Scan: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-25	80%	83%	66%
2026-08-18	81%	82%	68%
2026-08-06	83%	84%	50%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news article_search gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Is Ali Khamenei currently alive and exercising de facto control of Iran, or has a succession already occurred or been triggered?
Has the Assembly of Experts formally named Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, or is there credible reporting of a succession process underway naming him or a rival (Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, leadership council)?
What is the actuarial probability that an 86-87-year-old man in Ali Khamenei's reported health dies or becomes incapacitated before Dec 31, 2026, and what does recent reporting say about his health?
Conditional on a vacancy, what share of credible analysts and insider reporting expect Mojtaba to be selected versus other candidates, and how strong is IRGC backing for him?
What is the probability that by end of 2026 the Islamic Republic's clerical leadership structure is displaced entirely (war with Israel/US, internal collapse, military takeover) such that no cleric is head of state?
What do the Polymarket sibling markets for other Iran head-of-state candidates (Ali Khamenei, Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, Pezeshkian, other) currently price, and does the set sum coherently?

Planner reasoning

This resolves on who de facto rules Iran on Dec 31, 2026. The key uncertainties are whether Ali Khamenei (aged ~87) is still alive and in control, whether a succession has already occurred or is imminent, and conditional on succession whether Mojtaba beats rival candidates (Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, a leadership council) or whether the regime itself is displaced. The Polymarket price and sibling candidate markets are the primary anchor; news must establish the current state of affairs since the event framing suggests succession may be live.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? - Current price (probability): 83.95% - 7-day price change: -0.80% - 30-day price change: +1.25% - Total volume: $6,501,030 (USD notional) - Price range: 71.95% - 85.20% - Data points: 91 days
polymarket_related	OK	0.5s	17	Polymarket search over 4 keyword(s), kept 17 matches. keyword 'Iran head of state': 8 markets \| keyword 'Khamenei': 1 markets \| keyword 'Iran supreme leader': 0 markets \| keyword 'Mojtaba': 8 markets
kalshi_related	OK	3.4s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Khamenei': no matches \| keyword 'Iran supreme leader': ok \| keyword 'Iran leader': ok
claude_news	OK	20.8s	5	Based on the research, here's what I found regarding Iran's leadership status heading into the question's close date (Dec 31, 2026): - Ali Khamenei was assassinated on 28 February 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes as part of the "2026 Iran war," with his death confirmed by the Iranian governm
article_search	OK	46.7s	20	Fetched 20 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=60d). 'Mojtaba Khamenei successor Supreme Leader': 10 articles \| 'Ali Khamenei health succession Assembly of Experts': 10 articles \| 'Iran regime stability Israel strikes Khamenei': 10 articles \| 'Iran next supreme leader candidates Arafi Hassan
gdelt_news	OK	146.3s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=30d). 'Mojtaba Khamenei': 10 hits \| 'Khamenei successor': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'Iran Assembly of Experts supreme leader': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	0.4s	4	Fetched 4 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	25.5s	0	## Key Findings Model structure: P(YES) = (1 − d) × h × s, where h = probability Ali Khamenei dies/becomes incapacitated within the ~10–12 month window, s = conditional probability Mojtaba is selected as successor given a vacancy, and d = probability the regime is displaced entirely (in which c

