Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-17] The Bank of England's MPC voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the meeting ending 16 September 2026 (announced 17 September); this was the sixth consecutive hold since the rate was cut to 3.75% in December 2025. At its meeting ending on 16 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026 - [2026-09-17] The three dissenters (Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Huw Pill) voted for an immediate hike to 4.00%, the same split as the prior meeting. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill again voted for an immediate rise to 4%, the same split as 30 July. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [2026-09-17] The MPC's own minutes state the risks to the inflation outlook are judged upside-skewed, and it "stands ready to act as necessary" to keep inflation on track for the 2% target. three MPC members (Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill) voted for an immediate 25bp increase to 4.00%; the majority chose to wait, citing financial conditions already working to push down inflation https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026 - [2026-09-16] UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August 2026 (from 2.9% in July), a five-month high, driven mainly by energy/motor-fuel costs from the Middle East conflict. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% the previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5% in August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3% in August 2025. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest - [2026-09-16] BoE staff project CPI inflation rising to around 3¾% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1, up from a 3.2% Q4 forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report. On 17 September, the MPC said inflation is expected to rise in coming quarters, reaching "slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1". https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02802/ - [2026-09-16] Minutes note financial markets had already raised the perceived probability of near-term Bank Rate increases, with the short-term OIS curve upward-sloping, peaking around 4.9% by end-2027. Nearly all respondents to the September Market Participants Survey had expected a hold at the September meeting itself. - [2026-09-16] BoE minutes state that as of 14 September, Brent crude had reached $106/barrel and UK wholesale gas 207 pence/therm, up 36% and 78% respectively since the July Report, sustaining the energy-driven inflation shock. - [2026-09-16] The MPC also voted unanimously for a new multi-year QT plan (annual average £46bn reduction in asset holdings to zero by end-2034, via £20bn annual gilt sales), a separate but simultaneous decision from the Bank Rate vote. - [2026-09-23 (as of today)] The next scheduled MPC decision is confirmed for 5 November 2026, accompanied by a new Monetary Policy Report and press conference, as listed on the BoE's official calendar. Next due: 5 November 2026 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates - [2026-09-18] Reports characterize November as "the live meeting," with markets pricing a November or December hike as the most likely next move, though most professional economists still lean toward a hold. Markets are pricing a November or December hike as the most likely next move — the Bank's next scheduled meeting is 5 November 2026; with three of nine MPC members already voting for an immediate increase https://blog.orbitremit.com/bank-of-england-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] SONIA-derived market pricing gave the September hold an 87% implied probability, and the curve still priced the first rate rise arriving by December 2026 — i.e., a hike is priced as more likely at/after November than at the September meeting itself. The result matched market pricing, which gave a hold an 87% chance on 16 September, and the SONIA curve on this page still has the first rise priced by December. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/interest-rate-projection - [2026-09-18 approx.] A Reuters poll of economists found only about one in eight expected a November hike, with several major forecasters (ING, Oxford Economics) still expecting the Bank to hold through 2026 and cut only in 2027, contrasting with more hawkish market pricing implying roughly four hikes over the next 12 months. A Reuters poll of economists in September found that around one in eight expected a November hike. https://hoa.org.uk/news/interest-rate-predictions-2/ Key upcoming data before the 5 November decision: the September CPI release is due 21 October 2026 (not yet published as of today), which will be a major input into the MPC's November decision along with the new Monetary Policy Report and energy price developments. BOTTOM LINE: As of 23 September 2026, Bank Rate stands at 3.75% after a sixth consecutive 6–3 hold on 17 September, with three MPC members already voting for an immediate hike and the Bank's own forecasts showing inflation (3.1% in August, seen rising toward 4% in early 2027) tilted to the upside; November 5 is widely described as a "live" meeting, but professional economist surveys still lean toward another hold even as market-implied pricing has shifted meaningfully toward a hike by year-end. NOT FOUND: No official BoE or market-data source confirms a firm probability or consensus figure specifically for the 5 November decision as of today (only somewhat inconsistent claims like an "80%" hike probability from a third-party site of uncertain reliability, versus Reuters poll figures showing only ~1-in-8 economists expecting a November hike); the September 2026 UK CPI release (due 21 October 2026) has not yet been published and will likely be pivotal.

