Scan: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-20	88%	90%	74%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Is Delcy Rodríguez currently (as of the latest reporting) the individual exercising primary executive control over Venezuela's armed forces, ministries and capital, and how did she come to hold that position?
Is there a scheduled or negotiated presidential election or formal transition in Venezuela before December 31, 2026, and what is its credible timeline?
What is the current US (Trump administration) policy toward Rodríguez's government — cooperation/sanctions relief, or pressure for her removal and replacement by the opposition (Machado/González)?
How stable is her control over the military and security apparatus — are Vladimir Padrino López, Diosdado Cabello, and other chavista power centers aligned with her or positioning to displace her?
What do prediction markets (Polymarket direct plus Kalshi/Polymarket related markets on Venezuela leadership, elections, Maduro, Machado) currently imply about her staying in power through 2026?
What is the base rate of interim/acting leaders installed after a sudden removal of a head of state remaining in power roughly 11-12 months later?
Are there signs of internal unrest, opposition mobilization, or foreign military action in 2026 that could plausibly remove her before year-end?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket world-politics question about who exercises de facto executive control of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026, so the market price is the primary anchor and current reporting on Delcy Rodríguez's grip on the military, the chavista power structure (Cabello, Padrino López), US policy toward her interim government, and any scheduled transition/election timeline are the key drivers. Resolution is via consensus reporting rather than a named page, so no resolution_source call is needed; instead I lean on news tools, cross-venue markets, and background context.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.5s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? - Current price (probability): 93.00% - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: +2.50% - Total volume: $112,715 (USD notional) - Price range: 85.00% - 95.00% - Data points: 91
polymarket_related	OK	1.6s	17	Polymarket search over 5 keyword(s), kept 17 matches. keyword 'Venezuela': 5 markets \| keyword 'Delcy Rodríguez': 5 markets \| keyword 'Maduro': 1 markets \| keyword 'Machado': 5 markets \| keyword 'Venezuela election': 1 markets
kalshi_related	OK	8.1s	0	0 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Venezuela': no matches \| keyword 'Delcy Rodriguez': no matches \| keyword 'Maduro': no matches
article_search	OK	1.3s	23	Fetched 23 unique articles across 5 queries (lookback=45d). 'Delcy Rodríguez acting president Venezuela control military': 10 articles \| 'Venezuela transition election timeline 2026': 10 articles \| 'US policy Venezuela Rodríguez government sanctions Trump': 10 articles \| 'Padrino López Cabello Venez
claude_news	OK	24.1s	17	## Key Findings - Power transition began Jan 3-5, 2026: US special forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a raid on Caracas; Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered VP Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez issued a statement endorsing a Supreme Court ruling that appointed Rodriguez as acti
gdelt_news	FAILED	240.0s	0	timeout after 240.0s
wikipedia	OK	1.1s	6	Fetched 6 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	61.4s	0	## Key Findings - Full sample base rate: Across 20 illustrative historical cases of interim/acting leaders installed after a sudden ouster or capture of a head of state, 12/20 (60%) retained effective power ~11–12 months later. Wilson 90% CI: [41.9%, 75.8%]. - **Cases retaining power a

