Scan: Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-29	35%	39%	52%
2026-08-22	32%	30%	53%
2026-08-15	28%	38%	49%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related resolution_source claude_news article_search gdelt_news crypto code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Has Extended (extendedapp / extended.exchange) already launched or announced a token, TGE date, or points-to-token conversion, and what is the status as of now?
What is Extended's current trading volume, open interest, TVL, and funding/valuation (e.g., last private round valuation) relative to peer perp DEXs?
What total token supply and initial circulating/airdrop allocation has been announced or leaked, and what pre-market/OTC or points-market implied FDV exists (e.g., Whales Market, Aevo pre-launch, Hyperliquid pre-market)?
What FDVs did comparable perp DEX tokens (Hyperliquid HYPE, Lighter, Aster, Paradex, Avantis, GRVT, edgeX) hit one day after launch, and what fraction exceeded $300M?
What are the current prices of the sibling Polymarket markets for other Extended FDV thresholds, and what probability do they imply for the token launching at all before Dec 31, 2026?
What is the current state of the crypto market (BTC/ETH/STRK/HYPE trend), which strongly conditions launch-day valuations?

Planner reasoning

Extended (formerly X10) is a Starknet-based perpetuals DEX rumored to launch a token; the question hinges on (a) whether a token launches before end-2026, (b) total supply and launch pricing/airdrop structure, and (c) comparable perp-DEX token FDVs one day post-launch (Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster, Paradex, etc.) as base rates. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor, with sibling FDV-threshold markets giving an implied distribution.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.4s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? - Current price (probability): 39.00% - 7-day price change: +2.50% - 30-day price change: +7.50% - Total volume: $1,447,924 (USD notional) - Price range: 31.50% - 52.50% - Data points: 91 days
polymarket_related	OK	0.8s	9	Polymarket search over 4 keyword(s), kept 9 matches. keyword 'Extended FDV': 7 markets \| keyword 'Extended token': 2 markets \| keyword 'FDV one day after launch': 0 markets \| keyword 'perp DEX token': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	0.9s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Extended token': no matches \| keyword 'FDV launch': ok
resolution_source	OK	5.3s	1	already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=Docs page states 'Last updated 24 days ago' (exact date unknown); X posts dated up to Sep 18 (year unspecified, presumably 2025).. The fetched pages show Extended's website, docs, and X profile describing the perpetuals DEX product (XVS
claude_news	OK	27.2s	18	## Findings: Extended (X10) Token Launch & Comparables Extended tokenomics/status: - No TGE date confirmed yet. Extended has capped final program points at 70 million after slashing, while current weekly distributions can reach up to 600,000 points, and the team has said TGE is expected shortl
article_search	OK	47.8s	36	Fetched 36 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=90d). 'Extended exchange token launch TGE': 10 articles \| 'Extended perp DEX Starknet token airdrop': 10 articles \| 'perp DEX token launch FDV Lighter Aster Paradex': 10 articles \| 'Extended X10 perpetuals volume': 10 articles
gdelt_news	OK	157.2s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Extended exchange token': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'Starknet perp DEX token launch': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'Lighter token launch FDV': 10 hits
crypto	FAILED	0.5s	0	http error: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin%2Cethereum%2Cstarknet%2Chyperliquid%2Caster-2&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=
code_execution	OK	56.0s	0	## Key Findings - Historical base rate: Across 12 comparable perp-DEX/derivatives token launches (Hyperliquid ~$5.2B, Jupiter Perps ~$4.0B, Aster ~$1.8B, dYdX ~$0.95B, Aevo ~$0.75B, ApeX ~$0.40B, Drift ~$0.33B, Vertex ~$0.21B, GNS ~$0.11B, MUX ~$55M, Level ~$30M, GMX ~$45M), 58.3% had day-1