- [2026-09-17] The BoE MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting since the December 2025 cut, voting 6–3, with the minority (Mann, Greene, Pill) preferring an immediate 25bp hike to 4.00%; the same 6-3 split as the July meeting. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at its September 16, 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point increase to 4%, the same as at the July meeting. - [2026-09-17] BoE's own forecast is hawkish: the short-term inflation forecast projects CPI reaching somewhat over 4% early next year, mechanically driven by energy prices and expected increases in food price inflation, both salient for households' inflation attentiveness ahead of wage negotiations next spring. - [2026-09-17] Reuters/AP coverage of the decision: though borrowing rates were kept on hold, financial markets think it's more likely than not that the bank will back an increase at one of the next two policy meetings, either in November or December. - [2026-09-22] Market-implied pricing (OIS/SONIA forwards) as of the fetch date puts the probability of a hike at the November 5 meeting materially above 50%, with estimates diverging by source: one tracker (Central Bank Watch, mid-July snapshot) had 80% odds of a rate hike at the meeting on November 5, 2026, with the current market-implied probability of a 25bp hike at 80% , while a more recent tracker (BlueGamma, dated 22 Sept 2026) shows overnight index swap pricing implying a 67% probability of a hike and a market-implied move of +17bp from 3.75%, with hold priced at 33% and cut at 0%. - [2026-09-2x] Economist surveys/analysts remain split and somewhat less hawkish than markets: most economists expect interest rates to remain at 3.75% for the rest of 2026, while markets are pricing in a rise later this year and further increases in 2027, with four quarter-point rises in total by July 2027. One analyst (Interactive Investor) argued "The Bank is likely to carry out roughly one 25 basis point hike by the end of the year as it looks to temper the risk of overheating and help push the inflation rate back in the direction of [its] 2% target." Others (ING, Oxford Economics, AJ Bell) expect holds through 2026 or even a return to cuts. - [2026-09-17] Peer central banks have already moved: the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% the day before the BoE's September decision, and the ECB raised rates on 10 September 2026 to a 2.50% deposit rate, having also hiked in June 2026 — both citing Middle East conflict-driven inflation, the same driver cited by the BoE. At its 10 September 2026 meeting the ECB raised its main interest rates by 0.25 of a percentage point, with the deposit rate increased from 2.25% to 2.5%, having previously raised interest rates in June 2026, also by 0.25 of a percentage point. - [Historical base rate] The BoE hiking after a cutting cycle is a rare event in the reference class: since 2007, this happened once before — the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade in November 2017, when the MPC voted 7-2 in favour of raising the interest rate to 0.5%, from a record low of 0.25% — following an emergency cut in 2016. Excluding the 2021-2023 tightening cycle (which was a sustained 14-meeting hiking run driven by an inflation surge, not a reversal after cuts), true "reversal" hikes after a cutting phase are historically uncommon events, typically requiring a fresh inflation shock. - [2026 context] The current situation is such a shock: the BoE cut rates steadily from August 2024 to December 2025 (a 1.5pp total reduction) before this year's Middle East/Iran-war-driven energy price spike reversed the disinflation narrative. Rates were gradually cut, by 1.5 percentage points in total, from August 2024 to December 2025; CPI inflation was 3.1% in August 2026, above the MPC's target of 2%; prior to the conflict in the Middle East, the Bank expected inflation to fall to around 2% from April 2026 and stay close to 2% for the rest of 2026. - [Track record note] Market-implied pricing from OIS/SONIA futures has a reasonably good short-horizon track record for BoE decisions historically (e.g., correctly anticipating the August 2024 cut, though that call was less consensus, with financial markets having only seen just over a 60 per cent chance of a cut ahead of that meeting, which nonetheless occurred) — suggesting current market pricing of a hike (60-80% depending on source/date) should be taken seriously but is not a certainty. - [2025-11-07] The BoE's own quantitative Market Participants Survey (a formal, Bank-run poll of ~88 market participants) from November 2025 — before the current energy shock — had median expectations for a much lower rate path (e.g., 3.50-3.75% for February 2026), illustrating how quickly the rate path re-priced upward once the Middle East conflict intensified in 2026. The survey was open from 22–24 October 2025 with responses from 88 market participants, and asked for their most likely expectation for Bank Rate after upcoming MPC meetings. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class for a BoE hike immediately following a cutting cycle is historically rare (essentially one precedent since 2007, in Nov 2017), but the current cycle has an unusual and escalating exogenous inflation shock (Middle East/Iran war energy prices) that has already prompted the Fed and ECB to hike and pushed three of nine MPC members to vote for an immediate hike twice in a row; market pricing (60-80% depending on source and date) currently leans toward a hike at the November 5 meeting, though a majority of surveyed economists still lean toward a hold. NOT FOUND: An authoritative, single up-to-the-day consensus number reconciling the divergent market-implied probabilities (67% vs 80%) between trackers, and any post-September-22 Market Participants Survey or Reuters poll of economists specifically for the November 2026 meeting.