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7587 chars

# Current state Mojtaba Khamenei has formally held the title of Supreme Leader (Iran's de facto head of state per constitutional design) since March 8, 2026, elected by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Feb 28, 2026. The IRGC and civilian government (President Pezeshkian) publicly back him, and no rival has displaced him. However, he has not appeared publicly, on video, or via audio since taking office (200+ days as of mid-Sept 2026), with credible-but-unconfirmed reports he was wounded/possibly comatose in a strike; his exact health/functional status is the key uncertainty, not his formal/legal position. # Timeline of key events - 2026-02-28 — Ali Khamenei killed in joint US-Israeli airstrike on leadership compound (confirmed; Wikipedia, multiple outlets). - 2026-03-01 — Iranian government confirms Khamenei's death (confirmed; Wikipedia). - 2026-03-08 — Assembly of Experts elects Mojtaba Khamenei as 3rd Supreme Leader, defeating Hassan Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini; interim council (Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Mohseni-Eje'i, cleric Arafi) had governed in the interim (confirmed; Al Jazeera, Wikipedia "2026 Iranian supreme leader election"). - 2026-03-09 — IRGC publicly pledges allegiance to Mojtaba (confirmed; Al Jazeera). - 2026-07-05 — Ali Khamenei's funeral held in Tehran (reported; CNBC photo caption). - 2026-07-19 — FM Araghchi states he has not personally met Mojtaba since his appointment (reported; CNN). - 2026-08-21 — Iran tightens laws vs. foreign media contact; described as moving toward "North Koreanization" under Mojtaba (reported; CBS). - 2026-08-25 — Archival footage of Mojtaba released amid mounting health speculation (reported; GDELT/regional outlets). - 2026-08-26/27 — Trump says Mojtaba is "wounded, not dead" (reported; JPost, Siasat). - 2026-08-29 — Reports circulate that Mojtaba is in a coma, possibly unaware he's Supreme Leader (rumored; i24News). - 2026-09-12 — Pezeshkian states Mojtaba is "alive, doing his job," calls US reports propaganda (reported; Business Today). - 2026-09-15/16 — Mojtaba completes 200 days in office with zero public appearances (confirmed status quo; globalsecurity.org "Iran War Day 201"). # Event Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state (de facto governing authority) in Iran as of Dec 31, 2026, per consensus reporting on effective control? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct price was returned in this research pass (kalshi_related only surfaced unrelated leader-transition markets: Merz 43%, Tshisekedi 9.9%, SCOTUS 7%). **No native Kalshi YES price available to anchor on** — use Polymarket sibling market as primary cross-market anchor instead. # Resolution source Not run in this pass (no resolution_source tool output provided). # Sub-question answers 1. **Is Khamenei alive/in control, or has succession occurred?** — Succession has already occurred: Ali Khamenei was killed 2026-02-28; Mojtaba was named successor 2026-03-08 [Wikipedia, Al Jazeera]. Not a forward-looking hazard question anymore. 2. **Has Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba?** — Yes, formally elected 2026-03-08 over Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini, with IRGC pledging allegiance 2026-03-09 [Al Jazeera, Wikipedia]. 3. **Actuarial health question** — Moot given Ali Khamenei's death; the live health question now concerns Mojtaba himself, who was reportedly injured in the same strike and has been invisible for 200+ days, with unconfirmed coma rumors (i24News) countered by Trump ("wounded not dead") and Pezeshkian ("alive, doing his job") [multiple, Aug-Sep 2026]. 4. **Analyst/insider expectation of Mojtaba selection** — Already resolved historically: he won the Assembly vote and secured IRGC backing over Hassan Khomeini/Rouhani [Al Jazeera, Wikipedia election page]. 5. **Probability of total regime displacement (no cleric as head of state)** — Low per current evidence: despite 7+ months of war, NPR/Eurasia Group and CNBC report regime control "remains solid," no successful coup or civilian takeover; sibling Polymarket "No Head of State" market prices only 4.45% Yes. 6. **Polymarket sibling markets coherence** — Mojtaba 83.95%, No-Head-of-State 4.45%, Hassan Khomeini 0.25%, Reza Pahlavi 2.15%, others near-zero; sums to ~91% for named/no-leader outcomes, leaving ~9% residual (consistent with uncertainty over an unnamed challenger or resolution ambiguity). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Ali Khamenei killed 2026-02-28; Mojtaba elected 3rd Supreme Leader 2026-03-08. 2. [Al Jazeera] IRGC formally pledged allegiance to Mojtaba 2026-03-09. 3. [globalsecurity.org, day-201 update] As of 2026-09-15, Mojtaba has made zero public appearances since taking office. 4. [CNN, i24News, JPost] Persistent, unresolved reports of injury/possible coma, disputed by Trump and Pezeshkian. 5. [Wikipedia] $10M US bounty remains on Mojtaba; he is an active war target. 6. [Wikipedia/CNBC] IRGC operates with significant autonomy under Mojtaba's nominal authority; Pezeshkian runs civilian government but Supreme Leader retains formal supremacy. # Cross-market signals - Polymarket (this market): 83.95% YES, down from a 30-day high of 85.2%, drifting slightly lower over past week (-0.8%); $6.5M volume — very liquid, high-conviction market. - Polymarket "No Head of State end of 2026": 4.45% YES. - Polymarket "Iran leadership change by Dec 31": 14.5% YES (partially overlapping risk). - Polymarket "Mojtaba seen in public by Dec 31": only 19.5% YES — markets price high likelihood he remains unseen even if nominally still Supreme Leader. - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Vatanka (via NPR): regime control "remains solid" despite economic collapse and war damage; senior figures (Rezaei, Vahidi) reportedly want to end open-ended conflict, suggesting institutional consolidation, not fragmentation, around Mojtaba's nominal leadership. - Atlantic Council: Mojtaba seen as more hardline than his father, tied to extremist clerics — suggests IRGC/hardliner incentive to keep him as figurehead regardless of his personal incapacity. - Speculation persists he may be a symbolic figurehead while IRGC/Pezeshkian/Mohseni-Eje'i actually govern day-to-day — this raises resolution risk under the market's "de facto control" test even if he retains the title. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Strongly supported — already formally installed, IRGC-backed, no successful rival or displacement in 7+ months of war; Polymarket prices it at ~84%. - **No**: Supported by his prolonged invisibility (200+ days), unresolved health/coma rumors, and the market's strict "de facto control" (not just title) resolution standard — if he is incapacitated/dead and someone else (IRGC command, Pezeshkian, or a council) is shown to actually exercise control, this resolves No despite his formal title. # Gaps / unknowns - No independent confirmation of Mojtaba's actual health/cognitive status; all claims (coma vs. "doing his job") are contested and unverified. - Unclear who would resolve ambiguity if Mojtaba is alive but non-functional — market rules require "de facto" control, which is contestable. - No Kalshi-direct price obtained for direct anchor comparison. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price: 83.95% (primary available cross-market anchor, high volume). - Sibling "No Head of State" market: 4.45%, "seen in public by Dec 31": 19.5% — internal Polymarket ecosystem suggests ~80-85% consensus he remains nominal head of state even amid doubts about visibility/health.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

