Scan: Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Which U.S. states have introduced bills in 2025-2026 sessions that would impose a statewide moratorium or pause on new data center approvals, permitting, construction, or grid interconnection (e.g., Georgia, Virginia, Michigan, Indiana, Oregon, Arizona, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New York), and what is each bill's current legislative status?
Has any such bill passed at least one chamber or advanced out of committee, and are any scheduled for floor votes before the relevant legislature adjourns?
Which state legislatures are still in session (or have scheduled special sessions) between now and December 31, 2026, such that a moratorium bill could still be enacted this year?
Have governors in the relevant states expressed support or opposition to a data center moratorium, and is a veto or veto override likely?
Has any state already enacted legislation pausing a defined category of new data centers (e.g., large-load grid connections, water-intensive facilities) that could plausibly satisfy the market's broad definition?
Historically, how often do statewide moratorium bills on a booming industry (e.g., crypto mining in New York 2022) actually get enacted versus dying in committee, and how does the Polymarket price compare to that base rate?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question about state legislation, so the market price is the primary anchor, and the key empirical work is tracking which state moratorium bills exist, how far they've advanced, whether legislatures remain in session through 2026, and whether governors would sign. The definition is fairly broad (any defined category, grid-connection pauses count), so I also need to check whether something narrower has already been enacted that could trigger Yes.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31? - Current price (probability): 44.50% - 7-day price change: -29.20% - 30-day price change: -24.80% - Total volume: $15,069 (USD notional) - Price range: 25.95% - 93.95% - Data points: 72 days
polymarket_related	OK	0.4s	9	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 9 matches. keyword 'data center': 4 markets \| keyword 'moratorium': 5 markets \| keyword 'data center ban': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	4.8s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center': ok \| keyword 'moratorium': no matches \| keyword 'AI data center ban': ok
article_search	OK	46.6s	18	Fetched 18 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=60d). 'state data center moratorium bill': 10 articles \| 'legislature pause new data centers statewide': 10 articles \| 'governor signs data center moratorium': 10 articles \| 'data center moratorium passes senate house committee': 10 articles
claude_news	OK	30.9s	14	Here are the key findings on state data center moratorium legislation for 2025-2026: - New York — executive order enacted; legislative bill still pending. Governor Kathy Hochul signed an Executive Order to create the nation's first moratorium on new hyperscale data centers, temporarily pausing
gdelt_news	OK	162.4s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=45d). 'data center moratorium state legislature': 10 hits \| 'moratorium on new data centers bill': 10 hits \| 'data center pause governor': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
wikipedia	OK	0.3s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (2 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	60.3s	0	## Findings Full candidate pool (16 bills: 6 passed a chamber @0.05–0.15, 10 introduced-only @0.01–0.03) - Independence assumption: P(≥1 enacted) ≈ 48.0% - Moderate correlation via shared political-climate factor (Beta(2,2) multiplier, mean 1): P(≥1) ≈ 45.9% — correlation modestly *redu

