Scan: Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms? — Before Nov 3, 2026

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news court_docket wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current status of the House Ethics Committee investigation(s) into Cory Mills, and is a report or sanction recommendation expected before November 2026?
Are there any criminal charges, indictments, or active DOJ/local investigations against Mills (e.g., the DC assault allegation, business/contracting matters) that could force resignation?
Has any censure or expulsion resolution against Mills advanced in the House (e.g., Nancy Mace's effort), and what was the vote outcome or leadership's posture?
Has Mills announced he is running for re-election in FL-7 in 2026, or has he signaled interest in another office/administration post that would require leaving early?
What is the historical base rate of sitting House members resigning or being expelled mid-term amid ethics scandals (e.g., Santos, Gaetz, Fortenberry) versus staying through the term?
What does the Kalshi market and any related Polymarket market currently price for Mills leaving, and how has it trended?

Planner reasoning

Cory Mills (R-FL-7) faces multiple controversies: House Ethics Committee scrutiny over business dealings and a domestic assault allegation, a Nancy Mace censure/expulsion push, stolen-valor accusations, and a restraining order. Resignation before Nov 3, 2026 would require him to quit, be expelled (2/3 vote), or be removed—all historically rare, so the key research is whether any concrete legal/ethics trigger is imminent and what the Kalshi market currently prices.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data Before Nov 3, 2026 (KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03) - Current price (probability): 19.00% - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: -3.00% - Average daily volume: 87 contracts - Price range: 10.00% - 42.00% - Data points: 40 days
kalshi_related	OK	8.2s	2	2 related markets / summaries. series KXLEAVEMILLS: 0 markets (skipped 2 no-signal) \| keyword 'Cory Mills': no matches \| keyword 'resign House': ok \| keyword 'expelled House': ok
polymarket_related	OK	0.9s	5	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 5 matches. keyword 'Cory Mills': 0 markets \| keyword 'Mills resign': 5 markets \| keyword 'expelled from House': 0 markets
article_search	OK	46.9s	18	Fetched 18 unique articles across 5 queries (lookback=60d). 'Cory Mills ethics committee investigation': 10 articles \| 'Cory Mills resign': 10 articles \| 'Cory Mills censure expulsion Nancy Mace': 10 articles \| 'Cory Mills assault allegation investigation': 10 articles \| 'Cory Mills reelection 2026
claude_news	OK	28.4s	11	## Findings: Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) — Status as of Late Aug/Sept 2026 - Lost his primary (Aug 18, 2026): Mills lost his primary in Florida, NBC News projects, amid a swirl of investigations and negative publicity and despite running with the backing of President Donald Trump, facing House Ethi
gdelt_news	OK	165.6s	30	GDELT: 30 articles across 3 queries (lookback=30d). 'Cory Mills congressman': 10 hits \| 'Cory Mills ethics': 10 hits \| 'Cory Mills resign': 10 hits
court_docket	OK	3.5s	10	Found 10 results for 'Cory Mills' (type=r).
wikipedia	OK	0.6s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	45.4s	0	## Base Rate Analysis: House Ethics Investigations → Early Departure (2011–2025) Sample (n=11): Santos, Gaetz, Fortenberry, Hastings, Conyers, Farenthold, Franks, Meehan, Hunter, Collins, Grimm Overall departure rates: - 10/11 (91%) eventually left the House before their next scheduled