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6105 chars

# Event Will Extended's (extended.exchange perp DEX) token have a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) exceeding $300M at 4:00 PM ET on the day following its public launch (resolves No if no launch by Dec 31, 2026)? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (FDV > $300M one day post-launch) - No (FDV ≤ $300M or no launch by Dec 31, 2026) # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct data was returned for this ticker (tool did not execute / no result). The only related Kalshi markets found (GTA VI radio songs, Starship-to-Mars) are unrelated comparables with no bearing on pricing. **Primary available anchor is Polymarket**, since this event is cross-listed there under an identical question. # Resolution source Fetched extended.exchange, docs.extended.exchange, and x.com/extendedapp. None mention a token launch date, price, supply, or FDV. Docs reference "XVS" only as part of a Community Vault collateral model — no confirmation this is the launch token. Page states "last updated 24 days ago" (exact date unclear); X content dated up to ~Sep 18 (year unclear, presumed 2025). No live price source was checked (e.g., CoinGecko/CMC), so status of an actual token launch cannot be confirmed from resolution-source data alone. Already_resolved = unclear; matches_criteria = False. # Sub-question answers 1. **Launch status** — No TGE date confirmed. Points program capped at 70M points post-slashing; weekly distributions up to 600K points; team says TGE expected "shortly after" points program ends, no exact date (usethebitcoin.com). Sibling Polymarket market "Will Extended launch by Dec 31 2026?" prices 81.9% Yes, implying launch is likely but not certain within window. 2. **Scale/valuation vs peers** — Extended has >$100M TVL (recent snapshot: $208.5M TVL, ~$10.3B weekly volume), cumulative perp volume >$92B (coinlaunch.space, bitget.com). Funding: $6.5M seed (Tioga, Semantic, Cherry, StarkWare, Cyber Fund) + $12.5M strategic round led by eToro w/ Jump Crypto, Alber Blanc (closed 2026-07-02), total $19M raised. Notably, team reportedly **declined additional funding at $300M+ FDV** (usethebitcoin.com) — a private-market signal it may already be valued above $300M pre-TGE. 3. **Supply/allocation** — ~30% of supply allocated to points-program community, per unconfirmed reports (not officially finalized tokenomics). No hard total supply number or credible OTC/pre-market implied FDV found. 4. **Comparable launches** — Hyperliquid ~$3.9–5.2B day-1 FDV (Nov 2024); Aster ~$2.2B (day-1) up to $5.7B+ later (Sept 2025); Lighter estimated ~$5B FDV (pre-launch estimates). Broader 12-token historical sample (code_execution): 58.3% of comparable derivatives-token launches exceeded $300M day-1 FDV; lognormal fit puts median ≈$367M, implied P(>$300M)≈54.7%. Extended is smaller/lower-hype than HYPE/Aster/Lighter. 5. **Sibling Polymarket markets** — $150M: 76.5% Yes; $300M: 39% Yes (this market); $500M: 22%; $800M: 7.5%; $1B: 4.45%; $2B: 2.95%; $3B: 2.1%. "Launch by Sep 30 2026": 0.6% Yes (effectively resolved No); "Launch by Dec 31 2026": 81.9% Yes — implies most probability mass on launch happening but later in 2026, and FDV distribution skews well below the "mega" comps. 6. **Macro crypto backdrop** — CoinGecko fetch failed (429). Narrative from news: BTC fell >40% from Oct peak into a "crypto winter," then rebounded >20% in a week, briefly topping $80K (per CNBC, Aug 2026) — choppy, recovering market. This creates valuation uncertainty for a late-2026 launch. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [polymarket_direct] Current Polymarket YES price for this exact market: 39%, up +2.5% (7d), +7.5% (30d); volume $1.45M; range 31.5%–52.5% over 91 days. 2. [claude_news] Extended reportedly turned down funding at $300M+ FDV, but final tokenomics/supply unconfirmed. 3. [claude_news] Extended TVL ~$100–208M, weekly volume ~$10.3B — smaller than Hyperliquid/Aster/Lighter tier. 4. [polymarket_related] Sibling "Launch by Dec 31 2026" market: 81.9% Yes. 5. [resolution_source] No public confirmation yet of actual TGE date, supply, or live token price. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no direct comparable market found. - Polymarket: this market at 39% YES; monotonic decay across FDV buckets ($150M:76.5% → $3B:2.1%) is internally consistent, suggesting an efficient, well-calibrated curve rather than mispricing. - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - claude_news synthesis: comparable "mega" perp DEX launches (HYPE, Aster, Lighter) all cleared $300M easily, but Extended is meaningfully smaller in TVL/volume/hype, tempering expectations. - code_execution model: blended conditional P(FDV>$300M | launched) ≈49%, combined with ~80% launch probability by year-end → P(Yes) ≈39%, closely matching Polymarket's 39% price — cross-validating the market. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Declined $300M+ FDV private round; strong TVL/volume growth; historical comps mostly clear $300M threshold; up-trending Polymarket price (+7.5% 30d). - **No**: Extended is smaller/less hyped than HYPE/Aster/Lighter; no confirmed TGE date increases risk of late/no launch inside window (though 82% think it launches by Dec 31); broader market skepticism reflected in sub-50% pricing across all FDV thresholds ≥$300M; crypto market volatility (recent 40% BTC drawdown) adds downside risk to launch-day valuations. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed TGE date, token supply, or allocation schedule. - No live token price/FDV data (resolution source didn't reach a price aggregator). - Kalshi's own YES price for this ticker unavailable in research — reliance on Polymarket cross-market proxy only. - BTC/ETH/macro conditions at hypothetical launch date unknown (crypto tool failed). # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (best available cross-market anchor): 39%, stable/rising over 30 days. - Model-based estimate (code_execution): ~39% central, plausible range 30–45%. - Historical base rate for comparable perp-DEX tokens clearing $300M day-1 FDV: ~55–58%, but Extended is a smaller/lower-hype project than the historical mega-launches driving that rate.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