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7862 chars

# Current state The market's fate hinges primarily on New York: the legislature passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act (A11560/S10642) in June 2026, but Gov. Hochul has neither signed nor vetoed it as of mid-September 2026, with a decision reportedly expected by year-end. She already imposed a *de facto* moratorium via Executive Order (not legislation) in July 2026. No other state has enacted a qualifying legislative moratorium; Maine's bill was vetoed and the override failed. # Timeline of key events - 2026-04-24 (confirmed): Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoes LD 307, which would have imposed an 18-month statewide moratorium on data centers >20MW. - 2026-04-29 (confirmed): Maine legislature's veto-override attempt fails 20–11 in the Senate (short of 2/3). - 2026-06 (confirmed): NY Senate and Assembly both pass the Responsible Data Center Development Act; sent to Gov. Hochul for signature. - 2026-07-14 (confirmed): Hochul signs Executive Order 62, a one-year executive moratorium on state environmental permits for hyperscale data centers ≥50MW — an executive action, not legislation. - 2026-08 (reported): Oregon Democratic lawmakers propose a 3-year statewide moratorium bill; still in early legislative stage. - 2026-09-03 (reported): NH Gov. Kelly Ayotte says she will pursue a multi-year moratorium via her FY2027 budget or executive order if needed — not yet enacted. - 2026-09-10/11 (confirmed): Oregon Gov. Kotek issues executive pause on data-center development on state-owned land only (not a statewide legislative moratorium on new data centers generally). - 2026-09 (mid, reported): Hochul still undecided on signing/vetoing NY's legislative moratorium bill; decision expected by year-end 2026. - Ongoing (reported): OK SB1488, SC H.5286/H.5526, VT S.205, SD SB232/HB1301, PA (Sen. Muth proposal) — all introduced or in committee, none advanced to floor passage as of research cutoff. # Event Will any U.S. state enact statewide legislation establishing a moratorium on new data centers (approval/permitting/construction/grid connection) by Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes - No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct price was returned by the tools for this ticker; only Polymarket data is available for the identical question. Polymarket YES price: **44.5%**, down sharply from a 7-day-ago level (7d change: -29.2pp) and 30-day high of 93.95% (30d change: -24.8pp). Range over 72 days: 25.95%–93.95%. Volume is thin ($15,069 total). Treat 44.5% as the best available consensus anchor in absence of a Kalshi print; the steep decline suggests the market recently downgraded odds of NY's Hochul signing the pending bill or other states advancing. # Resolution source Not run (no resolution_source tool output provided). # Sub-question answers 1. **Which states have live moratorium bills, and status?** — NY (passed both chambers, awaiting governor's signature/veto, mid-Sept 2026); Maine (passed, vetoed, override failed — dead); Oklahoma SB1488, South Carolina H.5286/H.5526, Vermont S.205, South Dakota SB232/HB1301, Oregon (proposed Aug 2026), Pennsylvania (Sen. Muth proposal) — all introduced/committee stage, none passed both chambers. [claude_news, gdelt_news] 2. **Passed a chamber / scheduled floor votes?** — Only NY's bill has cleared both chambers (June 2026) and awaits gubernatorial action; no other tracked bill has passed even one chamber per available research. [claude_news] 3. **Legislatures still in session through Dec 31, 2026?** — Not directly confirmed; many state sessions (SC, VT, SD, OK, PA) typically adjourn mid-year, reducing odds of new floor action before year-end; NY's decision rests solely with the governor now (no further legislative action needed if she signs). [inference from claude_news] 4. **Governor support/opposition & veto risk?** — Hochul: undecided, weighing viability, decision expected by year-end (key swing factor). Mills (ME): vetoed but said she'd have signed with an exemption — override failed. Abbott (TX) and other governors have embraced "pauses" but no statewide legislative moratorium has cleared TX legislature. Kotek (OR) and Ayotte (NH) favor pauses but via executive/budget action, not enacted statute. [claude_news, article_search] 5. **Any state already enacted a qualifying law?** — NY has an *executive* order moratorium (EO 62, July 2026) — likely does NOT satisfy the market's "enacted legislation ... approval by governor" requirement since it's not a bill signed into law; the actual bill remains pending. No state has enacted qualifying legislation yet per research cutoff. [claude_news] 6. **Historical base rate vs. market price?** — Crypto-mining moratorium analog (NY 2022) suggests roughly 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 bills historically succeed; code_execution modeling using this and current bill counts (16 candidates, 6 chamber-passed) yields P(≥1 enacted) estimates ranging ~33%–46% (bottom-up) to ~72–75% (top-down extrapolation), bracketing the Polymarket price of 44.5%, which sits near the lower/bottom-up estimate. [code_execution, claude_news] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [claude_news] NY legislature passed a statewide moratorium bill (June 2026); Hochul undecided as of mid-Sept, decision due by year-end. 2. [claude_news] Maine's moratorium bill was vetoed (Apr 24, 2026) and the override failed (Apr 29, 2026) — will NOT satisfy resolution. 3. [claude_news] NY's Executive Order 62 (July 14, 2026) is an executive—not legislative—pause; unclear if it would count under market rules (rules require legislative enactment). 4. [claude_news/gdelt] Multiple states (OK, SC, VT, SD, OR, PA) have moratorium bills that are only introduced or in committee, with no floor passage confirmed. 5. [gdelt] Oregon Gov. Kotek's pause and NH Gov. Ayotte's stated intent are executive/budgetary, not enacted statutes. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXDATACENTER-30 (nuclear-powered data center on military base before 2030) at 53% — unrelated proxy, limited relevance. - Polymarket (same question): 44.5%, sharp recent downward trend (-29pp in 7 days), suggesting fading conviction that NY's bill will be signed or another state will act. - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Rockefeller Institute and Good Jobs First trackers frame 2026 as a wave year (300+ bills, 30+ states) but note most stall in committee — consistent with historical crypto-mining precedent of low individual pass rates. - CNN/NPR framing: data centers are a "bipartisan" midterm issue pushing governors toward pauses, but political momentum has centered on executive action, not legislation, likely because it's faster and avoids veto risk. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: NY's passed bill is one signature away from enactment; Hochul has shown willingness to act on data centers (EO 62); high political salience nationwide increases pressure for some state to formalize a law before year-end. - **No**: Hochul remains undecided/cautious; Maine precedent shows override difficulty and governor wariness of blanket bans; most other bills are early-stage with adjourned sessions; Polymarket price recently fell sharply, signaling growing skepticism. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi YES price was retrieved — analysis relies on Polymarket as sole quantitative anchor. - Unclear whether NY's Executive Order would satisfy the "enacted legislation" resolution criterion if Hochul never signs the bill. - No confirmation of exact 2026 adjournment dates for OK, SC, VT, SD, PA legislatures. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (best available anchor): 44.5%, down from a 30-day high of ~94%. - Historical crypto-mining moratorium base rate (NY 2022 analog): ~7-10% per-bill enactment odds; extrapolated across ~16 candidate bills, gives wide model range (33%–75%) bracketing the market price.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

