Scan: Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related resolution_source article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Has Chiang Wan-an formally confirmed he is seeking re-election as Taipei Mayor in the November 28, 2026 local elections, and has the KMT nominated him?
Who is the DPP candidate (or leading contenders) for Taipei Mayor in 2026, and what do recent head-to-head polls show versus Chiang?
What are Chiang Wan-an's current approval/satisfaction ratings as Taipei mayor, and how have they trended over 2025-2026?
What is the historical base rate of incumbent Taipei mayors (and Taiwanese incumbent mayors generally) winning re-election, and how has Taipei voted in recent mayoral/presidential elections?
Is there any risk of a strong third-party candidate (e.g., TPP-aligned) splitting the pan-blue vote, or of a KMT-TPP cooperation arrangement in Taipei?
What is the national political environment (KMT vs DPP approval, aftermath of the 2025 recall campaigns, Lai administration approval) that could produce a wave against or for the KMT in local elections?
Is there any scenario in which Chiang steps down or does not complete the race (scandal, health, higher-office ambitions, legal issues)?

Planner reasoning

Chiang Wan-an is the incumbent KMT mayor of Taipei, a traditionally KMT-leaning city, and incumbents in Taiwanese local elections have very high re-election rates. Key uncertainties are whether he runs for re-election (vs. being drafted for other roles), who the DPP nominates, current polling margins, and national political mood (post-recall votes, KMT/DPP approval) ahead of the November 28, 2026 election. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor; cross-market signals and Taiwanese polling news should refine it.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? - Current price (probability): 86.50% - 7-day price change: -4.00% - 30-day price change: -5.00% - Total volume: $50,570 (USD notional) - Price range: 84.50% - 93.50% - Data points: 38 days
polymarket_related	OK	1.6s	20	Polymarket search over 4 keyword(s), kept 20 matches. keyword 'Taipei mayor': 5 markets \| keyword 'Taiwan local elections': 5 markets \| keyword 'Chiang Wan-an': 5 markets \| keyword 'KMT': 5 markets
kalshi_related	OK	6.0s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Taipei': no matches \| keyword 'Taiwan election': ok \| keyword 'Chiang Wan-an': no matches
resolution_source	FAILED	1.2s	1	https://db.cec.gov.tw/: ConnectError: [SSL: CERTIFICATE_VERIFY_FAILED] certificate verify failed: Missing Subject Key Identifier (_ssl.c:1081)
article_search	OK	1.8s	31	Fetched 31 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=120d). 'Chiang Wan-an re-election Taipei mayor 2026': 10 articles \| 'Taipei mayor election poll DPP candidate': 10 articles \| 'Taiwan 2026 local elections KMT DPP nominations': 10 articles \| '蔣萬安民調台北市長 2026': 10 articles
claude_news	OK	25.6s	15	## Key Findings: 2026 Taipei Mayor Election - Chiang confirmed running for re-election: As of July 2026, KMT sources confirm in Taiwan's six special municipalities, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an and Taoyuan Mayor Chang San-cheng are seeking re-election , and he was formally supported at the KMT's
gdelt_news	OK	165.4s	30	GDELT: 30 articles across 3 queries (lookback=90d). 'Chiang Wan-an Taipei mayor': 10 hits \| 'Taipei mayoral election 2026': 10 hits \| 'Taiwan local elections 2026 DPP KMT': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	1.2s	4	Fetched 4 Wikipedia entries (1 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	53.2s	0	## Base Rate Analysis: Chiang Wan-an's Re-election Prospects Historical Taipei-specific base rate (1994–2022): - Incumbent mayors seeking re-election: Chen Shui-bian (1998, lost), Ma Ying-jeou (2002, won), Hau Lung-pin (2010, won), Ko Wen-je (2018, won) - **Taipei incumbent win