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6664 chars

# Current state Cory Mills remains a sitting House member; he lost his GOP primary (Aug 18, 2026) and will leave via natural term expiration in Jan 2027 regardless, but the question asks whether he departs (resignation, expulsion, or other removal) *before* Nov 3, 2026. As of the latest reporting (early Sept 2026), no resignation has been announced, no expulsion/censure vote against Mills has occurred, and the House Ethics Committee investigation remains open with no final report issued. # Timeline of key events - 2025-02: DC Metropolitan Police investigated an assault allegation by an ex-girlfriend against Mills; no charges filed (confirmed, ethics.house.gov). - 2025-10: A judge granted a restraining order against Mills sought by a former girlfriend (confirmed, Courthouse News). - 2025-11-19: House Ethics Committee established an Investigative Subcommittee on Mills, issuing 20+ subpoenas (confirmed, ethics.house.gov). - 2026-05-11: Ethics Committee calls allegations "serious and complex"; no final report yet. Rep. Nancy Mace reportedly planning an expulsion push but had not forced a vote; Mills said he's confident she lacks the votes (reported, Axios). - 2026-04 (per CNN retrospective): Mills explicitly told CNN he would not resign, citing Speaker Johnson's advice to stay (confirmed via CNN, Aug 19 article). - 2026-08-14: Gov. DeSantis publicly withheld support from Mills ahead of the primary (confirmed, WaPo). - 2026-08-18: Mills lost the GOP primary to Ryan Elijah, 34%–46% (confirmed, multiple outlets: NBC, CBS, NPR, WaPo, ABC). - 2026-08-19: Trump claims he told Mills to drop out; no indication Mills plans early departure (confirmed reporting of claim, CNN). - 2026-08-31: Reports that Mills is "MIA," staff reportedly unable to locate him post-loss (reported, Raw Story — unverified/tabloid-style). - 2026-09-01/02: House votes to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards (unrelated case) amid broader wave of misconduct scrutiny referencing Mills as a parallel, unresolved case (confirmed, NPR/AP wire). - 2026-09-02: Democrats highlight a new ethics complaint against Ryan Elijah (the man who beat Mills) — tangential, not affecting Mills' status (reported, NY Post). # Event Will Cory Mills leave the House (resign, be expelled, or otherwise depart) before Nov 3, 2026 (midterms)? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (leaves before Nov 3, 2026) - No (remains in House through Nov 3, 2026) # Kalshi market anchor KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03: **Current YES price 19%**, down 1pt over 7 days and down 3pts over 30 days. Price has ranged 10%–42% over 40 days of trading, average daily volume only 87 contracts (thin market). Trend is modestly declining, suggesting fading expectation of near-term departure. # Resolution source Not run (no dedicated resolution_source tool output provided). # Sub-question answers 1. **Ethics Committee status** — Investigative Subcommittee formed Nov 2025, 20+ subpoenas issued; as of May 2026 no final report; no confirmed report date before Nov 2026 (ethics.house.gov, Axios). 2. **Criminal/DOJ investigations** — DC police investigated a Feb 2025 assault allegation but declined to charge; DOJ is separately investigating Mills' finances; no indictment reported to date (NBC News, ethics.house.gov). 3. **Censure/expulsion effort** — Mace reportedly planned an expulsion push but had not forced a vote as of May 2026; Mills claims she lacks votes; no floor vote against Mills has occurred (Axios). By contrast, Rep. Chuck Edwards (different case) was censured Sept 1, 2026. 4. **Re-election/other office plans** — Mills ran for re-election in FL-7 but lost the GOP primary Aug 18, 2026; no reporting of him pursuing another office or administration post; he has explicitly refused to resign despite Trump/party pressure (CNN, NPR). 5. **Base rate** — Code-execution analysis of 11 historical House ethics scandals (2011–2025) shows ~91% eventual departure, but for non-indicted cases (most analogous to Mills) ~83% left within ~9 months of scandal peak; analyst discounts this to a calibrated ~35–55% for a Mills-specific 9-month window given weaker/contested evidence and no forced-resignation trigger yet. 6. **Market pricing** — Kalshi prices Yes at 19%, declining; no Polymarket market exists for Mills specifically (searches returned unrelated General Mills earnings-call markets). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia/NBC] Mills lost 2026 GOP primary to Ryan Elijah (Aug 18, 2026). 2. [ethics.house.gov] Ethics Investigative Subcommittee active since Nov 2025; no final report as of latest update. 3. [CNN] Mills explicitly refused to resign as of April/Aug 2026, citing Speaker Johnson's support. 4. [Axios] No expulsion/censure vote against Mills has passed; Mace's effort stalled. 5. [NBC/ethics.house.gov] DOJ investigating Mills' finances; no charges filed to date. 6. [Kalshi] Court docket search found no relevant federal criminal case for Cory Mills (unrelated namesakes only). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: Speaker market (Jeffries 86%) and House control markets show no Mills-specific arbitrage signal. - Polymarket: No market exists for Cory Mills; searches returned only unrelated "General Mills" earnings-call markets. - Sportsbook implied: None available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Rawstory (Aug 31) speculates Mills is disengaged/absent post-loss — unverified, could presage informal exit but not framed as resignation. - Historical base-rate model (code_execution) suggests moderate-high (35–55%) probability of departure within 9 months of scandal peak for non-indicted cases, but flags Mills' case as weaker/less clear-cut than precedents like Gaetz or Fortenberry. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Ongoing ethics/DOJ probes, primary loss removing political incentive to stay, historical precedent of scandal-plagued members resigning (Gonzales, Swalwell) — but no concrete trigger yet. - **No**: Mills has repeatedly and explicitly refused to resign, Speaker Johnson reportedly backing him staying, no expulsion/censure vote scheduled or passed, no indictment, Kalshi trending down (19%, -3pt/30d). # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed timeline for Ethics Committee final report. - Unclear whether DOJ investigation could produce charges before Nov 2026. - Mace's expulsion effort status post-August primary loss unreported. - "MIA" reports uncorroborated by mainstream outlets. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 19% (declining trend). - Historical base rate: ~35–55% calibrated estimate for departure within comparable window (non-indicted ethics cases), but discounted given Mills' explicit refusal and lack of forcing event.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	16%
No	84%