42% conf

Yes	47%
No	53%

The outcome rests almost entirely on Gov. Hochul's decision on NY's Responsible Data Center Development Act, which passed both chambers in June 2026 and awaits action by year-end; no other state has a bill past even one chamber, and Maine's attempt died on a failed override. Hochul's Executive Order 62 shows she supports a pause, but issuing an executive moratorium a month after the bill passed could signal she prefers a narrower substitute (veto or chapter-amendment risk), and the Polymarket price collapsed from ~94% to 44.5% recently, suggesting the market either downgraded her signing odds or learned the EO won't count. Bottom-up modeling in the brief (33–46%) brackets the market price, while the election-year salience and NY's end-of-year signing tradition keep Yes plausible. With no Kalshi print, I anchor near the 44.5% Polymarket consensus with a slight upward nudge for resolution ambiguity around the EO and Hochul's demonstrated sympathy for a moratorium.

claude-fable-5-1

40% conf

Yes	46%
No	54%

The outcome rests almost entirely on whether Gov. Hochul signs New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act, which cleared both chambers in June 2026 and awaits her action by year-end; every other tracked bill (OK, SC, VT, SD, OR, PA) is stuck in committee with sessions largely adjourned, and Maine's bill is dead after a failed override. Hochul's Executive Order 62 shows appetite for a pause but is not legislation and may signal she prefers executive action over a statutory ban (or wants chapter amendments), and the Polymarket price has collapsed from ~94% to 44.5% in a week, suggesting news the market read as bearish for a signature. Bottom-up modeling (~33–46%) brackets the market anchor, while NY's history of late-December bill actions and the bill being one signature away keep meaningful upside. With no Kalshi print, I anchor near the Polymarket 44.5% with a slight nudge for the pending NY bill and residual ambiguity about whether the EO could count.

claude-fable-5-1

44% conf

Yes	46%
No	54%

The outcome effectively reduces to a single event: whether Gov. Hochul signs New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act (passed both chambers in June 2026) before year-end, since every other tracked bill (OK, SC, VT, SD, PA, OR) is stuck in committee or faces adjourned sessions, Maine's bill is dead after the failed override, and NH/OR gubernatorial actions are executive/budgetary rather than statutory. Hochul has demonstrated willingness to act (EO 62's one-year pause, plus her 2022 crypto-mining moratorium signature), but the existing EO also gives her cover to veto as duplicative, and the brief reports she remains undecided with the Polymarket price collapsing from ~94% to 44.5% in recent weeks, signaling fading conviction. Base-rate modeling in the brief (33%–75%) brackets the market, and with no Kalshi print I anchor near the Polymarket 44.5%, nudging slightly toward Yes for the residual chance that loosely-specified rules treat the executive moratorium as qualifying. Thin volume and genuine gubernatorial uncertainty keep this close to a coin flip.

gpt-5.6-sol

66% conf

Yes	44%
No	56%

The 44.5% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor, and the evidence does not justify moving far from it. New York points toward Yes because its bill has passed both chambers and requires only Hochul’s signature, while her executive pause shows substantive concern about hyperscale data centers. However, her continued indecision and the possibility that the executive order substitutes for signing point toward No; Maine’s bill is dead, and all other identified legislative efforts remain too early or face likely adjournment. Because no qualifying statute has yet been enacted and executive actions probably do not count, I place YES just below the market anchor at 44%.

gpt-5.6-sol

66% conf

Yes	44%
No	56%

New York points toward Yes because its bill has cleared both chambers and requires only Gov. Hochul’s signature, while her executive pause shows substantive concern about data-center development. However, her continued indecision points toward No, and Maine’s failed override plus the lack of even one-chamber passage elsewhere leave few viable alternatives before year-end. Typical legislative adjournments and the reliance of Oregon and New Hampshire on executive rather than statutory action further limit other pathways. I therefore remain close to the 44.5% Polymarket consensus anchor, with a slight downward adjustment because the qualifying legislative route is effectively concentrated in one unresolved gubernatorial decision.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

45% (52% confidence)

Yes: 45% No: 55%

Mean of 5 draws (0.47, 0.46, 0.46, 0.44, 0.44). The outcome rests almost entirely on Gov. Hochul's decision on NY's Responsible Data Center Development Act, which passed both chambers in June 2026 and awaits action by year-end; no other state has a bill past even one chamber, and Maine's attempt died on a failed override. Hochul's Executive Order 62 shows she supports a pause, but issuing an executive moratorium a month after the bill passed could signal she prefers a narrower substitute (veto or chapter-amendment risk), and the Polymarket price collapsed from ~94% to 44.5% recently, suggesting the market either downgraded her signing odds or learned the EO won't count. Bottom-up modeling in the brief (33–46%) brackets the market price, while the election-year salience and NY's end-of-year signing tradition keep Yes plausible. With no Kalshi print, I anchor near the 44.5% Polymarket consensus with a slight upward nudge for resolution ambiguity around the EO and Hochul's demonstrated sympathy for a moratorium.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 252.8s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.