gas prices "on track to set a Labor Day record" — a materially hotter energy input than the one behind August's 3.4% print. Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-strait-of-hormuz-oil-gas-price-strikes/ - [2026-09-09] The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook confirms the price base is elevated and sticky, not a one-off spike: "Global oil prices rose to an average of $91 per barrel in August, $7/b higher than in July," and the agency expects prices to "remain elevated" as Middle East export constraints persist through year-end — a base-effect tailwind for the September y/y energy comparison. Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [~2026-09-early] The Cleveland Fed's real-time nowcast shows core, not just energy, reaccelerating: the model "sees Core PCE reaccelerating to 3.4% in August and 3.49% in September," which the underlying analysis attributes to "Trumpflation" spreading beyond energy into broader goods and services via tariff pass-through — a mechanism consistent with a bigger-than-usual monthly headline jump. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-reserves-initial-september-inflation-082600336.html - [2026-09-11] Nationwide's chief economist explicitly flagged this spillover risk right after the August print, warning that "the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services" — precisely the channel that would need to fire for September to jump 0.3pp to 3.7%. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html - [2026-09-11] The BLS's own August release shows the size of a single-month energy move already achievable: gasoline alone "rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase," and the broader energy index was "up 16.3% from a year ago" — with September's oil rally (Brent +19% month-over-month per the Sept 7 Al Jazeera report) suggestive of an even larger gasoline print for September. - [2025-03] Historical precedent within this same conflict cycle shows single-month gasoline CPI moves of extraordinary scale are possible: tradingeconomics data show a "historic 30% monthly surge" in gasoline futures in March 2026 tied to an earlier acute phase of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, establishing that energy-driven CPI shocks of this magnitude have already occurred once in 2026. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline/news/530388 - [2026-03-17] TD Economics' scenario modeling from earlier in the crisis quantified the ceiling on energy-driven headline effects, estimating the Middle East shock alone "adds about 0.8 percentage points to headline CPI, with a peak of 3.8% in the second quarter," and that a renewed "escalation scenario" could push inflation "as high as 4.5%" — providing a numeric precedent that a 3.7% print is well within the range the shock has already produced or could reproduce if September's renewed escalation (per the Sept 7 reports) feeds through. Source: https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/documents/reports/qef/2026-mar/QEF_March2026_US.pdf - [2026-09-23] Despite lower model-based nowcasts, the Street consensus itself sits exactly at 3.7% for September, and the tracker notes the two most recent months (July, August) both landed exactly on consensus, suggesting forecasters' most recent read — which already incorporates some of the early-September oil spike — has not moved off 3.7% even as new energy data emerged. Source: https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is an energy-led upside surprise: oil and gasoline prices accelerated further after the August CPI reference period closed (Brent to ~$97, gasoline toward record highs amid intensifying Strait of Hormuz strikes), a shock of a magnitude that has already produced comparable headline jumps earlier in 2026 and that multiple economists and the Cleveland Fed's model warn could spill into core goods/services — plausibly delivering the 0.3pp jump from August's 3.4% to exactly 3.7%, a scenario the live Kalshi order book still assigns a non-trivial (~24%+) probability to. NOT FOUND: No official September gasoline/energy CPI sub-index data (not yet released); no direct Wall Street "point estimate" bridge showing exactly how much of the early-September oil spike forecasters have already baked into the 3.7% consensus; could not find a dedicated Kalshi "exactly 3.7%" single-strike contract price (only threshold "Above X%" strikes were available).