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 8308 chars

# Current state Delcy Rodríguez has functioned as Venezuela's interim/acting president since January 5, 2026, following the US capture of Maduro, and by September 2026 controls the armed forces (having replaced Padrino López as defense minister), executive ministries, and enjoys active US/Trump administration engagement (oil deals, security cooperation). No election is scheduled before end of 2026; her constitutional 90-day mandates have lapsed without the National Assembly triggering the succession process, and she has stated elections will happen only when Venezuela is "ready" — no firm date given. # Timeline of key events - 2026-01-03: US special forces capture Maduro and his wife in Caracas raid (confirmed, multiple sources). - 2026-01-05: Rodríguez sworn in as acting president under a Supreme Court ruling granting a 90-day mandate; Padrino López (then defense minister) publicly endorses her (confirmed — CBS, Wikipedia). - 2026-02-05: Padrino symbolically hands Rodríguez sword/baton as commander-in-chief, signaling military recognition (confirmed — NPR). - 2026-03: Rodríguez replaces Padrino as defense minister and purges Maduro-era security/intel chiefs (confirmed — Fox News, claude_news synthesis). - 2026-07 (early): Her second 90-day National Assembly mandate lapses; Assembly avoids declaring Maduro "permanently absent," which would trigger constitutional election process (confirmed — Foreign Policy). - 2026-07-30: TIME reports tight security detail around Rodríguez, signaling perceived threats (reported). - 2026-08-06: US-backed democracy talks begin in Venezuela (government + a faction of opposition), excluding Machado; agreement reached to replace Supreme Court; Rubio frames this as start of a "transition process" (confirmed — CNN). - 2026-08-19: Foreign Policy reports opposition factions trying to topple Rodríguez without Trump's backing; skepticism about her trustworthiness as long-term US partner (reported). - 2026-08-29: Trump announces US majority stake (55%) in a 100-year, 60+ billion barrel oil concession granted by Rodríguez's government (confirmed — CBS). - 2026-09-02: Chevron announces $7B expansion in Venezuela under Rodríguez government, with US Defense Dept holding 35% equity in the joint venture (confirmed — CNBC). - 2026-09-06: Energy Secretary Chris Wright states elections "are coming" but gives no timeline; suggests deal not contingent on which government holds power (confirmed — CBS Face the Nation transcript). - 2026-09-16/20: Machado reportedly planning return to Venezuela from exile to push for elections; US reportedly wary this could destabilize the transition (reported — Detroit News, YourNews/WSJ). - 2026-09 (undated): Rodríguez states elections will occur only when Venezuela is "ready," no specific timeline given (reported — Cuba Headlines). # Event Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela (effective control over military, ministries, capital) on Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor Kalshi-direct data not returned in tool results (kalshi_related found zero matches for Venezuela/Delcy/Maduro keywords — no direct Kalshi price captured in this research pass). Primary anchor must be Polymarket's own-market price instead. # Resolution source Not run (no resolution_source tool output provided). # Sub-question answers 1. **Current control** — Yes, Rodríguez holds primary executive authority: sworn in Jan 5 2026 after Maduro's capture, endorsed by military leadership, and by March 2026 had replaced Padrino as defense minister and purged rivals (Wikipedia; Fox News; NPR). 2. **Scheduled election/transition** — No firm election is scheduled before Dec 31, 2026. Her 90-day constitutional mandates lapsed without the Assembly declaring Maduro permanently absent (which would trigger elections); talks ongoing but "full product" not expected before December 2026 at earliest (Foreign Policy; CNN). 3. **US policy** — Trump administration actively cooperates with Rodríguez (major oil/Chevron deals, DoD equity stake), while publicly saying elections are needed but "too soon"; Trump reportedly views Machado as lacking sufficient domestic backing (claude_news, CBS, CNBC). 4. **Military/elite alignment** — Padrino publicly ceded command symbols to her before being replaced by her own appointee; she has dismantled Maduro's patronage network. Cabello's current alignment is less clear from research (no direct recent reporting on Cabello vs. Rodríguez tension found), but no reported coup attempt against her. 5. **Prediction markets** — Polymarket's own market prices Yes at 93%; related market "leader of Venezuela end of 2026" prices Rodríguez Yes 44.5% (broader/older framing) vs. Maduro 54% (likely stale/mispriced), Machado/González/Cabello/Padrino all near 0%; "Rodríguez out by Dec 31" Yes at 10.5% (implying ~89.5% she stays). 6. **Base rate for interim leaders at ~12 months** — Code-execution analysis: overall 60% (12/20) retain power; entrenched/strongman-type successors without fixed election timeline retain power 75% (9/12); caretakers tied to near-term elections only 37.5%. Rodríguez fits the entrenched/no-fixed-election category better. 7. **Unrest/removal risk in 2026** — Machado planning a return and nationwide campaign (Sept 2026); opposition factions reportedly working to topple Rodríguez without Trump's help; heightened security around her signals perceived threat, but no reported unrest, coup attempt, or US military action against her found in this research window. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia/CBS] Rodríguez sworn in acting president Jan 5, 2026 after US capture of Maduro Jan 3, 2026. 2. [NPR/Fox News] Military (Padrino) publicly recognized her authority; she later replaced Padrino as defense minister (March 2026). 3. [CNBC/CBS] US-Rodríguez government struck major oil concession/joint-venture deals (Aug-Sep 2026), indicating deep US-Rodríguez cooperation. 4. [Foreign Policy] Her constitutional 90-day mandates lapsed without triggering election process; Assembly has not declared Maduro permanently absent. 5. [Cuba Headlines/Detroit News] No election date set as of Sept 2026; both Rodríguez and Trump indicate elections are not imminent. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: none found (0 matches). - Polymarket (own market): Yes 93%, up +2.5% over 30d, down -1% over 7d; volume $112.7k over 91 days — stable high confidence in Yes. - Polymarket related: "Rodríguez out by Dec 31, 2026" Yes 10.5% (implies ~89.5% stay); "Machado leader end 2026" 0.05%; "Maduro released from custody" 6.5%; "Venezuela election scheduled by Dec 31" only for Q1 2026 close, priced 16% Yes (stale/different window). - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Former US ambassador (NPR): Rodríguez strategy is to "do just enough to look compliant" while waiting out US midterms to reduce pressure. - Opposition's Freddy Guevara (Foreign Policy): US "trusts Rodríguez but with a gun to her head" — not seen as durable long-term partner. - TIME: heavy security detail suggests she perceives real threats to her position. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Strong — entrenched military/ministerial control, active US economic partnership, no election scheduled, high base rate for entrenched successors (75%), Polymarket 93%. - **No**: Weaker but non-trivial — Machado's planned return, opposition efforts to unseat her without US help, US ambiguity on long-term recognition, possible US-brokered transition pressure building toward/after December talks. # Gaps / unknowns - No Kalshi-direct price captured (tool returned no matches) — cannot confirm Kalshi's own consensus price for this exact ticker. - Cabello's current stance/loyalty not directly reported in this research pull. - Outcome of December 2026 "full product" democratic talks unknown at time of writing. - No resolution_source tool run. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket own-market YES price: 93% (used as primary anchor absent Kalshi data). - Related Polymarket "Rodríguez out by Dec 31, 2026": 10.5% Yes (implies ~90% stays) — consistent with 93% anchor. - Historical base rate for entrenched/strongman-type interim leaders retaining power ~12 months: ~75% (9/12 cases); overall base rate across all cases: ~60%.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

