Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026?

- [2026-09-22] The CNN-tracked Fear & Greed Index reading stood at 34, in the "Fear" zone (score range 25-44 = Fear), per an aggregator that cross-references the official CNN Business source. The current value of the Fear & Greed Index as of September 22, 2026 is 34 (fear). - [2026-09-22] A separate independent tracker (fearandgreedgraph.com, fetched directly) showed the index at 35 (Fear) as of that day, with the prior week's reading at 28 (Fear) and one month prior at 55 (Neutral) — indicating a recent slide back into Fear territory after a mid-period neutral/greed phase, with component detail showing Stock Price Strength (2.4) and Stock Price Breadth (0.0) both in Extreme Fear, while Market Volatility and Safe Haven Demand were closer to neutral/greed. - [2026-09-22] feargreedmeter.com independently reported the same value: The Fear and Greed Index for stock market currently stands at 34, reflecting Fear in investor sentiment today. - [2026-09-22] A rival methodology tracker (CFGI.io) diverges sharply, showing the stock market Fear and Greed Index today is 61, Greed for the 22 September 2026 session — a reminder that non-CNN trackers use different weighting and can disagree materially from the official CNN gauge that Kalshi's market actually resolves against. - [2026-09-04] On the most recent comparable Kalshi weekly contract that has resolved, On September 4, the Fear & Greed Index registered 35.23, a reading in the "Fear" range , showing the index has been oscillating in the Fear band for weeks. - [2026-09-08] Earlier-September Kalshi contract odds (via Octagon tracker) for the Sept 11, 2026 market implied the index was seen as more likely to be "Greed" (64% market) than "Fear" (55% market) at that point, but by mid-September conditions reversed toward Fear again per the Sept 18 contract, where the market did not expect Greed on Sep 18, 2026, pricing "Greed" at only 27.0%. The market does not expect the Fear & Greed Index to show "Greed" on September 18, 2026, pricing this outcome at 27.0%. - [2026-09-02] A driver of the fear pattern: This was followed on September 2 by a 9 point drop in the "Greed" contract, which coincided with the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index falling to 31.3 and entering its "Fear" zone based on economic data releases. - [2026-08-24 to 2026-09-02] Kalshi's Fear & Greed contract series has shown notable swings tied to macro releases: the market's largest move, a 20 percentage point spike in the "Fear" contract on August 24, 2026 ... Subsequent price action was tied to identifiable macroeconomic and policy developments. On August 25, the "Neutral" contract rose 9 percentage points following a US Treasury decision to double its long-end debt buybacks to $4 billion per operation. - [scheduled] Key data releases before the Oct 9 resolution date that could move the index: GDP Third Estimate on Sep 30, 2026; the Monthly Employment Report (September 2026 data) on Oct 2, 2026; both fall inside the trading window (source: fearandgreedgraph.com economic calendar, fetched 2026-09-22). - [2026-07-02 rules baseline] Kalshi's standard resolution language for this series (seen on the analogous Jul 2, 2026 contract) states: Resolves Yes if the first value update after 4:00 PM ET on Jul 2, 2026 is Fear...If no update is made after 4:00 PM ET on Jul 2, 2026 for one week, then the last available value will be used. The Oct 9, 2026 contract almost certainly uses identical wording, confirming resolution is tied strictly to the official CNN reading at/just after 4:00 PM ET that day. - [2026-09-08] Kalshi's live market page (via Octagon) shows the series is active and continuously listing new weekly-style events: Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (2 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Fear and Greed index markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below. BOTTOM LINE: As of Sep 22, 2026 (the most recent reading available), the CNN Fear & Greed Index sat at 34-35 — squarely in the "Fear" band — after oscillating between Fear and brief Neutral/Greed spells over the prior month, driven by macro data surprises (payrolls, Fed policy, Treasury buyback news). With more scheduled macro catalysts (GDP, jobs report, CPI) landing before Oct 9, the index's positioning heading into the question's resolution date leans toward Fear remaining plausible, but the index has shown it can swing 10-20 points within one to two weeks, so the Sep 22 "Fear" reading is informative but not conclusive for Oct 9. NOT FOUND: The specific Kalshi market page/ticker for "Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026" (KXFEAR-26OCT09) was not directly accessible (Kalshi's own site returned only boilerplate/no data on fetch), so current implied market probability for that specific contract could not be confirmed; the official CNN Business page (cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed) itself could not be fetched directly (permission denied) to verify the live number first-hand.

