Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in July 2027?

- [2026-09-20] Ornn's Compute Price Index (OCPI), the primary settlement source for Kalshi's H100 markets, shows the H100 SXM settling at $2.65 per GPU-hour, equivalent to roughly $1,907.70 per GPU-month. https://data.ornn.com/preview - [2026-09-16] Ornn's X account reported an H100 renting for $2.62 an hour, down 11.5 percent from $2.96 on September 9 , indicating short-term volatility but firmly below the $3.75 strike. - [2026-09-15] Ornn reported that over the prior month the H100 fell 10.9 percent, from $2.84 to $2.53 , while B200 prices rose sharply — showing continued softening for H100 even as newer chips tighten. - [2026-09-16] AIMultiple's independently tracked Cloud GPU Rental Price Index found H100's September on-demand median is $3.25 per GPU-hour, compared with $4.40 for H200 and $1.76 for A100 , a separate confirmation that H100 pricing sits well under $3.75. - [2026-08-25] A separate AIMultiple-based tracker cited a median H100 rental price of about $3.38/hour, down from more than $7 an hour in early 2024 , underscoring a multi-year downtrend. - [2026-09-08] Jarvislabs' own on-demand rate for H100 SXM was $2.69 per GPU-hour to rent on Jarvislabs, billed by the minute , consistent with the sub-$3 range seen across most neoclouds. - [2026-09-20] Aggregator getdeploying.com reports As of September 20, 2026, the median on-demand price is $3.36 per GPU per hour across 38 providers with a priced on-demand config , still below the $3.75 threshold but closer to it than Ornn's settlement figure. - [2026-09-16] Ornn also noted a widening premium for reserved/hyperscaler capacity: Nebius's list prices sit well above OCPI spot, with $NBIS's new rates sit 4 to 49 percent above what those chips rent for on OCPI, H200 closest at $5.40 against $5.19 and H100 widest at $4.50 against $3.03 , and Nebius announced it is raising on-demand GPU prices effective Oct. 1... H100: $3.85 → $4.50 (+17%) — a notable exception where a major provider is hiking rates well above $3.75, though this is list price, not the spot/index benchmark Kalshi resolves on. - [2026-07-22] Kalshi's own research desk, using its market-implied forward curves (the basis for pricing markets like this one), stated Kalshi's forward curves are live now for Nvidia B200, H200, and A100 chips... The curves for the A100, H100, and H200 stay flat into 2027 , implying the market currently expects H100 pricing to remain near current low levels rather than rising toward $3.75+. - [2026-07-15] Coverage of Kalshi's compute markets noted that in early coverage of the index, Ornn reported H100 compute prices averaging around $1.70 per hour in March 2026, showing prices have actually risen somewhat since spring 2026 (to the current ~$2.65) but remain far below $3.75. - [2026-09-21] No Kalshi market page for the specific July 2027 H100 monthly contract could be located in current search results; existing located Kalshi H100 contracts were for March/April 2026 and Q2 2026, both resolving at much lower strikes (e.g., $1.47). BOTTOM LINE: As of September 2026, the primary settlement source (Ornn's OCPI) has H100 spot pricing around $2.65/hr, roughly 30% below the $3.75 strike, with independent trackers (AIMultiple, getdeploying.com) showing medians of $3.25–$3.38, all still under the threshold; Kalshi's own forward curve for H100 is flat into 2027, suggesting the market does not currently expect a rise above $3.75 by July 2027. NOT FOUND: The specific Kalshi market page/ticker for the July 2027 H100 monthly contract (to see live trader-implied odds or the exact forward-curve value for July 2027) could not be located in search results.