**Strongest YES case: energy-driven inflation shock forces the hawks to win the November vote, with Goldman Sachs, market pricing, and the actual Polymarket contract all already leaning toward a hike.** - [2026-09-23] The specific Polymarket contract for this exact question ("Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?") is currently priced at **65% Yes**, per the related-markets listing on Polymarket's own site — direct market-implied odds favoring YES, not just proxy trackers. - [2026-09-14] Goldman Sachs reversed its prior no-change call and now explicitly forecasts a 25-basis-point rate hike in November 2026 as inflation persists and growth holds up, previously having expected rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026 . Berenberg's chief economist Holger Schmieding also expects a quarter-point hike in November, arguing that solid summer growth should allow the economy to withstand a single increase . This is a genuine sell-side consensus shift, not just a market-pricing artifact. - [2026-09-14] Goldman's own rationale rests on three concrete, checkable inputs: recent weeks brought major increases in wholesale energy prices, a larger rise in headline inflation than the Bank had expected, and strong growth data , with Goldman economist James Moberly quantifying the inflation path — recent energy-price increases could push UK inflation to a peak of 3.9% early next year, well above the Bank's 2% target . - [2026-09-14] The growth side of the case is concrete: UK GDP rose 0.4% in July, beating expectations for no growth and helping support the case that the economy could absorb another rate increase , undercutting the standard dovish objection that a hike would be too damaging to activity. - [2026-09-15] The September labour-market release shows earnings still running well above target-consistent levels even as it cools: annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 3.5% in May to July 2026, relatively stable over the past five consecutive three-month periods, while total earnings growth was 3.9%, down from 4.2% — a level a hawk can still cite as inconsistent with 2% inflation, feeding the "second-round effects" argument already flagged in the September minutes. - [2026-09-22] Oil prices, while off their peak, remain sharply elevated versus pre-shock levels: Brent traded in a range with a 52-week high of 109.97 and 52-week range spanning from 58.72 to 126.41 , and spot Brent was trading at $99.27 per barrel, about $32.60 higher than where it stood a year ago — meaning even with a partial pullback, the inflationary energy impulse cited by the BoE, ECB and Fed as grounds for hiking has not reversed by decision time. - [2026-09-22] However, a genuine near-term risk to the YES case is a possible Iran de-escalation: reports note Trump saying a deal with Iran could follow the November elections, and Iran signaling readiness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if a US blockade were lifted , which — if realized before November 5 — would remove some of the energy-price rationale hawks are using; conversely, if talks stall or the conflict re-escalates before the meeting, the inflationary energy shock underpinning the hike case is reinforced. - [2026-09-17] Peer-central-bank precedent adds momentum: with the Fed and ECB already citing the same Middle East energy shock in hiking in September, the BoE's three dissenters (Mann, Greene, Pill) have now voted for an immediate hike in back-to-back meetings (July and September), a persistent and *growing* hawkish faction rather than a one-off dissent — a mechanism (needing just two of the six current "hold" voters to flip, or the external forecast/inflation data to firm up further) that is the most plausible path to a majority hike vote on November 5. - [2026-09-17] The MPC's own communicated reaction function keeps the door open: the minutes state the Committee "stands ready to act as necessary" to keep inflation on track for the 2% target language previously used, combined with the Bank's own forecast that inflation is "slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1" — an explicit institutional tripwire that a hawkish CPI print on October 21 could trigger. BOTTOM LINE: The most probable path to YES is a further upside surprise in the September CPI print (due 21 October) and/or continued elevated energy prices reinforcing the Bank's own above-target Q1 2027 forecast, tipping 2-3 of the six "hold" voters to join Mann/Greene/Pill's now twice-repeated hawkish dissent; this path is bolstered by Goldman Sachs' explicit call for a November hike, Berenberg's concurring forecast, resilient GDP data, and market pricing (the specific Polymarket contract at 65%, broader OIS-implied probabilities in the 65-80% range across trackers) that already treats a November hike as more likely than not, though a swift Iran de-escalation before the meeting is the main threat to this path. NOT FOUND: No official BoE communication or speech dated after 18 September explicitly previewing the November decision; no post-September Market Participants Survey (BoE's own poll) has yet been published; the pivotal 21 October CPI print is not yet available.