- [2026-09-22] The current CNN Fear & Greed Index value is 34–35, in the "Fear" zone (25–44 band), "The current value of the Fear & Greed Index as of September 22, 2026 is 34 (fear)." https://www.finhacker.cz/en/fear-and-greed-index-historical-data-and-chart/ - [2026-09-17] The index had fallen further to 26 (still Fear) after the Fed raised rates, with the CNN gauge "showed further decline in overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the "Fear" zone on Wednesday" , coinciding with a 631-point Dow drop. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/26/09/61833256/dow-tumbles-over-600-points-as-fed-raises-rates-investor-sentiment-weakens-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone - [2026-09-22] Base-rate frequency (all-time, 3,953 trading days since 2011): index sits in "Fear" 27% of days, "Extreme Fear" 15%, "Neutral" 17%, "Greed" 32%, "Extreme Greed" 9% — so combined Fear+Extreme Fear occurs on roughly 42% of all days historically, per the finhacker.cz dataset compiled from CNN's official page and archives. - [2026-09-22] Last-12-months base rate is notably more fear-skewed: over the trailing 252 trading days the index averaged 42.25, with Fear 40% of days and Extreme Fear 15% (total ~55% Fear-or-worse), versus Greed only 25% and Extreme Greed 0%, indicating the recent regime has been unusually risk-off compared to the full 2011–2026 history. - [2026-09-22] Year-to-date 2026 stats (181 days) show Fear at 39%, Extreme Fear 12%, Neutral 17%, Greed 32%, Extreme Greed 0% — confirming 2026 as a year tilted toward Fear/Neutral readings with essentially no Extreme Greed episodes. - [2026-09-08] Three prior Kalshi "Fear & Greed Index on [date]" markets have already settled this cycle (Sep 4, Sep 11, Sep 18, 2026), each a same design (Fear vs not) with an independent model tracked against market price by Octagon AI, per its odds tracker; two of the three most recent snapshots (Sep 11 and Sep 18) resolved with market pricing well above 25%, consistent with the index sitting in Fear on those dates. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/topics/fear-and-greed-index - [2026-08-05] A separate independent "audited v2" Fear & Greed style tracker (thetrading.tools) notes "the fearful zones preceded the best average outcomes, while Extreme Greed preceded the weakest — Extreme Fear produced roughly 1.7× baseline three-month returns" , a mean-reversion pattern relevant to how long Fear readings tend to persist before reverting. - [2026-09-04] MacroMicro's series shows the index near neutral (43.77) on Sep 4, 2026, before declining through mid-September into the high-20s/mid-30s Fear zone by Sep 17–22, illustrating a fast multi-week slide from Neutral into Fear. https://en.macromicro.me/series/22748/cnn-fear-and-greed BOTTOM LINE: Historically the CNN Fear & Greed Index has spent roughly 27–42% of all trading days in "Fear" (more if Extreme Fear is included), but the trailing-12-month and 2026 year-to-date base rates are elevated (Fear ~39-40%, plus 12-15% Extreme Fear), and the index is already sitting at 34 (Fear) as of Sep 22, 2026 after a Fed-driven selloff — so absent a sharp rally, the base-rate/outside-view evidence favors continuation in the Fear zone through Oct 9, 2026. NOT FOUND: Exact current Kalshi order-book/implied probability for the specific "Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026" contract (the market page returned only boilerplate, no live price); a precise multi-week persistence/transition-probability table (e.g., probability of remaining in Fear N trading days after entering the zone) was not located.

