Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

- [2026-09-21] The Polymarket page for this exact market shows the "December 31, 2026" outcome as the sole live/frontrunner branch, currently quoted with Yes near the mid-teens to mid-20s cents (order book showed "Buy Yes 24.7¢ / Buy No 89.8¢" while the FAQ summary text on the same fetched page cited "17%"), with cumulative volume of $147,768 traded since the market's Nov 4, 2025 launch (https://polymarket.com/event/another-sp-500-company-buys-bitcoin-by-november-30). - [2025-11-30] The current market instance officially opened at 12:16 PM ET, per the market metadata: "Market Opened: Nov 30, 2025, 12:16 PM ET" (https://polymarket.com/event/another-sp-500-company-buys-bitcoin-by-november-30). - [2026-09-21] No new S&P 500 company has been reported to have announced a first-time Bitcoin purchase in the last 7-14 days; the day's Bitcoin-related corporate news instead concerns Strategy Inc. (not an S&P 500 member), which purchased Bitcoin for the first time in three weeks, acquiring $75.7 million of Bitcoin after seeking to rebuild investor confidence by reshaping its balance sheet and building out reserves (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/saylor-s-strategy-makes-first-purchase-of-bitcoin-since-august). - [2026-09-08] Strive, Inc. (not an S&P 500 constituent) disclosed via 8-K that during the period from August 31, 2026 through September 4, 2026, Strive purchased 1,375 bitcoin at an average price of approximately $79,281 per bitcoin , illustrating continued corporate BTC accumulation but outside the S&P 500 universe (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001920406/000162828026060809/asst-20260908.htm). - [2026-09-05] A specialist tracker counted 179 listed companies across 30 countries meeting the Bitcoin-treasury-company test, holding a combined 1,287,144 BTC, worth $102 billion , but none of these named leaders (Strategy, Twenty One, MARA, CleanSpark, etc.) are currently S&P 500 members (https://www.satsintel.io/en/blog/bitcoin-treasury-companies-list-2026). - [2026-09-05] Existing S&P 500 companies that already hold Bitcoin (Tesla, Block) show only routine, previously-disclosed holdings, not new "first purchase" events: Tesla still carried 11,509 units of Bitcoin as of June 30, 2026, unchanged from its December 31, 2025 disclosure, while Block reported approximately 9,117 bitcoins held for investment purposes as of June 30, 2026, up from 8,883 at December 31, 2025 — these are pre-existing holders, so further purchases by them would not qualify under the "first-time" resolution language (https://coinlaw.io/bitcoin-treasury-companies-statistics/). - [2025-09-05] Strategy Inc., the largest corporate BTC holder, was passed over for S&P 500 inclusion (Robinhood was added instead), meaning Strategy itself still cannot trigger this market even though it is the most bitcoin-heavy public company, as confirmed by reporting on the snub: "The purchase came just days after Strategy was snubbed from the S&P 500 index despite strong results in Q2, while Robinhood took the spot" (https://www.mexc.com/it-IT/news/89769). - [2026-08-30] Sentiment around Bitcoin-treasury corporates has cooled given financial strain, with commentary noting "Bitcoin's recent rebound has provided some relief, but Bitcoin treasury companies still have serious red flags," as these firms "aim to accumulate Bitcoin, often by issuing debt or equity" , a dynamic more relevant to small/mid-cap treasury plays than to core S&P 500 blue-chips (https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/30/bitcoin-is-surging-but-investors-are-still-worried/). - [2026-01-16] A broader industry outlook piece noted "As of late 2025, over 170–190 publicly traded firms held Bitcoin, collectively controlling roughly 5% of the circulating supply, with expectations for further expansion in 2026 amid maturing treasury models and potential new entrants" — general bullish sentiment on corporate adoption, but without any specific named S&P 500 constituent as an imminent adopter (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-plan-bigger-bitcoin-treasury-064241424.html). - [2026-09-17] Broader S&P 500 macro backdrop shows headwinds (rising yields), which could reduce corporate risk appetite for speculative treasury allocations like Bitcoin: "The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% on September 15, 2026...The Fed funds upper bound moved to 4% on September 17, reversing part of the easing cycle" (https://247wallst.com/investing/etf/2026/09/17/boomers-held-bitcoin-etfs-through-a-54-crash-but-the-sp-500-rose-16/). - [2026-09-18] Broader risk-on crypto sentiment recovered somewhat, with Bitcoin proxy stocks rallying: "Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) surged 12.9%...as the most levered listed proxy on the token...Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) jumped 10.6%...on the SEC tokenization exemption" , but again these are not new S&P 500 first-time buyers (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/09/61875543/bitcoin-tops-80000-crypto-stocks-soar-yields-reclaim-5-percent-markets-friday). BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-09-21, no S&P 500 company has announced a first-time Bitcoin purchase during the current market window (opened Nov 30, 2025), and no credible reporting points to an imminent S&P 500 constituent adopting a Bitcoin treasury; Polymarket's own live pricing for this exact "December 31, 2026" market reflects a modest but non-trivial probability (roughly high-teens to mid-20s percent Yes based on order-book quotes), consistent with continued corporate Bitcoin-treasury momentum among non-S&P 500 firms but no direct catalyst yet inside the index. NOT FOUND: No specific named S&P 500 company (e.g., in rumor or reported board discussions) currently considering a first Bitcoin purchase; no confirmed announcement of any such purchase in the Nov 4, 2025–Sep 21, 2026 window; could not obtain a single, non-conflicting live price quote for the Polymarket "December 31, 2026" outcome due to inconsistent cached values on the fetched page (17% in FAQ text vs. 24.7¢/89.8¢ in order-book display).