63% conf

Yes	90%
No	10%

Rodríguez has held acting power since Jan 5, 2026, controls the armed forces after replacing Padrino as defense minister and purging Maduro-era security chiefs, and the Trump administration has deepened economic ties via the 55% US oil stake and $7B Chevron JV (Aug–Sep 2026), signaling no US push to remove her before year-end. No election is scheduled, her lapsed 90-day mandates went unenforced by the Assembly, and the December 'democratic talks' are not expected to yield a transfer of power within the ~3.5 months remaining. Polymarket prices Yes at 93% with a consistent 10.5% on 'out by Dec 31'; no Kalshi price was captured. Residual risk comes from Machado's planned return, opposition efforts to unseat her, and US ambiguity about her long-term role, plus the short-horizon hazard for any interim strongman, so I shade slightly below the market to ~0.90.

claude-fable-5-1

66% conf

Yes	91%
No	9%

Rodríguez has held acting presidency since Jan 5, 2026, replaced Padrino as defense minister, purged Maduro-era security chiefs, and secured deep US economic partnership (Chevron $7B expansion, DoD equity stake), with no election scheduled and her own statements deferring elections until Venezuela is 'ready.' With only ~3 months to Dec 31 and no reported coup attempt or US move against her, the base rate for entrenched successors without a fixed election timeline (~75% at 12 months) is even more favorable over a 3-month horizon. No Kalshi-direct price was captured, so the anchor is Polymarket's own market at 93% Yes, corroborated by the related 'out by Dec 31' market implying ~90% she stays. Residual risk comes from Machado's planned return, opposition efforts to unseat her, heavy security signaling perceived threats, and possible US-brokered transition pressure from December talks, justifying a small shade below the market at 0.91.

claude-fable-5-1

68% conf

Yes	90%
No	10%

Rodríguez has held acting presidency since Jan 5, 2026, replaced Padrino as defense minister, purged Maduro-era security chiefs, and secured deep US economic partnership (Chevron $7B expansion, DoD equity stake in oil JV) — the US has strong incentive not to destabilize her before year-end. No election is scheduled before Dec 31, 2026; her constitutional mandates lapsed without the Assembly triggering succession, and both she and Trump officials signal elections are not imminent. With only ~3.5 months remaining and no Kalshi price available, Polymarket's 93% (corroborated by 'out by Dec 31' at 10.5%) is the anchor; I shade slightly lower given Machado's planned return, opposition maneuvering, heavy security suggesting perceived threats, and the ambiguity of December transition talks. The 75% base rate for entrenched successors over 12 months is less relevant than the short remaining window, which favors incumbency.

gpt-5.6-sol

82% conf

Yes	92%
No	8%

Current control strongly favors Yes because Rodríguez commands the military, ministries, and capital after replacing Padrino and purging rival security officials. No election is scheduled, the Assembly has declined to trigger constitutional succession, and major US-backed oil deals indicate that Washington currently supports continuity under her government. The 93% Polymarket anchor and the related market implying roughly a 90% chance she remains in office reinforce this assessment. I shade slightly below 93% because Machado's planned return, unclear elite loyalties, and ongoing transition talks leave a small but material removal risk before year-end.

gpt-5.6-sol

79% conf

Yes	92%
No	8%

Current control points strongly toward Yes because Rodríguez commands the military, ministries, and capital after replacing Padrino and purging rival security officials. The transition outlook also favors Yes: no election is scheduled, constitutional deadlines have lapsed without action, and major US-backed oil deals indicate continued cooperation with her government. The 93% Polymarket price is the best available anchor because no Kalshi-direct price was captured, while the related removal market implies a similar roughly 90% chance that she stays. I shade slightly below 93% due to opposition activity, uncertainty over Cabello and other elites, and the possibility that US-backed transition talks accelerate before year-end.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

91% (72% confidence)

Yes: 91% No: 9%

Mean of 5 draws (0.90, 0.91, 0.90, 0.92, 0.92). Rodríguez has held acting power since Jan 5, 2026, controls the armed forces after replacing Padrino as defense minister and purging Maduro-era security chiefs, and the Trump administration has deepened economic ties via the 55% US oil stake and $7B Chevron JV (Aug–Sep 2026), signaling no US push to remove her before year-end. No election is scheduled, her lapsed 90-day mandates went unenforced by the Assembly, and the December 'democratic talks' are not expected to yield a transfer of power within the ~3.5 months remaining. Polymarket prices Yes at 93% with a consistent 10.5% on 'out by Dec 31'; no Kalshi price was captured. Residual risk comes from Machado's planned return, opposition efforts to unseat her, and US ambiguity about her long-term role, plus the short-horizon hazard for any interim strongman, so I shade slightly below the market to ~0.90.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 315.3s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.