**Strongest YES case: continued macro/geopolitical stress keeps the index in Fear through Oct 9, sustained by a hawkish Fed and an active Iran war energy shock.** - [2026-09-16] The Fed delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023, raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% , a hawkish surprise-in-substance move that directly feeds the Fear & Greed Index's volatility and safe-haven components. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The dot plot signaled more tightening ahead: the September Summary of Economic Projections' dot plot showed the median FOMC member expecting an additional 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 , meaning the "higher for longer" narrative persists past Oct 9. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-16] Fed Chair Warsh's tone reinforced risk-off positioning: after Warsh struck a more hawkish note in his Jackson Hole speech last month, the Fed's September statement leaned in a similar direction, signaling a continued willingness to take action until inflation confidence improves. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-16] Market reaction to the hike was negative into the close: major indexes initially rose on the news, while Treasury yields flattened with the 10-year Treasury yield near 19-year highs. But after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at his press conference, major indexes surrendered earlier gains and then plunged with half an hour left in the session — exactly the kind of late-day reversal that depresses the Momentum/Volatility subcomponents CNN tracks. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-17] The Dow fell over 600 points the day after the hike, with sentiment tracker confirming the CNN gauge currently stands at 34, reflecting Fear in investor sentiment today as of Sept 22 — a level that has held even as equities partly rebounded, suggesting sticky Fear rather than a one-day blip. https://feargreedmeter.com/fear-and-greed-index - [2026-09-16] The war-driven energy shock is the structural driver keeping inflation (and thus rate-hike/Fear risk) elevated: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its first increase since 2023...as part of an effort aimed at combating inflation brought on by spiraling oil prices and other factors . https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-21] Household-level cost data confirms the shock is ongoing and worsening: As of September 21, 2026, the average additional cost to American households is $727.43. By the end of fall this number will be $1067.46 , implying the fuel/inflation drag on sentiment will still be building by Oct 9. https://itep.org/iran-war-fuel-cost/ - [2026-09-16] A second consumer-facing inflation squeeze is documented: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped this week to its highest in 19 years, threatening to intensify affordability challenges for consumers as borrowing costs rise... The total bill per household since the U.S.-Iran conflict began is around $1,760 — high yields directly pressure the Safe Haven Demand and Market Volatility subcomponents toward Fear. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html - [2026-09-17] Consumer surveys show inflation anxiety broadening: Slightly over 29% of respondents to the University of Michigan's closely followed consumer sentiment survey mentioned gas prices in September. That's up from around 12% and 6% readings in the same month of 2024 and 2025, respectively , a sentiment deterioration mechanism independent of the stock indices themselves. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/oil-prices-treasury-yields-consumers-iran.html - [scheduled] Two Fed-relevant data prints land squarely inside the window before Oct 9: Sep 30, 2026 · GDP Third Estimate...Oct 02, 2026 · Monthly Employment Report...Report for September 2026 , either of which — if inflation-hot or labor-soft — could trigger the kind of rate/yield scare that has repeatedly pushed the index into Fear this cycle. https://fearandgreedgraph.com/ - [2026-09-16] Futures markets are already leaning toward another hike this year, keeping the "higher-for-longer" fear narrative alive through Oct 9: futures markets were pricing a 42.2% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting...markets were pricing 52.8% odds of another hike at the December meeting — anticipatory tightening pricing that keeps yields and volatility elevated. https://www.nerdwallet.com/finance/news/fed-sept-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a concrete, ongoing mechanism — a hawkish Fed hike plus an active Iran-war energy/inflation shock — that has already pushed and held the CNN index in Fear (34 as of Sept 22) after a sharp post-Fed selloff, with GDP and jobs data due before Oct 9 giving fresh opportunities for the shock to re-assert itself; if this regime persists without a strong dovish surprise, Fear is the more probable state on Oct 9. NOT FOUND: Live Kalshi order-book pricing for the specific KXFEAR-26OCT09 contract; confirmation of the Oct 2 jobs report or Sept 30 GDP outcome (not yet released as of report date).