55% conf

Yes	83%
No	17%

Mojtaba Khamenei has formally held the Supreme Leader title since March 8, 2026 with public IRGC and government backing, and regime control is described as solid despite months of war, so the status quo strongly favors Yes with only ~3.5 months remaining. No Kalshi-direct price exists; the liquid Polymarket sibling ($6.5M volume) prices Yes at ~84%, with the 'No Head of State' market at only 4.45%, and I anchor on that. The main downside risks are his 200+ days of invisibility with unresolved injury/coma reports, his status as an active US bounty target in an ongoing war, and the market's 'de facto control' standard, which could resolve No if he is shown to be incapacitated while others govern. Balancing the strong institutional incentive to keep him as figurehead against genuine mortality and resolution-ambiguity risk, I land close to the market at 0.83.

claude-fable-5-1

58% conf

Yes	81%
No	19%

Mojtaba Khamenei has formally held the Supreme Leader title since March 8, 2026, with IRGC allegiance and Pezeshkian's public backing, and no rival has displaced him through 7+ months of war; the liquid Polymarket sibling market prices YES at ~84% and 'No Head of State' at only 4.45%. The main downside risks over the remaining ~3.5 months are his unverified health (200+ days with zero appearances, coma rumors, Trump's 'wounded not dead'), his status as an active US strike target, and the event's 'de facto governing authority' wording, which could resolve No if reporting converges on IRGC/council control despite his nominal title. Institutional incentives (hardliners preferring him as figurehead) argue strongly for continuity, so I land slightly below the market at 0.81 to reflect the resolution-ambiguity and mortality tail.

claude-fable-5-1

58% conf

Yes	82%
No	18%

Mojtaba Khamenei has formally held the Supreme Leader title since March 8, 2026 with IRGC allegiance and civilian government backing, and no rival has displaced him through 7+ months of war; regime control is described as 'solid' by analysts. With no Kalshi-direct price, the highly liquid Polymarket sibling at ~84% YES (and 'No Head of State' at only 4.45%) is the primary anchor. The main downside risks are his 200+ days of total invisibility with unresolved coma/injury rumors, an active $10M US bounty making him a live war target, and resolution ambiguity under a 'de facto control' standard if others visibly govern. I shade slightly below the market to reflect the genuine possibility that incapacity forces an announced succession before Dec 31, but the base case remains that hardliners keep him as the nominal leader.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	82%
No	18%

Mojtaba was formally elected Supreme Leader on March 8 and received the IRGC’s allegiance, so the institutional evidence strongly favors Yes. Regime control remains solid, no rival succession has occurred, and the low 4.45% sibling-market probability of having no head of state further supports continuity. I place Yes slightly below the 83.95% Polymarket anchor because his 200-plus days without a public appearance, possible severe incapacity, and the event’s de facto-control language create meaningful resolution risk even if he retains the title. Reports that he is alive and working partially offset the coma rumors, but neither side has independent verification.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	82%
No	18%

Mojtaba’s formal election on March 8 and subsequent IRGC allegiance point toward Yes because both the constitutional and coercive institutions recognize him, with no succession since. Regime-displacement evidence also points toward Yes because control reportedly remains solid and the sibling no-head-of-state market is only 4.45%. His 200-plus days without a public appearance and unresolved injury or coma reports point toward No because the event emphasizes de facto control rather than title alone. With no direct Kalshi price available, I anchor near the liquid Polymarket consensus of 83.95% Yes but reduce it to 82% for health and resolution ambiguity.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

82% (63% confidence)

Yes: 82% No: 18%

Mean of 5 draws (0.83, 0.81, 0.82, 0.82, 0.82). Mojtaba Khamenei has formally held the Supreme Leader title since March 8, 2026 with public IRGC and government backing, and regime control is described as solid despite months of war, so the status quo strongly favors Yes with only ~3.5 months remaining. No Kalshi-direct price exists; the liquid Polymarket sibling ($6.5M volume) prices Yes at ~84%, with the 'No Head of State' market at only 4.45%, and I anchor on that. The main downside risks are his 200+ days of invisibility with unresolved injury/coma reports, his status as an active US bounty target in an ongoing war, and the market's 'de facto control' standard, which could resolve No if he is shown to be incapacitated while others govern. Balancing the strong institutional incentive to keep him as figurehead against genuine mortality and resolution-ambiguity risk, I land close to the market at 0.83.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 232.6s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.