Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

- [2026-09-20] Iranian MP Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani said a triple-urgency bill to withdraw from the NPT "had already been submitted to the Presiding Board" and is "ready to be presented before an open session and requires approval from Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to be put to debate." No vote has occurred yet. (presstv.co.uk) - [2026-09-20] Tasnim confirmed the same: the motion "has already been submitted to Parliament's presiding board and is awaiting permission to be debated in an open session." (tasnimnews.ir) - [2026-09-15/16] A bloc of 130 Iranian lawmakers signed a statement urging the presiding board to "activate the legal process for complete withdrawal from the treaty ‘in the shortest possible time,’" explicitly invoking Article X's three-months'-notice provision — a call for parliament to act, not yet a government notification. (tehrantimes.com) - [2026-09-19] SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated Iran's nuclear doctrine remains unchanged and it "remains committed to its policy of non-weaponization," while saying NPT withdrawal is "possible" only as a reaction to further US/Israeli threats — an official signaling caution, not a firm decision. (presstv.co.uk) - [2026-09-16] Iran International reported the withdrawal push is exposing "a divide within Iran's political establishment between those who see NPT membership as offering little protection and others who warn that withdrawal would surrender one of Tehran's remaining diplomatic and legal advantages," indicating no unified government decision yet. (iranintl.com) - [2026-09-12] Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the bill is still in drafting stage: "The government is obliged to implement the parliament's decisions, but the bill is still being prepared, and we will coordinate our actions with the parliament in later stages." (militarnyi.com) - [2026-09-09] The IAEA Board of Governors voted 23-3 (8 abstentions; Russia, China, Niger opposed) to refer Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council for non-compliance — "the first such referral in 20 years" — a key trigger cited by pro-withdrawal lawmakers. (globalsecurity.org / rferl) - [2026-03-28] Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei had earlier confirmed the original withdrawal-linked bill was introduced in parliament, while stressing "the Islamic Republic of Iran has never sought, and does not seek, nuclear weapons." That bill still requires Guardian Council review before taking effect, per Arms Control Association: "If the legislation passes parliament, it will still need to be reviewed by the Guardian Council, which has the power to veto it." (armscontrol.org) - [2026-09-20] No formal parliamentary vote on the NPT-withdrawal bill has taken place as of this date; the bill remains pending speaker/presiding-board approval for floor debate. (tasnimnews.ir, presstv.co.uk) - [2026-09-20] Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian was reported heading to New York for the UN General Assembly, a venue where any formal Article X notification, if it occurred, would likely be publicly signaled or discussed. (presstv.co.uk) - As of today, no Iranian government body — Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Ministry, or SNSC — has issued the formal written Article X notice to the UN required for market resolution; all reported actions remain legislative proposals, statements of intent, and threats. BOTTOM LINE: Momentum toward NPT withdrawal has clearly accelerated in September 2026 (130-MP statement, triple-urgency bill submitted to parliament's Presiding Board, IAEA-to-UNSC referral cited as justification), but as of 2026-09-21 Iran has not passed the bill, obtained Guardian Council approval, or issued any formal Article X withdrawal notice — the process remains at the parliamentary-proposal stage with the government (SNSC/Foreign Ministry) still emphasizing "possible" rather than decided withdrawal. NOT FOUND: No evidence of an actual parliamentary floor vote on the NPT withdrawal bill, no Guardian Council ruling, and no official Article X notification letter to the UN Secretary-General or depositary states as of 2026-09-21.