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7411 chars

# Current state Chiang Wan-an is the incumbent Taipei mayor (since 2022, KMT) and has confirmed he is seeking re-election in the November 28, 2026 local elections; KMT nominated him and he was endorsed at the party's July 2026 convention. DPP has settled on legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋) as its nominee after a prolonged search. Polling from late 2025 shows Chiang with commanding double-digit leads over all tested DPP rivals. The election itself has not yet occurred (vote is Nov 28, 2026); resolution depends on official results, expected to be known well before the June 30, 2027 deadline. # Timeline of key events - 2022-11: Chiang Wan-an (KMT) elected Taipei mayor, defeating Chen Shih-chung (DPP) and Huang Shan-shan. (confirmed, Wikipedia) - 2025-07/08: "Great Recall" campaigns against KMT legislators fail in both waves (July 26, Aug 23), boosting KMT/Chiang political standing. (confirmed, The Diplomat/Wikipedia) - 2025-12: TVBS poll shows Chiang leading DPP legislator Wang Shih-chien 55%–31% (24pt) and Enoch Wu 61%–24% (37pt); weak spot only among 20-29 age group. (reported, TVBS) - 2026-05: DPP nominates Puma Shen as Taipei mayoral candidate after passing over presumed frontrunner Enoch Wu — described as a "strange turn." (reported, Taipei Times) - 2026-07: KMT national convention formally nominates Chiang for re-election; party fields candidates in 19 of 21 races nationally, ceding Hsinchu City/Chiayi City to TPP allies. (confirmed, Focus Taiwan) - 2026-08: Chiang and Puma Shen clash publicly over postpartum subsidy policy — active campaign contrast forming. (reported, LTN/Taipei Times) - 2026-08: Taipei/Tainan mayors face legal complaints (unspecified nature); Chih-Nan Temple fire prompts Chiang rebuilding pledge. (reported, Focus Taiwan/Taipei Times) - 2026-09: Taipei Times editorial titled "Chiang Wan-an absurd moves" — critical opinion piece, no scandal specifics surfaced in research. (opinion/rumored severity unclear) - 2026-11-28 (scheduled): Taipei mayoral election held. # Event Will Chiang Wan-an (KMT incumbent) win the November 28, 2026 Taipei Mayor election? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No (resolves "Other" if unresolved by June 30, 2027) # Kalshi market anchor No Kalshi-direct price was returned (ticker not found in kalshi_direct results); only unrelated Kalshi markets appeared in kalshi_related (Taiwan election keyword returned no Taipei-specific matches). **No native Kalshi YES price available** — must anchor primarily on Polymarket. # Resolution source Attempt to fetch Taiwan CEC database (db.cec.gov.tw) failed (SSL certificate error). No status-quo resolution confirmation available; election has not occurred yet as of research cutoff (research spans through Sept 2026, vote is Nov 28, 2026). # Sub-question answers 1. **Confirmed candidacy/nomination?** Yes — Chiang confirmed seeking re-election; KMT formally nominated him at July 2026 convention. (Focus Taiwan) 2. **DPP candidate & polling?** Puma Shen (DPP legislator) nominated May 2026. Head-to-head polling (Dec 2025, pre-nomination) shows Chiang beating other DPP contenders (Wang Shih-chien, Enoch Wu) by 24-37 points; no direct Chiang-vs-Shen poll found in research. (TVBS) 3. **Approval trend?** Not directly quantified beyond the Dec 2025 poll showing high overall favorability extending to TPP voters and most age groups except 20-29s (31% vs Wang's 48%). No 2026 approval trendline found. 4. **Historical base rate?** Taipei incumbent win rate 1994-2022: 3/4 (75%, only Chen Shui-bian lost in 1998). Broader Taiwan special-municipality incumbent rate 2010-2022: 15/17 (88.2%). Pooled ~85.7%. (code_execution analysis) 5. **Third-party/TPP split risk?