Scan: Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 116 ?

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related resolution_source article_search claude_news earnings_data fred polymarket_related code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Kalshi YES price for the 116 threshold and what do the neighboring thresholds in the KXAMZNCC-26OCT07 event imply about the market's expected value and distribution for September 2026?
What were the most recent Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend index values (e.g., August 2026, July 2026, and September 2025), and how have prior months in the KXAMZNCC series resolved?
What is the typical month-over-month change from August to September in this index, and what year-over-year growth rate would put September 2026 above 116?
Did Amazon run any major promotional events (Prime Day, Prime Big Deal Days, back-to-school deals) in September 2026, or shift its October event, that would materially raise or lower September card spend?
What do broader September 2026 US consumer spending indicators (Census retail sales, nonstore retail, card-spend trackers from Bank of America/Visa) and Amazon's latest earnings commentary say about e-commerce spending momentum?
Are there macro shocks (tariffs, gas prices, consumer confidence drops, recession signals) in Q3 2026 that would depress discretionary online spending relative to trend?

Planner reasoning

This is a Kalshi financial-data market resolving on a proprietary Carbon Arc index of Amazon credit card spend, so the key is anchoring on the current Kalshi price and sibling thresholds, then reconstructing the index's recent level, trend, and August-to-September seasonality. Amazon's promotional calendar (Prime Big Deal Days typically in October, not September) and macro consumer spending data provide secondary signals. We need to find any published Carbon Arc readings and prior-month Kalshi resolutions in the KXAMZNCC series to estimate the distribution around 116.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data Above 116 (KXAMZNCC-26OCT07-T116) - Current price (probability): 13.00% - 7-day price change: -6.00% - 30-day price change: -6.00% - Average daily volume: 1430 contracts - Price range: 13.00% - 20.00% - Data points: 7 days
kalshi_related	OK	1.6s	1	1 related markets / summaries. series KXAMZNCC: 0 markets (skipped 9 no-signal) \| keyword 'Amazon credit card spend': ok \| keyword 'Carbon Arc': no matches
resolution_source	OK	3.0s	1	already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is only the generic Carbon Arc homepage, which contains no specific data on Amazon Credit Card Spend index values for September 2026 or any other period.
article_search	OK	47.2s	35	Fetched 35 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=60d). 'Carbon Arc Amazon credit card spend index': 10 articles \| 'Amazon September 2026 sales consumer spending': 10 articles \| 'Amazon Prime Big Deal Days 2026 date': 10 articles \| 'US retail sales September 2026 e-commerce': 10 articles
claude_news	OK	27.5s	7	Based on available research, here are the key findings: - Structural break in the index (Aug 2026): The prediction market for Amazon's August 2026 monthly credit card spend significantly repriced lower, with the probability of finishing "Above 105" plummeting 56 percentage points from 64.0% to
earnings_data	OK	0.4s	1	Fetched FMP data for 1 ticker(s).
fred	OK	3.5s	6	Fetched 6 FRED series (lookback=730d) (via search 'nonstore retailers sales').
polymarket_related	OK	0.5s	5	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 5 matches. keyword 'Amazon': 5 markets \| keyword 'consumer spending': 0 markets \| keyword 'retail sales': 0 markets
code_execution	OK	35.7s	0	## Findings: Amazon Credit Card Spend Index — P(Sep 2026 > 116) Inputs used (research-based estimates, no live feed in sandbox): - Sep 2025 (YoY base): 108.0 - Recent trailing months: Jun 2026 = 111.5, Jul 2026 = 112.8, Aug 2026 = 114.0 (latest observed) - Recent average MoM growth: **~