**Reference class & recent trajectory of H100 hourly pricing** - [2026-09-16] Aggregating 75 providers, AIMultiple's index shows H100's September on-demand median is $3.25 per GPU-hour, compared with $4.40 for H200 and $1.76 for A100. Reserved pricing is close to on-demand: H100 has a smaller $0.13 gap between its $3.10 reserved and $3.23 on-demand medians. https://aimultiple.com/gpu-index - [2026-09-21] GetDeploying (54 providers, updated same day) puts the market median even closer to the strike: As of September 20, 2026, the median on-demand price has risen about 7% over the past 90 days to $3.36 per GPU per hour, and about 12% over the past 12 months. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h100 - [2026-01-12] Longer base rate: H100 prices [have dropped] from $8 per hour to $2.85-3.50 per hour—a 64% decline from peak levels in late 2024...The Silicon Data H100 Rental Index stood at $2.36 in June 2025, down from $3.06 in September 2024, marking a 23% decline in less than a year. https://introl.com/blog/gpu-cloud-price-collapse-h100-market-december-2025 - [2025-12-21] Origin of the price cycle: Since its launch in mid 2022, the NVIDIA H100 GPU has undergone one of the fastest and most dramatic price corrections in modern infrastructure history. Early rental prices routinely exceeded $7–$10 per GPU‑hour... By late 2025, however, the same H100 GPUs across non-hyperscale and marketplace providers are widely available for $2–$4 per hour. https://www.silicondata.com/blog/h100-rental-price-over-time - [2026-01-09] A documented reversal/spike episode: Our GPU Rental Index revealed a startling 10% price jump for H100 rentals between December 9, 2025 and January 6, 2026. Hourly rates climbed from $2.00 to $2.20 in just four weeks. This shows the series can move sharply in either direction on short notice. https://www.silicondata.com/blog/h100-price-spike - [2026-04-06] Reserved/contract pricing rose materially even as spot/on-demand fell in places: H100 1-year GPU rental contract pricing has shot up almost 40% from a low of $1.70/hr/GPU in October 2025 to $2.35/hr/GPU by March 2026. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-great-gpu-shortage-rental-capacity - [2026-08-16] Cross-provider dispersion remains huge, complicating any single "the price": Lambda's 8×H100 "Lambda Cloud" instances list at $2.99/GPU-hr for SXM (NVL3) usage (dividing $23.92/hr billed for the 8-GPU instance). https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/h100-rental-prices-cloud-comparison - [2026-09-21] Live listings pulled directly show the spread: on GetDeploying, providers range from $1.35 per GPU per hour from Lium... Cheapest verified in stock on other billing types: reserved $1.53 (1 mo) from HyperAI and spot $0.66 from Vast.ai up to several dollars for hyperscaler/dedicated configs, illustrating that "the" average is a constructed index number, not a single market clearing price. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h100 - [2026-08 (dated)] A synthesis piece frames the overall two-year pattern: Nvidia executives are now telling three overlapping stories at once: H100 rental costs have fallen by roughly half since early 2024, newer chips like the H200 and B200 command a steep premium, and the entire market remains bottlenecked by memory, not by silicon. https://shattered.io/h100-h200-b200-cloud-gpu-pricing-2026/ - No tracker or forecaster found publishing an explicit numeric projection for H100 pricing specifically in July 2027; all sources describe historical/current levels only (through Sep 2026), with commentary suggesting continued gradual softening as B200/B300 capacity absorbs high-end training demand, pushing H100 further into a "mid-tier, inference-focused" commoditized role (per Spheron, 2026-08). BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is a GPU-rental price series that fell roughly 60-75% from 2023-24 peaks (~$7-10/hr) to a 2025 trough (~$1.70-2.85/hr median), then rebounded modestly through 2026 to a current median near $3.25-3.36/hr — already close to the $3.75 threshold — with documented short-term spikes of 10-40% in reserved/contract pricing driven by supply tightness; this base rate shows the series is capable of both sharp declines and sharp rebounds over 3-12 month windows, so a July 2027 outcome above $3.75 is plausible but not assured given the strong secular downward pressure from new capacity (B-series, more neoclouds) historically dominating over shorter-term tightness episodes. NOT FOUND: No explicit market forecast, analyst prediction, or prediction-market history for H100 pricing specifically in July 2027; no long-run (2+ year) track record of similar Kalshi/forecasting markets on GPU rental prices to compute a historical "how often did such markets resolve YES."