** TPP is weak in Taipei-specific market data (0.15% chance TPP wins most local races overall); some KMT-TPP cooperation/referendum coordination reported (Aug 2026), but a Sept 2026 focustaiwan report notes TPP halted cooperation with KMT in Hsinchu County (unclear direct Taipei relevance). No dedicated Taipei third-party spoiler identified. 6. **National environment?** Post-recall (2025) narrative favors KMT; both recall waves failed, strengthening KMT/Chiang standing. KMT expected to outperform DPP nationally per Polymarket's national-election-count market (87.5% KMT wins most local races vs 11.75% DPP). Ongoing friction stories (cooking-oil scandal rally, cash-handout dispute) show normal partisan sparring, no clear wave signal against KMT. 7. **Risk Chiang doesn't complete race?** No scandal, health, or withdrawal risk identified; coverage instead emphasizes rising 2028 presidential speculation for Chiang, implying he intends to stay in/win this race to build credibility. A Sept 2026 critical Taipei Times editorial ("absurd moves") suggests reputational friction but not disqualifying. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Chiang Wan-an, KMT, incumbent Taipei mayor since 2022. 2. [Focus Taiwan, Jul 2026] KMT formally nominated Chiang for re-election; fielding 19/21 local races. 3. [Taipei Times, May 2026] DPP nominated Puma Shen as Taipei candidate. 4. [TVBS, Dec 2025] Chiang led DPP rivals by 24-37 points in polling. 5. [The Diplomat/Wikipedia] Both 2025 KMT recall waves failed, boosting KMT standing nationally. 6. [code_execution] Taiwan incumbent mayor win rate 75-88% historically. # Cross-market signals - Polymarket (same market): 86.5% YES, down from ~91-93.5% high, 7d -4%, 30d -5%, $50.6K volume — declining but still strongly favors Chiang. - Polymarket related: Puma Shen win priced at 13.5% (near-complementary to Chiang's 86.5%, small gap likely "other candidate" residual). - Polymarket: KMT wins most local seats nationally 87.5% vs DPP 11.75% — consistent national tailwind. - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Taipei Times/Diplomat: Chiang and Taichung's Lu Shiow-yen seen as rising KMT stars post-recall, both eyeing 2028 presidential bids — implies strong incentive to win decisively. - Long-standing pundit consensus (Taipei Times, pre-2026): Chiang "widely considered... tough to beat." - Sept 2026 opinion piece critical of Chiang's "absurd moves" — signals some negative press/friction but not quantified as scandal. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (Chiang wins):** Strong — confirmed candidacy, dominant polling leads, favorable national mood post-recall, high historical incumbent base rate, Polymarket 86.5%. - **No (Chiang loses):** Weak but nonzero — Polymarket price has drifted down 5-9 points over 30 days (mild softening); a critical editorial and unspecified "legal complaints" against mayors suggest some risk; DPP nominee Shen not yet polled head-to-head; national mood could shift given 90 days between now and election. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi YES price found for this specific ticker. - No Chiang-vs-Puma-Shen head-to-head poll located (only pre-nomination matchups). - Nature/severity of "legal complaints" against Taipei mayor (Aug 2026) unclear. - CEC resolution source unreachable (technical error) — cannot confirm real-time official status. - No detailed 2026 approval-rating trendline post-nomination. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (same event): 86.5% — primary anchor absent Kalshi-direct data. - Historical Taiwanese incumbent mayor win base rate: 75-88% (pooled ~85.7%). - Fermi-adjusted point estimate incorporating run-probability and current polling: ~77-85%.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