- [2003-01-10] The only precedent for NPT withdrawal in the treaty's history is North Korea, which announced its withdrawal on January 10, 2003, with the move taking effect three months later on April 10, 2003 after invoking Article X; North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT on January 10, 2003, stating then that its withdrawal "will come into force automatically and immediately" on the next day, though the generally held view is that withdrawal became effective April 10, 2003. This is the sole completed case in 56 years of the treaty (188+ members), giving an extremely low base rate for any single state actually completing Article X withdrawal in a given ~14-month window. https://nonproliferation.org/north-koreas-withdrawal-from-the-npt-a-reality-check/ - [2025-06-17] Iran's threats to withdraw have recurred episodically since at least the early 2020s and escalated sharply after the June 2025 Israel-Iran war: three days after the first Israeli aerial strikes on Iran, the Iranian parliament introduced a bill that—if passed—could see Iran withdraw from the NPT, with Tehran having "repeatedly threatened in the past to withdraw from the treaty." Despite this, experts said Iran was unlikely to actually leave the treaty anytime soon, with one noting "For now, Iran appears unlikely to withdraw from the [NPT]." https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2025/iran-250616-rferl01.htm - [2026-03-28] The pattern of parliamentary bills without follow-through continued into 2026: Iran threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, with implementing legislation titled "Support for the Nuclear Rights of the Iranian Nation" introduced by MP Malek Shariati just weeks before the 2026 NPT Review Conference. Yet Iran submitted five working papers for the 2026 NPT Review Conference after the war broke out, suggesting it still planned to participate in the conference rather than exit — a recurring "threaten but stay" pattern. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-05/news/iran-threatens-withdraw-npt - [2025-09-07] Reporting characterized the outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than a foregone conclusion: an analyst quoted in Iran International said "It's possible and it's somewhat likely — either a diplomatic crisis with NPT withdrawal or potentially something kinetic. But it's not a foregone conclusion." https://www.iranintl.com/en/202509071987 - [2025-11-24] Rhetoric escalated again after the IAEA Board of Governors' November 20, 2025 resolution, with senior lawmakers and state officials publicly discussing withdrawing from the NPT and acquiring nuclear weapons from foreign allies — another instance of threat escalation without a completed Article X notification. https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/nuclear/iranian-officials-float-npt-withdrawal-and-imported-warheads-following-iaea-resolution/ - [2026-09-15] Most recently, 130 Iranian lawmakers invoked Article X, which allows a state to withdraw if it determines extraordinary events have jeopardized its supreme national interests, and requires three months' notice to other NPT parties and the UN Security Council, arguing that continuing threats and attacks constituted such an extraordinary situation. This is the closest Iran has come procedurally, but it remains a lawmaker call, not an executive/government notification. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/530066/130-Iranian-lawmakers-call-for-legal-process-to-withdraw-from - [2026-09-20/21] Days later, Iran's Supreme National Security Council signaled continued ambiguity: SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Iran remains committed to non-weaponization but warned that withdrawal from the NPT is possible in response to military and political threats from the US and Israel , while lawmakers submitted a bill with triple urgency to Parliament's Presiding Board seeking withdrawal. This shows the legislative track advancing but formal executive notification to the UN still not issued. https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/20/776678/Iran-lawmakers-NPT-withdrawal - [2026-09] Legal/expert commentary on Article X notes the procedural and political complexity of any withdrawal being deemed legitimate: one could imagine Iran justifying "extraordinary events" under Article X, but acceptance by the international community would be a political question, and the UNSC would have three months to react before withdrawal becomes effective, though consensus on a response is unlikely, as in 2003. This implies that even if Iran files notice, effective/recognized withdrawal could be legally contested for months. https://www.frstrategie.org/en/publications/notes/withdrawing-npt-legal-and-strategic-considerations-2023 - [2026-09] Polymarket's own "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" market — the same market underlying this question — was trading around 11% Yes with $408K+ in volume as of the search snapshot, reflecting the crowd's aggregate probability estimate. https://polymarket.com/predictions/nuclear-weapons - [2026-08] A separate but related Polymarket market, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before August," had already resolved/settled at 0% Yes, consistent with no formal notification having occurred by that earlier deadline. https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-august BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is strongly against a "Yes" resolution: in 56 years and 191 NPT members, only North Korea has ever completed an Article X withdrawal, and Iran has repeatedly floated, introduced, and shelved withdrawal bills since 2019 (and especially since June 2025) without executive follow-through, while its own prediction markets price the event at roughly 10-11%. NOT FOUND: No confirmed instance of any government (including Iran's Supreme National Security Council or Foreign Ministry) formally transmitting an Article X withdrawal notice to the UN as of the most recent reporting (Sept 20-21, 2026); no independent/expert survey or poll (beyond Polymarket pricing) quantifying this specific probability was located.