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6760 chars

# Current state The Kalshi market KXAMZNCC-26OCT07-T116 asks whether the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend index for September 2026 will print above 116. The index underwent an apparent structural downshift in August 2026 due to Amazon's new advertiser billing system (removing credit-card-based B2B ad fee payments), pushing the "Above X" curve sharply lower; the market has not indicated any reversal catalyst for September. Kalshi YES on "Above 116" is currently priced at just 13%, down from ~19-20% over the past week/month. # Timeline of key events - 2025-09: Prior-year (Sep 2025) baseline period for YoY comparison — index level not directly confirmed in research (reported estimate ~108, low confidence). - 2026-08-01: Amazon's new advertiser billing system took effect, shifting a large share of seller/advertiser fees away from credit-card rails (confirmed via claude_news/Octagon reporting). - 2026-08 (mid-late): Kalshi's August 2026 KXAMZNCC market repriced sharply lower — "Above 105" fell from ~64% to ~8%, with probability mass concentrating in the "Above 102–104" range (93–99%) — implying actual/expected August print landed in the low-to-mid 100s (reported, Octagon AI). - 2026-09: No Amazon flagship sales event occurred in September 2026; seller deal submissions for the fall event closed in September (operational, not consumer-facing spend) (confirmed, aboutamazon.com/NBC/Today). - 2026-10-06/07: Prime Big Deal Days scheduled — falls entirely outside the September measurement window and outside this contract's window too, but confirms September itself carried no comparable promotional spend catalyst (confirmed). - Current (as of research date): Kalshi "Above 116" priced 13%, down 6pts over both 7-day and 30-day windows, avg daily volume ~1,430 contracts (confirmed, kalshi_direct). # Event Will the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend index for September 2026 be above 116 (Kalshi KXAMZNCC-26OCT07-T116)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes (index > 116) / No (index ≤ 116) # Kalshi market anchor YES priced at 13.00%; down 6 points over both the 7-day and 30-day windows (range 13–20%). Average daily volume ~1,430 contracts — reasonably liquid. This is a clear "No"-leaning consensus and the primary anchor for this forecast. # Resolution source Attempted fetch of Carbon Arc's site returned only generic homepage marketing copy with no index data; Kalshi market page fetch failed (HTTP 429). Status: unresolved/unclear, last_updated unknown. No independent confirmation of the actual September 2026 print is available from resolution-source tooling. # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi price/neighboring thresholds** — Above-116 priced at 13% (falling). No direct neighboring-threshold data was retrieved for the September contract specifically, but the code_execution tool's illustrative backed-out distribution (from unverified assumed strikes) suggested μ≈115.4, σ≈4.4 — this should be treated as low-confidence/simulated, not sourced data. 2. **Recent index values** — No verified numeric series for July/Aug/Sep 2025-26 was retrieved from a primary source. Secondary reporting (Octagon AI) indicates the August 2026 print concentrated in the "Above 102–104" range, i.e., roughly low-to-mid 100s — well below 116. 3. **Typical MoM change / YoY needed for >116** — Not directly sourced; would require an August base near 116+ with modest growth. Given August's structural reset to ~102–105, reaching >116 in September would require an implausible ~11-14% one-month jump absent a new catalyst. 4. **September 2026 promotions** — No major Amazon sales event in September; Prime Big Deal Days is Oct 6-7, 2026, outside this month's measurement (confirmed, aboutamazon.com). 5. **Broader consumer spending signals** — FRED retail sales (RSXFS) and nonstore retail (RSNSR) show steady MoM growth through Aug 2026 ($668.9B and $141.3B respectively, both up from July), suggesting healthy aggregate retail trend, but Michigan consumer sentiment is soft (55.2 in Jul 2026, historically depressed vs. 2025's ~55-58). No Amazon-specific earnings commentary was retrieved (FMP data blocked by 403 errors). 6. **Macro shocks** — Tariff/trade-war cost pressures and rewards-card-hedging articles (CNBC, Sep 2026) suggest affordability strain on consumers, a modest headwind to discretionary card spend. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [kalshi_direct] YES on Above-116 = 13%, down 6pts (7d & 30d). 2. [claude_news/Octagon] Amazon's advertiser billing system change (effective Aug 1, 2026) removed a multi-billion-dollar stream of B2B credit-card transactions, causing the August 2026 index to reprice sharply lower into the 102-105 range. 3. [aboutamazon.com] Prime Big Deal Days 2026 confirmed for Oct 6-7 — outside September. 4. [FRED] US retail sales (RSXFS) and nonstore retail (RSNSR) rose steadily through Aug 2026, no broad consumer pullback evident at the aggregate level. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No same-series neighboring strikes retrieved cleanly; unrelated Amazon markets (FTC monopoly case) show no useful signal. - Polymarket: Only Amazon capex markets found (all near-certain Yes on capex thresholds) — irrelevant to card spend. - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Octagon AI: structural, "permanent" downshift in the index due to billing-system change; expects the lower base to persist into September since displaced B2B ad-fee volume won't return to credit cards. - code_execution model: produced a competing ~45-50% estimate, but explicitly built on fabricated/assumed inputs (no live data), self-flagged as highly sensitive to unverified YoY growth assumptions — low reliability, contradicts both Kalshi price and the structural-break narrative. # Directional lean per outcome - **No (index ≤116)**: Strongly supported — Kalshi priced only 13% YES; structural billing change permanently lowered the base to ~102-105; no September promotional catalyst; consumer sentiment soft. - **Yes (index >116)**: Weak — only supported by an unverified/simulated model (code_execution) using assumed inputs not grounded in confirmed data; contradicted by the primary market price and structural news. # Gaps / unknowns - No verified actual numeric index values (Jun-Aug 2026) from Carbon Arc's primary data source. - No confirmation of the precise August 2026 print or Kalshi's September-specific neighboring strike prices. - Amazon Q3 earnings/management commentary not retrieved (FMP API blocked). # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 13% (primary anchor, trending down). - Precedent: August 2026 contract saw an even larger threshold (Above 105) collapse from 64% to 8% following the same structural shift — supports continued suppression into September.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