**Strongest YES case: memory-driven supply shock + capacity-sellout dynamics are already pushing transacted H100 prices toward and briefly above the $3.75 threshold well ahead of the July 2027 resolution date, and NVIDIA itself says the driving shortage will intensify into 2027.** - [2026-09-07] Ornn's OCPI-H100 transacted index printed $3.28/hour, representing a 30-day gain of 19% , and a separate report had it at US$3.28 on 8 September, up 22 per cent month on month , showing the index can move sharply toward $3.75 within weeks. https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262155850-nvidia-h100-ornn-rental-surge-22-percent-jensen-huang-gpu-asset-tradingkey - [2026-09-16] Nebius (a major neocloud) announced it is raising on-demand GPU prices effective October, moving H100: $3.85 → $4.50 (+17%) — a first-party hyperscaler-adjacent list price already above the $3.75 strike, months ahead of the market's settlement window. https://x.com/OrnnExchange - [2026-08-26] On NVIDIA's earnings call, management described "extreme pricing conditions in memory" and said the increases had "exceeded our prior expectations and are headed even higher into next year" , i.e., into 2027 — directly supporting continued upward cost pressure into the July 2027 window. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/11/nvidias-export-ban-backfires-as-chinese-competitors-raise-prices-50/ - [2026-09-20] Even after a pullback, Ornn's own primary index still settles at $2.65 per GPU-hour on the Ornn Compute Price Index, as of September 20, 2026 — but this followed a documented spike to $3.28 just two weeks earlier and an 11.5% single-week swing, confirming the series has enough volatility to clear $3.75 on a bad supply week. https://data.ornn.com/preview - [2025-10 to 2026-03] SemiAnalysis's committed-capacity data shows structural tightening: One-year H100 contract pricing climbed almost 40%, from a low of $1.70 per GPU-hour in October 2025 to $2.35 by March 2026, according to SemiAnalysis , with on-demand capacity rental prices rose in early 2026 because on-demand capacity effectively sold out... Available on-demand capacity was booked out, with teams that locked in early holding onto it even as rates climbed . https://akash.network/the-bid/h100-rental-price-2026-cost-per-hour/ - [2026-04] SemiAnalysis's official Spot-Contract Composite Index (fetched directly) shows on-demand H100 was "✕ Sold Out" for Feb–Apr 2026 and 1-year contract pricing rose to $2.10–2.70 by April 2026 from a trough near $1.45 in late 2025 — confirming a genuine structural re-tightening trend, not just noise. https://gpu-index.semianalysis.com/ - [2026-03] China demand is adding to global GPU scarcity: Chinese firms collectively have orders in for 2M+ H200 chips against Nvidia's ~700K available inventory, compelling Nvidia to commission additional TSMC 4nm production capacity — a supply chain expansion whose costs will ripple into global cloud GPU pricing by Q3 2026 , a mechanism that can spill over onto Hopper-class (H100) pricing as buyers compete for the same constrained fabrication capacity. https://businessanalytics.substack.com/p/chinas-billion-dollar-gpu-scramble - [2026-01] A parallel "demand spillover" pattern is already visible in consumer GPUs, where the price of the RTX 5090...has effectively doubled from its launch MSRP of around $2,000 to over $4,000 in the spot market. This phenomenon...is a direct consequence of the extreme supply constraints on data center accelerators like the H100/H200 , illustrating that acute component shortages can rapidly push GPU compute prices well above trend. https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-gpu-prices-double-as-ai-demand-overwhelms-supply-chain - [2026-08] Historically, H100 composite pricing has traded well above $3.75 within the last two years — SemiAnalysis's own index shows $4.77 in 2Q2024 and $6.62 in 2H2023 — establishing that a print above $3.75 is not unprecedented and could recur if the current HBM shortage and AI capex boom (NVIDIA Data Center revenue reached $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, with Data Center at $89.02 billion ) keeps demand ahead of supply through 2027. https://gpu-index.semianalysis.com/ ; https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-export-ban-backfires-chinese-132055400.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is that the ongoing HBM/memory shortage (which NVIDIA says is "headed even higher into next year") combined with sold-out on-demand capacity and rising neocloud list prices (Nebius already at $3.85–$4.50) sustains or reaccelerates the H100 price spikes already seen in September 2026 (transacted index briefly at $3.28, up ~20% in a month), making a monthly average clearing $3.75 by July 2027 a plausible outcome if the memory shortage persists and no major new low-cost supply (e.g., Blackwell glut) arrives to reverse Hopper pricing. NOT FOUND: No official Kalshi rulebook text or Ornn methodology page could be fetched directly (domain access blocked) to confirm exactly which index/definition ("average value of NVIDIA H100 compute per hour") this specific July 2027 contract uses, nor any explicit price forecast or forward curve reading for July 2027 itself (Kalshi's "Economics of Compute" research page, which reportedly shows H100 curves "flat into 2027," could not be fetched due to access restrictions).