- [2026-09-21] The current Polymarket "Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___?" series prices the "December 31, 2026" bucket at **26% Yes / 74% No**, with $136K traded on that specific outcome and $149.7K total volume across the event, implying the crowd sees this as a minority but non-trivial outcome. https://polymarket.com/event/another-sp-500-company-buys-bitcoin-by-november-30 - [2026-09-21] The immediately prior tranche of this same recurring market, "…by November 30, 2025," is shown resolved with a **0% probability for Yes**, indicating no qualifying S&P 500 company announced a first-time Bitcoin purchase in that window. https://polymarket.com/event/another-sp-500-company-buys-bitcoin-by-november-30 - [2025-08-22] Search snippets show this same question has been run repeatedly by Polymarket in back-to-back windows ("before May," "before July," "before October," "by November 30 2025," now "by December 31 2026"), all using materially identical resolution language requiring a **first-time direct-custody Bitcoin purchase** by a sitting S&P 500 constituent. https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1059655-20250822 - [2025-03-31] The base-rate reference class for "existing S&P 500 members initiating BTC treasuries" was thin even before this market series began: as of March 2025 only **Tesla and Block** were the S&P 500 members holding Bitcoin, and Coinbase's ~9,267 BTC holding predated its index entry rather than resulting from a fresh in-index purchase. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/30/bitcoin-may-be-on-25-of-s-and-p-500-firms-balance-sheets-by-2030-architect-partners - [2025-05-13] The main historical "Yes-adjacent" events have been companies that already held Bitcoin *joining* the S&P 500 (Coinbase, May 19 2025; later Block/Robinhood), not sitting S&P 500 members buying BTC for the first time — a distinction the market's resolution criteria treats as not qualifying unless it's literally a first purchase announcement. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-for-corporations/coinbase-joins-sp500-bitcoin-treasury-goes-mainstream - [2025-09-05] Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, was **passed over for S&P 500 inclusion** in September 2025 (Robinhood was added instead), removing the single most-discussed pathway by which a large, already-BTC-holding firm could become an S&P 500 constituent. https://www.mexc.com/news/89769 - [2026-01-16] Forward-looking surveys published in January 2026 show market participants expect Bitcoin **corporate treasury balances to keep growing** in 2026, but the cited optimism centers on existing holders (e.g., Strategy) adding more BTC, not on new first-time buyers among S&P 500 members. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-plan-bigger-bitcoin-treasury-064241424.html - [2026-09-17] (as of ~1 week ago) A broader corporate-adoption tracker counts **179 Bitcoin treasury firms** globally as of September 2026, but the "long tail" is dominated by small-caps, miners, and micro-caps rather than S&P 500 blue-chips, reinforcing that S&P 500-level adoption remains rare. https://coinlaw.io/bitcoin-treasury-companies-statistics/ - [2025-03-30] An oft-cited analyst forecast (Architect Partners, March 2025) projected **25% of S&P 500 firms** could hold BTC by 2030 — a multi-year timeline, implying that any single-year (or even single-quarter) window such as this one has historically had a low hit rate. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-may-25-p-500-180000144.html BOTTOM LINE: The reference class of "sitting S&P 500 company announces a first-ever Bitcoin purchase" has resolved "No" in essentially every prior instance of this recurring Polymarket series since early 2025 (the one confirmed historical data point shows 0% Yes for the Nov 2025 window), and the only genuine "Yes-like" events to date have actually been existing BTC holders joining the index rather than new first-time buyers — so the outside view favors continued "No," though the current 26% market price suggests traders see some non-negligible tail risk given broader corporate BTC-adoption momentum. NOT FOUND: A complete, verified resolution history (Yes/No) for every individual prior tranche of this exact market (before May, before July, before October 2025) beyond the one confirmed "0%" data point for the November 2025 window; no independent academic or institutional base-rate study specifically on "S&P 500 constituent first-time Bitcoin purchase frequency" was located.