58% conf

Yes	10%
No	90%

Kalshi prices YES at 13% and has been drifting lower over both 7-day and 30-day windows, providing a clear No-leaning anchor. The Aug 1, 2026 advertiser billing change removed a large B2B credit-card stream, and the August contract's 'Above 105' collapsing from 64% to 8% implies an August print in the ~102-105 range; reaching >116 in September would require an implausible double-digit MoM jump with no promotional catalyst (Prime Big Deal Days is Oct 6-7, outside the window). The only contrary signal is a self-flagged simulated model built on fabricated inputs, which I discount heavily. I shade slightly below the market given the structural-break precedent and downward price trend, while leaving room for uncertainty since no primary Carbon Arc data was verified.

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	11%
No	89%

Kalshi prices YES on Above-116 at just 13% and has been drifting lower over both 7-day and 30-day windows, which is the primary anchor. The August 2026 billing-system change reportedly reset the index base to roughly 102-105 by removing B2B ad-fee card volume, and reaching >116 in September would require an implausible ~11-14% one-month jump with no Amazon promotional event in September (Prime Big Deal Days falls on Oct 6-7). The only contrary signal is a self-flagged simulated model built on assumed inputs, which I heavily discount. I shade slightly below the market given the structural narrative and downward price momentum, while leaving residual probability for unverified index mechanics (e.g., YoY-based construction) that could surprise.

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	11%
No	89%

Kalshi prices 'Above 116' at just 13% and falling (down 6pts over 7d and 30d), which is the primary anchor. The August 2026 billing-system change structurally removed B2B ad-fee card volume, pushing the August print into roughly the 102-105 range per secondary reporting, so exceeding 116 in September would require an ~11-14% one-month jump with no promotional catalyst (Prime Big Deal Days falls in October). Soft consumer sentiment and tariff-driven affordability strain add a mild headwind; the only pro-Yes signal is a self-flagged simulated model built on assumed inputs. I shade slightly below the market given the structural-break precedent (August 'Above 105' collapsed from 64% to 8%), but keep some probability for unverified index dynamics since no primary Carbon Arc data was retrieved.

gpt-5.6-sol

68% conf

Yes	12%
No	88%

The 13% Kalshi YES price is the primary anchor, and its decline from roughly 19–20% indicates strengthening consensus for No. Secondary evidence places August near 102–105, so exceeding 116 in September would require an approximately 11–14% monthly jump despite the advertiser-billing structural downshift. September had no major Amazon sales event, while October’s Prime Big Deal Days falls outside the measurement window; healthy aggregate retail spending is a modest counterweight but not Amazon-specific. I therefore shade YES slightly below the market to 12%, while retaining meaningful uncertainty because no primary-source August or September index value was retrieved.

gpt-5.6-sol

68% conf

Yes	11%
No	89%

The primary anchor is Kalshi's 13% YES price, which has fallen from roughly 19-20% amid reasonable trading volume. Secondary evidence places August's post-billing-change index around 102-105, so exceeding 116 in September would require an unusually large 11-14% monthly rebound despite the structural removal of advertiser credit-card payments. September had no flagship Amazon sales event, while October's Prime Big Deal Days falls outside the measurement window; healthy aggregate retail growth offers only a modest counterweight. I move slightly below the market to 11% because the structural and calendar evidence favors No, while retaining meaningful uncertainty because no primary-source August or September index value was retrieved.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

11% (60% confidence)

Yes: 11% No: 89%

Mean of 5 draws (0.10, 0.11, 0.11, 0.12, 0.11). Kalshi prices YES at 13% and has been drifting lower over both 7-day and 30-day windows, providing a clear No-leaning anchor. The Aug 1, 2026 advertiser billing change removed a large B2B credit-card stream, and the August contract's 'Above 105' collapsing from 64% to 8% implies an August print in the ~102-105 range; reaching >116 in September would require an implausible double-digit MoM jump with no promotional catalyst (Prime Big Deal Days is Oct 6-7, outside the window). The only contrary signal is a self-flagged simulated model built on fabricated inputs, which I discount heavily. I shade slightly below the market given the structural-break precedent and downward price trend, while leaving room for uncertainty since no primary Carbon Arc data was verified.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 127.2s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.