- [2026-09-21] GetDeploying's live tracker of 54 providers/483 price points shows the current on-demand H100 median at $3.35/GPU-hr, cheapest in-stock at $1.25/GPU-hr, sitting below the $3.75 threshold even after a recent uptick. As of September 20, 2026, the median on-demand price is $3.36 per GPU per hour across 38 providers with a priced on-demand config. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h100 - [2026-09-21] The same tracker's own 90-day trend shows only a modest rise, not a breakout above $3.75: median on-demand price $3.35/hr with a 90-day trend of "+7%," meaning even the recent upward move leaves the market roughly 11% below the $3.75 bar. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h100 - [2026-08-25] AIMultiple's Cloud GPU Rental Price Index (cited via shattered.io) found that the median H100 rental price across its tracked cohort now sits around $3.38 an hour, down from more than $7 an hour in early 2024 , reinforcing a multi-year downward trend rather than acceleration toward $3.75+. https://shattered.io/h100-h200-b200-cloud-gpu-pricing-2026/ - [2026-08-12] Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya's note, covered by TheStreet, put H100 spot rental prices at roughly $2.80 an hour , and a separate BofA figure from a week later pegged H100 at $2.77 an hour, up 2% month over month and up 33% year over year — both well under $3.75 even after a full year of gains. https://shattered.io/h100-h200-b200-cloud-gpu-pricing-2026/ - [2026-09-01] Thunder Compute's own tracker (dated September 1, 2026) lists A100s starting at $1.09/hr and H100s at $2.89/hr, with H100 80GB rates ranging $2.89-$11.06/hr — the low end of the dispersed market remains far below $3.75, and even Thunder's own advertised on-demand rate is $3.20/hr. https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/ai-gpu-rental-market-trends - [2026-07-10] Value Add VC's chip-shortage tracker found H100 cloud rental rates fell from $8-10/hr in early 2024 to $1.80-3.50/hr in Q2 2026 — a 64-75% decline , showing the on-demand/spot segment (the largest share of the market) sitting comfortably under the $3.75 threshold. - [2026-09-05] Shattered.io's own forward-looking analysis predicts continued softening, not a rise past $3.75: H100 marketplace rates likely keep drifting toward $1 an hour by mid-2027 as the chip ages further and B200 capacity absorbs premium demand, following the same depreciation curve the A100 followed before it. https://shattered.io/h100-h200-b200-cloud-gpu-pricing-2026/ - [2026-09-05] Even the segment moving against the broader downtrend — 1-year reserved contracts — only bottomed at $1.70/hr in October 2025 and has since climbed back up nearly 40% to $2.35/hr by March 2026 , still less than two-thirds of the way to $3.75. https://valueaddvc.com/blog/is-the-ai-chip-shortage-over-in-2026-gpu-pricing-and-what-comes-next - [2026-09-08] Jarvislabs' pricing page, checked September 8, 2026, quotes an NVIDIA H100 SXM with 80 GB of GPU memory costs $2.69 per GPU-hour to rent on Jarvislabs , another concrete data point well under $3.75. https://jarvislabs.ai/blog/h100-price - [2026-09-01] Even at the specialist/mid-tier level, shattered.io's table pegs H100 specialist-cloud pricing at $3.19–$4.59/hr, meaning the market-wide blended average (which weights toward the larger marketplace/community and specialist tiers rather than the thin hyperscaler tail) sits near or below $3.75, not clearly above it. https://shattered.io/h100-h200-b200-cloud-gpu-pricing-2026/ - [2026-09-01] The structural argument for NO: the bottleneck moved one layer down the stack, from GPU die availability to the memory that sits next to it, and Nvidia's own supply commentary points to increasing overall chip supply (Blackwell ramping) which continues to push aging H100 capacity toward cheaper marketplace tiers rather than sustaining a price rise past $3.75. BOTTOM LINE: Every independent tracker checked (GetDeploying, AIMultiple, Bank of America/Thunder Compute, Value Add VC, Jarvislabs) puts the current H100 on-demand/median rental price in the $2.70–$3.40/hr band as of August–September 2026, meaningfully below the $3.75 threshold, and the dominant multi-year and even near-term forecast trend (aided by aging Hopper silicon, expanding neo-cloud supply, and Blackwell absorbing premium demand) points toward flat-to-declining prices, not a rise above $3.75 by July 2027. NOT FOUND: No primary Kalshi-market-specific price index or methodology (i.e., which exact dataset/provider Kalshi will use to determine "the average value of NVIDIA H100 compute per hour") was found, nor any direct forecast or futures-market data specifically for July 2027 H100 pricing.