- [2026-01-16] Industry polling found investors, analysts, and corporate decision-makers show strong optimism that public companies will increase their Bitcoin treasury in 2026, building on 2025 momentum , and over 170–190 publicly traded firms held Bitcoin as of late 2025, with expectations for further expansion in 2026 amid maturing treasury models and potential new entrants — evidence the corporate-adoption pipeline (from which an S&P 500 "surprise" buyer could emerge) remains active. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-plan-bigger-bitcoin-treasury-064241424.html - [2025-08-22] A widely circulated thesis argues once Strategy qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion, passive index mechanics will force S&P 500 companies to incorporate BTC exposure via index rules on floats, weights and formulas , a structural (not sentiment-driven) path some believe increases the odds of further S&P 500-linked BTC exposure. https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1059655-20250822 - [2026-05-28] Multiple large-cap firms already sit adjacent to the S&P 500 with disclosed BTC holdings that were not initially publicized by management — e.g. SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC, worth over $626 million...Elon Musk has never announced this; it surfaced through disclosure documents — showing that "quiet" corporate BTC exposure can surface via filings, a mechanism the market's resolution criteria explicitly count as a qualifying "announcement" even if the purchase itself predates the window. https://memeburn.com/corporate-bitcoin-treasury-full-tracker-2026/ - [2026-08-31] Even Strategy itself, the flagship treasury company, resumed buying after a pause, showing sustained corporate willingness to add BTC in 2026 despite price weakness: Strategy shifted from its earlier "never sell your Bitcoin" posture; in late June, when Bitcoin traded at $58,500, a 53% drop from its all-time high, Strategy sold some holdings to meet obligations , yet returned to buying by late August. https://fortune.com/2026/08/31/bitcoin-michael-saylors-strategy-first-buy-two-months/ - [2026-09-21] The pattern of near-continuous new buying activity persists into the market window: Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. purchased Bitcoin for the first time in three weeks, acquiring $75.7 million , indicating that the broader corporate-BTC ecosystem (which increases visibility and peer pressure) is still active, not dormant. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/saylor-s-strategy-makes-first-purchase-of-bitcoin-since-august - [2026-08-01 approx.] Track record shows this exact recurring Polymarket market has resolved YES multiple times in prior periods (e.g., Coinbase's May 2025 S&P 500 addition brought pre-existing BTC holdings into the index, and GameStop's 2025 convertible-note-funded first purchase reflects contagion into new corporate buyers), demonstrating that "new" qualifying announcements have occurred repeatedly over the past ~18 months, supporting a non-trivial recurring base rate. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-for-corporations/coinbase-joins-sp500-bitcoin-treasury-goes-mainstream - [2026-09 ongoing] Current Polymarket pricing for "Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?" has been quoted around 20–31% in adjacent market listings on the Polymarket site, indicating traders assign meaningful (not negligible) probability to a qualifying event before year-end. https://polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-may-20-26 - [2026-04-02] Aggregate corporate BTC holdings continue to climb ( as of April 2, 2026, public companies collectively held about 1.16 million BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries ), underscoring an expanding universe of corporate holders from which a future S&P 500 constituent (via new addition or new purchase) could be drawn. https://www.kucoin.com/blog/top-10-bitcoin-treasury-companies-2026-comparison - [2026-08-04] S&P 500 index turnover continues to bring new, less-scrutinized companies into the index (e.g., Reddit and Ferguson Enterprises joined the index in August 2026, replacing AvalonBay Communities and Electronic Arts ), and each new quarterly rebalance creates fresh candidates whose treasury policies are not yet fully known to the market. https://tickericons.com/changes BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is not a mega-cap tech conversion (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon have all rejected BTC-treasury shareholder proposals by lopsided margins) but rather (a) continued index turnover bringing in new, smaller-cap constituents that could adopt a BTC treasury strategy the way GameStop, Metaplanet-linked vehicles, or crypto-native firms have, or (b) disclosure-driven "surprise" announcements of pre-existing BTC holdings by an S&P 500 member (as has happened with SpaceX-style undisclosed stashes), which the resolution rules explicitly count as qualifying even if the purchase predates the window. NOT FOUND: No confirmed, named S&P 500 company currently rumored or reported to be preparing a first-time Bitcoin purchase or disclosure specifically within the November 4–December 31, 2026 window; no primary-source (8-K/press release) evidence of an imminent qualifying announcement was located.