- [2026-09-20] Iranian lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani announced a "triple-urgency" NPT withdrawal bill had been formally submitted to Parliament's Presiding Board seeking the country's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the plan is ready to be presented before an open session, requiring only approval from Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to be put to debate . https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/20/776678/Iran-lawmakers-NPT-withdrawal - [2026-09-15] 130 Iranian lawmakers (roughly half the 290-seat Majlis) signed a statement calling on parliament to initiate the legal process for the country's withdrawal from the NPT, arguing that international mechanisms have failed to protect Iran's rights, security and peaceful nuclear infrastructure , and explicitly invoked Article X of the treaty, which allows a state to withdraw if it determines that extraordinary events related to the treaty have jeopardized its supreme national interests, requiring three months' notice to other NPT parties and the UN Security Council . https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/530066/130-Iranian-lawmakers-call-for-legal-process-to-withdraw-from - [2026-09-19/20] Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei stated that the country remains committed to its policy of non-weaponization of its nuclear program, adding that withdrawal from the NPT is possible in response to military and political threats from the United States and the Israeli regime , signaling top-level SNSC openness to withdrawal, not just parliamentary backbenchers. https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/19/776619/Iran-Rezaei-SNSC-nuclear-doctrine-NPT - [2026-09-20] The trigger cited by lawmakers is that the IAEA's Board of Governors referred Iran's case to the UN Security Council over alleged non-compliance with the inspection regime , escalating pressure that hardliners argue justifies withdrawal. https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/20/776678/Iran-lawmakers-NPT-withdrawal - [2026-03-28] This is not a new push: earlier in 2026, after US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, MP Malek Shariati introduced legislation titled "Support for the Nuclear Rights of the Iranian Nation," built on three pillars: withdrawal from the treaty, repeal of the 2015 nuclear deal implementation law, and support for new international nuclear-cooperation agreements . https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-05/news/iran-threatens-withdraw-npt - [2026-03-30] Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei framed withdrawal as a serious live option, saying "Iran's withdrawal from the NPT would be the surest sign of a failure of negotiations" , indicating the government treats NPT exit as a genuine diplomatic/military escalation lever rather than empty rhetoric. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/30/iran-revives-threat-to-withdraw-from-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty/ - [2025-09-06/08] Precedent for fast legislative action exists: a September 2025 triple-urgency NPT bill was slated for same-day Majlis review, with spokesman Abbas Goudarzi noting the bill carries triple-urgency status and will be placed on the Majlis' agenda without delay, and if approved, both its general framework and details will be reviewed in the same open session, with Guardian Council members present to check constitutionality — showing the procedural path to a vote can move very fast once the Speaker allows debate. https://iranfocus.com/nuclear/55310-irans-regime-parliament-to-review-triple-urgency-bill-on-withdrawal-from-npt/ - [2025-06-12] Iran has already put the international community on formal legal notice once before: Ambassador Saeed Iravani reiterated in a formal letter to the UN Security Council that Iran would take "proportionate responses," including "starting the process of withdrawal from the NPT in accordance with Article X of the Treaty" if snapback sanctions were reimposed — establishing a template for how a formal Article X notice would be delivered. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2025/iran-250612-irna08.htm - [2026-09-20] Context: this parliamentary push is occurring amid active, ongoing US-Israel-Iran military conflict, per contemporaneous reporting describing "two occasions" of enemy aggression and continuing hostilities, which raises the stakes and speed at which hardliners could force a floor vote. https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/20/776678/Iran-lawmakers-NPT-withdrawal BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to "Yes" is a fast-tracked, triple-urgency Majlis bill — already drafted, backed by 130+ lawmakers, and awaiting only Speaker Qalibaf's approval to reach the floor — passing amid active war with the US/Israel and a fresh UN Security Council referral, followed by the government issuing the required Article X notice (for which Iran has already used a template letter in 2025). All the political, legislative and legal preconditions are visibly in place as of September 2026, making formal notification plausible before the December 31, 2026 deadline if hostilities or Security Council action escalate further. NOT FOUND: No evidence that Parliament Speaker Qalibaf has yet approved the bill for open-session debate, that the bill has actually passed a floor vote, or that Iran has issued the actual Article X written notice to the UN as of September 21, 2026.