68% conf

Yes	87%
No	13%

Chiang Wan-an is the confirmed KMT nominee and incumbent in a KMT-leaning city, with Dec 2025 TVBS polling showing 24-37 point leads over DPP contenders, and the DPP ultimately nominated Puma Shen, a polarizing legislator unlikely to outperform the more centrist options polled. The national environment favors the KMT after both 2025 recall waves failed (Polymarket: 87.5% KMT wins most local races), and Taiwan special-municipality incumbents win ~85% of the time historically. With no Kalshi price available, I anchor on Polymarket's 86.5% YES, noting the mild downward drift and unspecified 'legal complaints' as small tail risks, but no head-to-head poll or scandal suggests a competitive race. The main uncertainty is the ~3 months remaining and absence of Chiang-vs-Shen polling.

claude-fable-5-1

62% conf

Yes	87%
No	13%

Chiang Wan-an is the confirmed KMT nominee and incumbent in a KMT-leaning city, with Dec 2025 TVBS polling showing 24-37 point leads over DPP contenders and a favorable national environment after both 2025 recall waves failed. Historical incumbent win rates for Taiwan special municipalities run 75-88%, and Polymarket (the only market anchor, as no Kalshi-direct price exists) prices YES at 86.5%, with Puma Shen at 13.5%. The mild 30-day drift down, a critical editorial, and the absence of a direct Chiang-vs-Shen poll justify keeping meaningful tail risk, but nothing surfaced suggests a scandal or wave capable of erasing a double-digit lead in ~90 days. I anchor near the market at 0.87 YES.

claude-fable-5-1

62% conf

Yes	87%
No	13%

Chiang is the confirmed KMT nominee and incumbent in a blue-leaning city, led all tested DPP rivals by 24-37 points in Dec 2025 TVBS polling, and benefits from a favorable national environment after both 2025 recall waves failed. The DPP's late, unconventional choice of Puma Shen (passing over Enoch Wu) does not suggest a stronger challenger, and no scandal or withdrawal risk has surfaced beyond a critical editorial and vague legal complaints. With no Kalshi-direct price, I anchor on Polymarket's 86.5% YES, which is consistent with the ~85% historical incumbent win rate for Taiwan special municipalities. The residual ~13% reflects the missing Chiang-vs-Shen head-to-head poll, the mild 30-day drift down in the Polymarket price, and roughly three months of remaining campaign uncertainty.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	86%
No	14%

With no Kalshi-direct price available, the 86.5% Polymarket YES price is the primary consensus anchor. Chiang's confirmed nomination, incumbency, 24-37 point leads over previously tested DPP contenders, and the favorable post-recall environment all point toward Yes. Historical incumbent reelection rates of roughly 75-88% and the absence of a clear Taipei third-party spoiler reinforce that forecast. The lack of a direct Chiang-versus-Puma Shen poll, recent market softening, and unclear legal complaints preserve a meaningful No tail.

gpt-5.6-sol

74% conf

Yes	86%
No	14%

With no Kalshi-direct price available, the primary anchor is Polymarket’s 86.5% YES price. Chiang’s confirmed nomination, 24–37 point leads over previously tested DPP rivals, and the roughly 86% pooled historical incumbent win rate all point toward Yes. The failed recall campaigns, favorable KMT national environment, and lack of a serious withdrawal or scandal risk further support him. I retain a 14% No probability because Puma Shen has not been tested in a direct poll, recent approval trends are unavailable, and the market has softened from earlier highs.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

87% (68% confidence)

Yes: 87% No: 13%

Mean of 5 draws (0.87, 0.87, 0.87, 0.86, 0.86). Chiang Wan-an is the confirmed KMT nominee and incumbent in a KMT-leaning city, with Dec 2025 TVBS polling showing 24-37 point leads over DPP contenders, and the DPP ultimately nominated Puma Shen, a polarizing legislator unlikely to outperform the more centrist options polled. The national environment favors the KMT after both 2025 recall waves failed (Polymarket: 87.5% KMT wins most local races), and Taiwan special-municipality incumbents win ~85% of the time historically. With no Kalshi price available, I anchor on Polymarket's 86.5% YES, noting the mild downward drift and unspecified 'legal complaints' as small tail risks, but no head-to-head poll or scandal suggests a competitive race. The main uncertainty is the ~3 months remaining and absence of Chiang-vs-Shen polling.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 234.1s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.