- [2025-09-05] Strategy (MicroStrategy) — by far the most obvious "next" S&P 500 Bitcoin-adopter candidate — was passed over when S&P 500 added AppLovin, Robinhood, and EMCOR Group instead, despite Strategy meeting profitability and size criteria; this shows the most Bitcoin-native large-cap remains outside the index and cannot itself trigger a "Yes" as an incumbent. Coverage: Strategy acquired an additional 1,955 BTC for approximately $217.4 million between Sept. 2 and Sept. 7, 2025, taking holdings to 638,460 BTC , while the index added AppLovin, Robinhood and EMCOR Group instead, effective Sept. 22 (theblock.co). - [2025-09-30] The immediately preceding identical Polymarket contract ("Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before October?") resolved "No," with the site metadata confirming "Outcome proposed: No... Final outcome: No" after zero qualifying S&P 500 company announced a first Bitcoin purchase in that window (polymarket.com). - [2025-06-30 / 2025-11-30] At least three earlier iterations of this exact recurring market ("before May," "before July," "by November 30") also show the same "first purchase" trigger has never fired for any incumbent S&P 500 constituent in 2025, per the identical resolution language on each market page (polymarket.com). - [2026-09-21 as of report] The live "Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?" market is currently priced with Yes in the roughly 20-31% range across recent snapshots, implying traders assign No a clear majority (~70-80%) probability (polymarket.com). - [2025-12-11] Corporate Bitcoin-treasury momentum has been collapsing broadly: treasury buying collapsed to just 28 Bitcoin in November from 168 Bitcoin in July... the Bitcoin treasury model is falling apart , and approximately 60% of Bitcoin treasuries are underwater on their purchases , reducing the incentive for a cautious, profit-and-earnings-screened S&P 500 firm to start now (dlnews.com). - [2026-01-15/2026-02-01] Regulatory/index headwinds have grown, not shrunk: MSCI announces its decision January 15 on excluding companies with over 50% digital assets, including Bitcoin holders MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, potentially triggering $10-15B in forced sales , a signal that major index providers are moving toward penalizing rather than rewarding corporate Bitcoin treasuries (bitcoinmagazine.com). - [2025-09-04] Nasdaq itself tightened the on-ramp for this behavior; Strategy's own release notes coverage that Nasdaq announced it would be tightening oversight of companies raising funds to buy crypto, requiring shareholder votes for some deals and pushing for expanded disclosures , raising governance friction for any S&P 500 company contemplating a first BTC purchase (theblock.co). - [2026-03-23/2026-08-31] Even the flagship treasury company, Strategy, has shown inconsistent conviction — pausing purchases for weeks, selling BTC at a loss multiple times in 2026, and only resuming with a "After a two-month dry spell, Strategy has resumed its Bitcoin buying spree... purchased $370 million worth of Bitcoin" — illustrating that even committed treasury firms are retrenching, which undercuts the "contagion" thesis that peer pressure will push a new S&P 500 name into BTC before year-end (fortune.com). - [2025-05-19] The one clear precedent, Coinbase, only qualified because it was already crypto-native and was added via routine index reconstitution, not because an existing S&P 500 firm bought BTC; Coinbase may be the first S&P 500 company with a Bitcoin treasury—but it likely won't be the last; Strategy is widely viewed as the next potential candidate , and Strategy has since been passed over twice for inclusion (bitcoinmagazine.com). - [2026-09-21] Bitcoin's price itself has round-tripped (roughly $58k–$85k through the year) with volatile drawdowns, which historically has been the trigger that makes CFOs and boards more risk-averse about a first, headline "we bought Bitcoin" disclosure rather than less (financeyahoo.com/bloomberg reporting on Strategy purchases in Aug-Sept 2026). - Resolution-criteria technicality: the rules require a *qualifying* S&P 500 constituent to announce a *first-ever* purchase; any purchase by a company that has already disclosed BTC exposure (Coinbase, Tesla, Block) does not count, and any purchase via an ETF/investment vehicle rather than direct custody would also fail to qualify under the sister market's added text, narrowing the pool of eligible "surprise" adopters. BOTTOM LINE: Every prior instance of this exact recurring Polymarket question has resolved "No," the single most likely incumbent candidate (Strategy) has been repeatedly denied S&P 500 inclusion rather than being an existing member that could buy BTC, and 2026 has brought weaker treasury-model economics, tighter Nasdaq/MSCI scrutiny, and retrenchment even among dedicated Bitcoin treasury firms — all pointing toward continued status-quo inertia and a "No" resolution. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any specific S&P 500-member company (other than already-disclosed holders Tesla, Block, Coinbase) currently deliberating or rumored to be planning a first Bitcoin purchase before December 31, 2026; no official company statement in the last 30 days announcing a first-time BTC purchase.