- [2026-09-17] The pre-meeting Reuters poll ahead of the September decision found unanimity among all 65 economists surveyed for a hold, with the majority (57 of 65) expecting rates to stay at 3.75% through year-end and only 8 seeing a rise to 4.00% by year-end — a much larger dovish consensus than the hawkish MPC minority, and this same survey run reappears post-meeting as the basis for the ~1-in-8-for-November figure. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-09-16] Underlying (non-headline) inflation gauges did not deteriorate at the last reading: core CPI held flat at 2.6% y/y and services CPI was unchanged at 3.4%, with the entire upside surprise concentrated in the volatile transport/fuel component — precisely the "energy pass-through without second-round effects" pattern the MPC has said would justify continued patience. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-09-16] The Bank's own Decision Maker Panel survey — a direct, forward-looking gauge of embedding risk — showed firms' one-year CPI expectations falling to 3.1% from 3.4%, with expected wage growth remaining contained, undercutting the "inflation expectations de-anchoring" rationale for a hike. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-09-15] Labour-market data released just before the September decision showed continued cooling: total pay growth eased to 3.9% from 4.2%, the claimant count jumped 27.8k (vs +8.3k expected), and HMRC payrolls fell 26k — a slack labour market is a classic argument against tightening into a demand-side hold rather than validating a hike. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-09-08] At a Treasury Committee hearing days before the September decision, Governor Bailey explicitly pushed back on rate-hike inevitability, saying he wanted to dispel the idea markets have "a secret plan" and that hikes are a "when" rather than a conditional possibility, arguing market pricing embeds an oil-driven "risk premium" rather than a Bank forecast. https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bank-of-englands-bailey-pushes-back-on-rate-hike-expectations-93CH-2688098 - [2026-07-30] At the July meeting's press conference, Bailey stated it would be wrong to conclude the BoE is edging toward a hike — a remark the market read as dovish — indicating the Governor (part of the 6-vote majority in both July and September) has twice actively resisted the hike narrative rather than validating it. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-09-2x] A post-September Reuters poll found only around one in eight economists now expect a November hike, and a HomeOwners Alliance summary of house views shows Bank of America and Oxford Economics expecting rates held through all of 2026, contrasting sharply with market-implied hike pricing. https://hoa.org.uk/news/interest-rate-predictions-2/ - [2026-09-2x] Goldman Sachs (via the Reuters poll writeup) explicitly argues Bank Rate market pricing "looks too high," projecting UK inflation to peak at 3.3% in November (below the BoE's own ~3.75-4% profile) and then fall faster, expecting the MPC to hold through 2026 before cutting in 2027 — i.e., a major sell-side house sees the energy shock as transitory enough not to require tightening. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-england-to-hold-rates-show-patience-with-wardriven-inflation-reuters-poll-4891672 - [2026-09-2x] The same Reuters poll notes "so far there has been no evidence of higher energy costs filtering through to inflation in the wider economy," with one Santander economist stating flatly that "for the Bank, there are no flashing warning signs" — directly undercutting the case for a hawkish surprise absent new data. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-england-to-hold-rates-show-patience-with-wardriven-inflation-reuters-poll-4891672 - [2026-09-2x] A dedicated November-preview piece notes that "nine in ten of the 64 economists" polled before the September meeting expected no change through all of 2026, and frames the real test as the November Monetary Policy Report/forecast round rather than the raw headline CPI print, since "a 3.1% headline print on its own does not move the centre of the Committee" — only clear evidence of second-round effects would. https://www.mortgageonefinance.co.uk/news/next-bank-of-england-meeting - [Mechanism] The Autumn Budget lands 28 October 2026, just 8 days before the 5 November decision; BoE previewers have flagged that proximity to a fiscal event historically "argues against a significant policy shift or signal" at the adjacent MPC meeting, giving the majority institutional cover to hold again while assessing fiscal-policy interactions before committing to a rate change. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-boe-announcement-on-thursday-17th-september-2026-at-1200-bst0700-edt-repost - [2026-04-08] The reference-class precedent from earlier in this same energy-shock episode shows how quickly hike pricing can evaporate: when a US-Iran ceasefire was struck on 8 April 2026, Brent crude plunged roughly 14-16% in a single session and traders "significantly scaled back their expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes," re-pricing from multiple hikes to just one for the year within a day — illustrating that today's hawkish pricing is conditional on the conflict/energy trajectory and could reverse before 5 November if de-escalation recurs. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield/news/540076 BOTTOM LINE: Beneath the hawkish MPC minority and elevated market-implied hike odds sits a majority-of-six voting bloc (including Bailey, who has twice explicitly downplayed hike inevitability), core/services inflation and wage/DMP-expectations data that have not deteriorated, a heavily dovish-leaning economist consensus (as low as ~1-in-8 for a November hike, with Goldman/BofA/Oxford Economics expecting holds into 2027), a proximate Budget that argues for policy caution, and a demonstrated history this cycle of hike pricing evaporating rapidly on any de-escalation in the Middle East energy shock — all of which support a "No" (hold) outcome remaining the more probable resolution for the 5 November meeting absent a further adverse inflation or energy shock in the interim. NOT FOUND: No evidence yet of the pivotal 21 October September-CPI print or a Bank-run November Market Participants Survey; no confirmed post-22 September speech from a majority-bloc MPC member (e.g., Lombardelli, the flagged "swing" voter) explicitly signalling a shift toward the hawks ahead of November.