Kalshi prices YES at 19% and has been drifting down (-3pts/30d), reflecting fading expectations of an early exit. Mills has explicitly and repeatedly refused to resign (CNN, Apr/Aug 2026), reportedly with Speaker Johnson's encouragement, and no expulsion or censure vote has been scheduled; expulsion requires a two-thirds majority that Mace's stalled effort has not approached. The remaining window is only ~2 months, the Ethics Committee has no announced report date, and there is no indictment or federal criminal docket entry that would create a forcing trigger. The main YES paths are a sudden ethics report plus expulsion push or a lame-duck resignation after the primary loss (unverified 'MIA' reports hint at disengagement), which together justify staying near but slightly below the market anchor.

claude-fable-5-1

57% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

Only ~2 months remain before Nov 3, and every forcing mechanism is absent: no Ethics Committee final report timeline, no indictment (DOJ finance probe ongoing but no charges, no court docket), and no scheduled censure/expulsion vote — expulsion needs 2/3 and Mace's effort stalled. Mills has explicitly and repeatedly refused to resign, with Speaker Johnson reportedly wanting him to stay given the thin GOP margin; his primary loss removes political incentive to stay but also removes leadership's leverage to push him out before the election since he's already a lame duck. The historical ~35–55% base rate covers 'eventual departure' over ~9 months and mostly captures non-reelection rather than mid-term resignation in a 2-month window, so it overstates the risk here. Kalshi at 19% (declining, thin volume) is a reasonable anchor; I shade slightly below it because the only plausible Yes paths (surprise resignation, sudden indictment plus resignation) are individually low-probability on this timescale.

claude-fable-5-1

58% conf

Yes	16%
No	84%

Kalshi prices Yes at 19% and has been drifting down (-3pts/30d), reflecting no forcing event: the Ethics Committee has issued no final report, DOJ has filed no charges, and Mace's expulsion push stalled with Mills claiming she lacks the votes (expulsion requires 2/3, historically only following conviction or a damning Ethics report). Mills has explicitly and repeatedly refused to resign despite Trump/DeSantis pressure, citing Speaker Johnson's backing, and losing the Aug 18 primary removes electoral leverage against him while leaving only ~2 months in the window. The main Yes paths are a surprise Ethics report or indictment prompting resignation, or a quiet early exit signaled by the unverified 'MIA' reports; these are real but low-probability on this timescale, so I sit slightly below the market anchor.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	15%
No	85%

The Kalshi anchor is 19% YES, but its declining trend and the short remaining window support a modest downward adjustment. The open Ethics Committee and DOJ investigations create departure risk, yet neither has produced a final report, indictment, or scheduled expulsion vote. Mills has explicitly refused to resign, reportedly retains Speaker Johnson's support, and expulsion would require a difficult two-thirds House vote. His primary loss reduces his incentive to preserve the seat, but the cited 35–55% scandal base rate covers a much longer nine-month window and is therefore less applicable before Nov. 3.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	17%
No	83%

The 19% Kalshi YES price is the primary anchor, though the market is thin and has declined by 3 points over 30 days. The open Ethics Committee and DOJ investigations create departure risk, but neither has produced a final report, indictment, or scheduled vote that could force Mills out before November 3. Mills has explicitly refused to resign, reportedly retains Speaker Johnson's support, and the attempted expulsion push has not advanced, all pointing toward No. His primary loss weakens his incentive to remain, but the short remaining window and absence of a concrete trigger justify moving slightly below the market to 17% YES.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

16% (62% confidence)

Yes: 16% No: 84%

Mean of 5 draws (0.16, 0.14, 0.16, 0.15, 0.17). Kalshi prices YES at 19% and has been drifting down (-3pts/30d), reflecting fading expectations of an early exit. Mills has explicitly and repeatedly refused to resign (CNN, Apr/Aug 2026), reportedly with Speaker Johnson's encouragement, and no expulsion or censure vote has been scheduled; expulsion requires a two-thirds majority that Mace's stalled effort has not approached. The remaining window is only ~2 months, the Ethics Committee has no announced report date, and there is no indictment or federal criminal docket entry that would create a forcing trigger. The main YES paths are a sudden ethics report plus expulsion push or a lame-duck resignation after the primary loss (unverified 'MIA' reports hint at disengagement), which together justify staying near but slightly below the market anchor.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 233.2s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.