- [2026-09-24] Live Kalshi order book for this exact contract (fetched directly) prices "Above 3.5%" at 83%, "Above 3.6%" at 49%, and "Above 3.7%" at 15% — implying the market-derived probability that September lands exactly in the >3.6%-to-3.7% bucket (i.e., rounds to 3.7%) is ~34% (49%−15%), meaning traders assign roughly a two-thirds chance the print will NOT be exactly 3.7%. Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation/kxcpiyoy-26sep - [2026-09-24] The same order book shows the 3.6% bucket (49%−83%=34%) is priced identically to the 3.7% bucket, so even in the market's own view "exactly 3.7%" is merely tied for most-likely single outcome, not a clear favorite — a structural headwind to any "Yes" thesis. Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation/kxcpiyoy-26sep - [2026-09-22] Long Forecast's algorithmic trend model, updated after the August print, projects the CPI level path ending September at roughly 3.44% and only reaching the 3.7% area near the start of October — i.e., its own trajectory data implies September itself likely prints materially below 3.7%. Source: https://longforecast.com/us-cpi - [2026-09-15] CNBC's Fed survey of 29 economists/strategists — taken after the hawkish Jackson Hole shift and the oil spike — put the average CPI forecast for all of 2026 at "near 3.5%," a full two-tenths below the market's 3.7% strike, even though the same survey saw broadening inflation risk and priced in multiple Fed hikes. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/cnbc-fed-survey-two-rate-hikes-seen-ahead.html - [2026-09-22] Trading Economics' consensus for the next (September) print, compiled from the same economist panel used for prior correctly-called months, still anchors near the 3.4% trend line rather than jumping to 3.7%, consistent with headline CPI having been "steady" for two straight months. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi - [2026-09-16] Choose Energy's state-by-state gasoline tracker shows the national average rose only 1.6% month-over-month (from $4.08 to $4.15) between the August and September survey windows — a much smaller monthly energy impulse than August's 3.9% gasoline jump that drove the move to 3.4%, suggesting the energy channel alone is unlikely to add the ~0.3pp needed to hit 3.7% precisely. Source: https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/cost-of-driving-by-state/ - [2026-09-09] EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook still frames 2026 crude/gasoline prices as elevated but on a plateauing path (Brent easing toward $90.66/b by Q4), not accelerating further, which cuts against a sharp one-month upside surprise landing the YoY figure on the specific 3.7% tenth. Source: https://usgasgauge.com/gas-price-forecast - [2026-09-11] BLS's own August release shows the 12-month rate has been flat at 3.4% for two consecutive months (July and August) — a jump of exactly 0.3pp to 3.7% in a single month would be a larger one-month acceleration than either of the prior two reports delivered, arguing against the base case. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-09-24] Historical precedent (an older, non-2026 example resurfaced in search results) shows that even when September CPI has previously landed at 3.7%, the very next month's consensus swiftly moved off that number to 3.6% and actual prints have repeatedly diverged from single-tenth consensus targets — illustrating how fragile a single-decimal "exact" forecast is from month to month. Source: https://benzinga.com/z/35198234 - [2026-09-23] Nowflation's own quantitative nowcast (distinct from the Street's 3.7% consensus that anchors this question) sits at 3.47–3.58% depending on the vintage cited, underscoring that professional nowcasters — not just outlier models like Cleveland Fed — cluster below the market's 3.7% strike. Source: https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-09-24] No BLS, Fed, or private release between now and the Oct 14 print offers any information that would move estimates decisively onto 3.7%; the resolution window mechanically depends on a single data point, and one-decimal CPI rounding means any true value from 3.65% to 3.749% would round to "3.7," a narrow ~9-basis-point band that the diverging nowcasts (3.3%–3.6%) mostly fall outside of. Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ BOTTOM LINE: Every independent evidence stream reviewed — live Kalshi pricing (~34% for exactly 3.7%), CNBC's economist survey (~3.5% average), Long Forecast's trend model (~3.44%), Nowflation's nowcast (~3.47–3.58%), and the recent two-month plateau at 3.4% with only a modest September gasoline uptick — points toward a most-likely outcome below 3.7%, or at best a coin-flip against it, making "NO" (not exactly 3.7%) the better-supported resolution. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of the exact bid/ask on a dedicated Kalshi single-value "3.7%" contract distinct from the threshold ladder used to infer the ~34% bucket probability; no post-September-11 Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll specifically targeting the September (not August) CPI print was located.