- [2026-05-01] Legislation to withdraw was introduced in Iran's parliament as early as March 28, 2026, titled "Support for the Nuclear Rights of the Iranian Nation," and it was still only a bill "fast tracked 'with triple urgency'" months later — six months on it still had not passed. Malek Shariati, a member of the Iranian parliament, introduced the legislation titled "Support for the Nuclear Rights of the Iranian Nation" March 28. Iran has threatened to quit the NPT on several occasions since 2004. - [2026-05-01] Even if parliament passes the bill, it faces an additional veto gate: If the legislation passes parliament, it will still need to be reviewed by the Guardian Council, which has the power to veto it. (Note: source text confirms this Guardian Council review requirement was reported in the Arms Control Today piece.) - [2026-05-01] Despite the withdrawal threats, Iran continued engaging with the NPT process rather than exiting it: it "submitted five working papers for the 2026 NPT Review Conference after the war broke out, suggesting that it still plans to participate in the conference." - [2026-05-01] Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman explicitly downplayed imminent withdrawal, saying "the Islamic Republic of Iran has never sought, and does not seek, nuclear weapons," adding that "regarding remaining a party to this treaty... this is a matter of genuine discussion within public opinion and at the parliamentary level." - [2026-09-20] As of the most recent reporting, Iran's own senior security official confirms no decision has been made: A senior Iranian security official said Iran has not yet decided whether to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), adding that any decision on the issue will depend on Washington's behavior. - [2026-09-20] That same official, Mohsen Rezaei, stressed continuity with existing non-weaponization policy: the country is still committed to a religious decree issued by its late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which prohibits developing atomic weapons. - [2026-09-20] The September push is still at the "proposal" stage, requiring further procedural approval before even being debated: Iranian lawmakers are pushing a fast-tracked motion calling for the country's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with an MP saying the proposal has already been submitted to Parliament's presiding board and is awaiting permission to be debated in an open session... the three-urgency motion had been submitted to the presiding board some time ago and is now ready to be introduced if Parliament speaker allows it to be discussed. - [2026-09-15] A separate, larger lawmaker initiative (130 signatories) only calls on parliament to "initiate" a process — it is not itself a withdrawal notice, and Article X's own mechanics require a lengthy step even after a decision is made: A total of 130 Iranian lawmakers have signed a statement calling on parliament to initiate the legal process for the country's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)... The provision requires a withdrawing state to give three months' notice to other NPT parties and the UN Security Council. - [2025-06 (analysis)] Outside experts have long argued the withdrawal threat functions mainly as leverage rather than a genuine near-term plan: Over the past decade, Iran has threatened many times to play this card in retaliation for far less serious assaults. NPT withdrawal is one of the few actions available to Iran that would have a significant effect. A DW analysis similarly notes Analysts say the threat to quit may offer Tehran more leverage than an actual withdrawal. - [Historical pattern] This is not a new phenomenon — Iran raised the identical threat two decades ago without following through, e.g. in 2006 when parliament threatened to withdraw the Additional Protocol/pull out over enrichment disputes, per contemporaneous Fox News reporting on Ahmadinejad-era threats, none of which resulted in actual Article X notice being filed. - [2026-09-20] Even the September 2026 push explicitly frames withdrawal as conditional and reactive to future US/Israeli actions rather than a fixed decision: withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is possible in response to military and political threats from the United States and the Israeli regime... allows the country to withdraw from the NPT — "possible"/"allows," not "will." BOTTOM LINE: Despite an escalating drumbeat of parliamentary bills, lawmaker statements, and IAEA/UNSC referral pressure through September 2026, every Iranian official on record (Foreign Ministry, SNSC Secretary Rezaei, parliamentary spokesmen) still frames withdrawal as a contingent threat under active internal "discussion," not a taken decision — no bill has passed parliament, no Guardian Council review has occurred, and no Article X notice has been filed, closely mirroring two decades of similar threats that never materialized into formal withdrawal. NOT FOUND: No evidence of an actual Article X written notice to the UN or IAEA; no confirmation that the March or September 2026 parliamentary bills have passed a floor vote or cleared the Guardian Council; no official Iranian government statement setting a firm date/decision to withdraw.