- [2026-09-22] The VIX closed at 14.25, down 4.17% on the day, sitting near its 52-week low of 13.38 (Dec 24, 2025) and far below its 52-week high of 35.30 — a low-volatility reading that mechanically pushes the "Market Volatility" component of the CNN index toward Greed, not Fear. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ - [2026-09-18] Independent VIX tracking confirms the multi-day decline: the VIX fell to 14.81 from 17.71 on Sep 16 and 17.84 on Sep 10, and remains "relatively low and below the long-term midpoint" despite lingering macro uncertainty. https://streetstats.finance/markets/volatility - [2026-09-21] The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% Monday and "pulled within 0.4% of its record," while stocks rallied worldwide after oil and bond yields retreated from the prior week's spike — a sharp risk-on reversal just days before the Oct 9 resolution window opens. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/21/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq/fcebe438-b5fb-11f1-94cb-d3d8f22a8c8b_story.html - [2026-09-22] The Nasdaq Composite closed at a fresh record high (rising to a record on tech/semiconductor strength) while oil sank below $100/barrel, easing inflation-cost pressure on markets — both bullish inputs (momentum, breadth) that argue against the index staying pinned in Fear through Oct 9. https://eurasiabusinessnews.com/2026/09/22/stock-market-today-oil-sinks-below-100-lifting-tech-stocks-and-sending-nasdaq-to-record/ - [2026-09-22] CNBC's market column notes the S&P 500 "has gone nowhere since June 1, but hasn't slipped more than 3% from a record high" and has spent nearly the entire period since Aug. 4 near that day's record-high rally range — a resilient, shallow-drawdown regime historically associated with Neutral-to-Greed sentiment rather than persistent Fear. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/santoli-the-sp-500-is-within-striking-distance-of-record-as-bull-relies-on-familiar-leadership.html - [2026-09-21] The prior Monday's rally (Sept 21 session) saw the Nasdaq jump 2.26% to a record close and the S&P gain 1.49%, with Intel popping 12%, AMD roughly 10% (crossing $1T market cap), and Meta up nearly 12% — a broad-based melt-up that, if sustained, would lift the momentum, breadth and price-strength sub-components that are currently the weakest links dragging the composite score down. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html - [2026-09-10] A U.S. Bank research note observed the S&P 500 "reached an all-time high in mid-August" and that "the 2026 rally has expanded beyond the largest information technology and communication services companies," with 10 of 11 sectors positive year-to-date as of Sept 10 — evidence the underlying bull trend (a Greed-favoring backdrop) never fully broke down despite the September Fear dip. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/is-a-market-correction-coming.html - [2026-04-20 mechanism example, illustrating index sensitivity] A prior 2026 episode showed how quickly the composite can flip: when "the market momentum, put and call options, and safe haven demand categories all currently carry an extreme-greed rating" while only one or two sub-components lagged in Fear, the overall index swung to Greed within days of a rally resuming — the same mechanical pattern now in motion with VIX collapsing and equities at records. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fear-greed-index-flipped-greed-191530552.html - [2026-09-04] Kalshi's own resolution history shows the "Fear" outcome is not a foregone default: colleagues' data shows the Sept 4 contract still resolved Fear at 35.23, but the underlying index has round-tripped from Neutral (55, per one tracker) in the prior month back to Fear and could just as easily round-trip back out given the current risk-on tape. - [general, mechanism] Because "Fear" is defined as a narrow 25–44 band on the CNN scale, and the index reportedly sat at 34–35 on Sep 22 (per colleagues' reports), only a modest ~10-point rally-driven move — plausible given the VIX collapse and record-high equity tape documented above — is needed to push the reading into the 45+ "Neutral" zone by Oct 9, which would resolve the market NO. - [2026-07-02 rules] Under Kalshi's standard contract language for this series, the market resolves strictly on "the first value update after 4:00 PM ET" on the resolution date; a single-day print in Neutral/Greed territory at that snapshot — even amid a choppy month — is sufficient for a NO resolution regardless of the broader trend. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on a documented, currently-unfolding risk-on reversal: VIX near 52-week lows, S&P within 0.4% of a record, and Nasdaq printing fresh record highs as of Sept 21–22 — a combination that mechanically pressures several Fear & Greed sub-components toward Neutral/Greed and could plausibly lift the composite out of the narrow 25–44 Fear band before the Oct 9 snapshot, especially since the index needs only a modest move to cross that threshold. NOT FOUND: A live, verified Kalshi order-book price specifically for the "KXFEAR-26OCT09" contract (Kalshi's market pages returned only boilerplate on fetch); a precise current breakdown of all seven CNN sub-component scores as of Sept 22–23, 2026 (only partial component data from third-party trackers was available).