47% conf

Yes	40%
No	60%

No Kalshi-direct price exists, so the best anchor is the identical Polymarket market at 39% YES, which the brief's independent model cross-validates (~49% conditional on launch × ~80% launch-by-Dec-31 ≈ 39%). The monotonic sibling curve ($150M: 76.5% → $500M: 22%) looks efficient, and the ~18% risk of no TGE inside the window is a hard drag on Yes. Mild upside comes from the report that the team declined funding at $300M+ FDV plus strong TVL (~$200M) and ~$10B weekly volume, and a 30d uptrend in the price, but Extended is clearly a tier below HYPE/Aster/Lighter and tokenomics/supply remain unconfirmed. I stay essentially at the market with a slight nudge up for the private-valuation signal.

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	40%
No	60%

No Kalshi-direct price was available, so the best anchor is the identical Polymarket market at 39% YES (rising +7.5% over 30d, $1.45M volume) with an internally consistent FDV bucket curve ($150M: 76.5%, $500M: 22%). The independent code_execution model also lands at ~39% (≈82% launch-by-Dec-31 × ≈49% conditional P(FDV>$300M)), cross-validating the market. Bullish signals include the team reportedly declining a private round at $300M+ FDV and strong TVL/volume ($208M TVL, ~$10B weekly), while Extended remains far smaller than HYPE/Aster/Lighter and lacks any confirmed TGE date or tokenomics, leaving ~18% no-launch risk plus choppy macro conditions. I nudge marginally above the anchor to 40% given the private-valuation signal, but otherwise defer to the market.

claude-fable-5-1

50% conf

Yes	40%
No	60%

No Kalshi-direct price was available, so the best anchor is the identical Polymarket market at 39% YES, which sits on an internally consistent FDV curve ($150M: 76.5%, $500M: 22%) and is cross-validated by the brief's model (~49% conditional on launch × ~82% launch-by-Dec-31 ≈ 39%). Supporting Yes: Extended reportedly declined a private round at $300M+ FDV and has substantial traction ($200M TVL, ~$10B weekly volume), and roughly 55-58% of comparable perp-DEX launches cleared $300M day-1. Weighing against: no confirmed TGE date (meaningful no-launch/late-launch risk), Extended is a tier below HYPE/Aster/Lighter in hype and scale, and a choppy post-drawdown crypto market adds valuation downside. I stay close to the market at 0.40, nudging slightly up for the private-round signal and rising 30-day price trend.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	39%
No	61%

The best available market anchor is Polymarket at 39% Yes, with $1.45M volume and an internally consistent curve across other FDV thresholds. The 81.9% probability of launching by Dec. 31, 2026, combined with an estimated 49% conditional chance of exceeding $300M if launched, implies approximately 40% overall. Strong volume, $100M–$208M TVL, and the reported rejection of funding at a $300M+ FDV support Yes, but Extended's lower scale and hype than major perp-DEX comparables temper that evidence. With no confirmed TGE date, tokenomics, supply, or price, there is insufficient unpriced information to move materially from the 39% anchor.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	39%
No	61%

No Kalshi-direct price is available, so the strongest anchor is the identical Polymarket contract at 39% YES, supported by $1.45M in volume and an internally consistent FDV-threshold curve. The 81.9% probability of launching by Dec. 31, 2026, combined with an estimated 49% conditional chance of exceeding $300M if launched, implies roughly 40% overall. Extended's reported rejection of funding at a $300M+ FDV and substantial TVL and volume support Yes, while its smaller scale and lower hype than major perp-DEX comparables support No. Unconfirmed tokenomics, no firm launch date, and a volatile crypto backdrop leave meaningful uncertainty but do not justify moving materially from the market anchor.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

40% (59% confidence)

Yes: 40% No: 60%

Mean of 5 draws (0.40, 0.40, 0.40, 0.39, 0.39). No Kalshi-direct price exists, so the best anchor is the identical Polymarket market at 39% YES, which the brief's independent model cross-validates (~49% conditional on launch × ~80% launch-by-Dec-31 ≈ 39%). The monotonic sibling curve ($150M: 76.5% → $500M: 22%) looks efficient, and the ~18% risk of no TGE inside the window is a hard drag on Yes. Mild upside comes from the report that the team declined funding at $300M+ FDV plus strong TVL (~$200M) and ~$10B weekly volume, and a 30d uptrend in the price, but Extended is clearly a tier below HYPE/Aster/Lighter and tokenomics/supply remain unconfirmed. I stay essentially at the market with a slight nudge up for the private-valuation signal.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 224.9s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.